Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

[DonDadda59]

114K jobs added, continued growth in the private sector, unemployment drops to 7.8%...

[INDENT]Jobs report gives Obama much-needed boost
By KEN THOMAS, Associated Press

FAIRFAX, Va. (AP)

[DeuceWallaces]

Welcome to Mitt's nightmare.

Check foxnews.com front page right now. Cons shitting bricks.

[falc39]

This is nothing new. Employment and inflation statistics have always been suspect for years now. It takes like 120k jobs each month just to keep up with population growth. Remember that month when barely any jobs were added yet the employment rate dropped? You can argue whether there is manipulation or not, but many agree the way these numbers are calculated is flawed and isn't realistic. Again, this is nothing new...

[StroShow4]

Except they don't count the people who stop looking for a job... so the number isn't really indicative of the true unemployment rate.

[daily]

Great news. now only 4 million people lost jobs on Obama's watch

[TheMan]

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/695_ilhat.jpg

http://29.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lltzgnHi5F1qzib3wo1_400.jpg

[DonDadda59]

Except they don't count the people who stop looking for a job... so the number isn't really indicative of the true unemployment rate.

Very true, which is why it's so strange that some conservatives seem to be panicking over these numbers and spewing nonsense and irrational conspiracy theories in response. These are ok numbers, nothing great really, but they are positive. The stock market is responding well to the reports and many see this as a sign of a sustained positive recovery.

[Jailblazers7]

It is just a case of the media trying to influence people who arent educated about this type of thing. The statistic is flawed, as are most macroeconomic stats, but it is not faked. The key is knowing how to interpret it and instead of doing their job and educating viewers the media is spinning conspiracy stories.

[Real Men Wear Green]

Except they don't count the people who stop looking for a job... so the number isn't really indicative of the true unemployment rate.
Somewhat true but it's always been done that way, including during Republican administrations.

[StroShow4]

Somewhat true but it's always been done that way, including during Republican administrations.

I was just pointing it out, not claiming it's something new.

[KevinNYC]

Except they don't count the people who stop looking for a job... so the number isn't really indicative of the true unemployment rate.

There is a stat that covers that. That number didn't change. Because mostly the surge of jobs were part time jobs and the U6 rate covers underemployed.

Check out the Ezra Klein link I put up in the BigAss thread for the best take on today's numbers.

[stallionaire]

Republicans don't want the lower class and middle class to be at work. Now the stats prove it.

[Godzuki]

This is nothing new. Employment and inflation statistics have always been suspect for years now. It takes like 120k jobs each month just to keep up with population growth. Remember that month when barely any jobs were added yet the employment rate dropped? You can argue whether there is manipulation or not, but many agree the way these numbers are calculated is flawed and isn't realistic. Again, this is nothing new...


considering its the same numbers they use to attack Obama, its laughable how now they're flawed numbers :facepalm

[Bladers]

Except they don't count the people who stop looking for a job... so the number isn't really indicative of the true unemployment rate.

Actually they do, and that number actually increased. unlike what romney said.

[JaggerCommaMick]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- More than 200,000 long-term jobless Americans will lose their unemployment checks this week, when eight states roll off the federal extended benefits program.

Nearly half of them live in California, and the rest reside in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Texas.

The federal extended benefits program has provided the jobless with up to 20 weeks of unemployment checks after they've run through their state and their federal emergency benefits, which together last up to 79 weeks.

But the extended benefits program is expiring throughout the country as the economy improves. To be eligible for these benefits, a state must show that its unemployment rate is at least 10% higher than it was in at least one of the past three years.

State unemployment rates have been falling as the jobless find new positions or exit the workforce. For instance, Nevada has the highest state unemployment rate at 12%, but it's still below the 14% it logged in October 2010.

It's amazing how when benefits reach their expiration date, suddenly people find work again.




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^^ there's a fraction of the job postings on the Charlotte craigslist just TODAY.



The old "people cant find jobs, people are out of work" line is phony rhetoric. Unemployment numbers are high because unemployment benefits extend far too long. Numerous studies have shown that if they last 5 years, people find jobs after 4 years, 11 months. If they last 4 years, people find jobs after 3 years, 11 months.


It's extremely disengenuous for Democrats to pipe up about jobs/unemployment. They're the ones who want to encourage people to rely on government handouts rather than work. The proof is there, jobs ARE available. You can find lots and lots of craigslist job postings in EVERY city, mates! People are just coasting instead of working. Funny how the President they voted for has to take heat for their apathy. But that's what it's about. Lazy and selfish. Sure, they'll vote for Obama if he'll help them be lazy and selfish. But once he needs their help? Nah, they're gonna stay lazy and selfish.

[JaggerCommaMick]

Republicans don't want the lower class and middle class to be at work. Now the stats prove it.


Sadly, you're right. That's what partisan politics does, mates. You remember how gleefully Democrats toted the death toll numbers in Iraq when George Bush was President. If the number of dead soldiers dipped, Democrats pouted and brought up "well, that doesnt even compare to how many civilians are getting killed!"

Democrats were so invested in partisanship that they were literally rooting for innocent people to die, in order to blame it on George Bush.

Pretty sad all around, mate. But that's what you get when you've got idiots like kevinyc and godzuki, who are more invested in a party than a country.

[nathanjizzle]

"how convenient unemployment drops below 8 percent 2 months before election" says conservative idiots. well check it out...this trend has predicted this the last 3 years so its not so much of a coincidence is it? whether not the drop in number truly indicates our economy on the upswing is another argument. but to say the numbers are cooked for obama :facepalm, right. the department of labor has been plannign this for the last 3 years. this is why i dont get into politics..to many idiots arguing with false information.

http://imageshack.us/a/img821/8703/080312jobschart600x306.jpg

[JtotheIzzo]

Welcome to Mitt's nightmare.

