Lebron vs. Durant - Analyzing every possession

[Grinder]

Second meeting: Lebron James (+51) defeats Kevin Durant (+18) by 33. (http://hoopsgrind.com/2012/04/04/lebron-james-vs-kevin-durant-analyzing-every-possession-part-2/)


First meeting: Kevin Durant (+47) defeats Lebron James (+14.5) by 32.5. (http://hoopsgrind.com/2012/03/25/lebron-james-vs-kevin-durant/)

Point system:

+3 bonus for any basket scored in the final 2 minutes of the game if the difference is ≤5 points
+2 for each foul drawn, blocked shot, steal on the other
+2 for forcing a missed shot on each other
+2 for taking a charge
+1 for each assist
+1 for any pass leading to free throws
+1 for each rebound/assist/steal/block on anyone else etc.
+1 for each point scored on anyone else
+1 bonus for scoring on each other
+1 for forcing a missed shot on anyone else
+0.5 for forcing a jump ball, saving a possession by diving for a loose ball, hustle plays, etc.
+0.5 for a screen leading to a made basket
-1 for getting scored on by anyone else
-1 for a shooting foul or foul in the opposing half
-1 for a missed shot
-2 for a turnover
-2 for a technical/flagrant foul

[Alamo]

:rockon:

[D-Wade316]

Better point system (http://www.backpicks.com/2011/03/20/expected-value-ev/)

[rodman91]

http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/2/popcorn_2.gif

[Grinder]

Better point system (http://www.backpicks.com/2011/03/20/expected-value-ev/)

Thanks, that was a good read. I like that, but I want something without decimals that can be done live during the game. Using that scoring system would take hours and hours one the DVR going back and making sure you didn't miss anything.

[LBJDW305]

Its better to just watch them play and see who wins. Heat have 2 good defenders for durant. I'm guessing wade on Westbrook because chalmers will foul out in the first half trying to stop him. IMO these are the top 2 teams good showdown tonight

[Jotaro Durant]

damn nikka juss watch the game:biggums:

[Jasi]

I'm leaning towards using the Lin vs. Rose one except maybe +1 for each assist rather than +2. Suggestions would be appreciated.
I'd use this one.

But here:

+3 bonus for any basket scored in the final 3 minutes of the game if the difference is ≤5 points
make it 24 seconds with a potential game winning or tying shot.

Also:

I want to objectively see who comes out on top in this individual matchup using a point system. :no:
This point comparison is fun, but hardly objective, first of all because the +/- are discretional, second because stats are never objective, they only sum up things without saying anything about the context.

[chips93]

sounds cool

if you could put more of a weight on the scoring though

say, if lebron leaves durant to double somebody else, and lebron hits a jumper, against durant closing out, is that the same as say, lebron backing him down and scoring on him one-on-one

if you could take this into account it would be great, but that might get a bit complicated

[TheMarkMadsen]

damn nikka juss watch the game:biggums:


They eye test > errything

[Jotaro Durant]

They eye test > errything
:cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:

[Grinder]

I'd use this one.

But here:

make it 24 seconds with a potential game winning or tying shot.

Also:
:no:
This point comparison is fun, but hardly objective, first of all because the +/- are discretional, second because stats are never objective, they only sum up things without saying anything about the context.

Thanks for the input Jasi. I think 24 seconds is too little, I think I'll go with the last 1:30.

True, it'll never be completely objective, but you know what I mean.



sounds cool

if you could put more of a weight on the scoring though

say, if lebron leaves durant to double somebody else, and lebron hits a jumper, against durant closing out, is that the same as say, lebron backing him down and scoring on him one-on-one

if you could take this into account it would be great, but that might get a bit complicated

Thanks for the suggestion - this is more or less what I did last time. A late closeout only counts as scoring on the other player if it's a totally blown rotation. I'm thinking about adding a +1 for scoring on a double team though.

btw, do you really live in Ireland? I was just in Dublin a few weeks ago. Didn't seem like anyone really cared about basketball whatsoever.

[nathanjizzle]

doo it up man, youll notice how lebron will do great for 3 quarters and maybe a half. Even hitting crazy 3s to get the heat back in the game in the last 5 minutes. Then he will start passing the ball to wade.

[talkingconch]

doo it up man, youll notice how lebron will do great for 3 quarters and maybe a half. Even hitting crazy 3s to get the heat back in the game in the last 5 minutes. Then he will start passing the ball to wade.
http://250kb.de/u/110522/g/dklxSPMU3XIu.gif

[Grinder]

Should extra points be awarded for scoring on each other or just keep it the same through out?

