*New Adj. +/- Rankings. Best offensive/ defensive and overall players in the NBA.**

[Jinxed]

Here it is guys. The official top players in the NBA. This is based 70% on 2008-2009 rankings, but includes data from the last six years, with diminishing amount of value the farther back in time you go.

If you don't know what Adj +/- is, here is a refresher. It is a value that tracks how many points you help your team outscore the opponent by over the avg player. That means that if Kobe bryant has an adj. plus/minus of 6.00, he makes the Lakers 6 points better per 100 possessions. What's absolutely fantastic about Adj +/- is that it can separate your defensive and offensive contributions to your team.

For instance..Kevin Garnett is a very good offensive player with and offensive Adj +/- of 4.47. This means that if an avg player played PF for the Celtics instead of KG they may score 100 points per 100 possessions. But with KG, they will score 104.47. But KG's real contribution is defensive. He has an amazing defensive adj +/- of 8.74. Which means that opponents will score 8.74 points less per 100 possessions. In simple terms this means...

That if you took an average team (A) and put KG in at power forward and played against average team (B), KG's team would win 104-91 (supposing each team had 100 possessions). KG makes his team 13 points better, 4 at the offensive end, and 9 at the defensive end.

Adjusted plus/minus is quite simply, THE BEST STATISTIC WE HAVE FOR MEASURING HOW GOOD A PLAYER IS.

So here it is the top ten DEFENSIVE players in the NBA

1.Garnett, Kevin 8.74
2.Bogut, Andrew 8.21
3.Johnson, Amir 8.05
4.Hayes, Chuck 7.31
5.Przybilla, Joel 7.04
6.Iguodala, Andre 6.64
7.Hilario, Nene 6.56
8.Ming, Yao 5.7
9.Young, Thaddeus 5.7
10.Camby, Marcus 5.66

Noteables
11. Lamar Odom
12. Ron Artest
22. Tim Duncan (injury plagued)
35. Dwight Howard (overrated..defense is more than just blocks people!)
38. Shane Battier (overrated, but still good)
152. Kobe Bryant ("Kobe is a terrible off the ball defender"--Phil Jackson)

The best OFFENSIVE players in the NBA

1.Nash, Steve 11.28
2.Wade, Dwyane 10.66
3.James, LeBron 10.16
4.Paul, Chris 9.36
5.Redd, Michael 7.82
6.Anthony, Carmelo 7.73
7.Bryant, Kobe 7.57
8.Billups, Chauncey 7.36
9.Bosh, Chris 5.65
10.Carter, Vince 5.61

Steve Nash is the greatest offensive player we have seen since adj. plus minus has been calculated. Think of all the things he does that does not show up in the box score, running the offense, always making the perfect play, the hockey assist.




The Best OVERALL players in the NBA

Off Def Std Total
Team Player Minutes APM APM Err APM
1. Wade, Dwyane 3,048 10.66 2.96 1.16 13.61
2. Garnett, Kevin 1,642 4.47 8.74 1.07 13.21
3. James, LeBron 3,054 10.16 3.03 1.09 13.19
4. Paul, Chris 2,888 9.36 3.35 1.42 12.71
5. Nash, Steve 2,484 11.28 -2.45 1.11 8.83
6. Odom, Lamar 2,203 3.28 5.52 0.95 8.81
7. Iguodala, Andre 3,269 1.96 6.64 1.19 8.61
8. Lewis, Rashard 2,859 5.17 2.94 0.96 8.11
9. Ming, Yao 2,454 1.59 5.70 1.03 7.29
10. Kidd, Jason 2,814 3.31 3.35 0.98 6.66
11. Gasol, Pau 2,857 4.53 2.11 0.92 6.64
12. Nowitzki, Dirk 2,977 4.83 1.67 1.16 6.50
13. Young, Thaddeus 2,580 0.67 5.70 1.08 6.37
14. Bosh, Chris 2,884 5.65 0.54 1.10 6.19
15. Johnson, Amir 906 -1.86 8.05 1.47 6.18
16. Artest, Ron 2,343 0.83 5.01 0.93 5.83
17. Parker, Tony 2,386 4.48 1.29 1.18 5.77
18. Bryant, Kobe 2,824 7.57 -1.95 1.10 5.63
19. Jamison, Antawn 3,025 4.26 1.31 1.11 5.58
20. Duncan, Tim 2,454 1.81 3.60 1.22 5.40

Notables
23. Rudy Fernandez
28. Danilo Gallinari (he's going to be a STAR people)
29. Carmelo Anthony (his defense is greatly improving, what hurts him most is that six years worth of data were used, much of which when he was a terrible defender, he will rank higher this year.)
43. Brandon Roy (below avg. defender)
96. Dwight Howard (most overrated player in the league)

Other mentionable points...Manu Ginobili ranked 4th adj. plus minus in 2007-2008...however, he was injured for most of last season and therefore is not seen towards the top of the rankings. A healthy Manu, is one of the VERY best players in the NBA. TD ranked 3rd in 2008, his injuries also contributed to his slide.

Here is the data for you guys to look at
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AnGzTFTtSPx_dFVrZXdHNlNZQUJadllKUm1Ld294W kE&hl=en

[branslowski]

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

This>>Per...:roll:

[Abraham Lincoln]

The Best OVERALL players in the NBA

...

7. Iguodala, Andre 3,269 1.96 6.64 1.19 8.61

13. Young, Thaddeus 2,580 0.67 5.70 1.08 6.37

I wish. :lol

[branslowski]

I wish. :lol

He's alright though...Sixers kinda underrated to me...Seems like they have about 5-6 players who could drop 25pts on any givin night..

[Lyin]

("Kobe is a terrible off the ball defender"--Phil Jackson)

Making up quotes now? Kobe haters are PATHETIC.


LMAO @ Redd being a better offensive player than Melo and Kobe. Print this page out and slit your throat with it.

[Abraham Lincoln]

He's alright though...Sixers kinda underrated to me...Seems like they have about 5-6 players who could drop 25pts on any givin night..
Indeed, however talent can only mean so much in the NBA. New coach, new system, new PG, EB returning.

['Toine=MVP]

This is basically telling us who had the best seasons last year. 70% weight is a ton. I don't believe they are claiming this ranking is an expected ranking or a proper ranking of how good players have been over the last several years. One very good season last year more than makes up for 2 mediocre ones. One semi-good season last year greatly overshadows 2 amazing previous seasons.

I actually think Adj +/- is one of the better cumulative stats out there. But this particular list only really tells us about the 2008-2009 season, not how good players have been over the last several years.

[Jinxed]

Making up quotes now? Kobe haters are PATHETIC.


LMAO @ Redd being a better offensive player than Melo and Kobe. Print this page out and slit your throat with it.


Mad because your hero is only the third best player on his own team? It's ok, I don't blame you, it must be hard to think and shove the black mamba down your throat at the same time.

[Lyin]

Mad because your hero is only the third best player on his own team? It's ok, I don't blame you, it must be hard to think and shove the black mamba down your throat at the same time.

http://thebasketballoracle.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/kobe-bryant-finals-mvp-holds-the-larry-obrien-trophy-as-well-as-the-finals-mvp-award.jpg

[Jinxed]

This is basically telling us who had the best seasons last year. 70% weight is a ton. I don't believe they are claiming this ranking is an expected ranking or a proper ranking of how good players have been over the last several years. One very good season last year more than makes up for 2 mediocre ones. One semi-good season last year greatly overshadows 2 amazing previous seasons.

I actually think Adj +/- is one of the better cumulative stats out there. But this particular list only really tells us about the 2008-2009 season, not how good players have been over the last several years.

That's the point. To tell us who the best players in the NBA are right now, not over the last few years.

[RajonKGcelts]

All the Kobe fans are going to cry he's 17th lol

[nash4eva!gosuns]

All the Kobe fans are going to cry he's 17th lol
18th.

[magnax1]

I like how it gives manu his props, he does everything, and is easily one of the best 5 shooting guards in the league, but the rest are awfully iffy.

[DuMa]

wow both lists dogging dwight quite badly.

[ElPigto]

wow both lists dogging dwight quite badly.

And they are praising Amir Johnson. :lol

[bdreason]

What a terrible statistic.

['Toine=MVP]

That's the point. To tell us who the best players in the NBA are right now, not over the last few years.

it (mainly) only tells us who the "best" players were last year, not who *ARE* the best players.

i don't know where pierce falls on this list, but over the past 6 seasons, according to adjusted +/-, he has been elite in 07-08 (6th overall), 06-07 (9th overall), 04-05 (1st overall), and 03-04 (16th overall). he was very good, but short of elite in last year and in 05-06 (though he has very good stats that year i guess he wasn't able to impact the team as much as he did in others).

so it comes down to a judgment call, whether you think someone like Pierce is really significantly worse than he was last year when he was rated 6th overall or 4 years ago when he was rated 1st overall. i don't think any objective follower of the game would say he is any worse, though some could fairly argue he was never truly #1 either. the years when he was 6th-15th is probably a fair reflection of how good he actually was, and how good he actually is. Most subjective top 10 lists had him as borderline top 10 player each of those years, and his adjusted +/- backs that up.

however this stat really doesn't show who the *best* players are really either. it tells us the impact they had on scoring in a given year. over time, that should show us who are the best in the game, but with changing team dynamics, and random factors, no individual season +/- can be given too much weight.

[Jinxed]

What a terrible statistic.

why? do you have an actual legitimate problem with how the statistic is calculated, or is your problem that the results don't match your biases of how you would like them to come out.

[DukeDelonte13]

i think this isn't as good as PER. Im not saying it cause i'm a Lebron fan, but the PER list is a lot more of what a current NBA fan would expect.

70% of last season is just kinda weird.

['Toine=MVP]

Good thread, but this stat needs more than just a one year sample to show how GOOD players really are. It is somewhat like measuring clutchness in MLB (although more Adj +/- is a little more stable). In any given year, some random player will get a huge percentage of his hits or HR in high leverage situations, but that doesn't necessarily mean he is the type of player that is good at raising his level of play in those situations. Over time, if a player, shows he is a top clutch hitter, or someone who fails in the clutch a lot, the label becomes more credible.

Now, i am not saying this stats is the same as measuring clutchness. i am just pointing out that it is the type of stat where there can be a lot of fluctuation, and unusual down years or up years shouldn't be weighted too heavily.

[Jinxed]

i think this isn't as good as PER. Im not saying it cause i'm a Lebron fan, but the PER list is a lot more of what a current NBA fan would expect.

70% of last season is just kinda weird.

Not as good as PER??? PER doesn't even rank DEFENSE!! that's HALF THE GAME!

What about setting screens, defending the pick and roll, running the offense...all those little things. Adj plus minus MEASURES THAT...

How about this? What the current NBA fan would EXPECT is BIASED and wrong! Why? Because offense gets most of the MARKETING attention (sportscenter highlights etc) and because we have been raised on traditional box score stats which DO NOT mention defense. Box score stats are bullshiiite.

[branslowski]

why? do you have an actual legitimate problem with how the statistic is calculated, or is your problem that the results don't match your biases of how you would like them to come out.

So you think Amir Johnson is better than Kobe, Duncan, and Dwight?...

Right...:ohwell:

[Jinxed]

So you think Amir Johnson is better than Kobe, Duncan, and Dwight?...

Right...:ohwell:

First off, you find ONE anomaly (the one player who has played less than 1,000 minutes , and decide to throw the whole house down? do you disagree with KG, Dwade and LBJ at the top?

Amir Johnson performed better in his 14 minutes per game than Kobe or Dwight did. Would he keep this up over 35 minutes? I don't know. But in 14 minutes he's damn good. Supposing he could...

My question to you is HOW ISN'T?

An average team A with Amir Johnson, playing an average team B with Kobe Bryant beats them.

You see, since Amir Johnson is a bad offensive player, his team will score 98 points instead of 100, but since Kobe is a bad defender, he'll give up two points on d so Amir's team is back at 100 points scored. But playing his lockdown defense Amir's defense will cause his opponents team to score 8 less points than normal. Which means Kobe's average team would normally score 92 points, but since they have Kobe, they will score 7 points above their average meaning they will score 99 points per 100 possessions.

