Jeremy Lin 2012-2013 salary prediction thread

[just_NONchalant]

It might be a little too early to tell but what do you guys predict he will get offered next year? With Lin playing so well this last week and linsanity erupting, his stock value has obviously risen. Will he be able to sustain it? how much (or little) do you guys think he'll get after its all said and done?

He's currently guaranteed a little under $800K this year. The average NBA salary is around $5.15M


Edit: what do you think his stock value is worth?

[Vienceslav]

Is he one of the few[or the only] NBA player who could actually make more money if he pursued a career in his major rather than playing in the league?:lol

[EoJ]

Is he one of the few[or the only] NBA player who could actually make more money if he pursued a career in his major rather than playing in the league?:lol
no

[bluechox2]

The Contract Statuses of Jeremy Lin and Landry Fields

February 8th, 2012 by Brian Cronin | @Brian_Cronin | Comments | Permalink |

While obviously it is too soon to tell if Jeremy Lin is going to continue his standout play for the New York Knicks, I figured that there was enough uncertainty among the readers about Lin’s future status with the Knicks that I would detail the situation (and discuss Landry Fields’ future, as well).

The Knicks are about to guarantee Jeremy Lin’s full salary, which is a one-year contract for roughly $800,000. Landy Fields, meanwhile, is on the second year of a two-year contract paying him roughly $800,000 a year. Both Lin and Fields will be free agents at the end of this season.

Before I discuss anything, note that the Knicks are over the salary cap for next season but will not be at the luxury tax level. Therefore, they will have both the Bi-Annual Exception (roughly $2 million) and the full mid-level (roughly $5 million) as exceptions (on top of the ability to pay any free agent the minimum salary for that player, which is how they signed Baron Davis and Mike Bibby).

Now on to Lin and Fields. The difference between the two is that Fields is eligible for the so-called “Early Bird Exception,” since he has played for the Knicks for two seasons. Lin, on the other hand, has only played one season for the Knicks and is therefore not eligible for any Bird Rights protections.

As an Early Bird player, Fields can be offered a contract that starts at 175% of his current salary or anything up to the average NBA salary (which is roughly $5 million). They can pay Fields this money without affecting their mid-level exception. However, if Fields just signs a one year deal for anything up to the average salary, then the following season the Knicks will have his full Bird Rights and then can re-sign him to a salary larger than the average salary. It really depends on how well Fields plays the rest of the year to determine what kind of deal he signs.

Lin, however, is not an Early Bird player since he has only played one year for the Knicks (while he is in the second year of a two-year deal, Bird Rights are re-set when a player is waived, as Lin has been twice. From Larry Coon’s invaluable Salary Cap FAQ, “If a player is waived and is claimed by another team before he clears waivers, then his Bird clock resets.” Had Lin been traded from the Warriors to the Knicks, he would have Early Bird status like Fields. Instead, the Warriors waived him, as did the Rockets). Therefore, if the Knicks want to re-sign him, they would have to use one of the following:

1. The Non-Bird Exception, where they could pay him up to 125% of his current salary (or roughly $1 million) (Non-Bird Exceptions are typically 120% of a player’s current salary, but since Lin is a restricted free agent, he is eligible for an extra 5% as a qualifying offer)
2. The Bi-Annual exception (which is roughly $2 million) or
3. However much of the mid-level (which is roughly $5 million) they would need to re-sign him.

This is bad news in the sense that if Lin plays well enough to be worth more than the Bi-Annual exception, the Knicks would be in a position where they would have to dip into the mid-level to pay him and if they do that, well, it is hard enough to get Steve Nash to come play for just the mid-level, see what he would do if you couldn’t even offer him $3 million. It wouldn’t be pretty.

One additional wrinkle is the ability of other teams to snatch Fields and Lin away from the Knicks. Both Fields and Lin are technically restricted free agents. However, due to the so-called “Gilbert Arenas provision,” other teams are limited in what they can offer Fields and Lin. They can only offer them up to the full mid-level. In the case of Fields, they Knicks would be able to match any offer and not have to touch their own mid-level exception (since they have Early Bird Rights on Fields). With Lin, though, they’d have to dip into their mid-level exception.

