What Happened To The NBA Draft Post 2000?

[Soundwave]

I remember in the 80s/90s, winning the draft lottery of getting a top 1/2/3 pick often meant getting a franchise altering superstar level talent. Like a Shaq or DRobinson or Tim Duncan would come around every 2-3 years it seemed like. Or maybe at least like a Jason Kidd or Grant Hill or Chris Webber or Penny Hardaway.

Aside from that monster 2003 draft, it seems like the drafts after 2000 have been fairly weak.

Is the NCAA failing to produce the same level of superstar players? It just seems like there's not as many "stars" coming into the NBA anymore. I guess Wiggins this year (finally). Is there something wrong with player development in high school?

Like if you're drafting 1/2 in a draft year you should not be getting a mediocre/above average player.

[aj1987]

Derrick Rose, KD, Westbrick, PG, CP3, Dwight, etc.

[Soundwave]

Derrick Rose, KD, Westbrick, PG, CP3, Dwight, etc.

There's been a few good players yeah, but it just seems overall the draft doesn't yield as much talent these days.

Getting a no.1 pick in 90s was like your franchise was for sure going to get at bare minimum an All-Star caliber player. Until Olokawandi screwed that up :lol

[aj1987]

There's been a few good players yeah, but it just seems overall the draft doesn't yield as much talent these days.

Getting a no.1 pick in 90s was like your franchise was for sure going to get at bare minimum an All-Star caliber player. Until Olokawandi screwed that up :lol
You're forgetting Joe Smith.

Durant, CP3, TP, PG, Dwight, Westbrick, Love, LMA, Rose, Harden, Curry, etc. All these guys would be good to great players in any era. A couple of them made the ASG, All-NBA teams, won DPOY's, MVP's, etc..

[Trentknicks]

I think it really comes down to the amount of 'one and done's' coming through the college system into todays NBA, especially big men. When discussing the elite big men of the 90s, you hear of Ewing, Shaq, Robinson & Hakeem. They all spent 3-4 years in college developing their skillsets, despite the fact they could have easily been high picks if they declared 1-2 years earlier.

Obviously the money incentive is a big thing these days, especially if injury risks surface during their college career. I mean, why risk doing another season of college and getting injured if they can get into the NBA and have a few million guaranteed on their rookie contract? Due to the internet/youtube age every 7 footer with a pinch of athleticism can be discovered and given a shot at college level, hardly the 'best of the best' only these days.

The games also changed a bit, post play isn't as required or held in the same importance it once was. Seems these days if you can get a big man who is mobile, can defend the rim and dunk, your essentially set. Especially considering some of the players are so athletically gifted that they can dominate their college opponent on those gifts alone. Why bother learning some post moves and a jump shot if they are getting 15-20ppg on high efficiency shots near the rim? No saying I agree with this at all but it all seems a bit short sighted, almost as if player A would rather achieve something like:

15/12/2 blocks on high efficiency using only their athleticism than having their FG% and potentially PPG total dropping but having a solid skillset. I personally love seeing players like David West/Z-Bo go to work in the post.

Guess you could probably put a lot of the same problems associated with big men draftees in the guard category too. Too many one and done's and people maximising their one talent or call card, i.e driving the lane, shooting, quickness in favour of developing an all round skillset.

[Soundwave]

You're forgetting Joe Smith.

Durant, CP3, TP, PG, Dwight, Westbrick, Love, LMA, Rose, Harden, Curry, etc. All these guys would be good to great players in any era. A couple of them made the ASG, All-NBA teams, won DPOY's, MVP's, etc..

Yeah, Joe Smith, though I get the feeling a young Joe Smith would be a fairly consistent 18/10 player in today's league.

I just remember when winning the NBA draft lottery was like Christmas. Now sometimes it seems like the top 3 players sometimes all go bust or are 'decent' players only.

It's part of the reason there's so much suckage in the East I think ... a lot of these franchises have been banking on the draft to help them build but they haven't been getting any star players out of it.

The Bulls finally got Derrick Rose, but that was like their 2nd or 3rd attempt at a rebuild post-dynasty era. Remember when they tried to bank on Eddy Curry/Tyson Chandler/Jay Will/Tyrus Thomas.

Even teams like Cleveland and Chicago that did hit the jackpot with LeBron and DRose have struggled to find a second star player out of the draft, whereas Shaq for example got Penny almost right away.

[BoutPractice]

There are always misses in the draft.

1st picks have actually been the right choice most of the time since 2000.
Players drafted in the top 3 since 2000 include Gasol, Yao, LeBron, Melo, Dwight, Deron, Aldridge, Durant, Rose, Blake, Harden, Wall, Irving, Davis. These are all perennial all-star type talents, most of them HOF caliber. Most of the big talent in today's league was drafted in the top 3. The 2013 draft could be an exception unless you believe in Oladipo, but the 2014 future is almost certain to feature at least a future HOF in the top 3.

And when the big talent wasn't drafted in the top 3, it was often a "near miss" too, like Chris Paul being taken 5th, Westbrook and Love being taken 4th and 5th. Or players that got unlucky but had HOF potential like Greg Oden.

In comparison, the 90s weren't the draft heaven they're portrayed to be in this thread. 1998 was a particularly bad case: the top 3 was Olowokandi, Bibby and LaFrentz when the draft featured Dirk, Paul Pierce and Vince Carter. Oops. In 1997, Keith Van Horn was a top 3 pick. In 1996, Camby and Abdur-Rahim, while very good players, were selected in the top 3 before... Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Jermaine O'Neal, and Ray Allen. The first pick in 1995 was Joe Smith. In 1994 it was Glenn Robinson who while an all-star was selected before Jason Kidd and Grant Hill. Shawn Bradley was a top 3 pick in 1993. The top 3 in 1991: Larry Johnson, Kenny Anderson and Billy Owen. And in 1990 the top pick was Derrick Coleman.

[HeatFanSince88]

It's part of the reason there's so much suckage in the East I think ... a lot of these franchises have been banking on the draft to help them build but they haven't been getting any star players out of it.


to me it seems like the west teams usually get the elite players by the draft. I think it's easier to bottom out in the West since your schedule is going up against those West teams night after night. or maybe just superior front offices i'd have to look to see who is getting these top picks.

like right now Utah has some decent pieces, but they are a lock to have the worst record. a lot of east teams in way worst shape since they will get bs wins by going up against eachother someone will have to win.

[Soundwave]

I tried to go back and look at the draft years and pick out the multiple time All-Stars (and not guys who made the All-Star team because of weak positions or something) from the 1st round. Bolded are legit superstar/hall of fame type players. 2010+ list is obviously incomplete.


1990-1999:

Gary Payton (90), Derrick Coleman (90), Larry Johnson (91), Dikembe Mutombo (91), Steve Smith (91), Shaquille O' Neal (92), Alonzo Mourning (92), Latrell Sprewell (92), Chris Webber (93), Anfernee Hardaway (93), Vin Baker (93) Glenn Robinson (94), Jason Kidd (94), Grant Hill (94), Juwan Howard (94), Jerry Stackhouse (95), Rasheed Wallace (95), Kevin Garnett (95), Michael Finley (95), Allen Iverson (96), Stephon Marbury (96), Kobe Bryant (96), Steve Nash (96), Ray Allen (96), Antoine Walker (96), Jermaine O' Neal (96), Peja Stojakovic (96), Tim Duncan (97), Tracy McGrady (97), Chauncey Billups (97), Vince Carter (98), Dirk Nowitzki (98), Antawn Jamison (98), Paul Pierce (98), Elton Brand (99)

35 players total.

2000-2009:

Pau Gasol (01), Joe Johnson (01), Zach Randolph (01), Tony Parker (01), Yao Ming (02), LeBron James (03), Carmelo Anthony (03), Dwayne Wade (03), Chris Bosh (03), Dwight Howard (04), Chris Paul (05), Deron Williams (05), Lamarcus Aldridge (06), Kevin Durant (07), Russell Westbrook (08), Derrick Rose (08), Kevin Love (08), Blake Griffin (09), James Harden (09)

19 players total.

2010-present:

John Wall (10), DeMarcus Cousins (10), Kyrie Irving (11)

It seems to me like there is definitely a decline going on.

EDIT: Added Westbrook and Parker. Yao was already there.

[aj1987]

I tried to go back and look at the draft years and pick out the multiple time All-Stars (and not guys who made the All-Star team because of weak positions or something). Bolded are legit superstar/hall of fame type players. 2010+ list is obviously incomplete.


1990-1999:

Gary Payton (90), Derrick Coleman (90), Larry Johnson (91), Dikembe Mutombo (91), Steve Smith (91), Shaquille O' Neal (92), Alonzo Mourning (92), Latrell Sprewell (92), Chris Webber (93), Anfernee Hardaway (93), Glenn Robinson (94), Jason Kidd (94), Grant Hill (94), Juwan Howard (94), Jerry Stackhouse (95), Rasheed Wallace (95), Kevin Garnett (95), Michael Finley (95), Allen Iverson (96), Stephon Marbury (96), Kobe Bryant (96), Steve Nash (96), Ray Allen (96), Antoine Walker (96), Jermaine O' Neal (96), Peja Stojakovic (96), Tim Duncan (97), Tracy McGrady (97), Chauncey Billups (97), Vince Carter (98), Dirk Nowitzki (98), Antawn Jamison (98), Paul Pierce (98), Elton Brand (99)

2000-2009:

Pau Gasol (01), Joe Johnson (01), Zach Randolph (01), Yao Ming (02), LeBron James (03), Carmelo Anthony (03), Dwayne Wade (03), Chris Bosh (03), Dwight Howard (04), Chris Paul (05), Deron Williams (05), Lamarcus Aldridge (06), Kevin Durant (07), Derrick Rose (08), Kevin Love (08), Blake Griffin (09)

2010-present:

John Wall (10), DeMarcus Cousins (10), Kyrie Irving (11)
Tony Parker, Yao Ming, Westbrick, and Harden are missing. Carmelo, TP, Ming, and Bosh are making the HOF for sure.