Team A of four average players and Amir Johnson at power forward would beat Team B of four average players and Kobe Bryant at sg 100-99.

So once again how is Amir not better?

[noob cake]

I didn't know Bogut was a defensive beast.

Chuck Hayes on the other hand is the greatest post defender in league right now.

[branslowski]

So once again how is Amir not better?

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Your a f*cking idiot if you think Amir Johnson>>>Kobe, Duncan, Dwight...This statistic is God awful...Dwight 98th best player?...WTF?..

You know this sh!t is straight ass...And your trying so hard to defend it becuase you posted it, but your failing so hard...You think you writing a bunch of Bullsh!t can justify Amir>>Duncan, Dwight?....:oldlol: No..

You must be a Wade Homer...Find a list where he's on top and suck it till it's dry..

[gts]

Using plus and minus rankings as a formula base to equate individual contribution is mess because that is a team stat all in all...

lets say you have a starter who plays alot of minutes, plays well into the second quarter when the other starters are on the bench and he's playing along lesser bench players..his plus or minus will drop because he's playing with scrubs.. it's not that players fault, it's a team problem yet he gets saddled with the numbers... that's why plus or minus is not a great stat other than comparing players on the same team.. system coaches rotations even injuries to other players have way to much an effect on it to be using it to compare players from other teams...

nice try but a failed matrix overall

[ElPigto]

First off, you find ONE anomaly (the one player who has played less than 1,000 minutes , and decide to throw the whole house down? do you disagree with KG, Dwade and LBJ at the top?

Amir Johnson performed better in his 14 minutes per game than Kobe or Dwight did. Would he keep this up over 35 minutes? I don't know. But in 14 minutes he's damn good. Supposing he could...

My question to you is HOW ISN'T?

An average team A with Amir Johnson, playing an average team B with Kobe Bryant beats them.

You see, since Amir Johnson is a bad offensive player, his team will score 98 points instead of 100, but since Kobe is a bad defender, he'll give up two points on d so Amir's team is back at 100 points scored. But playing his lockdown defense Amir's defense will cause his opponents team to score 8 less points than normal. Which means Kobe's average team would normally score 92 points, but since they have Kobe, they will score 7 points above their average meaning they will score 99 points per 100 possessions.

Team A of four average players and Amir Johnson at power forward would beat Team B of four average players and Kobe Bryant at sg 100-99.

So once again how is Amir not better?

Although I see what you are saying, we are comparing 14 minutes to someone who plays 38 minutes. There isn't much else to say about that. We adjust everyones game for fourteen minutes, I bet Amir is no longer such a great player as compared to the rest.

[Jinxed]

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Your a f*cking idiot if you think Amir Johnson>>>Kobe, Duncan, Dwight...This statistic is God awful...Dwight 98th best player?...WTF?..

You know this sh!t is straight ass...And your trying so hard to defend it becuase you posted it, but your failing so hard...You think you writing a bunch of Bullsh!t can justify Amir>>Duncan, Dwight?....:oldlol: No..

You must be a Wade Homer...Find a list where he's on top and suck it till it's dry..

You are either 15 years old or and idiot. Probably both.

I have some questions for you, answer them honestly.

Is defense as important as offense? Yes or no? Do you agree with everyone else that defense is HALF the game?

Amir Johnson is the 3rd best defender in the NBA

He has a rating of 8.05 on defense alone. He is better at defense than Kobe is at offense.

Understand?

[Jinxed]

Using plus and minus rankings as a formula base to equate individual contribution is mess because that is a team stat all in all...

lets say you have a starter who plays alot of minutes, plays well into the second quarter when the other starters are on the bench and he's playing along lesser bench players..his plus or minus will drop because he's playing with scrubs.. it's not that players fault, it's a team problem yet he gets saddled with the numbers... that's why plus or minus is not a great stat other than comparing players on the same team.. system coaches rotations even injuries to other players have way to much an effect on it to be using it to compare players from other teams...

nice try but a failed matrix overall


This is ADJUSTED plus/minus. I assume you have no understanding of what that means.. so i'll quote Ilardi so you can understand..

"The plus-minus stat doesn

[branslowski]

You are either 15 years old or and idiot. Probably both.

I have some questions for you, answer them honestly.

Is defense as important as offense? Yes or no? Do you agree with everyone else that defense is HALF the game?

Amir Johnson is the 3rd best defender in the NBA

He has a rating of 8.05 on defense alone. He is better at defense than Kobe is at offense.

Understand?

No sh!t defense is Half the game. And lets leave Kobe out of this for a minute.

How in the hell is Amir Johnson a Better OVERAL player than Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan?

And he is no where near as good defender as Duncan and Dwight.

So before you start questioning my age and calling me the idiot...Take a view at your dumbass post/opions of Dwight as 98th best player, and Amir>>Duncan, and get back to me...Answer this honestly...Do you really think Amir is better than Duncan and Dwight?

And don't answer this with another batch of useless words circling the question...This is Yes or No.

[gts]

[QUOTE=Jinxed]This is ADJUSTED plus/minus. I assume you have no understanding of what that means.. so i'll quote Ilardi so you can understand..

"The plus-minus stat doesn

[KenneBell]

What a terrible statistic.
This is an accurate assessment.

[Jinxed]

So before you start questioning my age and calling me the idiot...Take a view at your dumbass post/opions of Dwight as 98th best player, and Amir>>Duncan, and get back to me...Answer this honestly...Do you really think Amir is better than Duncan and Dwight?

And don't answer this with another batch of useless words circling the question...This is Yes or No.

TD was injured last year, when he was last healthy, in 2008, he ranked 3rd in Adj +/-. So I think TD is better than Amir Johnson.

Dwight Howard is a good defender, but not great..he ranks 35th in the league in Defense. The mistake people make when thinking Dhoward is so great at defense is that all they do is look at the two box score defensive stats we have. Blocks and steals, they see that Dwight leads the league in blocks and plays on a good defensive team and decide that Dwight is the best defender in the league. But they only think that because they don't realize that we have good defensive stats, they just aren't posted in a normal box score. If they did look at these stats (defensive plus/minus) they would see that Dwight is a good, but not elite defender. You are smart enough to know that box score stats are not all there is too playing defense...you have to deny the person the ball, make him take bad shots, get him out of position, help rotate on D...etc

Is he better than Amir? Here's what I said before, Amir only plays 14 minutes a game, and most of his contribution is on defense. When you only play 14 minutes a game you can play HARD and go all out because you don't have to worry about getting tired. And where does playing hard and going all out help you the most? Defense of course. Now if Amir had to play 35 minutes a game would we see his defense go down, because he has to reserve his energy? Probably, would it go down so much that it would be lower than Dwight Howards? I don't know.

[Jinxed]

i know exactly what it is.. it still is a stat that is too heavily influenced by team play or coaching desicions... that's why it's a lousy matrix for a formula that compares players of other teams.. it's only good for comparing players on the same team

No you don't know what it is, because your first post went in detail explaining how plus/minus works but without talking about adj. plus/minus at all. If you do understand how it works, please explained to me how they do the regression analysis....I expect crickets..because you don't know. You are just post hoc trying to save face.

Other than that, tell me how it is worse than say PPG for comparing players on opposite teams. Is PPG not influenced by coaching decisions or team play?

[1~Gibson~1]

103 - Dwight Howard
104 - Chris Quinn

:lol

[branslowski]

Is he better than Amir? Here's what I said before, Amir only plays 14 minutes a game, and most of his contribution is on defense. When you only play 14 minutes a game you can play HARD and go all out because you don't have to worry about getting tired. And where does playing hard and going all out help you the most? Defense of course. Now if Amir had to play 35 minutes a game would we see his defense go down, because he has to reserve his energy? Probably, would it go down so much that it would be lower than Dwight Howards? I don't know.

:violin: :violin: :violin: :violin:

Race track ass...:violin:

Done with this dumb sh!t...Amir Johnson isn't in the same class, better yet School as Duncan, Dwight, Kobe as Overal Players...F*cking low IQ Morons.

[twolvesfan]

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

This>>Per...:roll:
BRIAND CARDINAL IS THE 20TH BEST PLAYER IN THE NBA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:rockon: :rockon: :rockon: :rockon: :rockon: CHAMPIONSHIP HERE WE COME

[branslowski]

Melo the Early MVP Canidate and who is playing the Best Ball in the league so far....29th Best player in the league...:roll: :roll: :roll:

[branslowski]

BRIAND CARDINAL IS THE 20TH BEST PLAYER IN THE NBA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:rockon: :rockon: :rockon: :rockon: :rockon: CHAMPIONSHIP HERE WE COME

Briand>>>>Melo easily...:roll: :roll: :roll:

This ranking formula made me LMFAO Today...:applause:

[1~Gibson~1]

nvm

[Rafael Delaget]

The crazy thing about Amir Johnson is that his adjusted defensive +/- is good, AND his defensive "box score" stats are good. With most players it's either one or the other.

[1~Gibson~1]

Amir Johnson > Kobe

:oldlol:

[Jinxed]

Melo the Early MVP Canidate and who is playing the Best Ball in the league so far....29th Best player in the league...:roll: :roll: :roll:

Carmelo is playing the best ball in the league so far, or the best OFFENSIVE ball in the league?

How's he doing on defense? You don't know do you? Carmelo Anthony league's 5th best offensive player. The league's 163rd best defensive player.

Considering he basically played matador Defense the last six years is it that hard to believe he'd be ranked 29th.

Like I said before his D is improving, he should be top 15 this year.

[Jinxed]

Amir Johnson > Kobe

:oldlol:

pick a starter...say over 2000 minutes that you disagree with...

[branslowski]

Carmelo is playing the best ball in the league so far, or the best OFFENSIVE ball in the league?

How's he doing on defense? You don't know do you? Carmelo Anthony league's 5th best offensive player. The league's 163rd best defensive player.Considering he basically played matador Defense the last six years is it that hard to believe he'd be ranked 29th.

Like I said before his D is improving, he should be top 15 this year.

Who say's this?...This dumbass formula stat?...Trust me, you will be the only loon taking these rankings serious...Well, you and SirCharles...:roll:

List that has Amir Johnson>>>Duncan

Braind Cardinal>>>Melo

Thadeus Young>>>Kobe

Aren't in my book of Factual Stats to trust...:no:

[Bigsmoke]

Andrew Bogut was the 2nd best defender? :lol

[gts]

Who say's this?...This dumbass formula stat?...Trust me, you will be the only loon taking these rankings serious...Well, you and SirCharles...:roll:

List that has Amir Johnson>>>Duncan

Braind Cardinal>>>Melo

Thadeus Young>>>Kobe

Aren't in my book of Factual Stats to trust...:no:it's the same stat 82 games has been trying to shove down our throats for two years now..it's a ok stat but it has never passed the smell test as you and others have pointed out, when reality is factored in..lol

[Jinxed]

...

[Jinxed]

Who say's this?...This dumbass formula stat?...Trust me, you will be the only loon taking these rankings serious...Well, you and SirCharles...:roll:

List that has Amir Johnson>>>Duncan

Braind Cardinal>>>Melo

Thadeus Young>>>Kobe

Aren't in my book of Factual Stats to trust...:no:



Yea, just me.

Even though tons of NBA teams have hired Adj +/- experts as their personal staticians. Maybe you should read this article...written in 2004

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...-1462r/?page=3


Donnie Walsh, Mark Cuban, the Houston Rockets...amongst many others all have hired Adj +/- staticians...all the insiders know this is the GOAT stat..

jump on board bud, or get left in the dust.

[yobore]

[QUOTE=Rafael Delaget

[Disaprine]

:roll: kobe at number 18, thank god no one takes this sh*t seriously.

[Kombo]

For the sake of eliminating outliers, it may be beneficial to only look at players who average 28+ minutes a game.

Amir Johnson is actually a good defender, but he played only 14 minutes because he fouls like crazy. This obviously cannot be sustained over an entire game.

Despite all the weird things that come up, I do find it as an effective tool in comparing players. Should it be the only tool? Of course not. Imagine of someone in finance only using one ratio... it would be foolish.

