Welcome to the age of the superstorm

[rezznor]

http://io9.com/welcome-to-the-age-of-the-superstorm-1460773814


Welcome to the Age of the Superstorm

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/195px4hdiz4wgjpg/ku-bigpic.jpg


Almost exactly one year after Hurricane Sandy hit the U.S. eastern seaboard, the strongest typhoon in recorded history has slammed into the Philippines. That's two superstorms in two years. It's the new normal, folks — and climate change is likely to blame.

"Super Typhoon" Haiyan swept through the Philippines last night. Officials haven't been able to make contact with many of the affected areas, so the extent of the damage, or how many people have been injured or killed, is still not clear. But it's looking ugly.



What is known, however, is that this is the strongest cyclone of the year — and quite possibly of all time. It's the most powerful tropical typhoon to have ever reached land — and the numbers are absolutely staggering. According to the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Haiyan produced sustained winds of 167 mph (269 km/h) with gusts reaching 201 mph (324 km/h).

The previous record belonged to Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph (305 km/h) winds. Sandy, with its massive 1,100 mile (1,800 km) sprawl, sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).

In addition to its power, Haiyan was remarkable in that the walls of the storm that rotate around the eye were not replaced as it moved. This typically occurs in typhoons, which has the affect of weakening wind speed.

As for the link to climate change, experts theorize that a plentiful supply of typhoon-fueling warm ocean waters, low atmospheric wind shear, and generous amounts of warm and moist air surrounding these storms are to blame. As Simon Redferm recently noted,

The recent IPCC report on climate change highlighted the risks associated with changes in the patterns and frequency of extreme weather events. While individual storms such as Haiyan cannot be directly attributed to such changes, the statistics of such storms will help build a picture of how climate change is affecting the planet. Climatologists are keen to develop models that provide accurate risk factors for tropical cyclones.

As the planet and particularly the oceans heat, simple physics indicates that the energy stored is likely to increase the intensity and frequency of devastating storms like Haiyan, at great cost to coastal communities.


IPCC Report: Humans are the ‘dominant cause’ of global warming

Our climate is changing, no doubt about it. The festering controversy we're in has been about whether humans have anything to do with it.
And indeed, some government authorities say climate change is increasing the ferocity and frequency of typhoons, though some scientists say it's premature to reach this conclusion.

What's clearer, however, is that sea level rise from global warming escalates the risk posed by storm surges across the globe — including low-lying areas of the Philippines.

Just ask Americans living along the East coast.

[Hotlantadude81]

Where are all of these awful hurricanes that were going to start hitting the US after Katrina? It seems like they name any storm with 30MPH winds just so they can get through the list of names every year now.

I'm not saying there is no GW... But everyone is always trying to push the panic button. It gets old.

[rezznor]

Where are all of these awful hurricanes that were going to start hitting the US after Katrina? It seems like they name any storm with 30MPH winds just so they can get through the list of names every year now.

I'm not saying there is no GW... But everyone is always trying to push the panic button. It gets old.


2 monster storms within a year of each other....

[Hotlantadude81]

2 monster storms within a year of each other....

There is going to be some storms every year. A category 5 has not even struck the US since Andrew in 1992.

We basically got nothing this hurricane season.

[East_Stone_Ya]

it looks scary

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/11/8/1383896984900/Super-Typhoon-Haiyan-hits-006.jpg


Image from Japan Meteorological Agency's MTSAT of Haiyan over the Leyte Gulf.

[niko]

I've been on this earth 41 years. I've seen four tornados (actually hitting, not warnings), two earthquakes and three major hurricanes living in Brooklyn. The three strongest tornados, one earthquake (the bigger one) and two of the major hurricanes are in the last few years. Yes, everything always can be coincidental but it seems the huge natural disasters are increasing in size and frequency. Look at Japan two years ago.

[Hotlantadude81]

I've been on this earth 41 years. I've seen four tornados (actually hitting, not warnings), two earthquakes and three major hurricanes living in Brooklyn. The three strongest tornados, one earthquake (the bigger one) and two of the major hurricanes are in the last few years. Yes, everything always can be coincidental but it seems the huge natural disasters are increasing in size and frequency. Look at Japan two years ago.

Living here in GA... In terms of Tornadoes and Hurricanes it has never been more quiet in my lifetime.

[bagelred]

Global warming? :facepalm

It's clearly just Jesus angry at gays. If we pray the gay away, it will stop.

[rezznor]

Living here in GA... In terms of Tornadoes and Hurricanes it has never been more quiet in my lifetime.
:facepalm

b/c georgia = the rest of the world

[fiddy]

LMAO global warming http://www.examiner.com/article/arctic-ice-cap-increases-60-one-year-so-is-an-ice-age-now-coming

For once im happy that i live in eastern europe, no super quakes, no superstorms

[Dresta]

I've been on this earth 41 years. I've seen four tornados (actually hitting, not warnings), two earthquakes and three major hurricanes living in Brooklyn. The three strongest tornados, one earthquake (the bigger one) and two of the major hurricanes are in the last few years. Yes, everything always can be coincidental but it seems the huge natural disasters are increasing in size and frequency. Look at Japan two years ago.
:roll:

Nice sample size.

And earthquakes are caused by tectonic plate shifts, so why on earth would they be increasing in 'size and frequency'?

And after a quick search:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/increase_in_earthquakes.php

Looks like you're wrong.

[-p.tiddy-]

:roll:

Nice sample size.

And earthquakes are caused by tectonic plate shifts, so why on earth would they be increasing in 'size and frequency'?

And after a quick search:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/increase_in_earthquakes.php

Looks like you're wrong.
wow, that was an interesting read actually

doing a quick search:
https://www.google.com/#q=ice+caps+growing&safe=off

looks to be true


man, I really bought into the whole Al Gore ice cap thing too...

[Dresta]

wow, that was an interesting read actually

doing a quick search:
https://www.google.com/#q=ice+caps+growing&safe=off

looks to be true


man, I really bought into the whole Al Gore ice cap thing too...
And see here:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/05/global-warming-theory-has-failed-all-tests-so-alarmists-return-to-the-97-consensus-hoax/

Whatever the validity of these people's arguments, it is pretty obvious that their science is dogmatic and uncompromising, and that whatever change happens is later incorporated into their theories and used to prove their validity. Yet when one questions even tentatively their dogmatic beliefs, one is screamed at with accusations of being a 'denialist.'

