ESPN Insider Request [Archive] - Message Board Basketball Forum

JimmyMcAdocious

04-18-2015, 12:27 AM

As teams complete their seasons, ESPN Insider's NBA team will take a look at the offseason picture and priorities for all 30 teams. Below, Kevin Pelton offers a snapshot of the Los Angeles Lakers (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/Lal).

2014-15 record: 21-61
Pythagorean record: 24-58
Offensive Rating: 100.8 (23rd)
Defensive Rating: 108.0 (29th)

Under Contract For 2015-16
PLAYER SALARY RPM WARP
Kobe Bryant $25,000,000 -2.3 2.4
Nick Young $5,219,169 -1.8 1.0
Julius Randle $3,132,240 -1.7 -0.1
Ryan Kelly $1,724,250 -2.1 -0.9

Possible Free Agents
PLAYER TYPE RPM WARP
Ed Davis Player option -0.1 7.5
Jeremy Lin Unrestricted 1.4 3.2
Jordan Clarkson Non-guaranteed -2.7 2.8
Jordan Hill Team option -4.0 1.6
Tarik Black Non-guaranteed -1.6 1.1
Ronnie Price Unrestricted 0.3 0.6
Carlos Boozer Unrestricted -3.9 0.4
Vander Blue Restricted - -0.1
Wesley Johnson Unrestricted -1.3 -0.1
Wayne Ellington Unrestricted -0.5 -0.3
Jabari Brown Non-guaranteed -5.0 -0.4
Robert Sacre Non-guaranteed -0.7 -1.0

Draft picks
Own first-round pick top-5 protected (4th entering lottery)
Houston first-round pick (27th or 28th, pending coin flip)

Projected cap space
Maximum: $25.5 million
Minimum: $0
Likely: $24.1 million

What's returning
Legendary shooting guard Kobe Bryant figures to return at or near the start of the 2015-16 regular season from shoulder surgery, entering the final year of a two-year contract extension and what might be the final season of his Hall of Fame career. What Bryant will be able to contribute at age 37 is tough to predict. He made a career-low 40.1 percent of his 2-point attempts during his abbreviated 2014-15 campaign, but was effective when he shifted into a playmaking role to take advantage of the defensive attention he drew.

2014 lottery pick Julius Randle was lost for his rookie season on opening night with a fractured tibia, halting his development and preventing the Lakers from getting a good idea of what they have in the 20-year-old power forward. On the bright side, second-round pick Jordan Clarkson made a strong bid for All-Rookie honors, averaging 15.8 points, 5.0 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game with a reasonable .533 true shooting percentage as a starter. And waiver claim Tarik Black held his own as a starter, suggesting he's a future rotation piece.

The good news with Nick Young is that his season probably couldn't have gone much worse. After signing a four-year, $21 million-plus contract to stay with the Lakers, Young made a dismal 36.3 percent of his 2-point attempts (down from 46.8 percent the year before) and missed 40 games due to injuries. Forward Ryan Kelly also struggled inside the arc, making just 33.7 percent of his 2-point tries.

Free Agents
Once again, the Lakers will see two-thirds of their roster hit free agency. They have a choice on starting center Jordan Hill, who averaged 12.0 points and 7.9 rebounds but failed to provide much rim protection. The Lakers must decide by June 30 whether to pick up a $9.9 million team option on Hill, which will determine whether they have max-level cap space.

Ed Davis, an incredible bargain at the veteran's minimum while shooting 60 percent from the field, will surely opt out of his contract and get a raise. Wayne Ellington might also have earned a more lucrative deal after shooting 37.0 percent from 3-point range and flashing some versatility. Point guard Jeremy Lin will probably be looking for a better fit, though he ended up improving on his performance in two seasons with the Houston Rockets.

Biggest need: A reason for free agents to believe they can win with the Lakers
The Lakers will likely have enough cap space to offer the maximum salary this summer before coming into an enormous amount of room in the summer of 2016 when Bryant's $25 million deal comes off the books. At this point, however, they don't have much to offer free agents besides the Lakers' legacy and the chance to live in L.A. That might be enough, particularly for players from Southern California, but recent results in free agency suggest max players also want to go somewhere they can win. To offer that, the Lakers need to land a future star with this year's first-round pick.

Biggest question: Will the Lakers keep their pick?
Of course, the only way the Lakers can draft a future star is to keep their pick in the first place. If it lands outside the top five selections in next month's draft lottery -- something that happens 17.2 percent of the time for a team that enters in fourth place, which is where the Lakers are -- the pick goes to the Philadelphia 76ers. So the Lakers might have more riding on this year's lottery results than anyone else.

Ideal offseason
Not only do the Lakers keep the pick, but it ends up No. 1 overall (there's an 11.9 percent chance of that). They select Karl-Anthony Towns, who proves an ideal frontcourt partner for Kevin Love, who decides he's had enough of playing in Cleveland and returns to the city where he starred at UCLA. With Bryant deferring on offense and sharing playmaking duties with Clarkson, the Lakers are competitive all season and set themselves up for a run at Kevin Durant in the summer of 2016.