View Full Version : New Unemployment claims, lowest since the Clinton Adminstration
KevinNYC
01-29-2015, 03:26 PM
U.S. jobless claims drop to 15-year low. April 2000 was the last time we saw these numbers.
The number of people who sought new U.S. unemployment benefits in late January fell to its lowest level in 14 years, government data showed Thursday.
Initial jobless claims declined to 265,000 in the seven days ended Jan. 24 from a revised 308,000, the Labor Department said.
The decline, the largest since November 2012, was much larger than expected.
KevinNYC
01-29-2015, 03:29 PM
Hopefully 2015 continues like this and builds on 2014. (http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/09/news/economy/december-jobs-report-unemployment/)
2014 was America's best year of job growth since 1999
Last year was America's best year of job growth since 1999.
More than 2.95 million jobs were created last year, according to the latest figures from the Department of Labor.
It's encouraging news as the U.S. tries to put the Great Recession and sluggish recovery solidly behind it. Many economists expect 2015 to be equally as strong, if not better, for job seekers.
The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% in December, down from 5.8% in November. That's also a big drop from the 6.7% rate in December 2013. It's expected to hit 5.2% -- around the normal level -- by the end of the year, according to CNNMoney's survey of economists.
The Iron Sheik
01-29-2015, 03:40 PM
don't you have to have had a job to get unemployment?
Tarik One
01-29-2015, 03:42 PM
It's easier to get a job now, but still not very easy to get a decent paying job.
nathanjizzle
01-29-2015, 03:49 PM
lets get this money my fellow americans:cheers:
HitandRun Reggie
01-29-2015, 03:52 PM
Less people are working than ever in recent history. The labor participation rate hasn't been this bad since the 70s and wages are in the gutter. They have been there since Obama took office and haven't climbed back up yet. Yet some people scratch their heads as to why the Democrat masses weren't enthused to show up to vote this last election. "Bu..b....bu..b..but....the unemployment rate!" :oldlol:
http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS11300000_2004_2014_all_period_M1 2_data.gif
http://www.cepr.net/images/stories/bytes/jobs-2015-01.jpg
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Patrick Chewing
01-29-2015, 04:00 PM
I had to have had a job in the first place to claim unemployment.
LOL that Liberal math exposed
:oldlol:
KevinNYC
01-29-2015, 04:21 PM
Less people are working than ever in recent history. The labor participation rate hasn't been this bad since the 70s and wages are in the gutter. They have been there since Obama took office and haven't climbed back up yet. Yet some people scratch their heads as to why the Democrat masses weren't enthused to show up to vote this last election. "Bu..b....bu..b..but....the unemployment rate!" :oldlol:
http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS11300000_2004_2014_all_period_M1 2_data.gif
http://www.cepr.net/images/stories/bytes/jobs-2015-01.jpg
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Using Democrat as an adjective is the lamest form of political trolling.
The Labor participation rate was low in the 70's and is getting low again. This corresponds to a gigantic demographic bump entering prime working years and now beginning to retire that is the baby boom generation. Part of this is due to baby boomers getting ready to retire. This is probably also affecting slower growth around the world. Older folks spend less.
This also had some effect on the housing bubble starting about 15 years ago. Baby boomers in their prime earning years buying real estate.
There is obviously still slack in the economy, but that's why today's numbers are good news.
Researchers say the affects of an aging population account for about 40 to 50% of the decline in working population ratio and that is going to increase in the coming yearshttp://www.usnews.com/cmsmedia/df/bc/1040a1ca41868ac2635fee763475/140717-participation2-graphic.jpg
KevinNYC
01-29-2015, 04:41 PM
In short if you are looking the employment population ratio as an indicator of full employment, you have to understand that it would have gone down some just due to an aging population.
But yes, we are still not at full employment.
Droid101
01-29-2015, 04:49 PM
I had to have had a job in the first place to claim unemployment.
LOL that Liberal math exposed
:oldlol:
If a Repub was in office, you'd be crowing about these numbers.
I wonder what the difference is?
oarabbus
01-29-2015, 04:52 PM
NO! SHUT UP OP! THIS MAKES OBAMA LOOK GOOD!
Quickly, find something wrong with it!
edit: thank god, someone already found something wrong with it
Patrick Chewing
01-29-2015, 05:00 PM
If a Repub was in office, you'd be crowing about these numbers.
I wonder what the difference is?
You have me all wrong my friend. I'm all for accountability. Regardless of who's in office.
