Nerlens Noel may miss whole 2013-2014 season?

[brandonislegend]

A handful of NBA teams told ESPN that their doctors believe Kentucky C Nerlens Noel (ACL) will have to miss the entire 2013-14 season.
Noel tore his ACL in February and underwent surgery in March. As we saw with Derrick Rose, it's a wildly unpredictable injury. Noel expects to be ready by December, but it's unclear if a team will clear him at that point. Throwing a 206-pound rookie center into the NBA's interior off a knee reconstruction too early could spell disaster.
Source: ESPN.com May 28 - 4:49 PM

Who will the Cavs take?

[andremiller07]

A handful of NBA teams told ESPN that their doctors believe Kentucky C Nerlens Noel (ACL) will have to miss the entire 2013-14 season.
Noel tore his ACL in February and underwent surgery in March. As we saw with Derrick Rose, it's a wildly unpredictable injury. Noel expects to be ready by December, but it's unclear if a team will clear him at that point. Throwing a 206-pound rookie center into the NBA's interior off a knee reconstruction too early could spell disaster.
Source: ESPN.com May 28 - 4:49 PM

Who will the Cavs take?
If he does miss the whole season I guess it gives Cavs a even better chance @ another #1 pick next season with Wiggins and others coming out.

[Fudge]

Otto Porter

[turnaroundJ]

If so, then he's every lottery team's dream pick!

Not only do they get this years first overall (or top 3 at worst), they also get to tank and suck for another year to land another top pick!

[KDthunderup]

Pretty much the maximum anyone takes to get back is 1 year, I highly doubt he sits the whole year.

[brandonislegend]

If he does miss the whole season I guess it gives Cavs a even better chance @ another #1 pick next season with Wiggins and others coming out.

true :oldlol:

[melih69]

If he does miss the whole season I guess it gives Cavs a even better chance @ another #1 pick next season with Wiggins and others coming out.
nah cavs will be much better. irving, waiters, thompson, varejao back etc. they won't be close to getting the number 1 pick, with or without noel imo

every team under .500 should tank for wiggins or parker

[RedBlackAttack]

Considering Noel hasn't met with a single team yet, let alone been looked at by any team's doctors, this is more likely a strategic usage of the press to try to lessen his value. I'm guessing the teams saying this are likely picking 2-5.

Noel is clearly the No. 1 pick unless there are REAL red flags about his recovery, which we won't know until another couple weeks.

[Is He Ill]

If so, then he's every lottery team's dream pick!

Not only do they get this years first overall (or top 3 at worst), they also get to tank and suck for another year to land another top pick!

I sincerely doubt that any of this year's rookies have the ability to make enough of a contribution to turn a losing team to much of a better team during their first season. I think the Cavs will improve next season without Noel anyway with the strides that Kyrie is taking. Unless they get lucky in the lottery, I find it hard to believe that they have a legitimate shot at Wiggins.

[PleezeBelieve]

Cavs will drafting Young Olajuwon in about a month.

Try again...

[ProfessorMurder]

Seems like a fine idea to me.

You're only going to hurt your stock more if you come back rusty as things are ramping up for the tournament.

Take the safe road, sign to a team and get paid.

[dbk123]

Inb4 magic draft mclemore and he becomes prime ray Allen 2.0

[PleezeBelieve]

Inb4 magic draft mclemore and he becomes prime ray Allen 2.0
You mean prime Jason Richardson?

[RedBlackAttack]

Inb4 magic draft mclemore and he becomes prime ray Allen 2.0
I was sold on Noel as the Cavs pick before I started heavily researching the kid. Now, I'm going to be absolutely shocked if he isn't the pick. It is a no-brainer.

Couple of notes which I think are important...

1. Because of his reclassification, Noel didn't even get on UK's campus until August. Incoming freshmen usually graduate high school in early May and have an additional three months of getting acclimated to their team, their coaches and their strategies.

To me, this is paramount in explaining why Noel had a bit of a slow start to the collegiate season, but turned it on after the first month or so.


2. Coach Cal has said Noel's growth as a player is the largest he has seen over the course of one season.


3. The weight thing is widely overblown. He weighed in at a measly 206 at the combine, but this was after Dr. James Andrews told him to lose as much weight as he could to lessen the stress on his knee while it recovers. His playing weight was between 220-225.

Joakim Noah measured 7-foot, 223 at the 2007 combine... And not as an 18-19-year-old, but as a 22-year-old. KG was 6-11, 216. Tyson Chandler was in the 220 range.


4. Despite the cries of this being a "weak" draft, all of the advanced metrics I've seen show Noel is an elite prospect (and Porter gets high marks, too).

Guys like James Brocato have an excellent track record at predicting how players will pan out. In his his scale, any player over a +2 has a high probability of being an All-Star caliber player.

There was one in last year's draft with a +2 rating or better; Anthony Davis with a 3.7. There was one in the 2011 draft; Kyrie Irving with a 3.6. Both of those are extremely high marks. There were none in 2010. The closest were John Wall and Greg Monroe, both with 1.9. Demarcus Cousins and Paul George were tied for 2nd overall with 1.7s.

http://shutupandjam.net/2013/05/24/draft-model-update/


This year, there are two guys with a +2 or better... Noel with 2.9 and Otto Porter with 2.3.

McLemore is 9th with a 0.5. Brocato is also saying, according to his analysis, this is actually the best draft since 2009.

http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/


And, this is not an anomaly. Kevin Polton, who devised the WARP model of advanced metrics, gave Noel a 4.0... Extremely high rating and one of the best in his database for a college prospect.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9123354/2013-nba-draft-nerlens-noel-remains-no-1-ranking-top-30-prospects

Every advanced stat rating I've looked at has Noel the clear No. 1 choice and Otto Porter the only one close.


Considering how much the Cavs are said to value these advanced metrics, I have no doubt -- as long as there are no red flags -- Noel will be the pick. If there are red flags, Porter will be the pick.

I'd be shocked if McLemore was even on their board. It is not a position of need and he isn't a No. 1 overall caliber pick, imo.

[(e)]

Noel and tank tank tank lol

[JimmyMcAdocious]

Rose setting the new standard. :bowdown:

[PleezeBelieve]

As far as the weight issue, what the media is not bringing up is the fact this kid is still growing. He was 6'10 in shoes when he got to Kentucky. Now he's 6'11.75 in shoes. Makes sense that his weight has not stabilized as the kid is still growing. He could be 6'11 in socks by the end of his rookie season.

[RedBlackAttack]

Noel and tank tank tank lol
I don't see any more tanking. With Varejao coming back and Kyrie, Tristan and Dion all a year older, this team will win some games next season. Throw in Mike Brown's defensive approach (the defense was awful last year) and I see a team either in the playoffs or close.

There is always the chance of injuries, especially dealing with Varejao and Kyrie, but outside of that, I don't see this team being amongst the worst in the league.

[RedBlackAttack]

As far as the weight issue, what the media is not bringing up is the fact this kid is still growing. He was 6'10 in shoes when he got to Kentucky. Now he's 6'11.75 in shoes. Makes sense that his weight has not stabilized as the kid is still growing. He could be 6'11 in socks by the end of his rookie season.
The media really hasn't even brought up the fact that he was asked to lose as much weight as possible after the injury to reduce stress on the ligament. His playing weight was 220-225, which is what we should be focusing on.

Essentially, he is being shunned for following the doctors' advice. I heard Coach Cal on the radio last week and was actually p!ssed about it.

[PleezeBelieve]

Whatever the case, this guy will be a monster in the league. He's the best defensive big I've seen since...EVER.

He will be better than Anthony Davis.

He will be the best big in the league by the time he's 25 years old.

The only other big I've seen close to him was Greg Oden but Oden didn't have this guy's lateral movement and overall foot speed.

