PDA

View Full Version : My definitive clutch discussion of Bran, Kobe, Curry, Jordan, etc



sundizz
06-28-2015, 11:56 PM
1996-97: Jordan, Pippen
1997-98: Jordan, Pippen, Stockton, Malone
1998-99: Duncan, Robinson
1999-2000: Bryant, Shaq
2000-2001: Bryant, Shaq, and Iverson
2001-2002: Bryant, Shaq, Kidd
2002-2003: Robinson, Duncan, Kidd
2003-2004: Bryant, Shaq
2004-2005: Duncan
2005-2006: Wade, Nowitzki
2006-2007: Lebron, Duncan
2007-2008: Bryant, Gasol, Garnett
2008-2009: Bryant, Gasol, Howard
2009-2010: Bryant, Gasol, Garnett
2010-2011: Dirk, Lebron, Wade
2011-2012: Russ, Durant, Lebron, Wade
2012-2013: Duncan, Lebron, Wade
2013-2014: Duncan, Lebron, Wade
2014-2015: Curry, Lebron

*If I didn’t include someone on this list it is because they didn’t have anything that great (under 15% PIE AND not someone people generally include in top 20 of all time discussion, such as the Glove).
**I only included players that made it to the finals that year.
***This is for the entire playoffs from that year (meaning, not just finals).

The filters are:
5 point differential or less
Last 5 minutes of the game or OT

(Player Impact Estimate) - Shows what % of a game’s (clutch part of the game’s as described above) events did that player impact:

1. Dirk Nowitzki (10-11): 51.3%
2. Michael Jordan (96-97): 41.2%
3. Dwyane Wade (05-06): 40.4%
4. Lebron James (06-07): 39.5%
5. Kobe Bryant (07-08): 35.5%
6. Lebron James (11-12): 32.2%
7. Kobe Bryant (00-01): 31.4%
8. Allen Iverson (00-01): 31.0%
9. Tim Duncan (06-07): 30.6%
10. Shaquille O’neal (99-00): 30.2%

Kobe Bryant (99-00): 29.9%
Kevin Durant (11-12): 29.0%
Kobe Bryant (09-10): 28.3%
Michael Jordan (97-98): 27.8%
Lebron James (12-13): 27.3
Stephen Curry (14-15): 26.9%
Pau Gasol (08-09): 26.2%
Shaquille O’neal (00-01): 25.8%
Shaquille O’neal (01-02): 25.5%
Pau Gasol (09-10): 25.2%
Dirk Nowiztki (05-06): 24.3%
Tim Duncan (13-14): 23.6%
Lebron James (13-14): 22.2%
Karl Malone (97-98): 20.8%
Kobe Bryant (08-09): 19.7%
Tim Duncan (02-03): 19.7%
Dwyane Wade (11-12): 19.5%
Lebron James (10-11): 19.2%
Jason Kidd (01-02): 18.6%
David Robinson (98-99): 18.5%
Pau Gasol (07-08): 17.7%
David Robinson (02-03): 17%
Tim Duncan (98-99): 16.7%
Jason Kidd (02-03): 16.3%
Scottie Pippen (96-97): 17.1%
Dwyane Wade (10-11): 17.1%
Kobe Bryant (01-02): 17.0%
Lebron James (14-15): 16.5%
Dwyane Wade (13-14): 15.1%
Tim Duncan: (04-05): 14.4%
Dwight Howard (08-09): 14.4%
John Stockton (97-98): 14.0%
Tim Duncan (12-13): 12.9%
Kevin Garnett (07-08): 10.2%
Shaquille O’neal (03-04): 7.2%
Kobe Bryant (03-04): 6.8%
Scottie Pippen (97-98): 6.1%
Dwyane Wade (12-13): 3.7%
Kevin Garnett (09-10): 0.8%
Russell Westbrook (11-12): -1.3%

Net Rating (in the clutch as defined above) is Offensive Rating – Defensive Rating:

1. Dirk Nowitzki (10-11): +71.8
2. David Robinson (98-99): +62.5
3. Tim Duncan (98-99): +54.3
4. Shaquille O’neal (01-02): +50.3
5. Lebron James (13-14): +49.8
6. Kobe Bryant (01-02): +44.4
7. Scottie Pippen (96-97): +40.5
8. Michael Jordan (96-97): +39.7
9. Tim Duncan (13-14): +39.4
10. Lebron James (06-07): +37.3

Tim Duncan (06-07): +36.8
David Robinson (02-03): +35.0
Kobe Bryant (08-09): +32.2
Pau Gasol (08-09): +32.2
Kobe Bryant (99-00): +29.5
Shaquille O’neal (99-00): +29.2
Stephen Curry (14-15): +29.1
Dwyane Wade (13-14): +28.5
Dwyane Wade (05-06): +27.6
Kobe Bryant (00-01): +20.9
Allen Iverson (00-01): +20.7
Kobe Bryant (07-08): +20.3
Lebron James (11-12): +20.2
Dwyane Wade (10-11): +19.2
Lebron James (10-11): +19.2
Tim Duncan (04-05): +18.9
Pau Gasol (07-08): +18.4
Kobe Bryant (09-10): +17.3
Pau Gasol (09-10): +17.3
Scottie Pippen (97-98): +16.3
Michael Jordan (97-98): +16.1
Dwyane Wade (11-12): +13.1
Kevin Durant (11-12): +11.2
Russell Westbrook (11-12): +11.2
Shaquille O’neal (03-04): +10.8
Tim Duncan (02-03): +5.0
Kobe Bryant (03-04): 2.8
Lebron James (14-15): +1.8
Jason Kidd (02-03): +0.0
Shaquille O’neal (00-01): -0.7
Karl Malone (97-98): -0.8
Dirk Nowiztki (05-06): -1.0
John Stockton (97-98): -1.8
Lebron James (12-13): -6.7
Tim Duncan (12-13): -8.0
Kevin Garnett (07-08): -10.2
Dwyane Wade (12-13): -10.4
Jason Kidd (01-02): -10.9
Dwight Howard (08-09): -17.9
Kevin Garnett (09-10): -24.2


This data really shows just how special Dirk’s 2011 run was.

Kobe was the only player with two top 10 finishes for PIE (player’s impact on game events in the clutch). The caveat being that only two of Jordan’s playoff runs are included so he would of most likely changed up the rankings a bit had the data been available for the other four prior years.

Lebron and Duncan both had two top 10 finishes for Net Rating (offensive rating – defensive rating in the clutch) – again Jordan caveat as stated above.

The Admiral had a surprisingly large impact during that championship run in the clutch.

Mr. Jabbar
06-28-2015, 11:59 PM
well, lebron ranks dead last, so your method works :cheers:

SouBeachTalents
06-29-2015, 12:01 AM
Why did you pick '97 out of all the Bulls championship years?

sundizz
06-29-2015, 12:02 AM
Why did you pick '97 out of all the Bulls championship years?

That is the furthest the NBA stats program goes back to. I wanted to pick his 92-93 season.

Rocketswin2013
06-29-2015, 12:05 AM
Source?

SouBeachTalents
06-29-2015, 12:06 AM
That is the furthest the NBA stats program goes back to. I wanted to pick his 92-93 season.

Gotchya. You mind adding others, would definitely like to see Shaq's '00, Duncan's '03, and LeBron's '12 or '13

sundizz
06-29-2015, 12:22 AM
Source: http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/
*You'll have to learn how to play with a little bit (click the widget looking thing to filter)

And sure, I can add more. I'm using this as my break for studying so I'll update the OP with more. I'll likely end up just going through it year by year actually (from 96 to 15).

ImKobe
06-29-2015, 02:10 AM
the stats are incomplete because you don't account for volume

Kobe IIRC has taken more clutch shots than any other player in history, and he does have the most made game-winners in league history.

You should be able to use logic to help determine the most clutch players. Jordan, Kobe, Wade, Dirk and Shaq had that killer instinct when it came to winning time. They always seemed to be money when it was needed the most and they had some unbeliveable stretches in 4th quarters.

Plus, with the exception of Shaq, you should also consider their skillsets. Kobe, Dirk and Jordan are the 3 of the GOAT shooters from mid-range and in the post, Lebron's offensive arsenal pales in comparison. While Lebron in his prime was able to get to the rim a lot in late situations and use his body to get easy shots/go to the line, he's always seemed to miss his jump shots, like we saw in the 2015 Finals. You know he can't be that clutch when most of the fans expect him to miss that long range jumper in the 4th.

Or maybe, clutch is just a myth and all of their results were random luck.

pastis
06-29-2015, 02:12 AM
wow, this thread is gonna be marked. for all the dirk haters.

man.....


Dirk....:bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :applause: :applause: :applause:

SouBeachTalents
06-29-2015, 02:15 AM
the stats are incomplete because you don't account for volume

Kobe IIRC has taken more clutch shots than any other player in history, and he does have the most made game-winners in league history.

You should be able to use logic to help determine the most clutch players. Jordan, Kobe, Wade, Dirk and Shaq had that killer instinct when it came to winning time. They always seemed to be money when it was needed the most and they had some unbeliveable stretches in 4th quarters.