HitandRun Reggie
01-29-2015, 05:04 PM
Better get a college education kids AND find a job that requires a degree because wages for both skilled and unskilled labor ain't going up anytime soon. Obama is encouraging more and more illegal aliens to come into this country and trying to legalize as many as he can because he thinks his legacy will benefit from this. But they will all work cheaper, and many cases, harder than you so you can forget about wages ever taking off. So between Mr. IRobot and Juanito the Border Crosser, your chances of wage increases are fvcked.
Obama and the minimum wage paying corporations, walking hand in hand gleefully trouncing over the American worker.
Droid101
01-29-2015, 05:07 PM
alize as many as he can because he thinks his legacy will benefit from this. But they will all work cheaper, and many cases, harder than you so you can forget about wages ever taking off.
Free market.
Dresta
01-29-2015, 05:46 PM
Free market.
:facepalm
The government micromanages just about every area of the economy you prat. It's why the inequality you're always bitching about is so high: politicians will always sell their power to unaccountable elites if you give them the chance. It started in the US from day 1 with Alexander Hamilton, and unsurprisingly, it was New York financiers who he was at the service of even back then.
The Iron Sheik
01-29-2015, 06:22 PM
i don't think how hard your job is always correlates to how much you get paid. strippers get paid like shit and they work their asses off (literally)
HitandRun Reggie
01-29-2015, 06:36 PM
i don't think how hard your job is always correlates to how much you get paid. strippers get paid like shit and they work their asses off (literally)
???
A decent stripper in a metro area can make as much in a weekend, or even a single night, as much as a girl at WalMart does in a month
qrich
01-29-2015, 09:13 PM
i don't think how hard your job is always correlates to how much you get paid. strippers get paid like shit and they work their asses off (literally)
You must go to shitty ass strip clubs.
I work with a stripper and she banks around $250 during her 3 hour shifts, in tips.
Kblaze8855
01-29-2015, 09:46 PM
It's easier to get a job now, but still not very easy to get a decent paying job.
It never was.
KevinNYC
01-30-2015, 10:57 AM
2014 was a good, not great year.
U.S. Economy Grew at 2.4% Rate in 2014, Best Since 2010 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/business/economy/us-gdp-fourth-quarter-economic-output.html)
The economy finished 2014 on a solid note, buoyed by robust consumer spending even as other sectors showed signs of weakness.
For all of 2014, the economy grew at a rate of 2.4 percent, the best showing since 2010, the Commerce Department reported Friday morning.
However, this past quarter was lower than predicted and definitely off the hot third quarter. Consumers ares spending, but business, not so much. Both due to cheap oil. A good chunk of business spending in the last few years was supporting new oil projects.
At 2.6 percent, the rate of growth in the final three months of the year is a significant downshift from the blistering 5 percent pace recorded in the third quarter, but is still considered relatively healthy.
Lower energy prices, along with a stronger job market, helped drive consumer spending last quarter and most economists expect these tailwinds to continue in 2015.
Some business investment slowed in late 2014, reversing strong gains in the previous two quarters. Many economists expect business spending to be lackluster in the coming months, hurt by deep cuts among drillers and other energy companies amid plunging oil prices. Lower government spending, especially on defense was a major drag.
KevinNYC
01-30-2015, 11:10 AM
Wages/Compensation best in 6 years. Still slow.
US Pay and Benefits Rose by Most in 6 Years Last Year
Wages and benefits rose at the fastest pace in six years last year, a sign strong job gains could be forcing companies to pay a bit more for workers.
The Labor Department said Friday that the employment cost index, which measures pay and benefits, rose 2.2 percent in 2014, up from 2 percent the previous year. That's the biggest gain since 2008. It's also ahead of inflation, which rose 1.3 percent.
Yet the increase is still sluggish by historical standards. In a healthy economy, the index usually rises at about a 3.5 percent pace.
Like the GDP 4th quarter wage growth wasn't as high as 3rd quarter.
They Won
01-30-2015, 01:01 PM
Great. Now lets get it to earlier Clinton days.
NumberSix
01-30-2015, 09:47 PM
So, is the "job growth" is due to business growing or a bunch of government jobs being created?
ThePhantomCreep
01-30-2015, 10:44 PM
GDP growth for Q4 will almost certainly be revised upward--the economy added 866k jobs in the last three months of the year, indicating far better growth than 2.6%. Aside from Q1, which was marred by severe weather, 2014 was a rock solid comeback for the US, a comeback made more impressive by the fact that the rest of the world hasn't kept pace, thus hurting exports.