[andremiller07]

There is always the chance of injuries, especially dealing with Varejao and Kyrie, but outside of that, I don't see this team being amongst the worst in the league.

That is gonna be a huge concern and if history is anything to go by at least one will miss extended time.

[WeGetRing2012]

I was sold on Noel as the Cavs pick before I started heavily researching the kid. Now, I'm going to be absolutely shocked if he isn't the pick. It is a no-brainer.

Couple of notes which I think are important...

1. Because of his reclassification, Noel didn't even get on UK's campus until August. Incoming freshmen usually graduate high school in early May and have an additional three months of getting acclimated to their team, their coaches and their strategies.

To me, this is paramount in explaining why Noel had a bit of a slow start to the collegiate season, but turned it on after the first month or so.


2. Coach Cal has said Noel's growth as a player is the largest he has seen over the course of one season.


3. The weight thing is widely overblown. He weighed in at a measly 206 at the combine, but this was after Dr. James Andrews told him to lose as much weight as he could to lessen the stress on his knee while it recovers. His playing weight was between 220-225.

Joakim Noah measured 7-foot, 223 at the 2007 combine... And not as an 18-19-year-old, but as a 22-year-old. KG was 6-11, 216. Tyson Chandler was in the 220 range.


4. Despite the cries of this being a "weak" draft, all of the advanced metrics I've seen show Noel is an elite prospect (and Porter gets high marks, too).

Guys like James Brocato have an excellent track record at predicting how players will pan out. In his his scale, any player over a +2 has a high probability of being an All-Star caliber player.

There was one in last year's draft with a +2 rating or better; Anthony Davis with a 3.7. There was one in the 2011 draft; Kyrie Irving with a 3.6. Both of those are extremely high marks. There were none in 2010. The closest were John Wall and Greg Monroe, both with 1.9. Demarcus Cousins and Paul George were tied for 2nd overall with 1.7s.

http://shutupandjam.net/2013/05/24/draft-model-update/


This year, there are two guys with a +2 or better... Noel with 2.9 and Otto Porter with 2.3.

McLemore is 9th with a 0.5. Brocato is also saying, according to his analysis, this is actually the best draft since 2009.

http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/


And, this is not an anomaly. Kevin Polton, who devised the WARP model of advanced metrics, gave Noel a 4.0... Extremely high rating and one of the best in his database for a college prospect.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9123354/2013-nba-draft-nerlens-noel-remains-no-1-ranking-top-30-prospects

Every advanced stat rating I've looked at has Noel the clear No. 1 choice and Otto Porter the only one close.


Considering how much the Cavs are said to value these advanced metrics, I have no doubt -- as long as there are no red flags -- Noel will be the pick. If there are red flags, Porter will be the pick.

I'd be shocked if McLemore was even on their board. It is not a position of need and he isn't a No. 1 overall caliber pick, imo.

Good post.

[PleezeBelieve]

The media really hasn't even brought up the fact that he was asked to lose as much weight as possible after the injury to reduce stress on the ligament. His playing weight was 220-225, which is what we should be focusing on.

Essentially, he is being shunned for following the doctors' advice. I heard Coach Cal on the radio last week and was actually p!ssed about it.
Well, I attribute the weight loss more to his height gain rather than doctors orders. Maybe it's the other way around but regardless, I'm very intrigued to see where this guy is at the end of his season physically.

7'1, 225??

[RedBlackAttack]

That is gonna be a huge concern and if history is anything to go by at least one will miss extended time.
Right. But, you can't project a team's chances when neither guy is currently hurt and we have no clue how the season will play out.

Your projections change when injuries happen. You can't work those in to your preseason expectations.

[andremiller07]

Right. But, you can't project a team's chances when neither guy is currently hurt and we have no clue how the season will play out.

Your projections change when injuries happen. You can't work those in to your preseason expectations.
Assuming they draft Noel where do you expect the Cavs to be if they are for the most part healthy?

[RedBlackAttack]

Well, I attribute the weight loss more to his height gain rather than doctors orders. Maybe it's the other way around but regardless, I'm very intrigued to see where this guy is at the end of his season physically.

7'1, 225??
Could be a combination of both, but -- like I said -- Coach Cal was very visibly annoyed at the persistence that his playing weight is anything close to 206.

Point is, prospects like Noel do not come along too often. His combination of length and raw athleticism are mouth-watering, especially for fans of a team who has had absolutely no resistance at the basket in the last three years.

He is literally the perfect fit.

We are seeing in the Indiana-Miami series just how important it can be to have a guy on your team that blocks/alters shots at the basket. Noel is the best shotblocking prospect I've seen in a long, long time.

[RedBlackAttack]

Assuming they draft Noel where do you expect the Cavs to be if they are for the most part healthy?
I'd say between 7-10 in the East. I'd be pretty surprised if they had one of the worst 10 records in the league given full health all season.

The Cavs took an absolutely massive leap between Silas' last year and when Brown came in. Obviously, LeBron had a lot to do with that, but it also had to do with a renewed focus on the defensive end. I expect a similar focus this year.

He simply will not put up with a lack of effort on the defensive end and Kyrie won't get a pass simply because he's a great offensive talent. I expect him to step up to that challenge just like James did when MB pushed him.

[brantonli]

Considering Noel hasn't met with a single team yet, let alone been looked at by any team's doctors, this is more likely a strategic usage of the press to try to lessen his value. I'm guessing the teams saying this are likely picking 2-5.

Noel is clearly the No. 1 pick unless there are REAL red flags about his recovery, which we won't know until another couple weeks.


Unless they are really really bad and public injuries (like Kawahi Leonard before the draft), I think teams are always willing to gamble on these things. Look at Portland, even though they were warned before hand about both Roy and Oden's possible injuries, didn't stop them for picking them (and wouldn't have stopped any other team either).

[PleezeBelieve]

He plays above the rim equally well on the offense and defense with the left & right hand. This can't be understated. Every time he jumps he's the most explosive player on the court. A 9'2 standing reach with maybe a 37-40 inch plus vertical??

Insane.

And the lateral movement... oh my. I'm about to find a video where Noel does something I've literally never seen a Center do in my life.

[dbk123]

I was sold on Noel as the Cavs pick before I started heavily researching the kid. Now, I'm going to be absolutely shocked if he isn't the pick. It is a no-brainer.

Couple of notes which I think are important...

1. Because of his reclassification, Noel didn't even get on UK's campus until August. Incoming freshmen usually graduate high school in early May and have an additional three months of getting acclimated to their team, their coaches and their strategies.

To me, this is paramount in explaining why Noel had a bit of a slow start to the collegiate season, but turned it on after the first month or so.


2. Coach Cal has said Noel's growth as a player is the largest he has seen over the course of one season.


3. The weight thing is widely overblown. He weighed in at a measly 206 at the combine, but this was after Dr. James Andrews told him to lose as much weight as he could to lessen the stress on his knee while it recovers. His playing weight was between 220-225.

Joakim Noah measured 7-foot, 223 at the 2007 combine... And not as an 18-19-year-old, but as a 22-year-old. KG was 6-11, 216. Tyson Chandler was in the 220 range.


4. Despite the cries of this being a "weak" draft, all of the advanced metrics I've seen show Noel is an elite prospect (and Porter gets high marks, too).

Guys like James Brocato have an excellent track record at predicting how players will pan out. In his his scale, any player over a +2 has a high probability of being an All-Star caliber player.

There was one in last year's draft with a +2 rating or better; Anthony Davis with a 3.7. There was one in the 2011 draft; Kyrie Irving with a 3.6. Both of those are extremely high marks. There were none in 2010. The closest were John Wall and Greg Monroe, both with 1.9. Demarcus Cousins and Paul George were tied for 2nd overall with 1.7s.

http://shutupandjam.net/2013/05/24/draft-model-update/


This year, there are two guys with a +2 or better... Noel with 2.9 and Otto Porter with 2.3.