Check foxnews.com front page right now. Cons shitting bricks.

The FOX News bias has been especially strange these last few month. They have always leaned hard right, but lately they have gone to the level of home team local announcer, cheerleading like I have never seen. There must be a lot of top down pressure from all the big wigs who set up Romney superpacs to spread the word in a forceful manner.

[rufuspaul]

It's amazing how when benefits reach their expiration date, suddenly people find work again.




^^ there's a fraction of the job postings on the Charlotte craigslist just TODAY.



The old "people cant find jobs, people are out of work" line is phony rhetoric. Unemployment numbers are high because unemployment benefits extend far too long. Numerous studies have shown that if they last 5 years, people find jobs after 4 years, 11 months. If they last 4 years, people find jobs after 3 years, 11 months.


It's extremely disengenuous for Democrats to pipe up about jobs/unemployment. They're the ones who want to encourage people to rely on government handouts rather than work. The proof is there, jobs ARE available. You can find lots and lots of craigslist job postings in EVERY city, mates! People are just coasting instead of working. Funny how the President they voted for has to take heat for their apathy. But that's what it's about. Lazy and selfish. Sure, they'll vote for Obama if he'll help them be lazy and selfish. But once he needs their help? Nah, they're gonna stay lazy and selfish.


Should I be concerned that Starface is checking out Charlotte's Craigslist? :confusedshrug:

[Sarcastic]

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/598688_10151195295701749_864823281_n.jpg

[Godzuki]

Sadly, you're right. That's what partisan politics does, mates. You remember how gleefully Democrats toted the death toll numbers in Iraq when George Bush was President. If the number of dead soldiers dipped, Democrats pouted and brought up "well, that doesnt even compare to how many civilians are getting killed!"

Democrats were so invested in partisanship that they were literally rooting for innocent people to die, in order to blame it on George Bush.

Pretty sad all around, mate. But that's what you get when you've got idiots like kevinyc and godzuki, who are more invested in a party than a country.


you've been wrong on pretty much every major decision a President has had to make in recent memory, and that goes for almost every Republican or Independent here. Whether its you voting for Bush saying the same things you are now, reelecting him spouting the same garbage, not wanting to bailout and let our automotive sectors go bankrupt with massive job losses when we're already sinking into a deep recession, or not raising the debt ceiling ruining America's credit rating. and all you people do is blame it on Democrats when the stuff you're pushing has been wrong EVERY time with EVERY major decision.

none of you ever own up to shit, you just deflect it on to Democrats, and its funny how you pretend to reinvent the Bush years as being not so bad compared to Obama when he was f'in awful. Wait another 20 years before you try to brainwash people with that nonsense since it wasn't even that long ago. its unbelievable to me how people think we should be fully recovered right now considering how low we were when Obama took office, but thats the right wing spin machine where it somehow becomes a unrealistic expectation/criticism :facepalm

[Rasheed1]

:oldlol: Romney won the debate and only got like 1 day of good press. The news cycle has already shifted and its only Friday...

I know republicans are soo pissed right now. lol

[KevinNYC]

Should I be concerned that Starface is checking out Charlotte's Craigslist? :confusedshrug:
:lol

Dude. I'm sorry.

[TheMan]

It's amazing how when benefits reach their expiration date, suddenly people find work again.




^^ there's a fraction of the job postings on the Charlotte craigslist just TODAY.



The old "people cant find jobs, people are out of work" line is phony rhetoric. Unemployment numbers are high because unemployment benefits extend far too long. Numerous studies have shown that if they last 5 years, people find jobs after 4 years, 11 months. If they last 4 years, people find jobs after 3 years, 11 months.


It's extremely disengenuous for Democrats to pipe up about jobs/unemployment. They're the ones who want to encourage people to rely on government handouts rather than work. The proof is there, jobs ARE available. You can find lots and lots of craigslist job postings in EVERY city, mates! People are just coasting instead of working. Funny how the President they voted for has to take heat for their apathy. But that's what it's about. Lazy and selfish. Sure, they'll vote for Obama if he'll help them be lazy and selfish. But once he needs their help? Nah, they're gonna stay lazy and selfish.

Whatever Starface...

[General]

I can't believe Obama is out there touting this as a huge success. The unemployment rate when Obama took office was 7.8% and now it's at...7.8%. There are less people working than in 2009 and this is after his 1 trillion dollar stimulus. Embarrassing.
http://i46.tinypic.com/5u3fwo.png

[Sarcastic]

I can't believe Obama is out there touting this as a huge success. The unemployment rate when Obama took office was 7.8% and now it's at...7.8%. There are less people working than in 2009 and this is after his 1 trillion dollar stimulus. Embarrassing.
http://i46.tinypic.com/5u3fwo.png


That's because they cut so many government jobs. The private sector has been hiring away.

[TheMan]

JaggerCommaMick AKA Starface likes calling Democrats blind partisans yet he's the biggest right wing hack here shilling for the GOP.

The fucckouttahere mate.

[TheMan]

Do you really have "Jeff L cheap jew" written on your profile? Wow, I hope you get raped by your own dad, so he spreads his AIDS to you. We don't need racist skanks like you in this country.
Reported, I hope Jeff perma bans that prick.

[Balla_Status]

It'd be nice to know which industries are adding the jobs.

[Nanners]

It'd be nice to know which industries are adding the jobs.

agreed. my guess is there are a whole lot of unsustainable energy jobs that will start to disappear once the gas is extracted.

