Is Andrew Wiggins the second worst #1 overall pick ever?

[Bodhi]

He's not quite as bad as Bennett as a rookie, but he's close

Wiggins
PER: 8.6
TS%: .46
Winshares: -0.7

Bennett
PER: 6.9
TS%: .425
Winshares: -0.028

[BurningHammer]

They both got dumped on a tundra that is Minnesota Timberwolves. You still have to wait and see for at least 3 years to judge.

[Done_And_Done]

Not even close.

It's still farrrrrr to early to make such a bold statement.

[ProfessorMurder]

I always base plauer values off of those three stats. Thanks for agreeing OP.

[Bodhi]

Not even close.

It's still farrrrrr to early to make such a bold statement.
How is it not close?

So far Wiggins stats have been worse than any #1 overall pick in their rookie year other than Bennett

[Smook A.]

19 years old
20 pro games played

Averaging 12 ppg/3.6 rpg/1.3 apg/1.1 on 46% TS, and according to you he's already a bust :facepalm

[Genaro]

He's way better than Kwame as a rookie so he isn't the second worst.

[navy]

NBA players are so raw these days that he needs at least 3-4 years before we make any judgements.

[Done_And_Done]

19 years old
20 pro games played

Averaging 12 ppg/3.6 rpg/1.3 apg/1.1 on 46% TS, and according to you he's already a bust :facepalm

This.

Smook basically responded for me. I needn't say more...

[IncarceratedBob]

He just doesnt have the physical attributes required to be a real NBA player

[Real14]

How old are you man?:lol

[magmo68]

Really...is this the only attention getting post you could come up with?

[FireDavidKahn]

They both got dumped on a tundra that is Minnesota Timberwolves. You still have to wait and see for at least 3 years to judge.
Bennet's been really decent so far this year. He shouldn't be mocked anymore based on last season.

[FireDavidKahn]

As for Wiggins, he has upper tier athleticism and is a decent defender already. He also has a great step back jumper already as a rookie. After a few more years it will be one of the best moves in the NBA.

Obviously he isn't a finished project and everyone knew he was more raw than Embiid and Parker, and shouldn't be shocked that he isn't as effective as Parker. He still has problems being passive but his #1 issue is his handling. He can't do anything with it right now. It kills his game since he is essentially relegated to straight line drivers or having to take a step back jumper (which is ironically his strength). Because he can't handle the ball he can't assist since he basically cannot move with the ball.

Everything stems from ballhandling. If/when he can figure that out he will be an all star or even more.

All that people should expect from Wiggins right now in his rookie season is showing flashes of what he can do. Learning how to dribble and handle the ball better will be emphasized in the offseason.

[fpliii]

:facepalm

[SouBeachTalents]

I hate when people say "all-time" or "ever", then proceed to bring up only recent examples, and in this embarrassing case, literally the last two #1 picks, Bennett will have some steep competition for this distinction with Kwame Brown and Olowokandi. And the biggest #1 draft bust imo is LaRue Martin

[chocolatethunder]

As for Wiggins, he has upper tier athleticism and is a decent defender already. He also has a great step back jumper already as a rookie. After a few more years it will be one of the best moves in the NBA.

Obviously he isn't a finished project and everyone knew he was more raw than Embiid and Parker, and shouldn't be shocked that he isn't as effective as Parker. He still has problems being passive but his #1 issue is his handling. He can't do anything with it right now. It kills his game since he is essentially relegated to straight line drivers or having to take a step back jumper (which is ironically his strength). Because he can't handle the ball he can't assist since he basically cannot move with the ball.

Everything stems from ballhandling. If/when he can figure that out he will be an all star or even more.

All that people should expect from Wiggins right now in his rookie season is showing flashes of what he can do. Learning how to dribble and handle the ball better will be emphasized in the offseason.

I agree with everything you said and it'd almost verbatim what David Thorpe on Truhoop TV. Dunno if you watched that but he said the exact sw thing. He's one of the best athletes and he can shoot. When he learns how to dribble he'll be a lot different. I said that he would average no more than 16pts this year before the draft. He's already a very good defender. He's a kid and he's learning. He's going to be really good. Bennett too.

[jzek]

Remember when ppl are saying the Cavs shouldn't trade him for Love? :oldlol:

[jbryan1984]

A player needs at least three years before he can be dubbed a bust imo. All the experts said if you wanted someone NBA ready, go with Parker. So far, sure looks like the case. I still think Wiggins has potential to be great. Its unfair to judge him because people on here have been calling him the next LeBron for about 3 years, when he was still in high school.

[FKAri]

Ball handling is one of the hardest skills to develop as you get older. Even at 19 it's hard. He might never become even an average ball handler.

[MiseryCityTexas]

So far, his crack head daddy was a better player.

[IGOTGAME]

in before Wiggins goes off tonight!!

[noob cake]

Ball handling is one of the hardest skills to develop as you get older. Even at 19 it's hard. He might never become even an average ball handler.

This.

Maybe 1 out of 50 players "magically" gain superstar handles after entering the league. I don't think anyone in the history in the NBA with elite handles has had handles as raw as Wiggins' at age 19.

If you don't have NBA PG/1st option level handles at age 19/20, you'll probably never reach that level.

People were memorized by athleticism, but forgot that basketball is about dribbling and putting the ball through the hoop.

Wiggins is on pace to become a bust.

[navy]

Ball handling is one of the hardest skills to develop as you get older. Even at 19 it's hard. He might never become even an average ball handler.
This. Ball handling has a strong genetic coordination element.

[3ball]

Ball handling is one of the hardest skills to develop as you get older. Even at 19 it's hard. He might never become even an average ball handler.
:applause:

that being said, i think wiggins will be a solid pro and has some upside.. but he's canadian... so i think his focus is hampered a bit while he gets used to the exchange rate ;)

[FireDavidKahn]

Ball handling is one of the hardest skills to develop as you get older. Even at 19 it's hard. He might never become even an average ball handler.
Learning to shoot is exponentially harder than learning how to dribble

[FireDavidKahn]

in before Wiggins goes off tonight!!
:rockon: :applause:

[MastaKilla]

19 years old
20 pro games played

Averaging 12 ppg/3.6 rpg/1.3 apg/1.1 on 46% TS, and according to you he's already a bust :facepalm

bbb..bb..but PER, WS

[plowking]

This.

Maybe 1 out of 50 players "magically" gain superstar handles after entering the league. I don't think anyone in the history in the NBA with elite handles has had handles as raw as Wiggins' at age 19.

If you don't have NBA PG/1st option level handles at age 19/20, you'll probably never reach that level.

People were memorized by athleticism, but forgot that basketball is about dribbling and putting the ball through the hoop.

Wiggins is on pace to become a bust.

You know jack shit about basketball.

Even with his current play he is an average player, yet we are going to consider him a bust.

Kick rocks kid.

[dreamwarrior]

His shooting and ft % will improve next year. His 3p% is pretty good at .414. So worst case scenario he's going to score 15ppg next year. During his peak he's going to put up 18/5/2/1.5. So not exactly as good as the hype but solid and he may be a valuable journeyman. My biggest concern is his defense. He was hyped to have great defense and sure he is quick and has the physical gifts but he's not intimidating anyone with contact. If he keeps shying away from contact opponents are going to walk all over him.

[plowking]

His shooting and ft % will improve next year. His 3p% is pretty good at .414. So worst case scenario he's going to score 15ppg next year. During his peak he's going to put up 18/5/2/1.5. So not exactly as good as the hype but solid and he may be a valuable journeyman. My biggest concern is his defense. He was hyped to have great defense and sure he is quick and has the physical gifts but he's not intimidating anyone with contact. If he keeps shying away from contact opponents are going to walk all over him.

:facepalm

[noob cake]

You know jack shit about basketball.

Even with his current play he is an average player, yet we are going to consider him a bust.

Kick rocks kid.

Maybe you drooling over Wiggins will wash some of that salt off of you.

9 PER :facepalm

[noob cake]

His shooting and ft % will improve next year. His 3p% is pretty good at .414. So worst case scenario he's going to score 15ppg next year. During his peak he's going to put up 18/5/2/1.5. So not exactly as good as the hype but solid and he may be a valuable journeyman. My biggest concern is his defense. He was hyped to have great defense and sure he is quick and has the physical gifts but he's not intimidating anyone with contact. If he keeps shying away from contact opponents are going to walk all over him.

Most overrated defensive rookie by far.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/10/sort/RPM

43th worst player in the league based on adjusted real plus-minus. Negative defensive player.

[plowking]

Maybe you drooling over Wiggins will wash some of that salt off of you.

9 PER :facepalm

17/8/4 currently against the Blazers and he is only 19 years old.

We've seen far less capable players go on to be 20ppg scorers in the NBA. I'm not drooling over anyone. I'm just not stupid enough to count someone out based on 20 games in the season, especially when he has been known to be a slow starter wherever he goes.

[The_Yearning]

This.

Maybe 1 out of 50 players "magically" gain superstar handles after entering the league. I don't think anyone in the history in the NBA with elite handles has had handles as raw as Wiggins' at age 19.

If you don't have NBA PG/1st option level handles at age 19/20, you'll probably never reach that level.

People were memorized by athleticism, but forgot that basketball is about dribbling and putting the ball through the hoop.

Wiggins is on pace to become a bust.

Relax.

He can be the next PG.

KD still has bad handles.

[yeaaaman]

Typical ISH

[noob cake]

Relax.

He can be the next PG.

KD still has bad handles.

KD has elite handles for a SF at 6'10".

For every 50 failures, you get a PG. PG's rookie year was leaps and bounds better than Wiggins' year so far.

[plowking]

23/9/4 tonight, with 6 straight points down the stretch so far. Game got within 4 and Wiggins starting clutching up and making buckets. Not layups, but jumpers. :applause:

[noob cake]

23/9/4 tonight, with 6 straight points down the stretch so far. Game got within 4 and Wiggins starting clutching up and making buckets. Not layups, but jumpers. :applause:

Damn nice line. Maybe he'll push his PER back above 9 tonight

[plowking]

Damn nice line. Maybe he'll push his PER back above 9 tonight

What is PER? Can you explain it to me? Can you tell me why each category has the given value it does? Also explain to me why this is the correct way in judging a player.

[yeaaaman]

KD has elite handles for a SF at 6'10".

For every 50 failures, you get a PG. PG's rookie year was leaps and bounds better than Wiggins' year so far.

I don't get it, were you not around for the past year? What is it that YOU expected from Wiggins in his first month and a half.

[Collie]

He just needs to improve his free throw shooting.

Everything else will come with time. Hell, Clyde Drexler couldn't dribble the ball without looking down and he still got to the ring at will.

[noob cake]

What is PER? Can you explain it to me? Can you tell me why each category has the given value it does? Also explain to me why this is the correct way in judging a player.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/e/9/6/e96adf86b704014cab98f7fcb6ad04d3.png

Hollinger has set up PER so that the league average, every season, is 15.00, which produces sort of a handy reference guide:

A Year For the Ages: 35.0
Runaway MVP Candidate: 30.0
Strong MVP Candidate: 27.5
Weak MVP Candidate: 25.0
Bona fide All-Star: 22.5
Borderline All-Star: 20.0
Solid 2nd option: 18.0
3rd Banana: 16.5
Pretty good player: 15.0
In the rotation: 13.0
Scrounging for minutes: 11.0
Definitely renting: 9.0 <- Wiggins here
The Next Stop: DLeague 5.0

Career PER leaders
As of 22 April 2014
Rank Player PER
1. Michael Jordan* 27.91
2. LeBron James^ 27.79
3. Shaquille O'Neal 26.43
4. David Robinson* 26.18
5. Wilt Chamberlain* 26.13
6. Chris Paul^ 25.59
7. Bob Pettit* 25.35
8. Dwyane Wade^ 25.29
9. Neil Johnston* 24.69
10. Charles Barkley* 24.63
11. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar* 24.58
12. Tim Duncan^ 24.56
13. Kevin Durant^ 24.53
14. Magic Johnson* 24.11
15. Karl Malone* 23.90
16. Hakeem Olajuwon* 23.59
17. Larry Bird* 23.50
18. Dirk Nowitzki^ 23.48
19. Kobe Bryant^ 23.36
20. Oscar Robertson* 23.17
21. Yao Ming 23.02
22. Kevin Garnett^ 22.92
23. Jerry West* 22.89
24. Elgin Baylor* 22.69
25. Moses Malone* 22.31
26. Tracy McGrady 22.13
28. Dwight Howard^ 22.09
27. Amar'e Stoudemire^ 22.03
29. Dolph Schayes* 21.98
30. Julius Erving* 21.97
31. John Stockton* 21.83
32. George Gervin* 21.74
33. Bob Lanier* 21.69
34. Dominique Wilkins* 21.65
35. Clyde Lovellette* 21.55
36. Adrian Dantley* 21.51
37. Pau Gasol^ 21.49
38. Harry Gallatin* 21.48
39. Manu Ginobili^ 21.46
40. Alonzo Mourning* 21.24
41. Carmelo Anthony^ 21.17
42. Clyde Drexler* 21.07
43. Patrick Ewing* 21.01
44. Dan Issel* 20.99
45. Chris Webber 20.94
46. Allen Iverson 20.92
47. Al Jefferson^ 20.84
48. John Drew 20.74
49. Bob McAdoo* 20.73
50. Elton Brand^ 20.72

[Magic731]

Damn nice line. Maybe he'll push his PER back above 9 tonight
Watch a game instead of pulling out bullshit like per and adjusted plus minus that is all bullshit watch the game now and you will see Wiggins leading his team to a win over a western conference powerhouse.

