The Odds That Cleveland Would Get The First Pick In 3 Out Of The Past 4 Years

[russwest0]

1 out of 13,466

[Cocaine80s]

rigged

[russwest0]

bump because another thread asked about this

[Kvnzhangyay]

So what would be the chance that it goes to Cleveland two years in a row then the Bucks or something get the pick?

[livinglegend]

As long as it s not 0, it s possible. What s the problem?

[Hamtaro CP3KDKG]

Sauce?

[rhowen4]

LeBron is ta'veren

[Yankstar]

:bowdown: God Gifts Cleveland so much but still all they get is shit. :rolleyes:

[Verticality]

What were the chances of them getting 4 in this last 11 years? I imagine that is even more rare considering many of those years the chance was 0 since they weren't in the lottery at all.

[russwest0]

The "problem" for all of you morons, is that each year keeps passing and the law of averages keeps getting defied giving strong signals at foul play as opposed to ACTUAL randomized generating of draft order for picks 1-3.

You have the Timberwolves who have had a 99% chance of moving up in the lottery yet have never done so while the Bulls and Cavaliers get the #1 pick with just a 1% chance of doing so...

We should see the worst team get the pick an average of every 4 years but in the 30 years of the lottery system the worst team has actually gotten it 4 times, which is good for 13% which is barely half of the 25%.

Listen, none of us logical people are expecting the lottery to go in exact order every year we are just expecting over a long period of time for the numbers to make sense in a statistical context. The problem is that they don't, at all.

[Yankstar]

:applause: :applause:
The "problem" for all of you morons, is that each year keeps passing and the law of averages keeps getting defied giving strong signals at foul play as opposed to ACTUAL randomized generating of draft order for picks 1-3.

You have the Timberwolves who have had a 99% chance of moving up in the lottery yet have never done so while the Bulls and Cavaliers get the #1 pick with just a 1% chance of doing so...

We should see the worst team get the pick an average of every 4 years but in the 30 years of the lottery system the worst team has actually gotten it 4 times, which is good for 13% which is barely half of the 25%.

Listen, none of us logical people are expecting the lottery to go in exact order every year we are just expecting over a long period of time for the numbers to make sense in a statistical context. The problem is that they don't, at all.

:applause:

NBA lottery = Rig Job

Rose to bulls and now this s**t

I am glad rose won't get in the HOF due to this rigging bulls**t :applause:

[livinglegend]

The "problem" for all of you morons, is that each year keeps passing and the law of averages keeps getting defied giving strong signals at foul play as opposed to ACTUAL randomized generating of draft order for picks 1-3.

You have the Timberwolves who have had a 99% chance of moving up in the lottery yet have never done so while the Bulls and Cavaliers get the #1 pick with just a 1% chance of doing so...

We should see the worst team get the pick an average of every 4 years but in the 30 years of the lottery system the worst team has actually gotten it 4 times, which is good for 13% which is barely half of the 25%.

Listen, none of us logical people are expecting the lottery to go in exact order every year we are just expecting over a long period of time for the numbers to make sense in a statistical context. The problem is that they don't, at all.

They makes sense in a statistical context as long as the odds are not 0. As soon as there 1 chance that a situation happens, then, it makes sense. Doesnt matter if it s 1 out of 100 or 1 out 1000000.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

Sauce?
You can calculate it yourself. It's not particularly hard.

[livinglegend]

I mean, I'm not going to sit here and tell you why the league benefits from Cleveland winning it. You can make a case for every team.

I'm just saying in our LIFETIME we should only see a team with a 1% chance win the lottery ONCE. And we've now seen two of them win it in just a 5 year span.

Why once exactly?
If it can happen once with a 1% chance then, it can happen second time also with the same 1% chance.

[russwest0]

livingpvssy I have you ignored but chose to read anyways.

So if I flip a coin a thousand times and get tails 999 of those times, it makes sense?

[russwest0]

I mean, I'm not going to sit here and tell you why the league benefits from Cleveland winning it. You can make a case for every team winning the lottery somehow benefiting the league.

I'm just saying in our LIFETIME we should only see a team with a 1% chance win the lottery ONCE. And we've now seen two of them win it in just a 6 year span.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

Improbable things happen all the time. Like OP makes a good post, Knicks have a winning season...etc.. Doesn't mean there is some rigging going on. Oilers picked #1 3 straight times in the NHL draft, is that rigged too?

