ESPN Insider Request:JOHN HOLLINGER'S Player Ratings

[OnceInADECADE]

Anyone with INSIDER please be nice enough and share the article to me and other ISH members.

EAST AND WEST

[Rose]

Uh, I'll give it for the requested teams, obviously you want the T-wolves so one sec.

[OnceInADECADE]

Uh, I'll give it for the requested teams, obviously you want the T-wolves so one sec.

:D :D
give me Heat, Wolves, Raptors, Lakers:facepalm , Portland, OKC, Memphis, Sac, Boston and Sixers pleeze

[OnceInADECADE]

btw thanks Rose, but come fantasy basketball time i gonna dominate :bowdown: :bowdown:

[Rekindled]

can you give the knicks plz. i wanna read it for hte laughs

[Rose]

LUKE RIDNOUR, PG
Projection: 17.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 7.3 ast per 40 min; 15.66 PER | Player card

[SEEBASS1234]

btw thanks Rose, but come fantasy basketball time i gonna dominate :bowdown: :bowdown:
Sorry man, but you will not...I ran Michael Beasley up to 45 for you
smh

[OnceInADECADE]

[QUOTE=Rose]LUKE RIDNOUR, PG
Projection: 17.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 7.3 ast per 40 min; 15.66 PER | Player card

[Rose]

JONNY FLYNN, PG
Projection: 18.4 pts, 3.2 reb, 5.8 ast per 40 min; 12.74 PER | Player card

[OnceInADECADE]

Sorry man, but you will not...I ran Michael Beasley up to 45 for you
smh


FU A.J:facepalm :facepalm

[Rose]

can you give the knicks plz. i wanna read it for hte laughsRAYMOND FELTON, PG
Projection: 14.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 6.8 ast per 40 min; 14.99 PER | Player card

[Rose]

ROGER MASON, SG
Projection: 13.3 pts, 4.0 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 9.78 PER | Player card

[OnceInADECADE]

Thanks Rose

[Rose]

Thanks Rose
You're welcome

[OnceInADECADE]

You're welcome

btw REPPED

[Rose]

btw REPPED
got no green!

[OnceInADECADE]

got no green!



ISH[/B]] ou must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Rose again.

sORRY

[Rose]

sORRY
damn you rep system! :lol

[OnceInADECADE]

damn you rep system! :lol

:roll: :roll: :roll:

R U getting 2k?

[Rose]

:roll: :roll: :roll:

R U getting 2k?
**** yeah i'll pm you my gamertag in a sec

[OnceInADECADE]

**** yeah i'll pm you my gamertag in a sec
iight

got it thanks bro

[EnoughSaid]

Rose, can you please post the Heat one's?

[Rose]

Rose, can you please post the Heat one's?MARIO CHALMERS, PG
Projection: 11.5 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.5 ast per 40 min; 11.33 PER | Player card

• Shoot-first point guard with good size and amazingly fast hands.
• Good 3-point shooter, but rarely penetrates and commits too many turnovers.
• Gambling defender who will leave openings. Professionalism an issue.

Chalmers delivered a disappointing second season, getting benched for repeated tardiness and staying on the pine due to repeated misses. He shot just 31.8 percent on 3s, which was a huge setback from his promising rookie performance and one that all but eliminated any reason to keep him on the floor.

At his best, Chalmers' ability to space the floor and play off the ball make him a useful weapon on a team like Miami that doesn't require a traditional point guard, but he has to make shots. Last season he rarely shot the ball and was even worse at creating shots for others; plus, he ranked 65th out of 71 guards in turnover ratio.


DWYANE WADE, SG
Projection: 27.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 7.2 ast per 40 min; 26.31 PER | Player card

• High-scoring slasher with unbelievable quickness and knack for drawing fouls.
• Willing passer but erratic jump shooter. Will lose handle on the drive.
• Phenomenal shot-blocker for size and a good defender. Loves to roam off ball.

Wade put together an amazing year considering he was in noticeably worse shape the first two months and lacked his usual elevation. He shot in the low 40s in late December, but from that point until the end of the year, he was pretty much an exact replica of his 2008-09 self.

Wade's whole game is getting to the basket. He shot 63.4 percent in the basket area and ranked fourth among shooting guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. That's why it's amazing to see defenders bite on his shot-fake time after time; once you've got him shooting a jumper you've won, just let him shoot it. Wade shot 35.8 percent on long 2s and 30 percent on 3s, but seemingly twice without fail during every game, would have somebody land on him after he faked a 17-footer off the dribble.

Wade can take himself out of plays by roaming on defense, but he's such a dynamic disruptor that it's hard to complain -- especially since he chooses his risks much more carefully than he used to. Despite standing 6-foot-4, Wade blocked 1.1 shots per game; he's one of only three players 6-5 or shorter to average more than a block per game, and he's accomplished this four times. (Dennis Johnson and David Thompson are the others.) He also averaged a block and two steals in the same season for a second time in four years; the last player besides Wade to do so was Gerald Wallace in 2005-06.


LeBRON JAMES, SF
Projection: 29.0 pts, 7.3 reb, 8.3 ast per 40 min; 29.12 PER | Player card

• One-of-a-kind talent with point guard skills in a power forward's body.
• Physique and blinding speed overpower opponents on drives and transitions.
• Middling outside shot and free throw stroke are lone remaining weaknesses.

The disappointing ending in Cleveland doesn't change the fact James churned out one of history's most dominant regular seasons. His 31.19 PER didn't quite match the 31.76 he chalked up a year earlier, but since 1973-74 (we can't track it for earlier seasons because the league didn't track individual turnovers until then), he boasts two of the top six PER marks. The only player to top him is Michael Jordan, who owns the first, second, fourth and fifth positions.