[General]

The U-6 umeployment rate which the BLS describes as: Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. IMO this is the most telling and "true" unemployment rate. It's actually higher now than when Obama took office. After Obama's poor debate performance and this abysmal jobs report I see Romney picking up more than a few points in Ohio and Florida. Some polls already show Romney leading in Florida by two points.
U-6 True Unemployment Rate
http://i50.tinypic.com/fuqc1f.png

[Balla_Status]

agreed. my guess is there are a whole lot of unsustainable energy jobs that will start to disappear once the gas is extracted.

You're obviously an expert. Tell me more. USA is #1 exporter of natural gas.

Thank you oil and gas industry for making our economy stronger.

[Nanners]

You're obviously an expert. Tell me more. USA is #1 exporter of natural gas.

Thank you oil and gas industry for making our economy stronger.


so we are sitting on an unlimited supply of natural gas then? i was under the impression that there is a limited amount and that once its burned its gone.

thank you oil and gas industry. without you glorious people, humanity would still be living in caves. hawker you are basically the savior of humanity, thank you for your sacrifice.

[Balla_Status]

so we are sitting on an unlimited supply of natural gas then? i was under the impression that there is a limited amount and that once its burned its gone.

thank you oil and gas industry. without you glorious people, humanity would still be living in caves. hawker you are basically the savior of humanity, thank you for your sacrifice.

Jobs are jobs. If you want sustainable jobs, I guess we should make prostitution legal.

And of course, not unlimited but a centuries worth of gas at least. Got anything more sustainable than that?

[Nanners]

Jobs are jobs. If you want sustainable jobs, I guess we should make prostitution legal.

look up to the sky hawker. how do you feel knowing that you will be put out of work and have your entire industry replaced by an ancient ball of fire?

solar will be the final answer to our energy needs. this fact is 100% unavoidable and inevitable. its only a matter of how long it takes until the technology can catch up.

[Balla_Status]

look up to the sky hawker. how do you feel knowing that you will be put out of work and have your entire industry replaced by an ancient ball of fire?

solar will be the final answer to our energy needs. this fact is 100% unavoidable and inevitable. its only a matter of how long it takes until the technology can catch up.

Doesn't bother me at all bub. I'll be dead/retired by then.

Plus I have an engineering degree. Wouldn't be hard to find another job.

[KevinNYC]

That's because they cut so many government jobs. The private sector has been hiring away.

Hiring away is an exaggeration, but the private sector has definitely been more robust than the public sector.

[Nanners]

Doesn't bother me at all bub. I'll be dead/retired by then.

Plus I have an engineering degree. Wouldn't be hard to find another job.

well good for you having a plan in place for the future. its nice that we can both agree that solar will ultimately replace fossil fuels.

[Real Men Wear Green]

Should I be concerned that Starface is checking out Charlotte's Craigslist? :confusedshrug:
Maybe he's trying to get a job. It'd be a good first step.

[kentatm]

Jobs are jobs. If you want sustainable jobs, I guess we should make prostitution legal.

And of course, not unlimited but a centuries worth of gas at least. Got anything more sustainable than that?


I agree with you here.

I feel the same way about construction workers. You'll here politicians shit on those as temporary jobs but to those people that is what they rely on. There are always roads to fix, buildings to repairs, bridges in need of maintenance etc etc. Just b/c they won't always live in the same place where that work is needed doesnt change that its honest to goodness work.

a job is a job. It does not matter if its technically temporary b/c w/o it they can't spend money and move the economy.

[nathanjizzle]

The U-6 umeployment rate which the BLS describes as: Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. IMO this is the most telling and "true" unemployment rate. It's actually higher now than when Obama took office. After Obama's poor debate performance and this abysmal jobs report I see Romney picking up more than a few points in Ohio and Florida. Some polls already show Romney leading in Florida by two points.
U-6 True Unemployment Rate
http://i50.tinypic.com/fuqc1f.png

why not just throw cats and dogs in that percentage to just to make it higher? since when did part time employment become unemployment. this is the exact reasons why i hate politics people like to twist facts and make false impressions. and then go into microsoft office, fill in a chart and think you have a point

[KevinNYC]

The U-6 umeployment rate ....The U6 rate (http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp?fromYear=2009&toYear=2012) tells almost the same story as the U3 rate. (http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate.jsp?fromYear=2009&toYear=2012)

It was high when Obama took office, peaked in the spring of 2010 and is now back BELOW where Obama's first full month in office? How can I say its below? The answer to that is Obama's first full month in office is February 2009, not January. January 2009 happened to the worst single month for job losses in the crisis with 800,000 lost. Look what that single month did to numbers, the regular unemployment rate jumped from 7.8 to 8.3 in a single month. The U6 jumped from 14.2 to 15.1 in a single month.


You could argue that those numbers are not good enough and it's been too high for too long, but it's not dishonest to use the u3 rate. If you click and look at the charts I linked, the graph of the u6 and the u3 numbers are pretty much the same picture.

There's no dishonesty in using the u6 or the u3 numbers as long as you compare apples to apples and not do what Fox News did a few weeks ago, where there compared the Jan 2009 u3 rate to the current u6 rate.

[KevinNYC]

why not just throw cats and dogs in that percentage to just to make it higher? since when did part time employment become unemployment. this is the exact reasons why i hate politics people like to twist facts and make false impressions. and then go into microsoft office, fill in a chart and think you have a point

The u6 numbers have value, but you just have to understand what rate you're considering.

The u6 numbers are always higher. That doesn't make them false. What is false is the idea that the the trend the u6 numbers show us radically diverges from the trend in the u3 numbers. The trends are moving pretty much in sync.