I cannot bring myself to believe hypotheses postulated by such dogmatists.

[OldSkoolball#52]

I've been on this earth 41 years. I've seen four tornados (actually hitting, not warnings), two earthquakes and three major hurricanes living in Brooklyn. The three strongest tornados, one earthquake (the bigger one) and two of the major hurricanes are in the last few years. Yes, everything always can be coincidental but it seems the huge natural disasters are increasing in size and frequency. Look at Japan two years ago.


:applause:


And the winner, for Dumbest Post of the Year, Science Topics is:


"niko, for his post "Ive lived through two earthquakes and some hurricanes. This shit is for real"


:applause: :applause: :applause: :applause:

[bdreason]

I love when people post blogs and refer to them as facts. :oldlol:

[OldSkoolball#52]

And see here:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/05/global-warming-theory-has-failed-all-tests-so-alarmists-return-to-the-97-consensus-hoax/

Whatever the validity of these people's arguments, it is pretty obvious that their science is dogmatic and uncompromising, and that whatever change happens is later incorporated into their theories and used to prove their validity. Yet when one questions even tentatively their dogmatic beliefs, one is screamed at with accusations of being a 'denialist.'

I cannot bring myself to believe hypotheses postulated by such dogmatists.


Yep.

The delicacy of planetary systems and environments definitely renders it possible, and even probable that the amount of CO2 civilization is now putting into the air every single day is going to change the climate in some way, to some degree. That doesnt mean our impact cant be happening simultaneously with a natural climate shitf to create the change. Its impossible to say right now to what degree humans are impacting the environment and it is impossible to blame any specific weather event on human generated global warming.


So even tho I support continuing to study this field, and trying to reduce greenhouse gas emmissions where and when we can - you still have to laugh at these kooks who run around screaming "ITS DECEMBER 5TH AND PITTSBURGH JUST HAD A 62 DEGREE DAY, AAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!!!! LOOK WHAT YOUVE DONE GEORGE BUSH!!!!!"

[DuMa]

on the west coast, we never have to worry about tornadoes or hurricanes/typhoons but we do have to worry about the big earthquake that is coming soon.

In the east coast, they worry about hurricanes but rarely earthquakes.

I feel bad for the southeast asia countries though. They are are just getting double fvcked with the earthquakes/tsunamis AND regular yearly occurences of the typhoon season.

[Dresta]

I love when people post blogs and refer to them as facts. :oldlol:
Nobody actually did that.

Though a blog can contain facts like anything else. From my experience you are more likely to get useful information from a blog than from a newspaper, as long as you know where to look, and how to critically evaluate things using your own faculties.

[KeylessEntry]

on the west coast, we never have to worry about tornadoes or hurricanes/typhoons but we do have to worry about the big earthquake that is coming soon.

In the east coast, they worry about hurricanes but rarely earthquakes.

I feel bad for the southeast asia countries though. They are are just getting double fvcked with the earthquakes/tsunamis AND regular yearly occurences of the typhoon season.

Hurricanes/Typhoons actually can hit the west coast, but its very rare

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Day_Storm_of_1962

[Blue&Orange]

dresta and oldskoolball = dumb and dumber :lol



















































And they don't know it :lol

[OldSkoolball#52]

^ Looks like someone still blames George Bush for his problems getting laid....

[Dresta]

dresta and oldskoolball = dumb and dumber :lol





And they don't know it :lol
Nice argument: real insightful and well laid out it is.

It's funny how in a thread where one person has postulated the coming of an age of 'superstorms' because there have been two big storms in 2 years, and another who has claimed that due to his experience with a handful of natural disasters, that they are therefore getting worse and more frequent (running completely contrary to the actual facts btw), you feel the need to mock 2 people who took up fairly ambivalent positions on the matter, simply because what they said runs contrary to your preconceived and ill-founded beliefs.

Feeling inferior much? Why the need to so desperately cling to things you have no evidence for, and little understanding of?

[Hotlantadude81]

:facepalm

b/c georgia = the rest of the world

You can facepalm all you want...

The bottomline is that hurricanes overall haven't been an issue the last few years. Not here in the US.

But panic! panic! panic! Even if you can't do anything about it!


People like you are not going to get me to start shaking in my shoes because of a few big storms.

[gigantes]

Welcome to the age of the superstorm
does that mean we're done with AQUARIUS?

[KeylessEntry]

:roll:

Nice sample size.

And earthquakes are caused by tectonic plate shifts, so why on earth would they be increasing in 'size and frequency'?

And after a quick search:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/increase_in_earthquakes.php

Looks like you're wrong.


I dont know if earthquakes are increasing in size, but they are certainly increasing in frequency in the US. Its believed that the increase in frequency is caused by human activities.

http://www.geek.com/science/man-made-earthquakes-are-becoming-a-real-problem-1576464/


The concept of a man-made earthquake seems like utter fantasy, the concoction of a Dr. Evil type super-villain. Aren’t earthquakes supposed to be caused by the movement of tectonic plates? It’s odd to imagine that humans could affect such features of the planet. For a long time, people resisted the very idea, but now the evidence is starting to pile up. We’ve seen an incredible spike in earthquake frequency in recent years, and scientists are finally starting to figure out why that is.

The US Geological Survey claims that the rate of earthquakes stronger than magnitude 3.0 in the central and eastern US is roughly five times what it used to be. From 2010 to 2012, that area experienced an average of 100 such earthquakes per year; from 1967 to 2000, the annual average was 21. That could be an aberration since the former number is averaged over so few years, but that’s just the beginning of the story.

It’s been known for a while that there is at least a correlation between certain waste disposal methods and increased numbers of small earthquakes — but actually we’ve been causing earthquakes for much longer than that. Particularly large dams can cause them by suddenly putting a lake’s worth of mass on top of a previously unencumbered bit of the Earth’s crust. Even conventional coal mining and oil extraction can do it, hollowing out formerly sturdy areas and honeycombing large areas with structural weaknesses.