Top Reg.-Season PER Since 1973-74
Player Team PER
Michael Jordan 1987-88 31.89
Michael Jordan 1990-91 31.79
LeBron James 2008-09 31.76
Michael Jordan 1989-90 31.31
Michael Jordan 1988-89 31.29
LeBron James 2009-10 31.19
Of all the phenomenal stats he put up, this one is the most remarkable: James converted an incredible 71.2 percent of his attempts at the basket area. To fully appreciate this mark, consider that nobody since 2004 has sunk more than 70 percent of their shots in that area with at least 150 attempts. Now consider that James had not 150 attempts, but 601 -- nearly eight a game. When he wasn't dunking, he was dishing -- he had a 5.83 pure point rating that was easily the best among non-point guards (see chart).

Top Pure Point Rating Among Non-Point Guards
Player Team PPR
LeBron James Cle 5.83
Manu Ginobili SA 4.31
Joe Johnson Atl 3.50
Hedo Turkoglu Tor 3.47
Jason Terry Dal 3.42
The ***** in the King's armor is that he's quite mortal if you can manage to keep him away from the basket. James hit only 39.1 percent of his 2-pointers that weren't at the rim, and that was a career high. Similarly, his other shooting numbers are mediocre: 33.3 percent on 3-pointers and 76.7 percent from the line. It's useful in end-of-shot-clock situations that he can get a jumper off any time he pleases, but the jumper is a liability earlier in the possession.


CHRIS BOSH, PF
Projection: 25.4 pts, 12.0 reb, 2.6 ast p/40 min; 23.88 PER | Player card

• Long, athletic frontcourt player with outstanding midrange jump shot.
• Lefty excels at driving either side to draw fouls. Likes to operate from left elbow.
• Excellent rebounder. Mobile defender but can be overpowered.

Bosh showed up with a little more muscle and put together the best season of his career, ranking fourth in the league in PER while setting new career-bests in points and rebounds per minute, shooting percentage, true shooting percentage (TS%) and usage rate. He's become a spectacular midrange shooter, making 46.3 percent and 48.2 percent of his long 2s the past two seasons.

Bosh also owns the free throw game. He ranked fourth among power forwards by averaging better than a foul shot for every two field goal attempts, and rarely reciprocated: No power forward fouled less often than Bosh's 2.69 per 40 minutes. Of course, the latter datum is partly an indictment -- he didn't give hard fouls on any of the myriad layups the Raptors gave up, especially during the final quarter of the season when, to put it kindly, he had it in cruise control.

Considering Bosh's slim build, perhaps the most impressive part of his season was that he ranked fifth among power forwards in defensive rebound rate. The biggest worry, on the other hand, is that once again he missed significant time with injuries. Bosh has played more than 70 games just once in the past five years.


JOEL ANTHONY, C
Projection: 6.5 pts, 8.1 reb, 0.5 ast per 40 min; 10.73 PER | Player card

• Hard-working shot-blocker with bad hands and limited offensive skills.
• Possesses good quickness and hustles. Won't shoot but makes foul shots.
• Undersized for 5. Amazingly poor rebounder considering his athleticism.

The Heat are justifiably pleased with Anthony's intangibles -- he works really hard, he defends well and he's one of the best shot-blockers in basketball, rejecting 3.3 shots per 40 minutes last season.

But the tangibles? Eccch. Anthony averaged a ridiculous 6.6 points per 40 minutes. He also posted the worst defensive rebound rate of any center at a comical 11.1. For comparison, 25 shooting guards rated better, as did 6-footers Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry. At the end of the day, he's a third center and at 28 he's not going to suddenly morph into anything more. Why Miami felt he merited a half-decade commitment is one of life's great mysteries.


KEY RESERVES
MIKE MILLER, SG
Projection: 11.4 pts, 7.1 reb, 4.5 ast per 40 min; 11.68 PER | Player card

• Outstanding shooter with textbook release. Strangely reluctant shooter.
• Willing passer -- too willing, actually -- who can put ball on floor going right.
• Excellent rebounder. Not terribly mobile and struggles on D, especially vs. 2s.

My big problem with Miller last season wasn't his unfortunate man-bob, but rather his inexplicable unwillingness to shoot. Miller led all shooting guards in TS%, assist ratio and rebound rate. So he was a human triple-double machine, right?

Wrong. His PER fell below the league average.

Miller is an awesome shooter, making 48 percent of his 3s, but he shot the ball only once every lunar eclipse. He finished 57th amongst shooting guards in usage rate and instead indulged his newfound unselfishness by passing up shots and forcing passes into traffic. Miller amassed the best assist ratio at his position … and the second-worst turnover ratio.

As for the rebounding, that's legit -- Miller might be the most underrated rebounder in basketball, averaging more than seven per 40 minutes for a third straight season. That's all well and good, but if LeBron and Wade are kicking the ball out to him wide open at the 3-point line, he's gotta shoot the rock.

[Rose]

ZYDRUNAS ILGAUSKAS, C
Projection: 13.8 pts, 9.4 reb, 1.3 ast per 40 min; 11.76 PER | Player card

[EnoughSaid]

Thanks dude. :cheers:

[PowerGlove]

:wtf: How many points are the heat going to score a game? 140?

13.8
13
10.7
13.7
10.2
11.0
11.5
27.9
29.0
25.4
6.5
11.4
=184.1

F8ck this, give me Hollinger's job ASAP.

[Rose]

:wtf: How many points are the heat going to score a game? 140?

13.8
13
10.7
13.7
10.2
11.0
11.5
27.9
29.0
25.4
6.5
11.4
=184.1

F8ck this, give me Hollinger's job ASAP.
it's based on a per 40 minute basis. Yeah it took me a minute to figure it out too, I was like. Asik is gonna average 14 and 10 a game?!?!?!?! jesus! someone get this kid in the convo for rookie of the year!

[SEEBASS1234]

FU A.J:facepalm :facepalm
I thought we had something special

[OnceInADECADE]

I thought we had something special

IT'S OVER:banghead:

[PowerGlove]

it's based on a per 40 minute basis. Yeah it took me a minute to figure it out too, I was like. Asik is gonna average 14 and 10 a game?!?!?!?! jesus! someone get this kid in the convo for rookie of the year!
Why would you base predictions on a 40 minute basis? That is damn lazy.

