Bill Simmons on the Harden trade and OKC's value

[SpecialQue]

I didn't feel like pouring over the other threads to see if this was already mentioned. Pretty interesting.


Bill Simmons ‏@sportsguy33

I fully support Harden refusing to take 4 yrs 52-54m from OKC. Could get 5 years 75-80m from Houston (no state tax). It's no contest.


Bill Simmons ‏@sportsguy33

PS: Harden didn't ask for a trade. He just turned down a subpar offer from a team crying poverty that made 30-35 million PROFIT last season.


Bill Simmons ‏@sportsguy33

PS: OKC could have kept Harden, made a title run and re-evaluated next summer - THEY were the ones that lowballed him, then traded him.


Bill Simmons ‏@sportsguy33

If OKC wanted Harden to take less (and I heard it was $53m, not $56) to stay, then why not offer him a no-trade clause? Loyalty goes 2 ways.


Bill Simmons ‏@sportsguy33

I already have an answer! Apparently you can only get a no-trade clause after 8 years in NBA (and has to be 4 with the same team).


Bill Simmons ‏@sportsguy33

Bigger point: OKC wanted Harden to take less $$$$ when he had no guarantee OKC wouldn't shop him some day (like what Boston did to Rondo).


Bill Simmons ‏@sportsguy33

FYI: Harden did not "leave" OKC. They offered him less than his market value, he said no, they abruptly traded him. That's what happened.


Bill Simmons ‏@sportsguy33

PS: We had a lockout + missed 16 games because NBA teams twist the truth about how much money they're making (and continue to do so).


Bill Simmons ‏@sportsguy33

OKC has everyone thinking they're a mom & pop store, meanwhile they made 30-35 million profit last year + could sell team for $550m easy.


Bill Simmons ‏@sportsguy33

Instead of painting Harden as greedy, OKC should just admit they didn't think he was a max guy + wanted those Houston assets + flexibility.

[50inchvertical]

He is scared to stay at the Skirvin Hotel when he comes here. He thinks he heard a ghost.

[Qwyjibo]

All good points.

This trade happened either because OKC's management simply liked Houston's offer more than Harden or because OKC's ownership was too cheap to pony up funds to keep a great team together.

[bagelred]

I fully support Harden refusing to take 4 yrs 52-54m from OKC. Could get 5 years 75-80m from Houston (no state tax). It's no contest.

I hate when people do this....even Bill Simmons now doing it.

Why does that extra year even matter? What is James Harden, 24 years old? Does anyone think he won't get big money 4 years from now?

So Simmons makes it seem its a 25 million dollar difference, but its not. It's probably $5 - 6 million in first 4 years, like others have said. Bad logic. When the time came, Thunder would have gave him big money for that "5th year"......

[Qwyjibo]

I hate when people do this....even Bill Simmons now doing it.

Why does that extra year even matter? What is James Harden, 24 years old? Does anyone think he won't get big money 4 years from now?

So Simmons makes it seem its a 25 million dollar difference, but its not. It's probably $5 - 6 million in first 4 years, like others have said. Bad logic.
Joe Johnson situation. Johnson stays in Phoenix and probably never puts himself into a position to get $120 million on his next deal. This is exact same situation. Harden's agent knows that the potential future earnings are much higher being a main guy in Houston.

[boozehound]

I hate when people do this....even Bill Simmons now doing it.

Why does that extra year even matter? What is James Harden, 24 years old? Does anyone think he won't get big money 4 years from now?

So Simmons makes it seem its a 25 million dollar difference, but its not. It's probably $5 - 6 million in first 4 years, like others have said. Bad logic. When the time came, Thunder would have gave him big money for that "5th year"......
assuming the upper number for each situation, the difference is 2.5 million a year. so 10 million on the table over the 4 year length.

[bagelred]

assuming the upper number for each situation, the difference is 2.5 million a year. so 10 million on the table over the 4 year length.

I have no problems with Harden signing a contract to get most money possible. He should do best for himself, no doubt. But let's not pretend it was a $25 million difference. It isn't.

[Carbine]

Joe Johnson situation. Johnson stays in Phoenix and probably never puts himself into a position to get $120 million on his next deal. This is exact same situation. Harden's agent knows that the potential future earnings are much higher being a main guy in Houston.