McLemore is 9th with a 0.5. Brocato is also saying, according to his analysis, this is actually the best draft since 2009.

http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/


And, this is not an anomaly. Kevin Polton, who devised the WARP model of advanced metrics, gave Noel a 4.0... Extremely high rating and one of the best in his database for a college prospect.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9123354/2013-nba-draft-nerlens-noel-remains-no-1-ranking-top-30-prospects

Every advanced stat rating I've looked at has Noel the clear No. 1 choice and Otto Porter the only one close.


Considering how much the Cavs are said to value these advanced metrics, I have no doubt -- as long as there are no red flags -- Noel will be the pick. If there are red flags, Porter will be the pick.

I'd be shocked if McLemore was even on their board. It is not a position of need and he isn't a No. 1 overall caliber pick, imo.


I'm 99% sure that the magic will take mclemore...

[RedBlackAttack]

I'm 99% sure that the magic will take mclemore...
Please note, I'm not saying McLemore will be a bad player in the league. He has a nice jumper (not Ray Allen level, imo) and is an explosive leaper. I'm not sold on his ball-handling or playmaking ability, but on a team with an established PG, he could be a really nice player. Defensively, he has shown good instincts. Problem is, I don't think he's big enough to defend the 3 or quick enough to guard PGs, so he's not all that versatile on that end.

All told, I don't think he's a No. 1 on a good team, but a No. 2 or 3, certainly.

I think the Magic should take Porter, because I think he is second best player in the draft, but I don't think they will. I know they have Harkless and I guess if they value him as a core piece, it wouldn't make a ton of sense to take Porter.

In that case, I probably would be looking at McLemore or Len. However, I hear they really like Trey Burke. He could factor into things, as well.

The only two things I'm sure of right now is that the Cavs will take Noel No. 1 if there are no red flags and Washington will take Porter if he's there at 3.

Everything else is very much up in the air.

[RedBlackAttack]

He plays above the rim equally well on the offense and defense with the left & right hand. This can't be understated. Every time he jumps he's the most explosive player on the court. A 9'2 standing reach with maybe a 37-40 inch plus vertical??

Insane.

And the lateral movement... oh my. I'm about to find a video where Noel does something I've literally never seen a Center do in my life.
I've been pretty shocked by his ball handling and first step as a guy that tall and long. There's a video of him playing one-on-one against some mentally challenged kid, but he's doing moves that you wouldn't expect a guy that big to be doing with no one on the floor.

Have you seen that one? :oldlol:

[PleezeBelieve]

The clip starts @ 56 seconds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRAhiy-xhv0&feature=youtube_gdata_player


Kentucky is on defense. Tennessee ran a typical P&R set from the top to the right side of the court. Tennessee guard has a clear lane to the paint where Noel is standing. The Tennessee guard kicks the ball back out to the top of the key on the left side. That Tennessee player quickly swings the ball to the left corner.

And here is where it begins:

Noel rotates from under the basket to the Tennessee player in the corner. Noel does a PICTURE PREFECT close out a technique. Knees are bent, hands extended out to each side. The Tennessee player pump fakes. Noel stays on his feet. Tennessee player tries to go to his right around Noel, Noel fluidity slides his left foot, opens his stance and picks the ball cleanly away from the Tennessee player.

All happens in three seconds.

This from a 7 footer. Would have been great from a PG.

What ya'll think?

[RedBlackAttack]

The clip starts @ 56 seconds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRAhiy-xhv0&feature=youtube_gdata_player


Kentucky is on defense. Tennessee ran a typical P&R set from the top to the right side of the court. Tennessee guard has a clear lane to the paint where Noel is standing. The Tennessee guard kicks the ball back out to the top of the key on the left side. That Tennessee player quickly swings the ball to the left corner.

And here is where it begins:

Noel rotates from under the basket to the Tennessee player in the corner. Noel does a PICTURE PREFECT close out a technique. Knees are bent, hands extended out to each side. The Tennessee player pump fakes. Noel stays on his feet. Tennessee player tries to go to his right around Noel, Noel fluidity slides his left foot, opens his stance and picks the ball cleanly away from the Tennessee player.

All happens in three seconds.

This from a 7 footer. Would have been great from a PG.

What ya'll think?
First in the SEC in blocks... Second in steals. As a 7-footer.

:eek:

[tgan3]

What if he becomes the next greg oden?

Large men and sore knees are two very bad combination

[PleezeBelieve]

First in the SEC in blocks... Second in steals. As a 7-footer.

:eek:
@ 18 years old the whole season :eek:

[RedBlackAttack]

What if he becomes the next greg oden?

Large men and sore knees are two very bad combination
Noel and Oden had two completely different kinds of injuries. Noel tore his ACL, which is a ligament, by running full speed into the basket apparatus.

Oden had issues with microfractures, which basically means your legs fracture because they cannot hold up the weight of your body.

These days, ACL ligament injuries have a very high success rate.

For instance, Alex Len just had ankle surgery due to issues with a microfracture. It didn't happen on a basketball play... His body is just having issues supporting his weight.

That would scare me a hell of a lot more than a ligament injury due to a basketball play, despite the fact that ACLs take longer to come back from.

Also, Greg Oden's right leg was actually longer than his left, which threw his back out of balance.

His issues had everything to do with the way his body was constructed, not injuries from basketball plays. There is no way to know with 100-percent confidence how a guy's body will handle the rigors of an NBA season, but that's why the Cavs' doctors will be poking and prodding him over the next month to look for any potential red flags.

If they find them, Porter will be the pick. I'm just not expecting an ACL tear to have tons of red flags in 2013.

[G-train]

Noel is legit, barring an injury setback.

I'm tempted to say he has Garnett potential, but Garnett has a case for greatest 4 man ever.

But I think I will say that if he recovers well from injury, he could be one the most valuable players in the league in a few seasons.

His combination of skills would be of extreme value in today's league.

[dbk123]

Is Noel better than Davis? I haven't seen much of Noel in college

[G-train]

Is Noel better than Davis? I haven't seen much of Noel in college

He is rawer than Davis in terms of general basketball skills (midrange J, passing, etc), but he is longer and more athletic.
More of a centre.

[RedBlackAttack]

He is rawer than Davis in terms of general basketball skills (midrange J, passing, etc), but he is longer and more athletic.
More of a centre.
I'd concur with this. Davis is far more advanced in terms of his offensive skillset, which has a lot to do with his playing point guard until his junior year in high school (crazy growth spurt).

However, Noel is a better defensive player and he is more of a natural athlete. Noel also has much larger hands, which is an important and often overlooked benefit for a big man. He can finish with either hand, jump out of the gym and run the break.

Davis was a safer pick, but I think Noel has more of a potential ceiling.

[KeyNote]

Pretty much the maximum anyone takes to get back is 1 year, I highly doubt he sits the whole year.

http://24.media.tumblr.com/dd4dc93ab6520e6ea91bd89f246a1887/tumblr_mnh0ierjBH1ssks2zo2_250.gif

[DukeDelonte13]

The clip starts @ 56 seconds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRAhiy-xhv0&feature=youtube_gdata_player


Kentucky is on defense. Tennessee ran a typical P&R set from the top to the right side of the court. Tennessee guard has a clear lane to the paint where Noel is standing. The Tennessee guard kicks the ball back out to the top of the key on the left side. That Tennessee player quickly swings the ball to the left corner.

And here is where it begins:

Noel rotates from under the basket to the Tennessee player in the corner. Noel does a PICTURE PREFECT close out a technique. Knees are bent, hands extended out to each side. The Tennessee player pump fakes. Noel stays on his feet. Tennessee player tries to go to his right around Noel, Noel fluidity slides his left foot, opens his stance and picks the ball cleanly away from the Tennessee player.

All happens in three seconds.

This from a 7 footer. Would have been great from a PG.