Also, PG and AD in the 2010- column..

[BoutPractice]

Since you've bolded TMac and Ray Allen, I think Pau, Carmelo and Yao should be bolded too. Pau is a legit HOFer, and so is Carmelo who will probably end up with better accolades than TMac. Yao is actually already a HOFer. Also, many people drafted in the 00s haven't finished their careers: Love and Griffin look like they're on the path to perennial all-star and HOF candidate. And you forgot Westbrook and Harden, who may end up being bolded as well.

Edit: That's right, I forgot Tony Parker too.

[Soundwave]

Since you've bolded TMac and Ray Allen, I think Pau, Carmelo and Yao should be bolded too. Pau is a legit HOFer, and so is Carmelo who will probably end up with better accolades than TMac. Yao is actually already a HOFer. Also, many people drafted in the 00s haven't finished their careers: Love and Griffin look like they're on the path to perennial all-star and HOF candidate. And you forgot Westbrook and Harden, who may end up being bolded as well.

Edit: That's right, I forgot Tony Parker too.

I tried to bold guys though if you drafted them would basically alter your/carry your franchise. Perhaps I should unbold Ray Allen, but his career accomplishments from the 3 point line make it hard to do.

There are some guys like Vince Carter and Chris Webber at least at the peak of their careers who would be close too.

[moe94]

I tried to go back and look at the draft years and pick out the multiple time All-Stars (and not guys who made the All-Star team because of weak positions or something) from the 1st round. Bolded are legit superstar/hall of fame type players. 2010+ list is obviously incomplete.

Pau
Parker
Bosh
Deke
Zo
Webber

All HoF worthy

[Soundwave]

Pau
Parker
Bosh
Deke
Zo
Webber

All HoF worthy

Yeah I'm trying to limit the guys though who would make the HOF because of circumstance (ie: they happened to play on a very good team with a better player ahead of them) rather than pure "franchise carrying" ability if that makes sense.

[monkeypox]

This is why I don't think tanking is a good idea. Look at the current Lakers, they're full of former lotto picks who are in their prime and they stink. You guarantee sucking to improve your chances at getting a player who may be great and even if you get him he may leave by the time he enters his prime.

[kshutts1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NBA_draft_picks

That's a list of first overall picks, according to wikipedia. Just by glancing through the list, I'd say the first pick being a "franchise altering (good way) player" is more spotty than you believe.

There were good stretches, there were bad stretches. But we also seem to be in a good stretch... Rose, Griffin, Wall, Irving, Davis are all studs.

[rock la familia]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NBA_draft_picks

That's a list of first overall picks, according to wikipedia. Just by glancing through the list, I'd say the first pick being a "franchise altering (good way) player" is more spotty than you believe.

There were good stretches, there were bad stretches. But we also seem to be in a good stretch... Rose, Griffin, Wall, Irving, Davis are all studs.

Good run so far

[Soundwave]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NBA_draft_picks

That's a list of first overall picks, according to wikipedia. Just by glancing through the list, I'd say the first pick being a "franchise altering (good way) player" is more spotty than you believe.

There were good stretches, there were bad stretches. But we also seem to be in a good stretch... Rose, Griffin, Wall, Irving, Davis are all studs.

I never said there were no good players coming in. I said that there seems to be fewer All-Star caliber talents entering the NBA these days.

I think it's hard to argue when you look at the list.

A "good run" is Kobe, Nash, Duncan, Allen, Iverson, Vince Carter, T-Mac, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce entering the league in a 3 year stretch.

[retaxis]

I never said there were no good players coming in. I said that there seems to be fewer All-Star caliber talents entering the NBA these days.

I think it's hard to argue when you look at the list.

A "good run" is Kobe, Nash, Duncan, Allen, Iverson, Vince Carter, T-Mac, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce entering the league in a 3 year stretch.
You do realise most of the people drafted post 2000s are not even done with their career yet and may actually just be starting to find their feet? 2 years ago everyone thought the philly was going to be the next big thing when they came out of the gates like 21-5 top #1 seed with a core of jrue, evans, igoudala, thad and no one even looked like scubs like Paul George or Hibbert. Things change very quickly and for you to make such stupid conclusions before all things are said or even closely done demonstrates significant holes in your ability to reason.