Plus, with the exception of Shaq, you should also consider their skillsets. Kobe, Dirk and Jordan are the 3 of the GOAT shooters from mid-range and in the post, Lebron's offensive arsenal pales in comparison. While Lebron in his prime was able to get to the rim a lot in late situations and use his body to get easy shots/go to the line, he's always seemed to miss his jump shots, like we saw in the 2015 Finals. You know he can't be that clutch when most of the fans expect him to miss that long range jumper in the 4th.

Or maybe, clutch is just a myth and all of their results were random luck.

I think there are some instances of clutch/unclutch play that are random luck, but eventually over a players career a pattern will form. There's no way you could consider the careers of Peyton, A-Rod and Romo as "random luck" after so many seasons of similar results in clutch games & situations

Spurs5Rings2014
06-29-2015, 02:18 AM
Thank you, OP, for finally dispelling the myth that Duncan wasn't the best player in the '07 and '14 play offs.

:applause:

LeFraud James
06-29-2015, 02:22 AM
Excellent post, thanks for taking the time to crunch the numbers.

The case of LeBron being clutch can officially be put to bed; the evidence is irrefutable.

TheBigVeto
06-29-2015, 02:23 AM
Dirk is the most clutch player since Michael Jordan. Fact.

nzahir
06-29-2015, 02:45 AM
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/5/11/8584749/lebron-james-michael-jordan-game-winning-shots
End thread, another shit post by another shit user.
Im only here to enlighten people but you guys just dont understand basketball.

nzahir
06-29-2015, 02:45 AM
Excellent post, thanks for taking the time to crunch the numbers.

The case of LeBron being clutch can officially be put to bed; the evidence is irrefutable.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/5/11/8584749/lebron-james-michael-jordan-game-winning-shots
You have autism

LeFraud James
06-29-2015, 02:58 AM
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/5/11/8584749/lebron-james-michael-jordan-game-winning-shots
End thread, another shit post by another shit user.
Im only here to enlighten people but you guys just dont understand basketball.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I know you're probably too dense to understand the point I'm trying to make though, since you're using an article as a means of attempting to disprove actual stats.

nzahir
06-29-2015, 03:20 AM
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I know you're probably too dense to understand the point I'm trying to make though, since you're using an article as a means of attempting to disprove actual stats.
Too bad the article has ACTUAL stats in it

scandisk_
06-29-2015, 05:08 AM
GAWDBE LEAVING A MARK WHERE IT MATTERED THE MOST.

:bowdown: :bowdown:

and DIRKULEZ RUNS THIS TOWN!

:bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown:

GimmeThat
06-29-2015, 06:09 AM
five minutes left to the game, 300 seconds,
divided by 24, and you have about 12.5 possessions
with time outs, not counting fouls, we leave it to around the average of 18

now, I'll be coming at you with a full agenda right at this clutch stat

would you say that your ranking also shows that players perhaps had the least amount of movement prior to the last five minutes of the game.

since Shaq and Allen Iverson were included, and Dirk as your number 1
I would be hard pressed not to include height/weight in this say calculation

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 08:28 AM
How about you do playoffs entirely? shocking reveal: MJ, Dirk, Bron have been the most consistently clutch in the final 5 minutes, 2 minutes, last second shots.... it doesn't matter what, Kobetards yap about the criteria being the wrong one.

sundizz
06-29-2015, 08:35 AM
How about you do playoffs entirely? shocking reveal: MJ, Dirk, Bron have been the most consistently clutch in the final 5 minutes, 2 minutes, last second shots.... it doesn't matter what, Kobetards yap about the criteria being the wrong one.

What are you talking bout you clown?

This was for the entire playoffs, and uses the common sense clutch time frame of 5 minutes left in the game when the game is within 5.

ISHGoat
06-29-2015, 08:37 AM
did you use data for one season per player or something?

So you basically chose small sample size, out of an already small sample size, to try to fit your agenda?

How about using data for their whole career, regular and postseason ?

sundizz
06-29-2015, 09:48 AM
did you use data for one season per player or something?

So you basically chose small sample size, out of an already small sample size, to try to fit your agenda?

How about using data for their whole career, regular and postseason ?

They are all great players.

I did it for all postseasons where they got to the finals. How much more data is there than that?

For Bron this was 6 postseasons of data, Kobe had 7 postseasons of data, Shaq had 6...etc.

It is quite broad I'd say. What agenda would you like to promote? I didnt even put anything agenda driven in the information. It is all facts. The only definitive, non questionable conclusion is that Dirk was an all time great clutch performer in 2011. Everything else can be interpreted multiple ways.

kuniva_dAMiGhTy
06-29-2015, 09:50 AM
Dirk, MJ and Kobe :applause:

It's funny that even before looking at this thread, I figured them to be clutch beasts. MJ especially obv.

Huge LOL @ '15 LeBron turning out dead last in these categories. Why am I not surprised? :oldlol:

kuniva_dAMiGhTy
06-29-2015, 10:11 AM
They are all great players.