[livinglegend]

livingpvssy I have you ignored but chose to read anyways.

So if I flip a coin a thousand times and get tails 999 of those times, it makes sense?

Yes, why not?
The chances of that happening is very very low, but it can still happen.

[Rose'sACL]

You can calculate it yourself. It's not particularly hard.
if you have read most of his posts then you would know that he probably never went to school.

[russwest0]

Improbable things happen all the time. Like OP makes a good post, Knicks have a winning season...etc.. Doesn't mean there is some rigging going on. Oilers picked #1 3 straight times in the NHL draft, is that rigged too?

the problem is when improbable things consistently happen like in the NBA draft lottery...

[russwest0]

Roses'ACL I'm about to finish up graduating from one of the top colleges in the US dipshit

[DaSeba5]

IDK what to tell Cav fans if they miss the playoffs again next year

[brantonli]

I mean, I'm not going to sit here and tell you why the league benefits from Cleveland winning it. You can make a case for every team winning the lottery somehow benefiting the league.

I'm just saying in our LIFETIME we should only see a team with a 1% chance win the lottery ONCE. And we've now seen two of them win it in just a 6 year span.

And is a 6 year span statistically significant? You are confusing law of large numbers with small numbers (in this case, you've only looked at the last 4-5 years).

[RoundMoundOfReb]

the problem is when improbable things consistently happen like in the NBA draft lottery...
When you combine so many isolated events EVERYTHING is improbable. What are the odds that today's Miami/Indiana game plays out EXACTLY like it did? Or even that the players make/miss the shots they got? like one in trillions.

[Magic731]

Yes, why not?
The chances of that happening is very very low, but it can still happen.
You don't sound surprised. If Lebron walked into your house and put his **** in your anus would you be surprised? I mean, it CAN happen, can't it?

[BlazerRed]

You don't sound surprised. If Lebron walked into your house and put his **** in your anus would you be surprised? I mean, it CAN happen, can't it?
I wish Bran would stick his dick in my anus (no homo).

[ace23]

Nope. You'd have to factor in the year that they didn't get it.

The answer would come out to about .022% or 1:4544.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

Nope. You'd have to factor in the year that they didn't get it.

The answer would come out to about .022% or 1:4544.
Was about to say this as well. The odds the OP posted are just of them winning in the exact 3 years they did.

[plowking]

Sure, but at the same time, this year their chance of getting it was 2 out of 100.

You're acting as if that was their chance just for this years draft lottery. Fact is, plenty of teams in their position have won it.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

Another example last 3 NBA championships:

Based on pre-season championship odds

2013 Heat - 5/11
2012 Heat - 2/5
2011 Mavs - 1/15

Combined that's just a 1.2% chance that these 3 teams would've won these 3 years. You can pretty much do this with anything.

[russwest0]

And is a 6 year span statistically significant? You are confusing law of large numbers with small numbers (in this case, you've only looked at the last 4-5 years).

I'm not saying that any of this is IMPOSSIBLE, I'm just saying I think people are taking for granted how rare all of these occurrences are. Like I said, we're supposed to see what happened today once in our lifetime yet we saw the same thing happen just 6 years ago with the Bulls.

The NBA doing it all behind closed doors after basically getting caught rigging the draft in 1985 when they did it live also adds to the shadyness as well.

[livinglegend]

You don't sound surprised. If Lebron walked into your house and put his **** in your anus would you be surprised? I mean, it CAN happen, can't it?

He didnt use the word surprised. Where did you come up with that?
And I m not a Lebron stan BTW.

[livinglegend]

Another example last 3 NBA championships:

Based on pre-season championship odds

2013 Heat - 5/11
2012 Heat - 2/5
2011 Mavs - 1/15

Combined that's just a 1.2% chance that these 3 teams would've won these 3 years. You can pretty much do this with anything.

He s too dumb to understand that.

[macmac]

LeBron is ta'veren

Sick Wheel of Time reference.

Big 3
Lebron Al' Thor
Chris Ayabara
Wade Cauthon

[russwest0]

Another example last 3 NBA championships:

Based on pre-season championship odds

2013 Heat - 5/11
2012 Heat - 2/5
2011 Mavs - 1/15

Combined that's just a 1.2% chance that these 3 teams would've won these 3 years. You can pretty much do this with anything.

