Nerlens Noel last six games

[UK2K]

10.3 ppg
7.3 rpg
2.7 bpg
1.5 spg

56% FG

What's his ceiling? His season numbers are similar, so I don't think its a fluke stretch, I think he's improving. It wouldn't be a stretch to think he could average 13, 9, 3 next season.

I think its a given he will be in contention, if not win, a DPOY at some point.

[Dr.J4ever]

10.3 ppg
7.3 rpg
2.7 bpg
1.5 spg

56% FG

What's his ceiling? His season numbers are similar, so I don't think its a fluke stretch, I think he's improving. It wouldn't be a stretch to think he could average 13, 9, 3 next season.

I think its a given he will be in contention, if not win, a DPOY at some point.

No, it's not a fluke stretch. This is sustainable. I believe he will eventually be a double double guy with 3-4 blocks a game, and at the same time be able to play on the perimeter defensively.

[BigBoss]

Got him on my fantasy :cheers:

[chocolatethunder]

10.3 ppg
7.3 rpg
2.7 bpg
1.5 spg

56% FG

What's his ceiling? His season numbers are similar, so I don't think its a fluke stretch, I think he's improving. It wouldn't be a stretch to think he could average 13, 9, 3 next season.

I think its a given he will be in contention, if not win, a DPOY at some point.
His celling is Theo Ratliff. He's really awkward offensively and he's really thin. Right now he can get tossed around because of his weight and lack of strength which doesn't help his rebounding.

[MP.Trey]

His offensive game is so cringe worthy to watch. Some guys, you can tell will never have "it" on the offensive end and Noel is one. He will be a defensive juggernaut for years to come, however.

[QuebecBaller]

Camby lite?

[artificial]

Injury free, PF version of Marcus Camby



*fingers crossed*

[artificial]

Camby lite?
:oldlol: how many seconds you beat me by? :cheers:

[Big Cheese]

I was looking up random stats and saw that this guy is ranked dead last in ORPM by a LARGE margin :biggums:

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/12/sort/ORPM

[UK2K]

I was looking up random stats and saw that this guy is ranked dead last in ORPM by a LARGE margin :biggums:

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/12/sort/ORPM
Waiters is ranked about 8 spots ahead of him.

I wouldn't put too much stock into that.

[dubnation]

Waiters is ranked about 8 spots ahead of him.

I wouldn't put too much stock into that.

Waiters has been terrible offensively this year.

[chocolatethunder]

Injury free, PF version of Marcus Camby



*fingers crossed*
Camby had 10 seasons of averaging at least 10 rebounds. You're not going to get that from Noel. I'm not sure you guys are watching him play because if you were you'd be more realistic about him. I think that he will be a good solid defensive PF/C who can block a lot of shots. If you think that he can ever average more than 14ppg you're dreaming. That being said, that's not what Philly expects from him or drafted him to do. He is horrible and I mean horrible on offense. He can catch a lob and he is really fast so he can get by a defender. The problem is that he's just an awful shooter and not that coordinated with the ball. As he gets stronger I expect that he'll become a much better rebounder and man defender. Ratliff at his peak averaged about 12ppg and 8 boards and blocked 3 shots. That's a realistic celling for Noel. He may average 13 or 14 ppg and maybe 9 or 10 boards for a few seasons but he's like Ratliff. Ratliff was a PF who played center and defended it well. I guess everyone here is too young to remember him. He was drafted by Detroit and played under Doug Collins who didn't like him or Aaron McKie. Once they were both in Philly they flourished (McKie was in Portland first). Anyway, as a Sixer fan, I willl be thrilled if he ends up being like Ratliff.

[ImKobe]

Camby had 10 seasons of averaging at least 10 rebounds. You're not going to get that from Noel. I'm not sure you guys are watching him play because if you were you'd be more realistic about him. I think that he will be a good solid defensive PF/C who can block a lot of shots. If you think that he can ever average more than 14ppg you're dreaming. That being said, that's not what Philly expects from him or drafted him to do. He is horrible and I mean horrible on offense. He can catch a lob and he is really fast so he can get by a defender. The problem is that he's just an awful shooter and not that coordinated with the ball. As he gets stronger I expect that he'll become a much better rebounder and man defender. Ratliff at his peak averaged about 12ppg and 8 boards and blocked 3 shots. That's a realistic celling for Noel. He may average 13 or 14 ppg and maybe 9 or 10 boards for a few seasons but he's like Ratliff. Ratliff was a PF who played center and defended it well. I guess everyone here is too young to remember him. He was drafted by Detroit and played under Doug Collins who didn't like him or Aaron McKie. Once they were both in Philly they flourished (McKie was in Portland first). Anyway, as a Sixer fan, I willl be thrilled if he ends up being like Ratliff.

