Non-Assisted FG%: The Stat for Shot Creators

[AAckley1]

While I was fooling around in excel to determine a "Nash Effect" in terms of shooting % increases, I got the idea for a new stat that essentially allows you to see how able a player is at creating their own shot.

The Math:

AST%(82games version) x FGM = Number of FG player made that were assisted.
FGA - ASTFGM = Non-assisted attempts
(FGM-ASTFGM) / Non-assisted attempts = Players Non-Assisted FG%

The Results:

Of players who attempted atleast 750 shots in the 11-12 season, Chris Paul had the highest NAFG%, hitting 42.8% of them. Next was LeBron with 41.7%, closely followed by Tony Parker with 41.5%.

Of the 51 players who met the criteria, 10 players had NAFg% that were +5% or greater than the sample average of 28.5%. Those players were Paul, James, Parker, Westbrook (39.9%), Lawson (37.5%), Wade (37.2%), Monroe (36.6%), Wall (36.4%), Evans (35%) & Durant (33.8%).

Rounding up the bottom of the criteria were the 9 players who had NAFg% that were -5% of the sample average. Leading the way is Nick Young (22.9%), Derozen (20.8%), Gortat (20.77%), Deng (19.7%), Garnett (19.6%) Harrington (19.5%) & Anderson (17.4%). However, there was someone considerably worse than all these players, who was so terrible at NAFgs that one would wonder why he attempted so many. That would be Antwan Jamison, who shot a horrendous 12.9% on FGs that weren't assisted.


Recap:

It's interesting to note that only 5 players had above average NAFg% while also receiving an above average Ast%, all of which were bigs. Piston fans have to be excited to know Greg Monroe's NAFg% was shockingly high, the highest for any post player by nearly 5%; while Brandon Knight was the only rookie in the criteria, just barely below the average.


I shall be posting previous seasons, as well as more detailed breakdowns of specific players in the coming months.

[SteveNashMVPcro]

Can you find Nash's numbers,I'm quite sure he's above CP3(although yeah he shot less)

[KBryant24]

respect :cheers:

[SteveNashMVPcro]

So I did the math and got that Nash made 49% of his non assisted shots

[Colbertnation64]

edit: nvm

[IGotACoolStory]

Monroe? :biggums:

Someone get that man a PG.

[IGOTGAME]

good stat! much better than some of the bad new stats I see out there.

:cheers:

[Kblaze8855]

I can see a reason for this existing and it isnt trying to do something I dont think can be done with numbers. So....interesting.

[Raz]

Pretty cool. 49% of the time Nash goes one-on-one against you, he's going to score.

[chazzy]

The only flaw in using this to determine one's ability to create for their self is that it doesn't factor in offensive putbacks. But good work. Interesting to see the low %s

[no pun intended]

Where does Kobe Bryant rank?

[I<3NBA]

Where does Kobe Bryant rank?
someone is going to be disappointed with the answer :yaohappy:

[kuniva_dAMiGhTy]

Great work OP. :applause: CP3 making everyone else better per usual.


Can you find Nash's numbers,I'm quite sure he's above CP3(although yeah he shot less)

I'd also like to see Nash's numbers.

[no pun intended]

someone is going to be disappointed with the answer :yaohappy:
My body is ready to be disappointed. I am really curious. Isn't anyone else?

[NuggetsFan]

Lawson :pimp:

[Vertical-24]

My body is ready to be disappointed. I am really curious. Isn't anyone else?

Definitely. Can someone also do this for MJ? Any year is fine, career is fine.

[josh99]

Very interesting stat. I like :cheers:

[SteveNashMVPcro]

I'd also like to see Nash's numbers.
49% if i did the math right

[Raz]

How would you figure out a player's assisted field goal percentage?

It would have been interesting to see stats like this for Karl Malone during the 90's with Stockton.

[SCdac]

hope the Spurs go after Monroe in a couple years (when it's a new-look Spurs). he'd fit right in.

[fpliii]

How would you figure out a player's assisted field goal percentage?

It would have been interesting to see stats like this for Karl Malone during the 90's with Stockton.

I tried to come up with something:

(1 - AST% / 100) * ((Tm AST - AST) / (Tm FG - FG)) * (20 / USG%)

and got some decent results, but it only works for a certain brand of player

if someone has a large dataset in .csv format, we can take it into R or Stata and run a regression

otherwise you need the play-by-plays

[AAckley1]

How would you figure out a player's assisted field goal percentage?