[noob cake]

Too many Wigginstans in here.

Before he was drafted, he will be the next MJ, Tmac, Kobe

After his slow start, he is only 19. Judge him in 3 years.

At the end of this year, probably denial.

[Relinquish]

Wiggins with 23 points, 10 rebs, 4 asts, 2 stls on 9-16 shooting as the Wolves beat the Blazers.

OP with some good motivation for Wiggins tonight. :applause:

Thread backfire. :oldlol:

[plowking]

That didn't answer my question at all. I want you to explain to me what it is, why it is the correct way to judge basketball level, and why the categories are given each of these values.

I can find that info on the net myself. I want you to tell me why those values are being multiplied or divided by each other.

[noob cake]

Watch a game instead of pulling out bullshit like per and adjusted plus minus that is all bullshit watch the game now and you will see Wiggins leading his team to a win over a western conference powerhouse.

Wiggins: 5-18

That is a lot of leading there.

Try again ball boy.

[noob cake]

Wiggins with 23 points, 10 rebs, 4 asts, 2 stls on 9-16 shooting as the Wolves beat the Blazers.

OP with some good motivation for Wiggins tonight. :applause:

Thread backfire. :oldlol:

one game, over reaction much?

[Relinquish]

Too many Wigginstans in here.

Before he was drafted, he will be the next MJ, Tmac, Kobe

After his slow start, he is only 19. Judge him in 3 years.

At the end of this year, probably denial.

You are clueless. None of us are even fans of Wiggins, we just know a dumb ass OP when we see one. I like how you post on your alt so you can do damage control on your main. :roll:

[yeaaaman]

That didn't answer my question at all. I want you to explain to me what it is, why it is the correct way to judge basketball level, and why the categories are given each of these values.

I can find that info on the net myself. I want you to tell me why those values are being multiplied or divided by each other.

I don't think any GM gives a damn what his PER is. I'd also like to know what that guys expectations were for Wiggins first month and a half, everyone already knew he was going to be a work in progress. Nobody was going to draft him expecting him to turn their franchise around overnight, so I'm not sure what the deal is.

[noob cake]

That didn't answer my question at all. I want you to explain to me what it is, why it is the correct way to judge basketball level, and why the categories are given each of these values.

I can find that info on the net myself. I want you to tell me why those values are being multiplied or divided by each other.

Too advanced for you. I know you have 0 understanding of statistics, so I'm going to keep this simple.

In statistical modeling, we have a concept called backtesting/cross-validation.

The PER formula is essentially a linear combination of predictors. Model selection was used to determine a subset of coefficients that was most predictive of greatness (See MJ, Bron, Shaq, Admiral, Wilt in top 5).

[Magic731]

one game, over reaction much?
Just as much of an over reaction to his first 20 games out of 800 or so. The guy is a rookie he is not going to do thing night in night out but has shown he's capable.

[noob cake]

Just as much of an over reaction to his first 20 games out of 800 or so. The guy is a rookie he is not going to do thing night in night out but has shown he's capable.

One game is more predicative than twenty game average now?

That logic fail :facepalm

[Magic731]

Too advanced for you. I know you have 0 understanding of statistics, so I'm going to keep this simple.

In statistical modeling, we have a concept called backtesting/cross-validation.

The PER formula is essentially a linear combination of predictors. Model selection was used to determine a subset of coefficients that was most predictive of greatness (See MJ, Bron, Shaq, Admiral, Wilt in top 5).
What happened to just watching players dominate a basketball game? Why do we need all this advanced shit? I watched Wiggins tonight lead his team to a win over a west powerhouse I couldn't care less what some stupid formula spits out about his play.

[Dave3]

Too advanced for you. I know you have 0 understanding of statistics, so I'm going to keep this simple.

In statistical modeling, we have a concept called backtesting/cross-validation.