[KevinNYC]

Krugman just weighed in on this one

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/democrat-derangement-syndrome/


As one commenter points out where were these same folks complaining about the BLS numbers in July and August when the numbers were not favorable to the President.

[Math2]

Except they don't count the people who stop looking for a job... so the number isn't really indicative of the true unemployment rate.

Only when a Republican is president does this get any mention.

[Crystallas]

What about non-conservatives that have been saying the same thing for years? The unemployment numbers are useless when most of our qualified and hardworking family members are still without jobs, and not collecting UI benefits to sway the statistic. Get the politics out of your asses and get real. The unemployment number is far from accurate.

[G-Funk]

considering its the same numbers they use to attack Obama, its laughable how now they're flawed numbers :facepalm
Nice

[shlver]

In the most recent household survey, the biggest hiring gains came in the form of 582,000 new part-time jobs in September. Part of that number can be explained by young workers, ages 16 to 24. The data show this age group saw a huge pickup in jobs in September, due almost entirely to seasonal adjustments by the Labor Department.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/05/news/economy/september-jobs-report/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
It was manipulation by the BLS to smooth out seasonal swings. They added a standard correction when those students never had said jobs to begin with.

[Nanners]

why didnt obama make it so that everybody has jobs? worst president ever

[KevinNYC]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/05/news/economy/september-jobs-report/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
It was manipulation by the BLS to smooth out seasonal swings. They added a standard correction when those students never had said jobs to begin with.


Do you have any evidence for the bolded part? The article doesn't say that.

Also are you saying they did some thing different this year? Lots of part time jobs in September (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/05/september-jobs-report-debunking-the-jobs-report-conspiracy-theories/)is not usual. People freaking out about it is. 2010 was pretty bad year for jobs and September 2010 had just 3,000 less part time jobs than last year.

[QUOTE]The numbers say they had jobs increased by about 800,000. That seems high, but it

[demons2005]

I normally want the jobs number to improve but this is a pyrrhic victory if the jobs number goes down and causes Obama to win. It may be nice to have a job if the government offers you one but DONT TAKE IT if you care about the long term. dont let them fudge the numbers and elect a guy whose trying to tear the country apart from the top. you may like being employed for 2 months until election but think longterm, it will cost the country and your children and grandchildren dearly.

[KevinNYC]

I normally want the jobs number to improve but this is a pyrrhic victory if the jobs number goes down and causes Obama to win.

And tell us the truth, you've felt this way since January 2009?

[shlver]

Do you have any evidence for the bolded part? The article doesn't say that.

Also are you saying they did some thing different this year? Lots of part time jobs in September (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/05/september-jobs-report-debunking-the-jobs-report-conspiracy-theories/)is not usual. People freaking out about it is. 2010 was pretty bad year for jobs and September 2010 had just 3,000 less part time jobs than last year.
No I don't. September is when school starts and students quit their jobs, so I speculated that the BLS counteracted what historically happens with seasonal adjustment. I may be wrong though.

[Nanners]

the crazy thing is that employment will likely improve even more in the short term, given that unemployment is always strongest during the holidays. people gotta sell and mail all the iphones, ipods and ipads to each other.

i would bet the farm that there is another supposed net gain in "jobs" next month

[joe]

The economy looked pretty solid in 2007, even 2008 to most people. 2008 the housing bubble collapsed, and suddenly it was the end of the world.

This is the problem with looking at these statistics/stock market/etc to judge the economy. These are just surface numbers. You have to look at the foundation that the economy is built on.

Our economy right now is built on the Federal Reserve buying bonds and manipulating interest rates. Fact.

And it is my opinion that not only is the bond market a bubble, but the entire government itself is a bubble. We have way more government than is actually desired/sustainable, because the Fed has become so out of control with its license to print.

When these bubbles pop, it won't matter that the unemployment rate dropped .7 percent in October 2012. It won't matter that the stock market looked good for a random week here or there. Look at the foundation that the house is built on, not how stylish the paint job is.

[daily]

Well we'll know more in the next few days. Somethings wrong here, the numbers are contradictory to what even Democratic economists were predicting earlier this week.

Greatest hiring period since the early 1980's? Yeah sure :lol

[KevinNYC]

No I don't. September is when school starts and students quit their jobs, so I speculated that the BLS counteracted what historically happens with seasonal adjustment. I may be wrong though.

I don't know what causes this either, but I suspect the abundance of part time jobs has to do with the rush of college students back to college towns.

They need a part time while they go to class and the local businesses need more staff.

I'm thinking of a place like Penn Sate.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_College,_Pennsylvania#Demographics)
The city is a very small city that has three populations: 40,000 people in Summer, 80,000 when the university is on, and 120,000 during football weekends.

[shlver]

After looking at the data, it does look like they did something different this year.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10072011.pdf
The same month, September 2011, the economy added 400k jobs compared to the 900k jobs during last month's report. A difference in 500k jobs only yields a difference in 40k jobs between 103k gain in 2011 and 140k gain in 2012. they did use a massively different seasonal adjustment.

[shlver]

I don't know what causes this either, but I suspect the abundance of part time jobs has to do with the rush of college students back to college towns.

They need a part time while they go to class and the local businesses need more staff.

I'm thinking of a place like Penn Sate.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_College,_Pennsylvania#Demographics)
Not sure either as the BLS refuses to reveal how they seasonally adjust numbers, but a .3% drop in unemployment rate is unlikely and I expect a revision.

[KevinNYC]

I think there is something going with the economy that is more positive than recent history.