Still, the practice of pumping things down into the earth seems to be much more damaging than the process of bringing other things back up. A new study has linked a series of small earthquakes near Snyder, Texas to the underground injection of CO2 gas. When injected far enough underground the gas will freeze into tiny cracks in the rock — it’s essentially the reverse of hydraulic fracturing.

[gigantes]

exactly, keyless. the past several decades we've been drilling all over the country, mainly for commercial and convenience reasons, removing substances or pumping other (radioactive) substances down there with little regard to plates and aquifers and water tables.


dresta, have you been sick or under stress this week, limiting your neural bandwidth? you and old skool have been shitting the bed for a week solid i'm becoming a little concerned. you guys are normally a couple of the more interesting posters here IMO. :(

[KeylessEntry]

exactly, keyless. the past several decades we've been drilling all over the country, mainly for commercial and convenience reasons, removing substances or pumping other (radioactive) substances down there with little regard to plates and aquifers and water tables.


dresta, have you been sick or under stress this week, limiting your neural bandwidth? you and old skool have been shitting the bed for a week solid i'm becoming a little concerned. you guys are normally a couple of the more interesting posters here IMO. :(

What?? Dresta and Old Skool are both garbage posters imo. Both guys talk down to everyone like they think they are too intelligent for the lowly ISH riff raff, in reality they are basically clones of Nick Young but with better spelling/grammar and more ad hominem.

[gigantes]

keyless, bro... everyone has their own path and reasons for being who they are. i like to think of it like this: every person i meet is a kind of teacher to me, whether they intended that or not.


dresta and old skool, and nick young and longhorn, have interesting / challenging ideas and move topics forward IMO.


in a way it's like this--
F-CK people who agree with me. i'm more interested in people who point out that i've been an idiot. so that i can learn something. as in, none of us are perfect or ever going to be perfect. so why not go for learning and smoove?

[KeylessEntry]

keyless, bro... everyone has their own path and reasons for being who they are. i like to think of it like this: every person i meet is a kind of teacher to me, whether they intended that or not.


dresta and old skool, and nick young and longhorn, have interesting / challenging ideas and move topics forward IMO.


in a way it's like this--
F-CK people who agree with me. i'm more interested in people who point out that i've been an idiot. so that i can learn something. as in, none of us are perfect or ever going to be perfect. so why not go for learning and smoove?


I think dudes like Dresta and Old Skool are far from educational. IMO, they are both completely hollow in terms of intellect, and they are both unpleasant to talk to. New and interesting points of view are great, I dont think either of those guys bring anything remotely new or interesting to the table.

I see dudes like J$, Primetime and Balla_status as the type of poster that you are describing here. I rarely agree with J$, Prime or Balla, but I love them as a posters because they are interesting (and they arent condescending assholes).

No doubt that everyone has their reasons for being who they are, no doubt that nobody is perfect, but that doesnt mean that every person is an educator with something valuable to add to the conversation.

edit: Old Skool is a straight up troll most of the time, look at his posts in this thread for example....what the hell is anybody supposed to learn from him?

[gigantes]

I think dudes like Dresta and Old Skool are far from educational. IMO, they are both completely hollow in terms of intellect, and they are both unpleasant to talk to. New and interesting points of view are great, I dont think either of those guys bring anything remotely new or interesting to the table.

I see dudes like J$, Primetime and Balla_status as the type of poster that you are describing here. I rarely agree with J$, Prime or Balla, but I love them as a posters because they are interesting (and they arent condescending assholes).

No doubt that everyone has their reasons for being who they are, no doubt that nobody is perfect, but that doesnt mean that every person is an educator with something valuable to add to the conversation.

edit: Old Skool is a straight up troll most of the time, look at his posts in this thread for example....what the hell is anybody supposed to learn from him?
okay... *honestly i'm sweating a bit*... i see what you're saying.

i understand what you're saying, but i can't share that belief.


my childhood was crazy... i had to figure almost everything out about life by myself... so guess i REALLY don't like putting other people down, basically because... who the f-ck am i to cast the stone?

i'm not a particularly happy person. and it's okay with me at this point. but i don't like seeing other people being put down for no good reason. as in... it felt like crap to me... i don't see the need for other bros to suffer it.

[KeylessEntry]

okay... *honestly i'm sweating a bit*... i see what you're saying.

i understand what you're saying, but i can't share that belief.


my childhood was crazy... i had to figure almost everything out about life by myself... so guess i REALLY don't like putting other people down, basically because... who the f-ck am i to cast the stone?

i'm not a particularly happy person. and it's okay with me at this point. but i don't like seeing other people being put down for no good reason. as in... it felt like crap to me... i don't see the need for other bros to suffer it.

I dont like to put other people down either, but when someone is constantly acting like a bully(dresta) or asshole(oldskool), I think thats a pretty good reason.

[OldSkoolball#52]

I think dudes like Dresta and Old Skool are far from educational. IMO, they are both completely hollow in terms of intellect, and they are both unpleasant to talk to. New and interesting points of view are great, I dont think either of those guys bring anything remotely new or interesting to the table.

I see dudes like J$, Primetime and Balla_status as the type of poster that you are describing here. I rarely agree with J$, Prime or Balla, but I love them as a posters because they are interesting (and they arent condescending assholes).

No doubt that everyone has their reasons for being who they are, no doubt that nobody is perfect, but that doesnt mean that every person is an educator with something valuable to add to the conversation.

edit: Old Skool is a straight up troll most of the time, look at his posts in this thread for example....what the hell is anybody supposed to learn from him?


:roll: @ this womans hormones.

Throws a tantrum everytime he gets exposed as a phony hypocrite when he spouts off the silly and illogical john stewart talking points the rest of us grew out of by 17 years old. Hes like a fifteen year old who has the "epiphany" that the world isnt always fair, and starts sayin to everyone "Hey, wait a minute. Why doesnt the government just like, make everything fair man??? Why isnt the government giving more money out!?? Holy shit, I just figured out the world you guys!!! If the government just gives everyone equal money stuff then we're all gonna get along!!!"


Hes angry because every time he tries to be smart I literally shoot his paper airplane down with a rocket launcher and make him look stupid, and it makes him dizzy with humiliation.


But the funniest part is when he cries like a woman about it.