The PER formula is essentially a linear combination of predictors. Model selection was used to determine a subset of coefficients that was most predictive of greatness (See MJ, Bron, Shaq, Admiral, Wilt in top 5).
The only thing I've gathered from your posts so far is that you're

a. good at copying and pasting

and

b. using the internet to pretend to understand stuff you don't - if you actually understood what you were copying from some wiki article, you'd be able to explain it without jargon. The fact that you can't means you have no idea what you're saying.

[tontoz]

He's not quite as bad as Bennett as a rookie, but he's close

Wiggins
PER: 8.6
TS%: .46
Winshares: -0.7

Bennett
PER: 6.9
TS%: .425
Winshares: -0.028







http://new3.fjcdn.com/comments/No+dumbass+but+it+s+not+shallow+by+human+_9ae38180 2cb9fbe74cb446c14e919cdb.jpg

[juju151111]

He has potential and just lacks confidence/aggressiveness.

[Magic731]

One game is more predicative than twenty game average now?

That logic fail :facepalm
20 games is nothing compared to the hundreds he will likely play assuming he avoids injuries.

[Undisputed]

Greg Oden.

[noob cake]

The only thing I've gathered from your posts so far is that you're

a. good at copying and pasting

and

b. using the internet to pretend to understand stuff you don't - if you actually understood what you were copying from some wiki article, you'd be able to explain it without jargon. The fact that you can't means you have no idea what you're saying.

Your IQ is low. I can tell.

[yeaaaman]

One game is more predicative than twenty game average now?

That logic fail :facepalm

There's the problem with your whole statistical analysis Bill Nye - your sample size. That's as fail as any logic.

[plowking]

Too advanced for you. I know you have 0 understanding of statistics, so I'm going to keep this simple.

In statistical modeling, we have a concept called backtesting/cross-validation.

The PER formula is essentially a linear combination of predictors. Model selection was used to determine a subset of coefficients that was most predictive of greatness (See MJ, Bron, Shaq, Admiral, Wilt in top 5).

Far too advanced for my simple mind.

Yet you still can't tell me why those numbers are used the way they are. Literally telling me everything I know already about it, but can't tell me why.

Why is it -.1936(FTA-FT) at the end? Why not -.3425 instead?

[Dave3]

Your IQ is low. I can tell.
I see I'm dealing with a 12 year old...guess you'll fit right in on this website. Btw, remember to use phrases like "rent free" and "alpha" so we can see how awesome of a poster you are.

[noob cake]

There's the problem with your whole statistical analysis Bill Nye - your sample size.

Twenty game average is better than a point estimate, ie one game.

One of the biggest misconception is that a "small-sample" averages are useless. If you take the classical frequentest point of view, then you can consider every game as a sample drawn from some true distribution. As the number of samples (or games) increase, Wiggins' scoring average/apg/rpg will converge to the expectation of that distribution.

You'll be surprised to learn how much of modern science and medicine is based on both experimental and observational study with less than 20 samples.

[plowking]

This kid took one college class and thinks he can school us on this with his copy and paste jobs? :facepalm

You can't even explain to us why certain values are being used in the model you're talking about. :oldlol:

[noob cake]

Far too advanced for my simple mind.

Yet you still can't tell me why those numbers are used the way they are. Literally telling me everything I know already about it, but can't tell me why.

Why is it -.1936(FTA-FT) at the end? Why not -.3425 instead?

As I have explained above at a higher level...here it is again

Because it is the result from some ordinary least squared regression with PER = Beta_1*X_1 + Beta_1*X_2 + .... Beta_n*(FTA-FT). Beta_n in this case is that 0.19 number.

Assuming that Hollinger didn't know use some kind of ridge or lasso regression, then the 0.19 number serves to minimize the sum of residual square errors (RSE).

[noob cake]

This kid took one college class and thinks he can school us on this with his copy and paste jobs? :facepalm

You can't even explain to us why certain values are being used in the model you're talking about. :oldlol:

You are dumb as ****. I have a graduate degree in statistics and my work resolves around predictive modeling, nothing to do with NBA though.

Is PER and RPM end-all-be-all predictors of success? No, but they are multitudes better than unqualified opinions and observations from know-nothing fans and stans.

[plowking]

As I have explained above at a higher level...here it is again

Because it is the result from some ordinary least squared regression with PER = Beta_1*X_1 + Beta_1*X_2 + .... Beta_n*(FTA-FT). Beta_n in this case is that 0.19 number.

Assuming that Hollinger didn't know use some kind of ridge or lasso regression, then the 0.19 number serves to minimize the sum of residual square errors (RSE).

