Stats on playoff fatigue; Miami Heat a lock to threepeat?

[russwest0]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/good-news-you-won-game-7-bad-news-youre-less-likely-to-win-round-2/

Some really good shit here. They even go in depth explaining how this is even true for first seeds to dispel the myth that the stats only show this data because worse teams get taken to 7 games.

http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/silver-feature-pacertoast-1.png

http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/silver-feature-pacerstoast-2.png

This shows that the Heat should be heavy favorites to win it all this year because they will have played significantly less games before the Finals than whoever comes out of the West.

[Cocaine80s]

you dont need any stats. its pretty much guaranteed the heat are 3 peating. they look like they are on a whole other level right now. i finally realized that they really were coasting during the regular season

[russwest0]

you dont need any stats. its pretty much guaranteed the heat are 3 peating. they look like they are on a whole other level right now. i finally realized that they really were coasting during the regular season

well the stats show why they would be on this level

in round 2 for example, disregarding the talent difference and accounting for fatigue alone, the Heat have a 75% chance to win round 2.

[Im Still Ballin]

well the stats show why they would be on this level

in round 2 for example, disregarding the talent difference and accounting for fatigue alone, the Heat have a 75% chance to win round 2.

But it's due to how good they are as a team and not how fatigued their opponents are. Greatness my friend, bask in the glory of Sir James and the boys.

[5 rings fan]

Last year Spurs were the "win early cruise later" team
they choked hard though

[sbw19]

finals format change will be critical. Assuming no major injuries happen, I don't think the Heat will be able to beat the Spurs if they lose game 1, simply because the Spurs aren't going to lose 4 out of 5 or lose gm 7 at home.

[oarabbus]

well the stats show why they would be on this level

in round 2 for example, disregarding the talent difference and accounting for fatigue alone, the Heat have a 75% chance to win round 2.


I think it's better to say historically teams that sweep in 4 win in round 2 75% of the time. It's a slight distinction but there is one (the way you worded it is predictive), not large enough sample size to say the heat have a 75% chance to win.

In this particular case though, yeah I'm pretty sure the Heat are winning.

[Sarcastic]

They're the heavy favorites, but it's not because they swept the first round.

[oarabbus]

They're the heavy favorites, but it's not because they swept the first round.


Right, they swept the first round - because they're the heavy favorites. That's what I was getting at above too, we shouldn't mix up the cause and effect here.

[russwest0]

Right, they swept the first round - because they're the heavy favorites. That's what I was getting at above too, we shouldn't mix up the cause and effect here.

they swept the first round because their opponent was the lolcats

[oarabbus]

they swept the first round because their opponent was the lolcats

Yeah that too. We are both correct :oldlol:

[Relinquish]

It helps that Wade is fully healthy, and he sat out a ton of games in the regular season, so their win total is not as surprisingly low as it may seem.

[AintNoSunshine]

finals format change will be critical. Assuming no major injuries happen, I don't think the Heat will be able to beat the Spurs if they lose game 1, simply because the Spurs aren't going to lose 4 out of 5 or lose gm 7 at home.





I really don't understand why fans always analyse a series this way, if a team is good enough to reach the finals, they are good enough to win any given game on any given time in whichever arena.

[russwest0]

I really don't understand why fans always analyse a series this way, if a team is good enough to reach the finals, they are good enough to win any given game on any given time in whichever arena.

OKC had homecourt in 2012 and lost with less home games than the Heat got.

It makes a difference.

[russwest0]

welp, the stats continue to be proven right.

Heat coming off a sweep, Nets coming off 7 games, many people expect this to go 6 games but it could be less.

[triangleoffense]

No team has made 4 straight finals since the Russell celtics.. but damn the heat are good defensively. If any team does it it will be a legendary defensive team like the heat are on the wing and perimeter..

[russwest0]

No team has made 4 straight finals since the Russell celtics.. but damn the heat are good defensively. If any team does it it will be a legendary defensive team like the heat are on the wing and perimeter..

it helps a ton that they get a consistently easy path to the ECF. And this year even the ECF could be a walk in the park for them.

Plus they are stacked and efficient as **** on offense. A scary team, no doubt.

[triangleoffense]

it helps a ton that they get a consistently easy path to the ECF. And this year even the ECF could be a walk in the park for them.

Plus they are stacked and efficient as **** on offense. A scary team, no doubt.
Yea it's pretty ridiculous, the spurs are a damn tough matchup for the heat though and if they beat them twice in a row they will have an arch-rival worthy of a legendary 3-peat team.

[russwest0]

Even if the Pacers make it to the ECF it could be off of two 7 game series while the Heat could be coming off of 2 sweeps.

My Thunder have to go through arguably all of the other top 4 teams in the playoffs it they want to get to the chip.

meanwhile heat are breezing through scrubby teams. shit is ****ing insane.

[J Shuttlesworth]

Does this account for the fatigue the heat have to go through to make four straight finals? 4 straight is a tough accomplishment regardless of how shitty the conference is this year. That's still a ton of minutes over 4 seasons, especially for LeBron