I think you'd be hard pressed to find a GM fork over anywhere near that type of money for a Harden type player 4-5 years from now. Joe Johnson is now an example to owners everywhere as to why you don't sign a marginal all-star to that type of money.

[Horatio33]

I hate when people do this....even Bill Simmons now doing it.

Why does that extra year even matter? What is James Harden, 24 years old? Does anyone think he won't get big money 4 years from now?

If he got seriously injured before he completed those 4 years, no one would give him a contract.

[R.I.P.]

Simmons is funny, but not really sharp. You could tell Joe House knows more about the NBA than he does. But since he is replacing Broussard it

[Chapallaz]

I bet Simmons is one of those people who can't stop talking because they like to hear themselves speak so much.

[longtime lurker]

OMG when did Harden become so ridiculously overrated? Why is it so hard to believe that OKC didn't think he's worth a max contract. Harden's ceiling is Joe Johnson and if you don't think Joe Johnson is worth the max then he's definitely not worth the max. OKC would get criticized no matter what they do. If they signed Harden we'd hear complaining in the next CBA that they're forced to sign him to a max to be competitive despite not being worth the money, then bitterness when he doesn't live up to the expectation. IF they let him go we'd hear complaining that they were forced to give up Harden because they're a poor small market franchise blah blah blah. In reality they did the smart thing and traded him while his value was still high, there's no doubt they got value in return, but we could be looking at a potential dynasty.

[Qwyjibo]

I think you'd be hard pressed to find a GM fork over anywhere near that type of money for a Harden type player 4-5 years from now. Joe Johnson is now an example to owners everywhere as to why you don't sign a marginal all-star to that type of money.
While I agree with you the 2nd JJ deal was awful for Atlanta, I think you underestimate the market and the pressure on GMs to retain their own talent. Harden will be coming up towards the middle/end of his prime years when this deal ends. He likely will have just put up a nice season. All it takes is one team to go full-retard (and it almost always happens).


Harden's ceiling is Joe Johnson and if you don't think Joe Johnson is worth the max then he's definitely not worth the max.
Umm, Joe Johnson was worth the max when he left Phoenix. He proved it in Atlanta over that first contract. So if you think Harden's ceiling is only that (Harden is a better player than JJ was at the same age) then yes, he deserved a max contract this time around.

[RRR3]

OMG when did Harden become so ridiculously overrated? Why is it so hard to believe that OKC didn't think he's worth a max contract. Harden's ceiling is Joe Johnson and if you don't think Joe Johnson is worth the max then he's definitely not worth the max. OKC would get criticized no matter what they do. If they signed Harden we'd hear complaining in the next CBA that they're forced to sign him to a max to be competitive despite not being worth the money, then bitterness when he doesn't live up to the expectation. IF they let him go we'd hear complaining that they were forced to give up Harden because they're a poor small market franchise blah blah blah. In reality they did the smart thing and traded him while his value was still high, there's no doubt they got value in return, but we could be looking at a potential dynasty.
http://www.the-coli.com/images/smilies/rudy.png

Harden is still only, what, 22? He's a beast. Pretty sure JJ averaged 25 PPG one time too, let's not act like JJ isn't a legit all-star.

[TheMarkMadsen]

Wow Bill simmons didn't know the rules regarding a no trade clause :facepalm


this guy

[Fatstogie]

I hate when people do this....even Bill Simmons now doing it.

Why does that extra year even matter? What is James Harden, 24 years old? Does anyone think he won't get big money 4 years from now?

So Simmons makes it seem its a 25 million dollar difference, but its not. It's probably $5 - 6 million in first 4 years, like others have said. Bad logic. When the time came, Thunder would have gave him big money for that "5th year"......
You could be injured today man. Never gonna hate on an athlete for taking the cash. Its not an office job dude. He puts his body on the line for your entertainment. He could blow himself out at any moment.

And no its a big difference when theres no state tax. Thats why teh heat were able to come together and why all the big 3 took less money. Cause if theres a state tax then it equals the same amount they got in florida anyway.

Not to mention the fact that the contrac tis bigger. So yea hes gonna get way more money. Good for him, he deserves it. And also he deserves to be a marquee player.

And i think hell compliment lin well. HOpe to see harden have a great season.

[Freedom Kid7]

Harden is still only, what, 22? He's a beast. Pretty sure JJ averaged 25 PPG one time too, let's not act like JJ isn't a legit all-star.
JJ is a decent guy and while he has been all-star worthy, he put Atlanta in the greatest hole of mediocrity with no way out. His bloated contract was absurd and he did not prove his worth.