[Rose]

Why would you base predictions on a 40 minute basis? That is damn lazy.
Because it's PER, and PER is based off of per 40. I think it's bullshit too.

[MTing]

Can you please post the Nets too?
Sorry if its getting annoying.

[Rose]

Can you please post the Nets too?
Sorry if its getting annoying.
Lol it's not a problem. just gimme a second

[Rose]

DEVIN HARRIS, PG
Projection: 19.4 pts, 3.5 reb, 7.3 ast per 40 min; 16.57 PER | Player card

[Rose]

ANTHONY MORROW, SG
Projection: 17.7 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.1 ast per 40 min; 13.90 PER | Player card

[MTing]

Lol it's not a problem. just gimme a second
Thanks a lot:cheers:
Really appreciate it.

[Skep]

Rose! look at your inbox.

[Rose]

DERON WILLIAMS, PG
Projection: 19.6 pts, 4.1 reb, 11.0 ast per 40 min; 19.79 PER | Player card

[Rose]

RONNIE PRICE, PG
Projection: 13.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 5.9 ast per 40 min; 10.40 PER | Player card

[Faberg]

Can I get the Player Ratings for the Suns please? :D

[Rose]

Can I get the Player Ratings for the Suns please? :D
uno momento!

[Rose]

STEVE NASH, PG
Projection: 19.0 pts, 3.9 reb, 13.0 ast per 40 min; 19.92 PER | Player card

[Rose]

HAKIM WARRICK, PF
Projection: 18.0 pts, 8.1 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min; 15.38 PER | Player card

[Skep]

uno momento!

Because he is a Suns fan you think he is mexican? Douche.....

[Faberg]

Thanks! That was quick! I gave you some rep. :cheers:

[mmmarvinsays]

clippers???

[Rose]

Because he is a Suns fan you think he is mexican? Douche.....
Chill mormon. Mexicans aren't even allowed in Arizona anymore. :oldlol:

[Willkill24]

Chill mormon. Mexicans aren't even allowed in Arizona anymore. :oldlol:
:roll:

[Rose]

clippers???
gimme a moment or two.

[Rose]

BARON DAVIS, PG
17.0 pts, 4.3 reb, 8.7 ast per 40 min; 15.92 PER | Player card

[Rose]

DeANDRE JORDAN, C
Projection: 12.0 pts, 11.9 reb, 0.7 ast per 40 min; 12.81 PER | Player card

[Maga_1]

Rose, can you give me the Blazers?

[Rose]

Rose, can you give me the Blazers?
Can you gimme dat ass in yo avy? of course:cheers:

[Rose]

ANDRE MILLER, PG
Projection: 17.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 6.4 ast per 40 min; 16.08 PER | Player card

[Rose]

JERRYD BAYLESS, PG
Projection: 19.6 pts, 3.7 reb, 5.2 ast per 40 min; 14.08 PER | Player card

[sagr32]

Lakers?

[Maga_1]

Can you gimme dat ass in yo avy? of course:cheers:

thanks a lot. repped

[12shyloc26]

Lakers?

This. I want to see what he has to say about Bynum.

[Rose]

This. I want to see what he has to say about Bynum.
Didn't see the lakers request before. My b one second!

[Rose]

EREK FISHER, PG
Projection: 11.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 3.8 ast per 40 min; 9.10 PER | Player card

[Rose]

STEVE BLAKE, PG
Projection: 10.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.3 ast per 40 min; 10.73 PER | Player card

[Go Getter]

Bulls

[Skep]

Bulls

suck

[AirGauge23]

According to this Kevin Love will put up 20/15/3 and Anthony Randolph will have have better numbers than Amare.

Ok.

[Willkill24]

According to this Kevin Love will put up 20/15/3 and Anthony Randolph will have have better numbers than Amare.

Ok.
:roll: @ Hollinger.

[Pushxx]

Please put up the Celtics.

[Meticode]

i stopped reading there :lol :lol :lol
Then you didn't read far enough. All the stat projections is if the player played 40 minutes per game.

P.S. - Everyone isn't noticing that all the players are at 40 minutes per game, which no one plays anymore. So you can reduce their stats drastically from what you say to what time they'll actually get to play.

[Granny Danger]

So Mozgov will be a better rebounder than Camby, Oden, Lopez, Kaman and Jefferson?!

[niko]

What i don't get is some players improvement he sites as abberations, while others it will continue. He never cites why he feels this way. On the Knicks, Felton's shooting improvement is an abberation and Walker's is true growth.

[evilmonkey]

LeBRON JAMES, SF
Projection: 29.0 pts, 7.3 reb, 8.3 ast per 40 min;

What!? He played ~39 (38.95) minutes last season.... and averaged 29.7 ppg, 7.3 reb, 8.6 apg.... how does he average LESS if playing more? :wtf:

He averaged exactly:

0.7625 points per 1 min
0.1880 rebounds per 1 min
0.2214 assists per 1 min

So... Per 40 that makes it:

0.7625 x 40 = 30.5 points per 40 min
0.1880 x 40 = 7.5 rebounds per 40 min
0.2214 x 40 = 8.9 assists per 40 min

[Ghettobird]

:ll at chi nk being censored

[noob cake]

What!? He played ~39 (38.95) minutes last season.... and averaged 29.7 ppg, 7.3 reb, 8.6 apg.... how does he average LESS if playing more? :wtf:

He averaged exactly:

0.7625 points per 1 min
0.1880 rebounds per 1 min
0.2214 assists per 1 min

So... Per 40 that makes it:

0.7625 x 40 = 30.5 points per 40 min
0.1880 x 40 = 7.5 rebounds per 40 min
0.2214 x 40 = 8.9 assists per 40 min

Scoring goes down with Bosh/Wade. Assist going down with Wade. That 0.2 in rebound is negligible.

After all, this is just a projection.

[evilmonkey]

Scoring goes down with Bosh/Wade.

Agree


Assist going down with Wade.