What ya'll think?


His instincts are phenomenal.

Like some other posters here i wasn't initially sold on Nerlens but after a lot of research i think he is far and away the best prospect in this draft.

He's not going to be ROY, he's not going to be putting up crazy stat lines, and he along with Cleveland will certainly be heavily criticized for taking him at #1 due to a lack of production early on; but when this kid grows up a bit more and starts filling out he's going to be an absolute monster.

[BlazerRed]

http://24.media.tumblr.com/dd4dc93ab6520e6ea91bd89f246a1887/tumblr_mnh0ierjBH1ssks2zo2_250.gif
Yes but he's a unique brand of soft.

[Burgz V2]

doesn't matter. he should be the number 1 pick, if not move down and take Otto Porter.

If I were the Cavs I'd take him number 1 and see if any teams are desperate enough to make a deal. If not, just keep him and develop for one more year.

Even with him healthy and playing to his potential, they are still a lottery team. Varejao healthy will make them a better team, but if they aren't in the playoff hunt, he's gone by the deadline I would think.

In any case, a pick anywhere in the lottery next year would be great for them. It isn't Wiggins or bust, there are a number of studs and potential sleepers next year that would help them drastically.

[Inferno]

I was sold on Noel as the Cavs pick before I started heavily researching the kid. Now, I'm going to be absolutely shocked if he isn't the pick. It is a no-brainer.

Couple of notes which I think are important...

1. Because of his reclassification, Noel didn't even get on UK's campus until August. Incoming freshmen usually graduate high school in early May and have an additional three months of getting acclimated to their team, their coaches and their strategies.

To me, this is paramount in explaining why Noel had a bit of a slow start to the collegiate season, but turned it on after the first month or so.


2. Coach Cal has said Noel's growth as a player is the largest he has seen over the course of one season.


3. The weight thing is widely overblown. He weighed in at a measly 206 at the combine, but this was after Dr. James Andrews told him to lose as much weight as he could to lessen the stress on his knee while it recovers. His playing weight was between 220-225.

Joakim Noah measured 7-foot, 223 at the 2007 combine... And not as an 18-19-year-old, but as a 22-year-old. KG was 6-11, 216. Tyson Chandler was in the 220 range.


4. Despite the cries of this being a "weak" draft, all of the advanced metrics I've seen show Noel is an elite prospect (and Porter gets high marks, too).

Guys like James Brocato have an excellent track record at predicting how players will pan out. In his his scale, any player over a +2 has a high probability of being an All-Star caliber player.

There was one in last year's draft with a +2 rating or better; Anthony Davis with a 3.7. There was one in the 2011 draft; Kyrie Irving with a 3.6. Both of those are extremely high marks. There were none in 2010. The closest were John Wall and Greg Monroe, both with 1.9. Demarcus Cousins and Paul George were tied for 2nd overall with 1.7s.

http://shutupandjam.net/2013/05/24/draft-model-update/


This year, there are two guys with a +2 or better... Noel with 2.9 and Otto Porter with 2.3.

McLemore is 9th with a 0.5. Brocato is also saying, according to his analysis, this is actually the best draft since 2009.

http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/


And, this is not an anomaly. Kevin Polton, who devised the WARP model of advanced metrics, gave Noel a 4.0... Extremely high rating and one of the best in his database for a college prospect.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9123354/2013-nba-draft-nerlens-noel-remains-no-1-ranking-top-30-prospects

Every advanced stat rating I've looked at has Noel the clear No. 1 choice and Otto Porter the only one close.


Considering how much the Cavs are said to value these advanced metrics, I have no doubt -- as long as there are no red flags -- Noel will be the pick. If there are red flags, Porter will be the pick.

I'd be shocked if McLemore was even on their board. It is not a position of need and he isn't a No. 1 overall caliber pick, imo.

This Brocato guy gave Damian Lillard a 0.7. And with the way Damian's played and the way he wants to improve, that seems to be way off. So you cant always trust these numbers.

[jamal99]

Inb4 Roy Hibbert abuses this guy on the court...

[ZHAKIDD532]

Not sure you can use a #1 pick on him due to the risks of a big man who relies heavily on his athleticism coming back from an injury like that. But at a certain point, the risk/reward proposition will be too good for a team to pass up in the Top 10 somewhere based on how bad this draft is.

[Glide2keva]

Dude is weak, he should be playing RIGHT NOW. Miss a whole season due to an ACL tear? Who does that. Players should recover in 3 months MAX.

Right?

[UConnCeltics]

RBA- Just wondering, who do you think the Cavs take at 19? Picks 19, 31, and 33 may be good enough to get them back in the lottery too. Doesn't seem like they need to add 4 rookies, but 2 good ones they surely could.

I don't think the Cavs need to tank next year, they just have to be bad. If you land anywhere in the lottery next year you will get a damn good player. Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, Smart, the whole UK team, Michigan has some good players, Gary Harris, etc.

[Johnny Jones]

Is Noel better than Davis? I haven't seen much of Noel in college
Davis will probably be the better offensive player of the 2 but Noel will be the better defensive player/rebounder.

[Nezty]

I don't even know why dude is trying to enter the NBA this year. He's an idiot, the next Greg Oden

[alenleomessi]

what pick would noel go if lets say he decided not to enter this draft and wait for 2014 stacked draft?

[dbk123]

The top 4 in the 2014 draft will be crazy. 1 is probably wiggins but 2-4 will consist or Parker, randle, or Andrew Harrison. All 4 of these would most likely be drafted number one in this years draft

[alenleomessi]

and in that draft model noel is rated 2.9 and drummond 0.5.. it doesnt really make sense..

[Johnny Jones]

and in that draft model noel is rated 2.9 and drummond 0.5.. it doesnt really make sense..
and Chandler Parsons is a -1.1 lol.

[wally_world]

On a side note, i dont remember ACL tears being that common in the past

[Black Joker]

RBA- Just wondering, who do you think the Cavs take at 19? Picks 19, 31, and 33 may be good enough to get them back in the lottery too. Doesn't seem like they need to add 4 rookies, but 2 good ones they surely could.

I don't think the Cavs need to tank next year, they just have to be bad. If you land anywhere in the lottery next year you will get a damn good player. Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, Smart, the whole UK team, Michigan has some good players, Gary Harris, etc.

I know i'm not RBA, but it's highly unlikely we add four rookies this year. the hope would be to package 31+33 (and possibly a future 1st, like the highly protected Kings pick) and get the 13th from the Mavs (who are trying to get rid of the $1.6 cap hold that the pick carries). and then either stay put there or use the 13+19 to move up higher in the lottery if someone we like is there.

if no moves are made, I'd like someone like Reggie Bullock or Adetokunbo at 19.

[DukeDelonte13]

at 19 if cavs don't move up i like Tony Snell or Glen Rice Jr.

[fatboy11]

Considering Noel hasn't met with a single team yet, let alone been looked at by any team's doctors, this is more likely a strategic usage of the press to try to lessen his value. I'm guessing the teams saying this are likely picking 2-5.

Noel is clearly the No. 1 pick unless there are REAL red flags about his recovery, which we won't know until another couple weeks.

Exactly what I was going to say.

[Burgz V2]

its all smoke and mirrors at this point. This happens every year.

[AKADS]

Why would one of the best defensive coaches not take one of the top defensive prospects in years.

AV and Noel is a very good defensive and TT is only going to get better under Brown.

Cavs will make the playoffs next yr

[kurple]

If he does miss the whole season I guess it gives Cavs a even better chance @ another #1 pick next season with Wiggins and others coming out.
they wont be bad enough to get the worst record in the league with Irving and D-Wait

and them winning the lottery AGAIN seems unlikely

[BoutPractice]

It's a perfect year to stash and tank anyway. One team in the top 3 should take a chance on him.