Car Sales are at a 4 year high (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/business/g-m-and-ford-post-lackluster-sales.html). Highest rate of car sales since Feb 2008.

Housing sales in July were the highest in 2 years (http://www.boston.com/business/news/2012/09/19/home-sales-jump-highest-since-may/VfEetTeghjCcWZtrQVpO6J/story.html).

The Dow Jones just hit a 5 year high (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/markets-usa-stocks-idUSL1E8L566I20121005?type=marketsNews).

The Nasdaq hit a 12 year high last month.

There seems to be movement going on.

[TheMan]

I think there is something going with the economy that is more positive than recent history.

Car Sales are at a 4 year high (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/business/g-m-and-ford-post-lackluster-sales.html). Highest rate of car sales since Feb 2008.

Housing sales in July were the highest in 2 years (http://www.boston.com/business/news/2012/09/19/home-sales-jump-highest-since-may/VfEetTeghjCcWZtrQVpO6J/story.html).

The Dow Jones just hit a 5 year high (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/markets-usa-stocks-idUSL1E8L566I20121005?type=marketsNews).

The Nasdaq hit a 12 year high last month.


There seems to be movement going on.
Horrible news for far right wing nuts, great news for the rest of us:lol

[KevinNYC]

Media Matters has a whole list of folks who questioned these numbers (http://mediamatters.org/research/2012/10/05/media-dismiss-drop-in-unemployment-rate-as-gove/190392) (as well as all the financial reporters who called this nonsense.
One thing that surprised me, but probably shouldn't is that Joe Scarborough's cast of characters didn't know that the unemployment numbers are determined by two separate surveys, the payroll survey and household survey. The unemployment rate is determined by the household survey. The language that BLS used was

The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm
payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today.
Scarborough was looking at payroll and kept saying the numbers didn't add up. Only one of his crew was honest enough to say he wasn't qualified to have an opinion.

SCARBOROUGH: You look at the metrics, you look at how it's set up, these numbers don't make any sense.

WILLIE GEIST (co-host): We need more explanation. We're reading through the report in great detail right now, because 114,000 jobs were added, which is below population growth, and a lot of people who projected that number, as Miles said, said if it comes down about 113, 120--

SCARBOROUGH: Anemic growth.

GEIST: You get about 8.1 percent unemployment. And now we've had a major tick down to 7.8 percent unemployment so we're still working through this.

MIKA BRZEZINSKI (co-host): And this is in a time when we're seeing the worst long-term unemployment in recent history.

SCARBOROUGH: And the participation rates are historically low. There is an uptick in .1 percent I'm sorry, that's insignificant. These numbers don't add up.

[...]

SCARBOROUGH: Let me tell you something, seriously these numbers don't add up. They just don't. Again, I've got no dog in the fight here as far as the numbers go.

BRZEZINSKI: Cause you want them to be good, we all want them to be good.

SCARBOROUGH: I want them to be good. My dad was unemployed, I always, conservatives always get angry at me when I cheer good economic news, but Mike these numbers don't add up. It doesn't make sense it would drop to 7.8 percent with a weak participation rate and an anemic number of jobs added.

MIKE BARNICLE (co-host): Look, I am totally unqualified to weave my way through these numbers

SCARBOROUGH: Same here. Same with all of us.

BARNICLE: Try to figure it out, I am totally unqualified. I do know this though. That these new unemployment numbers, while offering promise and hope to a lot of people, I'm sure, won't offer promise or hope to an enormous number of people who are still unemployed in this country. There's a lot of unemployed people in this country. I don't know where the number came from, I hope it's accurate, but I just don't know.

[...]

GEIST: We should be very clear, I don't think any of us at this table is suggesting the Obama campaign or the White House is manipulating these numbers. We're just digging through the report and want to get it explained.

SCARBOROUGH: We just read Jack Welch's tweet for entertainment value. But I got to tell you though these numbers don't seem to add up. We need the Labor Department to explain. This is, though, every month it comes out, every month, this is such an inexact science. Every month, not just this month, that it's nonsense. They've got to figure out a better way, a more accurate way. [MSNBC, Morning Joe, 10/5/12]


I can't say that I knew how the rate was determined exactly, but then again, I don't work for a news channel.

[TheMan]

That dialogue sounds like it could've easily been on Fox and Friends.

The hell are they doing over at MSNBC, I thought they were trying to get Obama re-elected:facepalm :lol

[KevinNYC]

That dialogue sounds like it could've easily been on Fox and Friends.

The hell are they doing over at MSNBC, I thought they were trying to get Obama re-elected:facepalm :lol

Liberals don't watch morning shows. They don't get up until 11am anyway.

One thing I find really interesting about MSNBC is how young a lot of its hosts are. Maddow, Alex Wagner, Chris Hayes, that daytime show with a bunch of young folks.


Also I just found out another indicator there's something going on with the economy. (http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/04/pf/credit-card-delinquencies/index.html)
Credit card customers are more responsible than they've been in over a decade.
Delinquencies on credit cards issued by banks dropped to the lowest level since 2001 during the second quarter, according to a report from the American Bankers Association released Thursday.

Only 2.93% of all bank card accounts were considered delinquent, meaning they were 30 days or more overdue. That's down from 3.08% in the first quarter and significantly lower than the 15-year average of 3.91%

The poster who posted that also said "This suggests that people have made real progress in getting that aspect of their finances in order.

Paying down debt rather than borrowing-and-spending is "bad" for growth -- except that it makes growth sustainable. Much healthier."

[Jailblazers7]

Not sure either as the BLS refuses to reveal how they seasonally adjust numbers, but a .3% drop in unemployment rate is unlikely and I expect a revision.