So, as things stand, Fields is pretty much guaranteed to be a Knick next season if the Knicks want him (which they certainly seem to) while Lin…it is tricky. If he plays this well for the rest of the season, I suppose the Knicks would pretty much have to pick him over Steve Nash, right? In that case, if I’m Lin, I’m asking for the full mid-level for 2 years at which point he would be eligible for full Bird Rights (since he would have been on the Knicks for three straight years) and then he could get a substantial raise. I guess he could also be more conservative and just say the full mid-level period for five years. The trouble comes in if he plays somewhere in between great and mediocre. If he’s good enough to make more than the Bi-Annual exception (roughly $2 million) but not good enough that you’d want to pass on Steve Nash, then I guess they’d lose him if anyone offers him more than the Bi-Annual Exception. However, if the Knicks want to keep him at all costs (as in using the entire mid-level on him), they can. It’s going to be interesting to see how it turns out.

Thanks to the man, the myth, the legend Larry Coon and his Salary Cap FAQ for the ground rules of this discussion. Read them for some other tricky stuff about the Gilbert Arenas provision that have not, to my knowledge, ever come up before so I didn’t address them but I guess they could (like how a team can backload a contract for a player like Fields so that the overall deal could be 4 years/$40 million).

EDITED TO ADD: Despite saying in his FAQ “If a player is waived and is claimed by another team before he clears waivers, then his Bird clock resets,” Larry Coon now says that if that happens, a player does not lose his Bird Rights. If that is the case, then the Knicks would, in fact, own Lin’s Early Bird Rights. In which case they can do the same thing with Lin that they can do with Fields, which is to say that he can be signed for any amount up to the mid-level salary without having to touch the Knicks’ own mid-level exeception (and other teams would be limited to offering the mid-level for Lin, so the Knicks could match if they wish).
this

[Sarcastic]

The Knicks just guaranteed his contract for $800k. That's better than he would make in his first few years in finance.

[KBryant24]

[QUOTE]This is bad news in the sense that if Lin plays well enough to be worth more than the Bi-Annual exception, the Knicks would be in a position where they would have to dip into the mid-level to pay him and if they do that, well, it is hard enough to get Steve Nash to come play for just the mid-level, see what he would do if you couldn

[9512]

He made some fans in the process ( of all races). Ability is not the only thing that factors in for contracts.

[just_NONchalant]

this

Good info but bummers to him. In that case, What do you guys think his stock value is worth then if you didnt take into consideration of above.

[lakers87]

That Harvard econ degree isn't going away. The guy's what 23,24 years old? Even if he isn't following the market as closely as GS 1st year analyst, I don't think he'll have a problem getting a job at any of the bulge brackets. Factor in his ethnicity and just the PR involved, that's risk mitigation at the highest.

But instead of working as full time associate, if I were him, I would leverage this in becoming an independent rainmaker. Structure it as a JV with SPV's or SPAC's with the amount of money that NBA players make, perhaps we'd hear less about nba players going broke couple years into their retirement.

[niko]

If he plays this well he'll start, and we won't need Nash. The fact we cannot afford Nash makes me giddy. I don't want Phoenix Suns east. :applause: I don't want MDA security blanket.

This to me is a no brainer, if he keeps playing like this, pay him, if he does not, we won't care.

[GOBB]

such bullshit
so if lin continues to average 20-10 the rest of the year he would only be able to make the mid level exception. he can't even leave the knicks to sign a larger deal at all.

Hardly BS considering Lin wont come close do doing what your scenerio presents.

[bagelred]

My understanding is Fields is restricted but Lin is not. HOWEVER, Knicks do have Lin's Early Bird rights.

Lin was not picked up in free agency. He was picked up off WAIVERS. So my understanding is that's just like as if he was traded to the Knicks. Therefore, Knicks have Lin's early Bird Rights. But even Larry Coon, NBA Salary Cap expert, isn't sure what happens with Lin exactly.

[1rkrage]

MAX

[bluechox2]

MAX
the max he can get is the mle from any team, and the knicks can match that offer and it wont eat their own mle

[bagelred]

the max he can get is the mle from any team, and the knicks can match that offer and it wont eat their own mle

Lin is not restricted. He was not a draft pick, remember? He got a 2 year contract from GSW and that's it. So now he's unrestricted. There isn't any "matching".

However, I believe Knicks have Early Bird rights so they can give Lin what they want and not use other exceptions.

[hawkfan]

The Knicks would give him $5 million next season, either via MLE or Early Bird rights.