[boozehound]

Pretty much the maximum anyone takes to get back is 1 year, I highly doubt he sits the whole year.
yep. one year is the absolute maximum. Oh wait..... hi chicago

[RedBlackAttack]

RBA- Just wondering, who do you think the Cavs take at 19? Picks 19, 31, and 33 may be good enough to get them back in the lottery too. Doesn't seem like they need to add 4 rookies, but 2 good ones they surely could.

I don't think the Cavs need to tank next year, they just have to be bad. If you land anywhere in the lottery next year you will get a damn good player. Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, Smart, the whole UK team, Michigan has some good players, Gary Harris, etc.
Not surprisingly, me and Black Joker are pretty much on the same page. There's no way we're bringing in four rookies. I'd be surprised with three. More than likely, it will be just two.

I've heard a deal of the Cavs' #19, #31 and #33 picks for Shawn Marion and #13 was already turned down by the Cavs, likely because they want more if they're going to take on Marion's (terrible) contract situation.

So, they're already exploring avenues to package and move up just like they did last year for Zeller.

I also heard that the Knicks put #24 on the table for #31 and #33. The Cavs are weighing that possibility. If they did get #24, I'd imagine packaging #19 and #24 could yield possibly a late lottery pick from someone.

I really haven't studied up much on the guys who may be available there, I've been focusing so much on the No. 1 pick. A lot of it will depend on how we go with No. 1, but assuming we take Noel, I would assume SF would be the first option, if there's a good one available in that area. The Russian kid (Karasev?) is an interesting prospect. Same thing with Saric. I'd say both those guys are a possibility.

I'd also not be shocked if they paired Noel up with a another big guy... If we traded up into the late lottery and a guy like Cody Zeller was still on the board, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they pulled the trigger.

Varejao, Noel, Thompson, C. Zeller, T. Zeller? Andy could be the mentor and that would be a pretty nice rotation of bigs for the future with a nice combination of athleticism/finesse and offense/defense.

Interesting to think about.

[RedBlackAttack]

This Brocato guy gave Damian Lillard a 0.7. And with the way Damian's played and the way he wants to improve, that seems to be way off. So you cant always trust these numbers.
Couple things...

First, your focusing on one guy as being lower than maybe he should have instead of looking at the whole picture. Lillard was ranked 6th on his board and that is exactly where he was drafted. Obviously, his numbers didn't end up putting Lillard further down than Lillard was on draft boards.

Secondly, 0.7 is actually a good score. Anything in the + column means the guy is projected to be a good player, if you read his breakdowns. The vast majority of guys are in the negative.

Third, this is not a number just based on rookie years, it is a career projector. I do think Lillard is a legit player and will continue to be, but I'd be surprised if he remained the best player in this draft class, considering his age and the situation he was drafted into as compared with others.

Lastly, instead of focusing on Lillard who may be a few notches below where we think he might belong, how about the stuff he has gotten right which was against conventional wisdom at the time?

In last year's draft, he had Waiters as the 3rd overall best prospect. Everyone was shocked when the Cavs took him at No. 4 and he ended up making first team all-rookie.

Thomas Robinson, meanwhile, was seen as maybe the 2nd best player in the draft by A LOT of people this time last year. Brocato had him at 12th, which would have been scoffed at by most people. Now, it looks like a pretty good call.

The year before has some even better calls. Obviously, Kyrie was No. 1, but he has Kawhi Leonard as 2nd overall. He was drafted, what? 15th?

He also looks on target with Tristan Thompson and he even had Jimmy Butler as the No. 7 overall prospect in 2011. He was the 30th pick and wasn't on anyone's radar that high.


There is no perfect diagram to drafting players, but if you look through these draft lists objectively, there are far more hits than misses and he's generally been right on about the top guys.

[brandonislegend]

There is quite a bit of delusion in this thread.

1. Cavs fans thinking they are going to complete healthy for a whole season, I'm the biggest Kyrie fan ever but he always gets hurt even if it's small things at this point he is injury prone , and Andy too. Didn't waiters have knee problem as well.

2. If the cavs tank again this season have fun watching Kyrie leave just like LeBron did.

[outbreak]

One thing to remember was that from what I read all noel's doctors have estimated he will be back a couple months before December. It was Noel himself who said that he would be cleared earlier but he personally would aim for christmas time to allow the extra time to heal. I don't see him missing a whole season. He also lost a lot of weight and muscle while injured, he was a bit bigger when playing, I'm sure once he heals up a bit he will be able to lift weights and get some strength back

[RedBlackAttack]

There is quite a bit of delusion in this thread.

1. Cavs fans thinking they are going to complete healthy for a whole season, I'm the biggest Kyrie fan ever but he always gets hurt even if it's small things at this point he is injury prone , and Andy too. Didn't waiters have knee problem as well.

2. If the cavs tank again this season have fun watching Kyrie leave just like LeBron did.
1. Please point out the Cavs fans in this thread who said the Cavs were going to be completely healthy this season.

2. There will be no tanking. However, there may be losing if your boy continues to miss 30 games a season. And he has no room to complain if he does.

[LLK21]

Don't go down the Rose path, Noel.

[RedBlackAttack]

One thing to remember was that from what I read all noel's doctors have estimated he will be back a couple months before December. It was Noel himself who said that he would be cleared earlier but he personally would aim for christmas time to allow the extra time to heal. I don't see him missing a whole season. He also lost a lot of weight and muscle while injured, he was a bit bigger when playing, I'm sure once he heals up a bit he will be able to lift weights and get some strength back
Once again, doctors asked him to lose as much weight as possible to limit stress on the ligament. His playing weight was between 220-225.

[PrettyCool]

Noel is gonna be a monster

[NumberSix]

"Nerlens" is such a dumb name.

[Black Joker]

There is quite a bit of delusion in this thread.

1. Cavs fans thinking they are going to complete healthy for a whole season, I'm the biggest Kyrie fan ever but he always gets hurt even if it's small things at this point he is injury prone , and Andy too. Didn't waiters have knee problem as well.

2. If the cavs tank again this season have fun watching Kyrie leave just like LeBron did.

while it would be might be a little far fetched to think that Kyrie will come back next year as some sort of Iron Man and will play every game, you also have to take into account that a lot of the time he's missed over the past couple of years has been because the team has tanked and saw no reason to have him play through anything. for example, check out what Kyrie was saying after the end of the last home game the Cavs played this year against the Heat.

[QUOTE]

Coach Byron Scott said he thought Irving was injured on the game

[chips93]

If he does miss the whole season I guess it gives Cavs a even better chance @ another #1 pick next season with Wiggins and others coming out.

the cavs have made winning, and aiming for the playoffs next year, the priority. no tanking next year, gilbert has made that very clear.

[RedBlackAttack]

while it would be might be a little far fetched to think that Kyrie will come back next year as some sort of Iron Man and will play every game, you also have to take into account that a lot of the time he's missed over the past couple of years has been because the team has tanked and saw no reason to have him play through anything. for example, check out what Kyrie was saying after the end of the last home game the Cavs played this year against the Heat.
Oh, no doubt. They were being cautious with him, which is smart. But, if there were no injuries to begin with, he wouldn't have missed time in the first place. He has been a bit injury prone over his first two years and his one year at Duke. There is no denying it... And I love the kid as a player.

I'm not really all that concerned right now, because there haven't been any injuries that threaten his longterm health or look to be reoccurring issues, but I'd be disingenuous if I tried to play off his accumulated missed games as all the Cavs' idea. Kyrie has gotten hurt... A lot for such a young guy.

[chips93]

2. Coach Cal has said Noel's growth as a player is the largest he has seen over the course of one season.

you made some very good point, but i really dont listen to much calipari says about his former players.

its in his best interest for noel to go number 1, so he can use that for recruiting, ''come to kentucky, and i'll turn you into a number 1 pick, just like rose, wall, davis & noel''. but cal always goes so over the top in his praise of his former players, i just cant put much weight into his opinion of his former players.