[Dresta]

exactly, keyless. the past several decades we've been drilling all over the country, mainly for commercial and convenience reasons, removing substances or pumping other (radioactive) substances down there with little regard to plates and aquifers and water tables.


dresta, have you been sick or under stress this week, limiting your neural bandwidth? you and old skool have been shitting the bed for a week solid i'm becoming a little concerned. you guys are normally a couple of the more interesting posters here IMO. :(
I've barely posted this past week because i've been travelling (in San Diego and LA).

Spent some time in downtown LA at night speaking to some of the homeless there. Poor buggers can't even get themselves some cigarettes because do-gooders are intent on doing everyone a favour by taxing and disparaging things that actually make people's lives a little more bearable. Just left me feeling pretty pissed off with smarmy 'liberal' bellends who are so intent on helping everyone through the state, but who wouldn't get out of their cars to actually help somebody in person. (when i try to think of these people i just get the image of Bill Maher and his idiotic audience in my head :oldlol: )


I dont know if earthquakes are increasing in size, but they are certainly increasing in frequency in the US. Its believed that the increase in frequency is caused by human activities.

http://www.geek.com/science/man-made-earthquakes-are-becoming-a-real-problem-1576464/Yeah... except that didn't contradict anything i said. Regardless, these 'earthquakes' are both minor (vast majority can not even be felt) and they are not caused by tectonic plate shifts: so they really need to be placed in a different category to serious and dangerous earthquakes (which these are not). I mean, 3.0 on the richter scale? Many Americans make more vibrations than that getting out of bed in the morning.


What?? Dresta and Old Skool are both garbage posters imo. Both guys talk down to everyone like they think they are too intelligent for the lowly ISH riff raff, in reality they are basically clones of Nick Young but with better spelling/grammar and more ad hominem.

I don't talk down to everyone, only those who espouse what I regard as stupid opinions. Or who can't write sentences that make sense, or who prove themselves to be incapable of reading. It isn't my fault that there's a lot of riff raff on this site; if there weren't, then i would likely be less contemptuous. It isn't as if i don't regard some of the people on here to have opinions that are interesting and worthwhile, it is just that they are few, and the fools are many (but isn't this always so?).

I would say something about the posts you make and what i think of them, but nothing you've said comes to mind - your posts have not made any impression on me whatsoever.

[KeylessEntry]

:oldlol:

Thanks for proving my point fellas

[OldSkoolball#52]

I dont like to put other people down either, but when someone is constantly acting like a bully(dresta) or asshole(oldskool), I think thats a pretty good reason.



Ahahahahahahaha :lol :lol :oldlol: :banana: :lol :cry: :roll:



FHAGGOT!

[KeylessEntry]

Yeah... except that didn't contradict anything i said. Regardless, these 'earthquakes' are both minor (vast majority can not even be felt) and they are not caused by tectonic plate shifts: so they really need to be placed in a different category to serious and dangerous earthquakes (which these are not). I mean, 3.0 on the richter scale? Many Americans make more vibrations than that getting out of bed in the morning.

Maybe you should read the article a little more carefully mr intellectual.


The US Geological Survey claims that the rate of earthquakes stronger than magnitude 3.0 in the central and eastern US is roughly five times what it used to be. From 2010 to 2012, that area experienced an average of 100 such earthquakes per year; from 1967 to 2000, the annual average was 21. That could be an aberration since the former number is averaged over so few years, but that’s just the beginning of the story.

Even larger earthquakes have been linked to gas injection as well, like a 4.4 magnitude quake in 2011. Past research has uncovered a more general correlation between many kinds of injection storage (including, importantly, the fluid runoff from the fracking process).

[gigantes]

I've barely posted this past week because i've been travelling (in San Diego and LA).

Spent some time in downtown LA at night speaking to some of the homeless there. Poor buggers can't even get themselves some cigarettes because do-gooders are intent on doing everyone a favour by taxing and disparaging things that actually make people's lives a little more bearable. Just left me feeling pretty pissed off with smarmy 'liberal' bellends who are so intent on helping everyone through the state, but who wouldn't get out of their cars to actually help somebody in person. (when i try to think of these people i just get the image of Bill Maher and his idiotic audience in my head :oldlol: )
i take the point. we have an interesting conflict going, and i apologise if i was being rude.

if i could say just one thing, though-- i really don't regard my own opinion very highly. i mean, i love TED, sciencedaily.com and other stuff... descriptions of the way reality is. kind of my highest regard. but much of it is over my head.

i apologise if i was rude... that's all. but it seems that you guys have a diplomacy to form if you care to offer some mutual respect.

[Dresta]

Maybe you should read the article a little more carefully mr intellectual.

Erm.. i did read it. It means that anything that ticks past 3.0 is counted (show me where i said or implied that only ratings of exactly 3 were measured - maybe you should read more carefully?). My point was that most of the readings will be at the low-end of the scale, so why not only count ones over say 5? Oh yeh: because there would be hardly anything to talk about.

You'll be getting me on the fact that the magnitude of fat people getting out of bed isn't really more than 3.0 next. Geeez... way to be pedantic and childish.

[KeylessEntry]

Erm.. i did read it. It means that anything that ticks past 3.0 is counted (show me where i said or implied that only ratings of exactly 3 were measured - maybe you should read more carefully?). My point was that most of the readings will be at the low-end of the scale, so why not only count ones over say 5? Oh yeh: because there would be hardly anything to talk about.

You'll be getting me on the fact that the magnitude of fat people getting out of bed isn't really more than 3.0 next. Geeez... way to be pedantic and childish.

Yeah my bad, I misread your post as "below" 3.0 on the richter scale.

I am an idiot, I have no problem admitting that. :oldlol:

[KevinNYC]

The bottomline is that hurricanes overall haven't been an issue the last few years. Not here in the US.


Have you been in a long coma?


Hurricane Sandy (unofficially known as "Superstorm Sandy") was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, as well as the second-costliest hurricane in United States history. Classified as the eighteenth named storm, tenth hurricane and second major hurricane of the year, Sandy was a Category 3 storm at its peak intensity when it made landfall in Cuba. While it was a Category 2 storm off the coast of the Northeastern United States, the storm became the largest Atlantic hurricane on record (as measured by diameter, with winds spanning 1,100 miles (1,800 km)).Estimates as of June 2013 assess damage to have been over $68 billion (2013 USD), a total surpassed only by Hurricane Katrina. At least 286 people were killed along the path of the storm in seven countries.

