View Full Version : ESPN Has A New Plus/Minus Stat...
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10740818/introducing-real-plus-minus
Its an adjusted plus/minus. Can't take credit for this, found it at realgm..
This stat is the best because it measures all the little things that don't show up in a box score, but help your team win, and on defense. In terms of wins added (RAPM + minutes played)...here are the most productive players in the league..
1 LeBron James,
2 Kevin Durant,
3 Stephen Curry,
4 Chris Paul,
5 Kevin Love,
6 Dirk Nowitzki,
7 DeAndre Jordan,
8 Andre Iguodala,
9 Blake Griffin,
10 LaMarcus Aldridge,
11 Tim Duncan,
12 Ricky Rubio,
13 Kyle Lowry,
14 Goran Dragic,
15 Joakim Noah
mr.big35
04-10-2014, 11:55 AM
another useless stats created by espn
BlackVVaves
04-10-2014, 11:59 AM
According to this, DJ > Blake, Rubio > Dragic.
Yeah. Advanced stats for the win :pukes:
handbanana
04-10-2014, 12:05 PM
another useless stats created by espn
another ignorant ish poster
mr.big35
04-10-2014, 12:06 PM
you have to look how that player plays than look at the stats
You guys really need to read the link before judging...This is not the normal plus/minus stat, its a adjusted one, it includes defense and plays that don't show up in box scores, just as the dude described...
So Gibson helps his team win by doing all the little things that never show up in a box score. But how can we measure the value of running the floor hard, or making smart defensive rotations, or setting great screens?
And how can we tell if Gibson has been more valuable to his team than, let's say, Clippers sixth man Jamal Crawford, who has scored more points than Gibson (18.6 versus 13.2 PPG) on a higher true shooting percentage (55.7 versus 52.8) while logging heavier minutes (30.3 versus 28.8 MPG) for a better team in a tougher conference?..
Let's return to the previous comparison of Taj Gibson and Jamal Crawford. The chart shows their respective RPM ratings.
REAL PLUS-MINUS (2013-14)
PLAYER ORPM DRPM RPM
T. Gibson 0.70 3.42 4.12
J. Crawford 1.53 -1.96 -0.43
Crawford has the higher offensive RPM (+1.53 versus +0.70), but the advantage turns out to be surprisingly small, given Crawford's scoring talents. It's worth only about one additional point per game.
And on the other end, the players are miles apart. In fact, Gibson's defensive impact (+3.42 DRPM) is large enough to give him a truly elite overall RPM rating (+4.12), placing him in the company of All-Stars like James Harden (+3.44 RPM), Chris Bosh (+3.75), Joakim Noah (+3.89), Russell Westbrook (+4.09) and Dwight Howard (+3.99).
In contrast, Crawford appears to give away a bit more on defense (-1.96 DRPM) than he contributes on offense, with an overall RPM impact (-0.43) that's slightly below the league average...
Marchesk
04-10-2014, 12:29 PM
5 Kevin Love
Kevin's not empty after all.
RPM can also shed light on our question about the true impact of third-year guard Reggie Jackson, as the table shows.
REAL PLUS-MINUS (2013-14)
PLAYER ORPM DRPM RPM
K. Durant 6.10 0.67 6.77
R. Westbrook 4.08 0.01 4.09
S. Ibaka 0.47 2.63 3.10
R. Jackson 0.67 0.82 1.49
RPM accounts for the contributions of OKC stars Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka (as well as Jackson's other teammates).
After doing so, RPM indicates Jackson has had a moderately positive impact this season on both sides of the ball. His total RPM rating (+1.49), while far below that of his more heralded teammates, is consistent with the play of a quality NBA starter, and it's higher than that of more established guards such as Lance Stephenson, Kevin Martin and Wesley Matthews...
Marchesk
04-10-2014, 12:32 PM
Chris Bosh (+3.75)
Lebron stans can quit complaining about lack of help now.
Lebron stans can quit complaining about lack of help now.
Exactly...I like this stat because it does account for many things that don't show up...No stat is flawless but this is pretty good...
It also proves what many already knew but some denied....That scoring is OVERRATED..unless you're a super elite-scorer, defense and rebounding and hustle plays are more imortant..
T_L_P
04-10-2014, 12:44 PM
Another pointless advanced stat that LeBron fans will cling on to :applause:
According to this, DJ > Blake, Rubio > Dragic.
Yeah. Advanced stats for the win :pukes:
Deandre Jordan is top 10 in like 3 different categories....Rebounding, blocks, and shooting percentage...I'm pretty sure he's the only one in the league also...The last time a player was top 10 in 4 categories was Barkley I believe. So if you go off that, DJ does have more of an overall impact on the game...He's rebounding, blocking shots, setting good screens, playing defense...
Another pointless advanced stat that LeBron fans will cling on to :applause:
Actually they shouldn't because many of them put down his cast to prop him up which they can't do with this stat because it shows how valuable Bosh actually is...
T_L_P
04-10-2014, 12:56 PM
Actually they shouldn't because many of them put down his cast to prop him up which they can't do with this stat because it shows how valuable Bosh actually is...
I've seen at least three people on here say LeBron is the MVP because of this new stat.
It's pathetic and hilarious at the same time. It's the same with LeBron's defense: advanced stats show it's not up to par but when their boy gets called out on it they cite the "eye test".
I've seen at least three people on here say LeBron is the MVP because of this new stat.
It's pathetic and hilarious at the same time. It's the same with LeBron's defense: advanced stats show it's not up to par but when their boy gets called out on it they cite the "eye test".
I feel you there...I do hate that...
LeBron has been accused of coasting at times this season, and RPM reveals where the charge may have merit.
REAL PLUS-MINUS (2013-14)
PLAYER ORPM DRPM RPM
L. James 8.32 -0.21 8.11
While LeBron was aptly named to the NBA All-Defensive Team last season, his defensive impact this season has been surprisingly mediocre, at least as measured by RPM (-0.21 DRPM). His rating is consistent with the claim that James has not consistently given his best effort this season on the defensive end...
Some dude on realgm really broke down how these stats work...
The numbers have to be read as: Player x changes the result per 100 poss by y amount of points, if y is the RPM value. An average player has 0. Right now the league average rating per 100 poss is about 106.5. Meaning, an average team is scoring 106.5 points in 100 possession, while they also allow 106.5 points in 100 poss. If we take Anthony Davis here as an example, his values means that with him on the court and 4 average players, the expected result would be +1.09 over average on offense (rounding to 1.1) and +0.52 over average on defense (rounded to 0.5). Translating that to the team result would mean, that a team would be expected to score 107.6 points per 100 poss, while they would allow 106.0 points per 100 poss (a value for defense has to be subtracted), therefore creating a scoring margin per 100 poss of 1.6 points (or 1.61 points when the accurate numbers are used, like we see his value at RPM is). Hope that helps to interpret the numbers.
Obviously, someone playing more minutes than another player adds value. Also, the RPM value might be heavily effected by the role a player is assigned to on a team, while a different role might change the value in one way or another. Usually players are following a development curve over their career, but rather staying within a small range at their respective "prime".
The numbers are derived via regression analysis; that is a method used to determine the impact from various variables on a result. In that case each player is seen as a variable and the overall scoring margin would be the result. The method in case of RPM is ridge regression, which helps to get better predictive values; which comes with the price of getting a worse explaination (which is why some people adding up those WAR values aren't getting the exact number of wins for each team). The "creator" also uses a baysian distribution, adjusts for coaching differences, applies such a development curve as well as uses prior values for each player based on boxscore stats in order to achieve an even better prediction.
I hope that helped a little bit ...
AnaheimLakers24
04-10-2014, 01:03 PM
gay stats for homos
gay stats for homos
So in other words you don't understand them?
DMAVS41
04-10-2014, 01:14 PM
..
See...I really like this.
Everyone here has been saying Lebron's defense hasn't been as good as it was the last few years.
And they are right...and it's hilarious that the stats everyone always rails on...actually show them to be right as Lebron is having a negative defensive rapm season.
His first one in years or perhaps ever iirc.
These stats are not perfect, but they take the noise out of plus/minus as best we can right now and talk how they impact their teams...
Like any stat...it's need to be put into proper context and compare players playing similar roles...etc.