NYC uses some random shit to determine if you're eligble or not so not sure if that's meaningful. If others do the same...
KevinNYC
01-31-2015, 03:11 PM
So, is the "job growth" is due to business growing or a bunch of government jobs being created?
One of the big stories of this recession/recovery is that government jobs are waaaaaay down.
There are still 500,000 less government employees than there were at the beginning of 2008.
Feb 2014
http://d35brb9zkkbdsd.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/pub-priv-cumulative-2-7-14.png
September 2014
http://z822j1x8tde3wuovlgo7ue15.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/gpayrolls-400x226.png
Losses of government employees account for like 25% of the drop in the labor force participation stat that people point out.
If the rate of government employment followed what happened in other recoveries, unemployment would be well under 5%.
It's the largest drop in government employment since right after WWII. Every time I post out this face on ISH, people lost their shit.
HitandRun Reggie
01-31-2015, 05:01 PM
So, is the "job growth" is due to business growing or a bunch of government jobs being created?
Like KevinNYC stated, total government jobs are still lower than they were prior to the recession, however Federal governments jobs are up. During the peak of the recession when everyone in the private sector were losing their jobs, it never effected Federal employees. In fact at no point in Obama's presidency has there ever been less federal employees than there was with the previous administration.
KevinNYC
02-01-2015, 01:09 AM
In fact at no point in Obama's presidency has there ever been less federal employees than there was with the previous administration.
You may want to check your numbers on that (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES9091000001)
Because federal payroll numbers are lower right now than the very lowest point of the Bush Administration
Furthermore, every month since April 2013 has been at or lower than the highest month of the Bush Administration.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=Z5J
KevinNYC
03-05-2015, 11:10 AM
Jobless Claims in U.S. Rise to Highest Level in Nine Months (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-05/jobless-claims-in-u-s-increased-7-000-last-week-to-320-000)
[QUOTE]The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level in more than nine months, a sign harsh winter weather may be stalling the job market
kNIOKAS
03-05-2015, 11:38 AM
Jobless Claims in U.S. Rise to Highest Level in Nine Months (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-05/jobless-claims-in-u-s-increased-7-000-last-week-to-320-000)
Last winter when the Northeast got killed with snow the GDP was down for the quarter. Wonder if something like that is happening again.
What kind of job one must have to get dismissed because of a snowy weather? :biggums:
KevinNYC
03-05-2015, 11:56 AM
What kind of job one must have to get dismissed because of a snowy weather? :biggums:
People who work outdoors?
Construction projects?
KevinNYC
03-07-2015, 08:58 PM
Solid US jobs report: 295K positions added (http://www.seattletimes.com/business/us-adds-a-robust-295k-jobs-jobless-rate-falls-to-55-pct/); rate at 5.5 pct.
A burst of hiring in February underscored the resilience and confidence of U.S. businesses, which are adding workers at the fastest pace in 17 years. Yet the strong job gains did little to raise wages last month.
U.S. employers added 295,000 jobs, the 12th straight monthly gain above 200,000, the government said Friday. And the unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent from 5.7 percent. But the rate declined mainly because some people out of work stopped looking for jobs and were no longer counted as unemployed.
sometimes, i just go with the eye-test when analyzing the overall economy... nothing quantitative, but just observing simple and unscientific trends like if there are people at restaurants and malls? are pricey rental homes getting rented out? are friends taking vacations or getting new cars... sure, these clues can sometimes be misleading, but generally, people tend to spend more when they have more confidence with their finances. from the eye-test, i think many people are a lot more confident than just a few years ago. having income security probably plays a big role in that confidence.
ThePhantomCreep
03-07-2015, 11:36 PM
The "people dropped out of labor force" meme touted by right-wingers is mostly BS. Yes, that happens, but retiring Baby Boomers (a massive demographic that started turning 65 in 2011) is playing a bigger role in the labor force drop.
The numbers for February are doubly impressive when you consider the horrible weather that has hampered the Northeast region for the last few months. That means other regions are picking up the slack. :cheers:
HitandRun Reggie
03-08-2015, 10:44 AM
The "people dropped out of labor force" meme touted by right-wingers is mostly BS. Yes, that happens, but retiring Baby Boomers (a massive demographic that started turning 65 in 2011) is playing a bigger role in the labor force drop.