The other thing about Sandy that was unusual was it a late October storm, a strong hurricane forming that late into fall is pretty darn rare. I don't know about the Pacific, but I bet a strong November typhoon is pretty rare too.

[KevinNYC]

The year before Sandy Vermont (!) was trashed by Hurricane Irene.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/08/30/irene.vermont/t1larg.vermont.bridge.ireport.jpg

http://photo.accuweather.com/photogallery/2007/7/500/35042b4d4.jpg

http://fstop.onthis.net/files/2011/08/FloodingSharonVTIreneSmall.jpg

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/31/us/31floods_span/31floods_span-articleLarge.jpg

http://latimesphoto.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/hurricane120.jpg

[senelcoolidge]

Global warming:lol . We are entering an ice age. Also look out for solar flares.

[fiddy]

Global warming:lol . We are entering an ice age. Also look out for solar flares.
and comet Ison

[chips93]

I've been on this earth 41 years. I've seen four tornados (actually hitting, not warnings), two earthquakes and three major hurricanes living in Brooklyn. The three strongest tornados, one earthquake (the bigger one) and two of the major hurricanes are in the last few years. Yes, everything always can be coincidental but it seems the huge natural disasters are increasing in size and frequency. Look at Japan two years ago.

that was caused by an earthquake, its unrelated to climate change.

[outbreak]

The weather has changed, you can't deny that. Don't know how big of an effect it has had yet though but if it continues I can imagine in 100 years it'll change a lot.

Growing up here I know that summers are a lot hotter than they used to be, as a kid anything over 30 degrees was considered hot and now we hit 40 degrees and have a lot of days in the high 30s which I don't remember happening. We've also had some big storms and hail in the last few years which have been uncommon, my sisters car got smashed up by hail and my mates house had half his windows broken from it. Unrelated but we've also had 3-4 earthquakes in the last few years, very minor but I cannot recall having a single earthquake until about 4 years ago.

[Dresta]

i take the point. we have an interesting conflict going, and i apologise if i was being rude.

if i could say just one thing, though-- i really don't regard my own opinion very highly. i mean, i love TED, sciencedaily.com and other stuff... descriptions of the way reality is. kind of my highest regard. but much of it is over my head.

i apologise if i was rude... that's all. but it seems that you guys have a diplomacy to form if you care to offer some mutual respect.
My problem is that someone with my opinions is never treated with respect by the vast majority of people who oppose them. I at least grant my opponents the motive of good (albeit misguided) intentions. But it is impossible to have the opinions i have without many regarding you as a kind of diseased soul, completely lacking in empathy and compassion, perhaps in the pocket of some corporate body, and desiring to shit all over the poor and underprivileged day and night.

When, in fact, the only difference between me and these people is that we have different means to the same end, and i don't believe their's works, or has ever worked. I don't think a country as vast as the United States can ever be successful in the long term with a centralised government administering everything. It is too complex, too impersonal, and results in a country of isolated individuals who are overwhelmed by the enormity of their country.

This is why the federal government should be as small as possible (not the only reason why either), while also being strong enough to provide security, negotiate treaties, and keep the states unified etc. The aim being to allow most things to take place on a local level, rather than a national one. Local institutions both moderate the despotism of the majority and foster a taste for liberty among people, teaching them the art of being free. It gives people a better understanding of politics by forcing them to think about it, and it teaches individuals how to associate with others.

But instead everything is reduced to the simplistic 'let the federal government take care of it' - the abstract of the federal gvmt. which few have a personal connection with, or a good understanding of, and which is incredibly inefficient and wasteful, as well as corrupted to its core. How could this ever work?

[rufuspaul]

There is going to be some storms every year. A category 5 has not even struck the US since Andrew in 1992.

We basically got nothing this hurricane season.


Same here in NC. No hurricanes and no tornados that did that much damage. As a kid both were a frequent occurrence.

Every now and then the right conditions combine to create the "perfect storm". This has happened throughout history. What makes the Philippines storm so tragic has as much to do with the poverty and infrastructure there as it does the actual power of the storm, which was immense.

Storm after storm could hit Florida, the Gulf, and the Southeast and people don't blink an eye. But if one slips up the coast like Sandy, OMG the world is coming to an end! Something has to be done about this!

[JEFFERSON MONEY]

Keyless, you seem like a guy who takes T.R.U.T.H seriously.

Have you ever thought about being a father or mentor to young people and championing the following virtues? There are scatterbrained and sloppy thinkers out there who could use an old chap to refine their raw mental metals into icy blades and steel traps.

http://www.criticalthinking.org/pages/valuable-intellectual-traits/528



Intellectual Humility: Having a consciousness of the limits of one's knowledge, including a sensitivity to circumstances in which one's native egocentrism is likely to function self-deceptively; sensitivity to bias, prejudice and limitations of one's viewpoint. Intellectual humility depends on recognizing that one should not claim more than one actually knows. It does not imply spinelessness or submissiveness. It implies the lack of intellectual pretentiousness, boastfulness, or conceit, combined with insight into the logical foundations, or lack of such foundations, of one's beliefs.


Intellectual Courage: Having a consciousness of the need to face and fairly address ideas, beliefs or viewpoints toward which we have strong negative emotions and to which we have not given a serious hearing. This courage is connected with the recognition that ideas considered dangerous or absurd are sometimes rationally justified (in whole or in part) and that conclusions and beliefs inculcated in us are sometimes false or misleading. To determine for ourselves which is which, we must not passively and uncritically "accept" what we have "learned." Intellectual courage comes into play here, because inevitably we will come to see some truth in some ideas considered dangerous and absurd, and distortion or falsity in some ideas strongly held in our social group. We need courage to be true to our own thinking in such circumstances. The penalties for non-conformity can be severe.