:oldlol:

Aye, seriously. Have fun on here. Hope you get through college.

[JtotheIzzo]

One of the biggest misconception is that a "small-sample" averages are useless. If you take the classical frequentest point of view, then you can consider every game as a sample drawn from some true distribution.

Here is a small sample for your ass.

Monday night 20+ points
Wednesday night 20+ points

Looks like your whole stance is a misconception.

Wiggins is good, getting better each game and will eventually be great.

Continue to hate and copy paste, it is hilarious.

[noob cake]

:oldlol:

Aye, seriously. Have fun on here. Hope you get through college.

I truly feel bad for you. Enjoy your life.

[Levity]

my god, noob cake is trying really hard to get people to think wiggins in a bust in this thread. yet, he doesnt get that no one fcking cares.

:lol

[Bernie Nips]

As I have explained above at a higher level...here it is again

Because it is the result from some ordinary least squared regression with PER = Beta_1*X_1 + Beta_1*X_2 + .... Beta_n*(FTA-FT). Beta_n in this case is that 0.19 number.

Assuming that Hollinger didn't know use some kind of ridge or lasso regression, then the 0.19 number serves to minimize the sum of residual square errors (RSE).

This doesn't make sense.

[JtotheIzzo]

PG's rookie year was leaps and bounds better than Wiggins' year so far.

was it?

[wakencdukest]

The dude is a year and a half out of high school. News flash: most players that young are going to need a few years to develop.

[Legends66NBA7]

I see I'm dealing with a 12 year old...guess you'll fit right in on this website. Btw, remember to use phrases like "rent free" and "alpha" so we can see how awesome of a poster you are.

:oldlol:

[D-FENS]

Meth is a hell of a drug

[noob cake]

Bookmarked for next year. Never seen so many delusional lunatics in one thread.

[Collie]

Bookmarked for next year. Never seen so many delusional lunatics in one thread.

I only see one.

[JtotheIzzo]

Bookmarked for next year. Never seen so many delusional lunatics in one thread.

that is cute.

second worst #1 pick ever (though he won rookie of the month in his very first month).

worse rookie year than PG's (though he is near doubling him in PPG)

makes the thread on the day of Wiggins second straight 20+ point game, where he put Nic Batum in a Chinese finger lock, and put the game out of reach down the stretch.

BUT BUT BUT ..... WAIT!!!!!!!

He is a stats major, and he think PER is the ONLY stat (even though this stat will surely change as the season progresses).

Noob Cake is basically the basketball version of a conspiracy theorist, he ignores the mountains of data to the contrary and sticks to the one little blemish he found, and holds it dearly over all others.

In other words, a head in the sand retard.

[ThatCoolKid]

The only thing I've gathered from your posts so far is that you're

a. good at copying and pasting

and

b. using the internet to pretend to understand stuff you don't - if you actually understood what you were copying from some wiki article, you'd be able to explain it without jargon. The fact that you can't means you have no idea what you're saying.

His explanation is easily understood by anyone whose taken introductory linear algebra and statistics.

[CarlosBoozer]

Highlights from his 23/10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PT2uHw9l5yc

[ThatCoolKid]

As I have explained above at a higher level...here it is again

Because it is the result from some ordinary least squared regression with PER = Beta_1*X_1 + Beta_1*X_2 + .... Beta_n*(FTA-FT). Beta_n in this case is that 0.19 number.

Assuming that Hollinger didn't know use some kind of ridge or lasso regression, then the 0.19 number serves to minimize the sum of residual square errors (RSE).

This doesn't make any sense. You can't regress PER versus all of these statistics unless you knew PER values for different players before the regression.

[bdreason]

He looked pretty good on Gametime highlights tonight.

[noob cake]

This doesn't make any sense. You can't regress PER versus all of these statistics unless you knew PER values for different players before the regression.

PER coefficients needs to be recalibrate with new coefficients. During this calibration process, you do have a target PER for your dependent variable.

Initially, PER was probably just some empirical formula Hollinger came up with that could accurately capture and predict performance. I'm guessing Holliger got started regressing performance statistics with some measure of success, then the coefficients are taken and linearly transformed/scaled to create PER. Hollinger PER is conceptually extremely simple when compared to something like RPM, which is actually based on Bayesian statistics and involves time dependent weighting and subjective priors. I can't imagine the outcry when these stans realize that a component of RPM is completely subjective.

[ThatCoolKid]

PER coefficients needs to be recalibrate with new coefficients. During this calibration process, you do have a target PER for your dependent variable.