The numbers for February are doubly impressive when you consider the horrible weather that has hampered the Northeast region for the last few months. That means other regions are picking up the slack. :cheers:
I don't know what you're so happy about. Los Angeles lost as many jobs as your entire state gained net wise in January. So it looks like this will probably be the 25th year in a row with negative or stagnant job growth in Los Angeles metro. You have the worst job growth of any area in the entire US including Detroit and Cleveland over the last quarter century. Can you say "downward spiral"?
http://m.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2014/04/14/l-a-goes-23rdstraight-year-without-job-growth.html?page=all&r=full
http://www.montereyherald.com/business/20150306/california-adds-jobs-but-los-angeles-county-loses-almost-as-many
At least you got the weather....:cheers:
ThePhantomCreep
03-08-2015, 08:22 PM
I don't know what you're so happy about. Los Angeles lost as many jobs as your entire state gained net wise in January. So it looks like this will probably be the 25th year in a row with negative or stagnant job growth in Los Angeles metro. You have the worst job growth of any area in the entire US including Detroit and Cleveland over the last quarter century. Can you say "downward spiral"?
http://m.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2014/04/14/l-a-goes-23rdstraight-year-without-job-growth.html?page=all&r=full
http://www.montereyherald.com/business/20150306/california-adds-jobs-but-los-angeles-county-loses-almost-as-many
At least you got the weather....:cheers:
A) That article is almost a year old. The U3 rate in LA County has dropped nearly a full point since then.
B) Total jobs in LA County peaked in 2007, with a 4.6 unemployment rate, just before the Great Recession hit. The premise of that article, that Los Angeles has been on a long uninterrupted downward spiral since 1990, is bullshit.
C) Metropolitan Area statistics are not seasonally adjusted, which is why you see wild fluctuations like that. In this case, businesses shed holiday temp jobs from their payrolls, something that happens every year in cities nationwide :
The state Employment Development Department also reported that Los Angeles County lost 62,000 jobs between December and January as post-holiday layoffs hit the retail sector and labor difficulties at the ports hit the distribution sector.
But that drop came amid an annual data revision that resulted in 58,000 more jobs showing up on employer payrolls in the county than previously estimated.That meant November and December saw record numbers of payroll jobs, surpassing the pre-recession peak in 2007.
D) Los Angeles has the third largest metro economy on Earth, behind only New York and Tokyo. We'll be fine, but I must ask--what does this have to with the NATIONAL economic picture? Deflect much?
KevinNYC
03-08-2015, 10:24 PM
For the first time since 1984, (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2015/03/04/for-the-first-time-since-1984-unemployment-fell-in-every-state-and-d-c-last-year/) unemployment fell in every state and D.C. last year[QUOTE]For the first time in three decades, unemployment fell in every state and the District of Columbia last year.
The last time that happened, in 1984, Apple was unveiling the original Macintosh. Nearly half the nation
Duderonomy
03-09-2015, 09:27 AM
Unemployed insurance is different than unemployment. So the unemployment numbers is just the percentage of people who are looking for jobs but can't find one, not the people who are currently drawing unemployment.
KevinNYC
03-09-2015, 09:39 AM
Unemployed insurance is different than unemployment. So the unemployment numbers is just the percentage of people who are looking for jobs but can't find one, not the people who are currently drawing unemployment.
There's more to than that. The government uses several ways to measure unemployment but the "official number" is the u3 (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm)
U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force
U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)
U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers
U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
longhornfan1234
03-09-2015, 04:14 PM
The employment rate has gone up.... the participation rate has gone down. Wage growth is null. We have more low paying service level jobs in the past quarter. That's better than no jobs at all... but after recessions you are supposed to have strong recoveries. The recovery we have had is in the form of asset prices rising.... both bonds and equities a like. This is due to monetary policy... and that monetary policy should be judged 10-20 years from now when the full effects of injecting trillions of dollars (borrowed from future generations) are felt. Not during the very period it is supposed to benefit. Settle down, Kevin.
KevinNYC
03-09-2015, 06:19 PM
Settle down, Kevin.
Settle down? From what ?
That's better than no jobs at all... but after recessions you are supposed to have strong recoveries. Yes, you have to get to better before you get to best ......does this surprise you? After recessions, you're supposed to have strong recoveries? After all this time are you still acting like 2007-2009 was a run of the mill recession? Did you not believe it when people were saying this was the worst since the last financial crisis? Financial Crises behave differently than other types of recessions because businesses and households and state and local government all have shift their spending at the same time. Business and households need to deleverage and pay down their debt, this means less investment and less money flowing through the economy. It's bad.