[RedBlackAttack]

you made some very good point, but i really dont listen to much calipari says about his former players.

its in his best interest for noel to go number 1, so he can use that for recruiting, ''come to kentucky, and i'll turn you into a number 1 pick, just like rose, wall, davis & noel''. but cal always goes so over the top in his praise of his former players, i just cant put much weight into his opinion of his former players.
Cal is a snake oil salesman for sure. I combine his comments with what I saw on the court, though. And the fact that he didn't get on campus until August, which is uncommon for such a highly touted recruit.

Cal is a slippery cat, though.

[Black Joker]

Oh, no doubt. They were being cautious with him, which is smart. But, if there were no injuries to begin with, he wouldn't have missed time in the first place. He has been a bit injury prone over his first two years and his one year at Duke. There is no denying it... And I love the kid as a player.

I'm not really all that concerned right now, because there haven't been any injuries that threaten his longterm health or look to be reoccurring issues, but I'd be disingenuous if I tried to play off his accumulated missed games as all the Cavs' idea. Kyrie has gotten hurt... A lot for such a young guy.

no disagreement here. just making sure to provide a little context for the time missed.

[chips93]

Cal is a snake oil salesman for sure. I combine his comments with what I saw on the court, though. And the fact that he didn't get on campus until August, which is uncommon for such a highly touted recruit.

Cal is a slippery cat, though.

drummond was the same though, he committed really late in the summer, and got on campus really late, so maybe that helps explain his year at uconn

also, jabari parker, all of kentucky's recruits arent playing and team usa ball this year. aaron gordon, and hollis-jefferson are really the only major recruits that are gonna player international. and the reason they all didnt want to play, was because they wanted to practice, and get acclimated on campus. so that really speaks volumes, of how valuable that time can be.

[andremiller07]

the cavs have made winning, and aiming for the playoffs next year, the priority. no tanking next year, gilbert has made that very clear.
It was a joke

[chips93]

It was a joke

um, yeah . . . so was my response :lol

[longtime lurker]

Unless this is a Greg Oden situation I don't see the Cavs passing up on this kid. ACL injuries aren't career threatening and he's still young but damn 206 and I'm assuming he's 6'10 :eek: he's rail thin

[RedBlackAttack]

Unless this is a Greg Oden situation I don't see the Cavs passing up on this kid. ACL injuries aren't career threatening and he's still young but damn 206 and I'm assuming he's 6'10 :eek: he's rail thin
THE DOCTORS TOLD HIM TO LOSE WEIGHT.

His playing weight was in the 220-225 range. Grrrr.


This is getting almost as bad as, "The Cavs didn't want to give up JJ Hickson for Amar'e Stoudemire?!"

(that doesn't sound quite as bad these days, btw, even though it was never true)

[Black Joker]

THE DOCTORS TOLD HIM TO LOSE WEIGHT.

His playing weight was in the 220-225 range. Grrrr.


This is getting almost as bad as, "The Cavs didn't want to give up JJ Hickson for Amar'e Stoudemire?!"

(that doesn't sound quite as bad these days, btw, even though it was never true)
not to mention that even pre-college, at the 2012 Nike Hoop Summit, he weighed around 216. the 206 weight at the combine is artificially low

once these things snowball, they are impossible to stop.

and stealing this from another site i frequent


just don’t get why people are worried about Noel’s weight if his playing weight was 215-220 as widely reported. All heights were sans shoes, so they are directly comparable:

Nerlens Noel – 206 lbs, 6’10", 19 yo (215-220 playing weight before injury)
Kevin Garnett – 217 lbs, 6’11", 19 yo
Larry Sanders – 217 lbs, 6’10", 21 yo
Marcus Camby – 223 lbs, 6’11", 22 yo
Joakim Noah – 223 lbs, 6’10.5", 22 yo
Chris Bosh – 225 lbs, 6’10.5", 19 yo
Marcin Gortat – 225 lbs, 6’11", 21 yo
Dikembe Mutombo – 228 lbs, 7’1.25", 24 yo
…and the list goes on

So you have a list of solid-to-great players, who no longer get bullied in the paint because gasp! people with nothing to do but lift weights put on weight. And MOST of which already had 2-3 more years of college weight training on them?

[RedBlackAttack]

Some interesting tweets about my man Nerlens from the last few hours...

From Andy Katz, ESPN Insider:


According to Noel's camp, Nerlens is up from 206 to 212 (since Chicago two weeks ago, maybe from last week when I saw him in BHM).


Don't expect Noel to visit anymore teams outside of Cleveland and Orlando unless there is a trade up to 1 or 2 or strong sense of one.


From Mary J. Boyer, Cavs beat-writer for the Plain Dealer:


Nerlen's Noel just finished SIX HOURS of rehab. Now off to do some stationary shooting. Work ethic off the charts. #Cavs

:applause:

[IGOTGAME]

Guys work ethic is not off the charts. He has zero of the skill that gets developed in the gym. Dont focus on presrafr look at his life and current skill set. He doesn't have move.

[PleezeBelieve]

Guys work ethic is not off the charts. He has zero of the skill that gets developed in the gym. Dont focus on presrafr look at his life and current skill set. He doesn't have move.
Young Olajuwon said GET THAT WEAK STUFF OUTTA HERE

[RedBlackAttack]

not to mention that even pre-college, at the 2012 Nike Hoop Summit, he weighed around 216. the 206 weight at the combine is artificially low

once these things snowball, they are impossible to stop.

and stealing this from another site i frequent

You can also add to that list...

1992 - PJ Brown - 6'10" 225 pounds, 22 y/o
1995 - Rasheed Wallace - 7'0" 229 pounds, 20 y/o
1995 - Theo Ratliff - 6'10", 214 pounds, 22 y/o
2001 - Tyson Chandler - 7'1" 224 pounds, 19 y/o
2002 - Chris Wilcox - 6'10" 218 pounds, 20 y/o
2005 - Marcon Gortat - 7'0" 225 pounds, 21 y/o

Plenty more where those came from.

[RedBlackAttack]

Guys work ethic is not off the charts. He has zero of the skill that gets developed in the gym. Dont focus on presrafr look at his life and current skill set. He doesn't have move.
Huh?

He spent one year at UK and didn't get on campus until August. He improved drastically from Game 1 until he was injured.

There's no reason to believe he doesn't have a great work ethic.

Also, I guess Drummond didn't have a work ethic either? He had the body and natural talent at UConn, but zero post moves and zero jumpshot.

He's looking pretty good in the league, though.

[IGOTGAME]

Young Olajuwon said GET THAT WEAK STUFF OUTTA HERE
Still had more moves than Noel. This guy can bare make a jumphook. Hakeem had go moves in both directions as a young buck. Noel has nothing on the block. Whoever has this pick should trade it

[IGOTGAME]

Huh?

He spent one year at UK and didn't get on campus until August. He improved drastically from Game 1 until he was injured.

There's no reason to believe he doesn't have a great work ethic.

Also, I guess Drummond didn't have a work ethic either? He had the body and natural talent at UConn, but zero post moves and zero jumpshot.

He's looking pretty good in the league, though.
Actually Drummond showed a work ethic in high school he was just poorly coached. Check my predictions on bigs in previous posts. I called Drummond. Difference is Drummond had moves that he couldn't finish because necer learned the fundamentals behind. He skipped steps. But Noel has nothing. Gains during a season are more talent than work ethic usually. This is because you have a coach running practices and calling workouts for you. If he had an insane work ethic he would have something more to show for it by now.

Its the same silly shit iwas callimg out fice years ago when people were saying Zbo had no work ethic. If Noel a great work ethic he would be a lot better than he currently is. Ev en before the knee he would have been a weak pick at 1.

What do you actually think he is going to be in the NBA? Best case a 6'10 Tyson Chandler?