Initially, PER was probably just some empirical formula Hollinger came up with that could accurately capture and predict performance. I'm guessing that it about through regressing performance statistics with some measure of success, then the coefficients are taken and linearly transformed/scaled to create PER. Hollinger PER is conceptually extremely simple when compared to something like RPM, which is actually based on Bayesian statistics and involves time dependent weighting and subjective priors. I can't imagine the outcry when these stans realize that a component of RPM is completely subjective.

Ah, gotcha. What sort of modeling work do you do? I'm supposed to learn Bayesian stats in my upper level stats course next semester. I know Bayes rule, but I don't really have a good idea of what Bayesian stats is other than that it is the counterpoint to frequentist statistics.

[ronnymac]

Edd O banan

[plowking]

Highlights from his 23/10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PT2uHw9l5yc

Look at that midrange game. :applause:

I thought this kid couldn't shoot and wasn't skilled? His whole point output has basically been the midrange this year.

Wait until he learns how to get to the hoop in the NBA. Open his whole game up.

[noob cake]

Ah, gotcha. What sort of modeling work do you do? I'm supposed to learn Bayesian stats in my upper level stats course next semester. I know Bayes rule, but I don't really have a good idea of what Bayesian stats is other than that it is the counterpoint to frequentist statistics.

Finance

[T_L_P]

Definitely not, but I always said this draft class would be underwhelming. It may be too early to tell, but there is maybe one franchise player in the whole class (Embiid but I'm skeptical, two if you count think Parker can get there, which I sorta do).

[SugarHill]

Look at that midrange game. :applause:

I thought this kid couldn't shoot and wasn't skilled? His whole point output has basically been the midrange this year.

Wait until he learns how to get to the hoop in the NBA. Open his whole game up.

Great game

23/10 in a win over one of the best teams in the conference with great shooting. Not bad for a bust. :applause:

[tontoz]

In his last two games he has 44 points, 16 rebounds and 8 assists.

[MP.Trey]

Why was this thread not deleted the day it was made? So ridiculous. :oldlol:

[TheGreatDeraj]

Okay, I've seen Wiggins against the Lakers, I've seen saw the highlights of his 28 point game and now these highlights.

Kid has a nice post game and midrange. Plus, he can score off the dribble with a jumpshot or take contact and finish in the paint.

Wiggins is nice, kinda reminds me of Kobe.

[Jailblazers7]

Honestly can't believe that this thread ended up discussing the statistics formulas of PER and RPM. :oldlol:

[hawksdreamfan44]

See: LaRue Martin

[NustABut]

In an alternate universe where Michael Olowokandi doesn't exist, Wiggins still doesn't come close to being anywhere near the worst 1st overall picks

[senelcoolidge]

LaRue Martin is the worse #1 pick ever.
http://dimemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/LaRue-Martin.png

Give Wiggins time. He will be a fine player, just not All Star caliber. Bennett will be worse than Wiggins. Bennett is playing better but I don't think he will be much better than what you see now.

[veilside23]

Cant freaking believe that they are calling wiggins a bust... I can name players that are far worst than wiggins during their first year. But i would just be rational and logical on my post.

Kawhi Leonard - dude was just basically a hustle guy with big hands and athleticism and yet he was able to do well in the FINALS just in his 2nd year in the nba.

PG - Who has better handles than AW but that's just about it. Who in 3 years became a superstar in this League.

Demar Derozan - who only averaged 8.6 pts and 3 rbs as a rookie


I dont understand why people say he is the worst ever unless you only watch basketball 2 years ago.

[MiseryCityTexas]

we're gonna go back to bashing him once he plays like crap again.

[Milbuck]

Definitely not, but I always said this draft class would be underwhelming. It may be too early to tell, but there is maybe one franchise player in the whole class (Embiid but I'm skeptical, two if you count think Parker can get there, which I sorta do).
Parker is without a doubt a franchise player. I've seen almost every game he's played and:

- Our point guards outside of Kendall Marshall suck dick at being point guards. They rarely make a conscious effort to find Jabari even though he's clearly a top 2 scoring option on the team, and even when he's hot they eventually freeze him out of the offense
- Kidd's rotations and minute management is puzzling to say the least. Jabari will have terrific stretches, and then either Kidd will take out him randomly or the team will go another direction inexplicably.

Case in point..against the Heat last week he had 12 points in the first Q...ends sitting the next 10 minutes and they go completely away from him the rest of the game. Anyone who looks at the box score will just say "14 points. meh." Despite Jabari being phenomenal that game and being as good as anyone on the court that night not named Dwyane Wade.

