UK2K's Draft Lottery v1.0

[UK2K]

I haven't done a 'draft prediction' yet. Wanted to get a feel for who would shine, who wanted who, etc. With about two weeks left, here's where I think these guys will fall.

Admittedly I watch a lot more college ball than NBA ball, but I think the top 4 will be all-stars within a few seasons.

Cauley-Stein, Hezonja, and Trey Lyles have a chance to be all-stars as well, although they may take a little more time.

My steal of the draft is Indiana getting Kaminsky.



V1.0 6/12
1) Minnesota – Karl-Anthony Towns
2) LA Lakers – Jahlil Okafor
3) Philadelphia – D’Angelo Russell
4) NY Knicks - Emmanuel Mudiay
5) Orlando – Justise Winslow
6) Sacramento – Willie Caulie-Stein
7) Denver – Kristaps Porzingis
8) Detroit – Stanley Johnson
9) Charlotte – Mario Hezonja
10) Miami – Myles Turner
11) Indiana – Frank Kaminsky
12) Utah – Sam Dekker
13) Phoenix – Jerian Grant
14) Oklahoma City – Trey Lyles






V2.0 6/18
1) Minnesota – Karl-Anthony Towns
2) LA Lakers – Jahlil Okafor
3) Philadelphia – Kristaps Porzingis
4) NY Knicks - D'Angelo Russell
5) Orlando – Emmanuel Mudiay
6) Sacramento – Willie Caulie-Stein
7) Denver – Justise Winslow
8) Detroit – Mario Hezonja
9) Charlotte – Frank Kaminsky
10) Miami – Stanley Johnson
11) Indiana – Trey Lyles
12) Utah – Sam Dekker
13) Phoenix – Myles Turner
14) Oklahoma City – Devin Booker





V3.0 6/23
1) Minnesota – Karl-Anthony Towns
2) LA Lakers – Jahlil Okafor
3) Philadelphia – D'angelo Russell
4) NY Knicks - Kristaps Porzingis
5) Orlando – Justise Winslow
6) Sacramento – Mario Hezonja
7) Denver – Emmanuel Mudiay
8) Detroit – Stanley Johnson
9) Charlotte – Willie Cauley-Stein
10) Miami – Devin Booker
11) Indiana – Frank Kaminsky
12) Utah – Myles Turner
13) Phoenix – Trey Lyles
14) Oklahoma City – Cameron Payne



V3.5 6/25
1) Minnesota – Karl-Anthony Towns - Tim Duncan
2) LA Lakers – Jahlil Okafor - Brook Lopez
3) Philadelphia – D'angelo Russell - Demar Derozan
4) NY Knicks - Kristaps Porzingis -Andrea Bargnani
5) Orlando – Justise Winslow - Wilson Chandler
6) Sacramento – Emmanuel Mudiay - John Wall minus the athleticism
7) Denver – Mario Hezonja - No idea
8) Detroit – Stanley Johnson - Andre Iguodala
9) Charlotte – Devin Booker - JJ Reddick
10) Miami – Myles Turner - Poor man's Dirk (dude shoots 89% from the FT line, 40% from deep)
11) Indiana – Willie Cauley-Stein (Tyson Chandler but more athletic, perfect fit for Indiana)
12) Utah – Frank Kaminsky - Pero Antic. Steal of the draft.
13) Phoenix – Trey Lyles - David West.
14) Oklahoma City – Cameron Payne - George Hill.

[Shade8780]

Charlotte gonna right the wrong of trading Kobe with Hezonja :applause:

[imdaman99]

I'll take it. Mudiay is an explosive and athletic guard, something the Knicks haven't had since Spree.

Also, thought OKC made a promise to some point guard. Although Lyles is good value there.

[ISHGoat]

taking okafor over russell will set the lakers back 5 years, book it

okafor is going to be a massive bust

[WallBe]

Also, thought OKC made a promise to some point guard. Although Lyles is good value there.

They made a promise to Cameron Payne but he may move up. Apparently his workouts with the Kings went great but it's still unlikely they pick him instead of WCS.

[Mawly-G]

I'll take it. Mudiay is an explosive and athletic guard, something the Knicks haven't had since Spree.

Also, thought OKC made a promise to some point guard. Although Lyles is good value there.
Mudiay has potential to be the next Steve Francis. I really hope the Knicks don't do anything stupid with this pick.

[UK2K]

I'll take it. Mudiay is an explosive and athletic guard, something the Knicks haven't had since Spree.

Also, thought OKC made a promise to some point guard. Although Lyles is good value there.

I think Lyles on OKC would be wicked awesome.

He's a David West type guy. Dependable, knock down shooter, always in the right place, doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective. He can space the floor and stroke mid-range jumpers.

I'm hearing talk of Payne going higher in the draft, and when the order was first announced he was slotted around #20-22. I was hoping the Rockets could nab him at #18 (at the time).

I just think OKC has other issues more pressing before drafting a 6'2" PG, although I hear there is interest from both sides, as if that means anything.

[Mawly-G]

I think Lyles on OKC would be wicked awesome.

He's a David West type guy. Dependable, knock down shooter, always in the right place, doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective. He can space the floor and stroke mid-range jumpers.

I'm hearing talk of Payne going higher in the draft, and when the order was first announced he was slotted around #20-22. I was hoping the Rockets could nab him at #18 (at the time).

I just think OKC has other issues more pressing before drafting a 6'2" PG, although I hear there is interest from both sides, as if that means anything.
Not sure why OKC would want to draft Payne, considering that they have a very good backup already with DJ. I know Payne has been impressing a lot of folks with his workouts though.

[UK2K]

Not sure why OKC would want to draft Payne, considering that they have a very good backup already with DJ. I know Payne has been impressing a lot of folks with his workouts though.
He has one year left on his contract.

[Mawly-G]

He has one year left on his contract.
Ah ok. Gotcha

[UK2K]

TTT

Movers and shakers.

Still hoping Houston can snag Cameron Payne with the 18th pick.

[Knicksfever2010]

no way the Knicks take Mudiay, horrible shooter. I'd rather have Winslow. MMmkay? buh bye

[BlakFrankWhite]

Am I the only one who think Towns won't become the superstar he's being hyped up to be?

Sure he'll be an all-star...maybe even a franchise player...but a top 5 player? Nah.

[UK2K]

no way the Knicks take Mudiay, horrible shooter. I'd rather have Winslow. MMmkay? buh bye

John Wall was a horrible shooter when he was 19 too.

You don't want him either?

He shot 48% from the floor and 35% from the 3pt line, at 19. His mechanics and form are there, better than Wall at the same age.

[UK2K]

Am I the only one who think Towns won't become the superstar he's being hyped up to be?

Sure he'll be an all-star...maybe even a franchise player...but a top 5 player? Nah.

Probably the only one.

There isn't anything he isn't good at.

Out of curiosity, why do you think he won't pan out?

[HOoopCityJones]

taking okafor over russell will set the lakers back 5 years, book it

okafor is going to be a massive bust


Further confirmation none of you know a damn thing about Basketball.

[SwishSquared]

John Wall was a horrible shooter when he was 19 too.

You don't want him either?

He shot 48% from the floor and 35% from the 3pt line, at 19. His mechanics and form are there, better than Wall at the same age.He definitely is further along as a shooter compared to Wall, Rose, or Westbrook. I think, however, he's a lot closer to Tyreke Evans athletically than those other three guys. I'm not trying to knock him down- he'll be able to break down the D off the dribble pretty well. He's just not a blur. He does have nice passing vision and is learning to freeze the help man, which is a critical PnR skill.

I think his mechanics aren't that great- he apparently doesn't hold consistent form. His low FT% has plagued him since HS. The 35% from deep is encouraging since CBA uses the NBA line, but he shot in the low 60s in high school from the FT line. Can be tricky to differentiate signal/noise given the sample sizes. I think he eventually will be able to hit Js if the defense goes under screens, but I wonder how much floor spacing he'll need.

If you guys have the time, listen to the Dunc'd On podcast that had the guy from the DX videos as a guest. Really interesting listen.

[UK2K]

He definitely is further along as a shooter compared to Wall, Rose, or Westbrook. I think, however, he's a lot closer to Tyreke Evans athletically than those other three guys. I'm not trying to knock him down- he'll be able to break down the D off the dribble pretty well. He's just not a blur. He does have nice passing vision and is learning to freeze the help man, which is a critical PnR skill.

I think his mechanics aren't that great- he apparently doesn't hold consistent form. His low FT% has plagued him since HS. The 35% from deep is encouraging since CBA uses the NBA line, but he shot in the low 60s in high school from the FT line. Can be tricky to differentiate signal/noise given the sample sizes. I think he eventually will be able to hit Js if the defense goes under screens, but I wonder how much floor spacing he'll need.

If you guys have the time, listen to the Dunc'd On podcast that had the guy from the DX videos as a guest. Really interesting listen.

I think with work from professional coaches and trainers, almost anything can be fixed if you are willing to put in the effort.

I see him, and I see a 19 year old point guard who will be bigger than almost everyone who will guard him. A 6'8.5" wingspan, he's the perfect guy to check a Curry or CP3 in two years. Tall, lanky, and a nightmare to defend.

I think after Towns and Okafor, this guy has as good a shot as any of being an all-star.

[SwishSquared]

I think with work from professional coaches and trainers, almost anything can be fixed if you are willing to put in the effort.

I see him, and I see a 19 year old point guard who will be bigger than almost everyone who will guard him. A 6'8.5" wingspan, he's the perfect guy to check a Curry or CP3 in two years. Tall, lanky, and a nightmare to defend.

I think after Towns and Okafor, this guy has as good a shot as any of being an all-star.I'm not trying to say he's a bust lol- I'd definitely draft him, but I have Russell above him right now. D-Russell is longer, might be a shade taller, is a better shooter & has better vision imo.

Completely agree on the ability to improve (within reason), but I'm just saying he's had a few years to sort out his FT% and it hasn't yet happened. I only bring that up since FT% can be an indicator for somebody's ability to shoot well from outside in the NBA. Granted, he's only had pro-level coaching for a season and anything he gets in the NBA will trump his CBA coaching/development.

I didn't watch any of his pro grames, so I'm curious how many of those 3PA were pull-ups, stepbacks, C&S, the location, etc. I think that plays a role in evaluating his shooting. For example, Winslow had concerns entering Duke whether he could shoot. He put in the work to learn how to hit open set shots, even if his mid range game and FT shooting leave a lot to be desired.

Like I said, Mudiay will break down the D off the dribble pretty well and he's shown some next-level offensive creation by freezing the helper in the PnR. That's really advanced for a teenager and shows he should be a good PG, if not great. I just have cooled on him a bit as I learned more about his shooting. I believe he'll improve his stroke, but I think he's got some major tweaking to do to improve his mechanics to have a more consistent outside shot.

[Sportal]

Swishsquared with the most interesting read I've had on here in ages..

What do you think Russell will be best at? PG or SG and why?

[Xiao Yao You]

Jazz need a center or a trade.

[UK2K]

Updated again.

Will do one more before the draft.

It would really help if the Knicks knew what they were doing, because I don't think the draft actually begins until the 1, 2, and 3 guys (in that order) are gone.

[ClipperRevival]

I think Russell is going to be a good one. I really hope Lakers take him at 2 but 90% likely, we go with Okafor. 5 years from now, people might be saying, "We had a chance to draft Russell."

[UK2K]

Swishsquared with the most interesting read I've had on here in ages..

What do you think Russell will be best at? PG or SG and why?

I have stated my convictions that Russell will play SG in the NBA. He just will.

I could be wrong, but IMO his talents are not going to be utilized unless he's running off screens into flare cuts and across the baseline on deep cuts. I think hes a Demar Derozan type player and I think will mimic Derozan's progression (year 5 he was dropping 23, 5 and 5).

[UK2K]

I think Russell is going to be a good one. I really hope Lakers take him at 2 but 90% likely, we go with Okafor. 5 years from now, people might be saying, "We had a chance to draft Russell."

I think you may be right.

The hype behind Okafor is too much, but I think Russell may be the better pick in 5 years.

[HurricaneKid]

Updated again.

Will do one more before the draft.

It would really help if the Knicks knew what they were doing, because I don't think the draft actually begins until the 1, 2, and 3 guys (in that order) are gone.

KAT is all but gone at pick #1.

I think its a crapshoot after that. I think Okafor is dropping a fair amount. A big who cannot defend even a little and his sole offensive skill is to post up (name the top 5 post up players in the league - hint there aren't 5).

He has motor issues, he doesn't love the game, fitness issues, terrible footwork, etc. I think his likelihood of busting is really high. Meanwhile, Zinger and Hezonja are climbing.

I'd bet pretty much anyone even money getting picks 2 and 3 right at this point. Because 3 is a big question mark too. I've seen a bunch of mocks with Russell going 4.

[ClipperRevival]

The karma thinking guy in me thinks NY ends up with Russell and they get the Curry they've always wanted. It's up to the Lakers to prevent that from happening and taking him at #2.

[ClipperRevival]

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/106822/the-reasons-analytics-love-dangelo-russell

According to some advanced analytics formula, Russell has the greatest chance of being a superstar.

[UK2K]

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/106822/the-reasons-analytics-love-dangelo-russell

According to some advanced analytics formula, Russell has the greatest chance of being a superstar.

[QUOTE]As much as analytics love Russell, it is also important to recognize that SPM predicts a high probability of him being a bust. Among SPM

[ClipperRevival]

Again, I think it is totally based on how he will be used in the league.

And I've had the PG/SG argument on these boards for the last week, but I think if he is drafted to be a PG and is used as a PG, he won't reach his ceiling.

Just as Harden/Derozan/Monta play SG but still handle the ball a lot in the half court, that's where he needs to be.

Not to mention defensively I can't see him staying in front of many NBA caliber PG's.

I don't understand why you are so stuck pigeon holing him to a specific position. I'm sure you are aware that the line between 1 and 2 is blurry in today's game. It's a PLUS that he can play both positions, not a negative. If he has to play the 2, he has the scoring abilities and right size to do that. If he has to play the 1, he is taller than most 1s and also has the vision, passing abilities and handles to do that.

[UK2K]

I don't understand why you are so stuck pigeon holing him to a specific position. I'm sure you are aware that the line between 1 and 2 is blurry in today's game. It's a PLUS that he can play both positions, not a negative. If he has to play the 2, he has the scoring abilities and right size to do that. If he has to play the 1, he is taller than most 1s and also has the vision, passing abilities and handles to do that.

Because the way I see it, the Center on the floor will guard the other team's Center. That's why you can't play 5 point guards. It'd be super awesome and you could run and gun all day, but at some point you have to play defense. Just like 5 centers would be cool to go out and play together, but there is more involved than just 'he is this tall so he plays this position'.

Not that it's all about defense. I think his talents are better suited to catching the ball off a screen with enough room to decide whether to shoot or drive, and if you drive, do you choose to go to the rim or shoot a floater.

I think his skill set is best suited to the type of guy who can create shots for himself. I think he's more effective coming off a screen then he is running a straight basket drive.

That's not to say he can't play point guard. Bosh isn't a center, but he still plays one from time to time, which is fine. On the flip side, while the 4 and 5 are now similar positions, they are still not the same. Just as the 1 and 2 positions are similar, and many players can play both, they are not the same.

Do you want CP3 at the 2? Do you want Westbrook at the 2? Why not? For two entirely different reasons. CP3 needs to be initiating the offense, and Westbrook needs to have the ball in his hands. Can Westbook play the 2? Sure, but I don't think he's AS effective playing out of position, the same way I don't think Davis is AS effective playing center as he is playing PF.

Of course you can play Davis at the 5 if you want. They have, and its okay, but as I said before, despite the positions becoming slightly blurred, they still have specific roles.

In rare instances you could play Harden at the 1 because Trevor Ariza is more often than not going to be defending the best player on the other team. If it happens to be Steph or CP3, even better. That, of course, causes problems elsewhere.

He has ball handling abilities, but I would prefer him to master the art of moving without the ball (ala Klay Thompson).

[ClipperRevival]

Because the way I see it, the Center on the floor will guard the other team's Center. That's why you can't play 5 point guards. It'd be super awesome and you could run and gun all day, but at some point you have to play defense. Just like 5 centers would be cool to go out and play together, but there is more involved than just 'he is this tall so he plays this position'.

Not that it's all about defense. I think his talents are better suited to catching the ball off a screen with enough room to decide whether to shoot or drive, and if you drive, do you choose to go to the rim or shoot a floater.

I think his skill set is best suited to the type of guy who can create shots for himself. I think he's more effective coming off a screen then he is running a straight basket drive.

That's not to say he can't play point guard. Bosh isn't a center, but he still plays one from time to time, which is fine. On the flip side, while the 4 and 5 are now similar positions, they are still not the same. Just as the 1 and 2 positions are similar, and many players can play both, they are not the same.

Do you want CP3 at the 2? Do you want Westbrook at the 2? Why not? For two entirely different reasons. CP3 needs to be initiating the offense, and Westbrook needs to have the ball in his hands. Can Westbook play the 2? Sure, but I don't think he's AS effective playing out of position, the same way I don't think Davis is AS effective playing center as he is playing PF.

Of course you can play Davis at the 5 if you want. They have, and its okay, but as I said before, despite the positions becoming slightly blurred, they still have specific roles.

In rare instances you could play Harden at the 1 because Trevor Ariza is more often than not going to be defending the best player on the other team. If it happens to be Steph or CP3, even better. That, of course, causes problems elsewhere.

He has ball handling abilities, but I would prefer him to master the art of moving without the ball (ala Klay Thompson).

I just disagree with your assessment of where he should play. You seem to think he's some limited catch and shoot guy like Klay. Nothing could be further from the truth. The guy has off the charts skills. He can handle the rock, create his own shot, create for others, shoot the ball, sees the court, and has high bball. He's exactly what you want in a PG and also exactly what you want in a SG. He can excel in both positions because he has the skills and traits to excel at both.

[UK2K]

I just disagree with your assessment of where he should play. You seem to think he's some limited catch and shoot guy like Klay. Nothing could be further from the truth. The guy has off the charts skills. He can handle the rock, create his own shot, create for others, shoot the ball, sees the court, and has high bball. He's exactly what you want in a PG and also exactly what you want in a SG. He can excel in both positions because he has the skills and traits to excel at both.

This is it, in a nut shell... On offense he has the size and shot to be effective coming off screens (not to mention the vision to be able to dish out the 'hockey' assist which he has been known to do). On defense, he doesn't have the lateral quickness or foot speed to guard NBA point guards.

And as I said, I think in four of five years he will likely average 22, 5, 5 (Derozan stats). If Minn takes KAT, the Lakers need to get Cousins or take Russell because Okafor and Randle will not mix.

Then again, I don't think LA can take anyone but Okafor if Minn takes Towns. The uproar would be too great, and Okafor is too hyped.

Okafor and Nerlens in Philly? Whaaaaaat.

[UK2K]

Final mock up, and Im sticking to it.

Check me on draft night.

[poido123]

taking okafor over russell will set the lakers back 5 years, book it

okafor is going to be a massive bust


He won't be.

Assuming the worst, his post game will produce 20 ppg + alone.


I'm happy for Wolves fans. That team with KAT looks amazing in a few years. Provided management don't f.ck it up.

[UK2K]

He won't be.

Assuming the worst, his post game will produce 20 ppg + alone.


I'm happy for Wolves fans. That team with KAT looks amazing in a few years. Provided management don't f.ck it up.

As I said in another thread, people are trying to say the league is changing, but in reality, GS couldn't have gone with the small ball lineup had Cleveland had an inside presence.

The fact that both teams went to small ball was only because neither team had a low post presence.