I think they stopped reveal the exact adjustment factors they use but I'm pretty sure they use an x-12 ARIMA model for seasonal adjustments. I dont have a ton of experience with the ARIMA model so i cant do much to clarify but there is info out there that you can google if you really want to know.

[KevinNYC]

After looking at the data, it does look like they did something different this year.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10072011.pdf
The same month, September 2011, the economy added 400k jobs compared to the 900k jobs during last month's report. A difference in 500k jobs only yields a difference in 40k jobs between 103k gain in 2011 and 140k gain in 2012. they did use a massively different seasonal adjustment.

This is not clear at all to me. Can you explain each of the numbers you're using here.


Not sure either as the BLS refuses to reveal how they seasonally adjust numbers, but a .3% drop in unemployment rate is unlikely and I expect a revision.

Since 2003 this is has been the Seasonal Adjustment Methodology at BLS (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisahoma.htm)

from: BLS Handbook of Methods, Appendix A......
.....The new procedure, called X-12 ARIMA, (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) integrates ARIMA forecasting with X-11 seasonal adjustment very much like X-11 ARIMA did, but it also provides a lot of additional tools including some that enable the estimation and diagnosis of a wide range of special effects. BLS began using X-12 ARIMA for the seasonal adjustment of the establishment-survey series effective with the release of the 1995 benchmark revisions in June 1996, primarily because of the capabilities it offered for controlling for survey-interval effects as well as moving holidays.

The standard practice at BLS for current seasonal adjustment of data, as it is initially released, is to use projected seasonal factors which are published ahead of time. The time series are generally run through the seasonal adjustment program once a year to provide the projected factors for the ensuing months and the revised seasonally adjusted data for the recent history of the series, usually the last 5 years. It has generally been unnecessary to revise any further back in time because the programs which have been used have all accomplished the objective of stabilizing the factors for the earlier part of the series, and any further revisions would produce only trivial changes. For the projected factors, the factors for the last complete year of actual data were selected when the X-11 or BLS method programs were used.

It seems clear to me that BLS does reveal how they seasonally adjust numbers. And it seems the publish their methodology before applying it.

Here's the BLS document on how Season Adjustment and how to use X-12 ARIMA (http://www.bls.gov/ces/cessa_oview.pdf) and how to download the X-12 ARIMA files.

Here's the document from January of this year (http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsrs2012.pdf) explaining the seasonal adjustments for 2012. I can't see it saying anything about the changes for September of this year, just that when last September's number were revised they went from 9.1 to 9.0

[DonDadda59]

Gallup is reporting that the unemployment rate continues to drop, that it is at 7.3% (7.7% adjusted for seasonal employment) in mid October:


Gallup: The Unemployment Rate Is Collapsing

More evidence that the official 7.8% unemployment rate is not the wild outlier people initially thought.
This just in from Gallup:
--------
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 7.3% in mid-October, down considerably from 7.9% at the end of September and at a new low since Gallup began collecting employment data in January 2010. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 7.7%, also down from September. October's adjusted mid-month measure is also more than a percentage point lower than October 2011.

http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/507ed252eab8ea8c5200000b-520-390/image.jpg

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gallup-the-unemployment-rate-is-collapsing-2012-10#ixzz29d0WSUDO

The recent housing reports also show signs of a recovery (finally):

[INDENT]Housing Starts Jump 15% to Four-Year U.S. High: Economy

Housing starts in the U.S. surged 15 percent in September to the highest level in four years, adding to signs of a revival in the industry at the heart of the financial crisis.

Beginning home construction jumped last month to an 872,000 annual rate, the fastest since July 2008 and exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. An increase in building permits may mean the gains will be sustained.

[B][COLOR="Red"]

[joe]

I agree with you here.

I feel the same way about construction workers. You'll here politicians shit on those as temporary jobs but to those people that is what they rely on. There are always roads to fix, buildings to repairs, bridges in need of maintenance etc etc. Just b/c they won't always live in the same place where that work is needed doesnt change that its honest to goodness work.

a job is a job. It does not matter if its technically temporary b/c w/o it they can't spend money and move the economy.

The government construction worker may now have money to spend, but what about the people who are taxed to pay his salary? Those people now have an equal amount less to spend. So the economy isn't being "moved" any faster when the government creates jobs.

[KevinNYC]

The government construction worker may now have money to spend, but what about the people who are taxed to pay his salary? Those people now have an equal amount less to spend. So the economy isn't being "moved" any faster when the government creates jobs.

Joe there is something in economics called a multiplier effect. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_multiplier#Examples) So the effect is not one to one. Those construction workers would have a higher income and they would pay taxes on that and they spend more money on lunches at work and transportation, work clothes, beer and tips at their local bar.

So not only does the construction worker now have more disposable income, the restaurant owners and waitresses have a little bit more, the gas station owner has a little bit more and the clothing store owner and the bartender has a little bit more disposable income.

The real job losses in this current recession has been state and local workers. The private sector has created over 4.5 million jobs since unemployment bottomed in Jan 2010, however government jobs (which usually keep pace with population growth) have not only not kept pace, but are a down over a million jobs since Obama took office.

What's the effect of that? (http://www.epi.org/blog/years-recovery-state-local-austerity-hurt/) This estimate says with the multiplier effect
roughly 0.67 private sector jobs are lost for every public sector job cut. This means that the public sector being down 1.1 million jobs has likely cost the private sector 751,000 jobs (1.1 million*0.67).



Those people now have an equal amount less to spend.

This is apples to oranges. Each taxpayer is not paying the full amount of the worker's salary, but a very tiny fraction of it.

[KevinNYC]

Just this month there has been a big debate on the size of the multiplier. People have been wondering why has the UK recovered even more slowly than the US, when the UK pursued austerity policies and cut their spending? Greece is even worse off having cutting deeply. Well the International Monetary Fund which has been recommending austerity all over the place has looked into the data an they found that (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/Walker/2012/10/15/Walkers-World-Why-the-IMF-was-wrong/UPI-41781350297000/)

Blanchard has just revolutionized the academic debate about economic policy and the crisis. In the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook Blanchard and his team have come up with new research which convinces them that austerity is the wrong way to go....... the question Blanchard's team addressed was the affect of cuts in government spending on gross domestic product growth. We know that cuts will reduce output, since there will be less money in the hands of the public to buy products and thus less incentive for manufacturers to make more. But it is hard to calculate how much the knock-on effects of the cuts bite into growth.

This is called the fiscal multiplier. Usually, we try to calculate this another way, by asking how much extra growth will a certain amount of extra government spending produce.

For the past decade and more, the IMF (and almost all government economists around the world) have assumed that the multiplier effect of spending cuts is 0.5; that is to say, cut public spending $100 billion and you cut growth $50 billion.

The new IMF research says this was wrong, and the multiplier effect is much greater -- somewhere between 0.9 and 1.7. That means that cuts of $100 billion means growth reduced $90 billion-$170 billion.

Wow! If that is right, the IMF is saying that the more you cut government spending the more your overall output will shrink -- and you will never get out of the hole. Your economic output just continues to decline, which is precisely what we have seen happening in Greece.

[KevinNYC]

Here's the view from across the pond


Euroland's debt strategy is an economic and moral disgrace
The International Monetary Fund has demolished the intellectual foundations of Europe's debt crisis strategy.

Drastic fiscal tightening in a string of interlinked countries does two to three times more damage than assumed, especially if there is no offsetting monetary stimulus.
Pushed beyond the therapeutic dose, it is self-defeating. At a certain point it becomes pain for pain's sake.
The error has long been obvious in Greece. The EU-IMF Troika originally said the economy would rebound quickly, growing 1.1pc in 2011, and 2.1pc in 2012, and on from there to sunlit uplands.
In fact, Greek GDP contracted by 4.5pc in 2010, 6.9pc in 2011, and is expected to shrink a further 6pc this year, and 4pc next year. If the Troika were a doctor, it would face manslaughter charges.
The IMF now admits -- or rather those in the IMF who always feared this outcome are at last able to say -- that this misjudgement goes far beyond Greece. Tightening by 1pc of GDP in rich countries does not lead to a 0.5pc loss of output over two years as thought.
The "fiscal multiplier" is not the hallowed 0.5 assumed by every finance ministry in Europe. The awful evidence since the global bubble burst in 2008-2009 is that the multiplier is between 0.9 and 1.7, or even higher for EMU (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_and_Monetary_Union_of_the_European_Union) 's crucifixion belt.

....Steen Jakobsen from Saxo Bank says the IMF's mea culpa is the "biggest financial story of the year". Indeed it is. The authorities have repeated the blunders of the Great Depression, but with fewer excuses.....
"Reducing public debt is incredibly difficult without growth," said the IMF's Christine Lagarde. "Instead of frontloading heavily, it is sometimes better to have a bit more time."

What seems to be happening is not that they share the Euro, one country can't devalue its currency and increase its exports like they used to do and this might have changed the multiplier effect.

[daily]

Jobless claims snap back up
By Annalyn Censky @CNNMoney October 18, 2012: 10:43 AM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- First-time claims for unemployment benefits are on a roller coaster. The number snapped back up last week, after falling to a four-year low the week before.
About 388,000 people filed for first-time unemployment benefits in the week ended October 13, up 46,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The last two weeks have swung dramatically in both directions, with initial claims first dropping to a revised 342,000, the lowest level in four years, and then suddenly popping back up last week.
Economists attribute the volatility to the end of the quarter and the Columbus Day holiday.
"The volatility in the last few weeks appears to reflect seasonal adjustment challenges around the start of a quarter," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/18/news/economy/unemployment-benefits/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

[Jailblazers7]

Multiplier effect is overestimated in times of recession imo. Also, govt spending isnt always a zero sum game like some choose to believe.

[joe]

Joe there is something in economics called a multiplier effect. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_multiplier#Examples) So the effect is not one to one. Those construction workers would have a higher income and they would pay taxes on that and they spend more money on lunches at work and transportation, work clothes, beer and tips at their local bar.

So not only does the construction worker now have more disposable income, the restaurant owners and waitresses have a little bit more, the gas station owner has a little bit more and the clothing store owner and the bartender has a little bit more disposable income.

The real job losses in this current recession has been state and local workers. The private sector has created over 4.5 million jobs since unemployment bottomed in Jan 2010, however government jobs (which usually keep pace with population growth) have not only not kept pace, but are a down over a million jobs since Obama took office.

What's the effect of that? (http://www.epi.org/blog/years-recovery-state-local-austerity-hurt/) This estimate says with the multiplier effect



This is apples to oranges. Each taxpayer is not paying the full amount of the worker's salary, but a very tiny fraction of it.

All you're doing in this scenario is shuffling the money around. Instead of the taxpayers having it, the construction workers have it. Instead of taxpayers giving money to the restaurant/bars of their choice, the construction workers give it to the restaurant/bars of their choice.

[joe]

Multiplier effect is overestimated in times of recession imo. Also, govt spending isnt always a zero sum game like some choose to believe.

What do some choose to believe, and how is it not so?