I know Theo Ratliff, but I have higher hopes for Noel because of his athleticism. Noel will average 10 rebounds a game for at least one season if given 35 mpg. Heck, he's averaging 7 a game in his rookie season in 30 mpg.

[chocolatethunder]

I know Theo Ratliff, but I have higher hopes for Noel because of his athleticism. Noel will average 10 rebounds a game for at least one season if given 35 mpg. Heck, he's averaging 7 a game in his rookie season in 30 mpg.
Theo Ratliff's vert was nasty. He had six seasons of at least 3 blocks too. I didn't say that he couldn't average 10 rpg for a season, I said that he wouldn't have 10 seasons of averaging 10 rebounds like Camby. He's a lot more like Ratliff than he is Camby.

edit: Theo Ratliff's career rebound% is what Noel's is this season, 13%.

[artificial]

Camby had 10 seasons of averaging at least 10 rebounds. You're not going to get that from Noel. I'm not sure you guys are watching him play because if you were you'd be more realistic about him. I think that he will be a good solid defensive PF/C who can block a lot of shots. If you think that he can ever average more than 14ppg you're dreaming. That being said, that's not what Philly expects from him or drafted him to do. He is horrible and I mean horrible on offense. He can catch a lob and he is really fast so he can get by a defender. The problem is that he's just an awful shooter and not that coordinated with the ball. As he gets stronger I expect that he'll become a much better rebounder and man defender. Ratliff at his peak averaged about 12ppg and 8 boards and blocked 3 shots. That's a realistic celling for Noel. He may average 13 or 14 ppg and maybe 9 or 10 boards for a few seasons but he's like Ratliff. Ratliff was a PF who played center and defended it well. I guess everyone here is too young to remember him. He was drafted by Detroit and played under Doug Collins who didn't like him or Aaron McKie. Once they were both in Philly they flourished (McKie was in Portland first). Anyway, as a Sixer fan, I willl be thrilled if he ends up being like Ratliff.
I jokingly put *fingers crossed* as I am aware I was shooting just a bit too high. Also, I know and remember well Theo. He was anchoring the defense of that fantastic 2001 Sixer team before Larry Brown fell in love with Mutombo at the All-Star break. Which I always found ironic, as Ratliff had been voted to start the All Star game that year. Had it not been for that injury, I sometimes wonder if Mutombo would have ever been a Sixer.

Anyway, back to Noel I do agree with your Ratliff comparison. I'll admit I haven't been able to catch too many Sixer games this season, but as far as size, offensive skill, blocking ability, and both being Cs in a PF body your comparison sounds good to me. Noel isn't nearly as strong as Theo (even in Theo's 1st year), and I do want to think that Noel can develop into a regular double-double player, but lets agree to disagree. I also want to think Noel will shoot for DPOY in his prime, but that is me being optimistic about the young kid.

[Dr.J4ever]

Theo Ratliff's vert was nasty. He had six seasons of at least 3 blocks too. I didn't say that he couldn't average 10 rpg for a season, I said that he wouldn't have 10 seasons of averaging 10 rebounds like Camby. He's a lot more like Ratliff than he is Camby.

edit: Theo Ratliff's career rebound% is what Noel's is this season, 13%.

Maybe a Ratliff in the paint, but Noel has shown elite athleticism, maybe even enough to guard smaller players on the perimeter..Noel will be a perennial DPOY candidate.

[chocolatethunder]

I jokingly put *fingers crossed* as I am aware I was shooting just a bit too high. Also, I know and remember well Theo. He was anchoring the defense of that fantastic 2001 Sixer team before Larry Brown fell in love with Mutombo at the All-Star break. Which I always found ironic, as Ratliff had been voted to start the All Star game that year. Had it not been for that injury, I sometimes wonder if Mutombo would have ever been a Sixer.

Anyway, back to Noel I do agree with your Ratliff comparison. I'll admit I haven't been able to catch too many Sixer games this season, but as far as size, offensive skill, blocking ability, and both being Cs in a PF body your comparison sounds good to me. Noel isn't nearly as strong as Theo (even in Theo's 1st year), and I do want to think that Noel can develop into a regular double-double player once developed, but lets agree to disagree. I also want to think Noel will shoot for DPOY in his prime, but that is me being optimistic about the young kid.

Nah, Mutumbo wouldn't have been a Sixer no way but it was the right move and Theo missed most of the next year. I would have wanted to keep him if he didn't get hurt but he did and that was the right move.

I'm a Sixer fan, I just try and be realistic. I'm happy with Noel. Totally happy but I don't get too caught up in the moment.

[Dr.J4ever]

I jokingly put *fingers crossed* as I am aware I was shooting just a bit too high. Also, I know and remember well Theo. He was anchoring the defense of that fantastic 2001 Sixer team before Larry Brown fell in love with Mutombo at the All-Star break. Which I always found ironic, as Ratliff had been voted to start the All Star game that year. Had it not been for that injury, I sometimes wonder if Mutombo would have ever been a Sixer.