Intellectual Empathy: Having a consciousness of the need to imaginatively put oneself in the place of others in order to genuinely understand them, which requires the consciousness of our egocentric tendency to identify truth with our immediate perceptions of long-standing thought or belief. This trait correlates with the ability to reconstruct accurately the viewpoints and reasoning of others and to reason from premises, assumptions, and ideas other than our own. This trait also correlates with the willingness to remember occasions when we were wrong in the past despite an intense conviction that we were right, and with the ability to imagine our being similarly deceived in a case-at-hand.


Intellectual Integrity: Recognition of the need to be true to one's own thinking; to be consistent in the intellectual standards one applies; to hold one's self to the same rigorous standards of evidence and proof to which one holds one's antagonists; to practice what one advocates for others; and to honestly admit discrepancies and inconsistencies in one's own thought and action.


Intellectual Perseverance: Having a consciousness of the need to use intellectual insights and truths in spite of difficulties, obstacles, and frustrations; firm adherence to rational principles despite the irrational opposition of others; a sense of the need to struggle with confusion and unsettled questions over an extended period of time to achieve deeper understanding or insight.


Faith In Reason: Confidence that, in the long run, one's own higher interests and those of humankind at large will be best served by giving the freest play to reason, by encouraging people to come to their own conclusions by developing their own rational faculties; faith that, with proper encouragement and cultivation, people can learn to think for themselves, to form rational viewpoints, draw reasonable conclusions, think coherently and logically, persuade each other by reason and become reasonable persons, despite the deep-seated obstacles in the native character of the human mind and in society as we know it.


Fairmindedness: Having a consciousness of the need to treat all viewpoints alike, without reference to one's own feelings or vested interests, or the feelings or vested interests of one's friends, community or nation; implies adherence to intellectual standards without reference to one's own advantage or the advantage of one's group.

[bagelred]

All this nonsense talk about Global Warming is making Jesus very angry, and that's why Jesus is terrorizing us with these superstorms.

[KevinNYC]

My problem is that someone with my opinions is never treated with respect by the vast majority of people who oppose them. I at least grant my opponents the motive of good (albeit misguided) intentions. But it is impossible to have the opinions i have without many regarding you as a kind of diseased soul, completely lacking in empathy and compassion, perhaps in the pocket of some corporate body, and desiring to shit all over the poor and underprivileged day and night.

When, in fact, the only difference between me and these people is that we have different means to the same end, and i don't believe their's works, or has ever worked. I don't think a country as vast as the United States can ever be successful in the long term with a centralised government administering everything. It is too complex, too impersonal, and results in a country of isolated individuals who are overwhelmed by the enormity of their country.

This is why the federal government should be as small as possible (not the only reason why either), while also being strong enough to provide security, negotiate treaties, and keep the states unified etc. The aim being to allow most things to take place on a local level, rather than a national one. Local institutions both moderate the despotism of the majority and foster a taste for liberty among people, teaching them the art of being free. It gives people a better understanding of politics by forcing them to think about it, and it teaches individuals how to associate with others.

But instead everything is reduced to the simplistic 'let the federal government take care of it' - the abstract of the federal gvmt. which few have a personal connection with, or a good understanding of, and which is incredibly inefficient and wasteful, as well as corrupted to its core. How could this ever work?

That bolded part is an amazing statement given the huge chunks of of US history that prove it false.

[Dresta]

That bolded part is an amazing statement given the huge chunks of of US history that prove it false.
*sigh* don't bother to give any examples, just say it is proven false and be done with it.

Regardless, historical examples would not 'prove' it false anyway, considering there is no comparison to be made with what it would have been like had local institutions not exists. What you purport to be 'proven' false is well known democratic theory, that takes its mark from many hundreds of years of democratic society, in many different cultures. It is also logically obvious that the best way to keep a society engaged and knowledgeable about the political process and system they live under, is to have them take an active part in the running of it. It forces individuals to delve into details and to pay attention to more than simply their own private interest alone. (methinks this is one of the problems that plagues us also: mindless consumerism)

But, of course, if you can 'prove' this wrong, then go right ahead.

[-p.tiddy-]

I want to talk more about this "Global Cooling" that I had no idea was going on...

seems to be confirmed by NASA and everyone else


Due to the latest data, scientists now believe Earth is headed for a global cooling phase that extends until the middle of the century. If the cooling phase is real, then the process will debunk all forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming. Six years ago, BBC reported that the Arctic would be ice-free by the summer of 2013. In fact, scientists in the US even claimed that the forecast was conservative.

http://www.isciencetimes.com/articles/6040/20130911/global-cooling-arctic-ice-cap-60-photo.htm


so "global warming" is just out now?...just like that? :wtf:

where is Duece Wallace? wtf is going on?...I want some answers to this, because now it is hard to take anyone's word on climate issues seriously

[KevinNYC]

Andrew was not as powerful a storm as Katrina. Andrew had higher windspeed, but Katrina actually had the lower air pressure and Katrina was a much bigger storm system in terms of how wide it was. It had hurricane strength winds for a width of 400 miles, twice the size of Andrew which if I'm reading this right was 180 miles wide. So Andrew was more intense, while Katrina affected a much larger area. Think if you took the energy of Andrew and spread it out over an area 2.2 times the size. The wind speeds would necessarily fall.


Even with winds of 175 mph (280 km/h), Andrew was a small tropical cyclone, with winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) extending out only about 90 miles (140 km) from its center.


Storm after storm could hit Florida, the Gulf, and the Southeast and people don't blink an eye. But if one slips up the coast like Sandy, OMG the world is coming to an end! Something has to be done about this!

Sandy was even bigger than Katrina in size. Sandy was 1,100 miles wide. It wasn't hype.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2013/10/huge_sandy_near-landfall_seen_from_space-1024x717.jpg

The issues with both Sandy and Katrina was the Saffir Simpson hurricane scale is based on wind speed only, and thus doesn't measure the storm surge which is affected by the size of the storm. So even though Katrina was "only a category 3" it was much more destructive that storms with higher winds.