I did it for all postseasons where they got to the finals. How much more data is there than that?

For Bron this was 6 postseasons of data, Kobe had 7 postseasons of data, Shaq had 6...etc.

It is quite broad I'd say. What agenda would you like to promote? I didnt even put anything agenda driven in the information. It is all facts. The only definitive, non questionable conclusion is that Dirk was an all time great clutch performer in 2011. Everything else can be interpreted multiple ways.

Nah good stuff. Its great that you pulled up these stats, because people get too carried away with walk off shots, not realizing THESE stats include not only walk off shots, but other waning moments in the 4th which MUST be accounted for.

What's Clark Kent without a telephone booth basically.. :applause:

ISHGoat
06-29-2015, 10:14 AM
They are all great players.

I did it for all postseasons where they got to the finals. How much more data is there than that?

For Bron this was 6 postseasons of data, Kobe had 7 postseasons of data, Shaq had 6...etc.

It is quite broad I'd say. What agenda would you like to promote? I didnt even put anything agenda driven in the information. It is all facts. The only definitive, non questionable conclusion is that Dirk was an all time great clutch performer in 2011. Everything else can be interpreted multiple ways.

in the OP you said


The players that I took a look at were:

2014-2015: Curry and Bran
2010-2011: Dirk
2009-2010: Bryant
2005-2006: Wade
2000-2001: Bryant, Shaq, and Iverson
1996-97: Jordan and Pippen

So I thought you meant the stats were for 14-15 for bran, 10-11 for dirk, etc which is using 1 season per player. Did you mean you would use data UP TO '10 for kobe, '06 for wade, '97 for jordan, as to only keep the data relevant to their primes?

If so, then I think it would make your data more meaningful if you also took away their pre-prime years, aka kobe benchwarmer years, mj 1-9 years, etc. But then the discussion digresses to "which years count as this player's prime?"

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 10:27 AM
Nah good stuff. Its great that you pulled up these stats, because people get too carried away with walk off shots, not realizing THESE stats include not only walk off shots, but other waning moments in the 4th which MUST be accounted for.

What's Clark Kent without a telephone booth basically.. :applause:

agreed, going down the wire all these things are essential...

http://i.gyazo.com/977fb008956aa2ceec463b9199917d7e.png

LeBron James is 43/96 45% (great)

http://i.gyazo.com/7b8fdd70fe33284e5b2ff46bb6c43e0a.png

Kobe Bryant is 30/88 34% (well below league average)

t's funny that even before checking those stats, I figured LeBron to be a clutch beast. Last second shots, 5 minutes, whole quarter, doesn't matter...
Huge LOL @ 'Kobe Bean... HE THRIVES IN THE CLUTCH DOE' turning out dead last in these categories. Why am I not surprised?

kuniva_dAMiGhTy
06-29-2015, 10:47 AM
^Wait, shots to tie or take the lead? What would be the point of a 5 margin under that criteria?

Correct your lists, and maybe I'll take you seriously. Godspeed young foreigner. :cheers:

Magic 32
06-29-2015, 11:05 AM
agreed, going down the wire all these things are essential...

http://i.gyazo.com/977fb008956aa2ceec463b9199917d7e.png

LeBron James is 43/96 45% (great)

http://i.gyazo.com/7b8fdd70fe33284e5b2ff46bb6c43e0a.png

Kobe Bryant is 30/88 34% (well below league average)

t's funny that even before checking those stats, I figured LeBron to be a clutch beast. Last second shots, 5 minutes, whole quarter, doesn't matter...
Huge LOL @ 'Kobe Bean... HE THRIVES IN THE CLUTCH DOE' turning out dead last in these categories. Why am I not surprised?


I love the east hehe - Chris Bosh in 2013

And don't forget the shameless statspadding.

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 11:21 AM
^Wait, shots to tie or take the lead? What would be the point of a 5 margin under that criteria?

Correct your lists, and maybe I'll take you seriously. Godspeed young foreigner. :cheers:

be honest, I got you :oldlol: :cheers: per usual

http://i.gyazo.com/caaca88879a84c9e611507886ca8bdea.png

LeBron James is 108 of 253 43% (above league average)

http://i.gyazo.com/0a1ac62b0294836836c34a703b02541f.png

Kobe Bryant is 88 of 238 37% (way below league average)

you just applauded someone clutch for no reason, padawan.

Why am I not surprised at you being this off?

don't make me do this to you again, native.

sundizz
06-29-2015, 11:24 AM
Arbitrary Water is right - Lebron James in general has been a pretty good clutch performer. I agree with that. That is why it annoys me that people think this last season of his was somehow "great or amazing". It sucked. He was quite awful I thought by the eye test (and the numbers also show it).

