Statistical Limits in the Modern NBA

[LAZERUSS]

The 60's bashers always bring up "pace" in an argument to disparage the statistical achievements of the players of that era. Or they will claim that the 3pt shot has dramatically changed the game, and that centers can no longer put up the numbers from previous eras.

So, what are the realistic numbers, then?

Let's start with MPG. Chamberlain, of course, is, by a large margin, the all-time leader. An entire season of 48.5 mpg, and multiple seasons of 47+. A career 46 mpg player, who also averaged over 47 mpg in his 160 post-season games. Including Wilt, the number of NBA players who averaged 40+ mpg in their careers...FIVE. BTW, guess who is at #6? Lebron James, at 39.4 mpg.

It is also interesting to note that Allen Iverson was putting up multiple 43+ seasons in the last 10-15 years. Lebron had a season of 42.3 mpg just a decade ago. And Monta Ellis has cracked the 40 and even 41 mpg in the last five years. And who can forget Kobe's last 11 games of the '12-13 season, when he averaged 43 mpg.

And then take a look at the MPG leaders in the post-season in the last few years. Exactly 10 years ago Iverson averaged 47.0 mpg. Lebron in his championship runs had two straight post-seasons of 43 and 44 mpg. And the playoff leader norm in the last 10+ years has averaged about 45 mpg.

So, let's blow this theory that the players of today couldn't play more minutes than they typically have been. Maybe it's not practical to play 44+ mpg, but to claim that players like a peak Kareem, Russell, Oscar, or Wilt would not be capable of accomplishing that feat is absurd.


How about PPG? No way anyone is averaging Wilt's 50.4 ppg, but what is a realistic limit? Well, we know that Durant averaged 32 ppg just last season, and he accomplished that while "only" playing 38.5 mpg. Just nine years ago Kobe averaged 35.4 ppg (in a lower scoring NBA than last season), and in 41.0 mpg. A year later he averaged 31.6 ppg in 40.8 mpg.

Furthermore, since 2000 there have been 10 games of 60+, with Kobe having five of them. So, in the last 15 years, a total of ten 60+ point games. Think about this...remove Wilt from the NBA in the 14 seasons in which he played, and there were a TOTAL of... FIVE.

And besides Kobe's 81, and his 62 point game in which he only played three quarters, a CENTER (Shaq) had one. And just last season, Carmelo Anthony had a 62 point game.

And how about this? Kobe averaged 35.4 ppg in his '06 season, in 41 mpg, and in a league that averaged 97 ppg. Bob McAdoo averaged 35 ppg in 43 mpg, in an NBA that averaged 103 ppg...exactly 40 years ago. Three years before that Kareem averaged 35 ppg. And two years before that a 33 year old Chamberlain was leading the league at 32 ppg on a .579 FG% before shredding his knee.

Centers can't put up big numbers any more right? How do explain DeMarcus Cousins currently averaging 24 ppg and in 32 mpg? Or a way-past-prime, overweight, and out-of-shape Shaq hanging a 45 point game as recently as 2009? Hell, how about "the statue" Roy Hibbert, who has had games in which he failed to score...averaging 22.1 pg against the champion Heat in a seven game series? Give the current Cousins 42 mpg, and assuming that he could continue to score just as efficiently...and he puts up 31.5 ppg. Give him 45 mpg, and he would put up nearly 34 ppg. Oh, and a prime Shaq, playing in the '00 Finals... 38.6 ppg.

Shaq is credited with changing the rules in the early 00's, which supposedly hampered the center from being a dominant force. Yet, against one of the greatest defenses in NBA history, the '04 Pistons, he averaged 27 ppg on a .631 FG%. Which inluded a 38 point game. And again, as recently as 2009 a shell-of-a-Shaq could still hang a 45 point game.

The reality is...aside from Cousins, there are really no true "post-up" centers. Does anyone in their right mind honestly believe that prime Shaq, playing 40 mpg, couldn't put up a 30 ppg season...TODAY...especially against an NBA that often has teams that don't even have a center on the floor?

In any case, we know that Kobe was averaging 35.4 ppg, in 41 mpg, and in a league that averaged 97 ppg. Bump his playing time up to say a maximum of 45 mpg, and in a league that averages 100 ppg (today's NBA)...and he would have theoretically averaged ... guess what... 40.0 ppg. Could he have sustained 45 mpg? That would be the real question.


How about RPG? Granted, the 60's were an era of "inflated" rebounding. Today's NBA rebounds at about 67% of what a peak early 60's NBA did. BTW, that numbr declined considerably by the end of the 60's. In fact, in Wilt's last season, the NBA averaged 50.6 rpg per team. Today's NBA is averaging 42.7 rpg per team.

Regarding Wilt. In his last post-season, covering 17 games, and him playing 47 mpg, he averaged 22.5 rpg, in a post-season NBA that averaged 50.6 rpg...which translates to an even 19.0 rpg in the current NBA. The "bashers" would argue that Wilt wouldn't play 47 mpg, but given the fact that the average leader in post-season mpg has been 45 mpg in the last 10 years...let's cut Wilt's playing time down to 45 mpg. Guess what...Chamberlain would still have averaged 18.1 rpg.

But let's forget Wilt, and deal with realistic limits. How about Kevin Love, who just a few years ago, led the NBA in rpg, at 15.2 rpg...and in only 35.8 mpg? Had Love been able to rebound at that same rate, playing 42 mpg, he would have been at 17.8 rpg. Had he been capable of 45 mpg, and he would have put up a 19.1 rpg season.

Of course, the reality is, a player averaging 36 mpg is not likely to rebound at the same efficiency as a player playing 45 mpg. Which brings us back to Wilt again. At least in theory, had Wilt "only" played 42 mpg, instead of 47-48...his TRB%'s likely would have increased...perhaps considerably.