I just cant see that... doesnt make sense with such caliber of teammates he has around Lebron, especially considering Spoelstra will use Lebron at PG very often aswell.... Sure he will share those playmaking duties with Wade, but you have to understand Lebron will be much more in so to say "Magic Johnson" mode around these teammates, he will pass more than ever before and his teammates will be able to finish of those passes of his like never before...

If you take a look at Olympics where he played with CP3, J-Kidd, Wade and so on, he still led them in assists... it doesnt matter what kindof playmakers he has around him, he will get assists, thats just his game. Now im not sure how much it will be in Heat but i can guarantee he will lead them in assists....


That 0.2 in rebound is negligible.

He might actually average more rebounds, in Cleveland he had much grittier rebound hogers...

The only problem will be minutes/playing time, Heat will blowout many which means he will sitout alot of 4th quarters. His points is guaranteed going down though, rebounds have no idea about... but assists will skyrocket for him, unless playing time gives a problem again ofcourse.

[ZenMaster]

Agree



I just cant see that... doesnt make sense with such caliber of teammates he has around Lebron, especially considering Spoelstra will use Lebron at PG very often aswell.... Sure he will share those playmaking duties with Wade, but you have to understand Lebron will be much more in so to say "Magic Johnson" mode around these teammates, he will pass more than ever before and his teammates will be able to finish of those passes of his like never before...



He might actually average more rebounds, in Cleveland he had much grittier rebound hogers...

The only problem will be minutes/playing time, Heat will blowout many which means he will sitout alot of 4th quarters. His points is guaranteed going down though, rebounds have no idea about... but assists will skyrocket for him, unless playing time gives a problem again ofcourse.

His assists probably wont go up by a whole lot(if at all) because he's not going to have the ball as much in the half court as last year.

[evilmonkey]

His assists probably wont go up by a whole lot(if at all) because he's not going to have the ball as much in the half court as last year.

You are right but like i said again... you have to understand that he never had these kindof caliber of teammates before, he will pass much more and will be more of a "point-forward" and his teammates will finish of his passes more.

Magic Johnson for example averaged MUCH less possessions than Lebron, Nash, Deron and so on average much less ball dominating possessions aswell... but they still averaged more assists? Why? Because they passed more...

Heat will have MUCH more faster pace than Lebrons former team aswell, which will also create more possessions....

Spoelstra said numerous times Lebron/Wade will be used as main ballhandlers most of the time... and we all know how ball dominant Lebron is... and im sure Wade wouldnt mind it considering he will get much more scoring oppurtunities for him and considering he can concentrate more on scoring.

[steve]

What i don't get is some players improvement he sites as abberations, while others it will continue. He never cites why he feels this way. On the Knicks, Felton's shooting improvement is an abberation and Walker's is true growth.
I think it would mainly have to do with age/experience in the league. Walker's at the point in his career where natural improvement in numbers is accepted, if not expected. Whereas Felton has passed the point where you'll considerable improvement due to age and standing in the league, therefore if the numbers show an improvement in his numbers, it's likely to assume that it's an aberration of an uptick rather than continued progress (think Luke Ridnour last season). I'm not saying that it's necessarily right, but that's the line of thinking anyway.

A few other points:

Hollinger's model is regression based, so most of the projections are going to to skew towards the middle (which works both ways, high and low). The model doesn't really predict Lebron to continue at his insane pace that he had the last two seasons (although the model had his PER lower last season than it did this year). It's the same way with the team projections, if it seems a little low, think of it as the model hedging its bets (as in it's easier to think moderate than it is to go real high or real low).

Also, he uses per40 numbers for two reasons. 1. it's easier for comparison. If everyone is at the same level, it's easier to see where they differ. Obviously he expects his readers to be smart about the process and realize that someone like Mozgov isn't going to average anywhere close to 40 minutes a game and adjust accordingly (although that might be asking too much). If you read what he's writing, he's fully aware and points out the flaws that will keep them from being significant contributors in minutes. 2. it's extremely difficult to predict what a player is going to average in terms of minutes from season to season. There are several factors that change even during the season that will throw off a players minutes (how good a team is, injuries, etc...). So rather than try and figure out what their minutes might be (which really isn't the point he's trying to work with), it's just easier to put them all on a level playing field and then go into depth about what might/will hold them back.

[Rose]

DERRICK ROSE, PG
Projection: 23.5 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.6 ast per 40 min; 19.42 PER | Player card

[Rose]

JAMES JOHNSON, SF
Projection: 13.6 pts, 6.6 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 11.36 PER | Player card

[InspiredLebowski]

Someone wanna post Indy so I can add Hollinger to the list of national writers that knows jack shit about the team?

[Rose]

Someone wanna post Indy so I can add Hollinger to the list of national writers that knows jack shit about the team?
Lol Indy's is coming right up

[Rose]

STARTERS
DARREN COLLISON, PG
Projection: 18.7 pts, 3.4 reb, 7.9 ast per 40 min; 16.88 PER | Player card

[Rose]

T.J. FORD, PG
Projection: 17.0 pts, 4.7 reb, 6.3 ast per 40 min; 14.08 PER | Player card

[ZenMaster]

You are right but like i said again... you have to understand that he never had these kindof caliber of teammates before, he will pass much more and will be more of a "point-forward" and his teammates will finish of his passes more.

Magic Johnson for example averaged MUCH less possessions than Lebron, Nash, Deron and so on average much less ball dominating possessions aswell... but they still averaged more assists? Why? Because they passed more...

Heat will have MUCH more faster pace than Lebrons former team aswell, which will also create more possessions....

Spoelstra said numerous times Lebron/Wade will be used as main ballhandlers most of the time... and we all know how ball dominant Lebron is... and im sure Wade wouldnt mind it considering he will get much more scoring oppurtunities for him and considering he can concentrate more on scoring.

But you also have to understand that he will not have the ball as much in his hands as earlier.

Yes they're going to create a lot in the open court but Lebron is the best finisher in the league on the fast break so he should be looking for a lot of his points there.

Wade is one of the best pickn'roll players in the game, he will run A LOT of those next year as well. Wade's assist numbers should also go up because of better teammates.