Anyway, back to Noel I do agree with your Ratliff comparison. I'll admit I haven't been able to catch too many Sixer games this season, but as far as size, offensive skill, blocking ability, and both being Cs in a PF body your comparison sounds good to me. Noel isn't nearly as strong as Theo (even in Theo's 1st year), and I do want to think that Noel can develop into a regular double-double player, but lets agree to disagree. I also want to think Noel will shoot for DPOY in his prime, but that is me being optimistic about the young kid.

Noel will never be the offensive player AD is, but BB mentioned in the NO game that AD should be Noel's model. Only in the sense of weight gain though.

AD went from 214lbs to around 240lbs today. Noel is about 208-210lbs today. Someone correct me if I'm wrong on that. If Noel reached 240lbs, think of the possibilities .

[Xover]

Alex Len last six games

9.1 ppg
10.5 rpg
2.8 bpg
0.8 spg

55 FG%

:D

[UK2K]

Nerlens can get up to 235-240.

That's solid for a PF. And with his athleticism, he'll probably beat an opponent to the rebound at least two or three times a night.

13/11/3 and 2 steals to boot.

And hell never shoot over 65% from the FT line.

[chocolatethunder]

Maybe a Ratliff in the paint, but Noel has shown elite athleticism, maybe even enough to guard smaller players on the perimeter..Noel will be a perennial DPOY candidate.
Noel is no doubt a lot faster than Ratliff ever was. He's not going to be guarding 3s but he's a hell of a lot quicker laterally. Saying that he "will be a perennial DPOY candidate" is getting ahead of yourself. He's so damn skinny he can't guard anyone in the post. He can block the hell out of the ball so that's a start.

It's not a given that he's going to gain a ton of weight. They've had him on an insane weight/workout plan since last year. He added I wanna say 10 or 15 lbs or so. They're trying their best. Some players it's extremely difficult to get them to add the weight regardless of what they do. So don't count on him getting to 240.

[chocolatethunder]

Nerlens can get up to 235-240.

That's solid for a PF. And with his athleticism, he'll probably beat an opponent to the rebound at least two or three times a night.

13/11/3 and 2 steals to boot.

And hell never shoot over 65% from the FT line.
While Noel may be fast enough to guard a stretch four, he has no business being out there on the perimeter on offense, which is a problem because he also has literally no game in the post and as you already mentioned, he's one of worst FT shooters in the game. They have been working on his FT shooting and his shooting in general since last year and he's only at 50%. Literally. He worked on that all last season and all this summer. My friend played summer league for the Sixers and guarded Noel every say. He said that he was fast as shit and was the worst shooter and FT shooter who was on their summer league roster. He probably won't ever get to 60%. He's 228 now, so I guess 240 doesn't seem far fetched but that doesn't mean that he's guaranteed to get there. Your peak numbers for him seem possible and I'd be thrilled with that.

[UK2K]

Noel is no doubt a lot faster than Ratliff ever was. He's not going to be guarding 3s but he's a hell of a lot quicker laterally. Saying that he "will be a perennial DPOY candidate" is getting ahead of yourself. He's so damn skinny he can't guard anyone in the post. He can block the hell out of the ball so that's a start.

It's not a given that he's going to gain a ton of weight. They've had him on an insane weight/workout plan since last year. He added I wanna say 10 or 15 lbs or so. They're trying their best. Some players it's extremely difficult to get them to add the weight regardless of what they do. So don't count on him getting to 240.

He's 20 years old. He'll gain 10 pounds of fat in 5 years.

[GOBB]

I know Theo Ratliff, but I have higher hopes for Noel because of his athleticism. Noel will average 10 rebounds a game for at least one season if given 35 mpg. Heck, he's averaging 7 a game in his rookie season in 30 mpg.

Noel has a ways to go before he is a double digit rebounder nightly. The idea you give him 35mpg and he would do it really isn't a strong argument. You can't overlook foul trouble. He averages 3 a game in 30mpg. He has to get stronger, it's obvious and a "no shit" comment but it's not easy. And him packing him 235-240 is a lot. He may not ever weigh that until his prime is over. And last his hands simy can't be ignored. He doesn't have great hands. so yeah giving him 5mpg won't exactly mean he will avg 10rpg.

[GOBB]

I pretty much agree with Chocolatethunder on noel.

[QuebecBaller]

:oldlol: how many seconds you beat me by? :cheers:

:lol :lol

:cheers:

[chocolatethunder]

He's 20 years old. He'll gain 10 pounds of fat in 5 years.
You can't count on that. Plenty of players stay extremely thin. Not saying it's not possible but it's not a given. The fact is is that he's 228 now and looks incredibly thin and gets tossed around like a rag doll. Him being 12 pounds heavier doesn't mean he's not going to get tossed around then either.