[Qwyjibo]

JJ is a decent guy and while he has been all-star worthy, he put Atlanta in the greatest hole of mediocrity with no way out. His bloated contract was absurd and he did not prove his worth.
That was his second contract. His first contract after leaving Phoenix was totally worth it. Atlanta got great value for JJ in those years. This is where Harden is at right now.

[Freedom Kid7]

That was his second contract. His first contract after leaving Phoenix was totally worth it. Atlanta got great value for JJ in those years. This is where Harden is at right now.
His first contract wasn't too good either. 12 mil/year for a couple of crappy seasons and an at best second round exit? Granted, it's better than the one he has now, but still. I don't like this trade

[Qwyjibo]

His first contract wasn't too good either. 12 mil/year for a couple of crappy seasons and an at best second round exit? Granted, it's better than the one he has now, but still. I don't like this trade
I don't know how you can call those first several years with Atlanta crappy. JJ did his part by having some legit All-Star years. And again, Harden is a better player than JJ was at the same age.

Not making it far in the playoffs? That's a team issue. I'm not putting that on any one player in any situation. Especially a player that was clearly productive.

[longtime lurker]

http://www.the-coli.com/images/smilies/rudy.png

Harden is still only, what, 22? He's a beast. Pretty sure JJ averaged 25 PPG one time too, let's not act like JJ isn't a legit all-star.

JJ is not worth a max contract and has never been. It's one thing to put up numbers it's another to be a difference maker. Max contracts should only be reserved for the top tier NBA players.

[IGOTGAME]

I hate when people do this....even Bill Simmons now doing it.

Why does that extra year even matter? What is James Harden, 24 years old? Does anyone think he won't get big money 4 years from now?

So Simmons makes it seem its a 25 million dollar difference, but its not. It's probably $5 - 6 million in first 4 years, like others have said. Bad logic. When the time came, Thunder would have gave him big money for that "5th year"......

One big injury and you are not getting that next big contract. That is how you HAVE to think if you are in the NBA. Your next K can always be your last.

Bill Simmons dropping knowledge today.

[Carbine]

IIRC, Johnson sucked in the playoffs while with Atlanta. He doesn't deserve to be ridiculed for not winning a title though, the team around him wasn't a great supporting cast to expect that....and Johnson was in a position (lead dog) that he is not cut out for.

[miles berg]

I think you'd be hard pressed to find a GM fork over anywhere near that type of money for a Harden type player 4-5 years from now. Joe Johnson is now an example to owners everywhere as to why you don't sign a marginal all-star to that type of money.

Nah, you would have thought the same thing after Allan Houston yet there was Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis, Joe Johnson, etc...getting those same deals.

[RaininTwos]

For all of the flack that Atlanta got for JJ's contract, with him they went from lottery dwellers to knocking on the door of the ECF. Those extra games and exposure mean a ton when it comes time to look at the bottom line. Plus, shedding that loser label they had for so long is immensely valuable as well.

[longtime lurker]

For all of the flack that Atlanta got for JJ's contract, with him they went from lottery dwellers to knocking on the door of the ECF. Those extra games and exposure mean a ton when it comes time to look at the bottom line. Plus, shedding that loser label they had for so long is immensely valuable as well.

You know what else could have done that? Not being idiots and draft Chris Paul.

[BlueandGold]

OMG when did Harden become so ridiculously overrated? Why is it so hard to believe that OKC didn't think he's worth a max contract. Harden's ceiling is Joe Johnson and if you don't think Joe Johnson is worth the max then he's definitely not worth the max. OKC would get criticized no matter what they do. If they signed Harden we'd hear complaining in the next CBA that they're forced to sign him to a max to be competitive despite not being worth the money, then bitterness when he doesn't live up to the expectation. IF they let him go we'd hear complaining that they were forced to give up Harden because they're a poor small market franchise blah blah blah. In reality they did the smart thing and traded him while his value was still high, there's no doubt they got value in return, but we could be looking at a potential dynasty.
Good points, Harden is an underachieving, undersized JJ at BEST.

[RaininTwos]

You know what else could have done that? Not being idiots and draft Chris Paul.
They could have had both. Could is a word that could apply to every team since they all have made mistakes.

[longtime lurker]

They could have had both. Could is a word that could apply to every team since they all have made mistakes.