If you look at Bron in comparison to Kobe and Wade (his only true competition in this era/data available) he has done far better when the conditions are:

5 minutes left or less
4th quarter or OT
shot to tie or take the lead

However, that is why I posted those advanced stats. They take into account all game events (not just shots). Being clutch is way different than simply making shots. For example, I was watching a Kobe vs. Durant video the other day of the 2010 G6 closing game. Kobe was the one that got a huge huge defensive rebound in traffic to give them the chance to win the game and close out the series.

These stats aren't the end all be all. There is stuff like "confidence" that is a real thing. Anyone that plays ball knows. It is hard to say, without being on the floor with these players, which one makes you confident in the ability to win a basketball game.

Out of all bball games I've seen in the playoffs, to this day, Bron's 48 point explosion was the greatest thing I've seen. However, from continued watching I always felt the pure confidence Kobe had inspired teammates a little bit better than the way Bron acts. I truly believe that is what made Pau great - he had all the tools, but was too much in his head (like most smart people). Kobe gave him that I don't give an eff attitude to become a champ. He did the same with scrubs like Kwame Brown, Jordan Farmar, Smush Parker, Lamar Odom, etc.

kuniva_dAMiGhTy
06-29-2015, 11:26 AM
LeBron clutch gawd blah blah

If you had basic comprehension skills, you would have used OP's criteria to begin with, and not "shots to take the lead" or mere FG's to gauge impact.

What I "applauded" were Kobe, Dirk and MJ's percentages of impact estimated. What I laughed at were LeBron's figures in 2015...again not FG's made or attempted, or his stats from 2004-2014.

Do I need to put you in timeout again, Arby?

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 11:26 AM
Being clutch actually is ALOT about making shots... whatever isolated events you're talking about (a rebound? really?) it doesn't bridge the gap of the facual events, I want you to admit that... hell, its not just about making shots? In 2013 LeBron averaged a damn triple double per 48 minutes in the clutch...

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 11:28 AM
If you had basic comprehension skills, you would have used OP's criteria to begin with, and not "shots to take the lead" or mere FG's to gauge impact.

What I applauded were Kobe, Dirk and MJ's percentages of impact estimated...again not FG's made or attempted.

Do I need to put you in timeout again, Arby?

I honestly thought you'd have enough pride to accept that L... this isn't about OP's criteria, this is about the criteria that makes sense... the traditional ones I posted. How do you dig his criteria, at the same time dislike stuff like win-shares or not because it does the same things (account for team performance), then ask me to do just what you wanted, and really respond with this.... for an adult this is quite immature.

Hey, I didn't invent those stats, you're trying to shoot the messenger.

kuniva_dAMiGhTy
06-29-2015, 11:31 AM
I honestly thought you'd have enough pride to accept that L... this isn't about OP's criteria, this is about the criteria that makes sense... the traditional ones I posted. How do you dig his criteria, at the same time dislike stuff like win-shares or not because it does the same things (account for team performance), then ask me to do just what you wanted, and really respond with this.... for an adult this is quite immature.

Hey, I didn't invent those stats, you're trying to shoot the messenger.

But I had to correct you, and make you post another chart.

There's no second chances in this. You had your shot...and came up short. Sort of like LeBron's 2/6 campaign. :oldlol:

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 11:32 AM
No matter the amount of factual and appropriate data, I can't change your beliefs :cheers: You have your mind set on this and won't back off of that thought. Maybe next time.

Magic 32
06-29-2015, 11:34 AM
I honestly thought you'd have enough pride to accept that L

I think we had all hoped for this.

But Lebron stans only took a week off and then started to waste another summer.

Sad really.

kuniva_dAMiGhTy
06-29-2015, 11:34 AM
I'm glad that you admitted you used your own criteria...after seeing OP expose LeBron's horrid 2015 season.

It was a good effort, Martin. Really it was. :cheers:

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 11:39 AM
How many times are you gonna try to end this convo? You ain't folling no one with this 'calm and collected doe' attitude.. I have you on such a string that you spent so much thought into your post that you posted this

http://i.gyazo.com/25caacdbff507e3f14a75ab2fefa4572.png

put the Martin in there, and then backtrack 2 minutes afterwards and edit it for a 2nd time :oldlol:

kuniva_dAMiGhTy
06-29-2015, 11:43 AM
How many times are you gonna try to end this convo? You ain't folling no one with this 'calm and collected doe' attitude.. I have you on such a string that you spent so much thought into your post that you posted this

http://i.gyazo.com/25caacdbff507e3f14a75ab2fefa4572.png

put the Martin in there, and then backtrack 2 minutes afterwards and edit it for a 2nd time :oldlol:

Aww martin took a screen cap of my double post. Hang it up on your wall somewhere. You deserved it.

