Why numbers suggest the Spurs may be in trouble

[Mrofir]

Even though the Spurs have earned the reputation as being a team that comes together in the playoffs, their regular season success has been a decent predictor of postseason success.

When their winning % dips below .666, The Spurs in the Popovich era are 1-3 in playoff series.



On the other hand, when they have a .700 record or better, their average playoff result is a 3.63, under the following definition:

5 = finals win
4 = finals loss
3 = WCF loss
2 = 2nd round loss
1 = first round loss

That's pretty impressive. 5 titles in 11 such seasons. I'd be curious to see how that stacks up to a generic .700 team.

Their current win % is .638

I'm not sure it would be smart to bet on them as a dark horse. Expect crazy things to happen in this year's playoffs. We are going to see outcomes we've never seen before.

[ClipperRevival]

What you're pretty much saying is you are what your record saids you are. Last year, they had the best record in the WC. This year, they are what, 6th? Sure they had injuries but I thought they had some last year too.The key to them is Parker. If he plays like he did last year, they have a shot. If not, they don't.

[navy]

The Spurs were definitely coasting, I wouldnt worry about their record or seeding. However their bench seems to have regressed. And it was really the bench offense that took them to another level. Diaw and Mills especially.

[navy]

What you're pretty much saying is you are what your record saids you are. Last year, they had the best record in the WC. This year, they are what, 6th? Sure they had injuries but I thought they had some last year too.The key to them is Parker. If he plays like he did last year, they have a shot. If not, they don't.
Parker wasnt any good last year. He was a monster in 2012 and 2013 though

[ClipperRevival]

Parker wasnt any good last year. He was a monster in 2012 and 2013 though

True. But even last year, he looked like a prime Parker in stretches and that's what SAS needs. They can get by with Leonard not scoring a lot cause he'll give you other things. But they need Parker to break down the D and get to the rack consistently.

[navy]

True. But even last year, he looked like a prime Parker in stretches and that's what SAS needs. They can get by with Leonard not scoring a lot cause he'll give you other things. But they need Parker to break down the D and get to the rack consistently.
Nah, they need to keep the ball moving and knock down three pointers. Im sure their will be a series where Tony Parker's ability to create his own shot will be necessary, but it's not consistently needed. It's why Diaw is so important. That stretch 4 lineup is almost unstoppable on offense.

[AussieG]

The current Spurs era can only last so long. But it's hard to write them off.

For me, I always regard past success as more credible than potential future success. So for example I rate Thunder and Spurs at the top. Grizzlies and Warriors second. And the rest third (with Mavs over the other teams) and it's why I don't rate a team like the Kings or Cousins. They could do well but until they actually do something, it's all hopes and dreams. In the NBA, once you've proven you can do something once, it's easier to do it again.

Form guide says it should be Warriors vs Grizzlies but I doubt it'll be that predictable.

And yeah, the power shifts in the West have been changing for years because players eventually age and everything changes. The Spurs are the only team left from the original core of strong West teams. Maybe they have one more year in them, maybe not.

[ClipperRevival]

Nah, they need to keep the ball moving and knock down three pointers. Im sure their will be a series where Tony Parker's ability to create his own shot will be necessary, but it's not consistently needed. It's why Diaw is so important. That stretch 4 lineup is almost unstoppable on offense.

Sure, team ball has always been their fortay and last year's display in the finals was probably the greatest display of team ball ever. And you could've made a serious case that Diaw was the finals mvp. He probably made the right basketball play 95 out of 100 times in that series.

But still, Parker was the engine that made them go for many years and when he is consistently getting to the rack, that makes the Spurs more potent. Actually, the biggest reason why the Spurs are 6th and not higher is because Parker has really slowed down this year and not getting to the rack like he used to be able to do.

[rmt]

Sure, team ball has always been their fortay and last year's display in the finals was probably the greatest display of team ball ever. And you could've made a serious case that Diaw was the finals mvp. He probably made the right basketball play 95 out of 100 times in that series.

But still, Parker was the engine that made them go for many years and when he is consistently getting to the rack, that makes the Spurs more potent. Actually, the biggest reason why the Spurs are 6th and not higher is because Parker has really slowed down this year and not getting to the rack like he used to be able to do.

Of course, if Parker is playing well, it makes things easier for the Spurs but it's not necessary for them to win it all. If Spurs play team ball like games 3-5 of the Finals, they don't need him playing well (they would have done better without his 0-10 start in game 5 and they won vs OKC without him in the 2nd half) to win it all but that'll take a lot of players playing well.

And no, the biggest reason why the Spurs are 6th and not higher is because Leonard was missing for so many games.

[Spurs m8]

They weren't even the proper Spurs for most of the season, they've only started playing properly for the last 2 weeks tbh

Injuries as well as coasting is why they are where they are in the standings.

Games the past 2 weeks are legit the first time i've gotten a form of excitement this season due to finally looking how we should.
We really looked horrible most of the season up until then, even in wins, we just weren't there.

[EwingMan]

fortay


http://i.imgur.com/cZCrsOX.gif

[ClipperRevival]

Of course, if Parker is playing well, it makes things easier for the Spurs but it's not necessary for them to win it all. If Spurs play team ball like games 3-5 of the Finals, they don't need him playing well (they would have done better without his 0-10 start in game 5 and they won vs OKC without him in the 2nd half) to win it all but that'll take a lot of players playing well.

And no, the biggest reason why the Spurs are 6th and not higher is because Leonard was missing for so many games.

Again, what you are talking about in the Spurs of last year's finals from games 3-5 is an aberration. It was team ball played at the highest level and we might not see that again. Thinking that this will occur again is wishful thinking if you ask me. But Parker and his ability to attack the basket has always been a key weapon for SAS. When he's able to attack like that, it takes that team to a different level.

For most of this season, Parker has not looked right. Not being able to penetrate like he has in the past cause let's face it, he's one of the best ever at finishing at the basket.

[ClipperRevival]

http://i.imgur.com/cZCrsOX.gif

The key is to keep learning right? :cheers:

[John Tesh]

The Spurs were definitely coasting, I wouldnt worry about their record or seeding. However their bench seems to have regressed. And it was really the bench offense that took them to another level. Diaw and Mills especially.

Also, injuries have been higher this year.