It would have been interesting to see stats like this for Karl Malone during the 90's with Stockton.

A player's assisted field goal percentage is always going to be 100%. Now, if you're asking what a player's field goal percentage on assist situations, I don't believe the data exists for such a calculation.

[chips93]

That would be Antwan Jamison, who shot a horrendous 12.9% on FGs that weren't assisted.


if you watched him this year, you wouldnt be surprised, dude just threw up garbage

[SuperPippen]

I'd like to see Kevin Love's numbers for this stat.

[Raz]

A player's assisted field goal percentage is always going to be 100%. Now, if you're asking what a player's field goal percentage on assist situations, I don't believe the data exists for such a calculation.

I totally think I phrased that wrong. Thanks for clearing it up.

It would be interesting to see. Like seeing Courtney Lee and Ray Allen's field goal percentages on assist situations. Or Bowen on corner 3's in assist situations.

[Raz]

I'd like to see Kevin Love's numbers for this stat.

25%

[DurantFor40]

What's Westbrook and Durant's?

[oolalaa]

Hang on, doesn't basketball reference already do this?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shooting.cgi?&player_id=bryanko01&year_id=2007

In 06/07 .400% of Kobe's field goals were assisted. That means .600% were unassisted. His FG% was .463%. 60% of .463 = .278 meaning his NAFG% would be 28%. Isn't that basically what you're trying to work out? If so, there might be a flaw in your formula. Or maybe it's basketball reference that's flawed :oldlol: Correct me if I'm completely wrong....

[fpliii]

Hang on, doesn't basketball reference already do this?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shooting.cgi?&player_id=bryanko01&year_id=2007

In 06/07 .400% of Kobe's field goals were assisted. That means .600% were unassisted. Isn't that basically what you're trying to work out? Correct me if I'm completely wrong....

this only goes back to the 00-01 season, since you need play-by-play data to calculate

it works for some guys, but you're out of luck if you want it for guys in the 90s or earlier

[oolalaa]

this only goes back to the 00-01 season, since you need play-by-play data to calculate

it works for some guys, but you're out of luck if you want it for guys in the 90s or earlier

Ye I know, but I don't think the OPs forumula is accurate. It doesn't seem to correlate with bballreference....

[28renyoy]

OP's numbers and formula are seriously wrong.

Ast% is percentage of shots you made that resulted in someone receiving an assist. You also have to take into consideration the amount of shots you MISSED that WOULD have resulted in an assist for someone.

This stat is basically how often you make a basket that would have been assisted.

[oolalaa]

According to bballreference, CP3s NAFG% would be 39.1%, Lebron's would be 33.2% and Parker's would be 36.9%....

Durant....25.8%
Westbrook....35.7%
Tyson Chandler....12.9%

[28renyoy]

According to bballreference, CP3s NAFG% would be 39.1%, Lebron's would be 33.2% and Parker's would be 36.9%....

Durant....25.8%
Westbrook....35.7%
Tyson Chandler....12.9%

These numbers are clearly wrong. 12.9% for Chandler? Just lol

[AAckley1]

Hang on, doesn't basketball reference already do this?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shooting.cgi?&player_id=bryanko01&year_id=2007

In 06/07 .400% of Kobe's field goals were assisted. That means .600% were unassisted. His FG% was .463%. 60% of .463 = .278 meaning his NAFG% would be 28%. Isn't that basically what you're trying to work out? If so, there might be a flaw in your formula. Or maybe it's basketball reference that's flawed :oldlol: Correct me if I'm completely wrong....

Yes, simply multiplying the inverse of his assisted% by his shooting % will also give you the same number. My formula is simply the longer way to go about it so Non-assisted made shots and attempts can be figured as well.

[AAckley1]

These numbers are clearly wrong. 12.9% for Chandler? Just lol


Why would they be wrong? Tyson Chandler has very little offense outside of receiving at the rim passes and alley oops.

[Overdrive]

Why would they be wrong? Tyson Chandler has very little offense outside of receiving at the rim passes and alley oops.

Because you only consider the shots made after a pass(assisted) not the shots taken, not made after a pass.

Let's say "Player A" takes 23 Shots in a game, hits 10 of them of which 40% are assisted.
On his 23 Shots he gets the ball passed on 11 shots.

Now your formula says:

10*0,4= shots total assisted = 4
23-4 = non assisted attempts = 19 and that's where the formula is broken, he took 10 non assisted attempts not 19
[(10-4)/19]*100= non assisted field goals made % = 31,6
Your formula suggest that he only get's the ball passed when he hits an assisted shot and not the assist that would have been if he hit those shots.

For this example it'd be:
6(non assisted field goals made)/12(number of times he didn't get the ball passed)*100 = 50%

[josh99]

Because you only consider the shots made after a pass(assisted) not the shots taken, not made after a pass.

Let's say "Player A" takes 23 Shots in a game, hits 10 of them of which 40% are assisted.
On his 23 Shots he gets the ball passed on 11 shots.

Now your formula says:

10*0,4= shots total assisted = 4
23-4 = non assisted attempts = 19 and that's where the formula is broken, he took 10 non assisted attempts not 19
[(10-4)/19]*100= non assisted field goals made % = 31,6
Your formula suggest that he only get's the ball passed when he hits an assisted shot and not the assist that would have been if he hit those shots.

For this example it'd be:
6(non assisted field goals made)/12(number of times he didn't get the ball passed)*100 = 50%
I haven't checked his formula so I don't know if its accurate but I dont think this applies...

The stat he made creates FG% on non-assisted FG attempts.
Pass + Made Shot = Assist + FG
Pass + Missed Shot = Nothing + Missed FG
No Pass + Made Shot = Nothing + FG
No Pass + Missed Shot = Nothing + Missed FG

The last two are the only ones that affect his calculation, so it doesn't matter if you can't calculate how many shots he missed from passes.

Edit: NVM gotcha, there is no way to statistically differentiate between:
Pass + Missed Shot = Nothing + Missed FG
No Pass + Missed Shot = Nothing + Missed FG
so thus the theory breaks down.

[AAckley1]

Because you only consider the shots made after a pass(assisted) not the shots taken, not made after a pass.

Let's say "Player A" takes 23 Shots in a game, hits 10 of them of which 40% are assisted.
On his 23 Shots he gets the ball passed on 11 shots.

Now your formula says:

10*0,4= shots total assisted = 4
23-4 = non assisted attempts = 19 and that's where the formula is broken, he took 10 non assisted attempts not 19
[(10-4)/19]*100= non assisted field goals made % = 31,6
Your formula suggest that he only get's the ball passed when he hits an assisted shot and not the assist that would have been if he hit those shots.

For this example it'd be:
6(non assisted field goals made)/12(number of times he didn't get the ball passed)*100 = 50%


But because they missed the shot that got passed to him, it no longer is an assist situation.

Using your numbers, the player took 19 non-assisted attempts. He, however, took 13 shots in "assist-situations". To be an assisted attempt, the player MUST make the shot. If they don't make the shot, it can't be an assist.

My stat was made to figure out what a player shoots when he doesn't score directly off of an assist. It really doesn't matter how many times the player is passed to, it matters if they completed the shot after that pass or not.

[InfiniteBaskets]

Hang on, doesn't basketball reference already do this?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shooting.cgi?&player_id=bryanko01&year_id=2007






In 06/07 .400% of Kobe's field goals were assisted. That means .600% were unassisted.

Yes.


His FG% was .463%. 60% of .463 = .278 meaning his NAFG% would be 28%.

Not quite. You can't just multiply is overall field goal percentage by percent of unassisted field goals to get his "field goal percentage when he creates for himself".

His field goal percentage = number of total shots made / number of total shot attempts

The 0.278 = number of shots made "when creating for himself" / number of total shot attempts.

You haven't adjusted the denominator - you need to take out the number of total shot attempts that were from potential assists and actual assists. Like someone else pointed out, this would be pretty hard to get.

Your best bet is to pick your favorit-ist player of all time. Go through game videos and pay attention to when he isolates. Tally up total field goals attempted during isolation and total field goals made during isolation.

I don't believe there is a stat out there that will give you a "missed shot which if made would have counted as an assist" since assists can sometimes be subjective.

[InfiniteBaskets]

Lookin at it another way. Say I'm a beast when it comes to isolation-scoring but I suck at spot up shooting.

I play a game where I score 10 times out of 10 when I shoot off ISO (Effectively 100% FG percentage when I create for myself).

I score 2 buckets out of 10 attempts from catch and shoot.


I've hit 12 shots in total out of 20 shots. FG% = 60%

I scored 12 shots, 2 of which were assisted. My % of unassisted buckets = 83%.


According to your formula, my Non-Assisted FG% would be 60% * 83% = 50%

However, we already know I've scored 10 times out of 10 when I iso. So it's not a true measure of a shot creator. It's more like eFG (where you can shoot over 100%), it's an assigned score where the higher the score, the better the shot creator.


Now I'll present a different situation.

I'm pretty good at ISO, but a better spot up shooter when I get an opportunity, but I don't get many easy catch and shoot looks.

I iso 7 times the entire game and score 5 times. That's about a 71% scoring percentage when I iso.

I get 2 catch and shoot opportunities the entire game, and make both. That's 100% on assisted buckets.

So overall, I shoot 7/9 the entire game, FG of 77%.

My unassisted % of buckets made is 5/7 or 71%.


According to the formula, my Non-Assisted FG% would be 71% * 77% = 55%.

So player 1 scores 10/10 on iso situations and gets a score of 50% while player 2 scores 5/7 on iso situations and gets a score of 55%.

[AAckley1]

I believe you are continuing to overlook the fact that this is simply a stat to show what someone shoots when they don't score off of an assist. It is an undeniable fact that all players shoot 100% on assisted baskets.

Bringing in the element of "did they score in an assist situation?" complicates the statistic infinitely simply because such information does not exist in a large scale at this time. An assist-situation and an assist are not the same thing.

I set out with the goal to locate which players give the highest possibility of scoring in situations where no other player receives an assist on the play, not strictly in ISO situations, and I believe I have successfully done that.

To InfiniteBaskets:

Player 1's assisted% would be 5%, not 17% as you incorrectly calculated. He was assisted on 2 of his 20 shot attempts. This results in him completing 55% of his shots where another player was not credited with an assist.

Player 2's assisted% is 22%, not 100% as you incorrectly calculated. He was assisted on 2 of his 9 shot attempts. This results in him completing 71% of his shots where another player was not credited with an assist.

[InfiniteBaskets]

To InfiniteBaskets:

Player 1's assisted% would be 5%, not 17% as you incorrectly calculated. He was assisted on 2 of his 20 shot attempts. This results in him completing 55% of his shots where another player was not credited with an assist.

Player 2's assisted% is 22%, not 100% as you incorrectly calculated. He was assisted on 2 of his 9 shot attempts. This results in him completing 71% of his shots where another player was not credited with an assist.

I was following the logic of oohlalaa, where he had stated 40% of Kobe's field goals were assisted, rather than field goal attempts. So I used the same logic, and I noticed that you had quoted him and affirmed his re-stated formula.

[Zedja]

Lebron>Nash

[AAckley1]

I was following the logic of oohlalaa, where he had stated 40% of Kobe's field goals were assisted, rather than field goal attempts. So I used the same logic, and I noticed that you had quoted him and affirmed his re-stated formula.

Yes, my apologies. The assisted% is based on made shots. So player 1 in your example asstd% is 18%. However you must subtract made assisted shots from both FGM as well as FGA. So he shot 10/18 in situations where another player didn't receive an assist.

Player 2 asstd% is 29%. He shot 5/7 in situations where another player wasn't credited with an assist.

My thinking is that a missed shot in an "assist-situation" is still an unassisted FGA by definition.

[Raz]

Imagine the nightmare for statisticians trying to count assist situations. I guess if they marked down every pass leading to a shot attempt, and once it goes in it becomes an assist.

This would essentially let us know how good a guy is at getting open and creating space, and how good the passer is at his delivery.

Tyreke Evans would have a horrible % on this with all of his bail out passes.

[Overdrive]

My thinking is that a missed shot in an "assist-situation" is still an unassisted FGA by definition.

Yes by strict "mathematical" definition, but it is no stat for shotcreators then, because a miss on a spot up isn't a miss on a turn-around fade away.
One is an "assist-situation" miss the other a miss on a created shot.

Of course every miss is nonassisted, because there are no assists for misses. That's a redundant definition.

Shotsmade/attempted after receiving a pass would be a better "stat" to calculate shots created by players.

[AAckley1]

Yes by strict "mathematical" definition, but it is no stat for shotcreators then, because a miss on a spot up isn't a miss on a turn-around fade away.
One is an "assist-situation" miss the other a miss on a created shot.

Of course every miss is nonassisted, because there are no assists for misses. That's a redundant definition.

Shotsmade/attempted after receiving a pass would be a better "stat" to calculate shots created by players.

I think it still does a pretty good job of showing who is good at creating their own shot and who is not. It may not be of the utmost accurate at the current formulation, however it is something innovative and can be expanded on with 82games zone based asstd%.