[Bladers]

Should extra points be awarded for scoring on each other or just keep it the same through out?

Yep extra points.

Lebron about to be slaughtered, not surprised their fanboys are against this.

[chairman]

Should extra points be awarded for scoring on each other or just keep it the same through out?
Yes extra points

[LamarOdom]

Make it like this (scoring)

0,5pt= 1/ft
1pt= 2pt fg
2pt= 3pt fg

Then if the points scored was made while guarded by the other one extra point awarded.

[zizozain]

no points for mental errors?

[Grinder]

Make it like this (scoring)

0,5pt= 1/ft
1pt= 2pt fg
2pt= 3pt fg

Then if the points scored was made while guarded by the other one extra point awarded.

Too little importance on points then IMO.


no points for mental errors?

Too arbitrary to label something a mental error/not.

Thanks to everyone for the input. I took all your suggestions into consideration and settled on this:



+3 bonus for any basket scored in the final 2 minutes of the game if the difference is ≤5 points
+2 for each foul drawn, blocked shot, steal on the other
+2 for each assist
+1 for any pass leading to free throws
+1 for each rebound/assist/steal/block on anyone else etc.
+1 for each point scored on anyone else
+1 bonus for scoring on each other
-1 for getting scored on by anyone else
-1 for a shooting foul or foul in the opposing half
-1 for a missed shot
-2 for a turnover
-2 for a technical/flagrant foul

You can find it here - it'll be updated live at every commercial break. (http://hoopsgrind.com/2012/03/25/lebron-james-vs-kevin-durant/)


If you guys feel that the system is broken or don't agree with it, we can always tweak it after the game and I can go back and fix it/rewatch it on the DVR.

[Jasi]

^ I think you give too many points for assists.
+2 for an assist? Too much. Same with +1 for passes that lead to free throws.
I'd make it +1 and +0.5 respectively, otherwise increase the points for scoring.

[Grinder]

^ I think you give too many points for assists.
+2 for an assist? Too much. Same with +1 for passes that lead to free throws.
I'd make it +1 and +0.5 respectively, otherwise increase the points for scoring.
Fair enough, I'll change an assist to +1. Hmm, I'll have to think about changing a pass that leads to free throws to .5.

[Lord Leoshes]

Grinder

How would you rate the defensive end?

[LoneyROY7]

A freaking point system?

You motherf***ers are crazy.

[Inactive]

stats are never objective, they only sum up things without saying anything about the context.They are objective.

If you score 4 points, and another guy scored 6, he outscored you. There's nothing subjective about that (unless you want to be incredibly nit picky).

When you interpret that information "Oh well I scored my points on difficult shots, while the game was on the line. He scored his on assisted layups, in garbage minutes. Therefor my 4 > his 6." it becomes subjective. Both stats (objective), and interpretation (subjective) are important.

[dunksby]

This is a good idea and all but it's pointless as long as it is applied to a regular season game, if the two were going at it in the Finals then it would serve a point.

[Grinder]

Grinder

How would you rate the defensive end?

I've added this in addition to the block/steal points:
+2 for forcing a missed shot on each other
+1 for forcing a missed shot on anyone else

Forcing a missed shot = a good closeout, lock down man to man defense, good help defense forcing a miss

[dunksby]

They are objective.

If you score 4 points, and another guy scored 6, he outscored you. There's nothing subjective about that (unless you want to be incredibly nit picky).

When you interpret that information "Oh well I scored my points on difficult shots, while the game was on the line. He scored his on assisted layups, in garbage minutes. Therefor my 4 > his 6." it becomes subjective. Both stats (objective), and interpretation (subjective) are important.
Stats are a limited a representative of what went down in the game but they wont tell you the whole story since they are not capable of that, similar to how language will never be able to commute what people feel/think/believe/want to others.

[Lord Leoshes]

I've added this in addition to the block/steal points:
+2 for forcing a missed shot on each other
+1 for forcing a missed shot on anyone else

Forcing a missed shot = a good closeout, lock down man to man defense, good help defense forcing a miss


What about charges taken, as well as blitzing & recovering on the pick-n-roll?
What about energy plays like diving to the ground for lose balls, forcing jump balls, forcing offensive, & defensive 5 sec in the paint?
Or setting good screens, for open looks on offense?

Just a few things i think might help.