BTW, impact estimated =/= field goals made and attempted

I hope that you can discern the difference in the future :cheers:

sundizz
06-29-2015, 11:43 AM
I honestly thought you'd have enough pride to accept that L... this isn't about OP's criteria, this is about the criteria that makes sense... the traditional ones I posted. How do you dig his criteria, at the same time dislike stuff like win-shares or not because it does the same things (account for team performance), then ask me to do just what you wanted, and really respond with this.... for an adult this is quite immature.

Hey, I didn't invent those stats, you're trying to shoot the messenger.

You are looking at these stats in a vacuum though.

Why do we not take into account that for the criteria you used (+-5, 4th quarter, 5 mins) that Lebron James was assisted on 23% (25/108) of his shots while Kobe was only assisted on 14% (13/91) of the makes??

There is so much more to what goes in a basketball game. You must must must realize that after watching these last playoffs that teams truly are not that afraid of a Lebron James jump shot. He very likely took much easier shots because of the sort of coverage that he faces. Teams dare him to shoot the jumper in big moments. It's not a knock of his efficiency in making it, but to compare them without context doesn't make any sort of sense.

If this is how we are going to compare players why not use Ray Allen. He gets to have superstars/perpetrators do the work of attracting defenders and he gets a clean look at a shot. Does that necessarily make him more clutch than these guys/better? No, it means that he is played differently, and is taking advantage when he can. If he had to play the superstar role and have that sort of coverage his ability would drop a lot.

That is why it is important to use data that takes into account more than just the shot. Clutch is not just making a shot. If Pau Gasol gets an offensive rebound and easy put back because Kobe gets doubled on a 13 foot fadeaway there is no statistic for it, but we all know what happened there. Same with TT - he is better cuz of the attention Bron gets. Data that tries to capsulate all those sort of tangential events gives us a clearer picture.

branslowski
06-29-2015, 11:47 AM
:bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: Kobe been Clutch...Ice Water in the Veins is what Doug Collins, Kerr, Bird, and all the Legends and commentators
say. I didn't really even need Ops Facts to know this...Eye Ball Test

By the Way, Kobe has the Most Game-Winners All-Time aswell:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnHyhCYOgTI

All 36 Game-Winners, straight up Clutch God:bowdown: :bowdown:

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 11:49 AM
You are looking at these stats in a vacuum though.

Why do we not take into account that for the criteria you used (+-5, 4th quarter, 5 mins) that Lebron James was assisted on 23% (25/108) of his shots while Kobe was only assisted on 14% (13/91) of the makes??

There is so much more to what goes in a basketball game. You must must must realize that after watching these last playoffs that teams truly are not that afraid of a Lebron James jump shot. He very likely took much easier shots because of the sort of coverage that he faces. Teams dare him to shoot the jumper in big moments. It's not a knock of his efficiency in making it, but to compare them without context doesn't make any sort of sense.

If this is how we are going to compare players why not use Ray Allen. He gets to have superstars/perpetrators do the work of attracting defenders and he gets a clean look at a shot. Does that necessarily make him more clutch than these guys/better? No, it means that he is played differently, and is taking advantage when he can. If he had to play the superstar role and have that sort of coverage his ability would drop a lot.

That is why it is important to use data that takes into account more than just the shot. Clutch is not just making a shot. If Pau Gasol gets an offensive rebound and easy put back because Kobe gets doubled on a 13 foot fadeaway there is no statistic for it, but we all know what happened there. Same with TT - he is better cuz of the attention Bron gets. Data that tries to capsulate all those sort of tangential events gives us a clearer picture.

no doubt.. lets not act like your stats are any more indicative of whats truly happening out there...

Kobe absolutely bails defenses out... you're smart enough to see this. Its his trigger happy attitude that makes it easier to shut him down, as defenses can prepare for whats coming. Thats also the biggest difference between Kobe and MJ, Kobe dances and puts these flashy moves, but the defender isnt going anywhere, ends up right in his grill on the shot.. where as MJ does one little subtle shake and bam, he has himself a shot. He can go to this in the clutch alot more frequently...
where as LeBron quite obviously sticks out as almost an exception, when we compare last second shots its very rare for an Individual, where the opponent KNOWS he's gonna shoot it, can end up with a shot as often as he can and HAS in the past... thats his advantage, the other one is his passing, threat out of double teams.

If you take a look at the Cavaliers' clutch stats from 2009 and 2010, even the Miami ones, LeBron has had those teams at the top of 4th quarter ranks for 6 straight seasons (2009-2014), thats elite.

Take from that what we know, and whatever you're trying to add here for Kobe, with "instilling attitude into his teammates"..