I'm a fan but I just don't understand why people have difficulty being realistic about players. They're (not you, the numbers you tossed out for him are realistic) always tossing out numbers like "oh he'll get 16/15/6/5/3 in his peak", when there are almost never players who average that historically let alone regularly. And for whatever reason on this board every one is "elite". I'm not sure that anyone even knows what that word means.

[Jailblazers7]

Best case: Tyson Chandler

Worst case: Pre-Mental Breakdown Larry Sanders?

[chocolatethunder]

Noel has a ways to go before he is a double digit rebounder nightly. The idea you give him 35mpg and he would do it really isn't a strong argument. You can't overlook foul trouble. He averages 3 a game in 30mpg. He has to get stronger, it's obvious and a "no shit" comment but it's not easy. And him packing him 235-240 is a lot. He may not ever weigh that until his prime is over. And last his hands simy can't be ignored. He doesn't have great hands. so yeah giving him 5mpg won't exactly mean he will avg 10rpg.

That's exactly it which is why per 36 stats are total bullshit. If averaging 10 rbs per game was just a result of more minutes, then there would be 25 guys averaging 10 a game every year.

[UK2K]

Best case: Tyson Chandler

Worst case: Pre-Mental Breakdown Larry Sanders?
I was thinking Larry Sanders too

[boozehound]

Best case: Tyson Chandler

Worst case: Pre-Mental Breakdown Larry Sanders?
how in the world is larry sanders (2 years ago) his floor? that would be great for them. I think chocolate thunder is pretty much right on with his comments and comparison to theo.

[boozehound]

which, btw, is pretty damn good in my opinion.

[chocolatethunder]

which, btw, is pretty damn good in my opinion.
:cheers: thanks. And I agree. I'd be quite happy with Theo.

[Jailblazers7]

how in the world is larry sanders (2 years ago) his floor? that would be great for them. I think chocolate thunder is pretty much right on with his comments and comparison to theo.

Obviously a true worst case is that he basically never improves and what we see now is what we get. I'm factoring in my guess as to his potential development curves. I don't think it would take a whole lot for him to get to where Larry Sanders was 2 years ago. I think Sanders was a better natural shot blocker but otherwise its a fair comparison.

Maybe worst case/best case isn't quite the word for it. Larry Sanders is a likely scenario imo while Tyson Chandler is the "in my dreams" scenario.

[chocolatethunder]

Obviously a true worst case is that he basically never improves and what we see now is what we get. I'm factoring in my guess as to his potential development curves. I don't think it would take a whole lot for him to get to where Larry Sanders was 2 years ago. I think Sanders was a better natural shot blocker but otherwise its a fair comparison.

Maybe worst case/best case isn't quite the word for it. Larry Sanders is a likely scenario imo while Tyson Chandler is the "in my dreams" scenario.
Chandler is a good defender and pretty good player but he's only averaged 10 or more rebounds four times in his career and only averaged more 10 points or more five times in his career. So I don't think that Tyson Chandler is impossible. Chandler has had a lot of just ok seasons.

[boozehound]

Obviously a true worst case is that he basically never improves and what we see now is what we get. I'm factoring in my guess as to his potential development curves. I don't think it would take a whole lot for him to get to where Larry Sanders was 2 years ago. I think Sanders was a better natural shot blocker but otherwise its a fair comparison.

Maybe worst case/best case isn't quite the word for it. Larry Sanders is a likely scenario imo while Tyson Chandler is the "in my dreams" scenario.
fair enough.

[Jailblazers7]

Chandler is a good defender and pretty good player but he's only averaged 10 or more rebounds four times in his career and only averaged more 10 points or more five times in his career. So I don't think that Tyson Chandler is impossible. Chandler has had a lot of just ok seasons.

Yeah, but Tyson's impact has usually been larger than his numbers. But I guess that more due to his leadership which isn't really a fair thing to ask from a 20 year old kid. My dream scenario would be for Noel to really be that defensive leader and spark for the Sixers for a long time.

The thing that gets me excited about Noel is thinking about the momentum shifting plays he could make in big games given the crazy shit he can do on defense.

[chocolatethunder]

Yeah, but Tyson's impact has usually been larger than his numbers. But I guess that more due to his leadership which isn't really a fair thing to ask from a 20 year old kid. My dream scenario would be for Noel to really be that defensive leader and spark for the Sixers for a long time.

The thing that gets me excited about Noel is thinking about the momentum shifting plays he could make in big games given the crazy shit he can do on defense.
No, it hasn't. It took him years before he was ever relevant and even then, he's only had about 5 good years. He wasn't very good in Chicago. He was good his first two years with the hornets but his last year with them and his only year with Charlotte he wasn't good. He was good in Dallas and pretty good in NY but his last year in NY was terrible.