Here's a comparison of several financial crises from an employment standpoint. This was with data from about June of last year. So about 2 million jobs have been added since then
http://oregoneconomicanalysis.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/finanacialcrises0514.png
Here's a prescient quote from November 2008 way before the size of the full crisis was even known: The Impact of Deleveraging (The Impact of Deleveraging on Economic Growth)
The data shows that we are sadly not yet close to the end of this recession. It is going to be a long slow Muddle Through Recovery. Do not expect a typical V-shaped recovery.
The recovery we have had is in the form of asset prices rising.... both bonds and equities a like.If you could point to any info on bonds, I'd appreciate it. Yes, stocks have had a 6 year bull market but bonds have been more up and down (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-07-01/nowhere-to-hide-in-worst-bond-losses-since-2008-credit-markets)
ThePhantomCreep
03-09-2015, 07:33 PM
The employment rate has gone up.... the participation rate has gone down. Wage growth is null. We have more low paying service level jobs in the past quarter. That's better than no jobs at all... but after recessions you are supposed to have strong recoveries. The recovery we have had is in the form of asset prices rising.... both bonds and equities a like. This is due to monetary policy... and that monetary policy should be judged 10-20 years from now when the full effects of injecting trillions of dollars (borrowed from future generations) are felt. Not during the very period it is supposed to benefit. Settle down, Kevin.
The participation rate was projected to decline long before the Great Recession hit. Retiring Baby Boomers, dammit!
It's a conservative myth that the LFPR needs to be at 66% for optimal economic health. If that were true, 1981 (63% LFPR) was a better year economically than 1955 (59% LFPR). Obviously that wasn't the case.
KevinNYC
03-09-2015, 07:40 PM
Another issue with the length of the recent recession is the fact that the usual monetary of dealing with recession by lowering interest rates doesn't apply when you are close to zero.
https://lh4.ggpht.com/LzMMk8k3K9fgKLT53vBRE1ltDq8OLx4EQ8Pnczp39ZQFhvkZD6 S_WObZxQcdy68dnJTVMQ=s128
Dresta
03-11-2015, 09:31 AM
The participation rate was projected to decline long before the Great Recession hit. Retiring Baby Boomers, dammit!
It's a conservative myth that the LFPR needs to be at 66% for optimal economic health. If that were true, 1981 (63% LFPR) was a better year economically than 1955 (59% LFPR). Obviously that wasn't the case.
Red herring. More elderly people are working now than at any time in recent memory, men and women, across the board:
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-EC574_Change_G_20140814103743.jpg
They can't even afford to retire any more :lol. Things are clearly trending in the wrong direction, and you remain oblivious to it all. Your thinking their retiring is the cause of this is the myth. It's still the young who are struggling to find jobs, despite the LFPR being so low, and among the few who have found work, many of those jobs will be part-time (and many will have degrees and huge sums of debt, too). The 1955 figure is completely irrelevant as well considering women weren't in employment on anything like the same scale.
Honestly, these statistics that keep getting posted are utterly fabricated - in Feb, only 1,100 jobs supposedly lost in the energy sector, despite Challenger Grey & Christmas putting the figure at 16,000 (with the massive cutbacks due to oil being so cheap, how on earth could anyone put the figure so low as 1100, unless they are deliberately lying?). All the while, 130+ thousand jobs were blithely assumed to have been created, and at the same time, factory orders fell for the 6th consecutive month.
:lol - Please, spare me this bullshit.
The stats which litter this thread are, by-and-large, complete junk.
KevinNYC
04-03-2015, 11:08 PM
Solid US jobs report: 295K positions added (http://www.seattletimes.com/business/us-adds-a-robust-295k-jobs-jobless-rate-falls-to-55-pct/); rate at 5.5 pct.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobs-20150404-story.html
U.S. job growth slows sharply in March to 126,000
KevinNYC
05-19-2015, 04:50 PM
What kind of job one must have to get dismissed because of a snowy weather? :biggums:
After a down February and March, new housing construction showed a big jump in April. This adds some evidence that people wanted to build a new house waited until better weather.
Housing Starts increased to 1.135 Million Annual Rate in April, Highest since 2007
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#dm9Qyci8j6huEH8b.99
Housing Number helped the stock market close at a record for the second straight day.