[Inactive]

Stats are a limited a representative of what went down in the game but they wont tell you the whole story since they are not capable of that, similar to how language will never be able to commute what people feel/think/believe/want to others.Right. They're still objective. 4 < 6. That doesn't mean that a guy who scores 6 is necessarily a better scorer, than a guy who scored 4. That would be a prediction about future performances, and many times an interpretation is more valuable for making predictions. It just means that he did score more, in the past.

[Grinder]

What about charges taken, as well as blitzing & recovering on the pick-n-roll?
What about energy plays like diving to the ground for lose balls, forcing jump balls, forcing offensive, & defensive 5 sec in the paint?
Or setting good screens, for open looks on offense?

Just a few things i think might help.
Wow, these are all great suggestions, thanks. I've added most of these (0.5 for hustle plays, +2 for taking a charge)

[T.O.RapsJays]

Are you planning on giving each a score for both categories? Like one total score for defense and one total score for offense and of course an overall to judge who had the better game.

[dunksby]

Right. They're still objective. 4 < 6. That doesn't mean that a guy who scores 6 is necessarily a better scorer, than a guy who scored 4. That would be a prediction about future performances, and many times an interpretation is more valuable for making predictions. It just means that he did score more, in the past.
That is why it is crucial to watch the games and bring the stats into context so one can interpret the stats fully and reach a conclusion for himself.

[Inactive]

That is why it is crucial to watch the games and bring the stats into context so one can interpret the stats fully and reach a conclusion for himself.Didn't I say subjective interpretation was important, in my first post? What about my posts did you disagree with?

[Grinder]

(+8) for James and (+14.5) for Durant after one quarter.

I'll need to re-watch the first 6 minutes of the first quarter though. Feel as if I may have missed one or two things.

[Jasi]

Didn't I say subjective interpretation was important, in my first post? What about my posts did you disagree with?
Yeah I agree with you, stats are indeed objective, what I meant was the player comparisons based on stats are not.
If I score 6 and you score 4, it's objective that 6 > 4, but it's far from objective that I > you.

And while I think you're well aware of it, 90% of ISHers aren't.

[Blue&Orange]

Point system:
What's the points for a thick dual headband? It can surely tip the game in Lebron's favor.

[Lebron23]

What's the points for a thick dual headband? It can surely tip the game in Lebron's favor.

It's thick as Carmelo Anthony's V@gina.

[heyhey]

It's thick as Carmelo Anthony's ******.
:biggums:

when u gonna break out Durant35 account full time tho?

[Grinder]

Kevin Durant (+47) defeats Lebron James (+14.5) by 32.5. (http://hoopsgrind.com/2012/03/25/lebron-james-vs-kevin-durant/)

[Jotaro Durant]

Kevin Durant (+47) defeats Lebron James (+14.5) by 32.5. (http://hoopsgrind.com/2012/03/25/lebron-james-vs-kevin-durant/)
very interesting. good job bro:cheers:

[Indian guy]

Durant's simply the better basketball player. Better shooter, slasher, leader, and more clutch. Flat out better and he's been proving it every time they have shared the court the last 2 seasons. Those exhibition games this past summer were most telling, I thought, with the way Durant was juking and breaking LeBron off the dribble. Humiliating him possession-after-possession, and all LeBron had for a response was step back jumpers.

[zizozain]

good job Grinder

wow .. Kevin Durant :applause: :applause:

[nbacardDOTnet]

http://i304.photobucket.com/albums/nn200/nbacardDOTnet/zz%20NBA%20Photo%20Gallery/z%20Funny%20NBA%20Photos/Others%20Masterpiece/0%20queen%20lebron%20james/-.gif

[Grinder]

Thanks fellas. I'll have to see what the next matchup I can do this for is and keep tweaking the point system. :cheers:

[dunksby]

As long as you award a point for every positive and influential play you are good.

[Cowboy Thunder]

http://i304.photobucket.com/albums/nn200/nbacardDOTnet/zz%20NBA%20Photo%20Gallery/z%20Funny%20NBA%20Photos/Others%20Masterpiece/0%20queen%20lebron%20james/-.gif

Freek is the best on the net :bowdown:

[All Net]

Thanks fellas. I'll have to see what the next matchup I can do this for is and keep tweaking the point system. :cheers:

Good stuff.

[Bladers]

Thanks fellas. I'll have to see what the next matchup I can do this for is and keep tweaking the point system. :cheers:

You should do the thunder and lakers game.

[yanix]

do this more please
thanks

[pauk]

Can you analyse the other 7 games aswell? Where Lebron won 6 and Durant 1 ?

Can you analyse how they did overall in the playoffs to?