[Scoooter]

He shouldn't try to gain weight just to please scouts. "Bulking up" rarely works to plan, and a lot of guys who try it end up regretting it and trying to shed weight a season or two later. Whatever his body is naturally comfortable at will be fine. Bill Russel was rail thin and he held his own in the paint against Wilt Chamberlain for a generation.

[dbk123]

He shouldn't try to gain weight just to please scouts. "Bulking up" rarely works to plan, and a lot of guys who try it end up regretting it and trying to shed weight a season or two later. Whatever his body is naturally comfortable at will be fine. Bill Russel was rail thin and he held his own in the paint against Wilt Chamberlain for a generation.
if he doesnt bulk up he'll get raped in the league

[chips93]

Actually Drummond showed a work ethic in high school he was just poorly coached. Check my predictions on bigs in previous posts. I called Drummond. Difference is Drummond had moves that he couldn't finish because necer learned the fundamentals behind. He skipped steps. But Noel has nothing. Gains during a season are more talent than work ethic usually. This is because you have a coach running practices and calling workouts for you. If he had an insane work ethic he would have something more to show for it by now.

drummond was very raw in HS, couldnt hit freethrows, and just got by on being huge, and a freak athlete. he had no moves. who said drummond had a great work ethic in HS?

[Burgz V2]

Still had more moves than Noel. This guy can bare make a jumphook. Hakeem had go moves in both directions as a young buck. Noel has nothing on the block. Whoever has this pick should trade it

By Noel's age, Olajuwon had only been playing basketball for 3 years.

Olajuwon learned those moves because he used to workout with Moses Malone at the University of Houston. I don't think it's fair to knock Noel because of that at this point in his development.

[PleezeBelieve]

Drummond will be 320 pounds within four years

[Carbine]

It's not so much about his current weight, it's what he projects to.

He's thin. Narrow shoulders and a tiny torso. Those things don't just grow out, they are what they are. He has that Prince, Durant type frame. If he's lucky he will fill out like Bosh has or Garnett has.

Pair that with poor variety of basketball skills and it's a scary proposition taking him first. Garnett was unique because he had guard type skills. He could shoot, turn around jumper, dribble, pass.... he was a basketball player, not just an athlete.

He should be a great shot blocker and pick n roll defender though. You can easily see that in his game already.

[dbk123]

Drummond will be 320 pounds within four years
just like how you said kyrie would be a bust? :roll:

[PleezeBelieve]

It's not so much about his current weight, it's what he projects to.

He's thin. Narrow shoulders and a tiny torso. Those things don't just grow out, they are what they are. He has that Prince, Durant type frame. If he's lucky he will fill out like Bosh has or Garnett has.

Pair that with poor variety of basketball skills and it's a scary proposition taking him first. Garnett was unique because he had guard type skills. He could shoot, turn around jumper, dribble, pass.... he was a basketball player, not just an athlete.

He should be a great shot blocker and pick n roll defender though. You can easily see that in his game already.
What are talking about a scary proposition? He plays stronger than his frame leads you to believe. Watch some game film and you'll see this. He has skinny legs but his torso is rangy and lean. Plays with a good base.

On offense the guy has touch and plays well above the rim. He has a 9'2 standing reach with elite explosiveness and basketball IQ.

You sound like a fool Noel will be a better player than Anthony Davis at their peak. He has shutdown level defensive capabilities.

[G-train]

It's not so much about his current weight, it's what he projects to.

He's thin. Narrow shoulders and a tiny torso. Those things don't just grow out, they are what they are. He has that Prince, Durant type frame. If he's lucky he will fill out like Bosh has or Garnett has.

Pair that with poor variety of basketball skills and it's a scary proposition taking him first. Garnett was unique because he had guard type skills. He could shoot, turn around jumper, dribble, pass.... he was a basketball player, not just an athlete.

He should be a great shot blocker and pick n roll defender though. You can easily see that in his game already.

I'd say he has Chandler potential in terms of build.

[Carbine]

It's a scary proposition because he's the presumed #1 pick. You're expected to be a star with that pick, not someone who will be a specialist - which is what I think could easily happen.

Anthony Davis is a far superior prospect coming out of college and will be a better pro going forward, I think. I see developed skills, legit skills, with Davis to go along with great athletic and defensive ability.

[chips93]

It's a scary proposition because he's the presumed #1 pick. You're expected to be a star with that pick, not someone who will be a specialist - which is what I think could easily happen.

the cavs arent expecting him to be a star though. kyrie and dion are/will be the big time scorers that the team needs, if noel becomes a good offensive player, thats just gravy.

if he gets some pressure for not being a 'star' i dont think it will have come from people within the cavs organisation, or from sane cavaliers fans.

[PleezeBelieve]

It's a scary proposition because he's the presumed #1 pick. You're expected to be a star with that pick, not someone who will be a specialist - which is what I think could easily happen.

Anthony Davis is a far superior prospect coming out of college and will be a better pro going forward, I think. I see developed skills, legit skills, with Davis to go along with great athletic and defensive ability.
Who said he's a specialist??

He's a projected 16 ppg 12 rpg 3 apg 3.5 bpg 2 spg 55% 70% player

That's a franchise center.

[PleezeBelieve]

This guy will certainly be a 'star'. He's a future all star player. He will be the most important player on the Cavs within 5 years. The type of player who will make the difference between being a simple playoff team and one having championship aspirations.

[Carbine]

Noel might have it the easiest of any #1 pick ever. Dude gets drafted and the fans of the team don't expect him to be a star.

Trade the pick if that's the case.

[Carbine]

Who said he's a specialist??

He's a projected 16 ppg 12 rpg 3 apg 3.5 bpg 2 spg 55% 70% player

That's a franchise center.

I said he COULD be a specialist, as in....that's all he might turn out to be. Maybe he puts on 30 pounds of weight without sacrificing athletic ability, develops his jumper like Serge did, develops a triple threat, develops a post game.... lot of what ifs, but it could happen. Just like he COULD turn out to be a specialist.

[chips93]

Noel might have it the easiest of any #1 pick ever. Dude gets drafted and the fans of the team don't expect him to be a star.

Trade the pick if that's the case.

the cavs arent the only team that is aware that this is a weak draft.

nobody is gonna give us a star to get the number 1 pick.

[RedBlackAttack]

the cavs arent the only team that is aware that this is a weak draft.

nobody is gonna give us a star to get the number 1 pick.
I don't think this is a weak draft. I remember these same exact conversations in 2011. There were A LOT of people saying Kyrie would be nothing more than a solid starter and that he wouldn't have gone in the Top 10 in the previous year's draft.

I heard people saying that was the worst draft since 2000 and maybe even worse. Go back and take a look at it... Actually, it was a very good draft. I see the same thing this year.

This 'weak draft' notion has snowballed out of control and I don't even think people are really even studying the prospects anymore... They're just repeating what they heard some other guys say.

Maybe I should bump some threads made about Kyrie/2011 draft? People need to realize, these threads don't disappear after the draft is over. To be this certain of the way things are going to play out, I hope those who have spent time ripping these guys at the top of this draft know their sh!t.

Bookmarked.

[Lebron23]

Good decision by the kid. Blake Griffin also missed an entire season.

[RedBlackAttack]

NBC Sports:

[QUOTE]Report: Cavaliers have Nerlens Noel on top of draft board
Kurt Helin
May 31, 2013, 5:05 PM EDT

This news really shouldn

[jcsrplumply]

Good decision by the kid. Blake Griffin also missed an entire season.

So... are you back on the Cavs bandwagon?

[Lebron23]

So... are you back on the Cavs bandwagon?


Hell No.

[jcsrplumply]

Hell No.
Okay.. just checking.

[secund2nun]

Cleveland should take him, trade Andy for some draft picks, tank, get another top pick in next year's loaded draft (if they are lucky somehow get Wiggins) and then go after Lebron in free agency.