1.2% is way different than 0.0000000000000000001% and regardless so many variables go into a certain team winning the NBA championship whereas the lottery is supposed to be strictly randomized based on set percentages.

[ace23]

Nope. You'd have to factor in the year that they didn't get it.

The answer would come out to about .022% or 1:4544.
Actually, I did this with the Cavs having a 2.8 % chance of winning in 2011. But they really had a 22.7 % chance according to a post I just read (had 2 picks) , so their chances of getting 3 #1 pick in the last 4 years would be:

.84% or 1:118. Really not that bad at all, well within the realm of possibility.

[ace23]

1.2% is way different than 0.0000000000000000001% and regardless so many variables go into a certain team winning the NBA championship whereas the lottery is supposed to be strictly randomized based on set percentages.
Read my above post.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

Actually, I did this with the Cavs having a 2.8 % chance of winning in 2011. But they really had a 22.7 % chance according to a post I just read (had 2 picks) , so their chances of getting 3 #1 pick in the last 4 years would be:

.84% or 1:118. Really not that bad at all, well within the realm of possibility.
/thread

[Rose'sACL]

Roses'ACL I'm about to finish up graduating from one of the top colleges in the US dipshit
are you CP3KDKG guy?

exposed because if you are not then i have no idea how you got into any good college when you can't even read properly.

[Legends66NBA7]

If Wiggins gets drafted by Cleveland, he's coming to Toronto in 4 years time unless the Cavaliers have turned into a contender.

[SamuraiSWISH]

Make it count, their past two #1 draft picks been busts. Irving is nice, but he's overrated.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

If Wiggins gets drafted by Cleveland, he's coming to Toronto in 4 years time unless the Cavaliers have turned into a contender.
http://blogs.miaminewtimes.com/riptide/assets_c/2013/12/lP42R-thumb-200x270.jpg

[oarabbus]

I'm not saying that any of this is IMPOSSIBLE, I'm just saying I think people are taking for granted how rare all of these occurrences are. Like I said, we're supposed to see what happened today once in our lifetime yet we saw the same thing happen just 6 years ago with the Bulls.

The NBA doing it all behind closed doors after basically getting caught rigging the draft in 1985 when they did it live also adds to the shadyness as well.


If the Knicks, Celtics, Lakers, or Bulls had landed the last 3 picks in a row, I'd say you're onto something.

But... Cleveland, man. The probability is miniscule but it's finite. More improbable things happen in life ALL the time. I mean the Cavs winning 3x in a row is hardly even notable compared to some of the other things witnessed in life. For example this guy Roy Sullivan was struck by lightning 7 times in his life.

"If the lightning strikes were independent events, the probability of being hit seven times would be 1:10000^7 = 1:10^28."

That's a .000000000000000000000000001% chance of happening. It happened.



Also, as brantonli pointed out you're misinterpreting the law of large numbers. You can't say something should only occur "once in our lifetime" if we can't use the normal distribution and the sample size is small.

[fourkicks44]

livingpvssy I have you ignored but chose to read anyways.

So if I flip a coin a thousand times and get tails 999 of those times, it makes sense?

Flip a coin a thousand times and the Lakers and Celtics still get Magic and Bird

Remember how the Spurs got Duncan? While this was probably legit and freak luck, lottery has been sour for a long time.

[Kblaze8855]

When you run the programs that factor in the actual odds things like this happen all the time. Not the same team but...teams that shouldn't win winning anyway. The odds are...whatever. The odds of a lot of things happening that happened are insane.

The odds of complex life existing on a planet dwarf anything related to this lottery. We don't question if reality is rigged(well...I suppose religious types do).

1 in 13 thousand? There are things that are 1 in 3-4 million that happen to individual people more than once......

Being the victim of a shark attack is like 1 in 4 million. I once saw a story of a guy who was attacked by a shark twice in his life...like 30 years apart. And he wasn't some surfer always in the ocean. Normal guy who barely even visited the beach. But it happened.

Things happen that defy the odds.