I just don't see Lebron's assist number sky rocket, it's already very high.

He should be able to shoot a higher % though.

Overall the strength of the team doesn't have much to do with Lebron's assist number, the strength of Miami will be that they have 2 elite players and that each one can attack and create for the others at any given point. There's no need to say that one guy should be doing this and one guy should be doing that when they both can do it all.

[magnax1]

Every year Hollinger says Kobe is going to have a big decline. I happen to agree this year, but it's just funny that it never happens.

[Rose]

Every year Hollinger says Kobe is going to have a big decline. I happen to agree this year, but it's just funny that it never happens.
I think having Pau and Bynum helps hide his aging on offense. and Artest covers his defensive slowness now. Personally I think his drop comes next year.

[magnax1]

I think having Pau and Bynum helps hide his aging on offense. and Artest covers his defensive slowness now. Personally I think his drop comes next year.
Well, I think he's improved enough in almost every facet the past three years to make his pretty huge decline in athleticism negligible. Really, he was having his best year last year before the injuries, but now that he's gotten arthritis real bad, and is on like his 3rd knee surgery in 5 years or so, he'll probably decline.

[Rose]

Well, I think he's improved enough in almost every facet the past three years to make his pretty huge decline in athleticism negligible. Really, he was having his best year last year before the injuries, but now that he's gotten arthritis real bad, and is on like his 3rd knee surgery in 5 years or so, he'll probably decline.
Yeah I agree offensively he's completely changed his game like Michael did. but I think if Pau wasn't there he'd still try chucking his way to the Finals. Yeah but the arthritis is in the finger though, it never stopped Magic, or a host of other players with bad fingers from doing good. The knee is what concerns me, but I think it's got another run in it just because of the Heat, and he knows adding a Finals victory over them adds to his legacy.

[DC Zephyrs]

Wizards?

[Maggot]

Brandon Jennings:

Projection: 19.9 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.9 ast per 40 min; 14.36 PER

[Maggot]

Drew Gooden

Projection: 16.3 pts, 11.8 reb, 1.1 ast per 40 min; 15.82 PER

• Bouncy power forward who goes to glass and can finish around basket.
• Underrated midrange shooter despite unusual release. Limited post game.
• Nimble defender with good size, but tends to lose focus and make poor decisions.

For the first time in his career last season, Gooden played the majority of his minutes at center, and he's bulked up enough to hold his own on that spot. In fact, he nearly set a career high in rebound rate and finished seventh in the NBA in offensive rebound rate.

Gooden also has made tremendous progress as a shooter, with his 86.1 percent mark from the free throw line ranking first among centers. It was his second straight season in the mid-80s from the stripe, and he knocked down 45.2 percent of his long-distance 2s as well.

Choosing his spots better might be part of the reason. Gooden switched from taking 39 percent of his shots in the basket area in 2008-09 to 62.8 percent last season; the only reason his field goal percentage didn't increase more is because he shot dreadfully on "in-between" shots. Normally a solid shooter from this range, he made only 31.1 percent.

Gooden probably will drift back toward the perimeter in Milwaukee, where he figures to play more at power forward than at center, but at either position he's one of the league's more underrated players right now.


Andrew Bogut:

Projection: 19.4 pts, 12.2 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 20.60 PER

• Elite help defender who takes bushels of charges and is a shot-blocking force.
• Effective right-block post weapon who likes to shoot lefty jump hooks in the lane.
• Outstanding rebounder, but a poor shooter with average speed and quickness.

Bogut enjoyed a breakout season in 2009-10, and in retrospect it's a minor travesty he didn't make the All-Star team. He's always been able to rebound, but he showcased big improvements in his scoring and defense in his fifth pro season. Bogut markedly cut his turnovers and became increasingly comfortable shooting short hooks around the basket, often after facing up from the midpost. He bumped his 40-minute scoring average by nearly five points and sharply cut his turnover rate at the same time.

Defensively, he's always been a fantastic rebounder and taken charges by the boatload. What changed last season were his shot-blocking numbers. Never renowned for his vertical, Bogut nonetheless swatted 2.54 shots per game, good for second in the league. On a per-minute basis, he blocked shots more than twice as often as he had the previous season.

Amazingly, he also ranked fourth in the league in charges drawn per game -- it's mind-boggling that a big man could go up in the air for so many blocks and still stay on the ground for so many charges. If he keeps up those numbers, his regrettable omissions from the All-Defense and All-Star teams won't continue for long.

First, however, he must overcome that horrific elbow injury he suffered in April. Bogut rarely shoots from outside, so a full recovery is less essential in that respect, but he might not be in peak basketball shape at the outset of the season.

[Rose]

Wizards?
Gimme a quick tick

[Rose]

JOHN WALL, PG
No projection | Player card

[Rose]

JOSH HOWARD, SF
Projection: 17.8 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.9 ast per 40 min; 12.28 PER | Player card

[KG5MVP]

celtics!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[Gotterdammerung]

Por favor, senor, post the San Antonio Spurs. Will rep a couple times. :bowdown:

[BlazersDozen]

Anyone else catch that he has better stats for Anthony Randolph than for Amar'e Stoudamire?

[Ghettobird]

nuggets?

[BankShot]

You guys are super cheap. ESPN Insider + ESPN the mag subscription is like $5 a month

[BankShot]

Anyone else catch that he has better stats for Anthony Randolph than for Amar'e Stoudamire?

Did you not catch the fact that the given statistics are per-40-minutes???

Anthony Randolph has proven, in limited minutes, to be a better rebounder, a more tenacious shot-blocker, and a more willing passer, then Amare has ever been

Why would it not surprise you that in equal minutes he'd have a more diverse stat sheet?

[OnceInADECADE]

Nice Job Rose:rockon: :applause:

[Rose]

c's, spurs, and nugs coming straight up.