[KG5MVP]

it's no surprise that KG is always top on statistics like these

[Raider007]

152. Kobe Bryant ("Kobe is a terrible off the ball defender"--Phil Jackson)



I call BS. Show the link

[Kblaze8855]

JJ Reddick is better than Jason Terry and Monta ellis. Amare is worse than Will Bynum, Dragic, and Gortat. Chris Quinn is better than Caron Butler. Mbah a Moute is better than dwight Howard. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are worse than Matt Bonner. Amir Johnson is over 200 spots better than Kevin MArtin, Al Horford, and carlos Boozer. Jamario Moon and Brad Miller are better than Melo. Brian Cardinal and Tim Duncan are equals....Thaddeus Young is better than the last 3 finals MVPs...


This stat like alll other supposed all encompassing stats for the lazy with a hundred things its supporters try to explain away fails when you get down to common sense.

If you have to dismiss dozens and dozens of exceptions just let the **** go and use your eyes.

My eyes and my common sense tell me that Matt Bonner does not play basketball better than Tony Parker even if the spurs outscore their opponents by more when hes in the game. He simply does not. It is absurd to even discuss...as are probably 200 things on this list.

What exactly is wrong with deciding who plays the best by evaluating skills and how they are applied in game? Require too much thinking, observation, and leave too much room for argument?

Me? I dont mind not having a concrete answer when the alternative is a concrete but factually incorrect conclusion. Like say....Kobe being the 4th best player on the Lakers.

At some point you just gotta go with your common sense and drop this bull****.

[Butters]

JJ Reddick is better than Jason Terry and Monta ellis. Amare is worse than Will Bynum, Dragic, and Gortat. Chris Quinn is better than Caron Butler. Mbah a Moute is better than dwight Howard. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are worse than Matt Bonner. Amir Johnson is over 200 spots better than Kevin MArtin, Al Horford, and carlos Boozer. Jamario Moon and Brad Miller are better than Melo. Brian Cardinal and Tim Duncan are equals....Thaddeus Young is better than the last 3 finals MVPs...


This stat like alll other supposed all encompassing stats for the lazy with a hundred things its supporters try to explain away fails when you get down to common sense.

If you have to dismiss dozens and dozens of exceptions just let the **** go and use your eyes.

My eyes and my common sense tell me that Matt Bonner does not play basketball better than Tony Parker even if the spurs outscore their opponents by more when hes in the game. He simply does not. It is absurd to even discuss...as are probably 200 things on this list.

What exactly is wrong with deciding who plays the best by evaluating skills and how they are applied in game? Require too much thinking, observation, and leave too much room for argument?

Me? I dont mind not having a concrete answer when the alternative is a concrete but factually incorrect conclusion. Like say....Kobe being the 4th best player on the Lakers.

At some point you just gotta go with your common sense and drop this bull****.

Everything this guy said.

[BlazersDozen]

Amir Johnson top 20?

[Lyoto15]

This actually doesn't say anything about a players defense or offense.
Not if you are taking into account guys like amir or whoever.

All this stats shows you is the difference in number with or without a certain guy, This doesn't make them better then some of the leagues proven stars.

Put me on the lakers for 14 minutes each night. If my team goes on a 20 - 0 run in those 14 minutes I will be +20...but both you and I know I didnt contribute to that ****..so your stats are not worth much if you ask me.

[Jinxed]

This actually doesn't say anything about a players defense or offense.
Not if you are taking into account guys like amir or whoever.

All this stats shows you is the difference in number with or without a certain guy, This doesn't make them better then some of the leagues proven stars.

Put me on the lakers for 14 minutes each night. If my team goes on a 20 - 0 run in those 14 minutes I will be +20...but both you and I know I didnt contribute to that ****..so your stats are not worth much if you ask me.

Well it's a good thing I'm not asking you because you clearly don't understand how the math works. its ADJUSTED..ADJUSTED...ADJUSTED...for who you play with. As an example if you are on the Lakers, and you played 14 minutes and your team went on a 20-0 run, but then they take you out and put in an avg player like Luke Walton, and they go on..say..a 14-14 stretch...ok that's one time..but if that happened EVERY SINGLE night..you said 'each night'..then you must be a freaking great player..there is something you are doing on the court..even if it's staying out of the way of other good players and locking your man down on D..because the opposing team never scores..something is going on.

[Kblaze8855]

It really wouldnt matter who you ask. Nobody but I suppose you thinks it matters. Even the people you mentioned who hired people to track it....you really think they are picking 100+ people over Dwight or signing Dragic to a max contract like they would Amare? Of course not. Its nothing more than trivia and one extra little irrelevant umber.

Just because it tracks total team performance doesnt mean it accounts for everything because who scores and when tells you little or nothing of how it happened.

Its just a way to disregard basketball in favor of spreadsheets because a lot of people would rather argue math and the merits of their favorite formulas than skills.

Nobody on this planet with more than 18 brain cells think this is an even somewhat accurate ranking of players when you have stars in the 200s and role players better than Kobe.

Every dumb number includes a bunch of little exceptions like that that when added up expose them for what they are. Basketball avoiding number porn.

[Jinxed]

JJ Reddick is better than Jason Terry and Monta ellis. Amare is worse than Will Bynum, Dragic, and Gortat. Chris Quinn is better than Caron Butler. Mbah a Moute is better than dwight Howard. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are worse than Matt Bonner. Amir Johnson is over 200 spots better than Kevin MArtin, Al Horford, and carlos Boozer. Jamario Moon and Brad Miller are better than Melo. Brian Cardinal and Tim Duncan are equals....Thaddeus Young is better than the last 3 finals MVPs...


My eyes and my common sense tell me that Matt Bonner does not play basketball better than Tony Parker even if the spurs outscore their opponents by more when hes in the game. He simply does not. It is absurd to even discuss...as are probably 200 things on this list.

What exactly is wrong with deciding who plays the best by evaluating skills and how they are applied in game? Require too much thinking, observation, and leave too much room for argument?

At some point you just gotta go with your common sense and drop this bull****.

Tony Parker is ranked 17th, Matt Bonner 53rd...

Here is what is wrong by evaluating skills..You don't know all the skills, you could probably tell me with reasonable accuracy the 20 best shooters in the leage...but could you tell me the top 20 players in the league at defending the pick and roll? The reason Greece beat the USA at the world championships was because Melo and Lebron had no idea how to defend the pick and roll and Greece exploited that all night long. Who are the top 20 players in the league at setting an off the ball screen? What about the 20 players in the league at spacing the floor or rotating on weak side defense? YOU HAVE NO CLUE. Yet all of these skills are important to winning basketball games.

Your evaluation of player's ability relies on a VERY LIMITED amount of skills..mostly the skills seen on Sportscenter highlights..a for profit company OUT to brainwash you into watching their shows and adding to their bottom line. Nike, TNT, ESPN, and the NBA do this by showing you exciting highlights..a fancy dunk by Dwight for example that impresses you..how many great pick and roll defenses have you seen on Sportscenter?..and then tell you that Dwight is one of the best players in the league so that you will tune in and watch him play..just like little sheep.

But this isn't reality..who ESPN tells you to think is good, is not necessarily good..

Because you have no idea..who are the most skilled NBA players at

Off the ball defense
operating pick and roll
running the offense as designed
knowing when to switch on D and when to stay on your man
hustling back on D
Denying your man the ball
being in the right place for the outlet pass
boxing out guards so your big man can get the rebound easier
not allowing the opposing big man to get good position down low
not letting the opposing guard get the ball or shot on the court where he wants to shoot
the hockey assist pass
Etc etc etc

Yet all of these ARE SKILLS. They all contribute immensely to the score of the game. And you have NO IDEA which players in the NBA are good at these things. No clue. Yet adj. plus/minus can account for IT ALL!! Do you realize how amazing that is? Maybe your ignorance as to why Brad Miller is better than Dwight Howard is because you aren't aware that Brad is far better than Dwight at denying his man the ball, or not allowing the opposing big man to establish position down low...etc...all those key skills that people who play basketball at a high level get drilled into them by their coaches...BECAUSE THEY MATTER...

[NuggetsFan]

Doesn't matter how you explain it any person who watches the NBA knows that that list is just flat out incorrect.

[LutherHeadJob]

The stats are majorly flawed, but it does make sense.

Energy guys and junk time scrubs (Like Amir Johnson) perform better in their minutes than someone like Dwight, but energy guys can't sustain that performance for long periods of time, hence why players like Amir Johnson ride the bench and Dwight is tearing up the game.

But on the other hand these stats (or any stats) don't tell you who the players played on, Amir Johnson playing against victory cigars will always have higher +/- compared to someone like Battier who plays on the Kobes and Lebrons of the league. And just because you are effective in the time you on on the court doesn't make you a better player than someone else. Common sense prevails here.

This is just my understanding, correct me if i am wrong.


AND BOGUT IS ****TTTTT AT BUCKS!! FREE HIMM





Off the ball defense
operating pick and roll
running the offense as designed
knowing when to switch on D and when to stay on your man
hustling back on D
Denying your man the ball
being in the right place for the outlet pass
boxing out guards so your big man can get the rebound easier
not allowing the opposing big man to get good position down low
not letting the opposing guard get the ball or shot on the court where he wants to shoot
the hockey assist pass
Etc etc etc



Battier would probs be one of the best in the league at most of the above, but see where he is ranked hmm

[mamba24]

well this is clearly a hate thread...one way or another...didnt know kobe was that bad...4th or 5th ok but 18th...nice hate man...

anyway...i dont need to convince morons...so keep your stats...we take the trophy next june and you can bump him down to 30...hahahah

[Kblaze8855]

Ok so....im unaware of what boxing out, off the ball defense and offense, and hustle are.....fine(idiotic...but...**** it). I didnt watch the Chambers/KJ suns and Oakley/Jordan Bulls live off outlet passing. I didnt watch Oakley throw touchdowns to Jordan for one dribble scores while hearing commentators compare his delivery to Sid Luckman. I didnt watch Mark Price and Brad Daugherty operate the pick and roll 30 times a night nor do I watch Chris Paul do it now. Ive never seen Joe Dumars force Jordan to bad spots on the court or seen Derek Harper hold a guy by the hip and slide him off his spot. Ive never seen Trenton Hassells ball denial. I never noticed the Nelson Mavs exploit the secondary break with Dirk trailing and using the pass before the pass to make the defense commit and clear the floor for him to step into a shot. Ive never seen John Starks hustle. Ive never seen Kirk Hinrich hold Ray Allen to like 10-30 shooting off fighting through screens and never giving him a set shot. Fine. Ive never watched a game of basketball and seen something ESPN didnt shout at me about. we have settled that.

But you know what else? No calculator ever watched it either.

And if you are stupid enough to believe that plus/minus accounts for all those things because how often the ball goes in the basket while you are on offense or defense is a matter of one mans ability at a time.....fine.

But you arent convincing anyone its anything but simple minded denial of reality.

Brad Miller is better than Dwight Howard in your world. And I guess Nene was better than Tim Duncan in his prime (http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm). Luckily your world exists only in your head and your T-83 and nobody anywhere...is taking Brad over Dwight because common sense eventually has to factor in.

Once you throw out common sense, logic, and the ability to play basketball while assuming calculators have a better idea of the leagues best off the ball players than humans....fine. This makes a lot of sense.

If not for that little "Needing to beat ones brains out for it to make sense" problem you would really have something going here.

In the future you may want to present this information with a complimentary brick so your hopeful followers can beat themselves senseless to increase the chances they accept the information. Maybe try to get their credit card numbers while they are woozy and order a bunch of Shamwows on them to help soak up the blood from your unique brand of basketball class.

['Toine=MVP]

This actually doesn't say anything about a players defense or offense.
Not if you are taking into account guys like amir or whoever.

All this stats shows you is the difference in number with or without a certain guy, This doesn't make them better then some of the leagues proven stars.

Put me on the lakers for 14 minutes each night. If my team goes on a 20 - 0 run in those 14 minutes I will be +20...but both you and I know I didnt contribute to that ****..so your stats are not worth much if you ask me.


There is ZERO chance that the Lakers would go on a 20-0 with you in the lineup. But if the Lakers were much much better with you in the lineup than when Kobe was in the lineup, you would clearly be the better player. And if the Lakers never gave up a point when you were on the floor over the course of a whole season of regular minutes, where you played with different lineups, you would certainly be the best player of all time.

