Just posted by FiveThiryEight.

[Springsteen]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEwFS6xUEAALJqD.png

Thoughts? :confusedshrug:

[JerrySeinfeld]

does this chart show turnovers in clutch moments?

cause bron seemed to have a lot of those last night, when the game looked basically like a lock for the cavs.

[Velocirap31]

:roll: Illogical kobetard defense on the way...

[Solefade]

:roll: Illogical kobetard defense on the way...


in 5...4...3...2..1....

[3ball]

Does that chart take into account that Lebron averages 24 PPG in the Finals compared to MJ's 34 PPG?

Clutch isn't only reflected by the half-dozen go-ahead shots hit by a player in their career..

Clutch is reflected by sustained dominance in the 2nd half, 4th quarter, playoffs and Finals.. We have stats for all these clutch indicators, and MJ is #1 in all of them, by far.

[Springsteen]

does this chart show turnovers in clutch moments?

cause bron seemed to have a lot of those last night, when the game looked basically like a lock for the cavs.

Does it really matter if he turned it over as long as he made it the game winning shot to prevent his team from going down 3-1?

Would you feel the same way if your boy Russ, who's known for high volume and turning it over quite a bit, played the exact same game Lebron did tonight, game winner and all?

[DMAVS41]

Why 5 seconds though...

At least post the 10 seconds and 24 seconds data. It's all a small sample to begin with, but 5 seconds is absurdly small when only looked at alone.

[aj1987]

Does that chart take into account that Lebron averages 24 PPG in the Finals compared to MJ's 34 PPG?

Clutch isn't only reflected by the half-dozen go-ahead shots hit by a player in their career..

Clutch is reflected by sustained dominance in the 2nd half, 4th quarter, playoffs and Finals.. We have stats for all these clutch indicators, and MJ is #1 in all of them, by far.
How many Finals did MJ play in since 2001?

[JerrySeinfeld]

lebron is a stats god

multiple turn overs to give the bulls a chance to win down the stretch, hits the shot...

clutch stats only go up... fukken baller

[aj1987]

lebron is a stats god

multiple turn overs to give the bulls a chance to win down the stretch, hits the shot...

clutch stats only go up... fukken baller
Stop melting down Russwest. The Thunder might make the PO's next season. :oldlol:

[Springsteen]

Does that chart take into account that Lebron averages 24 PPG in the Finals compared to MJ's 34 PPG?

Clutch isn't only reflected by the half-dozen go-ahead shots hit by a player in their career..

Clutch is reflected by sustained dominance in the 2nd half, 4th quarter, playoffs and Finals.. We have stats for all these clutch indicators, and MJ is #1 in all of them, by far.

Do you think people actually dispute Lebron is better than Jordan? Even posters like Dubeta would probably admit Jordan > Lebron if they were seriously grilled.

It's like bringing up Joe Montana's stats every time someone talks about Tom Brady.

[Solefade]

Why 5 seconds though...

At least post the 10 seconds and 24 seconds data. It's all a small sample to begin with, but 5 seconds is absurdly small when only looked at alone.


think it's based off of buzzer beaters

[Trollsmasher]

Kirby:roll:

[Bernkastel]

Five second criteria makes this list worthless.

[ISHGoat]

Dam Kobe stans having a rough day/week/month/year/decade (since '10)

[HylianNightmare]

Turk and shard

[oarabbus]

Lookin REAL BAD for Kobestans... I mean suicide watch status.

Not too pretty for Duncan either. Dirk tho :pimp:

[Yoshi]

does this chart show turnovers in clutch moments?


Overlooked aspect of "clutch."

[Solefade]

bad shots should be considered turnovers too

[Yao Ming's Foot]

2000 ring
2001 ring
2002 ring

2003 eliminated by Spurs ( 1 close loss )

Game 4

Kobe beasted and Horry took the final shot

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=230513024


2004

eliminated by Pistons (0 close losses)

2005 no playoffs
2006 eliminated by Suns

1 close loss

Kobe beasted but missed a chance to win the game when given 7 secs to make a shot at the end of the 4th.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200605040LAL.html

2007 eliminated by Suns (0 close losses)
2008 eliminated by Celtics (0 close losses)
2009 ring
2010 ring

This is literally one game in which Kobe did not make the clutch shot and it had any relevance to anything. It was also the game in which he had 50 pts on 57% shooting. By my count any other missed opportunity still resulted in the Lakers later winning the series and/or a ring.

:confusedshrug:

[ISHGoat]

2000 ring
2001 ring
2002 ring

2003 eliminated by Spurs ( 1 close loss )

Game 4

Kobe beasted and Horry took the final shot

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=230513024


2004

eliminated by Pistons (0 close losses)

2005 no playoffs
2006 eliminated by Suns

1 close loss

Kobe beasted but missed a chance to win the game when given 7 secs to make a shot at the end of the 4th.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200605040LAL.html

2007 eliminated by Suns (0 close losses)
2008 eliminated by Celtics (0 close losses)
2009 ring
2010 ring

This is literally one game in which Kobe did not make the clutch shot and it had any relevance to anything. It was also the game in which he had 50 pts on 57% shooting. By my count any other missed opportunity still resulted in the Lakers later winning the series and/or a ring.