Appreciating the conversation though, rare these days on ISH :cheers:

Magic 32
06-29-2015, 11:50 AM
http://cdn.makeagif.com/media/6-29-2015/ARt4aU.gif
http://cdn.makeagif.com/media/6-29-2015/Wmj9io.gif

http://s8.postimg.org/3yppayxbp/ghyfdgfgd.jpg

3ball
06-29-2015, 11:51 AM
MJ all day

3ball
06-29-2015, 11:52 AM
http://cdn.makeagif.com/media/6-25-2015/0X7oDr.gif


This is from 1988, during a Bulls-Rockets game.

MJ scored 46% of the Bulls' 4th quarter points in 1988.. :confusedshrug:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiBQ05cXt04&t=0m21s
.

DMAVS41
06-29-2015, 11:53 AM
As much as I love any metric that has Dirk at the top. I don't think net rating is great here. It's fine, but that more just shows how the team performed in those circumstances.

Dirk benefits here greatly by having Terry be so great in the clutch as well...and greatly benefits by Kidd/Marion/Tyson playing great defense down the stretch as well.

It would take a long time, but I'd like to see the averages and TS% and USG% per 100 possessions of clutch time (5 minutes left in 4th/OT...score between 5 points).

I'll do Dirk in 11 real quick: (clutch time averages per 100 possessions in the playoffs)

68 points / 11 rebounds / 3 assists....78% TS 41% USG

Shit, never mind....I forgot how otherworldly that actually was....:bowdown:

tpols
06-29-2015, 11:56 AM
Very interesting on the net rating stat.. Goes to show that raw stats are very misleading when there's heavy ball dominance disparities between players.

That's why dirks the best.. he let's everyone do their thing while simultaneously killing it individually.

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 11:56 AM
As much as I love any metric that has Dirk at the top. I don't think net rating is great here. It's fine, but that more just shows how the team performed in those circumstances.

Dirk benefits here greatly by having Terry be so great in the clutch as well...and greatly benefits by Kidd/Marion/Tyson playing great defense down the stretch as well.

It would take a long time, but I'd like to see the averages and TS% and USG% per 100 possessions of clutch time (5 minutes left in 4th/OT...score between 5 points).

I'll do Dirk in 11 real quick: (clutch time averages per 100 possessions in the playoffs)

68 points / 11 rebounds / 3 assists....78% TS 41% USG

Shit, never mind....I forgot how otherworldly that actually was....:bowdown:

Thats the man they called choker for half a decade :rolleyes: American Sports Media is dumbed down hard... ESPN makes it simple for the sheep that eat their BS up. All about rangz.

Dirk is very realistically one of the clutchest players ever.

riseagainst
06-29-2015, 11:57 AM
Dirk

:bowdown:

branslowski
06-29-2015, 12:00 PM
no doubt.. lets not act like your stats are any more indicative of whats truly happening out there...

Kobe absolutely bails defenses out... you're smart enough to see this. Its his trigger happy attitude that makes it easier to shut him down, as defenses can prepare for whats coming. Thats also the biggest difference between Kobe and MJ, Kobe dances and puts these flashy moves, but the defender isnt going anywhere, ends up right in his grill on the shot.. where as MJ does one little subtle shake and bam, he has himself a shot. He can go to this in the clutch alot more frequently...
where as LeBron quite obviously sticks out as almost an exception, when we compare last second shots its very rare for an Individual, where the opponent KNOWS he's gonna shoot it, can end up with a shot as often as he can and HAS in the past... thats his advantage, the other one is his passing, threat out of double teams.

If you take a look at the Cavaliers' clutch stats from 2009 and 2010, even the Miami ones, LeBron has had those teams at the top of 4th quarter ranks for 6 straight seasons (2009-2014), thats elite.

Take from that what we know, and whatever you're trying to add here for Kobe, with "instilling attitude into his teammates"..

Appreciating the conversation though, rare these days on ISH :cheers:

When did you start watching Basketball? Because I already realized you never actually WATCHED Kobe and Shaq's playoff runs with Kobe balling his life out vs Kings, Spurs, Mavs, Portland exc...I know you never even seen his 48pt 16reb games during those 3 peats just in the way you talk and try to sum a game up solely using boxscores....But were you even watching the NBA when Kobe was in his scoring prime?? When he had 9 straight 40pt games just rapin the league? That should would have ESPN trippin these days...Or when he dropped 50pts in 4 straight games? Twitter would have been calling him the Greatest...How bout when he dropped 62pts thru 3 quarters vs Dirk's WCF team Mavs? You think they felt like it was "easy" to shut him down??

I know you troll alot here on these sites and its cool with me, I understand it, you hate Kobe's fans and LeBron just took a L this summer so I know you have to do damage control, but do you honestly watch games? Do you understand the bullsh!t that comes out of your face and infects your Keyboard?

kuniva_dAMiGhTy
06-29-2015, 12:00 PM
Very interesting on the net rating stat.. Goes to show that raw stats are very misleading when there's heavy ball dominance disparities between players.