[sbw19]

The problem with basketball is unlike chess for example it isn't a perfect information game when recorded on paper as stats/play-by-play log.

In chess, all the actions done are perfectly recorded allowing for an accurate analysis of each piece's every action and its effect on the game and hence an accurate rating of each piece in every game played.

The same cannot be said about basketball, since a boxscore does not record all the actions, leaving out a huge amount of variables and throwing them out the window, which would frequently result in an incomplete and illogical analysis since the data recorded does not include all the actions done by the players.

[Lyoto15]

Well it's a good thing I'm not asking you because you clearly don't understand how the math works. its ADJUSTED..ADJUSTED...ADJUSTED...for who you play with. As an example if you are on the Lakers, and you played 14 minutes and your team went on a 20-0 run, but then they take you out and put in an avg player like Luke Walton, and they go on..say..a 14-14 stretch...ok that's one time..but if that happened EVERY SINGLE night..you said 'each night'..then you must be a freaking great player..there is something you are doing on the court..even if it's staying out of the way of other good players and locking your man down on D..because the opposing team never scores..something is going on.

I still dont agree that this points out the greatness of a player.

What if i happen to be a guy who only gets garbage minutes while my team still is building the lead.. I just cant see how it shows me being a great player.

[mamba24]

lol at this guy for trying to be some math genius...show me the backdrop of your stats. you cant put reality in a box. If you could i can pretty much sum your life as such...


Geek = no life = sad = no girls = no punani = sad = no life = geek.

round circle hmmm...says something about you...

[Cermet]

i am surprized Brandon Roy is only 46. I mean for him thats pretty low.


Are all Lakers fans so agressive and crazy and full of ****. Seriously. I want to see one normal lakers fan. We probably don't see the normal ones because they are well...NORMAL.. and don't shove Kobey in to a topic every freaking time. Saying ohh yeah he won 4 nba titles beat that. I am really concerned about the mental state of most laker fans.
Oh and i am not a Lakers fan actually now that ariza is gone(punk who almost paralizes Rudy Ferandez and then even argues about it and wants a fight) i like them. I mean i lover P. Gasol , Artest is respectable then Fisher is a clutch , Walton and all the others. Great guys. I only hate Kobey.

[gts]

Well it's a good thing I'm not asking you because you clearly don't understand how the math works. its ADJUSTED..ADJUSTED...ADJUSTED...for who you play with. As an example if you are on the Lakers, and you played 14 minutes and your team went on a 20-0 run, but then they take you out and put in an avg player like Luke Walton, and they go on..say..a 14-14 stretch...ok that's one time..but if that happened EVERY SINGLE night..you said 'each night'..then you must be a freaking great player..there is something you are doing on the court..even if it's staying out of the way of other good players and locking your man down on D..because the opposing team never scores..something is going on.adjust it some more because it's way off when trying to show who the better players are in the NBA..

look at that list and ask yourself honestly if you think that's right...
numbers can and often do lie when used in the wrong context or adjusted to show a preconcieved outcome.

[TheGreatDeraj]

One word: GTFO

[Biddy77]

I'm willing to believe this, and I think you guys should, too.

Since I'm also a selfless human being who likes to see others happy, here's what I'm willing to do for you...

Renegotiate Rudy's contract so Rudy + Oden is a match for Dwight Howard, and make a trade.

I'm willing to suffer through having 43. Brandon Roy as The Man on this team with 98. Dwight Howard being overrated as our starting C.




It should be painfully obvious that this is a great move for Orlando. Rudy is the motherf**king MAN. He'll get you the ring Dwight couldn't get you last season, guaranteed. After all.... you came close with player 98, and Rudy is number 23. I'm doing this for YOU, Orlando. Just because I'm a nice guy. Don't delay.

PS... I'll throw in a Sham-Wow.

[justin43]

Those stats made me: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Wow. I haven't laugh so hard in a long time. What horribly flawed stats! I guess this is what happens when you just look at stats. Non-basic Stats like per and this mess can be made to fit the agenda of anyone. Basic Stats like FG% don't always tell the whole story. This is a perfect example of why stats should never be the only way to evaluate a player.

@Jinxed
Kobe fans are not the only ones who think this list is garbage. This lists evaluated other players poorly as well as stated by other posters.

[Jinxed]

Notice not a single person on this thread has made ANY single argument against HOW THE STATISTIC WORKS...they just don't like how the results came out because it goes against their biased intuitions.

[Jinxed]

In the future you may want to present this information with a complimentary brick so your hopeful followers can beat themselves senseless to increase the chances they accept the information. Maybe try to get their credit card numbers while they are woozy and order a bunch of Shamwows on them to help soak up the blood from your unique brand of basketball class.

You may know how Hinrich shuts down Ray Allen by fighting through screens, but you couldn't tell me who are the best 20 players in the NBA at fighting through screens. Nor could I pick out a random player..say..Ramon Sessions and ask you where he ranks in the league in off the ball defending and have you be able to tell me with any accuracy. You see what I'm saying..

Also Mark Cuban has paid over a million dollars for Adj. Plus/minus staticians, and so have lots of other NBA teams like the Houston Rockets. Ask Shane Battier what kind of stats he uses to help him guard the opposing players..

This stat is the future of measuring a player's worth. Just ask Donnie Walsh. If you're not jumping on board you are being left behind.

[Pharcyde]

Notice not a single person on this thread has made ANY single argument against HOW THE STATISTIC WORKS...they just don't like how the results came out because it goes against their biased intuitions.
I pointed some things out in another thread but all you said was the same thing over and over.

[KenneBell]

basketball reference says that the Nuggets are better with Melo off the court according to the +/- stat.

Laughable at best.

[branslowski]

Ok so....im unaware of what boxing out, off the ball defense and offense, and hustle are.....fine(idiotic...but...**** it). I didnt watch the Chambers/KJ suns and Oakley/Jordan Bulls live off outlet passing. I didnt watch Oakley throw touchdowns to Jordan for one dribble scores while hearing commentators compare his delivery to Sid Luckman. I didnt watch Mark Price and Brad Daugherty operate the pick and roll 30 times a night nor do I watch Chris Paul do it now. Ive never seen Joe Dumars force Jordan to bad spots on the court or seen Derek Harper hold a guy by the hip and slide him off his spot. Ive never seen Trenton Hassells ball denial. I never noticed the Nelson Mavs exploit the secondary break with Dirk trailing and using the pass before the pass to make the defense commit and clear the floor for him to step into a shot. Ive never seen John Starks hustle. Ive never seen Kirk Hinrich hold Ray Allen to like 10-30 shooting off fighting through screens and never giving him a set shot. Fine. Ive never watched a game of basketball and seen something ESPN didnt shout at me about. we have settled that.

But you know what else? No calculator ever watched it either.

And if you are stupid enough to believe that plus/minus accounts for all those things because how often the ball goes in the basket while you are on offense or defense is a matter of one mans ability at a time.....fine.

But you arent convincing anyone its anything but simple minded denial of reality.

Brad Miller is better than Dwight Howard in your world. And I guess Nene was better than Tim Duncan in his prime (http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm). Luckily your world exists only in your head and your T-83 and nobody anywhere...is taking Brad over Dwight because common sense eventually has to factor in.

Once you throw out common sense, logic, and the ability to play basketball while assuming calculators have a better idea of the leagues best off the ball players than humans....fine. This makes a lot of sense.

If not for that little "Needing to beat ones brains out for it to make sense" problem you would really have something going here.

In the future you may want to present this information with a complimentary brick so your hopeful followers can beat themselves senseless to increase the chances they accept the information. Maybe try to get their credit card numbers while they are woozy and order a bunch of Shamwows on them to help soak up the blood from your unique brand of basketball class.

Great post...But your definitly wasting your time with this Moron...He knows Amir Johnson is a Better Overal Player than Dwight..He also doesn't even respond to those points clearly, he goes into some question circling BS about who pops gum better on the bench per camera shot...Dude is just trying to justify his find...

[sbw19]

Notice not a single person on this thread has made ANY single argument against HOW THE STATISTIC WORKS...they just don't like how the results came out because it goes against their biased intuitions.


The problem with basketball is unlike chess for example it isn't a perfect information game when recorded on paper as stats/play-by-play log.

In chess, all the actions done are perfectly recorded allowing for an accurate analysis of each piece's every action and its effect on the game and hence an accurate rating of each piece in every game played.

The same cannot be said about basketball, since a boxscore does not record all the actions, leaving out a huge amount of variables and throwing them out the window, which would frequently result in an incomplete and illogical analysis since the data recorded does not include all the actions done by the players.

Care to respond?

['Toine=MVP]

The main problems i have with adj +/- is (1) using a 1 year sample (or even a 70% 1 year sample) because there is a lot of fluctuation from year to year and it is very difficult to assign a large percentage of that fluctuation to actual differences in effectiveness; and (2) it shouldn't ever be looked at to determine who the best players are - the point is just seeing who played the most effective minutes within a particular team dynamic.

It is definitely something that should not be ignored, but one year's worth of data (even with 30% coming from parts of 4 or 5 other years), has very little value.

[Jinxed]

I pointed some things out in another thread but all you said was the same thing over and over.

None of your critiques even made sense. You have no idea how the statistic works.

[Jinxed]

Care to respond?

I agree with it. Chess is perfectly coded for statistics, baseball is another sport that is made for statistical analysis. Basketball if far more difficult. Adj. +/- is not perfect, but it by FAAAR the best we have so far.

[Jinxed]

The main problems i have with adj +/- is (1) using a 1 year sample (or even a 70% 1 year sample) because there is a lot of fluctuation from year to year and it is very difficult to assign a large percentage of that fluctuation to actual differences in effectiveness; and (2) it shouldn't ever be looked at to determine who the best players are - the point is just seeing who played the most effective minutes within a particular team dynamic.

It is definitely something that should not be ignored, but one year's worth of data (even with 30% coming from parts of 4 or 5 other years), has very little value.

So if you were to judge a player..how much percentage would you assign to past years. I think the 70%..breakdown is perfect...If i'm assessing the value of Shaq on my team TODAY, I'm not going to judge him on the avg of his last 10 years..I'm taking his output of the last few years..weighing most heavily on last year.

['Toine=MVP]

So if you were to judge a player..how much percentage would you assign to past years. I think the 70%..breakdown is perfect...If i'm assessing the value of Shaq on my team TODAY, I'm not going to judge him on the avg of his last 10 years..I'm taking his output of the last few years..weighing most heavily on last year.

well, i agree that it can get messy. but there is way too much fluctuations from year to year to rely on any one year as the main support. i'd say 30% 08/09, 25% 07/08, 20% 06/07, 15% 05/06, 10% 04/05. that is just a rough example.

normally i would not say such a system would be necessary, but it is clear that the sample size of one season's data is not sufficient to give a good sense of how good a player is. my pierce example from before points out the odd fluctuations. i'm sure there are many many similar examples.

basically, no young player can really be evaluated properly using this system. i think you actually NEED at least 3 years or so worth of data to give a good sense of a player's ability. that is especially true because a player might find himself in a team dynamic situation not especially suited to his abilities in a particular season - which of course is not adjusted for - since a given player can thrive (relative to another EQUALLY good player) in one situation and underperform (relative to that same equally good player) in another situation.

the "flaw" in the system is that team dynamics play a huge part in how effective a player can be in helping that team perform well. the same player can be a huge benefit to some top teams and not a big benefit to other top teams. the same player can be a big benefit to some bad team and not so much to some other bad teams. the only thing "adjusted" is basically whether or not you are on a bad or good team (or more precisely whether or not you play a lot of minutes with good or bad players against good or bad players). it doesn't adjust for the specific team dynamic and specific fit for that player in that system.

[Kblaze8855]

You may know how Hinrich shuts down Ray Allen by fighting through screens, but you couldn't tell me who are the best 20 players in the NBA at fighting through screens. Nor could I pick out a random player..say..Ramon Sessions and ask you where he ranks in the league in off the ball defending and have you be able to tell me with any accuracy. You see what I'm saying..