[fourkicks44]

When you run the programs that factor in the actual odds things like this happen all the time. Not the same team but...teams that shouldn't win winning anyway. The odds are...whatever. The odds of a lot of things happening that happened are insane.

The odds of complex life existing on a planet dwarf anything related to this lottery. We don't question if reality is rigged(well...I suppose religious types do).

1 in 13 thousand? There are things that are 1 in 3-4 million that happen to individual people more than once......

Being the victim of a shark attack is like 1 in 4 million. I once saw a story of a guy who was attacked by a shark twice in his life...like 30 years apart. And he wasn't some surfer always in the ocean. Normal guy who barely even visited the beach. But it happened.

Things happen that defy the odds.

http://www.andthefoul.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Dominique-Wilkins-on-Spurs.jpg

[Flash31]

So in conclusion

We ALL know the NBA is biased,and favors teams,players and tries to get what it wants at any cost

If you're saying the NBA is fair,balanced,neutral,has no influence,
then you are beyond stupid and naive.

NY gets Ewing
Chi gets Hometown guy with 1.7% chance
LeBron goes to hometown state
CP3 leaves NO and they get new owner---num 1 Pick
LeBron leaves the Cavs and Cavs suck---Num 1 Pick
Cavs still suck,Irving isn't LeBron,LeBron is winning---Num 1 Pick
Cavs still haven't found their "savior" and still suck,LeBron keeps winning and stories of LeBron to CLE keep getting pushed---Cavs get Num 1 Pick


I mean come on I realize LJ is a once in a generation type player and possible goat---But just how many draft picks is he worth to a team he left in Free Agency
It seems like Cavs keep getting draft picks to make up for LJ,and Cle sucking,LJ winning,and Cle being nothing since,LeBron to CLE makes a good story------or this is the luckiest team,organization EVER


You had less than a 3% chance,less than a 2% chance to win 1st pick and teams
with 25% chance of winning haven't won in Decades much yet win 3 in 4 with a 4th as well yet Cavs win
3 1sts in 4 Years AND a Top 4 Pick---Wtf?

The Bobcats and Nets an Timberwolves who have been terrible for longer NEVER got even close to those picks like that an they had even Higher Chances of actually doing it


Such,such obvious bullsht

No ones hating on Cavs but it's clear as day those odds along with history and Cavs history do not add up unless you include the words LeBron James into it

[Bandito]

So? It is still possible to get it no? Why would Silver rigg it for Cleveland of all places.

[DukeDelonte13]

So? It is still possible to get it no? Why would Silver rigg it for Cleveland of all places.



ding ding ding.


shoulda rigged it for LA, Boston, or Philly IMO.

[Flash31]

So? It is still possible to get it no? Why would Silver rigg it for Cleveland of all places.


Cle of All places hmm


Simple Simple Reason-----
LeBron James

Have you forgot about NY and Ewing,Chi and D Rose,
Cle with leBron,NO and the CP3 trade,LeBron leaving


It's obvious as hell why they would do it----
LeBron James.

[tmacattack33]

The "problem" for all of you morons, is that each year keeps passing and the law of averages keeps getting defied giving strong signals at foul play as opposed to ACTUAL randomized generating of draft order for picks 1-3.

You have the Timberwolves who have had a 99% chance of moving up in the lottery yet have never done so while the Bulls and Cavaliers get the #1 pick with just a 1% chance of doing so...

We should see the worst team get the pick an average of every 4 years but in the 30 years of the lottery system the worst team has actually gotten it 4 times, which is good for 13% which is barely half of the 25%.

Listen, none of us logical people are expecting the lottery to go in exact order every year we are just expecting over a long period of time for the numbers to make sense in a statistical context. The problem is that they don't, at all.

You're math is good.

But I don't think Cleveland is who the league would rig it for. Cleveland is not very big, and the suburbs around it are pretty small.

Here's a list of the biggest TV markets, it says Cleveland is only 17:
http://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets

[DukeDelonte13]

You're math is good.

But I don't think Cleveland is who the league would rig it for. Cleveland is not very big, and the suburbs around it are pretty small.

Here's a list of the biggest TV markets, it says Cleveland is only 17:
http://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets



Parma is one of the biggest suburbs in the entire country.

NEOHIO has like 4.3 million people in it, being 17th in the country isn't really that bad. With the way some posters talk they would think Cleveland is like 50th or something.