Bigsmoke
05-20-2015, 06:07 AM
We need more black presidents
Dresta
05-20-2015, 08:46 AM
So why is Kev plugging the stock and housing bubbles while ignoring the fact that almost all the key economic indicators are being rapidly revised downwards, and that the US economy is dealing with some of its worst economic data since 2009. This is with interest rates being at 0% for an unprecedented length of time. How's that rate-hike coming there Kev?
Are you going to blame it on the weather too? Even though the early 2nd quarter numbers look at least as bad :lol - why can't people like you realise that it's basically the job of the Fed to lie about the economy, and stop believing that everything depends on whether or not Yellen decides to remove the word "patient" and replace it with "some considerable time" or some other such nonsense?
Just admit that QE has failed already before you end up the chump supporting the same failed policies again and again, and then blaming their failures on external factors (like worshippers of the state tend to do). When even the mainstream financial circle-jerks like the Economist and Bloomberg are reporting on this you know the shit is about to hit the fan, and yet i see you in here focusing only on the inflated housing market because the rest of the economy isn't looking so hot. Expect negative interest rates and more money printing - i look forward to seeing you try to justify this, and then, when that fails, perhaps even justifying the banning of cash transactions.
rufuspaul
05-20-2015, 09:58 AM
I wonder if Kevin does PR work IRL. :confusedshrug:
KevinNYC
05-20-2015, 11:36 AM
I wonder if Kevin does PR work IRL. :confusedshrug:
Check my avatar. Our contract is expecting to come through in September and then I get to do my retirement post.
KevinNYC
05-20-2015, 12:28 PM
So why is Kev plugging the stock and housing bubbles while ignoring the fact that almost all the key economic indicators are being rapidly revised downwards, and that the US economy is dealing with some of its worst economic data since 2009. This is with interest rates being at 0% for an unprecedented length of time. How's that rate-hike coming there Kev?
Are you going to blame it on the weather too? Even though the early 2nd quarter numbers look at least as bad :lol - why can't people like you realise that it's basically the job of the Fed to lie about the economy, and stop believing that everything depends on whether or not Yellen decides to remove the word "patient" and replace it with "some considerable time" or some other such nonsense?
Just admit that QE has failed already before you end up the chump supporting the same failed policies again and again, and then blaming their failures on external factors (like worshippers of the state tend to do). When even the mainstream financial circle-jerks like the Economist and Bloomberg are reporting on this you know the shit is about to hit the fan, and yet i see you in here focusing only on the inflated housing market because the rest of the economy isn't looking so hot. Expect negative interest rates and more money printing - i look forward to seeing you try to justify this, and then, when that fails, perhaps even justifying the banning of cash transactions.
Dresta just loves to piss into the wind. All key indicators, huh? Weather not a factor, huh? These quotes are from earlier this month.
Milder weather helped the labor market shake off a winter chill in April as employers added 223,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.4%, lowest since May 2008
.........
The nation's gross domestic product -- the total value of goods and services -- plunged to 0.2 percent in the first three months of the year, damped by harsh winter weather, shrinking overseas sales by U.S. manufacturers and a decline in spending by energy companies amid a sharp fall in oil prices.
.....
The latest GDP reading from the government on the first quarter showed the economy expanded at just a 0.2 percent annual rate on falling exports due to the strong dollar, bad weather crimping consumer spending and dropping oil prices cutting energy sector capital spending.
.......
The cold weather, strong U.S. dollar and West Coast port strike were the culprits for weak economic growth.
....
The latest numbers offer encouragement that the recent economic slowdown marks a temporary slip — one that is at least partly weather-related — rather than a sign of deeper problems. Both the jobs growth in April, as well as the tick down in the unemployment rate, was almost exactly in line market expectations.
When the BLS does its unemployment survey they ask two questions related to weather, number of people who have a job but didn't work due to weather and number of people who normally work full time but only worked part time due to weather. These numbers are down by 200,000 and 1,000,000 from Feb to April.
Similar things happened last year with the weather. Last year was a good year for jobs, but January was easily the worst month due to weather. April was unusually high with more than twice as many jobs as January. That April number reflected some pent up demand-hirings that were put off until the weather cleared up.
KevinNYC
05-20-2015, 12:28 PM
I wonder if Kevin does PR work IRL. :confusedshrug:
You may also want to check my post on the March numbers above.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2025 vBulletin Solutions Inc. All rights reserved.