By Answerman

The Answerman has been participating in fantasy leagues since a good San Antonio team tanked a season after David Robinson got hurt and lost their way into a future by drafting Tim Duncan.

He is here to answer all your fantasy and relationship questions:

1st Year Fever writes:

Dear Answerman,

The rookies have been awesome these playoffs. Drew Gooden is a 20-10 guy, Tayshaun and Mehmet have big futures, Amare stood eye to eye with Duncan. Manu, and Giricek have been great. I bet I can sneak up on all the other teams next year with one superstar and these rookies.

What do you think?
-----------------------------------------------
Dear 1st Year-

You cannot base your projections for next year's fantasy draft on playoff stats. The regular season is a completely different beast than the playoffs.

Playoffs require you to play well in spurts. A player can get hot and become a hero after playing well for a very short period of time. e.g. How royal was Horry last year? Its like a first date, you only have to be "on" for like 3 hours on a first date and all of a sudden you are a nice, charming guy, who "unlike my last boyfriend" really listens.

The regular season, however, requires constant effort every day. Those who burn too hot will burn out quickly. Two years ago Van Exel led the league in scoring for the first month. By mid-season he was on Dallas' bench. However, guys who keep it even, Malone, Duncan, Garnett, can give the good production every night, with occassionally very good results. Its more like marriage, in that you bring it every day by keeping it even.

In the playoffs, coaches can prepare for each individual opponent. This makes it easier to create a game plan and execute it perfectly (2002 Kings v. Mavs). You can plan every minute of a first date. Right restaurant, right lighting, get a hair-cut, shave, buy a flower. Sure the girl may throw a curve ("I had a big lunch"), but an experienced ladies man ("Then let's start drinking") should be ready.

In the regular season, its something else every day. All a coach can do is prepare the team to play and ask them to react accordingly. In marriage its something else, every day. You cannot plan every minute. If your wife throws a curve ("The boiler broke. Plumber said its expensive"), all you can do is react accordingly ("let's start drinking").

Playoffs are played under a microscope. Everyone reacts and overreacts to everything. Analysts are the worst. A win and its the greatest team ever (how many people proclaimed the Spurs a dynasty after a 2nd round win) a loss and Rick Carlisle's job is on the line.

Listening to analysts talk after a game (especially Dr. Jack) is like telling your grandparents about a 1st date. If you tell them that you liked her they will proclaim a destined match before the 2nd date.

(Let me digress about ESPN's Dr. Jack Ramsey for a second. That guy changes his predictions after every game. You figure the guy must've seen 50,000 games in his life. He must've seen enough games to learn how to put them in perspective.)

The regular season and marriage move along pretty anonymously. The players/spouses have to bring the emotion every day because the media/ families won't do it for you.

In other words drafting a player based on playoff performance is like marrying someone after the 1st date. You have to look at regular season numbers and get to know the player to predict how the person will chug on a daily basis.

Amare, Gooden, and Manu are solid late round picks based on need. I would wait and see on Prince's minutes, Mehmet's rebounds, and Giricek's shot count.

...and no, trading players is not the equivalent of wife-swapping.

Any basketball questions, ask the Answerman@insidehoops.net


InsideHoops.com is the online leader in pro basketball coverage.