[dunksby]

LeBron is ta'veren
:lol :applause:

[I<3NBA]

considering that the odds for winning the lottery is even more mind boggling, and considering that some people still win the lottery anyway, the Cavs' winning 3 #1 out of 4 years is hardly eyebrow raising.

[D-FENS]

livingpvssy I have you ignored but chose to read anyways.

So if I flip a coin a thousand times and get tails 999 of those times, it makes sense?

Yes. You have a 50 percent chance of landing on tails. Each flip is reset to 50%, the previous flip does not have anything to do with the next flip. Just like the 2013 draft has nothing to do with the 2014 draft. Their odds are not tied together.

Stupid thread by a stupid troll.

[LoveTheNBA23]

I believe the year they drafted Irving, they also had the Clippers first round pick which gave them a significant probability boost in picking number one since they had two picks.

With all those high lotto picks, the Cavs should have had a quicker rebuild than the Thunder but the picks just haven't panned out. I think it is the inconsistent coaching in Cleveland that has players looking for a sense of direction and guidance.

[HoopsFanNumero1]

Actually, those numbers are off by around an order of magnitude...

Not surprising considering you're still in middle school.

[edrick]

I mean, I'm not going to sit here and tell you why the league benefits from Cleveland winning it. You can make a case for every team winning the lottery somehow benefiting the league.

I'm just saying in our LIFETIME we should only see a team with a 1% chance win the lottery ONCE. And we've now seen two of them win it in just a 6 year span.

What's the chance of someone being struck by lightning multiple times, or winning the lotto more than once? The odds are ridiculous, but it still happens.

[Draz]

So? It is still possible to get it no? Why would Silver rigg it for Cleveland of all places.
LeBron return home reunion of course.

[Relinquish]

Roses'ACL I'm about to finish up graduating from one of the top colleges in the US dipshit

Tell us then, what is this special college? :confusedshrug:

Because we all saw on your speedtest that you live in Oklahoma, and that thread happened during a time when it wasn't around any breaks. There are no top colleges in the US in Oklahoma.

[Jameerthefear]

Cavs are a joke.

[Uncle Drew]

Cavs are a joke.
You think you got another meltdown in you? Would be fun. Entertain us.

[russwest0]

Yes. You have a 50 percent chance of landing on tails. Each flip is reset to 50%, the previous flip does not have anything to do with the next flip. Just like the 2013 draft has nothing to do with the 2014 draft. Their odds are not tied together.

Stupid thread by a stupid troll.

lrn2lawofaverages

[Simple Jack]

The "problem" for all of you morons, is that each year keeps passing and the law of averages keeps getting defied giving strong signals at foul play as opposed to ACTUAL randomized generating of draft order for picks 1-3.

You have the Timberwolves who have had a 99% chance of moving up in the lottery yet have never done so while the Bulls and Cavaliers get the #1 pick with just a 1% chance of doing so...

We should see the worst team get the pick an average of every 4 years but in the 30 years of the lottery system the worst team has actually gotten it 4 times, which is good for 13% which is barely half of the 25%.

Listen, none of us logical people are expecting the lottery to go in exact order every year we are just expecting over a long period of time for the numbers to make sense in a statistical context. The problem is that they don't, at all.

The law of averages doesn't exist in the context you are using it idiot. Random events don't have memories of previous random events. Just because it was heads on a previous flip, doesn't make tails more likely this next flip.

Edit: A person already mentioned how stupid the OP is.

[nosfan773]

Roses'ACL I'm about to finish up graduating from one of the top colleges in the US dipshit

Let me guess you multiplied all these odds together http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2070607-cleveland-cavaliers-beat-slim-odds-to-win-nba-draft-lottery-3-of-past-4-years

2011 19.9%
2012 13.8%
2013 15.6%
2014 1.7%

Problem is those are the odds of Cleveland winning the #1 pick each year. They didn't win the #1 pick in 2012 so you did the math for 4 straight #1 picks. Might want to switch schools :rolleyes:

[shortsoptional]

Wonder if people would be more open to this idea after last nights event?

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nbas-possible-solution-for-tanking-good-bye-to-the-lottery-hello-to-the-wheel/

[blazersfan52]

LeBron is ta'veren
:applause: