Playoff Series Odds

[Thorpesaurous]

I've posted these the last few years. I usually make some money on these things. But I almost never take any favorites. The risk is usually just too big. Here's the list:

Atl (-1300) Brook (+800)
Cleve (-4700) Boston (+2200)
Chi (-700) Mil (+525)
Tor (-180) Wash (+160)

GS (-4700) NO (+2200)
Hou (-270) Dal (+230)
Clips (+155) SA (-170)
Port (+155) Mem (-175)


For the uninitiated, those numbers mean that if you bet 100 bucks on an underdog and they win, you win that + number, but if they lose you lose 100. If you bet 100 bucks on a favorite, you win the 100 if they win, but if they lose you lose the - number.

Nothing jumps out at me like they usually do. Last year I went big on Washington of The Bulls in round one and it buoyed the rest of my playoffs.

Only the Clips and Portland have home court and are underdogs. If Gasol's ankle is really bad I'd consider Portland. I'd have a hard time betting against San Antonio. I'm afraid SA will put Kawhi on CP when it matters and the Clip offense will go stagnant. They just don't have a wing threat that matters enough to bother with using Kawhi anywhere else.

The Boston and NO numbers are so big I'd consider putting 50 bucks on both and just hope something weird or horrible happens. Steph Curry throws his back out and Anthony Davis gets hot and scores 50 a game for a week. Boston seems like an even longer shot to me. I've never taken a favorite that heavy. The chance to win 100 bucks just isn't worth it enough to me to risk that much. But Cleveland seems like the closest thing to a mortal lock I can remember seeing. However I'm a Celtic fan.

Dallas is probably the most intriguing to me. Unfortunately they don't have anyone to even try to stop Harden. Not even like one of those Bench guys to come in and take a stab like everyone in the league has. Rondo is probably they're best bet. I would consider Washington again. And Chicago is probably my favorite favorite. The road games in Milwaukee will get a big Chicago crowd. And I'm a huge fan of the design of this Milwaukee team, the length and the switching and the multi-positional, but they've got a lot of stay off shooters and if anyone will take advantage of that it's this Bulls team. And over a series I'm afraid the Bull front line will wear them down.

[ISHGoat]

Memphis has HCA. Lines are tight this year.

Also, thread already made:

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=373568

[BigTicket]

If I was to bet on any team with these lines, it would probably be the Grizzlies. They have home court, they swept the season series, and the Blazers have a couple of key guys out with injuries.

[Real Men Wear Green]

Cleve (-4700) Boston (+2200)
So you're saying there's a chance.

[raiderfan19]

I would imagine aminu will get some run on harden when rondo is out

[Thorpesaurous]

I would imagine aminu will get some run on harden when rondo is out


That was my best guess too. But he's still a little closer to PF who can guard SFs than moving all the way down to SGs.

But there's not a lot of other options. JJ Barea can't do it.

It would sure be nice to have Jae Crowder back at this point.

[Hittin_Shots]

That was my best guess too. But he's still a little closer to PF who can guard SFs than moving all the way down to SGs.

But there's not a lot of other options. JJ Barea can't do it.

It would sure be nice to have Jae Crowder back at this point.

the Crowd gonna be busy shutting LeBron down.

[Velocirap31]

I wish I knew the future. If the Celts/Pels won their series, massive payouts.

[gigantes]

i would have bet on the bucks before the trade deadline, but they're still recovering from swapping all those pieces.


re: my own team, the nets... here's something to consider--
the nets got things together and played .700 ball the final month (13-6) while the hawks only played .500 (8-8). doubtful that will be enough for the upset, but it should at least make for an interesting series.


so as long as i'm betting virtual money, i'll go with $50 on the bucks and $50 on the nets. if i make a profit i'll play in to the 2nd round. how's that, thorp?

[poido123]

Multi up Bulls into Cavs into Grizz



Do a second multi with those same teams plus Wiz



Work out what you're going to do with the winnings. Thank me later :D

[Thorpesaurous]

I wound up going 200 Wiz, 100 Mavs. Then I waited all weekend for my favorite individual game, Grizz -4.5 over The Blazers at home, and put 500 on that.

so now I'm up 200 bucks worst case scenario, with both series having a chance to play out. And I can also hedge those series later if they go deep into it by betting against my series bet.