:confusedshrug:

:roll:

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cant refute the stone cold stats so he reverts to posting 5 RANGZZ DOE

[DMAVS41]

Players w/ "10 or more" gm-tying/go-ahead FGA in last 24 sec of Q4/OT since '97 via @nbastats

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEvCSyjWgAExYCF.png:large

This is much better than only looking at 5 seconds. Not that the shots within 5 seconds don't matter, but at least this gives more information.

[Yao Ming's Foot]

:roll:

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:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

cant refute the stone cold stats so he reverts to posting 5 RANGZZ DOE

It's called context. :confusedshrug:

[ISHGoat]

Players w/ 10 PS gm-tying/go-ahead FGA in last 24 sec of Q4/OT since '97

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEvCSyjWgAExYCF.png:large


:roll: :roll: :roll:

25% just like his fg%

[ISHGoat]

It's called context. :confusedshrug:
the context is go ahead bucket in the last 5 seconds of a playoff game

he shoots 10% in that context

:roll:

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[DMAVS41]

It's called context. :confusedshrug:

Kobe, overall, is one of the best clutch players in the playoffs of this era. Anyone saying Kobe isn't a good clutch player in the playoffs overall is a moron or just trying to rile someone up.

However, he's been subpar to say the least on game winning type shots in the playoffs given his volume.

No other way around it.

The funniest part of the list I posted is Billups though. I've talked about this before...just how much of a fraud Mr. Big Shot actually was and how perception is always so far off of reality.

Without real data...nobody would believe just how bad Billups, Kobe, and Pierce have been in these situations in their careers in the playoffs. Hence why actually having a record of what really happened in reality is always huge.

[T_L_P]

Can't disagree with LeBron being the best clutch star of his generation, but using expounded possession stats for one-possession situations is absolutely moronic.

Just terrible. :oldlol:

[Yao Ming's Foot]

the context is go ahead bucket in the last 5 seconds of a playoff game

he shoots 10% in that context

:roll:

:roll:

:roll:

:roll:

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:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

And I fleshed out the relevance and impact of that statistic on his team's actual success in the playoffs.

You are playing tic tac toe.

I'm playing chess.

:confusedshrug:

[Yao Ming's Foot]

Kobe, overall, is one of the best clutch players in the playoffs of this era. Anyone saying Kobe isn't a good clutch player in the playoffs overall is a moron or just trying to rile someone up.

However, he's been subpar to say the least on game winning type shots in the playoffs given his volume.

No other way around it.

What's par on game winning type shots?

[Ariza4three]

Players w/ "10 or more" gm-tying/go-ahead FGA in last 24 sec of Q4/OT since '97 via @nbastats

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEvCSyjWgAExYCF.png:large

This is much better than only looking at 5 seconds. Not that the shots within 5 seconds don't matter, but at least this gives more information.

:applause:

[sundizz]

:applause:

That chart is also ridiculous though. The shot itself is a pretty raw statistic to look at.

Clutch should be defined as a multitude of things (e.g., what happens overall in the last 3 minutes of a game that is closer than 5).

Anyone with any amount of sense can see that Kobe overall does winning type stuff.

This doesn't translate to the sheet, but there is some intangible value in knowing you have a bail out player that can always create a shot on your team. It allows the offense to still work when usually it becomes stagnant at time of game.

Additionally, rebounds are worth 10x as much at that point of a game (possession of the ball). Kobe has gotten a lot of clutch bounds in traffic.

Etc.

[DMAVS41]

What's par on game winning type shots?

For Kobe? At least 33% would be the measure for me.

Not making at least a third of some of the biggest shots of your career in the playoffs is subpar to me for a player of Kobe's caliber.

If you are asking what par is in terms of league average...I think it's roughly 27% in the last 24 seconds to tie or take the lead, but I can't remember...might be lower.

[Yao Ming's Foot]

For Kobe? At least 33% would be the measure for me.

Not making at least a third of some of the biggest shots of your career in the playoffs is subpar to me for a player of Kobe's caliber.

If you are asking what par is in terms of league average...I think it's roughly 27% in the last 24 seconds to tie or take the lead, but I can't remember...might be lower.

Seems to me like you would like to know what league average was for other legends and the league in general to make such a statement but I guess some people feel more comfortable just pulling numbers out of thin air.

[Droid101]

I see he's in great company with Metta World Peace and Hedo Turkoglu. Well done.

[ArbitraryWater]

the difference in clutchness between Bron and Kobe is actually astronomical.. not even worth discussion.

[DMAVS41]

Seems to me like you would like to know what league average was for other legends and the league in general to make such a statement but I guess some people feel more comfortable just pulling numbers out of thin air.

What?

You asked my opinion. The numbers are there to be looked at. I just don't know all of them off the top of my head.

But I know them enough to say what I did.

Do you refute that? I mean...at some point shooting 25% on those shots has to be mentioned.

Not like I'm saying he sucks at them or something...just that he is subpar for a player of his caliber.

I mean...33% puts him a distant 5th on the list that I posted...and that is hardly including all players. We know factually MJ was better in these situations as well.

Again, at some point you just have to admit Kobe hasn't performed well in these situations in the playoffs for his career. When his name is always at the bottom of these lists...it's time to just take the L. Literally every way this game winning shit has been sliced has show Kobe to be absolutely nothing of note at all in the playoffs. I mean...I don't even think the 538 is worth much, but why do you think Kobe grades out as the worst in that analysis? Is it because he's above average?

If "subpar" for a player of his caliber can't be agreed upon here...just might as well never even try to come to some reasonable agreement. Basically you are saying that either the standards for Kobe should be extremely low here....or that it just doesn't matter at all

At least go with "it doesn't matter at all"...that can be made into a sound argument

[ChrisConley]

That one game winner made by MWP was off of a Kobe airball that landed right in his hands for a layup at the buzzer if I remember correctly. Against the Thunder? So lucky. If Kobe hits the rim, they lose that game.

[Yao Ming's Foot]

What?

You asked my opinion. The numbers are there to be looked at. I just don't know all of them off the top of my head.

But I know them enough to say what I did.

Do you refute that? I mean...at some point shooting 25% on those shots has to be mentioned.

Not like I'm saying he sucks at them or something...just that he is subpar for a player of his caliber.

I mean...33% puts him a distant 5th on the list that I posted...and that is hardly including all players. We know factually MJ was better in these situations as well.

Again, at some point you just have to admit Kobe hasn't performed well in these situations in the playoffs for his career. When his name is always at the bottom of these lists...it's time to just take the L. Literally every way this game winning shit has been sliced has show Kobe to be absolutely nothing of note at all in the playoffs. I mean...I don't even think the 538 is worth much, but why do you think Kobe grades out as the worst in that analysis? Is it because he's above average?

If "subpar" for a player of his caliber can't be agreed upon here...just might as well never even try to come to some reasonable agreement. Basically you are saying that either the standards for Kobe should be extremely low here....or that it just doesn't matter at all

At least go with "it doesn't matter at all"...that can be made into a sound argument

I'm saying if you deem something subpar you should know what par is. :confusedshrug:

It's not an analysis. It's such a small sample size that no meaningful statistical conclusions can be drawn from it.

[JohnFreeman]

LeBron :applause: Bird aint got shit on him

[Yao Ming's Foot]

That one game winner made by MWP was off of a Kobe airball that landed right in his hands for a layup at the buzzer if I remember correctly. Against the Thunder? So lucky. If Kobe hits the rim, they lose that game.

It was a tie game and against the Suns. Worst case scenario they were looking at OT at home. :confusedshrug:

[Bobcats2013]

The Fisher 0.4 moment would of never happened if Kobe hadn't of made the clutch shot with 25 seconds left in the game.

Horry's legendary shot in game 4 against the Kings would of never happened if Kobe hadn't of made that runner while being double teamed with less than a minute left.

nikkas in this thread actually believe cause Kobe don't make buzzer beaters that Lebron is more clutch :facepalm

[plowking]

The Fisher 0.4 moment would of never happened if Kobe hadn't of made the clutch shot with 25 seconds left in the game.

Horry's legendary shot in game 4 against the Kings would of never happened if Kobe hadn't of made that runner while being double teamed with less than a minute left.

nikkas in this thread actually believe cause Kobe don't make buzzer beaters that Lebron is more clutch :facepalm

Kind of like how Allen's 3 point shot against the Spurs in the final doesn't count unless Bron hits the 3 before it? I'm guessing you were in the crowd of "Bron got bailed out!", so you'll conveniently forget that one.

[Bobcats2013]

Kind of like how Allen's 3 point shot against the Spurs in the final doesn't count unless Bron hits the 3 before it? I'm guessing you were in the crowd of "Bron got bailed out!", so you'll conveniently forget that one.

Brahhhh... Bron went like 1-4 on three in those last few seconds. On open looks too.

[TheMarkMadsen]

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e246/J_K/KobeoverLebrongamewinner_zpsd97ee867.gif (http://s40.photobucket.com/user/J_K/media/KobeoverLebrongamewinner_zpsd97ee867.gif.html)

[Sarcastic]

Rashard Lewis, Metta World Peace, and Hedo Turkeyglue >>>>> Duncan, Parker, Gino



:bowdown:

[34-24 Footwork]

Bran stans going FULL RETARD over the weekend. Lol. All they have is analytics and weird numbers because he loses so much when it counts.

The irony of Ray Allen being bottom 10 while Lebron being number one tells me that OP is probably bald and loses a LOT :lol :lol

[chazzy]

You guys need to get a grip and realize you're debating over anywhere between 2-10 FIELD GOALS ATTEMPTED :oldlol: Even when you make it 24 seconds, it's still no more than 20 shots for most players.. what does that tell you exactly? There's so much noise and variance

[Young X]

Might find ya man dead in the ocean
He'll be alright tho
You know dead rappers get better promotion

[MVBallin2K]

It's easy to point this out but it's also easy to point out that Lebron for a large chunk of his career was incredibly passive in the big moments and would probably have a far worse % if he were man enough to take every GW he had an opportunity for...

So of course he beats Kobe out in this type of argument, Kobe was taking that shot good, bad or ugly. Same with a lot of those guys lower on the list whereas Lebron would pass a lot more on those moments than they would.

[DMAVS41]

It was a tie game and against the Suns. Worst case scenario they were looking at OT at home. :confusedshrug:

I'm not drawing any large conclusions.

Just that Kobe has done nothing of note in the playoffs in game winning situations.

That's it... You butt hurt fans just can't admit that.

It's really that simple.

[DMAVS41]

You guys need to get a grip and realize you're debating over anywhere between 2-10 FIELD GOALS ATTEMPTED :oldlol: Even when you make it 24 seconds, it's still no more than 20 shots for most players.. what does that tell you exactly? There's so much noise and variance

I agree with this in a broad sense, but playoff games and series and titles can often be extremely fragile.

Have to give credit to players that do things.

Lebron making that shot last game could be the difference between a 2nd round loss and a finals trip.

Kobe missing that shot against the Mavs in game 1 in 11 could have altered the champion that year.

So while I agree about the noise and variance... We have to actually give guys credit/blame in those situations.

You just aren't going to be able to draw accurate conclusions about how clutch a guy is on this alone. It's a piece of the puzzle... A small one at that...it's clearly not the puzzle.

[chazzy]

I agree with this in a broad sense, but playoff games and series and titles can often be extremely fragile.

Have to give credit to players that do things.

Lebron making that shot last game could be the difference between a 2nd round loss and a finals trip.

Kobe missing that shot against the Mavs in game 1 in 11 could have altered the champion that year.

So while I agree about the noise and variance... We have to actually give guys credit/blame in those situations.

You just aren't going to be able to draw accurate conclusions about how clutch a guy is on this alone. It's a piece of the puzzle... A small one at that...it's clearly not the puzzle.
Yeah I agree, they definitely deserve credit. It's when people use it to draw conclusions and make predictions about a player is when it gets a little ridiculous.

[DMAVS41]

Yeah I agree, they definitely deserve credit. It's when people use it to draw conclusions and make predictions about a player is when it gets a little ridiculous.

Bingo.

[ISHGoat]

its not this alone that makes kobe a chucking bricklayer and lebron a clutch god at the end of games.

We already knew that from the eye test

[Nash]

how did kobestans sell us the clutch myth for so long?

[IllegalD]

I'm not drawing any large conclusions.

Just that Kobe has done nothing of note in the playoffs in game winning situations.

That's it... You butt hurt fans just can't admit that.

It's really that simple.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teIq5v0tTnY

https://youtu.be/VWPWvJ2wr44?t=313

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWIVPe2hfeA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCIPacbNxk0

:confusedshrug:

BTW. Only ONE of LeBron's "epic game winners" happened in a playoffs where he eventually ended up winning the championship. I count at least 2 GWs by Kobe during chip seasons.

But "no game winners of note in the playoffs", right...? :lol

[Trollsmasher]

Kirbystans taking another L

[Yao Ming's Foot]

I'm not drawing any large conclusions.

Just that Kobe has done nothing of note in the playoffs in game winning situations.

That's it... You butt hurt fans just can't admit that.

It's really that simple.

More accurately Kobe has never missed a game winning or tying shot opportunity with any real impact on his team's title chances en route to 5 championships over the course of his legendary career.

We can't really say that for everyone (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3NvhxKicJY)but that's none of my business.

[Springsteen]

The irony of Ray Allen being bottom 10 while Lebron being number one tells me that OP is probably bald and loses a LOT :lol :lol

I'm not a Lebron stan, I'm just posting what I found. No need to hate. :confusedshrug:

[DMAVS41]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teIq5v0tTnY

https://youtu.be/VWPWvJ2wr44?t=313

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWIVPe2hfeA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCIPacbNxk0

:confusedshrug:

BTW. Only ONE of LeBron's "epic game winners" happened in a playoffs where he eventually ended up winning the championship. I count at least 2 GWs by Kobe during chip seasons.

But "no game winners of note in the playoffs", right...? :lol

You misunderstand... Nothing of note overall. Shooting 7 of 28 on these shots is not notable.

[DMAVS41]

More accurately Kobe has never missed a game winning or tying shot opportunity with any real impact on his team's title chances en route to 5 championships over the course of his legendary career.

We can't really say that for everyone (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3NvhxKicJY)but that's none of my business.

God you Kobe stand come up with the most absurd ideas.

[IllegalD]

You misunderstand... Nothing of note overall. Shooting 7 of 28 on these shots is not notable.

b-b-b-b-b-b-BACKPEDAL, like the babyback B*TCH that you are. :roll:

http://media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/170/650/650170.gif

[riseagainst]

dude kobe sucks. Deal with it.

[DMAVS41]

b-b-b-b-b-b-BACKPEDAL, like the babyback B*TCH that you are. :roll:

http://media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/170/650/650170.gif

Yes.

I tried to argue Kobe never made a game winning or big shot late in the playoffs.

You got me

[Yao Ming's Foot]

God you Kobe stand come up with the most absurd ideas.

Can you name a single missed attempt comparable to Duncan blowing that layup in Game 7 of the Finals? How about anything remotely close? :confusedshrug:

[DMAVS41]

Can you name a single missed attempt comparable to Duncan blowing that layup in Game 7 of the Finals? How about anything remotely close? :confusedshrug:

That's called shifting the goal posts. This is only about game winning shots.

Did you fail to read earlier in the thread where I said Kobe has been one of the best clutch players of this era?

I'm just curious if stans like yourself can just admit Kobe has underperformed in these situations. Clearly you can't...

[Solefade]

this thread is awesome

[Yao Ming's Foot]

That's called shifting the goal posts. This is only about game winning shots.

Did you fail to read earlier in the thread where I said Kobe has been one of the best clutch players of this era?

I'm just curious if stans like yourself can just admit Kobe has underperformed in these situations. Clearly you can't...

I can't say any player has underpeformed in anything if I don't know what the average for that situation is.

Can you however admit that Kobe Bryant has never missed a game winning shot opportunity in the playoffs that had any real impact on a contending team vying for a title?

[Magic 32]

Does it really matter if he turned it over as long as Ray Allen made it the game winning shot to prevent his team from losing the finals


It might.

[JohnFreeman]

I'm not drawing any large conclusions.

Just that Kobe has done nothing of note in the playoffs in game winning situations.

That's it... You butt hurt fans just can't admit that.

It's really that simple.
Damn

[kuniva_dAMiGhTy]

I can't say any player has underpeformed in anything if I don't know what the average for that situation is.

Can you however admit that Kobe Bryant has never missed a game winning shot opportunity in the playoffs that had any real impact on a contending team vying for a title?
Why would that matter though?

Attempting a game-winner under under both scenarios is still make or miss. :oldlol:

[Yao Ming's Foot]

Why would that matter though?

Attempting a game-winner under under both scenarios is still make or miss. :oldlol:

Context. :confusedshrug:

Duncan blowing that layup late in Game 7 of the NBA Finals mattered more than every Kobe missed shot in these situations COMBINED.

[DMAVS41]

I can't say any player has underpeformed in anything if I don't know what the average for that situation is.

Can you however admit that Kobe Bryant has never missed a game winning shot opportunity in the playoffs that had any real impact on a contending team vying for a title?

Kobe isn't an average player. Therefore average for him is different than league average.

If you hold Kobe to elite status...average is around 35 to 40 percent it seems when we look at it.

The 11 Lakers were definitely vying for a title. His missed game winner in game 1 could have completely altered that series. That sweep was very close in reality. The difference was the crunch time play of the Mavs/Dirk vs the crunch time play of the Lakers/Kobe.

You simply can't make a comment about how all of Kobe's misses have less impact than one shot by Duncan.

And 538 did a weighted leverage impact study on Kobe's misses and his misses were huge according to them. So I'm not sure where you are getting this idea that none of Kobe's misses mattered.

Still a red herring and shifting of the goal posts, but I'm not even sure what you are saying is remotely accurate.

Here is the line from the 538 study:

(By contrast, Bryant generated 3.2 fewer points than expected and did it in games that were about 64 percent more important than the average playoff game, compounding the damage of his 1-for-10 performance.)

I'm not putting much weight in that to be honest, but I trust that a whole lot more than you just making claims.

[tpols]

Bingo.

Wait.. i don't get it. if it cant be used to predict, what use does it have?

I think the problem is Billups piece and kobe have always been known to hit daggers and momentum changing shots elsewhere that teams gear up extra on them while they stubbornly try to live up to their reputations..

Teams will give lebron one on one coverage and even concede jumpshots to him because they know he wants to layup or pass. So he gets to cherry pick his opportunities against lesser attention.. and essentially pad his numbers for these situational stats.

[DMAVS41]

Wait.. i don't get it. if it cant be used to predict, what use does it have?

I think the problem is Billups piece and kobe have always been known to hit daggers and momentum changing shots elsewhere that teams gear up extra on them while they stubbornly try to live up to their reputations..

Teams will give lebron one on one coverage and even concede jumpshots to him because they know he wants to layup or pass. So he gets to cherry pick his opportunities against lesser attention.. and essentially pad his numbers for these situational stats.

It can tell you who was better at something when comparing their careers. Have to give players credit for actually doing shit.

Kobe deserves his rep as a great crunch time player....Billups doesn't overall in my opinion.

[tpols]

It can tell you who was better at something when comparing their careers. Have to give players credit for actually doing shit.

Kobe deserves his rep as a great crunch time player....Billups doesn't overall in my opinion.

You just don't understand billups then because he was king of the pull up 3 off a turnover to force a timeout. Wish we had a stat for that. He hit daggers and momentum changing shots

. a dagger can come 47 seconds left in the game after one team cuts a 15 point lead to 5 and then Chauncey hits a 3 to put the comeback completely out. He did stuff like that.. and it isn't captured in any of these stats.

Problem is his reputation led to more attention, and he retained the same confidence he had when he was doing it without that extra attention..

Nicknames don't come out of thin air.. it wasn't just fabricated or something..he hit big shots lol

[Yao Ming's Foot]

Kobe isn't an average player. Therefore average for him is different than league average.

If you hold Kobe to elite status...average is around 35 to 40 percent it seems when we look at it.

The 11 Lakers were definitely vying for a title. His missed game winner in game 1 could have completely altered that series. That sweep was very close in reality. The difference was the crunch time play of the Mavs/Dirk vs the crunch time play of the Lakers/Kobe.

You simply can't make a comment about how all of Kobe's misses have less impact than one shot by Duncan.

And 538 did a weighted leverage impact study on Kobe's misses and his misses were huge according to them. So I'm not sure where you are getting this idea that none of Kobe's misses mattered.

Still a red herring and shifting of the goal posts, but I'm not even sure what you are saying is remotely accurate.

Here is the line from the 538 study:

(By contrast, Bryant generated 3.2 fewer points than expected and did it in games that were about 64 percent more important than the average playoff game, compounding the damage of his 1-for-10 performance.)

I'm not putting much weight in that to be honest, but I trust that a whole lot more than you just making claims.

:biggums:

The 2011 Lakers lost games 2,3 and 4 by an average of 18 points. It wasn't "very close" in reality. That's an absurd statement. Then they would have to beat the Durant/Westbrook/Harden Thunder without home court advantage. Then the Heat without home court advantage. If this is his "worst" missed opportunity then I stand by original statement that its not remotely in the same ballpark as Duncan's blown layup.

You don't need a "study" to look at 9 missed shot attempts. What were they? How many of them were made in years they won the title anyway? How many were made in years they were early round fodder at best?

[DMAVS41]

You just don't understand billups then because he was king of the pull up 3 off a turnover to force a timeout. Wish we had a stat for that. He hit daggers and momentum changing shots

. a dagger can come 47 seconds left in the game after one team cuts a 15 point lead to 5 and then Chauncey hits a 3 to put the comeback completely out. He did stuff like that.. and it isn't captured in any of these stats.

Problem is his reputation led to more attention, and he retained the same confidence he had when he was doing it without that extra attention..

Nicknames don't come out of thin air.. it wasn't just fabricated or something..he hit big shots lol

I don't understand Billups? Okay...really not here to debate Billups. Always over-rated late in games in my opinion.

But I'm not talking about clutch.

This thread was only about game winning shots.

So why even bring up other stuff? I certainly have made it clear I don't think clutch is just game winners. In fact, I said it was a small piece of the puzzle. Especially small on some of this stuff.

So you can have both. You can have Kobe be subpar on game winners and a great clutch player.

It's just priceless that we have all this information and you guys still won't admit his rep in game winning situations was over blown. It's just a fact...

[DMAVS41]

:biggums:

The 2011 Lakers lost games 2,3 and 4 by an average of 18 points. It wasn't "very close" in reality. That's an absurd statement. Then they would have to beat the Durant/Westbrook/Harden Thunder without home court advantage. Then the Heat without home court advantage. If this is his "worst" missed opportunity then I stand by original statement that its not remotely in the same ballpark as Duncan's blown layup.

You don't need a "study" to look at 9 missed shot attempts. What were they? How many of them were made in years they won the title anyway? How many were made in years they were early round fodder at best?

Dude...games 1 and 3 were down to wire games. Game 2...the Lakers were down 6 entering the 4th iirc.

I just came up with an example off the top of my head that answered your question. And the Lakers were absolutely vying for a title. Getting beat by the champs...doesn't mean they couldn't have won. Literally games 1 and 3 were toss ups with a minute left.

We have no idea what is changed if Kobe makes that game 1 shot to win.


Also, we do need a study...because the best stats guys in the business just did one that completely contradicts you. I'll go with them on this...sorry.

[Yao Ming's Foot]

Dude...games 1 and 3 were down to wire games. Game 2...the Lakers were down 6 entering the 4th iirc.

I just came up with an example off the top of my head that answered your question. And the Lakers were absolutely vying for a title. Getting beat by the champs...doesn't mean they couldn't have won. Literally games 1 and 3 were toss ups with a minute left.

We have no idea what is changed if Kobe makes that game 1 shot to win.


Also, we do need a study...because the best stats guys in the business just did one that completely contradicts you. I'll go with them on this...sorry.

You need a "study' and "defer to the experts" to analyze 9 missed shot attempts but have no qualms about claiming the Lakers getting swept by the Mavs in 2011 was a "very close" series despite an 18 pt average spread in the final 3 games.

Ok buddy. :roll:

Where do you think the statistical experts would rate that series in terms of competitiveness relative to the history of the NBA?

[Hey Yo]

25 or 6 to 4 > 538

[tpols]

I don't understand Billups? Okay...really not here to debate Billups. Always over-rated late in games in my opinion.

But I'm not talking about clutch.

This thread was only about game winning shots.

So why even bring up other stuff? I certainly have made it clear I don't think clutch is just game winners. In fact, I said it was a small piece of the puzzle. Especially small on some of this stuff.

So you can have both. You can have Kobe be subpar on game winners and a great clutch player.

It's just priceless that we have all this information and you guys still won't admit his rep in game winning situations was over blown. It's just a fact...

Clutch is taking shots most wouldn't have the balls to take. They happen across the game. It's run capping or run starting momentum changing shots.

This thread is using very narrow criteria to wholly imply clutchness...i'm just saying.. Billups has been been clutch.and the lack of scope in this criteria is unfair to his overall clutch ability.

[DMAVS41]

Clutch is taking shots most wouldn't have the balls to take. They happen across the game. It's run capping or run starting momentum changing shots.

This thread is using very narrow criteria to wholly imply clutchness...i'm just saying.. Billups has been been clutch.and the lack of scope in this criteria is unfair to his overall clutch ability.

Why are you talking to me about this? I literally said the exact same thing earlier.

I disagree with you on Billups, but totally agree this is shit is way too narrow for it to mean much.

All it shows is which players have performed better or worse in game winning shot situations within certain time frames.

On both time frames posted...Kobe was subpar...on one of them...he was very poor. That is all it means...there is not broad conclusion to draw about his ability late in games other than exactly that.

What I find funny/interesting...is there are still Kobe stans that refuse to accept factual reality.

And lets no play dumb...you guys were going on and on about Kobe being the best game winning shot maker in the league way back before we had the actual data. Just admit you guys were biased and only remembered the great shots and totally ignored all the misses and bad plays. We have the data now...it's as simple as that.

These two statements are statements that even die hard Kobe stans should be able to accept:

1. Kobe is one of the best late game players of this era and overall very clutch

2. Kobe is not one of the best game winning shot makers of this era...especially in the biggest game winning shots in the playoffs

It's not hard.

[DMAVS41]

You need a "study' and "defer to the experts" to analyze 9 missed shot attempts but have no qualms about claiming the Lakers getting swept by the Mavs in 2011 was a "very close" series despite an 18 pt average spread in the final 3 games.

Ok buddy. :roll:

Where do you think the statistical experts would rate that series in terms of competitiveness relative to the history of the NBA?

They'd rate the first 3 games very close if they had brains. You are using 1 blowout game in which Kobe and his team laid down (as usual in elimination games) to argue something we watched happen.

Again...games 1 and 3 were toss ups with 1 minute to go. Game 2 saw the Lakers only down 6 entering the 4th.

If Kobe makes that game winner in game 1...who knows what would have happened. I answered your question and you don't like it...sorry. The Lakers were vying for a title and Kobe missed a big game winning shot.

How about in 10 when he missed the shot that Artest put back? That wasn't a huge game winning shot? What if Kobe isn't bailed out and they lose that game? Gonna act like the Lakers are still a lock to win or something?

This shit is fragile.

We just saw the best in the business weight Kobe's 9 misses on those 10 shots on average to be in games 64% more important than the average playoff game. To argue his misses didn't matter at all is a shifting of the goal posts...

Even if they didn't...he still missed them.

So when we are talking about the best game winning shot makers of this era in the playoffs. Kobe shouldn't be on the short list.

Which has literally been my point on this crap since I joined this forum.

I've been proven right...you guys have been proven wrong.

It's over...take the L.

Please...take the L.

[Yao Ming's Foot]

They'd rate the first 3 games very close if they had brains. You are using 1 blowout game in which Kobe and his team laid down (as usual in elimination games) to argue something we watched happen.

Again...games 1 and 3 were toss ups with 1 minute to go. Game 2 saw the Lakers only down 6 entering the 4th.

If Kobe makes that game winner in game 1...who knows what would have happened. I answered your question and you don't like it...sorry. The Lakers were vying for a title and Kobe missed a big game winning shot.

Yeah I'm pretty sure they would rate less competitive than every series that went 7 games, then 6 games, then 5 games.

Then among teams they were swept they would rank them them less competitive than playoff teams that were not blown out two of the games, then behind teams that were actually close at the end of the game not a minute before the game has ended.

In other words you are a genuinely a complete moron for claiming this series was "very close".


How about in 10 when he missed the shot that Artest put back? That wasn't a huge game winning shot? What if Kobe isn't bailed out and they lose that game? Gonna act like the Lakers are still a lock to win or something?

This shit is fragile.

We just saw the best in the business weight Kobe's 9 misses on those 10 shots on average to be in games 64% more important than the average playoff game. To argue his misses didn't matter at all is a shifting of the goal posts...

What about it? The Lakers won the game and the title later in the season. How does that missed shot compare to Duncan blowing a layup in Game 7 of the NBA Finals? One is irrelevant yet the other blew his team's title opportunity.



So when we are talking about the best game winning shot makers of this era in the playoffs. Kobe shouldn't be on the short list.

Which has literally been my point on this crap since I joined this forum.

I've been proven right...you guys have been proven wrong.

It's over...take the L.

Please...take the L.


Nobody claimed that Kobe would have the highest game winning shot percentage against the field with X seconds on the clock. That's not clutch. That's just variance, luck and random chance.

Kobe's just the most feared and trusted playoff performer of his generation because of his overall play through 5 championship runs and 7 Finals appearances. That's the definition of clutch. That's why Paul Pierce is clutch. That's why Chauncy Billups is clutch. That's why Jerry West is clutch. That's why Robert Horry and Derick Fisher are clutch. The definition didn't change just because basketball-reference upgraded their play by play tool.

:confusedshrug:

[DMAVS41]

Yeah I'm pretty sure they would rate less competitive than every series that went 7 games, then 6 games, then 5 games.

Then among teams they were swept they would rank them them less competitive than playoff teams that were not blown out two of the games, then behind teams that were actually close at the end of the game not a minute before the game has ended.