Everyone assumed Jabari would just have the green light and could chuck like prime Iverson, but in reality the circumstances are FAR different..the fact that he's at 13 ppg right now is pretty ****ing impressive under the circumstances. Under the circumstances everyone expected...being able to do whatever he wanted on a garbage team..he'd easily be the 16-18 ppg player people expected him to be. Hell, he's been trending upwards and it's only a matter of time before the team and Kidd give him the ball more, he could end up at 16 ppg anyways.

His skill set and scoring arsenal is extremely advanced for his age, and combination of size and deceptive explosiveness, body control, feel for the game, ball handling, etc is straight from the top shelf. I see absolutely no way he doesn't become a consistent 20 ppg scorer at the least, most likely more.

[Bodhi]

Cant freaking believe that they are calling wiggins a bust... I can name players that are far worst than wiggins during their first year. But i would just be rational and logical on my post.

Kawhi Leonard - dude was just basically a hustle guy with big hands and athleticism and yet he was able to do well in the FINALS just in his 2nd year in the nba.

PG - Who has better handles than AW but that's just about it. Who in 3 years became a superstar in this League.

Demar Derozan - who only averaged 8.6 pts and 3 rbs as a rookie


I dont understand why people say he is the worst ever unless you only watch basketball 2 years ago.

Which one of those guys were #1 overall picks?

[La Frescobaldi]

LaRue Martin is the worse #1 pick ever.
http://dimemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/LaRue-Martin.png

Give Wiggins time. He will be a fine player, just not All Star caliber. Bennett will be worse than Wiggins. Bennett is playing better but I don't think he will be much better than what you see now.

Portland chose that dude over Bob freaking McAdoo AND Dr. J............

[fpliii]

Portland chose that dude over Bob freaking McAdoo AND Dr. J............
Because of one game against Walton. :D

[veilside23]

Which one of those guys were #1 overall picks?


YES none of them is the #1pick but if you are check how good they are now compared to AW wiggins rookie season .. you cant simply say he is a bust... The only rookie who average 20 10 in this era is blake griffin not even lebron james did that... and even if BG is an all star.. you cant say that he would improve leaps and bounds the same way that Wiggins can . Because out of the players i have mentioned in my previous post. If Derozan, PG and Leonard can be great players i dont see why AW can't. I can give you at least 5 #1 picks who didnt become all stars. Am sure Wiggins will become multiple time all star... Guy is a 2 way player already.

[tontoz]

In his last 5 games Wiggins is averaging 21 ppg shooting 50%.

[BuffaloBill]

No he isn't

[hawksdogsbraves]

How is fat boy Bennett doing these days? Haven't heard much from him this year.

[24-Inch_Chrome]

Second worst first overall pick?

Bargniani, Kwame, Olowokandi?

At the very least he'll win RoY, which moves him above all of those scrubs. Plus any judgement on Wiggins is premature, he's played less than half a season so far, while other busts established themselves by having terrible careers.

[Fudge]

Dat thread backfire. :oldlol:

Eat shit, OP.

[Mr. Jabbar]

Dat thread backfire. :oldlol:

Eat shit, OP.


:roll:

[LoneyROY7]

:roll: :roll: :roll:

[Leftimage]

Is this the second worst ISH prediction of all time?

[AnaheimLakers24]

Dat thread backfire. :oldlol:

Eat shit, OP.
:roll:

[WWRWestbrookDo?]

He's not quite as bad as Bennett as a rookie, but he's close

Wiggins
PER: 8.6
TS%: .46
Winshares: -0.7

Bennett
PER: 6.9
TS%: .425
Winshares: -0.028

I wonder how many calories ISH posters burn from jumping to conclusions everyday.

[Spurs5Rings2014]

Dat thread backfire. :oldlol:

Eat shit, OP.

:lol

[RedBlackAttack]

Wiggins is looking pretty awesome. I'm happy for him, even if it ends up looking bad on the Cavaliers. Seems like a good guy... and a guy I was in favor of keeping, btw.

[Eric Cartman]

Is this the second worst ISH prediction of all time?

3rd behind Dirk will never win a title by CJ Mustard and Kyrie will be a bust be PleezeBelieve.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

Second worst 1st overall pick in the last 2 years maybe.

[JtotheIzzo]

The mountains of Noob Cake fail in this thread is amazingly entertaining. Who knew one man could be so dumb?