[rezznor]

I think there is something going with the economy that is more positive than recent history.

Car Sales are at a 4 year high (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/business/g-m-and-ford-post-lackluster-sales.html). Highest rate of car sales since Feb 2008.

Housing sales in July were the highest in 2 years (http://www.boston.com/business/news/2012/09/19/home-sales-jump-highest-since-may/VfEetTeghjCcWZtrQVpO6J/story.html).

The Dow Jones just hit a 5 year high (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/markets-usa-stocks-idUSL1E8L566I20121005?type=marketsNews).

The Nasdaq hit a 12 year high last month.

There seems to be movement going on.


I just bought a house last month and I can tell you that the market in Houston is very hot. prices have jumped substantially from only a year ago, and homes are getting snapped up quick. I lost out on several properties because they were snapped up before I could place a bid.

also, properties that have had constructions signs for years but sat undisturbed have finally started breaking ground and building all over town.

[Droid101]

What do some choose to believe, and how is it not so?
Republicans say government spending doesn't create jobs (unless it's military contractors of course). Which, obviously, it does.

In addition, it gives people more experience... so when the government contract is up, they have a better chance to get a better job in the private world.

[KevinNYC]

All you're doing in this scenario is shuffling the money around. Instead of the taxpayers having it, the construction workers have it. Instead of taxpayers giving money to the restaurant/bars of their choice, the construction workers give it to the restaurant/bars of their choice.

A. The construction workers would be taxpayers as well.
B. The restaurant or bars would have more available customers.

The way this is measured is the affect on GDP per dollar spent.
If you spend a dollar and GDP goes up a dollar twenty, then the multiplier effect is considered to be 1.2

Again, this is not a zero sum game.

[KevinNYC]

I just bought a house last month and I can tell you that the market in Houston is very hot. prices have jumped substantially from only a year ago, and homes are getting snapped up quick. I lost out on several properties because they were snapped up before I could place a bid.

also, properties that have had constructions signs for years but sat undisturbed have finally started breaking ground and building all over town.

Apparently investors have moved in looking for bargains at the low end of the market.

[rufuspaul]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-slip-google-earnings-jobless-claims-184407803--finance.html




NEW YORK (AP) — A mixed batch of earnings and economic reports pulled the stock market lower on Thursday. Google plunged 9 percent after it accidentally released a weak earnings report hours ahead of schedule.
The Dow fell 16 points to 13,541 as of 2:30 p.m. The Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped five points to 1,459.
"This is a market that's waiting for a clear catalyst," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. What investors most want, she said, is a sense of direction. They hope companies will lay out clearly where earnings and the economy are headed.
"We basically know what happened in the last quarter," Krosby said. "What we're looking for is what's next: Are we turning a corner? Will demand pick up at the end of the year?"
Google's stock dropped $68.19 to $687.30 before trading was suspended. The company's earnings, which fell far short of analysts' forecasts, were supposed to be released after the market closed.
Falling prices for Internet advertisements and a loss from Motorola Mobility weighed on Google's earnings. The company blamed the publisher R.R. Donnelley for filing a draft of its quarterly report. The publisher's stock lost 1 percent, or 14 cents, to $10.71.
Facebook, which also relies on Internet ads, took a turn lower after Google released results. Its stock fell 87 cents, to $19.00.
Google's fall helped tug the Nasdaq composite down 34 points to 3,070.
American Express reported quarterly revenue late Wednesday that fell short of Wall Street's expectations even though earnings were in line. Amex said card holders' rate of spending has slowed in recent months. Its stock lost $1.59 to $57.78.
Strong profits for the insurer Travelers sent its stock up 4 percent. The company said Thursday that claims from catastrophes plunged compared to the same quarter last year, which helped earnings double. Travelers' stock gained $2.78 to $74.16.
BB&T bank, Philip Morris International and Boston Scientific all fell after reporting results that fell short of forecasts. Microsoft is scheduled to post earnings after the market closes.
Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to say that overall earnings shrank in the third quarter, according to S&P Capital IQ. That would be the first drop in exactly three years.
Weekly applications for unemployment benefits surged to a four-month high, a sharp rise from the previous week. The increase suggested rising layoffs, but the Labor Department pointed to technical reasons behind the swing, mainly delayed figures from one large state, California.
Better earnings from Johnson & Johnson and other companies, along with encouraging reports on industrial production and the housing market, have pushed the stock market higher this week. The Dow is up 1.6 percent and the S&P 500 index up 1.9 percent for the week.
In other trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 1.82 percent, the same as it was late Wednesday.
Among other stocks making big moves:
— EBay jumped $2.10 to $50.30 after posting better net income and sales late Wednesday, thanks to more revenue from its PayPal payments service and its online markets. The company also raised its full-year estimates for earnings and sales.
— Verizon Communications surged 99 cents to $45.71. The company said its wireless division, partially owned by Vodafone Group, signed up more customers in the quarter. Verizon said its customers also added more devices to its Share Everything plan.


There are positive signs towards recovery but as usual the latest news is a mixed bag. Still too much uncertainty.

[Jailblazers7]

What do some choose to believe, and how is it not so?

My point is that govt spending isn't always just shuffling money around. In the case of transfer payments, then that would be a zero sum game but govt spending us does create value in the same way a private firm would. Education and infrastructure are government funded and provide value beyond the dollar amount being taxed and spent. Arguing that society would be better off leaving things alone because private firms is another argument but you get my point.

As far as the multiplier effect and stimulus, it isn't simply shuffling money around because the money being pumped into the economy is borrowed which increases incomes w/o taxing others (which causes a whole other set of issues).