[poido123]

I wound up going 200 Wiz, 100 Mavs. Then I waited all weekend for my favorite individual game, Grizz -4.5 over The Blazers at home, and put 500 on that.

so now I'm up 200 bucks worst case scenario, with both series having a chance to play out. And I can also hedge those series later if they go deep into it by betting against my series bet.


Good work. :cheers:


Plenty of easy money to be made in the playoffs.


I'm tempted to back the Spurs in game 2 against the clippers. you can bet the spurs will throw everything at that game,,

[Thorpesaurous]

Good work. :cheers:


Plenty of easy money to be made in the playoffs.


I'm tempted to back the Spurs in game 2 against the clippers. you can bet the spurs will throw everything at that game,,

Thanks.

I really love series betting. I love that opportunity to hedge.

I was right on the fence with the Clips. I do think the matchup is a little tough for them. But I also think Parker is just a shell of himself, and the gap at that matchup is just a nightmare. Putting Kwahi on him will help, or Green, which they always do. But the Spurs really rely on Parker to keep their system going, and whatever's been bothering him all season, or if it's just age, combined with what Paul can do to him defensively, may be enough to swing the series.

[ArbitraryWater]

Okay, what should I bet on?

I have two going but they include other football (soccer) games, anyway, basketball wise what must happen is: Grizzlies/Clippers/Mavericks win or Grizzlies/Spurs/Rockets...

[poido123]

Thanks.

I really love series betting. I love that opportunity to hedge.

I was right on the fence with the Clips. I do think the matchup is a little tough for them. But I also think Parker is just a shell of himself, and the gap at that matchup is just a nightmare. Putting Kwahi on him will help, or Green, which they always do. But the Spurs really rely on Parker to keep their system going, and whatever's been bothering him all season, or if it's just age, combined with what Paul can do to him defensively, may be enough to swing the series.



Yeah, an excellent take on Parker.


I agree with this, Parker is like the cog in the wheel that makes that machine roll.


Thinking about what you said, I might just sit back and avoid the bet on this series altogether. Just too many uncertainties to deal with.


TBH, I haven't really spotted anything to bet on further to my round 1 winner bets hedged. I prefer to bet on the outcome of a series, rather than individual games, but that's just me. 1 game can go so many different ways.


If you spot one, please let me know your insight :cheers:

[poido123]

Okay, what should I bet on?

I have two going but they include other football (soccer) games, anyway, basketball wise what must happen is: Grizzlies/Clippers/Mavericks win or Grizzlies/Spurs/Rockets...



I'd say Grizz/Clips/Rockets.


Not sure what that pays, but it would be pretty short atm.

[ArbitraryWater]

I'd say Grizz/Clips/Rockets.


Not sure what that pays, but it would be pretty short atm.

exactly.. hey if Mavs win their series, Grizz/Clips/Mavs has a good chance of happening, if all those other football bets go through (2 already did, 5 more), I'll be 1000€ richer, on a 5€ bet.

[WallIn]

Those are the odds before the series began right?

[Thorpesaurous]

Those are the odds before the series began right?

Yeah, those are pre series odds.

Vegas, and the websites, will make adjusted odds to step in now if you really wanted.

But I surprisingly have a street book who takes this type of action, which is pretty rare.

[ArbitraryWater]

**** man, I had a bit of a hunch that the Nets and Bucks could actually surprise the world and win their series, when the Nets were down 1-2 and Bucks down 1-3 (while losing a 2OT game 3, they could well be uo 3-2 now), now since the Nets have TIED their series and Bucks won on the road, ready to tie it 3-3 at home, I'm pissed I didn't bet on it.... it's not worth the risk anymore, the odds just aren't good anymore, either. It would still be a surprise, I mean, Bucks first team to ever win from down 3-0? Hell yea thats a surprise, but now its 3-2, at worst you should have made that bet down 3-1.

[Wiltside]

So you're saying there's a chance.

:lol