Also Mark Cuban has paid over a million dollars for Adj. Plus/minus staticians, and so have lots of other NBA teams like the Houston Rockets. Ask Shane Battier what kind of stats he uses to help him guard the opposing players..

This stat is the future of measuring a player's worth. Just ask Donnie Walsh. If you're not jumping on board you are being left behind.

And im sure Cuban and walsh would take nearly a hundred players over Dwight Howard. Im just...positive they put that much stock into your bull****. Im gonna put this as simply as possible just to see if you are too gone from reality(and unwilling to tell the obvious truth) for me to continue to acknowledge....

Based on this number all players on team A are better than the player at the same position on team B. The question I pose to you is this...

These teams are assembled....

Team A

Daniel Gibson
Iggy
Brian Cardinal
Amir Johnson
Brad Miller


Team B

Deron Williams
Kobe
Melo
Tim Duncan
Amare

Which team is likely to win the most games in an NBA season provided with an average bench and decent coaching?


And I was gonna do sixth men and include Durant and Chris Douglas roberts...but with Durant being the 319th best player in the NBA I figured his presence would make your decision too easy.

[TheGreatDeraj]

Can't wait to see his response to that. :roll:

[JustinJDW]

Lol at the OP saying Tim Duncan is injury plauged. He is either biased or stupid. Tim Duncan has only missed 15 games in the past four seasons COMBINED!

Yeah, the guy is just swallowed by injuries....

[Jinxed]

And im sure Cuban and walsh would take nearly a hundred players over Dwight Howard. Im just...positive they put that much stock into your bull****. Im gonna put this as simply as possible just to see if you are too gone from reality(and unwilling to tell the obvious truth) for me to continue to acknowledge....

Based on this number all players on team A are better than the player at the same position on team B. The question I pose to you is this...

These teams are assembled....

Team A

Daniel Gibson
Iggy
Brian Cardinal
Amir Johnson
Brad Miller


Team B

Deron Williams
Kobe
Melo
Tim Duncan
Amare

Which team is likely to win the most games in an NBA season provided with an average bench and decent coaching?


And I was gonna do sixth men and include Durant and Chris Douglas roberts...but with Durant being the 319th best player in the NBA I figured his presence would make your decision too easy.


I've already explained this earlier in the thread. I don't know why it hasn't sunk in. You can't compare the output of a bench player (hustle guy) vs. a starter. Why? Because a hustle guy can go all out for the 15 minutes that he is on the floor and change the dynamic of a game. A starter needs to pace himself. That is probably the reason you see guys like Amir Johnson and Brian Cardinal with such great ratings. However, if they were forced to play 35 minutes a game they would need to pace themselves and their impact would go down. This is common sense and I've already pointed this out many times. Do you understand this? Yes or no?

How about you pick a team of players that has each played >2000 minutes last season and get back to me. If you're only gripe with the system is that it ranks hustle players highly..that's pretty weak.

Also, I don't think you understand what this is a measure of...it is a measure of performance..not ability...performance WITHIN the system that he plays. Taking someone out of the system and putting him a new one like your fantasy team of Melo, Kobe, etc..changes the dynamic. This is a measure of how well someone has performed WITHIN their team's system.

To put it in Mark Cuban's own words..

[QUOTE]One more point, these numbers don

[Jinxed]

Lol at the OP saying Tim Duncan is injury plauged. He is either biased or stupid. Tim Duncan has only missed 15 games in the past four seasons COMBINED!

Yeah, the guy is just swallowed by injuries....

You're right TD never had planter fascitis, it was all a big ruse. He played through the injuries you moron.

That combined with aging is why TD's numbers went down last year. "I've slowed down with age"-Tim Duncan.

[Finger Roll]

cocaine is a hell of a drug

[TheGreatDeraj]

I've already explained this earlier in the thread. I don't know why it hasn't sunk in. You can't compare the output of a bench player (hustle guy) vs. a starter. Why? Because a hustle guy can go all out for the 15 minutes that he is on the floor and change the dynamic of a game. A starter needs to pace himself. That is probably the reason you see guys like Amir Johnson and Brian Cardinal with such great ratings. However, if they were forced to play 35 minutes a game they would need to pace themselves and their impact would go down. This is common sense and I've already pointed this out many times. Do you understand this? Yes or no?

How about you pick a team of players that has each played >2000 minutes last season and get back to me. If you're only gripe with the system is that it ranks hustle players highly..that's pretty weak.

Also, I don't think you understand what this is a measure of...it is a measure of performance..not ability...performance WITHIN the system that he plays. Taking someone out of the system and putting him a new one like your fantasy team of Melo, Kobe, etc..changes the dynamic. This is a measure of how well someone has performed WITHIN their team's system.

To put it in Mark Cuban's own words..

So by your own admission(If this stat even determines anything at all) it's not a stat to judge the best players, it judges the players based on their fit within their system.

It cannot determine best offensive/defensive players based on what you just said.

[Jinxed]

So by your own admission(If this stat even determines anything at all) it's not a stat to judge the best players, it judges the players based on their fit within their system.

It cannot determine best offensive/defensive players based on what you just said.

It depends what you mean by 'best player'. If you are judged by your performance on the court, than it does tell you who the best player is. But that doesn't mean that under some other system, you couldn't be more or less productive.

For example...Steve Nash is clearly a better player under a run and gun type of system. His skills are just meant for an exciting open court game. If Steve Nash played on the slow down-tempo half court system of the Spurs, I'm sure he would be less productive. Likewise, if Tim Duncan played for D'antoni you would probably see a drop in his production because his skill set is more suited to being fed the ball in the post rather than running up and down on fast breaks.

This stat cannot tell you how good Steve Nash would be if he played on the Spurs, however it does tell you how good Steve Nash is on the Suns. Steve Nash on the Suns was the 5th best player in the league last year.

[vert48]

I would like to thank the OP for proving, once and for all, that statistics are meaningless.

['Toine=MVP]

So by your own admission(If this stat even determines anything at all) it's not a stat to judge the best players, it judges the players based on their fit within their system.

It cannot determine best offensive/defensive players based on what you just said.

I think that is almost what he meant. It judges who were the most important pieces to team success in terms of scoring margin. If Amir Johnson was ranked higher than Kobe Bryant, it doesn't mean that it would be a good idea for the Lakers to trade Bryant for Johnson, but it does mean that if the Pistons lost Johnson and replaced him with an average player it would have been worse for the scoring margin of the Pistons than it would have been for the scoring margin of the Lakers if 14.7 of Kobe's minutes were given to an average player.

It does not judge simply how well a player is suited for a particular system, but rather the actual impact a particular player has on a particular system. Johnson's per minute had a greater impact on the Pistons' scoring margin than Kobe did per minute on the Lakers' scoring margin. Of course, Kobe played a lot more minutes, so his impact overall was much greater.

Plus this only looks at effect on scoring margin and does not take into account last minute heroics or impact in close games or important games.

['Toine=MVP]

Also this further shows why one year (or virtual one year) samples are way to small. Team dynamics can change a lot from year to year, but over the long haul the vast majority of players will find themselves in situations where they can be very productive.

[Jinxed]

Plus this only looks at effect on scoring margin and does not take into account last minute heroics or impact in close games or important games.

The Mavericks system actually accounted for that..with something they called impact rating.

http://blogmaverick.com/?s=jason+kidd

[Kblaze8855]

So you are telling me that its accurate measure of performance once you disregard that several hundred players will be ranked waaaaaaaaaaaaaay off of where common sense and actual basketball playing say they should be ranked. So...once you only consider players who meet certian criteria you pulled out of your ass and disregard that this system makes many players who suck appear great and several all NBA first teamers who are virtual HOF locks out to be worse than them....it makes sense?

Im being told its an accurate way to rank players once you throw out half the league and disregard that the list is factually wrong in hundreds of places?

All we are missing now is you in a velvet suit with a fake moustache telling us "4% of the time...its right every time...."

Get the **** outta here. And as for Mark Cubans words...feel free to offer him Kobe or Iggy. Both play heavy minutes. Iggy supposedly better. I wonder who he would rather add to the Mavs.....

[Jinxed]

Also this further shows why one year (or virtual one year) samples are way to small. Team dynamics can change a lot from year to year, but over the long haul the vast majority of players will find themselves in situations where they can be very productive.

I don't know if I made this clear, but those numbers are supposed to be the best players in 2008-2009....meaning here are the most productive players of 2008-2009, and but they used six years of data on a diminishing scale to help lower the error score.

[vert48]

but they used six years of data on a diminishing scale to help lower the error score.And yet, they still got it completely wrong.

[Jinxed]

So you are telling me that its accurate measure of performance once you disregard that several hundred players will be ranked waaaaaaaaaaaaaay off of where common sense and actual basketball playing say they should be ranked. So...once you only consider players who meet certian criteria you pulled out of your ass and disregard that this system makes many players who suck appear great and several all NBA first teamers who are virtual HOF locks out to be worse than them....it makes sense?

Im being told its an accurate way to rank players once you throw out half the league and disregard that the list is factually wrong in hundreds of places?

All we are missing now is you in a velvet suit with a fake moustache telling us "4% of the time...its right every time...."

Get the **** outta here. And as for Mark Cubans words...feel free to offer him Kobe or Iggy. Both play heavy minutes. Iggy supposedly better. I wonder who he would rather add to the Mavs.....

Your only problem with the stat is that you don't understand how it works and what it is saying.

NOBODY says AMIR JOHNSON is better than Kobe Bryant. GET THIS THROUGH YOUR HEAD. That's not what this stat is trying to say..what this stat IS SAYING is that within the 14 minutes that Amir Johnson plays, he helps his team win more than Kobe does during his 40 minutes. It's not hard to understand why. Amir is a HUSTLE guy who can lock down his man on D for 14 minutes and go all out. If he had to play 40 minutes a game like Kobe, he wouldn't be able to do this.


All I asked was that you compare starters to starters..and no I didn't just *pull that criteria out of my ass*..most times, these staticians only report players who have played more than a certain number of minutes. I just gave you a link to the data that had everyone in it, in case you found it interesting. Alternatively you could look at www.basketballvalue.com they will only report players who play more than the median amount of minutes. They also report a constant up-to-date rating of adj plus/minus, although they only use two years of data and not six, so there is more error involved.

Really man, you are just backpedalling and trying to save your ego at this point.

Are you done? Do you have any legit criticisms? Are you at least in your own mind(if not to me) willing to give these stats their fair shake?

[Jinxed]

And yet, they still got it completely wrong.

Wrong, based on what? Offer any evidence. Of course not. You have none. No one can argue with these statistics.

[vert48]

Wrong, based on what? Offer any evidence. Of course not. You have none. No one can argue with these statistics.I have the collective opinion of everyone that watched a game last year.
NO ONE, would say that Rudy Fernandez had a better 08-09, or is a better player than Brandon Roy. The fact that Rudy, according to those stats, was a better overall player last year, proves that the conclusion drawn from those stats is ridiculous.

[LutherHeadJob]

He is not saying Rudy is a better player though, god what is wrong with the American education system.