[inclinerator]

over 9000 million dollars

[niko]

Lin is not restricted. He was not a draft pick, remember? He got a 2 year contract from GSW and that's it. So now he's unrestricted. There isn't any "matching".

However, I believe Knicks have Early Bird rights so they can give Lin what they want and not use other exceptions.
:applause: respect the knowledge.

[GOBB]

The Knicks would give him $5 million next season, either via MLE or Early Bird rights.

NYK cant be that stuuuuuup...wait :oldlol:

[burnsy87]

Is he one of the few[or the only] NBA player who could actually make more money if he pursued a career in his major rather than playing in the league?:lol

Do you honestly think most people that work in Finance/Accounting/any economic field are pulling in nearly a million a year?

I have a Masters in accountancy and am a CPA. You could multiply my salary numerous times and not hit 800k.

[hawkfan]

NYK cant be that stuuuuuup...wait :oldlol:

Let's see how Lin does the rest of the season.
If he really does average 20 ppg and 8 apg, then 5 million is real cheap.
And this is the Knicks we are talking about - they don't have anyone else at point guard.

So far, Lin has performed well against Deron Williams, Devin Harris and now John Wall - not too shabby competition.

[bagelred]

:applause: respect the knowledge.

So the situation is this, as far as I understand it:

Landry Fields - RESTRICTED free agent, because he was a draft pick. As a 2nd round pick, Knicks can match any offer from another team, and the offer CANNOT be above the average NBA salary. Therefore, if Knicks still want Fields, he will be a Knicks.

Jeremy Lin - UNRESTRICTED free agent, because he was NOT drafted by anyone. Anyone can offer him ANYTHING, even Max money. No restrictions. So Knicks could easily lose him. However, the Knicks CAN use Early Bird exception (I think), to offer Lin the average NBA salary ($5 million or so?), without having to use the MLE. If a team offers Lin $10 million a year, Knicks can't match that.


I think that's right.


Not only that, but the Knicks waste so much f-cking salary on Melo, Amare, and Chandler, is Dolan going to shell out huge money for someone else? And start going deep into Luxury Tax?

[niko]

So the situation is this, as far as I understand it:

Landry Fields - RESTRICTED free agent, because he was a draft pick. As a 2nd round pick, Knicks can match any offer from another team, and the offer CANNOT be above the average NBA salary. Therefore, if Knicks still want Fields, he will be a Knicks.

Jeremy Lin - UNRESTRICTED free agent, because he was NOT drafted by anyone. Anyone can offer him ANYTHING, even Max money. No restrictions. So Knicks could easily lose him. However, the Knicks CAN use Early Bird exception (I think), to offer Lin the average NBA salary ($5 million or so?), without having to use the MLE. If a team offers Lin $10 million a year, Knicks can't match that.


I think that's right.


Not only that, but the Knicks waste so much f-cking salary on Melo, Amare, and Chandler, is Dolan going to shell out huge money for someone else? And start going deep into Luxury Tax?
Oh yeah, they've always done that. The Knicks make a ton of money and are a loss leader on the network. A playoff game brings in $6-$8M. ONE playoff game. Plus Lin is asian, and if he's good, he's going to be sick popular. The buzz just really started in Brooklyn in the chinese papers and the asian community. If he keeps this up he will be huge. Pay for himself easily.

Combing for my giants merchandies this week you could see people scouring the Knick pile for shirts. (Note: Why is there no Chandler shirt?)

[bagelred]

Oh yeah, they've always done that. The Knicks make a ton of money and are a loss leader on the network. A playoff game brings in $6-$8M. ONE playoff game. Plus Lin is asian, and if he's good, he's going to be sick popular. The buzz just really started in Brooklyn in the chinese papers and the asian community. If he keeps this up he will be huge. Pay for himself easily.

Combing for my giants merchandies this week you could see people scouring the Knick pile for shirts. (Note: Why is there no Chandler shirt?)

But watch someone like Mark Cuban go nuts and offer Lin $10 million a year. Knicks can't match that.

[Sarcastic]

But watch someone like Mark Cuban go nuts and offer Lin $10 million a year. Knicks can't match that.

He wants Deron Williams.

[niko]

If lin is good, we'll pay to keep him. The Knicks plan was always to use the MLE on a PG anyway.