You don't say no to a center prospect like Noel. The guy has some real potential. He is a very good defender and will get better as he gains weight. He is very young yet did great at UK. He is a elite shot blocker and good rebounder. He is very athletic and will eventually develop a decent offensive game. I can see him in his prime becoming a Joakim Noah type player.

[maybeshewill13]

Cleveland should take him, trade Andy for some draft picks, tank, get another top pick in next year's loaded draft (if they are lucky somehow get Wiggins) and then go after Lebron in free agency.

You don't say no to a center prospect like Noel. The guy has some real potential. He is a very good defender and will get better as he gains weight. He is very young yet did great at UK. He is a elite shot blocker and good rebounder. He is very athletic and will eventually develop a decent offensive game. I can see him in his prime becoming a Joakim Noah type player.
Varejao to OKC :applause:

[RedBlackAttack]

In the Cleveland Plain Dealer today:


Nerlens Noel working overtime to regain health: NBA Draft Preview

By Mary Schmitt Boyer, The Plain Dealer
Follow on Twitter
on June 01, 2013 at 5:47 PM, updated June 01, 2013 at 10:28 PM

http://imgick.cleveland.com/home/cleve-media/width620/img/plain-dealer/photo/2013/05/12853996-mmmain.jpg

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. -- Nerlens Noel is stretched out on a training table at the Champion Sports Medicine rehabilitation center, watching ESPN's Chris Broussard discussing his NBA future.

Noel, the former Kentucky center, is projected as the No. 1 pick in the draft despite the torn left knee ligament that landed him here after surgery by the renowned Dr. James Andrews 11 weeks ago.

"He may not be back until Christmas ... if at all," Broussard says of Noel's upcoming rookie season.

Noel, who is sipping a protein shake after putting in a hard two hours in his first session of the day, shakes his head.

"They don't know," he says, softly.

By they, he means anybody who isn't watching as many as six hours of rehab a day, at least six days a week at the facility Andrews recommended, with additional non-jumping shooting drills for at least an hour a day and twice that much on weekends. If the Cavaliers take the 19-year-old Noel with the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft on June 27, he wants to do everything he can to be ready to play as soon as possible, though that likely won't be until Christmas, as Broussard reported.

"I'm being careful with the process," Noel said while icing his knee during a break. "It just takes time to come back. Whenever I'm ready, I'll come back. I want to make sure I'll be able to contribute right away to whatever team I go to.

"I feel great. I'm moving well. There's obviously limitations to it. I'm just listening to Kevin and doing what I need to do so I can come back as strong as possible."

"Kevin" is associate clinical director Kevin Wilk, who is overseeing Noel's rehabilitation.

"He's ahead of schedule," Wilk said. "His motion is fantastic. His muscle is coming back. I think he's doing fantastic. I don't think he could be doing any better.

"He always wants to do more."

Noel typically arrives at the center about 10 a.m. every morning. Last Thursday, he was one of about 30 patients sitting or lying on training tables around the outside of a large room surrounding all the typical weight training equipment -- stationary bikes, weight machines, free weights, balls, bands. The walls are decorated with framed and signed jerseys of athletes who have been through here -- Peyton Manning, Chris Webber and Penny Hardaway back in the day.

Wearing a plain white T-shirt, black Adidas shorts with red trim and black and red Air Jordans, Noel checks his phone while getting treatment, then gets to work on a series of routines designed to restore his strength and agility.

He will do as many as 20 different exercises -- three sets of 10 repetitions each. There are basics such as leg presses, wall squats or lunges, then more complicated moves where he'll stand on a balance board or ball and try to bend forward on one leg or try to catch or pass a ball on one leg.

Wilk and athletic trainers Luke Miller and Kirk Kaps watch over Noel throughout this portion of his workout and then turn him over to Luke Wakefield, director of athletic performance, who works on additional strength training and core building. Wakefield has been making nutritional suggestions as well, and Noel has added six pounds to get to 212.

After four hours of strenuous work, Noel eats chicken wings and French fries on his lunch break. He can get away with it because he's burning so many calories. Ideally, his trainers would like to see him adding lean protein and more protein shakes to build muscle and add weight.

More exercises, more treatment, more stretching and more ice follow before Noel's day at the clinic ends about 4 p.m.

Then he fights the notorious rush-hour traffic on I-280 East and heads to the picturesque gym at Mountain Chapel United Methodist Church in nearby Vestavia Hills for another hour of on-court work with Mike Mennenga, an assistant coach at Canisius who has known Noel since before he started high school.

With the afternoon sunlight streaming onto the wooden parquet floor, and under the watchful eye of Kaps, Mennenga has Noel shooting from three feet to beyond the free-throw line for 45 minutes, concentrating on keeping his elbow close to his body and bending his wrist on his follow-through. Wearing a big brace on his left knee, Noel can't jump yet, but he can step straight in and then rise up onto his tiptoes for each shot.

He winds up about 6 p.m. Kaps wraps his left knee in ice and Noel heads out to dinner and a good night's sleep -- after watching Game 5 in the Eastern Conference Finals, of course.

Noel admits he has never worked this hard. He goes about his business quietly, but intently. There's not a lot of chitchat, though it's clear all involved enjoy each other's company. Wilk keeps things light, and Noel seems to appreciate it.

"You've got to enjoy doing this," Noel said. "That'll make it a lot more enjoyable."

Being this close to achieving a lifetime dream also helps him keep his focus all day, every day.

"Having love for the game and knowing how much you want to get back on the court really pushes you," Noel said.

Ranking the centers

In all likelihood, Nerlens Noel will be the first player taken in the 2013 NBA draft, whether the Cavaliers keep the pick or trade it. This is one of the deepest positions in this year's draft class, and one the Cavs will be interested in no matter where they pick.

More size is always better, whether at center or power forward, especially with Anderson Varejao's injury history and Marreese Speights likely opting out of his contract.

1. Kentucky's Nerlens Noel (6-11 3/4, 212): Averaged 10.5 points and 9.5 rebounds, plus 4.4 blocks, in 24 games for the Wildcats, who were 21-12 overall, 4-5 after he got hurt. Long and athletic with a 7-4 wingspan, figures to be a defensive force once he adds weight and strength. Even though torn ligament in his left knee will keep him out until Christmas, most teams seem to think he's worth the wait.

2. Maryland's Alex Len (7-1, 255): Averaged 11.9 points and 7.8 rebounds, plus two blocks, in 22 games for the Terrapins, who finished the season 17-15. His size is what intrigues scouts the most, since he is long and mobile, a good athlete who runs the floor well and finishes around the basket. He needs to cut down on his turnovers and improve his 59 percent free-throw shooting.

3. Pittsburgh's Steven Adams (7-0, 255): Averaged 7.2 points and 6.3 rebounds, plus two blocks, in 33 games for the Panthers, who finished the season 24-9. Although DraftExpress.com calls him ''a late bloomer with limited basketball experience'' because he has only been playing six or seven years, he does have size and athleticism but will need a lot of work.

4. Duke's Mason Plumlee (7-0 1/2, 238): Averaged 17.1 points and 10 rebounds as the Blue Devils finished 30-6. Tested bigger and more athletic during the combine in Chicago, which has helped boost his stock. Mobile and athletic and can put the ball on the floor. Needs to add weight and strength.

5. Gonzaga's Kelly Olynyk (7-0, 234): Averaged 17.8 points and 7.3 rebounds, plus a block, in 32 games for the Bulldogs, who finished the season 32-3 after being upset in third round of the NCAA tournament. The big Canadian is polished offensively and can score with his back to the basket or hit a 3-pointer. Not nearly as strong playing defense or blocking shots and tested poorly in the athletic portion of the recent combine.

http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2013/06/nerlens_noel_working_overtime.html#incart_river