[Rose]

TONY PARKER, PG
Projection: 20.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 7.2 ast per 40 min; 16.89 PER | Player card

[Rose]

DeJUAN BLAIR, PF
Projection: 18.1 pts, 14.0 reb, 2.2 ast per 40 min; 19.03 PER | Player card

[Rose]

CHAUNCEY BILLUPS, PG
Projection: 22.0 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast per 40 min; 19.95 PER | Player card

[Rose]

KENYON MARTIN, PF
Projection: 12.5 pts, 9.6 reb, 2.0 ast per 40 min; 12.44 PER | Player card

[Rose]

STARTERS
RAJON RONDO, PG
Projection: 15.0 pts, 4.6 reb, 9.7 ast per 40 min; 18.84 PER | Player card

[Rose]

KENDRICK PERKINS, C
Projection: 13.1 pts, 10.0 reb, 1.9 ast per 40 min; 13.09 PER | Player card

[YouCallILose]

hmm what about OKC

[Rose]

RUSSELL WESTBROOK, PG
Projection: 19.6 pts, 5.7 reb, 8.9 ast per 40 min; 18.58 PER | Player card

[Rose]

NICK COLLISON, PF
Projection: 10.9 pts, 10.0 reb, 1.2 ast per 40 min; 12.50 PER | Player card

[YouCallILose]

So he has Durant scoring 32.5 ppg and the next highest player only averaging 28....:eek:

[Rose]

So he has Durant scoring 32.5 ppg and the next highest player only averaging 28....:eek:
Durant=amazing. but it's based on 40 minutes per game.

[evilmonkey]

Durant=amazing. but it's based on 40 minutes per game.

Then why did all of Lebrons numbers go down? Its Per 40 based on last seasons numbers right? If so then Lebrons numbers Per 40 should be (30.5 - 7.5 - 8.9)

[Rose]

Then why did all of Lebrons numbers go down?
He's passing more so he gets less shots. Bosh is a very effective rebounder. and I really don't see his assists changing that much because Wade is more of a driver than a catch and shoot guy.

[evilmonkey]

He's passing more so he gets less shots. Bosh is a very effective rebounder. and I really don't see his assists changing that much because Wade is more of a driver than a catch and shoot guy.

I dont think you understand my question... Are those Hollinger Per 40 numbers based on a specific season or are they just wild guesses to how much the players will average this upcoming season per 40?

However the case, they got it all wrong both ways.

[YouCallILose]

Durant=amazing. but it's based on 40 minutes per game.


You missed the part where Durant averaged 40 MPG last season

Actually over the last 2 seasons combined he's averaging 39.3 mpg

[Willkill24]

:roll: @ people taking Hollinger seriously.

[ZenMaster]

:roll: @ people taking Hollinger seriously.

So which part of his analysis don't you agree with?

[Droid101]

I dont think you understand my question... Are those Hollinger Per 40 numbers based on a specific season or are they just wild guesses to how much the players will average this upcoming season per 40?

However the case, they got it all wrong both ways.
He has years and years of data for players of the same "type." He uses those to base what a certain player's stats will be for the upcoming season.

For instance, let's pick a random player... Kirk Hinrich. He will loosely base that player on a player from the past, let's say he related Kirk to Mark Price.

Now, he'll look at Mark Price's career, year-over-year, to base if he thinks the current player will increase in production, decrease, or whatnot.

It's all done by the computer, so he just reports on the games he watches and compares it to the numbers the computer spits out.

And, as someone else posted earlier, his numbers always try to tug players back to "average" levels... if they performed very well one year, the next year the law of averages will say he'll be a bit worse. If he performed terribly one year, the law of averages will say he'll be a bit better.

Another example is Kobe... by all accounts (from the massive data collected over the years), wing players who depend on athleticism decline rapidly after age 30 (see Tmac and others from history), so his 'projected' numbers ALWAYS have Kobe getting much worse, but Kobe generally bucks these trends by changing his game as he gets older.

[Rose]

You missed the part where Durant averaged 40 MPG last season

Actually over the last 2 seasons combined he's averaging 39.3 mpg
Yeah I thought you meant westbrook or another thunder was averaging 28 my bad. I never read the thunder projection. :roll:

[Droid101]

Found his description. He describes it better than I did (obviously, he made the damn system):


By this point some of you are probably wondering how I created the projections.

It's not, as some suspect, by pulling numbers out of the air. Nor was my secret yet pervasive bias against your favorite team a factor, much as commenters like to feel otherwise.

I base the projections on a tool called similarity scores.

For each player, I use as a comparison the players from the past 20 years who are the most similar, based on age, height and stats over the past three seasons. Some players will have more comparables than others, depending on how unusual they are -- guys with freak heights (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Nate Robinson), freak ages (Shaquille O'Neal) or freak stats (Andrei Kirilenko) will have relatively few, while a more generic player like Al Harrington or Devin Brown could have over a hundred.

From that point, I see what their most similar players did a year later, and project those changes onto the stats of the player being studied. So, for example, the reason that Andrew Bynum's PER is projected to rise sharply this year is because the most similar players also saw their PERs increase sharply at the same age; similarly, Jason Terry is expected to tank because a number of similar players hit the wall at his age.

Of course, any number of other factors can be relevant to a player's performance -- how hard he trains, for instance, and injuries, coaching, and so on. But consider these numbers a median estimate for what the player might be likely to do this coming season, other things being equal. And then, if other things aren't equal, apply your own logic from there.
From http://espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=3055049

[SinJackal]

Watching Blair makes me want to have my ACLs removed. He is just spectacular on the offensive glass, pulling down 16.0 percent of his team's missed shots for the second-best rate in the league (see chart). And while he has no jump shot whatsoever, he was so active off the ball that he averaged 17.1 points per 40 minutes -- one of the better rates at his position.


That made me laugh. :P

[Willkill24]

So which part of his analysis don't you agree with?
DANNY GRANGER-25.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min

KOBE BRYANT-26.3 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.8 ast per 40 min

ANTHONY RANDOLPH-23.6 pts, 11.9 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min

AMARE STOUDEMIRE-24.2 pts, 9.6 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min

[Droid101]

DANNY GRANGER-25.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min

KOBE BRYANT-26.3 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.8 ast per 40 min

ANTHONY RANDOLPH-23.6 pts, 11.9 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min

AMARE STOUDEMIRE-24.2 pts, 9.6 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min
What don't you agree with? Those per 40 minute stats are too high? Too low? What?