You draft Chris Paul and you don't have to overpay Joe Johnson that's the point. And you get further than just knocking on the ECF door.

[BlackVVaves]

They could have had both. Could is a word that could apply to every team since they all have made mistakes.

Not as many as the ATL scouts have made over the years. Could have had CP3 or Deron Williams, when their glaring need was a point guard. :facepalm

And they used lottery picks on Marvin Williams and Shelden Williams :roll:

[RaininTwos]

You draft Chris Paul and you don't have to overpay Joe Johnson that's the point. And you get further than just knocking on the ECF door.
But they didn't. So your point is way beyond irrelevant since that Paul was drafted in 2005 and JJ was re-signed in 2010. They did what they felt they had to do at the time.


Not as many as the ATL scouts have made over the years. Could have had CP3 or Deron Williams, when their glaring need was a point guard. :facepalm

And they used lottery picks on Marvin Williams and Shelden Williams :roll:
I'm well aware of this. Other teams have made many mistakes as well.

[longtime lurker]

Good points, Harden is an underachieving, undersized JJ at BEST.

If you listened to posters on this board you'd think it was Harden that lead the Thunder to the finals and not his other 2 all NBA teammates.

[Legends66NBA7]

Not as many as the ATL scouts have made over the years. Could have had CP3 or Deron Williams, when their glaring need was a point guard. :facepalm

And they used lottery picks on Marvin Williams and Shelden Williams :roll:

And one of the picks they traded away to get Joe Johnson turned out to be Rajon Rondo.

[longtime lurker]

But they didn't. So your point is way beyond irrelevant since that Paul was drafted in 2005 and JJ was re-signed in 2010. They did what they felt they had to do at the time.

No my point is not irrelevant. The point you can't seem to comprehend is that everything is related to decision making. If you continue making bad decisions then your team will continue to go no where. Everyone except Atlanta's management seemed to think signing Joe Johnson was idiotic at the time. A point that's reinforced by the fact that they traded him 2 years later. You make it seem like overpaying Joe Johnson was the only choice.

[RaininTwos]

No my point is not irrelevant. The point you can't seem to comprehend is that everything is related to decision making. If you continue making bad decisions then your team will continue to go no where. Everyone except Atlanta's management seemed to think signing Joe Johnson was idiotic at the time. A point that's reinforced by the fact that they traded him 2 years later. You make it seem like overpaying Joe Johnson was the only choice.

Are you always this obnoxious? I said that your point was irrelevant, did I attack you personally? No need to elevate this discussion into an argument due to your sensitivity. Bottom line: stop taking things personally.

The last half of that poorly thought out paragraph is so wrong. No one faulted Atlanta for signing JJ, it was the money that was the problem. They shouldn't have signed him to the max. Something everyone agreed with.

The contract wasn't the only reason they traded him, the team was stuck in a rut and they needed to move him and shake things up. They are trying to do a quick rebuild.

"You make it seem like overpaying Joe Johnson was the only choice."

No, I did not. That's your silly interpretation of my post. How do you misconstrue a sentence like that?

[3peated]

i don't like this guy (simmons) he acts like a virgin, and just wants to stir up controversy like a teenage girl. fk him.

[Rubio2Gasol]

Joe Johnson?

Playoff Cancer just like Stack.

I think Harden is going to be better than him.

[G-train]

I hate when people do this....even Bill Simmons now doing it.

Why does that extra year even matter? What is James Harden, 24 years old? Does anyone think he won't get big money 4 years from now?

So Simmons makes it seem its a 25 million dollar difference, but its not. It's probably $5 - 6 million in first 4 years, like others have said. Bad logic. When the time came, Thunder would have gave him big money for that "5th year"......

The difference is obvious - one year of more money GUARANTEED regardless of what happens after the moment he signs it.
It's easy to sit here and say 'yeah he will get another contract'. Not so easy when an extra $25m is GUARANTEED right in front of you with pen in hand, no matter if you lose form, break a leg or get your beard caught in a train door.

[longtime lurker]

Are you always this obnoxious? I said that your point was irrelevant, did I attack you personally? No need to elevate this discussion into an argument due to your sensitivity. Bottom line: stop taking things personally.

The last half of that poorly thought out paragraph is so wrong. No one faulted Atlanta for signing JJ, it was the money that was the problem. They shouldn't have signed him to the max. Something everyone agreed with.