Not only that, but as Psileas and ThaRegula8r have pointed out...Wilt likely averaged 8 bpg in his career. Hell, in his LAST season he averaged 5.42 bpg. So what you ask? Blocked shots, and attempting to block shots HURTS rebounding. It negates a rebound, or most likely, deflects a rebound to someone else. And even an attempted block usually takes that player out of rebounding position.

Which brings me to Ben Wallace in his 02-03 season (less than 12 years ago.) He averaged 15.4 rpg, in 39.4 mpg, in an NBA that averaged 42.3 rpg per team. Not only that, but he also averaged 3.2 bpg. Unlike Love, Wallace was also a shot-blocker, and an intimidator. How many rpg did Wallace LOSE attempting to block shots?

In any case, if Love could have realistically averaged 19 rpg while playing 45 mpg, BUT, without blocking shots...what would a Wilt have been capable of in the current NBA?


Speaking of blocked shots...what is a realistic maximum bpg average in the current NBA? Think about this...Hassan Whiteside has averaged 2.4 bpg while playing 20 mpg. A couple of years ago, Serge Ibaka averaged 3.7 bpg...in... 27.2 mpg. Let's take Ibaka's number, and bump him up to 45 mpg shall we? Guess what... 6.1 bpg! The "official" NBA record is held by Mark Eaton at 5.56 (BTW, in only 34.3 mpg), which he accomplished exactly 30 years ago.
Even Whiteside's bpg would be at 5.4 bpg if he were somehow capable of keeping that pace up for a full 45 mpg.


Just some food for thought...

[Im Still Ballin]

http://media.giphy.com/media/gGh4I6osbjyRa/giphy.gif

[Suguru101]

This was a very good post. It's just really hard to combine all the different factors and then make an accurate guess as to what Wilt's numbers would translate to today.

The thing about the minutes is, yes, he could play lots of minutes, but with the way the league is right now, and the constant threat of injuries, no coach in his right mind would ask Wilt to play more than 40 mpg. Also, the defense's ability to pack the paint and the 5 seconds to the basket would also limit his scoring a bit.

About the blocks: the 3 second rule would also limit him.

I think a realistic translation of Wilt's numbers, with a talented team like the 1967 one in which he wasn't asked to carry the offensive load, would be something like:

22 - 17 - 5 with 4 blocks on 38 minutes.

On a situation resembling 2006 Kobe? It's tough, because defenses have gotten even more advance than then, but I could see: 34 - 18 - 4 - 4. On 40 minutes.

[LAZERUSS]

Chamberlain averaged 47.3 mpg, 33.5 ppg, 24.6 rpg, 5.2 apg, and on a .540 FG% in his 65-66 season....which came in an NBA that averaged 115.5 ppg, 61 rpg, and shot .433 from the floor.

Reduce Wilt's playing time from his 47.3 mpg down to the current theoretical maximum of 45 mpg...reduce his RPG, FGAs, and FTAs down to '14-15 levels, but adjust for a huge jump in FG% efficiency, and his numbers would look like something like this today... 27.5 ppg, 16.5 rpg, 5 apg, and on a .619 FG%. His blocks likely would fall, but he could still have reached a maximum of 6 bpg, and a more realistic, 5 bpg.

28-17-5-5 .619.

Granted, none of those numbers were career highs for Wilt, either. His 50 ppg season would translate to about 39 ppg after reducing FGAs, FTAs, elevating his FG%, and cutting his mpg down to 45 mpg. His highest rpg season would also be about 17 rpg in today's NBA. His best apg would have been almost exactly the same (8.6 apg.) And his greatest FG% season (.727) would adjust to about to about .790 in today's NBA.

We will never know his bpg maximum, but according to Harevy Pollack, Wilt had entire seasons of 10+ bpg. But 6 bpg in 45 mpg would certainly seem realistic.

[LAZERUSS]

This was a very good post. It's just really hard to combine all the different factors and then make an accurate guess as to what Walt's numbers would translate to today.

The thing about the minutes is, yes, he could play lots of minutes, but when the the way the league is right now, and the constant threat of injuries, no coach in his right mind would ask Wilt to play more than 40 mpg. Also, the defense's ability to pack the paint and the 5 seconds to the basket would also limit his scoring a bit.

About the blocks: the 3 second rule would also limit him.

I think a realistic translation of Wilt's numbers, with a talented team like the 1967 one in which he wasn't asked to carry the offensive load, would be something like:

22 - 17 - 5 with 4 blocks on 38 minutes.

On a situation resembling 2006 Kobe? It's tough, because defenses have gotten even more advance than then, but I could see: 34 - 18 - 4 - 4. On 40 minutes.

:applause: :applause: :applause:

A well-thought out post.

[dubeta]

Wilt Chamberlain had a lanky, Chris Bosh-type body

Definitely strong in the 60's but would not translate in today's day

http://www.myclassiclyrics.com/artist_biographies/images/Wilt_Chamberlain_Biography.jpg

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2011/1202/nba_g_cbosh_sy_576.jpg

They had a similar body, except Wilt was 2 inches taller but a much worse shooter

So, to extrapolate Wilt's Stats, we simply need to adjust Bosh's stats with a 2 inch height advantage, but lower scoring due to not possessing the offensive versatility and jump shooting



Bosh in 2014, averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds a game. Obviously, Wilt's height advantage, as well as his reach would allow him to grab more than that, I definatly see him getting 8 rbs a game, maybe 9 in his prime


Although his scoring will be down, since he was both a poor jumpshooter, and was a liability at the FT line. So instead of Bosh's 16 ppg, he would be around 13-14 a game, still respectable.

His blocks would still be impressive at around 3 a game, due to his length, as strength is not really needed to get blocks.


Therefore, using common sense and deduction, his stats in today's league:

14.3 points, 8.7 rebounds a game, and 3.2 blocks

[OldSchoolBBall]

24-27 pts/13-15 reb/4 ast/3.5-4.5 blk/52-54% FG for Wilt in today's NBA.

[LAZERUSS]

Wilt Chamberlain had a lanky, Chris Bosh-type body

Definitely strong in the 60's but would not translate in today's day

http://www.myclassiclyrics.com/artist_biographies/images/Wilt_Chamberlain_Biography.jpg

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2011/1202/nba_g_cbosh_sy_576.jpg

They had a similar body, except Wilt was 2 inches taller but a much worse shooter

So, to extrapolate Wilt's Stats, we simply need to adjust Bosh's stats with a 2 inch height advantage, but lower scoring due to not possessing the offensive versatility and jump shooting



Bosh in 2014, averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds a game. Obviously, Wilt's height advantage, as well as his reach would allow him to grab more than that, I definatly see him getting 8 rbs a game, maybe 9 in his prime


Although his scoring will be down, since he was both a poor jumpshooter, and was a liability at the FT line. So instead of Bosh's 16 ppg, he would be around 13-14 a game, still respectable.

His blocks would still be impressive at around 3 a game, due to his length, as strength is not really needed to get blocks.


Therefore, using common sense and deduction, his stats in today's league:

14.3 points, 8.7 rebounds a game, and 3.2 blocks

So a prime Shaq would be around a 12-7-2 guy today, then, right?

Makes perfect sense.

Bosh > Shaq

[Kvnzhangyay]

The thing is its impossible to be objective when comparing era because since there is no way to prove anything, all guesses will be based on preconceived beliefs and biases

[GimmeThat]

when I was a child, when I was dropped off by my parents at the pre-school center.

I just remember that on the first day, I did nothing but crying.




good news from Lazeruss, some people do make it through just fine.

[Roundball_Rock]

One way to gauge dominance is to compare a player to his contemporaries. Of course no one would average 50 ppg today but even in the 60's when Wilt had seasons of 50 ppg and 44 ppg the next highest player was 37-38 ppg. KAJ, Jordan, Kobe were in the 35-37 ppg range in the 70's, 80's, 2000's. Wilt is the one outlier in scoring. That speaks to how dominant he was. If it was all about pace you would have not seen a 12-13 ppg between Wilt and the next highest scorer of the same decade. Wilt played in the same era as scorers like West, Baylor, and Barry. None of them cracked 40 ppg let alone approached 50.

[DatAsh]

It's hard to say how much pace would affect his numbers, other than maybe with rebounding. PPG will depend entirely on how many shots he's taking, and there isn't a clear enough relationship with pace there imo.

TRB% should give you a fairly clear view of what his rebounding numbers would look like today. Fatigue is a factor here, but there's other competing forces here as well. Overall it's probably going to be pretty close, leaning towards the low side.

Assists are hard to judge due to the change in the way they are officiated.

Minutes can probably be approximated by looking at other athletes of comparable stamina, athleticism, and value. It's not enough to compare him on one or two of the three, as all three criteria play a part in how many minutes someone plays. In terms of pure stamina, Rodman is probably the best there's ever been, but his value didn't demand the minutes that a player like Chamberlain would command. Two guys that fit this bill pretty well are Jordan and Lebron; Wilt's minutes would probably resemble theirs.

something like
24-28 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 2-4 apg, 53-57 TS% for 60/61/64/65/66 Wilt
40 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 2 apg, 56-57 TS% for 62 Wilt
34 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 3 apg, 58-59% for 63 Wilt

peak Wilt I could see
18 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 8 apg, 68% TS

Russell Wilt something like
10-16 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 4-5 apg, 60-73% TS

4-6 blocks seems reasonable for the best shot blocker in history - when ignoring minutes played.

That's all assuming he plays the same roles he did back then, which I highly doubt. Having seen guys like Shaq and Kareem, coaches today would utilize Wilt's skill-set better than they could back then.

[inclinerator]

thats nice cuz The 60's bashers always bring up "pace" in an argument to disparage the statistical achievements of the players of that era. Or they will claim that the 3pt shot has dramatically changed the game, and that centers can no longer put up the numbers from previous eras.

So, what are the realistic numbers, then?

Let's start with MPG. Chamberlain, of course, is, by a large margin, the all-time leader. An entire season of 48.5 mpg, and multiple seasons of 47+. A career 46 mpg player, who also averaged over 47 mpg in his 160 post-season games. Including Wilt, the number of NBA players who averaged 40+ mpg in their careers...FIVE. BTW, guess who is at #6? Lebron James, at 39.4 mpg.

It is also interesting to note that Allen Iverson was putting up multiple 43+ seasons in the last 10-15 years. Lebron had a season of 42.3 mpg just a decade ago. And Monta Ellis has cracked the 40 and even 41 mpg in the last five years. And who can forget Kobe's last 11 games of the '12-13 season, when he averaged 43 mpg.

And then take a look at the MPG leaders in the post-season in the last few years. Exactly 10 years ago Iverson averaged 47.0 mpg. Lebron in his championship runs had two straight post-seasons of 43 and 44 mpg. And the playoff leader norm in the last 10+ years has averaged about 45 mpg.

So, let's blow this theory that the players of today couldn't play more minutes than they typically have been. Maybe it's not practical to play 44+ mpg, but to claim that players like a peak Kareem, Russell, Oscar, or Wilt would not be capable of accomplishing that feat is absurd.


How about PPG? No way anyone is averaging Wilt's 50.4 ppg, but what is a realistic limit? Well, we know that Durant averaged 32 ppg just last season, and he accomplished that while "only" playing 38.5 mpg. Just nine years ago Kobe averaged 35.4 ppg (in a lower scoring NBA than last season), and in 41.0 mpg. A year later he averaged 31.6 ppg in 40.8 mpg.

Furthermore, since 2000 there have been 10 games of 60+, with Kobe having five of them. So, in the last 15 years, a total of ten 60+ point games. Think about this...remove Wilt from the NBA in the 14 seasons in which he played, and there were a TOTAL of... FIVE.

And besides Kobe's 81, and his 62 point game in which he only played three quarters, a CENTER (Shaq) had one. And just last season, Carmelo Anthony had a 62 point game.

And how about this? Kobe averaged 35.4 ppg in his '06 season, in 41 mpg, and in a league that averaged 97 ppg. Bob McAdoo averaged 35 ppg in 43 mpg, in an NBA that averaged 103 ppg...exactly 40 years ago. Three years before that Kareem averaged 35 ppg. And two years before that a 33 year old Chamberlain was leading the league at 32 ppg on a .579 FG% before shredding his knee.

Centers can't put up big numbers any more right? How do explain DeMarcus Cousins currently averaging 24 ppg and in 32 mpg? Or a way-past-prime, overweight, and out-of-shape Shaq hanging a 45 point game as recently as 2009? Hell, how about "the statue" Roy Hibbert, who has had games in which he failed to score...averaging 22.1 pg against the champion Heat in a seven game series? Give the current Cousins 42 mpg, and assuming that he could continue to score just as efficiently...and he puts up 31.5 ppg. Give him 45 mpg, and he would put up nearly 34 ppg. Oh, and a prime Shaq, playing in the '00 Finals... 38.6 ppg.

Shaq is credited with changing the rules in the early 00's, which supposedly hampered the center from being a dominant force. Yet, against one of the greatest defenses in NBA history, the '04 Pistons, he averaged 27 ppg on a .631 FG%. Which inluded a 38 point game. And again, as recently as 2009 a shell-of-a-Shaq could still hang a 45 point game.

The reality is...aside from Cousins, there are really no true "post-up" centers. Does anyone in their right mind honestly believe that prime Shaq, playing 40 mpg, couldn't put up a 30 ppg season...TODAY...especially against an NBA that often has teams that don't even have a center on the floor?

In any case, we know that Kobe was averaging 35.4 ppg, in 41 mpg, and in a league that averaged 97 ppg. Bump his playing time up to say a maximum of 45 mpg, and in a league that averages 100 ppg (today's NBA)...and he would have theoretically averaged ... guess what... 40.0 ppg. Could he have sustained 45 mpg? That would be the real question.


How about RPG? Granted, the 60's were an era of "inflated" rebounding. Today's NBA rebounds at about 67% of what a peak early 60's NBA did. BTW, that numbr declined considerably by the end of the 60's. In fact, in Wilt's last season, the NBA averaged 50.6 rpg per team. Today's NBA is averaging 42.7 rpg per team.

Regarding Wilt. In his last post-season, covering 17 games, and him playing 47 mpg, he averaged 22.5 rpg, in a post-season NBA that averaged 50.6 rpg...which translates to an even 19.0 rpg in the current NBA. The "bashers" would argue that Wilt wouldn't play 47 mpg, but given the fact that the average leader in post-season mpg has been 45 mpg in the last 10 years...let's cut Wilt's playing time down to 45 mpg. Guess what...Chamberlain would still have averaged 18.1 rpg.

But let's forget Wilt, and deal with realistic limits. How about Kevin Love, who just a few years ago, led the NBA in rpg, at 15.2 rpg...and in only 35.8 mpg? Had Love been able to rebound at that same rate, playing 42 mpg, he would have been at 17.8 rpg. Had he been capable of 45 mpg, and he would have put up a 19.1 rpg season.

Of course, the reality is, a player averaging 36 mpg is not likely to rebound at the same efficiency as a player playing 45 mpg. Which brings us back to Wilt again. At least in theory, had Wilt "only" played 42 mpg, instead of 47-48...his TRB%'s likely would have increased...perhaps considerably.

Not only that, but as Psileas and ThaRegula8r have pointed out...Wilt likely averaged 8 bpg in his career. Hell, in his LAST season he averaged 5.42 bpg. So what you ask? Blocked shots, and attempting to block shots HURTS rebounding. It negates a rebound, or most likely, deflects a rebound to someone else. And even an attempted block usually takes that player out of rebounding position.

Which brings me to Ben Wallace in his 02-03 season (less than 12 years ago.) He averaged 15.4 rpg, in 39.4 mpg, in an NBA that averaged 42.3 rpg per team. Not only that, but he also averaged 3.2 bpg. Unlike Love, Wallace was also a shot-blocker, and an intimidator. How many rpg did Wallace LOSE attempting to block shots?

In any case, if Love could have realistically averaged 19 rpg while playing 45 mpg, BUT, without blocking shots...what would a Wilt have been capable of in the current NBA?


Speaking of blocked shots...what is a realistic maximum bpg average in the current NBA? Think about this...Hassan Whiteside has averaged 2.4 bpg while playing 20 mpg. A couple of years ago, Serge Ibaka averaged 3.7 bpg...in... 27.2 mpg. Let's take Ibaka's number, and bump him up to 45 mpg shall we? Guess what... 6.1 bpg! The "official" NBA record is held by Mark Eaton at 5.56 (BTW, in only 34.3 mpg), which he accomplished exactly 30 years ago.
Even Whiteside's bpg would be at 5.4 bpg if he were somehow capable of keeping that pace up for a full 45 mpg.


Just some food for thought...

[LAZERUSS]

The thing is its impossible to be objective when comparing era because since there is no way to prove anything, all guesses will be based on preconceived beliefs and biases

The thing is...we have "bridges" that provide us with, at the very least, some relative comparisons.

For instance...Rick Barry. In his '66-67 season, he averaged 35.6 ppg on a .451 FG%, which BTW, was the highest full-time "non-Wilt" season IN the Chamberlain-era. Eight years later, in the 74-75 season, he averaged 30.6 ppg, on a .464 FG%.

John Havlicek averaged 19.2 ppg in that same 74-75 season. Which was about his average in the mid-60's. And, at his peak, post-Russell, he was putting up back-to-back 29 and 28 ppg seasons in the early 70's. Even at age , and in his last season in the league, in 77-78, he averaged 16 ppg.

Pete Maravich only played 11 seasons in the NBA, but in rookie season he averaged 23.2 ppg. At his peak...and this is important...in the post-ABA-NBA merged league of 76-77, he averaged a league-leading 31.1 ppg. In a same league that had an injury-riddled Bob McAdoo at 25.8 ppg. Just the year before, that, though, McAdoo led the NBA in scoring at 31.1 ppg, and the year before that, in a league that averaged 102.6 ppg, McAdoo averaged 34.5 ppg. He would never be the same player again, but he still hung a 45 point game on Kareem in 1979.

Artis Gilmore dominated the ABA from day one, and was still a force when the two leagues merged in the 76-77 season. In that 76-77 season, Gilmore, at age 27, averaged 18.6 ppg on a .522 FG%. Eight years later, in the 84-85 season, a 35 year old Gilmore averaged 19.1 ppg on a .623 FG%. In between, Gilmore had seasons as high as 23.7 ppg on a .575 FG%, and 17.9 ppg on a .670 FG%. Interesting too, that in 10 straight H2H games with Hakeem, in the 84-85 and 85-86 seasons, he averaged 23.7 ppg on...get this... a .677 FG%.

Robert Parish is an interesting "bridge." He played 21 seasons in the NBA, and faced centers from the 70's, like Kareem, Lanier, McAdoo, Moses,...and centers that played in the 90's (and beyond) like Hakeem, Robinson, Ewing, and Shaq. In his third year in the NBA, in 78-79, he averaged 17.2 ppg on a .499 FG%. Ten years later, in 88-89, he averaged 18.6 ppg on a .570 FG%. Even a 40 year old Parish, in limited minutes in the 93-94 season, averaged 11.7 ppg on a .491 FG%.

BTW, Parish, who played until the 96-97 season, claimed that Gilmore was stronger than Shaq.

Moses Malone, who played 21 seasons, and whose career spanned the ABA and the ABA-NBA Merger, was a dominant force in the late 70's thru the 82-83 season, and was still a 20 ppg scorer as late as the 88-89 season, and at age 33. He was arguably the best player in the world from '79 thru '83, and just abused a near-prime Kareem in the vast majority of their H2H's. And how about this...a way-past-his-prime Moses, in the 88-89 season, outrebounded Hakeem in their H2H's, by a 16.5 rpg to 13.0 rpg margin...in a season in which Hakeem led the NBA in rpg.

Of course, Hakeem's career spanned three decades, from the mid-80's thru the 90's, and into the early 00's. And while Hakeem's acknowledged prime was in the early-to-mid 90's, his statistical numbers were close from the mid-80's all the way thru the mid-90's. For instance, in his rookie season, in 84-85, and in a season in which he played 35.5 mpg, he averaged 20.6 ppg, 11.9 rpg, and a career high .538 FG%. His next season, in 85-86, he averaged 36.3 mpg, 23.5 ppg, 11.4 rpg, and on a .526 FG%. In his 88-89 season, he averaged 36.9 mpg, 24.8 ppg, led the league in rpg at 13.5 rpg, averaged 3.4 bpg, and shot .508 from the field. The very next season, in 89-90, he averaged 24.3 ppg, a league-leading 14.0 rpg, 4.6 bpg, and shot .501. Most Hakeem fans would argue that his peak season was probably 94-95, when he averaged 39.6 mpg, a career high 27.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 3.4 bpg, and shot .517 from the field. In any case, his numbers were remarkably consistent from his second season thru his prime seasons thru the 96-97 season.

And, of course, we know that Hakeem faced a young Shaq in the 94-95 Finals, as well. While he didn't outplay Shaq, he certainly played exceptionally against him. He outscored him, per game, 32.8 ppg to 28.0 ppg, but Shaq outrebounded Hakeem by a 12.5 rpg to 11.5 rpg margin, and outshot Hakeem by a staggering .595 to .483 margin.

Shaq's career is also an excellent example of a "bridge", as well. He played 20 seasons, and was arguably a top-5 player in the league for about half of those seasons, or 10 years. In his second season, in 93-94, a 21 year old Shaq averaged 39.8 mpg, 29.3 ppg, 13.2 rpg, 2.9 bpg, and shot .599 from the field. Six years later, and at his peak, and in the 99-00 season, a 27 year old Shaq averaged 40.0 mpg, 29.7 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 3.0 bpg, and on a .574 FG%...or nearly IDENTICAL to his second year in the league some six years earlier. In his 11th year in the league, in 02-03, Shaq was still averaging 27.5 ppg, 11.1 rpg, and shooting .575 from the floor. A 32 year old Shaq, in his 13th season, in 04-05, averaged 22.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg, and shot a career high .601 from the field. Again...just a remarkable consistency and covering the bulk of two different decades.

How about MJ? His career was from '84-85 thru his prime in 97-98, and he even returned to play two years in the 00's. In his third season, in 86-87, he averaged a career high 37.1 ppg on a .482 FG%. Eight years later, in 95-96, he was still averaging 30.4 ppg on a .495 FG%. Even into his 13th season, he was averaging 28.7 ppg on a .465 FG%. Hell, a washed-up MJ put up two seasons of 22.9 ppg and 20.0 at ages 38 and 39.

Finally...Kareem. His career nearly spanned FOUR decades (from his 69-70 season into his last season, in '88-89.) In his rookie season he averaged 28.8 ppg, and in the playoffs that same rookie year, he averaged a post-season career-high 35.2 ppg (on a .567 FG%.) In his second season, he averaged 31.7 ppg in 40.3 mpg, and on a .577 FG% (which, BTW, was his career highest FG%-to-league average differential, of .128.) At his peak, he averaged 44.2 mpg, 34.8 ppg, 16.6 rpg, 4.6 apg, and shot .574 from the field. In his 76-77 post-season, he slaughtered a peak Walton with a 31-14 .607 series. In his 11th season, in 79-80, he won the MVP, in a league with a peak Moses, a near-peak Dr.J, a young Bird, and a young Magic. He averaged 24.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 3.4 bpg, and shot a career high .604 from the field. In the Finals, and before spraining his ankle, he had averaged 33 ppg, 14 rpg, and shot .549 from the floor.

In his 84-85 season, a 37 year old Kareem averaged 22.0 ppg and shot .599 from the field. He also won a FMVP in a series in which he averaged 25.7 ppg, 9.0 rpg, a .604 FG%, and 5.2 apg. And if you don't include the first game, in which he was sleep-walking, he averaged 28.4 ppg.

And how about a 38-39 year old Kareem, in his 10 straight H2H's, with a 22-23 year old Hakeem? 32.0 ppg on a .621 FG%, which included three games of 40+, with a high game of 46 points, on 21-30 shooting, and in only 37 minutes. Hell, a 40 year old Kareem outscored a 24 year old Hakeem in their four H2H's, and outshot him by a .567 to .403 margin.

Oh, and 38-41 year old Kareem outscored Patrick Ewing in their 8 career H2H's by a 20.6 ppg to 18.8 ppg margin, and outshot Patrick by a .581 to .446 margin in those H2H's. Included was a game in which he outscored wing by a 40-9 margin, and outshot him by a 15-22 to 3-17 margin.

But how about a PEAK Kareem against an aging Nate Thurmond? In his 35 career H2H's with a full-time Thurmond, Kareem had six games of 30+, and six of less than 20. His high game against Nate was 34 points, and overall, he shot...get this... .447 from the field against Thurmond.

And I won't go into the details now, but a prime Chamberlain was FAR more dominant against the SAME centers that a PRIME Kareem would face a few years later. Guys like Reed, Dierking, Imhoff, Bellamy, and Thurmond.

Just some more food for thought...

[ImKobe]

http://weknowgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/didnt-read-lol-gif-4.gif

[SouBeachTalents]

This could be an ISH record for most words on one thread page

[Roundball_Rock]

Wow, so when Wilt scored 50 ppg the next highest guy was at 32 ppg? :bowdown:

[LAZERUSS]

Wow, so when Wilt scored 50 ppg the next highest guy was at 32 ppg? :bowdown:

He won scoring titles by margins of +18.8 ppg, and +10.8 ppg. And he won FG% titles by margins of .157 and .162.

[Roundball_Rock]

He won scoring titles by margins of +18.8 ppg, and +10.8 ppg. And he won FG% titles by margins of .157 and .162.

:bowdown:

[DaRkJaWs]

Technically Baylor averaged 38.4 ppg or so in that 61-62 season but didn't play many games because he was also in the military. So that number may not reflect what he would have done over a full season, or it may have, who knows.

[jongib369]

It's hard to say how much pace would affect his numbers, other than maybe with rebounding. PPG will depend entirely on how many shots he's taking, and there isn't a clear enough relationship with pace there imo.

TRB% should give you a fairly clear view of what his rebounding numbers would look like today. Fatigue is a factor here, but there's other competing forces here as well. Overall it's probably going to be pretty close, leaning towards the low side.

Assists are hard to judge due to the change in the way they are officiated.

Minutes can probably be approximated by looking at other athletes of comparable stamina, athleticism, and value. It's not enough to compare him on one or two of the three, as all three criteria play a part in how many minutes someone plays. In terms of pure stamina, Rodman is probably the best there's ever been, but his value didn't demand the minutes that a player like Chamberlain would command. Two guys that fit this bill pretty well are Jordan and Lebron; Wilt's minutes would probably resemble theirs.

something like
24-28 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 2-4 apg, 53-57 TS% for 60/61/64/65/66 Wilt
40 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 2 apg, 56-57 TS% for 62 Wilt
34 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 3 apg, 58-59% for 63 Wilt

peak Wilt I could see
18 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 8 apg, 68% TS

Russell Wilt something like
10-16 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 4-5 apg, 60-73% TS

4-6 blocks seems reasonable for the best shot blocker in history - when ignoring minutes played.

That's all assuming he plays the same roles he did back then, which I highly doubt. Having seen guys like Shaq and Kareem, coaches today would utilize Wilt's skill-set better than they could back then.
Some people might scoff at the idea of him averaging 8 assists today....which does sound insane...But when you consider the type of attention he'd get from the D, his back to the basket style of play which puts him in perfect potion to kick it out, and then the emphasis on the 3 ball making spacing for him better....He'd feast. And so would Kareem, and Shaq. I think Noahs usage rate was higher, but his 5.4 assists per 48 min translates to 7.3 ....so 6-8 sounds about right.

Especially considering the stricter assist rules in his day. Same rules as today back then it probably would have been 14 per game knowing the crazy numbers he put up :lol

[dreamwarrior]

Wilt was always the main scoring force on his teams. Today every team has 3 scorers, or 4 for the Cavs. Shaq was a beast because his team kept feeding him the ball, just like Wilts teams did for him except even more so. In today's NBA, Wilt wouldn't be fed the ball often enough to even score 30ppg. He'd also be dealing with bigger bigs and wouldn't be able to handle the physicality and so he'd probably average 35mpg at most...

[La Frescobaldi]

Wilt was always the main scoring force on his teams. Today every team has 3 scorers, or 4 for the Cavs. Shaq was a beast because his team kept feeding him the ball, just like Wilts teams did for him except even more so. In today's NBA, Wilt wouldn't be fed the ball often enough to even score 30ppg. He'd also be dealing with bigger bigs and wouldn't be able to handle the physicality and so he'd probably average 35mpg at most...

No he wasn't. Your first sentence is flat wrong; which makes all the rest of it perfectly useless.

[christian1923]

You should teach a college course about 60's&70's NBA.

You're passionate.

[LAZERUSS]

It's hard to say how much pace would affect his numbers, other than maybe with rebounding. PPG will depend entirely on how many shots he's taking, and there isn't a clear enough relationship with pace there imo.

TRB% should give you a fairly clear view of what his rebounding numbers would look like today. Fatigue is a factor here, but there's other competing forces here as well. Overall it's probably going to be pretty close, leaning towards the low side.

Assists are hard to judge due to the change in the way they are officiated.

Minutes can probably be approximated by looking at other athletes of comparable stamina, athleticism, and value. It's not enough to compare him on one or two of the three, as all three criteria play a part in how many minutes someone plays. In terms of pure stamina, Rodman is probably the best there's ever been, but his value didn't demand the minutes that a player like Chamberlain would command. Two guys that fit this bill pretty well are Jordan and Lebron; Wilt's minutes would probably resemble theirs.

something like
24-28 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 2-4 apg, 53-57 TS% for 60/61/64/65/66 Wilt
40 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 2 apg, 56-57 TS% for 62 Wilt
34 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 3 apg, 58-59% for 63 Wilt

peak Wilt I could see
18 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 8 apg, 68% TS

Russell Wilt something like
10-16 ppg, 14-16 rpg, 4-5 apg, 60-73% TS

4-6 blocks seems reasonable for the best shot blocker in history - when ignoring minutes played.

That's all assuming he plays the same roles he did back then, which I highly doubt. Having seen guys like Shaq and Kareem, coaches today would utilize Wilt's skill-set better than they could back then.

Excellent post, as always.

As you mentioned, Wilt played so many different roles in his career, and at his peak, he was the best in the league in many statistical categories.

I previously mentioned his 65-66 seasonal stat-line primarily because I believe that to have been the peak of his career. Most "experts" would probably label his '66-67 or '67-68 seasons, as his peak. Clearly, he could have been a much greater scorer in those two years, but for the first time in his career, he had quality (and healthy) teammates.

In his '65-66 season, he averaged 47.3 mpg, 33.5 ppg, 24.6 rpg, 5.2 apg, and shot .540 from the floor (in an NBA that shot .433 overall.) It would be the last full-time season he would lead the league in scoring (he was leading the league in scoring in his '69-70 season before he blew out his knee.)

In that season, he just annihilated his opposing HOF centers, as well. In the course of clearly outscoring, outrebounding, and outshooting them, and by huge margins (not sure how much he outshot Bellamy by, but in the known H2H's in the 60's, it was by substantial margins.) He hung a 45 point game on Thurmond, a 46 point game on Russell, and a 50 point game on Bellamy that year. Kareem would face Nate and Bells a few years later and was miles away from those games.

And to give you another example of just how dominant Wilt was against those three (Bellamy, Thurmond, and Russell), he faced them in a combined 34 games (including 5 playoff games against Russell.) In those 34 H2H's, Wilt outscored them by a combined 29-3-2 margin (each of them only had one game in their personal H2H's with Wilt in which they outscored him.)

And he also held a 16-7 margin in known rebounding H2H's. He shot a known .551 against Bellamy, and outshot Thurmond by a .482 to .382 margin. In his regular season H2H's with Russell, he outshot him by a .473 to .301 margin, and in their five playoff H2H's, Wilt outshot Russell by a .509 to .423 margin.

Enough on that. Again, reduce his scoring by FGAs and FTAs, down to 2015 levels, and raise his FG% efficiency to 2015 levels, and he would have averaged 29.0 ppg. Reduce his actual playing of 47.3 mpg, down to say 42 mpg, and he would have averaged 25.9 ppg.

The NBA averaged about 61 rpg in that season (after deducting team rebounds), and this year it is at about 43. So, his 24.6 rpg would translate to 17.3 rpg. Reduce his playing time down to 42 mpg, and he would have averaged 15.5 rpg.

He averaged 5.2 apg in '65-66, and as we know, recorded assists today generally match those of the 60's. However, his apg would have dropped to 4.6 apg in 42 mpg.

He shot .540 from the floor in '65-66, in an NBA that shot an eFG% of .433. Today's NBA is currently shooting at a .496 FG% clip. Wilt's .540 would translate to a .619 FG% in the current NBA.

So, using 42 mpg (which, BTW, Chamberlain's career low season, at age 35, was 42.3 mpg)...and his '65-66 season numbers would translate to about...

26 ppg, 16 rpg, 5 apg, and on a .619 FG%. Which are all within your porjections, as well. And you and I both agree at around 5-6 bpg.

Of course, that 42 mpg doesn't reflect what we could logically assume would be a higher all-around efficiency. So, at least in theory, you could probably bump up his overall stat-line by a small margin.

However, those numbers also don't take into account reduced competition. The "Wilt-bashers" claim that the current NBA is more "competitive" than it was in the 60's. But, the reality is, Chamberlain would seldom be facing a top-of-the-line center, and in fact, quite often he wouldn't be battling a center at all.

Think about this...Demarcus Cousins is currently averaging 24 ppg and in only 32 mpg. That projects to 31.5 ppg at a 42 mpg rate. I'm sorry, but Cousins is nowhere near as dominant as a prime Chamberlain would be. Just from a purely physical standpoint, Cousins would be far inferior. Cousins is probably around 290, stands 6-9 1/2, has a 7-5 1/2 wingspan, and a laughable max vertical of 27.5" (Shaq's was 36" BTW.) A mid-60's Wilt was between 290-310 lbs, much stronger, a full 7-1, with a 7-8 wingspan, and likely close to a 40" vertical.

So, a prime Chamberlain, with among the greatest post skills in NBA history, and capable of averaging 30 ppg against Russell and Thurmond, would likely easily outscore Cousins. If Cousins' projected 42 mpg pace scored at 31.5 ppg, then the assumption would have to be that Wilt would, at the very least, equal that, and more than likely, top it.

So, let's give a 65-66 Wilt about a 32 ppg average in 2014-15.

