US: strongest growth in 11 years

[KevinNYC]

Revised GDP numbers: 5% growth in the third quarter[QUOTE]The U.S. economy posted its strongest growth in 11 years during the third quarter, supported by robust consumer spending and business investment.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was up from the second quarter

[KevinNYC]

The revised numbers were higher than expected and this drove the stock market over 18,000. (http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-rise-ahead-of-economic-data-1419340399)


U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, carrying the Dow industrials above 18000 for the first time, after data showed the American economy posted its strongest growth in more than a decade.

The Dow’s crossing of 18000 is the latest milestone in the nearly six-year bull market. A close above 18,000 on Tuesday would mark the fifth-quickest 1,000 point rise for the blue-chip index. The fastest 1,000-point rise was in 1999, when the Dow jumped to 11,000 in just 24 trading days. Going into Tuesday’s rally, it has been 119 trading days since the blue chips broke 17000.

[Velocirap31]

You guys are killing it and you don't rely on anything in particular, like some countries rely on oil. So a low crude price is a drop in the bucket.

[nathanjizzle]

go america, we got this for the next 500 years, until aliens take over.

[KevinNYC]

You guys are killing it and you don't rely on anything in particular, like some countries rely on oil. So a low crude price is a drop in the bucket.
We rely on oil regionally, but not nationally.

It's more than a drop in a bucket, a drop in the price of oil should be an overall boon to the economy. If business and households pay less to heat their homes and transport themselves/their products, more money is left for other spending.

Just saw this about this recovery. Business investment is back higher than it was prior to the crash. Housing is still a drag, but businesses are growing.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2014/12/23/opinion/122314krugman1/122314krugman1-tmagArticle.png

I'm hoping this keeps going and we see more jobs in 2015 AND higher wages to existing jobs.

[Velocirap31]

This is probably a good time for the US to raise it's minimum wage.

[KevinNYC]

Gas prices continue to drop on a daily basis. In fact, the price of gas has fallen for 89 consecutive days.
The streak, the longest on record according to AAA, has shaved nearly $1 off the national average price of regular gas, taking it to $2.38 a gallon for the first time in five years. September 25 was the last day prices were higher for drivers. That day they increased by only a tenth of a cent. Prices have tumbled 36% since the high of the year, which was back in late April.
wow (http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/23/news/economy/lower-gas-price-streak/)

[longhornfan1234]

It's amazing to me that Kevin wants to take a single GDP print and try to paint a picture. It's a misleading one. The economy is supposed to get better after a recession. It's a cycle. Well there are a few things. Buying up treasuries and toxic securitized products of banks balance sheets is a win for the banks. Zero interest rates for a half a decade is a win for companies that can finance debt on the cheap. It's also a win for the gov't who can borrow without interest. Growth should be up, there is a reason it is called 'expansionary monetary policy cause it is supposed to expand the economy.

It's not really a win for the average American though. No real wage growth for a half decade, first time home buyers not entering the market as they are tied up with student debt, and an increasing wage gap all spell trouble for the middle class.Which... if I recall... is what we were talking about in 2008.... no? Main Street versus those Fat Cats on Wall Street... right? Funny how that has changed. Also.... Q1 GDP was a negative print of 2% so it isn't all on the up and up. This is a great print for the US economy... but let's just look back to last year or the year prior. We are mulling along at a 2% growth rate which for a recovery after a recession is pretty unusual.... especially considering the historical accommodative policies by the FED. We've had GDP growth at 4-4.5% for a quarter before. It's just a quarter. Don't post links or use quotes from those links, Kevin. Use your thoughts, pal.

[KyleKong]

Obama has basically nothing to do with this, let alone the whole economy.
Turning this into a political thread :rolleyes:

[The Real JW]

When should I begin shorting the Dow stocks?

[KevinNYC]

It's amazing to me that Kevin wants to take a single GDP print and try to paint a picture. It's a misleading one. The economy is supposed to get better after a recession. It's a cycle. Well there are a few things. Buying up treasuries and toxic securitized products of banks balance sheets is a win for the banks. Zero interest rates for a half a decade is a win for companies that can finance debt on the cheap. It's also a win for the gov't who can borrow without interest. Growth should be up, there is a reason it is called 'expansionary monetary policy cause it is supposed to expand the economy.

It's not really a win for the average American though. No real wage growth for a half decade, first time home buyers not entering the market as they are tied up with student debt, and an increasing wage gap all spell trouble for the middle class.Which... if I recall... is what we were talking about in 2008.... no? Main Street versus those Fat Cats on Wall Street... right? Funny how that has changed. Also.... Q1 GDP was a negative print of 2% so it isn't all on the up and up. This is a great print for the US economy... but let's just look back to last year or the year prior. We are mulling along at a 2% growth rate which for a recovery after a recession is pretty unusual.... especially considering the historical accommodative policies by the FED. We've had GDP growth at 4-4.5% for a quarter before. It's just a quarter. Don't post links or use quotes from those links, Kevin. Use your thoughts, pal.

Mr. Dunning

[KevinNYC]

Stating facts isn't political. The president has minimal effect on the economy.I wouldn't say minimal, but I would definitely say that his effect is vastly overrated.

But would a president Rand Paul or Paul Ryan have appointed Janet Yellen to head the FED?

[DonDadda59]

Thanks a lot, Obama :mad: :rolleyes:

[DonDadda59]

Hows the acting :yaohappy:

I don't understand your question.

[MavsSuperFan]

Obama is one of the great domestic presidents.
Somewhat below average foreign policy, but more than makes up for it with his domestic policy.

Still to be fair this growth has really only benefited the rich and wall street.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/12/smart-chart-the-black-white-wealth-gap-widened-during-the-great-recession/


Smart Chart: The black-white wealth gap widened during the Great Recession

the average African-American household takes home around 40 percent less income than a similar white family. The gap between non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics (who can belong to any race) is just over 30% (Excel file).

But racial income inequality pales in comparison to the racial gap in net worth — in household wealth accumulated through one’s lifetime and passed from generation to generation — especially between whites and blacks. It’s the living legacy of hundreds of years of structural racism in our past.

And, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center, that wealth gap has grown significantly since Wall street crashed the economy…

From 2010 to 2013, the median wealth of non-Hispanic white households increased from $138,600 to $141,900, or by 2.4%. Meanwhile, the median wealth of non-Hispanic black households fell 33.7%, from $16,600 in 2010 to $11,000 in 2013. Among Hispanics, median wealth decreased by 14.3%, from $16,000 to $13,700.

They offer a number of possible explanations for the disparity. Foremost among them is that financial wealth — stocks, bonds and the like — has recovered much more rapidly than housing wealth, and whites are far more likely than blacks or Latinos to own those kinds of financial assets, either directly or through their retirement accounts.

Ironically Obama's presidency has economically benefited the groups least likely to vote for him and the empirical evidence shows taht groups most likely to vote for him have seen reductions in their net worth and incomes (on a real inflation adjusted dollar basis).

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Screen-Shot-2014-12-15-at-3.31.16-PM-800x430.jpg



Based on those pictures you can see that all groups are not doing as well as they were before the recession. Almost all of the economic benefits of the recent growth is taken by elites of this nation

[Dresta]

:rolleyes: Kevin and his aggregated statistics. You would have thought that someone who posts so much about economics would at least know about the broken window fallacy. Do you know how easy these statistics are to manipulate? Have you not seen how they've claimed to cut the debt without actually doing so (just moving the money to a place where it doesn't count as debt)? JEE-SUS CHRIST you are one credulous mother****er.

'strongest growth in 11 years' - seriously, what does that even mean? Debt-fuelled consumption does not produce sustainable growth, even if it boosts the GDP stat.


All this started after the fed ended quantitative easing, so this post is basically 100% inaccurate.
And yes, it is a win for the average American. Hiring is seeing its first real big growth in a long time.Thanks for proving you know nothing about quantitative easing (which hasn't really been 'stopped', only reigned in, and which doesn't immediately stop impacting the economy after being halted).

Even Mavs is admitting this 'growth' has benefited the rich; though how this makes Obama a 'all-time great domestic President' is somewhat beyond my comprehension.



Based on those pictures you can see that all groups are not doing as well as they were before the recession. Almost all of the economic benefits of the recent growth is taken by elites of this nation
Been saying that on here for ages. Amazing some are still denying it.

[bagelred]

The country is finally getting its shit together.

Well, time to put a Bush in the White House to ruin it all. Cause dem libruls are just socialist, commie stoopid heads.

[Dresta]

The country is finally getting its shit together.

Well, time to put a Bush in the White House to ruin it all. Cause dem libruls are just socialist, commie stoopid heads.
The recovery policies under Obama was simply a continuation of policies undertaken by the Bush administration, with the same FED reserve chairman at the helm.

It's all driven by political short-termism, a consequence of centralised democratic power. Of course the numbers are going to look good when you can keep kicking economic realignment into the future, as you get other countries to but up your debt. Looking out numbers without bothering to consider what is behind them is an exercise in futility.

[Dresta]

Sounds like more austrian shit with absolutely no evidence to back it up.
Austrian? Learn your history of political thought before spouting such bs, seriously. The idea was at least around in the time of Hume (long before the Austrian economic school), and present in Tocqueville, Mill, and pretty much every sensible political thinker. It is pretty much a truism when it comes to politics, especially when politicians control the economic sphere.

Again, you know nothing about Austrian economics other than the slanders you have read in Krugman's op-ed pieces (perhaps Brad DeLong too). This is not having your own opinion, it is copying someone else's.

Have you read any Austrian economists even (i very much doubt it, twould be to difficult for you)? So why deign to talk about it then, as if you had even the simplest understanding of what it entail?

Aggregated, distorted and inaccurate statistics are not 'evidence' - you don't even understand what this word means, apparently. A model that doesn't come close to replicating real world conditions, and that is based on assumptions that are never true, is again, not evidence.

Then again, poorly educated plebs have always been slaves to statistics - that's probably their primary function (in politics, anyway): helping morons to embrace their own servitude.

As for QE, well yeah, it's officially 'stopped' except MBS purchases have only been reduced from $5 billion a month to $4 billion, instead relabelling them as 'reinvestments' so most don't even notice. Tis what is done with all government economic statistics, so you should stop considering them to be 'evidence.'

Gonna bookmark this thread so i can laugh in your faces when the inevitable QE4 comes into force.

[HitandRun Reggie]

Amazing since Europe's economy is still in the toilet and China economy has at it's slowest pace since the financial crisis.

http://www.cinemablend.com/images/news_img/24481/list_24481.jpg

[GimmeThat]