The contract wasn't the only reason they traded him, the team was stuck in a rut and they needed to move him and shake things up. They are trying to do a quick rebuild.

"You make it seem like overpaying Joe Johnson was the only choice."

No, I did not. That's your silly interpretation of my post. How do you misconstrue a sentence like that?

So if you agree that Joe Johnson isn't worth a max contract then what exactly are you arguing? My point is that Harden's ceiling is Joe Johnson, the real Joe Johnson is not worth a max contract(which you agree with) so Harden is not worth a max contract either. Your point is that yes Atlanta overpaid but it was worth it being in the second round and generating fan interest. My counterpoint is that had they made better decisions their ceiling would be better than the ECF. Of course if Joe Johnson was on a better contract they might have kept him, but it's the fact that he was so ridiculously overpaid relative to his performance that Atlanta was forced to trade him. If Joe Johnson was on a more reasonable contract there's a chance that they don't trade him, it's more than just a move to shake things up.

[WillC]

He is scared to stay at the Skirvin Hotel when he comes here. He thinks he heard a ghost.

I stayed in the Skirvin in the summer. I had no idea it was meant to be haunted until I read your post. I've spent the last 30 minutes reading about it. Bill Simmons' story is fascinating.

[RRR3]

Good points, Harden is an underachieving, undersized JJ at BEST.
How on earth is Harden an underachiever?

[G-train]

I think Harden has a higher peak than Johnson. Different mentality too.

[IGOTGAME]

How on earth is Harden an underachiever?

idk, people are just getting silly.

[kuniva_dAMiGhTy]

Are you always this obnoxious? I said that your point was irrelevant, did I attack you personally? No need to elevate this discussion into an argument due to your sensitivity. Bottom line: stop taking things personally.

The last half of that poorly thought out paragraph is so wrong. No one faulted Atlanta for signing JJ, it was the money that was the problem. They shouldn't have signed him to the max. Something everyone agreed with.

The contract wasn't the only reason they traded him, the team was stuck in a rut and they needed to move him and shake things up. They are trying to do a quick rebuild.

"You make it seem like overpaying Joe Johnson was the only choice."

No, I did not. That's your silly interpretation of my post. How do you misconstrue a sentence like that?

Funny, you're actually the one coming off as obnoxious and sensitive. :oldlol:

[RaininTwos]

So if you agree that Joe Johnson isn't worth a max contract then what exactly are you arguing? My point is that Harden's ceiling is Joe Johnson, the real Joe Johnson is not worth a max contract(which you agree with) so Harden is not worth a max contract either. Your point is that yes Atlanta overpaid but it was worth it being in the second round and generating fan interest. My counterpoint is that had they made better decisions their ceiling would be better than the ECF. Of course if Joe Johnson was on a better contract they might have kept him, but it's the fact that he was so ridiculously overpaid relative to his performance that Atlanta was forced to trade him. If Joe Johnson was on a more reasonable contract there's a chance that they don't trade him, it's more than just a move to shake things up.

In regards to the bolded: What? I haven't even commented on Harden in this thread.

Back to JJ:

They weren't going to keep him unless he was at a bargain basement price, the owner was talking about making moves to make a legit contender.

My original post in this thread did not say that his contract was worth it, I merely pointed out the positives of his presence on the team.

[stalf]

okc state tax: 5.5%
houston: 0%
thats a lil over 2mil, 3mil on 60/4.
extra 6 mil from houston plus the state tax is 9mil.

E: i think, correct me if wrong?

[kenny817]

One big injury and you are not getting that next big contract. That is how you HAVE to think if you are in the NBA. Your next K can always be your last.

Bill Simmons dropping knowledge today.

Oh? He didn't even know the qualifications of receiving a no-trade clause

[NumberSix]

okc state tax: 5.5%
houston: 0%
thats a lil over 2mil, 3mil on 60/4.
extra 6 mil from houston plus the state tax is 9mil.

E: i think, correct me if wrong?
A little known fact is that nba players don't pay state taxes the way normal citizens do. The state taxes are shared kind of how revenues are shared evenly amongst teams. Every player pays the league an averaged rate of all the states that have teams current tax rates. The nba then pays out what is owed to each state. You pay the same state tax rate regardless of which team you play for.

[spiegel]

Harden will now be exposed to the massive Asian market because of the popularity we have in that part of the world. He will be rolling in cash now.