Then again reason and context begins developing in your early to mid 20s. Perhaps your still a teenager?

[aj1987]

I never said there were no good players coming in. I said that there seems to be fewer All-Star caliber talents entering the NBA these days.

I think it's hard to argue when you look at the list.

A "good run" is Kobe, Nash, Duncan, Allen, Iverson, Vince Carter, T-Mac, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce entering the league in a 3 year stretch.
You also have Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Carmelo, Dwight, CP3, TP, Yao, and Amare who got drafted between '02-'04. A three year stretch. As I said previously, there's no lack of talent.
Superstars since '00 - TP, Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Carmelo, Dwight, CP3, TP, Yao, Amare, PG, KD, Westbrick, Rose, Love, LMA, Pau, Arenas, Deron, Rondo, Harden, Griffin, and Irving. (HM - Davis)

[I<3NBA]

i've said it before, and i'll say it again: player development > drafting/scouting.


what you do with what you get is better than what you get and not doing anything.

all these franchises that have high picks going busts simply do not know how to turn their rough rocks into diamonds.

perhaps it's coaches destroying players' confidence, or players' not learning a damn thing from coaching staff, or players' utilized incorrectly...

i've always believed that if somebody is good enough to be included in the draft, then they are good enough to succeed in the NBA.

[Soundwave]

You do realise most of the people drafted post 2000s are not even done with their career yet and may actually just be starting to find their feet? 2 years ago everyone thought the philly was going to be the next big thing when they came out of the gates like 21-5 top #1 seed with a core of jrue, evans, igoudala, thad and no one even looked like scubs like Paul George or Hibbert. Things change very quickly and for you to make such stupid conclusions before all things are said or even closely done demonstrates significant holes in your ability to reason.

Then again reason and context begins developing in your early to mid 20s. Perhaps your still a teenager?

Most players who look like they're going to be stars in this league start to show it by their 3rd or 4th season (and that's usually a long time), so no, I don't buy that line of excuse.

[2LeTTeRS]

I tried to go back and look at the draft years and pick out the multiple time All-Stars (and not guys who made the All-Star team because of weak positions or something) from the 1st round. Bolded are legit superstar/hall of fame type players. 2010+ list is obviously incomplete.


1990-1999:

Gary Payton (90), Derrick Coleman (90), Larry Johnson (91), Dikembe Mutombo (91), Steve Smith (91), Shaquille O' Neal (92), Alonzo Mourning (92), Latrell Sprewell (92), Chris Webber (93), Anfernee Hardaway (93), Vin Baker (93) Glenn Robinson (94), Jason Kidd (94), Grant Hill (94), Juwan Howard (94), Jerry Stackhouse (95), Rasheed Wallace (95), Kevin Garnett (95), Michael Finley (95), Allen Iverson (96), Stephon Marbury (96), Kobe Bryant (96), Steve Nash (96), Ray Allen (96), Antoine Walker (96), Jermaine O' Neal (96), Peja Stojakovic (96), Tim Duncan (97), Tracy McGrady (97), Chauncey Billups (97), Vince Carter (98), Dirk Nowitzki (98), Antawn Jamison (98), Paul Pierce (98), Elton Brand (99)

35 players total.

2000-2009:

Pau Gasol (01), Joe Johnson (01), Zach Randolph (01), Tony Parker (01), Yao Ming (02), LeBron James (03), Carmelo Anthony (03), Dwayne Wade (03), Chris Bosh (03), Dwight Howard (04), Chris Paul (05), Deron Williams (05), Lamarcus Aldridge (06), Kevin Durant (07), Russell Westbrook (08), Derrick Rose (08), Kevin Love (08), Blake Griffin (09), James Harden (09)

19 players total.

2010-present:

John Wall (10), DeMarcus Cousins (10), Kyrie Irving (11)

It seems to me like there is definitely a decline going on.

EDIT: Added Westbrook and Parker. Yao was already there.

You missed more than a few players from 2000-2009

Gilbert Arenas (01), Gerald Wallace (01), Tyson Chandler (01), Caron Butler (02), Carlos Boozer (02), David West (03), Luol Deng (04), Andre Iguodala (04), Josh Smith (04), Andrew Bynum (05), Danny Granger (05), David Lee (05), Brandon Roy (06), Rajon Rondo (06), Marc Gasol (07), Joakim Noah (07), Jeff Green (07), Eric Gordon (08), Roy Hibbert (08), Brook Lopez (08), Steph Curry (09), Jrue Holiday (09), Tyreke Evans (09)

* Players in bold already have made 2 or more all-star games.