[Willkill24]

What don't you agree with? Those per 40 minute stats are too high? Too low? What?
So Granger is spoused to be almost as good as Kobe and Randolph better than Amare.:confusedshrug:

[Rose]

So Granger is spoused to be almost as good as Kobe and Randolph better than Amare.:confusedshrug:
Randolph never got playing time under Nelly, so he averaged like 10 points in 17 minutes or something around that. That's why his per 40 are so high. and that's actually how good Granger is. It's just no one outside Indy sees that. Granted there's a difference between the two but those are his real numbers.

[OnceInADECADE]

[QUOTE=Rose]
[B][U]MICHAEL BEASLEY, PF
Projection: 22.9 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.9 ast per 40 min; 18.75 PER | Player card

[OnceInADECADE]

Yeah Rose can you do Memphis

thanks dude i gonna repp u now

[OnceInADECADE]

Yeah Rose can you do Memphis

thanks dude i gonna repp u now


maybad bro i cant

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Rose again.

[Rose]

Yeah Rose can you do Memphis

thanks dude i gonna repp u now
One second.

[Rose]

MIKE CONLEY, PG
Projection: 16.4 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.8 ast per 40 min; 15.15 PER | Player card

[Rose]

XAVIER HENRY, SG
Player card

[Rose]

Who's your Haddadi! One of my fav. players in the league. He can rebound the shit out of the ball.

[OnceInADECADE]

thanks bro i repp u when i can

[Droid101]

So Granger is spoused to be almost as good as Kobe and Randolph better than Amare.:confusedshrug:
Well, why not compare their 09-10 seasons?

Kobe, per 40 minutes: P 27.8 R 5.5 A 5.1
Danny G, per 40 minutes: P 26.3 R 6.0 A 3.0

Looks like his program projects Kobe will decrease (since he's so old) and Granger will increase (since he's about to enter his prime). Plus Granger plays a lot at the 3, Kobe plays at the 2 (hence the rebounding differential). doesn't look too far off, to me (of course his numbers always hit Kobe harder because he's old).

As for the other two:

Randolph, per 40 minutes: P 20.5 R 11.5 A 2.2
Amare, per 40 minutes: P 26.7 R 10.3 A 1.2

Same story looks to me. His program projected a slight increase per 40 minutes for Randolph (he's so young) and a slight decrease for Amare (he's older). I doubt Randolph will play anywhere near 40 minutes, but I don't think the per 40 minute projection is way off for him. I expect Amare to score a bit more than that, but that's about it.

They don't seem that far fetched to me.

[Droid101]

thanks bro i repp u when i can
Covered, I repped him for you.

[Rose]

Covered, I repped him for you.
Unfortunately your rep is grey. But I appreciate the thought. I shall give your rep power within the next 24 hours!:cheers:

[Droid101]

Unfortunately your rep is grey. But I appreciate the thought. I shall give your rep power within the next 24 hours!:cheers:
Sonofabitch. I thought you only needed green to give green. I guess you need 10 points to give green (which, thanks to you, I now have!). :cheers:

[Willkill24]

Well, why not compare their 09-10 seasons?

Kobe, per 40 minutes: P 27.8 R 5.5 A 5.1
Danny G, per 40 minutes: P 26.3 R 6.0 A 3.0

Looks like his program projects Kobe will decrease (since he's so old) and Granger will increase (since he's about to enter his prime). Plus Granger plays a lot at the 3, Kobe plays at the 2 (hence the rebounding differential). doesn't look too far off, to me (of course his numbers always hit Kobe harder because he's old).

As for the other two:

Randolph, per 40 minutes: P 20.5 R 11.5 A 2.2
Amare, per 40 minutes: P 26.7 R 10.3 A 1.2

Same story looks to me. His program projected a slight increase per 40 minutes for Randolph (he's so young) and a slight decrease for Amare (he's older). I doubt Randolph will play anywhere near 40 minutes, but I don't think the per 40 minute projection is way off for him. I expect Amare to score a bit more than that, but that's about it.

They don't seem that far fetched to me.
Well if he's saying Kobe and Amere will decline, then i guess it's fine. Although he will probably be wrong about Kobe.:D

[Rose]

Sonofabitch. I thought you only needed green to give green. I guess you need 10 points to give green (which, thanks to you, I now have!). :cheers:
:cheers: I thought for awhile you did too. But then another guy I know on here couldn't give any rep, and then I figured out the problem.

[OnceInADECADE]

Covered, I repped him for you.


thanks dude

[G-train]

Sam Young gets so many turnovers and is a poor dribbler because he is a tweener forward in the mould of Jamieson, but he is playing guard.

[Rose]

Sam Young gets so many turnovers and is a poor dribbler because he is a tweener forward in the mould of Jamieson, but he is playing guard.
I agree with you.

[creepingdeath]

It'd be great if u could post the Mavs' ratings, too! :rockon:

[Rose]

It'd be great if u could post the Mavs' ratings, too! :rockon:
Ask and you shall receive !

[Rose]

JASON KIDD, PG
Projection: 9.6 pts, 6.5 reb, 9.0 ast per 40 min; 13.16 PER | Player card

[Rose]

TYSON CHANDLER, C
Projection: 12.1 pts, 11.3 reb, 0.6 ast per 40 min; 13.35 PER | Player card

[mudyez]

can anyone post it for atlanta or sactown?

[boozehound]

40 odd rep points for the pistons please!

[magnax1]

God dang, Kidd gets 10-10 basically, and only gets a 14 per? Hollinger's system really hates point guards.

[Rose]

ATL, sactown and Deeeeetroit coming on up

[YouCallILose]

God dang, Kidd gets 10-10 basically, and only gets a 14 per? Hollinger's system really hates inefficient scorers.

FIFY. the reason his PER is so low is due to the fact his TS% has always been sub 50 which is essentially garbage.