[niko]

But watch someone like Mark Cuban go nuts and offer Lin $10 million a year. Knicks can't match that.
You just get a deal done as soon as FA starts. The teams with that kind of cap money will be trying for bigger scores. 2 Years, MLE (assuming he keeps playing well). He'll want two years to have contract end with full bird rights. We'll like price. Win/Win.

Not really worried on this. More worried on our team gelling sometime before i die.

[blablabla]

can they extend his contract right now for a higher salary (let's say 4-6 million a year)with the early bird right
then we would have a high risk high reward opportunity

[GOBB]

can they extend his contract right now for a higher salary (let's say 4-6 million a year)with the early bird right
then we would have a high risk high reward opportunity

Why right now as opposed to seeing the rest of the season.

[blablabla]

Why right now as opposed to seeing the rest of the season.
if he plays amazing till the end of the season including playoffs a team with a lot of capspace will throw a bad amount of money at him and the knicks lose
him
but that seems unlikely anyway
forget what i said

[HurricaneKid]

Why right now as opposed to seeing the rest of the season.

Exactly. Lets calm down. Lets see how he does against teams that aren't the Nets, Wizards, etc. The Knicks are in the drivers seat. This is a guy that was in the NBDL on Jan 20th. Lets not go giving him a max deal just yet.

[HurricaneKid]

I'd also like to point out that Wesley Matthews has a better deal than Blake Griffin. They came out the same year and Blake went #1. Matthews was an undrafted FA and got a 1 yr deal. The Blazers liked what they saw enough to give him a bigger deal after one year than the #1 overall pick had gotten. If Lin keeps this up he will do just fine.

[Sarcastic]

The only team I would be scared to lose him to is Golden State, since that's the team he grew up liking. With the endorsements he can get in NY from the huge Asian community, I don't see him leaving for anywhere else (other than GS).

[June1026]

NYK cant be that stuuuuuup...wait :oldlol:

5 Mill is ****ing cheap for the highest IQ in the league, did you even watch him play, the guy's cognitive and emotional intelligence is ridiculous on both ends, this is the type of guy that deserves good money, not the physically superior. This guy can have more impact on this team than Melo can. Keep on hating, just remember to eat back your own sht when this guy lead knicks to the playoffs.

[GOBB]

5 Mill is ****ing cheap for the highest IQ in the league, did you even watch him play, the guy's cognitive and emotional intelligence is ridiculous on both ends, this is the type of guy that deserves good money, not the physically superior. This guy can have more impact on this team than Melo can. Keep on hating, just remember to eat back your own sht when this guy lead knicks to the playoffs.

Yes 3 games vs bad defenses deserves $5mil after he was called up from NBDL. You're stupid. Overpay the kid if you want.

[Figlo]

I'm gonna go on a Linb and say max deal

[DuMa]

you kidding me with this MLE shit? MAX money. complete domination of the chinese market

[MeLO MvP 15]

I hope Coon is right that we could re-sign him for the average NBA salary with early Bird rights (around $5 mil- if he keeps this up) because no other team will be allowed to give him more (rules as stated earlier, you can't go from $800k as a 2nd/3rd year player to a MAX guy or anything about the average salary). It's kinda like with Wes Mathews, the max he could've made was the MLE (which is what he got). And it'll be the same with Landry Fields too.

NY better re-sign these guys. We need to build some conistency. All the good teams have had a core together for a few years. That doesn't mean you can't go out and make moves, it just means there should be like 6-8 guys that stay on the roster and build chemistry IMO. With us it should be Melo, Amar'e, Tyson, Shumpert, Landry, Lin and Harrelson. Perfect mix of vets and young guys. And if Lin keeps it up, we could end up going after a wing or 6th man instead of a PG in the summer. If Wilson Chandler takes a one year from Denver when he comes back (likely), he could be unrestricted this summer and we could end up re-signing Landry and Lin while keeping our MLE for a guy like Wilson (if he takes the MLE which is a pay cut for him).

[niko]

Yes 3 games vs bad defenses deserves $5mil after he was called up from NBDL. You're stupid. Overpay the kid if you want.
The assumption is he continues to play in this same type of competent manner, i don't think the discussion is reup him tomorrow. If he puts up, let's say 12-8 for the season, $10M on 2 years is not terrible, a little overpaid but considering how over the cap we are, who cares?

if he starts sucking this discussion is pretty easily finished.