BlackVVaves
04-10-2014, 01:20 PM
Deandre Jordan is top 10 in like 3 different categories....Rebounding, blocks, and shooting percentage...I'm pretty sure he's the only one in the league also...The last time a player was top 10 in 4 categories was Barkley I believe. So if you go off that, DJ does have more of an overall impact on the game...He's rebounding, blocking shots, setting good screens, playing defense...
Read the link, I adjust my original stance...but only slightly.
These advanced stats are useful metrics to fill out the blank, not outline the sketch. Ultimately, they should be used to supplement an assessment of a player, not solely build that assessment.
Sadly, that's what many people do these days. Player A is a better shooter than Player B because he shot 2% higher than him. Ect., ect. That's the flawed logic I detest.
Shout out to DJ for finally relinquishing his stubbornness when it comes to getting offensive touches, and focusing on being a defensive anchor. Think it's absurd that some peg him as the DPOY this year, but if Doc can continue to foster his talents and knowledge on that end, I definitely can see him walking away with one...maybe two DPOY awards in the future.
BlackVVaves
04-10-2014, 01:21 PM
See...I really like this.
Everyone here has been saying Lebron's defense hasn't been as good as it was the last few years.
And they are right...and it's hilarious that the stats everyone always rails on...actually show them to be right as Lebron is having a negative defensive rapm season.
His first one in years or perhaps ever iirc.
These stats are not perfect, but they take the noise out of plus/minus as best we can right now and talk how they impact their teams...
Like any stat...it's need to be put into proper context and compare players playing similar roles...etc.
This X 1000. Especially the last sentence.
Read the link, I adjust my original stance...but only slightly.
These advanced stats are useful metrics to fill out the blank, not outline the sketch. Ultimately, they should be used to supplement an assessment of a player, not solely build that assessment.
Sadly, that's what many people do these days. Player A is a better shooter than Player B because he shot 2% higher than him. Ect., ect. That's the flawed logic I detest.
Shout out to DJ for finally relinquishing his stubbornness when it comes to getting offensive touches, and focusing on being a defensive anchor. Think it's absurd that some peg him as the DPOY this year, but if Doc can continue to foster his talents and knowledge on that end, I definitely can see him walking away with one...maybe two DPOY awards in the future.
I agree completely...
See...I really like this.
Everyone here has been saying Lebron's defense hasn't been as good as it was the last few years.
And they are right...and it's hilarious that the stats everyone always rails on...actually show them to be right as Lebron is having a negative defensive rapm season.
His first one in years or perhaps ever iirc.
These stats are not perfect, but they take the noise out of plus/minus as best we can right now and talk how they impact their teams...
Like any stat...it's need to be put into proper context and compare players playing similar roles...etc.
Definitely agree....
fpliii
04-10-2014, 01:43 PM
See...I really like this.
Everyone here has been saying Lebron's defense hasn't been as good as it was the last few years.
And they are right...and it's hilarious that the stats everyone always rails on...actually show them to be right as Lebron is having a negative defensive rapm season.
His first one in years or perhaps ever iirc.
These stats are not perfect, but they take the noise out of plus/minus as best we can right now and talk how they impact their teams...
Like any stat...it's need to be put into proper context and compare players playing similar roles...etc.
:applause:
DMAVS41
04-10-2014, 01:55 PM
Everyone here in this thread will like this podcast on this subject;
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=10757408
And everyone should be forced to listen to this...people really need to stop being so ignorant about these stats. They have a lot of merit and just because people can't grasp what they are and what they are designed to do...doesn't mean they are worthless.
Inb4 Kblaze jumps in to tell us they don't talk like this at the barber shop...or that it's worthless because Amir Johnson grades out better than Kobe...LOL
Ignorance 101...
Everyone here in this thread will like this podcast on this subject;
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=10757408
And everyone should be forced to listen to this...people really need to stop being so ignorant about these stats. They have a lot of merit and just because people can't grasp what they are and what they are designed to do...doesn't mean they are worthless.
Inb4 Kblaze jumps in to tell us they don't talk like this at the barber shop...or that it's worthless because Amir Johnson grades out better than Kobe...LOL
Ignorance 101...
Thx for this:cheers:
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