[-p.tiddy-]

also just ran into this while reading up:

NEW DISCOVERY: NASA STUDY PROVES CARBON DIOXIDE COOLS ATMOSPHERE

[QUOTE]A recent NASA report throws the space agency into conflict with its climatologists after new NASA measurements prove that carbon dioxide acts as a coolant in Earth's atmosphere.
NASA's Langley Research Center has collated data proving that

[chips93]

also just ran into this while reading up:

NEW DISCOVERY: NASA STUDY PROVES CARBON DIOXIDE COOLS ATMOSPHERE



http://principia-scientific.org/supportnews/latest-news/163-new-discovery-nasa-study-proves-carbon-dioxide-cools-atmosphere.html


wtf

that article is nonsense. click on the link that they provide, the study by nasa isnt about CO2 cooling the earth.

the way greenhouse gases work is that they insulate the earth. so they do stop some heat getting in, its just that they stop more getting out, so there is a net gain in heat energy on earth.

and this isnt some new discovery like that article indicates, the report by nasa just casually refers to this process.

you wouldnt necessarily be wrong in saying that GHG cool the earth, its just that they heat it up more than they cool it.

that website you linked to has a pretty transparent anti-climate change agenda.

[KevinNYC]

*sigh* don't bother to give any examples, just say it is proven false and be done with it.

You can't think of any example in US history of local institutions enforcing "the despotism of the majority?"

Seriously?

[magic chiongson]

there was this 'debate' on piers morgan tonight where a journalist is on the humans caused global warming side and a scientist on the only a percentage of global warming is caused by humans side. i believe in the obvious that we are causing global warming but it just felt wrong for a journalist to lecture a scientist about scientific stuff :D

[KevinNYC]

also just ran into this while reading up:

NEW DISCOVERY: NASA STUDY PROVES CARBON DIOXIDE COOLS ATMOSPHERE



http://principia-scientific.org/supportnews/latest-news/163-new-discovery-nasa-study-proves-carbon-dioxide-cools-atmosphere.html


wtf

and where did you run across such nonsense?

[Dresta]

You can't think of any example in US history of local institutions enforcing "the despotism of the majority?"

Seriously?
Ok, i think you have misinterpreted what i am getting at when i refer to local institutions. I was not advocating granting complete power to the states: it should be their job to produce the vast majority of legislation, with the federal government performing the task of overseeing those laws and of ensuring that constitutional rights are being upheld. Perhaps if the federal government had not arrogated an incredible number of other responsibilities to itself, and given itself uncounted vested interests to appease, then it would be better at performing this primary function.

What i am actually asserting is the need to have people associating politically on a local level, thus granting them a role in the day to day administration of their lives. This keeps people politically engaged and motivates them to have a better understanding of how the country is run, as well as limiting the growth of self-interest democracies inevitable accompaniment. It also fosters a community spirit that helps provide the motivations that allow productive associations. This is why local institutions and provincial rights are salient for the survival of any democracy. There is a reason that all the countries that have been remotely successful and implementing a welfare state have tiny populations that are smaller than many US cities. Yet time and time again they are brought up by left-wing people to show how it can work here.

[-p.tiddy-]

and where did you run across such nonsense?
While reading up on global cooling

The ice caps are growing, that seems to be fact... Dozens of articles out on global cooling right now...perhaps that article I posted is wrong but it seems there is something to global cooling.

[rufuspaul]

Sandy was even bigger than Katrina in size. Sandy was 1,100 miles wide. It wasn't hype.



I never said it was. Although not as common as in the Gulf or the Southeast hurricanes have hit the Northeast numerous times throughout history and it seems that when it happens nowadays people scream that it's some sort of man-made armageddon.

[KevinNYC]

I never said it was. Although not as common as in the Gulf or the Southeast hurricanes have hit the Northeast numerous times throughout history and it seems that when it happens nowadays people scream that it's some sort of man-made armageddon.
I think you're trying to have it both ways. Your point is only valid if the storm is routine and not worth screaming about. Except it was Sandy, an1,100 mile wide tropical storm

[rufuspaul]

I think you're trying to have it both ways. Your point is only valid if the storm is routine and not worth screaming about. Except it was Sandy, an1,100 mile wide tropical storm

Sandy wasn't even a hurricane when it hit NYC. Yeah it was big, so what? My point is these storms occur and will continue to occur and don't necessarily mean increased greenhouse gases are the cause.


http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_hurricanehistory.shtml




Early New York Hurricanes

1821 HURRICANE
Reaching the City on September 3, 1821, the storm was one of the only hurricanes believed to have passed directly over parts of modern New York City. The tide rose 13 feet in one hour and inundated wharves, causing the East River to converge into the Hudson River across lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street. However, few deaths were attributed to the storm because flooding was concentrated in neighborhoods with far fewer homes than exist today.

1938 HURRICANE
The most powerful hurricane known to have made landfall nearby — a category 3 hurricane — occurred in 1938. Its eye crossed over Long Island and into New England, killing nearly 200 people. The storm killed 10 people in New York City and caused millions of dollars in damage. Its floods knocked out electrical power in all areas above 59th Street in Manhattan and in all of the Bronx, the new IND subway line lost power, and 100 large trees in Central Park were destroyed.

Fortunately, New York City experienced the weaker "left side" of the 1938 hurricane — the City was 75 miles from the eye when it passed over Long Island. The hurricane could have caused far more deaths and damage if it passed closer to the five boroughs.

An excellent history of the 1938 hurricane is provided at Scott Mandia's website: The Long Island Express: The Great Hurricane of 1938.



Mid-Twentieth Century Hurricanes

CAROL
In 1954, Hurricane Carol made landfall in Eastern Long Island and Southeastern Connecticut. With sustained winds over 100 mph and gusts of 115 to 125 mph, it was the most destructive hurricane to hit the Northeast coast since the Long Island Express in 1938. Fortunately for City residents, the storm's track was forty miles further east, and spared it a direct hit, but did result in major flooding throughout the City.

DONNA
In 1960, Hurricane Donna created an 11-foot storm tide in the New York Harbor that caused extensive pier damage.

CONNIE & DIANE
Leftover rains from hurricanes Diane and Connie caused significant flooding in the City in August 1955, even though the eye of those storms did not cross directly over any of the five boroughs. Diane caused more than 200 deaths in Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey. Connie dropped more than 12 inches of rain at LaGuardia Airport.

AGNES
In June 1972, Tropical Storm Agnes fused with another storm system in the northeastern U.S., flooding areas from North Carolina to New York State, causing 122 deaths and more than $6 billion dollars in damage (when adjusted for inflation).