In other words you are a genuinely a complete moron for claiming this series was "very close".



What about it? The Lakers won the game and the title later in the season. How does that missed shot compare to Duncan blowing a layup in Game 7 of the NBA Finals? One is irrelevant yet the other blew his team's title opportunity.



Nobody claimed that Kobe would have the highest game winning shot percentage against the field with X seconds on the clock. That's not clutch. That's just variance, luck and random chance.

Kobe's just the most feared and trusted playoff performer of his generation because of his overall play through 5 championship runs and 7 Finals appearances. That's the definition of clutch. That's why Paul Pierce is clutch. That's why Chauncy Billups is clutch. That's why Jerry West is clutch. That's why Robert Horry and Derick Fisher are clutch. The definition didn't change just because basketball-reference upgraded their play by play tool.

:confusedshrug:


You asked for examples about Kobe missing important game winning shots while his team was vying for a title. I've given you two.

A study has been done saying that Kobe's 9 misses on those shots on average were 64% more important than a regular playoff game.

And just no...everybody was arguing that Kobe was the best game winning shot maker.

Why do you ****ing clowns keep trying to explain to me what clutch is? I've repeatedly made by position clear on this.

For whatever reason...Rose and Kobe fans are beyond delusional when it comes to actual facts.

Kobe being the most feared playoff performer is your opinion. A fine opinion, but don't try to pass that off as factual. For starters, I'd fear Shaq, Duncan, Lebron, and Dirk in the playoffs more than Kobe. Just my opinion...

Also...you could talk about luck, variance, and random chance for many things in basketball. Title runs could be thought of like that. The 02 Kings series was absolutely that. Game 7 in 2010 was absolutely that. The Artest play I talked about above was absolutely that. Kobe's 00 finals and his team still winning is absolutely that.

You could play that card with virtually every player and almost all teams that didn't easily cruise to the title like the 01 Lakers.

[Yao Ming's Foot]

You asked for examples about Kobe missing important game winning shots while his team was vying for a title. I've given you two.

A study has been done saying that Kobe's 9 misses on those shots on average were 64% more important than a regular playoff game.

And just no...everybody was arguing that Kobe was the best game winning shot maker.

That's not what I asked.


Can you however admit that Kobe Bryant has never missed a game winning shot opportunity in the playoffs that had any real impact on a contending team vying for a title?


Your 2 examples don't hold merit.

The 2011 Lakers were not a contender based on how their play the remainder of that series. They were swept. It wasn't remotely close or competitive. They didn't win a single game.

The other shot had no real impact as the Lakers won the game seconds later. They also won the title that year.



Why do you ****ing clowns keep trying to explain to me what clutch is? I've repeatedly made by position clear on this.

For whatever reason...Rose and Kobe fans are beyond delusional when it comes to actual facts.

Kobe being the most feared playoff performer is your opinion. A fine opinion, but don't try to pass that off as factual. For starters, I'd fear Shaq, Duncan, Lebron, and Dirk in the playoffs more than Kobe. Just my opinion...


The anti Kobe is not clutch circlejerk began in response to coaches and GM polls citing Kobe as the player they would most likely want the ball in their hands at the end of games. Its also gained some more steam when Kobe dropped a bunch of game winners during the same season (08?). We keep bringing up what clutch means because that is what the GMs considered before making that selection. Nobody ever claimed he would have the highest field goal percentage against the field in those situations if a study was done.


Also...you could talk about luck, variance, and random chance for many things in basketball. Title runs could be thought of like that. The 02 Kings series was absolutely that. Game 7 in 2010 was absolutely that. The Artest play I talked about above was absolutely that. Kobe's 00 finals and his team still winning is absolutely that.

You could play that card with virtually every player and almost all teams that didn't easily cruise to the title like the 01 Lakers.

Right but the amount of luck variance and random chance in looking at the last 5 seconds of a ballgame is infinitesimally larger compared to entire playoffs as a whole. Which is why nobody cares about it aside from the stat guys still looking for the formula that erases the painful history of Kobe Bryant as a a 5 time champion.

[Simple Jack]

Lol Yao Ming's Foot makes a claim, gets refuted by a study and given examples, and continues arguing as if nothing happened. IIRC, he did this in another thread arguing that total assist numbers proved to be a valid measure of ranking passing ability (as opposed to assist averages for the season).

He's like a grown up version of Lakers Reign.

[IllegalD]

:roll: at taking Dirk over Kobe in the playoffs.

Dude has some of the biggest chokejobs on his resume and won less rings than someone with the help he's had throughout his career should've won. :facepalm

[Hoopz2332]

This has been known for years:pimp:


http://i.imgur.com/rEhQ8it.png

http://i.imgur.com/7EfbL0O.jpg








Kobe and the Clutch Playoff Performance Myth (2011)


[quote][b]In my 25 plus years of following the NBA, one of the more fascinating phenomena to me has been the plight of those that I refer to as

[ImKobe]

this is fake

[jayfan]

Impressive, if true.

And last night's OT shot saved him from having the least-impactful triple-double in NBA history. He owes a debt of thanks to Shumpert for missing that free throw.



.