[Jasi]

:roll: :roll: :roll:

[archkiller]

I like durant. He will be the new Jordan, while lebron will be the new Malone
:biggums:

[dunksby]

Can you analyse the other 7 games aswell? Where Lebron won 6 and Durant 1 ?

Can you analyse how they did overall in the playoffs to?
Analyze this:


















































Same as 6 out of 7 times... Lebron toying with Durant...

Durant has still not scored a basket on Lebron (without screening him of using 2-3 teammates)

Im watching the game where Durant is trying to screen Lebron of for deer life all the time.... he has still not scored a basket on Lebron.... but Lebron has... and defensively he has been shutting him down man-to-man, did you watch the game?

Durant had:
one catch n shoot 3pt shot on Wade, of screen
one catch n shoot shot, of screen
one layup, of screen

Lebron had:
one jumpshot in Durants face, no usage of screens
one fastbreak dunk after a steal on Durant, no usage of screens
one hook shot on Harden, no usage of screens

[PyrrhusX]

Can you analyse the other 7 games aswell? Where Lebron won 6 and Durant 1 ?

Can you analyse how they did overall in the playoffs to?

Why cant you give credit when credit is due?
:coleman:

[dunksby]

Why cant you give credit when credit is due?
:coleman:
pauk has a rep to maintain :biggums:

[chips93]

when did screns become cowardly?

[OKCThunderUP]

Analyze this:

lolpauk

I can think of at least 2 buckets KD scored by crossing over Lebron and stepping back. One was a LOOOONG two and the other was right at the elbow.

Edit: And speaking of KD trying to score on Lebron: Lebron went 1-6 in iso against KD. Just sayin.

[maybeshewill13]

Can you analyse the other 7 games aswell? Where Lebron won 6 and Durant 1 ?

Can you analyse how they did overall in the playoffs to?

You mean prime Lebron (supposed to be one of the GOAT right, according to you?) beat a 20-21 year old KD a few times?

MY GOD!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

Someone's living in the past mannn. That's ok, the past is all you have to hold onto, because KD is now and the future :bowdown: :bowdown:

[Eat Like A Bosh]

Kevin Durant definitely got the best of LeBron last night. Yeah Buddy. :rockon: :lebron:

[Jasi]

You mean prime Lebron (supposed to be one of the GOAT right, according to you?) beat a 20-21 year old KD a few times?

MY GOD!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

Someone's living in the past mannn. That's ok, the past is all you have to hold onto, because KD is now and the future :bowdown: :bowdown:

The same past where LeBron is ringless, by the way.
But when you remind him of this, then he switches from living in the past to living in a fantasy future where LeSupposed gets 4 FMVPs.
He never lives in the present :D

[Grinder]

What do you guys think? Do this again for today's game?

[Jasi]

What do you guys think? Do this again for today's game?
Sure.
If we repeat the same exercise in similar conditions, we can test its consistency :lol

[dunksby]

What do you guys think? Do this again for today's game?
It's only fair that you do.

[Grinder]

Part 2 can be found here and will be updated at the end of each quarter. (http://hoopsgrind.com/2012/04/04/lebron-james-vs-kevin-durant-analyzing-every-possession-part-2/)

[pauk]

I think the outcome & performance of tonights game between Lebron-Durant might somewhat decide who will win the MVP... even then im not sure... because one guy might go ham for the rest of the season and steal away the MVP even if he loses tonight while the other guy doesnt play so well...

Its a ridicilously tight MVP race

[Grinder]

Please let me know if you disagree with any of the points awarded during the game, especially the +/-0.5 categories since they're easy to overlook.

I'll be a few minutes behind on the DVR to make sure I get everything as close as possible.

[Grinder]

Lebron James (+51) defeats Kevin Durant (+18) by 33 points.
(http://hoopsgrind.com/2012/04/04/lebron-james-vs-kevin-durant-analyzing-every-possession-part-2/)

[Grinder]

Looks like Joyner found my blog. Of course he doesn't fail to mention TS%. :lol

[jlip]

Looks like Joyner found my blog. Of course he doesn't fail to mention TS%. :lol

[I][B]28Renyoy says:
April 4, 2012 at 10:25 PM I like how all Lebron fans come out of hiding all of a sudden. Durant has a better TS% and one of the most efficient scoring years of all time. He

[creepingdeath]

[QUOTE=jlip][I][B]28Renyoy says:
April 4, 2012 at 10:25 PM I like how all Lebron fans come out of hiding all of a sudden. Durant has a better TS% and one of the most efficient scoring years of all time. He