GLORIA
The US Army Corps of Engineers has said that 1985's Hurricane Gloria could have been catastrophic if it arrived at high tide and just a little closer to the City.



Recent Hurricanes

Many hurricane experts say the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have begun to spin off more frequent and destructive hurricanes than in previous decades. Tropical storms have been on the rise since 1995, and a record 15 hurricanes made their way into the North Atlantic in 2005.

FELIX
Hurricane Felix lingered off the East Coast for nearly a week in 1995, menacing the northeastern U.S. before it finally drifted out to sea.

BERTHA
A weakening Tropical Storm Bertha brought heavy rain to the City in July 1996.

EDOUARD
Hurricane Edouard veered out to sea after tracking toward New York City around Labor Day 1996.

FLOYD
In September 1999, Tropical Storm Floyd brought sustained 60 mph winds and dumped 10-15 inches of rain on upstate New Jersey and New York State over a 24-hour period. Flash flooding from this tropical storm — one of the most powerful to affect New York City in a decade — forced hundreds of people to leave their homes in counties just outside the five boroughs. Floyd caused New York City's schools to close for the first time since 1996 and led the city to open emergency storm shelters as a precautionary measure.

IRENE
In August 2011, Hurricane Irene was downgraded to a tropical storm right before it made landfall in New York City. In preparation the City issued the first-ever mandatory evacuation of coastal areas on August 26, 2011. The evacuation encompassed 375,000 residents living in evacuation zone A, the entire Rockaway Peninsula, and 34 health care facilities located in evacuation zone B. The City sheltered 10,000 evacuees at 81 shelters. The rest stayed with family and friends outside the evacuation zones. Irene dropped up to seven inches of rain across the city and brought winds of 65 mph. The storm cost the city an estimated $100 million in damages. More than 8,000 residents were approved for $13.6 million in federal disaster assistance to help with the recovery.

SANDY
In late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone as it made landfall in New York City. In preparation the City issued the second-ever mandatory evacuation of coastal areas on October 28, 2012. The evacuation encompassed residents living in evacuation zone A, which was updated to include: Coney Island, Manhattan Beach, and Red Hook and other areas along the East River in Brooklyn; all of the Rockaways, as well as Hamilton Beach and Broad Channel in Queens; almost all the coastal areas of Staten Island; City Island, a small patch of Throgs Neck, and other patches of the South Bronx; and Battery Park City and stretches of the West Side waterfront and of the Lower East Side and East Village in Manhattan. The City opened 76 shelters to the public. Sandy brought winds of up to 85 mph, total rainfall of about 1 inch across the city, as well as a peak storm surge of 13.88 feet.

Interesting that the article seems to suggest that hurricanes are more prevalent yet there haven't really been any this year and hardly any at all in the Southeast for several years.

[sirkeelma]

Another "Super Typhoon" heading towards Philippines. :(

http://i1283.photobucket.com/albums/a558/sirkee318/Untitled_zps9177d591.jpg (http://s1283.photobucket.com/user/sirkee318/media/Untitled_zps9177d591.jpg.html)

MANILA, Philippines - The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States military expects Typhoon 'Hagupit' to intensify into a super typhoon within 48 hours.

In an update posted on its website on Wednesday, the JTWC said the typhoon was packing 1-minute sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour (100 knots) and gusts of 231 kilometers per hour (125 knots).

The Hawaii-based agency sees the cyclone to intensify further as it moves closer to the Philippines.

"Favorable sea surface temperatures, along with continually favorable upper-level conditions, will allow the system to further intensify and is expected to reach super typhoon status by TAU 48," the JTWC said.

By December 5, Friday, the agency expects Hagupit to bear sustained winds of 240 kilometers per hour (130 knots).

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Hagupit will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday and make landfall on Saturday. It is still looking at two scenarios for the typhoon.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2014/12/03/1398651/hagupit-intensify-super-typhoon

[deja vu]

I'm stuck in Central Visayas, Philippines right now. I'm a bit scared already. People are panic buying here like crazy.

[rezznor]

RIP Lebron23

[BurningHammer]

RIP Lebron23
He survived Haiyan last year. There is a great chance he will again.

[TylerOO]

I'd hate the be there. No Xbox or Internet for a few days. I'd go nuts.

[sirkeelma]

Its radius is wider than Haiyan but its maximum sustained wind is weaker.

[senelcoolidge]

My wife and two sons are in Cebu now. In fact my son is in the hospital now. So my wife and eldest son will spend the storm at the hospital. I didn't even know they had typhoons in December. It's a pretty stressful time for me. I really do wish the people there the best. This sucks.

^ Wider, but with weaker wind. It's going to be a wet storm. Probably a lot of flooding. Those are usually worse because they last longer and have a lot of rain. Dry storms just breeze through but leave a lot of damage.

[BigBoss]

I'm stuck in Central Visayas, Philippines right now. I'm a bit scared already. People are panic buying here like crazy.

be safe dude

[sirkeelma]

My wife and two sons are in Cebu now. In fact my son is in the hospital now. So my wife and eldest son will spend the storm at the hospital. I didn't even know they had typhoons in December. It's a pretty stressful time for me. I really do wish the people there the best. This sucks.

^ Wider, but with weaker wind. It's going to be a wet storm. Probably a lot of flooding. Those are usually worse because they last longer and have a lot of rain. Dry storms just breeze through but leave a lot of damage.

Power lines are down for sure. 200+ Kph will do a lot of damage. Just tell them to stay away near coast lines.

[magic chiongson]

He survived Haiyan last year. There is a great chance he will again.

dude's like a cockroach, he'll be fine :D

[magic chiongson]

My wife and two sons are in Cebu now. In fact my son is in the hospital now. So my wife and eldest son will spend the storm at the hospital. I didn't even know they had typhoons in December. It's a pretty stressful time for me. I really do wish the people there the best. This sucks.

^ Wider, but with weaker wind. It's going to be a wet storm. Probably a lot of flooding. Those are usually worse because they last longer and have a lot of rain. Dry storms just breeze through but leave a lot of damage.

at least they will be in a better place than most people. i wish them the best

[sirkeelma]

CNN: Hagupit is "Strongest Storm of the Year" 2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqP-zlJ8aLA)