[Rose]

JEFF TEAGUE, PG
Projection: 13.7 pts, 3.6 reb, 7.0 ast per 40 min; 12.16 PER | Player card

[Rose]

JAMAL CRAWFORD, G
Projection: 20.5 pts, 3.1 reb, 3.8 ast per 40 min; 16.02 PER | Player card

[Rose]

BENO UDRIH, PG
Projection: 15.9 pts, 3.6 reb, 5.8 ast per 40 min; 14.69 PER | Player card

[Rose]

DONTE GREENE, SF
Projection: 6.7 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.8 ast per 40 min; 11.84 PER | Player card

[Rose]

RODNEY STUCKEY, PG
Projection: 19.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.5 ast per 40 min; 15.73 PER | Player card

[Rose]

WILL BYNUM, PG
Projection: 15.3 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.5 ast per 40 min; 13.65 PER | Player card

[Copperhead]

Hollinger thinks Billups will average 22ppg?

[Rose]

Hollinger thinks Billups will average 22ppg?
If he plays 40 minutes a game...yes.

[Copperhead]

If he plays 40 minutes a game...yes.

Oh ok. Gotcha. What does he predict for Chris Paul and David West?

[Rose]

Oh ok. Gotcha. What does he predict for Chris Paul and David West?
Hornets coming right up!

[Rose]

CHRIS PAUL, PG
Projection: 20.3 pts, 4.7 reb, 12.0 ast per 40 min; 25.66 PER | Player card

[Rose]

AARON GRAY, C
No projection | Player card

[Copperhead]

Much appreciated Rose. Repped!

[Rose]

Much appreciated Rose. Repped!
Anytime my friend. :cheers:

[chips93]

could anybody paste the warriors one???

[chips93]

. . . rep will be provided of course . . .

[Rose]

STEPHEN CURRY, PG
Projection: 20.8 pts, 4.8 reb, 6.3 ast per 40 min; 17.57 PER | Player card

[Rose]

No projection | Player card

[chips93]

thanks repped

[TMac&Luther]

Could you please post the Houston Rockets? That would be great. :)

[Rose]

Could you please post the Houston Rockets? That would be great. :)
Ugh espn changed their links around hold on

[Rose]

AARON BROOKS, PG
Projection: 21.2 pts, 3.2 reb, 5.5 ast per 40 min; 16.27 PER | Player card

[Rose]

BRAD MILLER, C
Projection: 14.0 pts, 8.5 reb, 3.3 ast per 40 min; 12.93 PER | Player card

[mudyez]

how about the raptors (do they have any players left worth talking about?)?

thanks in advance!

[AI3Anthony]

Atlanta Hawks please?

Will Rep.

[Doranku]

Seriously lost it reading the Lakers ratings. :oldlol: @ Bynum having the best PER on the team and averaging 21/12 per 40.

How does this guy have a job, again?

[mudyez]

Atlanta Hawks please?

Will Rep.

already at site 10 or 11

plz someone give us the raptors and cavs?!

[SinJackal]

Seriously lost it reading the Lakers ratings. :oldlol: @ Bynum having the best PER on the team and averaging 21/12 per 40.

How does this guy have a job, again?

Per 40 minutes played. Not per game. Bynum does not play anywhere near 40 mpg. DeJuan Blair for example, averaged only 7.8/6.4 per game last year, but his "per 40" stats were something ridiculous like 17.1/14.1. Per 40 stats always look way better than players actually tend to perform at (unless they play 40 MPG that is).

Though even then, 20/12 per 40 minutes is basically better than he's ever been, and I don't see that happening.

[mudyez]

???

[Skywalker]

http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/2/Star_Trek_-_In_Before_the_Lock.gif

[Rose]

been away from the compy for the bulk of the past few days one sec for cavs and raptors

[Rose]

MO WILLIAMS, PG
Projection: 18.1 pts, 3.5 reb, 5.9 ast per 40 min; 15.54 PER | Player card

[Rose]

JAMARIO MOON, SF
Projection: 10.8 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.8 ast per 40 min; 11.94 PER | Player card

[Rose]

JARRETT JACK, PG
Projection: 16.0 pts, 3.9 reb, 6.9 ast per 40 min; 15.14 PER | Player card

[Rose]

LEANDRO BARBOSA, SG
Projection: 20.2 pts, 3.6 reb, 3.4 ast per 40 min; 14.38 PER | Player card

[mudyez]

thank you so much Rose!

[mudyez]

can you give us philly, charlotte and orlando?

that way we would have all teams completed!

thanks in advance!!!...its very interesting and reading it, makes me think of becoming an insider too!

[Droid101]

can you give us philly, charlotte and orlando?

that way we would have all teams completed!

thanks in advance!!!...its very interesting and reading it, makes me think of becoming an insider too!
I'll get these Rose. Take a break, relax! :D

[Droid101]

JRUE HOLIDAY, PG Projection: 14.9 pts, 4.4 reb, 6.4 ast per 40 min; 13.91 PER | Player card

[Droid101]

SPENCER HAWES, C Projection: 17.1 pts, 9.7 reb, 3.2 ast per 40 min; 14.86 PER | Player card

[Droid101]

SHAUN LIVINGSTON, PG Projection: 13.0 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.9 ast per 40 min; 12.71 PER | Player card

[Droid101]

BORIS DIAW, PF Projection: 12.9 pts, 5.9 reb, 4.3 ast per 40 min; 12.32 PER | Player card

[Droid101]

JAMEER NELSON, PG Projection: 16.9 pts, 4.2 reb, 7.1 ast per 40 min; 15.07 PER | Player card

[Droid101]

RYAN ANDERSON, PF Projection: 21.4 pts, 8.8 reb, 1.6 ast per 40 min; 18.43 PER | Player card

[Rose]

I'll get these Rose. Take a break, relax! :D
Hahah thanks. :lol

[mudyez]

nice work guys!!!

thank you so much!

[mudyez]

can someone give us the milwaukee bench plz?

thanks very much!