[vert48]

He is not saying Rudy is a better player though, god what is wrong with the American education system.Nothing wrong with my education. I just read the post, and it clearly states "The Best OVERALL players in the NBA". So, he is not saying that Rudy is a better player, he is saying he is a better overall player. I get it. :hammerhead:

The Best OVERALL players in the NBA

Off Def Std Total
Team Player Minutes APM APM Err APM
1. Wade, Dwyane 3,048 10.66 2.96 1.16 13.61
2. Garnett, Kevin 1,642 4.47 8.74 1.07 13.21
3. James, LeBron 3,054 10.16 3.03 1.09 13.19
4. Paul, Chris 2,888 9.36 3.35 1.42 12.71
5. Nash, Steve 2,484 11.28 -2.45 1.11 8.83
6. Odom, Lamar 2,203 3.28 5.52 0.95 8.81
7. Iguodala, Andre 3,269 1.96 6.64 1.19 8.61
8. Lewis, Rashard 2,859 5.17 2.94 0.96 8.11
9. Ming, Yao 2,454 1.59 5.70 1.03 7.29
10. Kidd, Jason 2,814 3.31 3.35 0.98 6.66
11. Gasol, Pau 2,857 4.53 2.11 0.92 6.64
12. Nowitzki, Dirk 2,977 4.83 1.67 1.16 6.50
13. Young, Thaddeus 2,580 0.67 5.70 1.08 6.37
14. Bosh, Chris 2,884 5.65 0.54 1.10 6.19
15. Johnson, Amir 906 -1.86 8.05 1.47 6.18
16. Artest, Ron 2,343 0.83 5.01 0.93 5.83
17. Parker, Tony 2,386 4.48 1.29 1.18 5.77
18. Bryant, Kobe 2,824 7.57 -1.95 1.10 5.63
19. Jamison, Antawn 3,025 4.26 1.31 1.11 5.58
20. Duncan, Tim 2,454 1.81 3.60 1.22 5.40

Notables
23. Rudy Fernandez
28. Danilo Gallinari (he's going to be a STAR people)
29. Carmelo Anthony (his defense is greatly improving, what hurts him most is that six years worth of data were used, much of which when he was a terrible defender, he will rank higher this year.)
43. Brandon Roy (below avg. defender)
96. Dwight Howard (most overrated player in the league)

[LutherHeadJob]

I think it is just really badly worded, the stats clearly measures the effectivness of a player in the minutes he is given, unelss the OP is on crack i don't see how anyone can use these stats to judge if a player is better than another. (So i will assume he just worded it really badly)

The stats are useless, everyone knows energy guys ALWAYS perform better in their minutes than stars who have to stay out there and contribute for 35+ minutes.

But i agree Bogut is one the best defenders in the league :lol

[vert48]

I think it is just really badly worded, the stats clearly measures the effectivness of a player in the minutes he is given, unelss the OP is on crack i don't see how anyone can use these stats to judge if a player is better than another. (So i will assume he just worded it really badly)

The stats are useless, everyone knows energy guys ALWAYS perform better in their minutes than stars who have to stay out there and contribute for 35+ minutes.

But i agree Bogut is one the best defenders in the league :lolThis is

[Jinxed]

Overall- as in OFFENSIVE ADJ. PLUS/MINUS + DEFENSIVE ADJ +/-

Notice how the stats were broken down into offense and defense? Overall simply means off + Def.

This just further proves my point that the only criticism of the stat comes from people who don't understand it.

[vert48]

I think it is just really badly worded, the stats clearly measures the effectivness of a player in the minutes he is given, unelss the OP is on crack i don't see how anyone can use these stats to judge if a player is better than another. (So i will assume he just worded it really badly)

The stats are useless, everyone knows energy guys ALWAYS perform better in their minutes than stars who have to stay out there and contribute for 35+ minutes.

But i agree Bogut is one the best defenders in the league :lolAs your tutor, I can see that education is coming along.

[LutherHeadJob]

As your tutor, I can see that education is coming along.

Good for you champ, you must be really proud of yourself.

[vert48]

Overall- as in OFFENSIVE ADJ. PLUS/MINUS + DEFENSIVE ADJ +/-

Notice how the stats were broken down into offense and defense? Overall simply means off + Def.

This just further proves my point that the only criticism of the stat comes from people who don't understand it.Then you should say that. Saying "The Best OVERALL players in the NBA" means best overall players, not "Player with the Best OVERALL OFFENSIVE ADJ. PLUS/MINUS + DEFENSIVE ADJ +/-".

[vert48]

Good for you champ, you must be really proud of yourself.As your teacher, I do take some pride, but I am really more proud of you.

[LutherHeadJob]

As your teacher, I do take some pride, but I am really more proud of you.

Well aren't you special.

[TheGreatDeraj]

It depends what you mean by 'best player'. If you are judged by your performance on the court, than it does tell you who the best player is. But that doesn't mean that under some other system, you couldn't be more or less productive.

For example...Steve Nash is clearly a better player under a run and gun type of system. His skills are just meant for an exciting open court game. If Steve Nash played on the slow down-tempo half court system of the Spurs, I'm sure he would be less productive. Likewise, if Tim Duncan played for D'antoni you would probably see a drop in his production because his skill set is more suited to being fed the ball in the post rather than running up and down on fast breaks.

This stat cannot tell you how good Steve Nash would be if he played on the Spurs, however it does tell you how good Steve Nash is on the Suns. Steve Nash on the Suns was the 5th best player in the league last year.


I think that is almost what he meant. It judges who were the most important pieces to team success in terms of scoring margin. If Amir Johnson was ranked higher than Kobe Bryant, it doesn't mean that it would be a good idea for the Lakers to trade Bryant for Johnson, but it does mean that if the Pistons lost Johnson and replaced him with an average player it would have been worse for the scoring margin of the Pistons than it would have been for the scoring margin of the Lakers if 14.7 of Kobe's minutes were given to an average player.

It does not judge simply how well a player is suited for a particular system, but rather the actual impact a particular player has on a particular system. Johnson's per minute had a greater impact on the Pistons' scoring margin than Kobe did per minute on the Lakers' scoring margin. Of course, Kobe played a lot more minutes, so his impact overall was much greater.

Plus this only looks at effect on scoring margin and does not take into account last minute heroics or impact in close games or important games.

First, what 70% did they take? Did they exclude the very good and very bad games, or what?

Well how he fits in with with the system will affect how much of an impact he has for his team. That's one of the main flaws in this approach is it attempts to isolate the players from his role in his team and within the style of the team. You can't do it.

I don't understand how people can believe the numbers when the say they say Jamison has a larger impact, or even on par with, than Tim Duncan. It's pretty clear to anyone who's watched basketball the past 5 years that Duncan's impact is/was greater than Jamison's. How many games did Jamison win last year? Duncan? Or Lamar Odom over Pau Gasol? As a Laker fan who has watched nearly every Laker game, that is laughable. Lakers win % with Gasol is much higher than with Odom. I think it's like 68% with Gasol. Gasols impact is so much greater, but not in this stat, just like many other examples...Both of those examples they have similar minutes as well. Stat might be right sometimes but it's off way too much.

[Kblaze8855]

Your only problem with the stat is that you don't understand how it works and what it is saying.

It isnt complicated and you have shown nothing suggesting a deeper understanding of anything. Only a greater willingness to disregard reality in favor of numbers.


NOBODY says AMIR JOHNSON is better than Kobe Bryant. GET THIS THROUGH YOUR HEAD. That's not what this stat is trying to say..what this stat IS SAYING is that within the 14 minutes that Amir Johnson plays, he helps his team win more than Kobe does during his 40 minutes. It's not hard to understand why. Amir is a HUSTLE guy who can lock down his man on D for 14 minutes and go all out. If he had to play 40 minutes a game like Kobe, he wouldn't be able to do this.

And how does that(incorrect) conclusion tell who the best players are exactly? I see "Best offensive/defensive and overall players in the NBA" if you in fact means "Who for small stretches of time is a part of outscoring the opponent" why call it best players?



All I asked was that you compare starters to starters..and no I didn't just *pull that criteria out of my ass*..most times, these staticians only report players who have played more than a certain number of minutes. I just gave you a link to the data that had everyone in it, in case you found it interesting. Alternatively you could look at www.basketballvalue.com they will only report players who play more than the median amount of minutes. They also report a constant up-to-date rating of adj plus/minus, although they only use two years of data and not six, so there is more error involved.

You asked me to compare like players to like players after a giving a list of the supposed best players that does no such thing....yourself invalidating the list. You ask me to modify its findings and disregard half of its conclusions then say its the best judge of players?


Really man, you are just backpedalling and trying to save your ego at this point.

Save my ego from who? Does anyone but you disagree with me? you think at this point I give a damn what you think of me? And you want "backpedalling"? Look at you going from "Brad Miller is better than Dwight Howard" with claims that anyone who disagrees does so because of their bias and assumptions to saying its not saying the clearly inferior players are better even when ranked higher.


Are you done? Do you have any legit criticisms? Are you at least in your own mind(if not to me) willing to give these stats their fair shake?

This stat may do more than any other to make it obvious that the right number can be used to rank anyone anywhere. It is the definition of stat porn idiocy.

[Jinxed]

First, what 70% did they take? Did they exclude the very good and very bad games, or what?

Well how he fits in with with the system will affect how much of an impact he has for his team. That's one of the main flaws in this approach is it attempts to isolate the players from his role in his team and within the style of the team. You can't do it.

I don't understand how people can believe the numbers when the say they say Jamison has a larger impact, or even on par with, than Tim Duncan. It's pretty clear to anyone who's watched basketball the past 5 years that Duncan's impact is/was greater than Jamison's. How many games did Jamison win last year? Duncan? Or Lamar Odom over Pau Gasol? As a Laker fan who has watched nearly every Laker game, that is laughable. Lakers win % with Gasol is much higher than with Odom. I think it's like 68% with Gasol. Gasols impact is so much greater, but not in this stat, just like many other examples...Both of those examples they have similar minutes as well. Stat might be right sometimes but it's off way too much.

As per the 70%..for adj. plus/minus to work out, with a little amount of error (we are talking about rather complex math here) you need more than just one year's worth of data. So this stat takes in the last six years worth of data, however in tallying up the final scores 2008-2009 was given 70% of the weight, while the previous 5 years combined for 30% (scaled).

And this stat DOES NOT try try and isolate a person from his role on his team. That's what I've been reiterating over and over again. This stat is a measure of how good a player performs within his role on the team, and says very little about how good he would be on another team in a different dynamic. It's people like Kblaze who try and do this (because they don't understand how it works) and that's where they go wrong.


As Per Tim Duncan..he has the 2nd highest adj plus/minus (APM) of the decade behind KG. You are right anyone watching basketball the last 5 years knows that TD is better than Jamison..and even in 2007-2008 TD had the 3rd best APM in the league..however last year in 2008-2009 TD wasn't as effective as he is aging, and has slowed down (says so himself) and he was playing through injuries.

[Jinxed]

This stat may do more than any other to make it obvious that the right number can be used to rank anyone anywhere. It is the definition of stat porn idiocy.

Where do you think you are getting by saying 'disregard it's findings' or other vagaries , who do you think you are fooling? We both know the truth. You made a stupid mistake. You tried to compare a bench player to a starter. I called you out. I said show me a team of starters that you disagree with their rankings. You have made about 5 posts since then and haven't been able to do it.

This is the very definition of getting owned, and then trying to save face by posting nonsense.

And Dwight Howard is nothing more than a slightly above average player in the NBA

[Kblaze8855]

List has Amare in the 200s, Dwight near 100, guys like Kevin Martin waaaaaaaay down the list. Durant in the 300s meaning he performs like an average 10th man I guess? It wouldnt be hard to compare guys who play big minutes to that and show it to be foolish. It has Iggy over Kobe, Odom over Dirk, and Jamison, Lewis, and Artest over Tim Duncan. There is no end to the ways to ridicule this lists findings no matter who you wish to use. But if you are delusional enough to say things like Dwight is just slightly above average of what use is it showing you the obvious? You either see it and pretend you dont or you are blind to it.

Im not sure ive ever seen such a combo of obvious and inarguable incorrectness paired with such confidence. You are as wrong as wrong can be....face virtual consensus on the fact that you are wrong....and speak as if you are right and it can be proven.

Its almost impressive.

[DTD]

Why are you making up quotes and attributing them to Phil Jackson? Yet you want people to take you seriously...

[DTD]

List has Amare in the 200s, Dwight near 100, guys like Kevin Martin waaaaaaaay down the list. Durant in the 300s meaning he performs like an average 10th man I guess? It wouldnt be hard to compare guys who play big minutes to that and show it to be foolish. It has Iggy over Kobe, Odom over Dirk, and Jamison, Lewis, and Artest over Tim Duncan. There is no end to the ways to ridicule this lists findings no matter who you wish to use. But if you are delusional enough to say things like Dwight is just slightly above average of what use is it showing you the obvious? You either see it and pretend you dont or you are blind to it.

Im not sure ive ever seen such a combo of obvious and inarguable incorrectness paired with such confidence. You are as wrong as wrong can be....face virtual consensus on the fact that you are wrong....and speak as if you are right and it can be proven.

Its almost impressive.

:oldlol: Good stuff.

[sbw19]

It seems to me I'd be willing to use these stats only to compare players to themselves over the years (and not to each other) and only in terms of output in relation to circumstance.

Sides, even the basic stats don't necessarily tell us absolute truths (with the exception of FT%), let alone one that factors in and relies on so many possibly misleading ones.

[vert48]

I stand by my earlier post in this thread.
I would like to thank the OP for proving, once and for all, that statistics are meaningless.

[Jinxed]

List has Amare in the 200s, Dwight near 100, guys like Kevin Martin waaaaaaaay down the list. Durant in the 300s meaning he performs like an average 10th man I guess? It wouldnt be hard to compare guys who play big minutes to that and show it to be foolish. It has Iggy over Kobe, Odom over Dirk, and Jamison, Lewis, and Artest over Tim Duncan. There is no end to the ways to ridicule this lists findings no matter who you wish to use. But if you are delusional enough to say things like Dwight is just slightly above average of what use is it showing you the obvious? You either see it and pretend you dont or you are blind to it.

Im not sure ive ever seen such a combo of obvious and inarguable incorrectness paired with such confidence. You are as wrong as wrong can be....face virtual consensus on the fact that you are wrong....and speak as if you are right and it can be proven.

Its almost impressive.

Once again, listen to how you are arguing. You are arguing against the RESULTS, which you don't like. Not the way the statistic is computed. You do this because you are not intelligent enough to either understand the statistic is computed, nor are you intelligent enough to realize how to make a proper argument. So let me teach you.

If you want to argue that Kevin Durant DOESN'T suck, then you have to say..this statistic DOESN'T capture so and so aspect of his game..the statistic is flawed because it doesn't account for X,Y,and Z...

but you can't nor have ever done that. You can't just say, "I think Kevin Durant is good, and the statistic says he's bad. Therefore the statistic must be wrong! Because I can't be!"...errr..sorry, that's not a proper argument.

Kevin Durant sucks. Most people know it now. There's even an article about it on ESPN. Educate yourself.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/7054/memo-to-a-young-baller


As for TD, i've said this at least 10x in this message board, He was playing through injuries last year and age has finally caught up with him. The statistic has TD as the SECOND BEST PLAYER IN THE DECADE. It LOVES TD. It was only in 2008-2009 that TD was merely only top 25.

Iggy is better than Kobe. Why? Because he plays FAR FAR better defense. You can't deny this.

Here is what Wayne Winston, the guy that Cuban paid over a million dollars for these statistics had to say about it..

[QUOTE]it saddens me that Andre Iguodala did not make the All-Star Team last year. Using Adjusted +/- we have him as the NBA

[Jinxed]

From Wayne Winston

Is Lamar Odom Better than Kobe Bryant?


Most followers of the NBA think LeBron James and Kobe Bryant are the two best players in the NBA. Well, there is pretty convincing evidence that Kobe Bryant may not be the best player on his own team? If you look at how the Lakers play with various combinations of Odom and Bryant in and out of the game during the 2009 playoffs it becomes clear that if Odom is not as good as Bryant, he certainly is an outstanding player. Look at the following numbers:

* With Bryant and Gasol in and Odom out the Lakers were outscored by3 points in 320 minutes. After adjusting for the strength of opponents faced, the Lakers played 4 points better than an average team (per 48 minutes) during these 320 minutes.
* With Bryant out and Gasol and Odom in during the playoffs the Lakers outscored their opponents by 21 points in 86 minutes! After adjusting for the strength of opponents faced the Lakers played 13 points better than an average team (per 48 minutes) during these 86 minutes.
* As expected, with Kobe, Gasol and Odom in during 535 minutes the Lakers outscored their playoff opponents by 165 points, playing 23 points (per 48 minutes) better than an average team.

So it looks like the fantastic Kobe Bryant could not make the Lakers outscore playoff opponents with Gasol in unless he had Odom in. On the other hand Odom and Gasol easily dominated their opponents without Kobe. Makes you question the

[Kblaze8855]

Ignoring for a moment the fact that you are saying I need to argue against the stat when it goes against common sense and you dont need to argue to support what it says because it saying it is proof enough of its correctness.....


What im gonna do here is simply repost the things you have said in this topic that best do the job of ridiculing you. Its rare someone is so brazenly wrong...that their own words serve as better mockery than I can come up with...but you are a special special person...



Odom was over Dirk last year


Dwight Howard is nothing more than a slightly above average player in the NBA


Kevin Durant sucks. Most people know it now.


Iggy is better than Kobe


You think Kevin Martin is a good basketball player. PROVE IT. Because I think he sucks


Maybe your ignorance as to why Brad Miller is better than Dwight Howard is because you aren't aware that Brad is far better than Dwight at denying his man the ball, or not allowing the opposing big man to establish position down low...etc...


An average team A with Amir Johnson, playing an average team B with Kobe Bryant beats them. You see, since Amir Johnson is a bad offensive player, his team will score 98 points instead of 100, but since Kobe is a bad defender, he'll give up two points on d so Amir's team is back at 100 points scored. But playing his lockdown defense Amir's defense will cause his opponents team to score 8 less points than normal. Which means Kobe's average team would normally score 92 points, but since they have Kobe, they will score 7 points above their average meaning they will score 99 points per 100 possessions.

Team A of four average players and Amir Johnson at power forward would beat Team B of four average players and Kobe Bryant at sg 100-99.


You are what I used to consder a wildly unrealistic worst case scenario in regards to fans becoming too in love with stats. You have taught me a valuable lesson. No matter how low I set the bar...someone...somewhere....is gonna find a way to crawl under it.

You may be the death of my faith in common sense.

[Jinxed]

It goes against common sense that the earth revolves around the sun, but someone had to come and enlighten the way...

The perfect analogy of this argument is me telling you the earth goes around the sun and not the other way around...and giving you all the evidence for it..the earth is turning on it's axis, etc etc...


and you say ...that's nonsense, i can't tell you why! but it just goes against common sense..of course the sun moves around the earth!

You're living in the stone age bro.


And once again you offer NO EVIDENCE of any of your assertions..

SHow me how Kevin Martin is good.

come on man...do it...if it's so obvious, and such common sense why can't you do it..? if these things are so obvious 'so common sense'....why can't you do it?

Because COMMON SENSE is WRONG...

your idea of common sense goes something like this...player x is good because he puts up highlights on sportscenter and has good numbers in box score..i.e.. is good on offense..but common sense doesn't include defense....

[Kblaze8855]

COMMON SENSE is WRONG...

I love this guy....

Do you appear at parties?

[Rafael Delaget]

It goes against common sense that the earth revolves around the sun, but someone had to come and enlighten the way...

And once again you offer NO EVIDENCE of any of your assertions..

SHow me how Kevin Martin is good.

come on man...do it...if it's so obvious, and such common sense why can't you do it..? if these things are so obvious 'so common sense'....why can't you do it?

Because COMMON SENSE is WRONG...

your idea of common sense goes something like this...player x is good because he puts up highlights on sportscenter and has good numbers in box score..i.e.. is good on offense..but common sense doesn't include defense....

Are you familiar with the statistical concept of standard error, AKA "noise"? I would presume you are, but if not, please do a little research on it.

[Jinxed]

Alright, its obvious you got nothing. Now you are just appealing to the other people on the thread and trying to humor them...'i uhh can't make an argument, so i ull make jokes..hey guys aren't i funny..maybe if you guys can support my weak self esteem i'll feel better about myself..'

I WIN. You Lose. You just aren't smart enough bud. sorry.

Brutal KO

[Jinxed]

[QUOTE=Rafael Delaget

[Kblaze8855]

I WIN. You Lose. You just aren't smart enough bud. sorry.

Brutal KO


You are coming up on South Park level over the top internet kid parody.

The caps locked "I win?

"Brutal KO"?

Really?

[Jinxed]

You are coming up on South Park level over the top internet kid parody.

The caps locked "I win?

"Brutal KO"?

Really?

*hint*..I'm mocking you.

[Carbine]

These kind of stats, and stats in general (because most people use them in a end all, be all sense) are the basis of fans arguments because they don't understand the game. Or maybe they understand the game, but they don't realize how to break down and appreicate what exactly goes on in the game while you're watching it on television or in the stands.

I broke down a few games in last years playoffs and was amazed at how many things Kobe did that weren't kept as a stat and how much those little things effect the outcome of a game.

Anyway, this stat is flawed because this stats takes into account your teams ability to stop a team, and score, right? That in and of itself it flawed to begin with. Why should Kobe get blamed or discredited because Tim Duncan banked a shot over Bynum in an iso situation? Why should a player get a minus because the team gets hot and hits tough shots, and on the flip side, the bench player comes in for that player and the other team misses open jumpers?

This stat, like many lack context.

Basically, those who understand and can appreicate the game rarely bring up stats as their basis for their opinion - their opinions come from what they see, not what they read on a box score after the game.

[shlver]

The problem with APM is it throws out our intuition of the game and like Kblaze8855 said, common sense.

[Rafael Delaget]

Yes, and your point? The standard error is shown on the data set i provided

Well, whenever I've looked at plus/minus numbers before on various sites, the standard errors tend to be much greater than the standard errors in your OP. I guess the fact that the data in the OP is based on multiple years lowers the standard error, but I'm skeptical that it would lower it that much. I don't know, it's too late to be thinking this hard...

[Kblaze8855]

I gotta sk you....for real...

How do you exist? Away from here I mean.

Some things you read online....and its just not something you can picture someone saying.....offline. You know what I mean. Some little kid making fun of black people acting like hed do it to their face. You know....the "Thisis the internet...I can say what I want" people.

But there are other kinds. The internety guy who says things so far from the norm....and worded so poorly...that you cant envision it being said out loud to friends. Not that it would just be poorly recieved....but its just not how people talk. Nobody is discussing Kobe vs Amir Johnson and says:


An average team A with Amir Johnson, playing an average team B with Kobe Bryant beats them. You see, since Amir Johnson is a bad offensive player, his team will score 98 points instead of 100, but since Kobe is a bad defender, he'll give up two points on d so Amir's team is back at 100 points scored. But playing his lockdown defense Amir's defense will cause his opponents team to score 8 less points than normal. Which means Kobe's average team would normally score 92 points, but since they have Kobe, they will score 7 points above their average meaning they will score 99 points per 100 possessions.


Its clearly internet forum talk. Not "Talking to friends" talk.

So I have to ask...if your friends are discussing the NBA do you jump in with this bull**** as if you are going to prove Amare isnt one of the 200 best players in the league or something?

This is strictly online right? You dont talk to people offline about this do you? You cant...

It just cant picture it. A guy talking about his spreadsheet results and weighted averages to people in a social setting.

You dont let this leave the internet do you?

[Jinxed]

Anyway, this stat is flawed because this stats takes into account your teams ability to stop a team, and score, right? That in and of itself it flawed to begin with. Why should Kobe get blamed or discredited because Tim Duncan banked a shot over Bynum in an iso situation? Why should a player get a minus because the team gets hot and hits tough shots, and on the flip side, the bench player comes in for that player and the other team misses open jumpers?

This stat, like many lack context. .

SIGH....wrong wrong wrong. This is not a basic +-. Its ADJUSTED +/-, which means that it is adjusted to who is on the court with you at the same time, on your team and the opposing team.

You will not be hurt by having a bad team.

The stat is not flawed, only your comprehension of it.

[Carbine]

I never said you would be hurt by being on a bad team.

If Kobe gets discredited in this stat because Duncan banks a shot over Bynum in an iso situation, it's flawed.

[Jinxed]

The problem with APM is it throws out our intuition of the game and like Kblaze8855 said, common sense.

Does it really?

Look at the top 3 players in the league...Lebron, Dwade, KG...does that really fly in the way of common sense...or are there just a FEW anomalies?

Instead of thinking about all the things it has wrong, isn't it amazing how it does correlate with common sense.

[josh99]

So either the stat is flawed or everyone that knows anything about basketball are wrong. Which do you think is more likely?

[Jinxed]

I never said you would be hurt by being on a bad team.

If Kobe gets discredited in this stat because Duncan banks a shot over Bynum in an iso situation, it's flawed.

He doesn't get discredited.

