Wait so 56.3% = 37.5% ?????

[Mass Debator]

56.3% 2 point scorer = 37.5% 3 point scorer

9/16 = 18 points
6/16 = 18 points

Let's say all these are jump shots and no free throws are taken...
Same TS% so same player worth? 50% also = 33%...

:biggums: :confusedshrug:

[Kvnzhangyay]

hence why so many teams are utilizing the 3-pointer now

[eklip]

Pretty much.

50% from the field without any FTs and 3PA isn't very efficient (1 point per shot). The same is true for 33% from 3-point range.

Players who shoot a lot of 2-pointers usually get to the FT line more often than 3-point shooters. That's why people should use TS% instead of eFG%.

[Darius]

There are a lot of factors like where rebounds fall on different types of shots, how often players get fouled in certain areas etc etc

[oarabbus]

56.3% 2 point scorer = 37.5% 3 point scorer

9/16 = 18 points
6/16 = 18 points

Let's say all these are jump shots and no free throws are taken...
Same TS% so same player worth? 50% also = 33%...

:biggums: :confusedshrug:


Yes, that's why a 38% 3pt shooter is considered an excellent 3pt shooter.

[aj1987]

So, the 3pt shooter is giving 3 extra possessions to the opposition?

[oarabbus]

So, the 3pt shooter is giving 3 extra possessions to the opposition?

Not if they're shooting 38%. Check your math... even a 33% shooter is not "giving 3 extra possessions to the opposition". Silly comment.

Also they provide floor spacing which improves their entire offense.

[bigkingsfan]

More misses, more fastbreak opportunities for opposing team.

[Myth]

56.3% 2 point scorer = 37.5% 3 point scorer

9/16 = 18 points
6/16 = 18 points

Let's say all these are jump shots and no free throws are taken...
Same TS% so same player worth? 50% also = 33%...

:biggums: :confusedshrug:

And then the 3 point shooting team's fans complain that they didn't get as many free throws, so the game must have been rigged.

[Myth]

More misses, more fastbreak opportunities for opposing team.

More misses, and the bricks bounce further, making it easier to start the break. And as I hinted at in my previous post, you don't draw fouls shooting 3s. In a vaccuum 6/16 for 18 points sounds about the same, but the team shooting 2s will also draw fouls that lead to even higher TS% in most cases because of free throws.

[tontoz]

A team with multiple 3 point threats forces the defense to cover more ground. All that scrambling by the defense makes it easier to get to the rim. Better spacing leads to more open shots.

Let's not forget that long rebounds make it easier for the offense to get another possession.

[yeaaaman]

More misses, and the bricks bounce further, making it easier to start the break. And as I hinted at in my previous post, you don't draw fouls shooting 3s. In a vaccuum 6/16 for 18 points sounds about the same, but the team shooting 2s will also draw fouls that lead to even higher TS% in most cases because of free throws.

Yup. Long range jumpers, particularly 3's often tend to lead to fast breaks especially when you aren't balanced offensively. But like someone else said there's so many advanced breakdowns that its almost hard to even discuss with much certainty, that's why they pay stat nerds to crunch all the numbers and scenarios.

[yeaaaman]

It isn't just about the scoring. A team with multiple 3 point threats forces the defense to cover more ground. All that scrambling by the defense makes it easier to get to the rim. Better spacing leads to more open shots.

Let's not forget that long rebounds make it easier for the offense to get another possession.

The thing is, where's the happy medium. Or the exact optimum balance, it would change depending on whose on the court on offense and as well who the opponent is. My take, analytics are important, but basketball isn't a science, and players are and will never operate like robots.

Best to just come up with a philosophy as a team that fits your personnel and get really really good at executing your game plan and see how far it takes you.

[NZStreetBaller]

theirs almost no point in taking contested 2 pointers now days lol. might as well shoot 3s or get it in the paint. or open 2s

EDIT:just realised how stupidly obvious i sounded haha

[tontoz]

The thing is, where's the happy medium. Or the exact optimum balance, it would change depending on whose on the court on offense and as well who the opponent is. My take, analytics are important, but basketball isn't a science, and players are and will never operate like robots.

Best to just come up with a philosophy as a team that fits your personnel and get really really good at executing your game plan and see how far it takes you.


The numbers don't lie. The best shots are at the rim 1st, from 3 2nd. There aren't many guys who shoot well from 5-22 feet. Elite shooters like Dirk/Curry can shoot 50% in that range. Most guys shoot closer to 40.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shot_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=&match=single&year_id=2015&is_playoffs=N&team_id=&opp_id=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&shot_pts=&is_make=&shot_type=&shot_distance_min=5&shot_distance_max=22&q1=Y&q2=Y&q3=Y&q4=Y&q5=Y&time_remain_minutes=12&time_remain_seconds=0&time_remain_comp=le&margin_min=&margin_max=&c1stat=&c1comp=ge&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=ge&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=ge&c3val=&order_by=fg

[tontoz]

theirs almost no point in taking contested 2 pointers now days lol. might as well shoot 3s or get it in the paint. or open 2s

EDIT:just realised how stupidly obvious i sounded haha


When the shot clock is running down sometimes contested 2s are necessary.

[NZStreetBaller]

When the shot clock is running down sometimes contested 2s are necessary.

yeah well any shot is necessary when theres 2 seconds left. even full court bombs lol:oldlol:

[tontoz]

It isn't like getting open 3s or shots at the rim is easy. The defense is actively trying to force the offense to shoot long 2s.

[aj1987]

Not if they're shooting 38%. Check your math... even a 33% shooter is not "giving 3 extra possessions to the opposition". Silly comment.

Also they provide floor spacing which improves their entire offense.
If the opposition grabs all the rebounds off of the misses, the 9/16 shooting will lead to 7 possessions. 6/16 shooting will lead to 10 possessions. Not to mention the fast break opportunities for the other team. Also, lets not forget about the fouls that the 2 points are going to draw, if the player decides to drive to the rim.

[SpanishACB]

More misses, more fastbreak opportunities for opposing team.

amongst a bunch of other things you can't even measure

[GimmeThat]

if we were to consider close game situations, if at first we disregard the opportunity for rebounds/being fouled.

56.3%*56.3%*56.3% = 17.8%
37.5%*37.5% = 14.1%

then you factor in possessions that needs to be stopped. or the good ole counting on the opposing player to miss their free throws, running out of time outs etc.



as for the whole game.

what's best for your team? and what's best for the game.

[Myth]

yeah well any shot is necessary when theres 2 seconds left. even full court bombs lol:oldlol:

Not if you are LeBron. Got to protect that fg% :pimp: