3 point shot for 1 billion or 1 million if you don't shoot

[Joyner82reload]

The shot will occur at halftime of the NBA Finals. You will obviously be shooting cold as the game will be going on up until that point. You will be given a months notice so you can practice the shot as much as you want over that timespan and will be given access to the arena when it's not being used for basketball/arena activity.

The shot is 1 billion if you make it and nothing if you miss. If you choose not to shoot you get 1 million.

[buddha]

shoot cold or do I get to warm up?

[ralph_i_el]

I'm taking the 10 million.
and I probably shoot ~30% on wide open 3's

[SugarHill]

10 mill

period

my 3 is Derozan

[T_L_P]

10 million, for sure.

That's life-changing money. Imagine taking the 3 point shot and going home with nothing. :oldlol:

[Joyner82reload]

shoot cold or do I get to warm up?

It will be nationally televised at halftime of an NBA finals game and you won't be given any practice shots in the gym up until the shot, obviously because the game will be going on.

The shot will be from straight away at the top of the key, or 24~ feet

[bagelred]

10 million, no question...can't pass up life changing money

[Akrazotile]

Gimme the damn ball :pimp:

[LoneyROY7]

:biggums:

Srs? Take the guaranteed 10 mil and then invest smartly.

[Kvnzhangyay]

No shit 10 million

Pretty sure even a fair amount of NBA players would choose the 10 million

[buddha]

You can practice as much as your want up until the shot. However it will be nationally televised and you won't be given any practice shots from an hour before up until the shot.

The shot will be from straight away at the top of the key, or 24~ feet

that is my hot spot but no way I would I take the odds of shooting a 3 without being in a rhythm when I can just pocket 10 mil for doing nothing.

[bagelred]

No shit 10 million

Pretty sure even a fair amount of NBA players would choose the 10 million

What? No they won't. Most of them are set for life and they are great shooters. Those guys are trying for the billion.

[KirbyPls]

Only betas shoot for the billion.

[SouBeachTalents]

Should have made it $100,000 instead, then you'd have a real dilemma. If you don't take the $10 million you're mad greedy AND a moron

[LoneyROY7]

Unless you are a FANTASTIC shooter (good NBA level), you'd be absolutely insane to go for the billion. Imagine the trauma if you missed the shot and passed up on 10 mil? Nah, bruh.

[305Baller]

10 million

[T_L_P]

10 million, no question...can't pass up life changing money

Even if that money never grows, that's basically $175,00 per year (assuming you're gonna live another 60 years or so).

I'd take it.

[jamal99]

I'm a pretty good 3pt shooter, but 10 million easy. It's already life changing amount...

[CavaliersFTW]

I'll take the 10 mil thanks. Easiest 10 mil I'll ever make :lol

[RoseCity07]

One shot for a billion. I could not resist it.

I'm a pretty good shooter. I'd make sure my legs were in the shot and mechanics are perfect.

[KirbyPls]

Should have made it $100,000 instead, then you'd have a real dilemma. If you don't take the $10 million you're mad greedy AND a moron


With my shooting skills and income, this is still not much of a choice. :lol

[Joyner82reload]

I updated it for 1 million, since many people think 10 million is too much to pass up

[Marchesk]

Obviously the percentages say take the shot, but given the ridiculous amount of pressure your typical shot percentages would never apply. What do you do?

What??? I wouldn't take the shot if my 3pt percentage was 75%. Not unless I already had millions. I would not risk walking away with nothing when 10 million is guaranteed.

And your typical ISH poster isn't shooting that great in front of millions on national TV.

[SugarHill]

I updated it for 1 million, since many people think 10 million is too much to pass up
:roll:

still the mill

[CavaliersFTW]

With my shooting skills and income, this is still not much of a choice. :lol
same... **** for 100 grand It'd pay off my student loans i'd still take that :roll:

Only when it becomes 10 grand or less would I start to dwell on the question but even then :lol

[RoundMoundOfReb]

I updated it for 1 million, since many people think 10 million is too much to pass up
Easily take the shot then. Lmao i probably shoot like 30% on straight-away wide open 3s.

[Marchesk]

I updated it for 1 million, since many people think 10 million is too much to pass up

This could be an interesting choice, but you need to make it a hard one.

Only morons are passing up guaranteed money that will change their lives unless they are already set.

[Joyner82reload]

same... **** for 100 grand It'd pay off my student loans i'd still take that :roll:

Only when it becomes 10 grand or less would I start to dwell on the question but even then :lol

:biggums:

10k is NOTHING. hell 100k is not much when you consider you're only getting 60k after taxes.

[KirbyPls]

same... **** for 100 grand It'd pay off my student loans i'd still take that :roll:

Only when it becomes 10 grand or less would I start to dwell on the question but even then :lol

Agree completely. Though the 100K wouldn't quite cover my student loans, so I'd buy a jet boat. :pimp:

[IncarceratedBob]

Not trying to brag, but 10 million really does nothing for me. It doesn't change my style of life. But a billion? Yeah, now we're talking. Plus I played some college hoops so I'm pretty confident in my ability to make a wide open shot.

[Genaro]

Gimme the 10 M for doing nothing. I would be set for life with that guarantee money instead of getting greedy and losing it all.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

lmao you guys are ****ing idiots...100k is nothing in the grand scheme of things. 20% chance at a billion >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[KirbyPls]

:biggums:

10k is NOTHING. hell 100k is not much when you consider you're only getting 60k after taxes.

Baller alert! :lol

[buddha]

those of us who were in the thread before the update will still be getting our 10 mil right?

[KirbyPls]

lmao you guys are ****ing idiots...100k is nothing in the grand scheme of things. 20% chance at a billion >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

~13% chance TBH for me at least.

[Marchesk]

10k or a million would be more interesting.

[T_L_P]

:biggums:

10k is NOTHING. hell 100k is not much when you consider you're only getting 60k after taxes.

Nobody mentioned taxes, tbh.

If that's $100, 000 in my currency, I'm taking the shot.

[KirbyPls]

those of us who were in the thread before the update will still be getting our 10 mil right?


Gosh, I sure hope so.

[SugarHill]

those of us who were in the thread before the update will still be getting our 10 mil right?
:roll:

[T_L_P]

Not trying to brag, but 10 million really does nothing for me. It doesn't change my style of life. But a billion? Yeah, now we're talking. Plus I played some college hoops so I'm pretty confident in my ability to make a wide open shot.

You're dirt poor, bro. Just deal with it.

[Marchesk]

Not trying to brag, but 10 million really does nothing for me. It doesn't change my style of life. But a billion? Yeah, now we're talking. Plus I played some college hoops so I'm pretty confident in my ability to make a wide open shot.

If you have that much, why are you on ISH?

[CavaliersFTW]

Not trying to brag, but 10 million really does nothing for me. It doesn't change my style of life. But a billion? Yeah, now we're talking. Plus I played some college hoops so I'm pretty confident in my ability to make a wide open shot.
Bruh, fund my YouTube channel please? :lol

[Marchesk]

100K or let Lebron shoot for the billion?

[SugarHill]

100K or let Lebron shoot for the billion?
:roll:

[CavaliersFTW]

lmao you guys are ****ing idiots...100k is nothing in the grand scheme of things. 20% chance at a billion >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You are vastly overrating my 3 point percentage particularly if it is an NBA 3 :lol

[KirbyPls]

How much time is left in the contest on the Lebron challenge?

[ralph_i_el]

if it's $1m or less I'm taking the shot. I've been lucky my whole life. I'd let it fly

[jamal99]

10k or a million would be more interesting.
In that case I'd take the shot pretty easily. Even tho 10k is nice in my country, still doesn't change enough in the bigger picture...

[Akrazotile]

Not trying to brag, but 10 million really does nothing for me. It doesn't change my style of life. But a billion? Yeah, now we're talking. Plus I played some college hoops so I'm pretty confident in my ability to make a wide open shot.

You'd still live a pretend life on the internet with that kind of dough?!?


Commitment. :applause:

[Joyner82reload]

If you have that much, why are you on ISH?

Not saying 10 mill isn't a ton of money, but it's really 6 million after taxes which would set you for life under most circumstances but you also have to take into consideration inflation. Most idiots wouldn't invest it wisely and in 30 years 6 million today will probably only be worth around 2.5 million. That's a large amount of money, but easy to blow through. 500k house+new 40k car every 5 years+20k/year in standard life expenses, property taxes, etc. that money can go quickly.

6 million today doesn't mean you can go live some baller lifestyle for the next 20 years. You would go broke in a few years.

[Straight_Ballin]

Not trying to brag, but 10 million really does nothing for me. It doesn't change my style of life. But a billion? Yeah, now we're talking. Plus I played some college hoops so I'm pretty confident in my ability to make a wide open shot.

If you don't have the necessary skill to properly invest the 10 million to turn it into a billion, then you probably shouldn't be handling your own money. Please hire someone competent to properly manage your money ASAP.

[IncarceratedBob]

If you don't have the necessary skill to properly invest the 10 million to turn it into a billion, then you probably shouldn't be handling your own money. Please hire someone competent to properly manage your money ASAP.
When you turn 16 I'll hire you. How bout that

[SugarHill]

Not saying 10 mill isn't a ton of money, but it's really 6 million after taxes which would set you for life under most circumstances but you also have to take into consideration inflation. Most idiots wouldn't invest it wisely and in 30 years 6 million today will probably only be worth around 2.5 million. That's a large amount of money, but easy to blow through. 500k house+new 40k car every 5 years+20k/year in standard life expenses, property taxes, etc. that money can go quickly.

And what if you miss? No money can go quickly, too. How confident are you in your shot that you're rationalizing taking a random chuck for a bill over 10 mill guaranteed?

Stop being ridiculous. :roll:

[CavaliersFTW]

Let's just say I took the risk 10k vs 1 billion (or even 1 million)... I'd probably burst into tears of joy and/or collapse in shock if I actually sank the shot because my 3 point percentage is atrocious and omfg how my life would change becoming insta-rich :oldlol:

[sundizz]

I'd take the shot....45 degree bank shot three ftw!
*the front page says 1 million to walk away or 1 billion to make it.

1 million is great money but i would still be going to work. 1 billion changes the lives of myself and the 20 closest around me + future generations of my family.

[Joyner82reload]

And what if you miss? No money can go quickly, too. How confident are you in your shot that you're rationalizing taking a random chuck for a bill over 10 mill guaranteed?

Stop being ridiculous. :roll:

And if you make it? You literally do whatever you want for the rest of your life and live like a king, literally. It's infinitely more difficult to make a billion in life than it is to make 10 million. People luck into 10 million fairly frequently, a billion? That's probably a 1 in 25,000,000

[IncarceratedBob]

If you're on this message board I recommend you all take the dough. It's basically 10k vs nothing for yall. Hitting a shot in a packed house is tough especially for you guys who have never shot in that type of environment before

[CavaliersFTW]

http://youtu.be/MCxg5v72-TE?t=1m5s

[24-Inch_Chrome]

I'll take the one million. Even if I was a reliable 3pt shooter (reallllllly streaky) I'd take the guaranteed money.

[CavaliersFTW]

If you're on this message board I recommend you all take the dough. It's basically 10k vs nothing for yall. Hitting a shot in a packed house is tough especially for you guys who have never shot in that type of environment before
Sad but true :oldlol:

[SugarHill]

And if you make it? You literally do whatever you want for the rest of your life and live like a king, literally. It's infinitely more difficult to make a billion in life than it is to make 10 million. People luck into 10 million fairly frequently, a billion? That's probably a 1 in 25,000,000
:rolleyes:

Point blank, are you a millionaire? If not, the way you're brushing this off is silly to me. If you are wealthy enough where you can take your chances, all the power to you. If you're not, then you must really have confidence in that shot of yours.

Either way, I wouldn't do it. I'm a bitch tho and my 3 pointer is complete and utter trash so it's not even an option. It would quite honestly be a chuck.

[STATUTORY]

And if you make it? You literally do whatever you want for the rest of your life and live like a king, literally. It's infinitely more difficult to make a billion in life than it is to make 10 million. People luck into 10 million fairly frequently, a billion? That's probably a 1 in 25,000,000

:biggums: define fairly frequently

how do people luck into 10 mil anyways? describe a scenario

[Joyner82reload]

:rolleyes:

Point blank, are you a millionaire? If not, the way you're brushing this off is silly to me. If you are wealthy enough where you can take your chances, all the power to you. If you're not, then you must really have confidence in that shot of yours.

Either way, I wouldn't do it. I'm a bitch tho and my 3 pointer is complete and utter trash so it's not even an option. It would quite honestly be a chuck.

http://www.easttexasradio.com/EastTexasJournal/8-11%20John%20B%20Stephens.pdf

Great grandfather:pimp:

[SugarHill]

:biggums: define fairly frequently

how do people luck into 10 mil anyways? describe a scenario
joyner lowkey sitting on a few mill :bowdown:

[Straight_Ballin]

When you turn 16 I'll hire you. How bout that

Try again son. Keep living your life through the internets though. I have no doubt that my net worth is more than yours IRL.

[CavaliersFTW]

http://www.easttexasradio.com/EastTexasJournal/8-11%20John%20B%20Stephens.pdf

Great grandfather:pimp:
Fund my YouTube channel and together we can rule the galaxy

http://images.dailytech.com/nimage/20797_Darth_Vader_Join_Me.png

[plowking]

I guess this all depends on how good a 3 point shooter you are, and in the end how risk adverse you are.

The initial 10 million offer was too much, seeing as it was already a life changing amount of money. 1 million really isn't that much after you pay for everything else and what not. Essentially it is a nice amount of money to make you very comfortable going forward.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

If you uploaded LeBron James footage you wouldn't even need funding.

[CavaliersFTW]

I guess this all depends on how good a 3 point shooter you are, and in the end how risk adverse you are.

The initial 10 million offer was too much, seeing as it was already a life changing amount of money. 1 million really isn't that much after you pay for everything else and what not. Essentially it is a nice amount of money to make you very comfortable going forward.
****ing terrible. It'd be a total waste for me to even touch the ball :oldlol:

[STATUTORY]

joyner lowkey sitting on a few mill :bowdown:

:oldlol: :oldlol: not so subtle i got more money than you thread i see

[bagelred]

Even if that money never grows, that's basically $175,00 per year (assuming you're gonna live another 60 years or so).

I'd take it.

You could just invest it and live off the interest.

[G0ATbe]

Take the shot without question. I'll just pray to Godbe beforehand.

[Joyner82reload]

:oldlol: :oldlol: not so subtle i got more money than you thread i see

This thread was never proposed to discuss my family at any point, this purpose is for a hypothetical scenario. I personally take the shot, 1 billion is too much to pass up. Even if it's 10 mm, I still think I take the shot. I think I'm probably making that shot 1 out of 10 times. You would be a LEGEND.

[CavaliersFTW]

If you uploaded LeBron James footage you wouldn't even need funding.
That isn't true.

But if someone offered to pay me enough money to quit my job and dedicate my time exclusively to bball mix/documentary making I'd mix Lebron footage all day I wouldn't give AF who it was :lol

[STATUTORY]

This thread was never proposed to discuss my family at any point, this purpose is for a hypothetical scenario. I personally take the shot, 1 billion is too much to pass up.

but you gotta scale down the prizes for regular peons on this forum, i think if you made it 300k vs a billion it would be a legit difficult decision for your average joe shmoe

[CavaliersFTW]

but you gotta scale down the prizes for regular peons on this forum, i think if you made it 300k vs a billion it would be a legit difficult decision for your average joe shmoe
I'd take the 300k in a heartbeat.

Terrible 3 point shooter. Poor.

300k pays off my student loans and gives me plenty of rent money, or heck, purchasing power to be a home owner.

[STATUTORY]

That isn't true.

But if someone offered to pay me enough money to quit my job and dedicate my time exclusively to bball mix/documentary making I'd mix Lebron footage all day I wouldn't give AF who it was :lol

how much would it take for you to renounce Wilt and his tall tales?

:lol

[IGOTGAME]

lol @ people thinking about trying for a billion. Most of these dudes aren't shooters and havent really had to work. I make 6 figures and I played college ball and I still play weekly on a court with an NBA 3 point line.

Guess what? no way in hell I take the shoot. You know how f'ing hard it is to save up 600k(about how much after taxes) working a decent job in a big city. No way I chance that on the first shoot I take in a huge arena with different lighting and a different ball. This is silly...wasnt aware people just make enough money to throw away a million dollars on a craft they never put the work into.

Flaw isnt how much people value certain amounts of money, its how much they overvalue their shooting ability.

[plowking]

****ing terrible. It'd be a total waste for me to even touch the ball :oldlol:

True. :oldlol:

I mean, common sense on an economic level tells you to take the shot, even if you think you have a 30% chance at hitting the 3 (even less), but damn you'd feel like an idiot if you miss. :oldlol:

I'm pretty lucky with shit like this, like getting pulled out of a crowd/audience and asked to attempt something. But you tell me it is for a billion? I'll probably pull the shot by 4 or 5 feet lol... and that is with the front on 3 being one of my favourite shots. Something I hit at maybe 60 or 70% alone. Any angle on it and I start sucking these days. :oldlol:

[Joyner82reload]

but you gotta scale down the prizes for regular peons on this forum, i think if you made it 300k vs a billion it would be a legit difficult decision for your average joe shmoe

I'm a gambling man. Then again, I got some luck on my side. My dad also won 2 mm on a scratch off ticket in early 2000's, but he also spent like 200k over 15 years up to that point playing them :lol

[STATUTORY]

I'd take the 300k in a heartbeat.

Terrible 3 point shooter. Poor.

300k pays off my student loans and gives me plenty of rent money, or heck, purchasing power to be a home owner.

the fact you actually ball regularly will make you more cautious, some of the kids I know that never play basketball are actually more delusional about their prospect of draining shots like they pros

[JimmyMcAdocious]

Say, even if you hit 75% in practice. Let's be real, unless you are used to the pressure or innately cold blooded af, the pressure (national tv, or very least in front of a max cap NBA Finals crowd) would get to most of us.

I've played basketball and other sports in front of some rowdy crowds and have stood (not played) on a legit college court when the place was packed. It's a different animal that's pretty difficult to ignore. Nevermind the money factor.

[STATUTORY]

I'm a gambling man. Then again, I got some luck on my side. My dad also won 2 mm on a scratch off ticket in early 2000's, then again he spent like 200k over 15 years up to that point playing them :lol

on top of hitting the jackpot at birth?!

:bowdown: :bowdown:

[IGOTGAME]

Say, even if you hit 75% in practice. Let's be real, unless you are used to the pressure or innately cold blooded af, the pressure (national tv, or very least in front of a max cap NBA Finals crowd) would get to most of us.

I've played basketball and other sports in front of some rowdy crowds and have stood (not played) on a legit college court when the place was packed. It's a different animal that's pretty difficult to ignore.

exactly

[CavaliersFTW]

how much would it take for you to renounce Wilt and his tall tales?

:lol
Give me a million and I'll never sing his praises again. I'd just become the world's biggest Bill Russell, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor stan instead :lol

[PistonsFan#21]

Anybody here got a link with the shooting percentage during the NBA 3pt contests?

[Joyner82reload]

You're not expecting to make this shot 75% of the time. You're gambling hoping you can make it 20% of the time. I would be interested in how many people would be willing to gamble their net worth for a 20% chance of increasing it by 100000%

[SugarHill]

Give me a million and I'll never sing his praises again. I'd just become the world's biggest Bill Russell, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor stan instead :lol

So, say I offered 500k

you'd say nah? :yaohappy:

I like you

[HomieWeMajor]

I'd take the million then fly Lebron23 over from the Phillipines and pay him to fight ISH posters for my amusement.

[Cocaine80s]

Wtf would i do with a billion anyways


Give me the 10 mil

[RoundMoundOfReb]

I'd take the million then fly Lebron23 over from the Phillipines and pay him to fight ISH posters for my amusement.
:roll:

[IGOTGAME]

You're not expecting to make this shot 75% of the time. You're gambling hoping you can make it 20% of the time. I would be interested in how many people would be willing to gamble their net worth for a 20% chance of increasing it by 100000%

you can't make that shot 20% of the time. Best case scenario is 3-5% for most people here(the line is further back, the ball is much different, the lighting on NBA courts is different and the pressure would be insane) and they would be giving up money that would take them a lifetime to amass.

[SugarHill]

I'd take the million then fly Lebron23 over from the Phillipines and pay him to fight ISH posters for my amusement.
:roll:

[Joyner82reload]

you can't make that shot 20% of the time. Best case scenario is 3-5% for most people here(the line is further back, the ball is much different, the lighting on NBA courts is different and the pressure would be insane) and they would be giving up money that would take them a lifetime to amass.

3-5%? You're crazy. This isn't a half court shot. If you practice for a month and can even remotely compose yourself you're going to be at 10%.

[CavaliersFTW]

I'd take the million then fly Lebron23 over from the Phillipines and pay him to fight ISH posters for my amusement.
:roll:

What about playing other posters 1 on 1?

[KungFuJoe]

Even a bil is too much to make this a hard choice.

It should be 1 mil vs 10k to make this more realistic.

That's a tough one in my book. 10k is nice. Not a shitload of money but it's a nice vacation somewhere. I could have the time of my life in Vegas with that much money.

But a mil? That's huge but it's not life changing. You're not quitting your job and sipping Dom every night.

And odds of making it are very low.

Honestly I go for the mil. 10k is nice but I make that in a couple days selling mix tapes from the back of my van.

[CavaliersFTW]

3-5%? You're crazy. This isn't a half court shot. If you practice for a month and can even remotely compose yourself you're going to be at 10%.
Yes but the pressure though... A ****ING BILLION riding on the shot!? Nationally televised? An arena of people holding their breath!??!?!?!??!?

I'd be surprised if anyone could keep their cool and just calmly and collectively throw up a shot with good form (if they're lucky to have it, unlike me) and good concentration.

[IGOTGAME]

3-5%? You're crazy. This isn't a half court shot. If you practice for a month and can even remotely compose yourself you're going to be at 10%.

had to reread the OP. with a month of practice it would prob be about 10% for people who have played before. Missed the practice part. The ability to be calm would be insane. idk if it would be possible for 99% of the population

[PistonsFan#21]

you can't make that shot 20% of the time. Best case scenario is 3-5% for most people here(the line is further back, the ball is much different, the lighting on NBA courts is different and the pressure would be insane) and they would be giving up money that would take them a lifetime to amass.

any decent shooter would easily make a wide open 3 shot over 20% of the time.

Theres more than 3% of people that hit a half court shot without a month of practicing it before hand

[ralph_i_el]

you can't make that shot 20% of the time. Best case scenario is 3-5% for most people here(the line is further back, the ball is much different, the lighting on NBA courts is different and the pressure would be insane) and they would be giving up money that would take them a lifetime to amass.

I shoot with different balls on different courts all the time. I'm probably not going to hit it, but I'm taking that shot for $1b. Maybe my opinion is different because my family has a little money, but even a 15% shot at a billion is a great opportunity.

[2010splash]

A lot of you guys must suck at ball and/or have never played.

A wide open, uncontested 3-point shot I can hit in my backyard/at the gym 8-9 times out of 10.

It's a very easy shot and 1 million is nothing. Definitely go for the billion.

[IGOTGAME]

any decent shooter would easily make a wide open 3 shot over 30% of the time

why are we assuming ISH posters are decent shooters from NBA 3?

[ralph_i_el]

I'd take the million then fly Lebron23 over from the Phillipines and pay him to fight ISH posters for my amusement.

haha "posters"? He'd be dead after the first fight.

[Marchesk]

How about this modification? If you don't take the shot, you get 10k. If you take it and make it, you get 1 billion. But if you miss, you get turned over to this dude:

http://i.imgur.com/VyUO9CV.gif

[Joyner82reload]

A lot of you guys must suck at ball and/or have never played.

A wide open, uncontested 3-point shot I can hit in my backyard/at the gym 8-9 times out of 10.

It's a very easy shot and 1 million is nothing. Definitely go for the billion.

And you're seriously underestimating the pressure on that shot. That might be the most pressure ever put on one individual in the history of humanity that did not involve putting someone's actual life at risk.

[CavaliersFTW]

To give perspective of a Billion...

Michael Jordan became the first billionaire basketball player after A LIFETIME of achievements as a GOAT tier NBA player.. and post-player career as a franchise owner/principal chairmen.

You, on one shot alone, are attempting to equal his lifetime's work as an absolute master of a multi-billion dollar industry, to achieve that same net worth :lol

[CavaliersFTW]

How about this modification? If you don't take the shot, you get 10k. If you take it and make it, you get 1 billion. But if you miss, you get turned over to this dude:

http://www.bobcatterritory.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ramsay-yara.jpg
I'd walk away from taking the shot for free if the alternative is facing some dude that's gonna chop me into pieces :lol

[IGOTGAME]

I shoot with different balls on different courts all the time. I'm probably not going to hit it, but I'm taking that shot for $1b. Maybe my opinion is different because my family has a little money, but even a 15% shot at a billion is a great opportunity.

I would rather take my chances playing an NBA player one on one. I just don't think many people hit that shot, including NBA players. 10 mill is something that is not easy to come by...i'm not hurting for money but it would give me all the freedom I need to stop practicing law and I that is all I desire in this world right now.

Also, think of you mental health(us non-millionaires): you would prob be depressed for a long time after this event if you gave up 10 million to shot a jumpshot. Imagine the stories of the accountant giving up 10 million dollar to risk it all on a jumper...

My number would be the amount that would allow me to retire tomorrow. Anything else and I'll shoot.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

I'd walk away from taking the shot for free if the alternative is facing some dude that's gonna chop me into pieces :lol
Do you watch game of thrones?

[Marchesk]

I'd walk away from taking the shot for free if the alternative is facing some dude that's gonna chop me into pieces :lol

Uh, it's a lot worse than that. A billion or you get tortured by Ramsey Snow. I'd be curious to know if anyone on ISH would even flip a coin for that.

[CavaliersFTW]

A lot of you guys must suck at ball and/or have never played.

A wide open, uncontested 3-point shot I can hit in my backyard/at the gym 8-9 times out of 10.

It's a very easy shot and 1 million is nothing. Definitely go for the billion.
It's people like you who would piss their pants and air ball the shot on national television.

I'd walk home earning the easiest 10k, 100k, 300k, 1m or w/e amount was the alternative in my life.

I'd flip the boo'ing disappointed crowd off with the biggest smile on my face.

I'm not as brave as you, your brick would entertain them at least though :applause:

[CavaliersFTW]

Do you watch game of thrones?
No is that some character from that show?

[SugarHill]

Do you watch game of thrones?
http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2012/02/hSbE0.gif

[Thunderfan86]

Even a bil is too much to make this a hard choice.

It should be 1 mil vs 10k to make this more realistic.

That's a tough one in my book. 10k is nice. Not a shitload of money but it's a nice vacation somewhere. I could have the time of my life in Vegas with that much money.

But a mil? That's huge but it's not life changing. You're not quitting your job and sipping Dom every night.

And odds of making it are very low.

Honestly I go for the mil. 10k is nice but I make that in a couple days selling mix tapes from the back of my van.
I would go for the 1 mil in this scenario, 10k just isn't enough. I wouldn't even be upset about the 10k if I missed on my attempt.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

No is that some character from that show?

Yes. He's a psycho. He cuts off people's *****, removes their skin while they're still alive...

[Joyner82reload]

I would rather take my chances playing an NBA player one on one. I just don't think many people hit that shot, including NBA players. 10 mill is something that is not easy to come by...i'm not hurting for money but it would give me all the freedom I need to stop practicing law and I that is all I desire in this world right now.

Also, think of you mental health(us non-millionaires): you would prob be depressed for a long time after this event if you gave up 10 million to shot a jumpshot. Imagine the stories of the accountant giving up 10 million dollar to risk it all on a jumper...

My number would be the amount that would allow me to retire tomorrow. Anything else and I'll shoot.

This is 1 million, not 10 million, vs 1 billion.

[2010splash]

It's people like you who would piss their pants and air ball the shot on national television.

I'd walk home earning the easiest 10k, 100k, 300k, 1m or w/e amount was the alternative in my life.

I'd flip the boo'ing disappointed crowd off with the biggest smile on my face.

I'm not as brave as you, your brick would entertain them at least though :applause:
10k, 100k, 300k and 1m is a joke. None of that is enough money to retire and be set for life. You would still have to work and make a living to support yourself financially. 1b is enough to set up your blood line through the 30th century.

And given time to train and practice, I would practice under the loudest, most raucous, distracting and hostile conditions imaginable. I'd blast stereos to full volume and pay hundreds or even thousands of people to scream all kinds of insults/obscenities during my practice shots until I could consistently hit 8-9 out of every 10 threes (again, something I can easily do now minus all the distractions).

Block out all the noise and it's just a simple shot. I'd win the billion (or at least give myself an 80-90% chance to do so).

[Marchesk]

Yes. He's a psycho. He cuts off people's *****, removes their skin while they're still alive...

I hear it's worse in the book. Theon is utterly broken and looks like a total wreck. He's broken on the show, but he looks okay.

[Marchesk]

No is that some character from that show?

Yeah, he gets his jollies from torturing and killing people. Totally breaks a main character and remolds his personality into his slave with a new name.

[Joyner82reload]

10k, 100k, 300k and 1m is a joke. None of that is enough money to retire and be set for life. You would still have to work and make a living to support yourself financially. 1b is enough to set up your blood line through the 30th century.

And given time to train and practice, I would practice under the loudest, most raucous, distracting and hostile conditions imaginable. I'd blast stereos to full volume and pay hundreds or even thousands of people to scream all kinds of insults/obscenities during my practice shots until I could consistently hit 8-9 out of every 10 threes (again, something I can easily do now minus all the distractions).

Block out all the noise and it's just a simple shot. I'd win the billion (or at least give myself an 80-90% chance to do so).

You miss the shot and then are out thousands of dollars from paying people to help you train for the shot.

You end up with less money than you did before the shot :lol

[RoundMoundOfReb]

I hear it's worse in the book. Theon is utterly broken and looks like a total wreck. He's broken on the show, but he looks okay.
it is

[Marchesk]

Block out all the noise and it's just a simple shot. I'd win the billion (or at least give myself an 80-90% chance to do so).

But you only get that one shot in the stadium. It's not like you're in a rhythm. I doubt it's an 80-90% chance.

[bigkingsfan]

Find a billionaire investor, if you miss you get 10 million, if you make then you split the profits.

[CavaliersFTW]

Find a billionaire investor, if you miss you get 10 million, if you make then you split the profits.
Bro... you solved it :eek:

****, if you had like a 2 week notice too, you could be practicing that shot in the gym 24/7 the whole time cause you could have had the security to walk out on your job :bowdown:

[Marchesk]

Find a billionaire investor, if you miss you get 10 million, if you make then you split the profits.

Whoa. Someone on ISH has smarts.

[Joyner82reload]

Find a billionaire investor, if you miss you get 10 million, if you make then you split the profits.

I should have excluded hedging. I'm sure someone like Cuban would bet 25 million on you if you demonstrated the ability to hit the shot at 40% in practice.

[j3lademaster]

:biggums:

10k is NOTHING. hell 100k is not much when you consider you're only getting 60k after taxes.

> Claims 10k is nothing like he's some baller
> has no idea how taxes work

So are you a pro athlete or a rapper?

[gcvbcat]

I'll take a million dollars.

[R.I.P.]

I just switch it around. I find myself 20 billionaires, who are bored that buy-in for 500k each. If I make it each of them gets 20 million dollars, otherwise I keep their buy-ins. Problem solved. :pimp:

[GreggPopazit]

$1 million, easy.

[hahaitme]

even if you were a 75% (open) shooter, you'd still be an idiot to take the shot

[T_L_P]

Find a billionaire investor, if you miss you get 10 million, if you make then you split the profits.

I'd Golden Balls his ass.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3Uos2fzIJ0&t=2m50s

[nathanjizzle]

why perplex yourselves with a scenario that would never happen?

[Marchesk]

why perplex yourselves with a scenario that would never happen?

You would never be a philosopher.

[bluechox2]

id take the shot...u have a chance at a billion...take it...

[sundizz]

I'd take the shot....45 degree bank shot three ftw!
*the front page says 1 million to walk away or 1 billion to make it.

1 million is great money but i would still be going to work. 1 billion changes the lives of myself and the 20 closest around me + future generations of my family.

[Marchesk]

id take the shot...u have a chance at a billion...take it...

The other way to look at it is you have a chance of losing 10 million or 1 million or 100k or whatever amount most everyday people would consider significant. I'm not losing significant money over a chance. It has to be an amount I can live with losing out on if I miss the shot (thereby giving up the guaranteed money).

[bballnoob1192]

The other way to look at it is you have a chance of losing 10 million or 1 million or 100k or whatever amount most everyday people would consider significant. I'm not losing significant money over a chance. It has to be an amount I can live with losing out on.

you arn't losing anything......wtf kind of logic is that. anyways of course you take the shot for 1 billion. u could buy an NBA team with that kind of money :cheers: :banana: :banana: :pimp: :rockon: :rockon:

[Dro]

Easy choice, I'm taking the easy million. You crazy?

[deja vu]

Let me see. For 1 million (OP doesn't say if it's tax free), I'll have:

- a big mansion-like 5-bedroom house for $150,000. Take note that I live in a developing country.

- a nice but not too fancy car for $50,000

- a nice 10 hectare farmland for $300,000.

I still have $500,000 left for personal expenses, gifts, investments, savings and for starting a business. I'd probably open a Pizza Hut or McDonalds franchise. If not, I'll put up a small beach resort or hotel.

So yeah $1 million is life changing for me.

[IGOTGAME]

id take the shot...u have a chance at a billion...take it...

technically you have a chance at a billion every day. You just have to hustle

[FLDFSU]

Well according to my contracts professor, most would take the one million dollars because most people are risk adverse.

The rational thing to do though would be to go after the one billion.

[STATUTORY]

Well according to my contracts professor, most would take the one million dollars because most people are risk adverse.

The rational thing to do though would be to go after the one billion.

https://backtothethames.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/inigomontoya.jpg
rational =/= risk neutral

[Arhen]

I would ask KG to front me a million if I miss the shot, and then if I hit I would give him 500mil, with practice I could get back to making a decent clip, not like someone is guarding you, get to at least 60% with practice.

[Dro]

Well according to my contracts professor, most would take the one million dollars because most people are risk adverse.

The rational thing to do though would be to go after the one billion.
Yeah, definitely not rational to me. A free throw maybe, and then that would even be a stretch. I don't see how any even remotely chooses the billion unless they've had a decent amount of money throughout their lives...Anybody else, like me, I don't understand why they would not take the million. Even if it were a layup, I'd still probably take the million...

[ralph_i_el]

https://backtothethames.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/inigomontoya.jpg
rational =/= risk neutral
rational would be taking the option with the highest expected rate of return.

If you have a 1% chance of hitting the shot, your expected return on taking the shot is (.01)($1B) or $10,000,000

So shooting the $1B shot is the mathematically rational option if the opportunity cost is under $10 million.

[CavaliersFTW]

Yeah, definitely not rational to me. A free throw maybe, and then that would even be a stretch. I don't see how any even remotely chooses the billion unless they've had a decent amount of money throughout their lives...Anybody else, like me, I don't understand why they would not take the million. Even if it were a layup, I'd still probably take the million...
For a layup I'd seriously consider going for a billion. It would be the most exciting moment/layup of my life but I think I could do it :lol

[IGOTGAME]

rational would be taking the option with the highest expected rate of return.

If you have a 1% chance of hitting the shot, your expected return on taking the shot is (.01)($1B) or $10,000,000

So shooting the $1B shot is the mathematically rational option if the opportunity cost is under $10 million.

that only makes sense on paper.

You have to take into account an individuals utility curve and an their ability to amass money.

[STATUTORY]

rational would be taking the option with the highest expected rate of return.

you are conflating concepts

[Fire Colangelo]

I probably wouldnt be able to hit a freethrow, let alone at 3 from that kind of pressure :lol

[Marchesk]

rational would be taking the option with the highest expected rate of return.

If you have a 1% chance of hitting the shot, your expected return on taking the shot is (.01)($1B) or $10,000,000

So shooting the $1B shot is the mathematically rational option if the opportunity cost is under $10 million.

Let's raise it to 1 trillion and you have a 1 in a 10 thousand chance. You expected return is now $100,000,000.

So it's rational to take a 1 in a 10,0000 chance unless the money is greater than 100 mil? :biggums:

[Marchesk]

you arn't losing anything......wtf kind of logic is that. anyways of course you take the shot for 1 billion. u could buy an NBA team

You're losing the guaranteed money by taking the shot.

What team are you buying if you make it, the Knicks?

[yobore]

Trying for 1 billion is not more rational for me. Maybe it has higher expected return but not higher expected utility for me.

For me $1 million is a comfortable few decades if not life if I invest right. $1 billion dollars is that + a lot of toys.

To put it another way, that first million would probably mean as much to me as the next 999 million. That wouldn't be the case for people who are already wealthy but I think most people would agree

[ralph_i_el]

Let's raise it to 1 trillion and you have a 1 in a 10 thousand chance. You expected return is now $100,000,000.

So it's rational to take a 1 in a 10,0000 chance unless the money is greater than 100 mil? :biggums:

a one in 10 thousand shot at a TRILLION DOLLARS?
**** yes I'm taking that. I'd be the single most powerful man on the planet, for much better chances than your average lottery.

I mean, you're right, I'd take the money because I don't have the cahones to take the 1/10k chance.

HOWEVER, I definitely have a better than 1% chance of hitting the billion dollar shot.


If I had a trillion dollars I'd buy the entire damn NBA and make it even more like the WWE. I'd have celebrity refs. I'd ****ing trip players. I'd have teams that were just bad guys on purpose, and I'd make stars pull heel turns in the middle of games. I'd have strippers come out at halftime and do paternity tests to see which player is her baby-daddy.

[Marchesk]

If I had a trillion dollars I'd buy the entire damn NBA and make it even more like the WWE. I'd have celebrity refs. I'd ****ing trip players. I'd have teams that were just bad guys on purpose, and I'd make stars pull heel turns in the middle of games.

Screw a sports league, I'd buy Australia, and then start building my robot army.

[Joyner82reload]

Let's raise it to 1 trillion and you have a 1 in a 10 thousand chance. You expected return is now $100,000,000.

So it's rational to take a 1 in a 10,0000 chance unless the money is greater than 100 mil? :biggums:

I would probably take it for a trillion. A trillion makes you, as an individual, one of the 15 most powerful COUNTRIES in the world. You could almost buy the continent of Australia with a trillion dollars.

[FLDFSU]

https://backtothethames.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/inigomontoya.jpg
rational =/= risk neutral

What the heck are you taking about?

Rational means logical. Hence, according to my Contracts professor, if people are logical they would take the chance at 1 billion dollars rather than the sure 1 million.

But according to him most people, in this situation, would be very risk adverse, and therefore not behave rationally.

He would argue (and so would I) that a person like Bill Gates would be more inclined to behave rationally (in this context) because 1 million would not provide enough incentives to behave irrationally.

Whereas if you took a kid poor kid from the world's poorest country and said 1 billion for attempting the shot or 1,000...he take the 1,000 (which of course even more irrational).

[STATUTORY]

What the heck are you taking about?

Rational means logical. Hence, according to my Contracts professor, if people are logical they would take the chance at 1 billion dollars rather than the sure 1 million.

But according to him most people, in this situation, would be very risk adverse, and therefore not behave rationally.

He would argue (and so would I) that a person like Bill Gates would be more inclined to behave rationally (in this context) because 1 million would not provide enough incentives to behave irrationally.

Whereas if you took a kid poor kid from the world's poorest country and said 1 billion for attempting the shot or 1,000...he take the 1,000 (which of course even more irrational).

the concept you are referring to is risk neutrality, that the proposition with the highest expected return is the best

but utility =/= return and rationality has nothing to do with being risk neutral

someone can be risk averse and be perfectly rational. they are simply two different concepts.

In fact do you understand the concept of diminishing returns? if you think there is diminishing returns to value of money then guess what you are in actuality risk averse.

[Marchesk]

Rational means logical. Hence, according to my Contracts professor, if people are logical they would take the chance at 1 billion dollars rather than the sure 1 million.

But according to him most people, in this situation, would be very risk adverse, and therefore not behave rationally.

I don't understand why it's more rational, other than as a pure mathematical wager. In real life, the more important thing is to secure your future, which a guaranteed million (or certainly 10) would do for a majority of people.

Therefore, it's rational to secure your future as an average person, than to risk gaining nothing on less than very high odds.

[ralph_i_el]

the concept you are referring to is risk neutrality, that the proposition with the highest expected return is the best

but utility =/= return and rationality has nothing to do with being risk neutral

someone can be risk averse and be perfectly rational. they are simply two different concepts.

In fact do you understand the concept of diminishing returns? if you think there is diminishing returns to value of money then guess what you are in actuality risk averse.

sorry, I was viewing this from the prospective of a firm (my background is finance), whereas you're looking at it from a microeconomic prospective which is more applicable in this situation.

[IGOTGAME]

What the heck are you taking about?

Rational means logical. Hence, according to my Contracts professor, if people are logical they would take the chance at 1 billion dollars rather than the sure 1 million.

But according to him most people, in this situation, would be very risk adverse, and therefore not behave rationally.

He would argue (and so would I) that a person like Bill Gates would be more inclined to behave rationally (in this context) because 1 million would not provide enough incentives to behave irrationally.

Whereas if you took a kid poor kid from the world's poorest country and said 1 billion for attempting the shot or 1,000...he take the 1,000 (which of course even more irrational).

I think you are taking your contract professor out of context or he is a moron.



the concept you are referring to is risk neutrality, that the proposition with the highest expected return is the best

but utility =/= return and rationality has nothing to do with being risk neutral

someone can be risk averse and be perfectly rational. they are simply two different concepts.

In fact do you understand the concept of diminishing returns? if you think there is diminishing returns to value of money then guess what you are in actuality risk averse.

nailed it.

[Marchesk]

Rational means logical. Hence, according to my Contracts professor, if people are logical they would take the chance at 1 billion dollars rather than the sure 1 million..

Let's raise the reward to the GWP (close to 90 trillion), but your odds are now 1 in a million. That gives you a higher return (90 mil) than taking the guaranteed money, but your odds are very low. Is it still the rational thing to do?

(But if you win, you own the entire world.)

[FLDFSU]

Yeah, definitely not rational to me. A free throw maybe, and then that would even be a stretch. I don't see how any even remotely chooses the billion unless they've had a decent amount of money throughout their lives...Anybody else, like me, I don't understand why they would not take the million. Even if it were a layup, I'd still probably take the million...

Put another way.

Would you rather have a chance at a 3 point shot for $1,000.00, or $1.00 guaranteed?

In this situation, it is unlikely that you are risk adverse, therefore you would behave rationally...go after the $1,000.00.

The poor kid from the poorest 3rd world country would still be risk adverse, and take the $1.00.

[gts]

I'm taking the million...

[Marchesk]

Put another way.

Would you rather have a chance at a 3 point shot for $1,000.00, or $1.00 guaranteed?

In this situation, it is unlikely that you are risk adverse, therefore you would behave rationally...go after the $1,000.00.


The key is understanding the risk aversion at a certain monetary level. That's when it becomes rational in RL to walk away with the money.

[Dro]

Put another way.

Would you rather have a chance at a 3 point shot for $1,000.00, or $1.00 guaranteed?

In this situation, it is unlikely that you are risk adverse, therefore you would behave rationally...go after the $1,000.00.

The poor kid from the poorest 3rd world country would still be risk adverse, and take the $1.00.

I'm pretty sure that poor kid would still take the risk for $1,000. Now if it were a chance at $100,000 or guaranteed $10,000. They would probably take the $10,000...hell so would I. I would probably take $1,000 in that scenario too:lol

[tpols]

Whether you'd take the chance at 1 bil or sure 1 million all depends on your current worth. If you're in the negative or close to 0.. you'd be retarded to turn down a 1000000% return for a 10000000000%

[FLDFSU]

Trying for 1 billion is not more rational for me. Maybe it has higher expected return but not higher expected utility for me.

For me $1 million is a comfortable few decades if not life if I invest right. $1 billion dollars is that + a lot of toys.

To put it another way, that first million would probably mean as much to me as the next 999 million. That wouldn't be the case for people who are already wealthy but I think most people would agree

Correct. Neither is it for me. Neither is it for the vast majority of Americans.

But from a pure logic perspective: going for the Billion is indeed more logical.

Just like foregoing $1 for a chance at $1,000 is more rational.

[FLDFSU]

The key is understanding the risk aversion at a certain monetary level. That's when it becomes rational in RL to walk away with the money.

I agree. The real question is at what point does one become risk adverse.

For me I would take $50,000.00 even for a chance at 1 billion in this example.

I have student loans that I would rather wipe out...

[tpols]

Put another way.

Would you rather have a chance at a 3 point shot for $1,000.00, or $1.00 guaranteed?

In this situation, it is unlikely that you are risk adverse, therefore you would behave rationally...go after the $1,000.00.

The poor kid from the poorest 3rd world country would still be risk adverse, and take the $1.00.
:wtf:

No.. he wouldnt.. that's a few days wages to him.. vs months or even a year for making the shot. If someone offered me a guaranteed 2000 or take a shot for 200,000 you can bet your ass I'd be taking that shot.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

rational would be taking the option with the highest expected rate of return.

If you have a 1% chance of hitting the shot, your expected return on taking the shot is (.01)($1B) or $10,000,000

So shooting the $1B shot is the mathematically rational option if the opportunity cost is under $10 million.

Not really, though. there are diminishing returns as you increase the money. there is a huge difference between making 20,000 a year and 640,000 a year but there is no real difference to your life if you're making 2 billion or 64 billion a year.

there's not necessarily a linear relationship where your life will improve in a manner dirrectly proportional to the amount of money you have...

if you plotted quality of life vs amount of money it would look something like this:

http://www.webgraphing.com/images/tricks/mspstore558799997_32.jpg

overall: I'd take the 10 mil but i'd shoot if it were 1 mil.

[tpols]

Not really, though. there are diminishing returns as you increase the money. there is a huge difference between making 20,000 a year and 640,000 a year but there is no real difference to your life if you're making 2 billion or 64 billion a year.

there's not necessarily a linear relationship where your life will improve in a manner dirrectly proportional to the amount of money you have...

if you plotted quality of life vs amount of money it would look something like this:

http://www.webgraphing.com/images/tricks/mspstore558799997_32.jpg

overall: I'd take the 10 mil but i'd shoot if it were 1 mil.

Exactly.. only way you take the shot is if you're like Joyner and have your daddies behind you, future rents secured, already have all the clothes food and extracurriculars paid for..and you would trade an extra few luxuries for a chance to become another Donald sterling.

Otherwise.. for a normal person you'd have to be crazy to turn down the guaranteed

[FLDFSU]

:wtf:

No.. he wouldnt.. that's a few days wages to him.. vs months or even a year for making the shot. If someone offered me a guaranteed 2000 or take a shot for 200,000 you can bet your ass I'd be taking that shot.

We need to stick to multiples of 1,000. Not multiples of just 100.

Okay, using $100.00 vs. $100,000.00, the poor kid would take $100.00.

You, on the other hand, would go for $100,000 as losing $100.00 is not going to make or break you.

And :applause: I did not know you could post about something other than Lebron James...

[Joyner82reload]

Exactly.. only way you take the shot is if you're like Joyner and have your daddies behind you, future rents secured, already have all the clothes food and extracurriculars paid for..and you would trade an extra few luxuries for a chance to become another Donald sterling.

Otherwise.. for a normal person you'd have to be crazy to turn down the guaranteed

Yep, I'm a terrible person for being born into my family. I should be ashamed of myself despite the fact that I'm working my ass off to get into medical school. Jesus, this type of criticism is so played out and frankly down right unwarranted. I'm a piece of shit because my parents are helping supporting me until I finish my education. :facepalm :rolleyes:

[tpols]

Yep, I'm a terrible person for being born into my family. I should be ashamed of myself despite the fact that I'm working my ass off to get into medical school. Jesus, this type of criticism is so played out and frankly down right unwarranted. I'm a piece of shit because my parents are helping supporting me until I finish my education. :facepalm :rolleyes:

I never said you were a 'terrible person'. Just that you are operating from a different perspective than 99% of humans on this earth and thus your opinion is heavily biased and shortsighted

[Joyner82reload]

I never said you were a 'terrible person'. Just that you are operating from a different perspective than 99% of humans on this earth and thus your opinion is heavily biased and shortsighted

And yet you insult me with the daddies comment. I would hope you would help support your children someday if you have the means just as my father has.

[tpols]

And yet you insult me with the daddies comment. I would hope you would help support your children someday if you have the means just as my father has.
The fk? Would you prefer fathers? You didn't make that money.. it was pure luck. That is the fault of another.

Excuse me.. I'll refer to it as 'the persons who came before you and provided everything'.. that help?

[dreamwarrior]

If I had months to practice, for sure I'd take the shot. I shoot 3's better than I do FT's. Well actually no, more like 50% from 3 and 70% FT, but I feel more confident and less nervous taking a 3.

[bballnoob1192]

You're losing the guaranteed money by taking the shot.

What team are you buying if you make it, the Knicks?

money you don't have is not something u can lose.

[iamgine]

I'll take the 1 million.

In the 3pt contest, about 50% of the players missed their first shot. So even for great NBA Shooters, the chance of making this shot is only 50%. Granted, in the 3pt contest they have the added pressure of time but I think in this scenario they also have the added pressure of having to make it to offset that.

You are an anxious, just ok shooter in an unfamiliar noisy environment. I would think a decent shooter would make it about 10-15% of the time in this scenario. Therefore, unless I'm already making $7 million+ a year, I'd take the guaranteed money.

[ImKobe]

Take the guaranteed money, duh.

[rhowen4]

take the money and run take the money and run take the money

here i'm allowed everything all of the time

[OnFire]

I wouldn't risk 10 million for 1 billion shooting a LAYUP. I see NBA players miss layups all the time.

[OnFire]

What the heck are you taking about?

Rational means logical. Hence, according to my Contracts professor, if people are logical they would take the chance at 1 billion dollars rather than the sure 1 million.

But according to him most people, in this situation, would be very risk adverse, and therefore not behave rationally.

He would argue (and so would I) that a person like Bill Gates would be more inclined to behave rationally (in this context) because 1 million would not provide enough incentives to behave irrationally.

Whereas if you took a kid poor kid from the world's poorest country and said 1 billion for attempting the shot or 1,000...he take the 1,000 (which of course even more irrational).

Your professor is full of shit. He would take the million even with the added stipulation of male fornication.

There's no way to prove this but I bet you its the opposite of what you are theorizing. I bet you that the more richer the person is, the MORE likely it is he will take the automatic 1,000,000 vs risking for 1billion. Most rich people are thrifty and smart with their money and and risk adverse on things they can't control. That would take that free 1million and scoop it up and flip it on a condo in miami.

[GOBB]

I updated it for 1 million, since many people think 10 million is too much to pass up

You're thread is trash. Edit it one more time shithead because everyone is going to still take the money without shooting. Easy money.

[Eric Cartman]

"I'll give you a million dollars just for not shooting this basketball"

Me - "Ball is life nikka"

[InfiniteBaskets]

Chance of making an NBA 3 with all the pressure, probably around 5-10% for myself.

Even though that's technically still an expected return greater than 1 million if I take the shot, 1 million is life changing money for me.

If you were to flip this and say, guaranteed $1 or take a 3 pointer for $1,000 I'd probably just take the 3 pointer for a 1,000 knowing neither really makes a big difference.

[HurricaneKid]

Y'all are some LOUSY SHOOTERS. And awful at math too.

I would be shooting 50%+. Probably higher than that given the practice time allowed.

EV = 500M. Now certainly I would offer a discount for some certainly, but that equates to a 99.8% discount on EV. I'm confident I could find investors and sell off a piece at a MUCH better rate.

I'm not kidding when I say I probably wouldn't take 200M.

You fellas are pansies.

[Velocirap31]

I'm taking the shot.

[GOBB]

Y'all are some LOUSY SHOOTERS. And awful at math too.

I would be shooting 50%+. Probably higher than that given the practice time allowed.

EV = 500M. Now certainly I would offer a discount for some certainly, but that equates to a 99.8% discount on EV. I'm confident I could find investors and sell off a piece at a MUCH better rate.

I'm not kidding when I say I probably wouldn't take 200M.

You fellas are pansies.

Here are fun facts.

Its a fact you aren't guaranteed to hit that 3 this no money for you
Its a fact that I'm guaranteed $1mil by not taking the shot.

People play lottery, powerball, gamble, go to college for years just to get a job to...make money. And here you are faced with an easy task to do literally NOTHING and walk away with $1,000,000. But you're so cocky, confident, and stupid you rather roll the dice to hit that shot for $1bil.

[FLDFSU]

Your professor is full of shit. He would take the million even with the added stipulation of male fornication.

There's no way to prove this but I bet you its the opposite of what you are theorizing. I bet you that the more richer the person is, the MORE likely it is he will take the automatic 1,000,000 vs risking for 1billion. Most rich people are thrifty and smart with their money and and risk adverse on things they can't control. That would take that free 1million and scoop it up and flip it on a condo in miami.

Holy crap. Did you just say that Bill Gates is more likely to forego a chance at a billion in order to pocket a million?

The richer you are the less risk adverse you are? So you would forego a million in order to play for a billion? Is that what you are saying?

[FLDFSU]

Your professor is full of shit. He would take the million even with the added stipulation of male fornication.

There's no way to prove this but I bet you its the opposite of what you are theorizing. I bet you that the more richer the person is, the MORE likely it is he will take the automatic 1,000,000 vs risking for 1billion. Most rich people are thrifty and smart with their money and and risk adverse on things they can't control. That would take that free 1million and scoop it up and flip it on a condo in miami.

and I never said he would not take the million. He is risk adverse at a million of course he would take the million.

The fact is that foregoing a chance at a billion to pocket a million from a purely logic perspective is irrational. Just like pocketing a dollar for a shot at 1000 is also irrational.

[OnFire]

that only makes sense on paper.

You have to take into account an individuals utility curve and an their ability to amass money.

Correct, "mathematically correct" action only works if you can repeat that action unlimited times.

If Someone will give you 1 billion when a coin is flipped Heads and you have to pay him your life savings (say $100k for avg person plus a home and a 401k). Its correct by statistics to take this bet right? But 50% of the time you will be Michael Jordan rich, and 50% of the time you will be homeless. Is this a worthwhile risk? Maybe if you are a degenerate.

Now if someone says you can have 1billion when a coin is flipped heads and you pay 100k when its flipped tails, and you have 50million bankroll and are allowed to play as long as you want then you jump all over that shit..unless you are an idiot.

[OnFire]

and I never said he would not take the million. He is risk adverse at a million of course he would take the million.

The fact is that foregoing a chance at a billion to pocket a million from a purely logic perspective is irrational. Just like pocketing a dollar for a shot at 1000 is also irrational.

The rationality depends on the individuals circumstances. Being rational and statistically making a good wager is not the same thing. If you have a bankroll to play big tournament poker and want to buy in to the world series for 10k its rational. If you are 2 mortgage payments behind and you spend your last 10K to try and win the world series of poker you are a degenerate.

People man... Its counter-intuitive...

People who are rich enough, that the million doesn't matter in their shot for 1billion will stack that million in their briefcase. People who are poor and broke and desperate will gamble away their free million and the chance at a billion and most will get nothing. Its a principle trillion dollar casinos are built on. You see it on every one of those "want to get millionare baller rich" game shows.. people with nothing losing 200,000 going for a million. Now they broke and their kids have no college. how's that rational?

[OnFire]

Holy crap. Did you just say that Bill Gates is more likely to forego a chance at a billion in order to pocket a million?


The richer you are the less risk adverse you are? So you would forego a million in order to play for a billion? Is that what you are saying?

Since you used bill gates... the funny joke all around vegas when I lived there for a brief period was that Bill Gates played $1 blackjack. Not high roller look at me i'm gonna get rich breaking the casino blackjack... $1 blackjack..

Anyway no, I'm saying, that people that are already billionaires, are smart, and they know that 80% of the time they will get zero dollars so they will stack their 1 million paper and put it to work on something they are good at that they know that 100% of the time, they will make 5% on.

You never see broke ass people in line at the grocery store buying $20 a piece scratch off tickets and go use foodstamps/wick to buy food? smh.. you will never see a billionaire buying lotto tickets.

[Joyner82reload]

Since you used bill gates... the funny joke all around vegas when I lived there for a brief period was that Bill Gates played $1 blackjack. Not high roller look at me i'm gonna get rich breaking the casino blackjack... $1 blackjack..

Anyway no, I'm saying, that people that are already billionaires, are smart, and they know that 80% of the time they will get zero dollars so they will stack their 1 million paper and put it to work on something they are good at that they know that 100% of the time, they will make 5% on.

You never see broke ass people in line at the grocery store buying $20 a piece scratch off tickets and go use foodstamps/wick to buy food? smh.. you will never see a billionaire buying lotto tickets.

Bill Gates probably realizes that blackjack is -EV. Whereas taking the shot if you have >1% chance to make it is +EV. Also Gates should be excluded, there is literally no amount of money he could possibly gamble in blackjack that would hurt him. The Casino simply couldn't afford to gamble with him at a limit that would affect him, it would effectively be a coinflip as to whether or not they would go out of business.

And there aren't $1 blackjack tables in many Casino's. You're probably talking about the $5 minimum tables, which I would believe because $5 to Gates is the same as $50k to him at the end of the day.

[HurricaneKid]

Here are fun facts.

Its a fact you aren't guaranteed to hit that 3 this no money for you
Its a fact that I'm guaranteed $1mil by not taking the shot.

People play lottery, powerball, gamble, go to college for years just to get a job to...make money. And here you are faced with an easy task to do literally NOTHING and walk away with $1,000,000. But you're so cocky, confident, and stupid you rather roll the dice to hit that shot for $1bil.

I'm in awe of the lack of financial understanding in this thread. I mean if you guys are the usual middle aged woman they bring out at halftime that can't get the ball to the rim, take your money. But if this is a basketball community and you guys are ballplayers this is just cowardice.

Even if you are a 15% shooter, the value of that shot is $150M. You can offer wall street types a piece of your action at 10% and end up with 100M guaranteed before you take the shot. This is why wealthy people have more money. Because they can afford to take some risk to chase after EV. EV of casino/lotto is <<<<<1. So people with heads on their shoulders DON'T do those.

Las Vegas built multiple billion dollar businesses based on a 1-5% house advantage. Here you are giving 99%+ away.

[OnFire]

I'm in awe of the lack of financial understanding in this thread. I mean if you guys are the usual middle aged woman they bring out at halftime that can't get the ball to the rim, take your money. But if this is a basketball community and you guys are ballplayers this is just cowardice.

Even if you are a 15% shooter, the value of that shot is $150M. You can offer wall street types a piece of your action at 10% and end up with 100M guaranteed before you take the shot. This is why wealthy people have more money. Because they can afford to take some risk to chase after EV. EV of casino/lotto is <<<<<1. So people with heads on their shoulders DON'T do those.

Las Vegas built multiple billion dollar businesses based on a 1-5% house advantage. Here you are giving 99%+ away.

how does EV matter on 1 shot. Risk of Ruin is well over 50% for most people. Sucker bet.

[GoSpursGo1984]

Even NB players can not make that shot consistinly so why take the shot you take the easy money something is better then nothing.