This stat measures your production against the avg nba..player (that is imagine the avg nba was in the game instead of kobe..woud TD still bank the shot in)? Yes. This is a measurement of the ways you affect the game different than the avg nba player.

[Jinxed]

So either the stat is flawed or everyone that knows anything about basketball are wrong. Which do you think is more likely?

Anyone that knows anything about basketball?

The majority of NBA teams higher staticians to calculate ADJ +/- in order to give the coaches and managers scouting reports, because they know it's the best stat..

So I ask you...what's more likely..that NBA coaches know nothing about basketball...or does some idiot teenager on a message board know nothing about basketball?

[shlver]

Does your data include player-by-player interactions? If they do, can you give me the terms to evaluate the adjusted values?

[Lyin]

Anyone that knows anything about basketball?

The majority of NBA teams higher staticians to calculate ADJ +/- in order to give the coaches and managers scouting reports, because they know it's the best stat..

So I ask you...what's more likely..that NBA coaches know nothing about basketball...or does some idiot teenager on a message board know nothing about basketball?

Hire not higher idiot. LMAO @ you still defending this terrible "forumla" days later after everyone calling you an idiot.

[Rafael Delaget]

Anyone that knows anything about basketball?

The majority of NBA teams higher staticians to calculate ADJ +/- in order to give the coaches and managers scouting reports, because they know it's the best stat..

So I ask you...what's more likely..that NBA coaches know nothing about basketball...or does some idiot teenager on a message board know nothing about basketball?

I can't quite tell if you're being facetious here. I'm generally on your side regarding APM, but surely you're aware that even the biggest APM proponent wouldn't say Kobe < Amir Johnson just because APM says so. I mean, do you really think Daryl Morey or whoever would say that? Really?

[Jinxed]

[QUOTE=Rafael Delaget

[Jinxed]

Does your data include player-by-player interactions? If they do, can you give me the terms to evaluate the adjusted values?


It's not MY data. I didn't come up with it.

you can find the data here...

http://basketballvalue.com/downloads.php

and you aren't going to be able to do it on your own, first you're going to need a complex computer program like SPSS

[shlver]

It's not MY data. I didn't come up with it.

you can find the data here...

http://basketballvalue.com/downloads.php

and you aren't going to be able to do it on your own, first you're going to need a complex computer program like SPSS
:oldlol: I know, I've read about APM before. Yes I can, I use OpenStat.

[Rafael Delaget]

Nobody says Amir Johnson is better than Kobe. Why are you putting words in my mouth?

Did you not post this?


An average team A with Amir Johnson, playing an average team B with Kobe Bryant beats them.

You see, since Amir Johnson is a bad offensive player, his team will score 98 points instead of 100, but since Kobe is a bad defender, he'll give up two points on d so Amir's team is back at 100 points scored. But playing his lockdown defense Amir's defense will cause his opponents team to score 8 less points than normal. Which means Kobe's average team would normally score 92 points, but since they have Kobe, they will score 7 points above their average meaning they will score 99 points per 100 possessions.

Team A of four average players and Amir Johnson at power forward would beat Team B of four average players and Kobe Bryant at sg 100-99.

So once again how is Amir not better?

Like I said, not even the biggest proponent of APM would make this argument.

[Jinxed]

:oldlol: I know, I've read about APM before. Yes I can, I use OpenStat.


Ok, well different people adjust in slightly different ways, you might want to check out this forum

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/index.php

Steve Ilardi, Dan Rosenbaum and even John Hollinger post there.

[Jinxed]

[QUOTE=Rafael Delaget

[plowking]

Why is it that Amir Johnson, the so called 15th best player in the league, can't get a start in the NBA?

[Jinxed]

You guys HAVE TO watch this.

It's Wayne Winston explaining how the stat works..
http://video.yahoo.com/watch/6196780/16087711

at about 6 minutes in he talks about why KEVIN MARTIN AND KEVIN DURANT SUCK, and why IGGY is great.

[josh99]

Anyone that knows anything about basketball?

The majority of NBA teams higher staticians to calculate ADJ +/- in order to give the coaches and managers scouting reports, because they know it's the best stat..

So I ask you...what's more likely..that NBA coaches know nothing about basketball...or does some idiot teenager on a message board know nothing about basketball?
Do you honestly believe this:
6. Odom, Lamar
8. Lewis, Rashard
13. Young, Thaddeus
15. Johnson, Amir
19. Jamison, Antawn
43. Brandon Roy
96. Dwight Howard

Of course Adj. +/- Rankings has it's uses but it also has it's flaws. I'm sure all the NBA coaches agree that Dwight Howard>Amir Johnson even though he is 81 spots down the list.

[shlver]

You guys HAVE TO watch this.

It's Wayne Winston explaining how the stat works..
http://video.yahoo.com/watch/6196780/16087711

at about 6 minutes in he talks about why KEVIN MARTIN AND KEVIN DURANT SUCK, and why IGGY is great.
He also says Odom is better than Bryant, he compares 320 minutes of playtime to 86 minutes AND he conveniently leaves out what kind of players Gasol and Odom would be playing against in a game. Yeah, we should listen to this guy.:rolleyes:

[Jinxed]

He also says Odom is better than Bryant, he compares 320 minutes of playtime to 86 minutes AND he conveniently leaves out what kind of players Gasol and Odom would be playing against in a game. Yeah, we should listen to this guy.:rolleyes:

You must have missed the part where he says we adjusted for opposition

:roll: at you.

and he was just using that as an anecdotal example. Lamar Odom's rating is better throughout the whole season and even other years.

[Jinxed]

Do you honestly believe this:
6. Odom, Lamar
8. Lewis, Rashard
13. Young, Thaddeus
15. Johnson, Amir
19. Jamison, Antawn
43. Brandon Roy
96. Dwight Howard

Of course Adj. +/- Rankings has it's uses but it also has it's flaws. I'm sure all the NBA coaches agree that Dwight Howard>Amir Johnson even though he is 81 spots down the list.

We've already gone over the Amir Johnson example at length. just know that you can't compare bench players to starters. so let's leave him out.

and Yes, i believe the other ratings.

For instance Brandon Roy is a slightly below average defender. He just can't play D that well, good on offense, but not on D.

DEFENSE IS HALF THE GAME. Thaddeus Young is a great defender, so is Lamar Odom. Antwan Jamison is a 2x all star and a member of Team USA so I don't understand why you think his rating is too high...other than he plays for the Wizards and doesn't get a lot of time on national television. Your 'innate' or 'common sense' rating of players is really just how much you hear a players name on tv, which is controlled by ESPN and TNT who have certain TV deals with teams, so they talk about the players on those teams more in order to sell you the product..the more you hear Kobe's name the better you think he is. You hear Dwight Howard's name a lot more than Rashard Lewis, so you think Dwight is better. But he's not.

[hwliuLAP]

You must have missed the part where he says we adjusted for opposition



I'm curious to listen to you on how did he adjusted for opposition and why does his method makes it accurate.

Educate me.

[Jinxed]

I'm curious to listen to you on how did he adjusted for opposition and why does his method makes it accurate.

Educate me.

You can learn how to calculate the statistic here


http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/06/01/calculating-adjusted-plus-minus/

the guy who ran that site, now works for the Rockets.

[hwliuLAP]

You know I've met Wayne Winston before, interesting guy, he looks at just about everything in numbers.

So the system that the Mavs use(which hasn't resulted them in winning a ship) and the guy who ended up consulting for the Cavs (again.... besides drafting Lebron, the front office hasn't really done anything to help them compete) and we're suppose to believe these are true values to measure a player. Yup, makes sense.

BTW, you have no clue how the numbers are calculated, because it's 5000 pages worth, so don't even try to justify how this number is real by simply posting some article.

[Kblaze8855]

Anyone that knows anything about basketball?

The majority of NBA teams higher staticians to calculate ADJ +/- in order to give the coaches and managers scouting reports, because they know it's the best stat..

So I ask you...what's more likely..that NBA coaches know nothing about basketball...or does some idiot teenager on a message board know nothing about basketball?

The same coaches you claim are behind this idiocy would laugh in your face if you claim Kobe isnt top 10, Dwight is barely top 100, Amare isnt top 200 and Durant isnt top 300. Every single one of them. And GMs? They voted Dwight the best center, Duncan the best 4, and Kobe the best 2 all of which are against what this list says. If they are hiring people to give them this number with the belief that it shows which players are best....why do they still clearly think players ranked outside the elites on it are the best in the NBA?

[josh99]

We've already gone over the Amir Johnson example at length. just know that you can't compare bench players to starters. so let's leave him out.

and Yes, i believe the other ratings.

For instance Brandon Roy is a slightly below average defender. He just can't play D that well, good on offense, but not on D.

DEFENSE IS HALF THE GAME. Thaddeus Young is a great defender, so is Lamar Odom. Antwan Jamison is a 2x all star and a member of Team USA so I don't understand why you think his rating is too high...other than he plays for the Wizards and doesn't get a lot of time on national television. Your 'innate' or 'common sense' rating of players is really just how much you hear a players name on tv, which is controlled by ESPN and TNT who have certain TV deals with teams, so they talk about the players on those teams more in order to sell you the product..the more you hear Kobe's name the better you think he is. You hear Dwight Howard's name a lot more than Rashard Lewis, so you think Dwight is better. But he's not.
Let me see if I got this right... You disagree with all the coaches/media that voted for Dwight for MVP, DPOY, All-NBA Teams, Defensive Teams. You also think that Lamar Odom is the sixth best player in the NBA. Correct?

[Kblaze8855]

Is kinda odd that someone is claiming coaches believe this stat to be accurate when they voted Kobe and Dwight to the all d team. 24 coaches voted Kobe to the first team and 5 to the second and one left him off. 27 had Dwight on the first team...1 on second. The coaches who I suppose have access to this ****....maintain opinions in total conflict. I wonder how that is......

['Toine=MVP]

I don't know if I made this clear, but those numbers are supposed to be the best players in 2008-2009....meaning here are the most productive players of 2008-2009, and but they used six years of data on a diminishing scale to help lower the error score.

I understand that. My point is that both sides of this argument are going a little nuts here.

The OP is doing a horrible job defending the stat, mainly because he set up the argument in such a horrible way, first claiming that these are actually the best players in the league, then claiming that these were actually the best players from last year. Even if you fully believed without any doubts that adjusted +/- was the perfect system to tell us who is really the best and worst overall players, you still can't look at just one year of data and draw any serious conclusion, even about that year (I am going to get some crap for that argument I'm sure).

It is like looking at a baseball player's BABIP (batting average on balls in play). The stat takes out all HR, walks, and strikeouts and just looks at the number of hits landed in the field vs balls caught (or thrown to 1st in time to get the runner out). That stat is know to fluctuate greatly from year to year, not because some years a player is good at accumulating a high number of hits on balls put in play and some years that player is bad at it, but there is just random fluctuation. Some hitters are better than others with regard to this stat, but not each and every year. So the very best player at turning balls put into play into hits might have had a slightly below average year in BABIP this past season, while putting up top 10 BABIPs the previous two seasons. To put his .290 last year, .380 two years ago, and .370, .310, .360 into the same 70% formula and say that he was truly a .310 or so BABIP hitter last year would be incorrect. He was much more likely a true .342 BABIP hitter last year (the straight average of the past 5 years).

Sorry to all you non-baseball fans, but even baseball (the perfect sport for looking directly at statistics) has some statistics that fluctuate so much that real baseball analysts basically just ignore the fluctuation. The same thing is going on here.

[shlver]

You can learn how to calculate the statistic here


http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/06/01/calculating-adjusted-plus-minus/

the guy who ran that site, now works for the Rockets.
That says nothing on how to calculate regression analysis.

[sbw19]

http://a.espnradio.com/podcenter/nbatoday/nbatoday091106.mp3

NBA Today's 6/11/09 podcast. Interviewing Rockets GM, talking about evaluating talent, stats role and more. Listen to the first 12 minutes.

I think this should put all this BS talk about GMs *relying* on stats to rest.

[Kblaze8855]

I saw an Amir discussion that reminded me of this.

Possibly the worst topic in history.

Though...Dragic is now better than Amare.

[AnaheimLakers24]

poor guy. what happened to him?

[ImKobe]

lmfao, epic trolling by OP