As far as rebounding goes, we know that the 6-8 Kevin Love, only playing 35.8 mpg, averaged 15.2 rpg just a few years ago. That projects to 17.8 rpg in 42 mpg. Again, Wilt would have dwarfed Love in every physical category. If Love could pull down rebounds at a near 18 rpg mark in 42 mpg, then Wilt, at the very least, would equal that, and likely top it.

So, I would argue that a '65-66 Wilt would be around an 18 rpg player today, and in 42 mpg.

Chamberlain's .540 FG% projects to .619 today, and I'll leave it at that...but "only" playing 42 mpg, instead of his actual 47.3 mpg would suggest that he would have been even more efficient.

His apg would likely be around the figure that you and I have suggested... 4-6 apg...so I will say 5 apg.

And we both agree that playing 42 mpg, he could probably attain 6 bpg. I'll even go down as low as 5 rpg.


Now, here is what I believe a '65-66 Wilt, playing 42 mpg, would be capable of in the current NBA...

32 ppg, 18 rpg, 5 apg, 5 bpg, and on about a .620 FG%.

Not really outrageous when Durant averaged 32 ppg just last season, and in only 38.5 mpg. Or again, Love averaging 15.2 rpg and in only 35.8 mpg. Or Ibaka averaging 3.7 bpg in 27 mpg. And Wilt had seasons of .683 and even .727 shooting in his career, and in leagues that shot far worse than the current NBA. Oh, and in his first nine games of his '69-70 season, he was averaging 32.2 ppg and on a .579 FG% (along with 20.0 rpg)...and in 45 mpg.

I know those numbers, overall, are difficult to fathom...but can you imagine what the league felt like back in the 60's?

[Im Still Ballin]

The problem is you're focusing on the things in life that don't really matter. When I was a kid I had hopes and dreams. We all did. But over time, the daily grind gets in the way and you miss the things that really matter, even though they are right in front of you, staring you in the face. I think the next time you should ask yourself "Am I on the right track here?". I don't mean to be rude but people like you I really pity. So maybe you could use the few brain cells you have and take advantage of the knowledge I have given you now. Good luck.

[LAZERUSS]

The problem is you're focusing on the things in life that don't really matter. When I was a kid I had hopes and dreams. We all did. But over time, the daily grind gets in the way and you miss the things that really matter, even though they are right in front of you, staring you in the face. I think the next time you should ask yourself "Am I on the right track here?". I don't mean to be rude but people like you I really pity. So maybe you could use the few brain cells you have and take advantage of the knowledge I have given you now. Good luck.

Ask yourself this...how much does this forum even matter in the grand scheme of things? And yet you have over 5000 posts.

[Im Still Ballin]

Ask yourself this...how much does this forum even matter in the grand scheme of things? And yet you have over 5000 posts.
Did you know that what you are talking about is limited by your false sense of reality? Maybe if you studied just a little bit harder while in school you wouldn't be blinded by these fallacies that have cast a cloud over your judgment. I once knew a guy like you who had everything he could ever want but in the end it meant nothing, because he never knew his true place in the grand scheme of things. I'm not trying to tell you how to live your life but, honestly buddy I think it's time you stepped down off of your high horse and looked life square in the eyes

[LAZERUSS]

How about a peak Kareem today?

IMHO, and playing 42 mpg... 32 ppg on about a .600 FG%.

[julizaver]

Hell, how about "the statue" Roy Hibbert, who has had games in which he failed to score...averaging 22.1 pg against the champion Heat in a seven game series?


Just exposing two things: How bad was HEAT at center position as I long maintained that there was no one true center (except ... Oden) in their roster. And how important is to have at least one 7ft body or "statue" as you called it, beacuse Rou Hibbert is exactly this.
A lot of people here compared Heat those 4 years with '90s Bulls, but as I have watched those games closely they have at least one seven footer at the floor all the time !!! So that is with the importance of the center position.
Had been Hassan Whiteside with the Heat last year we could probably spoke about Heat dynasty now.

We just see how Cavs are winning with Mozgov (16-2 since Lebron returns) or just watch what will be the Thunders record with Kanter (2-0 and counting). And I could go further ... With healthy line-up (Durant available) OKC would go all the way to the Finals where they'll meet the Cavs (if no major injury to starters of course)



But let's forget Wilt, and deal with realistic limits. How about Kevin Love, who just a few years ago, led the NBA in rpg, at 15.2 rpg...and in only 35.8 mpg? Had Love been able to rebound at that same rate, playing 42 mpg, he would have been at 17.8 rpg. Had he been capable of 45 mpg, and he would have put up a 19.1 rpg season.

Which brings me to Ben Wallace in his 02-03 season (less than 12 years ago.) He averaged 15.4 rpg, in 39.4 mpg, in an NBA that averaged 42.3 rpg per team. Not only that, but he also averaged 3.2 bpg. Unlike Love, Wallace was also a shot-blocker, and an intimidator. How many rpg did Wallace LOSE attempting to block shots?


Dennis Rodman did not chalenge a lot of shots (during his Bulls years) and he was really concentrating on rebounding. He was never a good shot-blocker, but he was a hell of defender with his quick feets and long arms unlike Love, who will never become great defender. He was averaging 18.7 rpg in 40 mpg in his best rebounding season. His blocks - 0.9. But as I stated in he was very good defender and compensate for lack of blocks with positioning and quick movement. I remembered him guarding Malone closely during both Bulls-Jazz finals and he had some success ... by preventing Malone to put some extra numbers and keep him in check. But with that assignment his rebounding numbers/stats decreased severally.

[SexSymbol]

The thing about boobs is it's just so subjective.
I love everything about them, the nipples, both small and large, and all sizes of breasts. But I get how many people would not like some sort of a breast.
Here in Lithuania, we mostly have those B+ boobs, that are great, fits in the hand, usually looks good to great and is overall an enjoyable experience for everybody involved.
Boobs are good