That's why dirks the best.. he let's everyone do their thing while simultaneously killing it individually.

I'm saying...

New era fans that just got into the game REALLY need to get with this impact estimated stuff. FGs made and attempted without showing how they're getting baskets (are they assisted? what kind of pressure are they putting on defenses?) while ignoring all the other stuff that goes into a game...is dated.

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 12:04 PM
When did you start watching Basketball? Because I already realized you never actually WATCHED Kobe and Shaq's playoff runs with Kobe balling his life out vs Kings, Spurs, Mavs, Portland exc...I know you never even seen his 48pt 16reb games during those 3 peats just in the way you talk and try to sum a game up solely using boxscores....But were you even watching the NBA when Kobe was in his scoring prime?? When he had 9 straight 40pt games just rapin the league? That should would have ESPN trippin these days...Or when he dropped 50pts in 4 straight games? Twitter would have been calling him the Greatest...How bout when he dropped 62pts thru 3 quarters vs Dirk's WCF team Mavs? You think they felt like it was "easy" to shut him down??

I know you troll alot here on these sites and its cool with me, I understand it, you hate Kobe's fans and LeBron just took a L this summer so I know you have to do damage control, but do you honestly watch games? Do you understand the bullsh!t that comes out of your face and infects your Keyboard?

The shit that gets posted on here and you yap and start an essay about Kobe having a trigger happy attitude, like this is actually refutable? :roll:

Go find something else to fantasize and go back 10+ years in time for Kobe's 40 pt streak and what not.. this feels like MJ fans having nothing left but history and Space Jam to talk about.

DMAVS41
06-29-2015, 12:06 PM
Very interesting on the net rating stat.. Goes to show that raw stats are very misleading when there's heavy ball dominance disparities between players.

That's why dirks the best.. he let's everyone do their thing while simultaneously killing it individually.

That works great if your teammates step up and play great as well though.

Like I said above, I'm all for praising Dirk as you know, but that net rating has a ton to do with Terry, Kidd, Marion, and Chandler....especially the defensive stuff.

Dirk was amazing, but he also was allowed to be amazing because his teammates were so great as well.

Can't separate the two much here on net rating. So intertwined.

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 12:08 PM
That works great if your teammates step up and play great as well though.

Like I said above, I'm all for praising Dirk as you know, but that net rating has a ton to do with Terry, Kidd, Marion, and Chandler....especially the defensive stuff.

Dirk was amazing, but he also was allowed to be amazing because his teammates were so great as well.

Can't separate the two much here on net rating. So intertwined.

yea, alot of those team stats are circumstantial... Dirk's individual ones do the job just fine illustrating how amazing he was.. anything else was out of his hands (he obviously did a great job comforting those teammates, not sure how many guys have his leadership besides the MJ/TD/LJ group).

branslowski
06-29-2015, 12:14 PM
The shit that gets posted on here and you yap and start an essay about Kobe having a trigger happy attitude, like this is actually refutable? :roll:

Go find something else to fantasize and go back 10+ years in time for Kobe's 40 pt streak and what not.. this feels like MJ fans having nothing left but history and Space Jam to talk about.

Thanks for answering my question...You obviously didn't even watch Kobe during his prime..Thus you missed a sh!t load of clutchness and epic scoring games that would have you piss yourself....Imagine Bron scoring 50 in 4 straight games? U'd lose your sh!t...

But at the end of the day, knowing you never watched any of Kobe/Shaq run yet comment on it is like a virgin tellin me the bad b!tch next door got some stink loose pusse yet he never hit it...What he don't know is that I hit it, and that pusse was tight and smelt like Summer Breeze Tropical Berry.

That's the last time I will respond with truth and facts to you though, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt...But just like other new school Bron stans you didn't even watch Kobe at his scoring best...such a shame...."Easier to shut him down":facepalm

Indian guy
06-29-2015, 12:14 PM
ArbitraryWater straight up owning folks here.

Honestly, Kobe fans are better off talking about fadeawayz, alphaness and mean looks than numbers when it comes to LeBron. Their boy is simply not winning any battles against him if we're talking statistics. Be it last 5 minutes, last 2 minutes, last shots, +/- in crunch time, LeBron's always been better.

kuniva_dAMiGhTy
06-29-2015, 12:15 PM
:bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: Kobe been Clutch...Ice Water in the Veins is what Doug Collins, Kerr, Bird, and all the Legends and commentators
say. I didn't really even need Ops Facts to know this...Eye Ball Test

By the Way, Kobe has the Most Game-Winners All-Time aswell:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnHyhCYOgTI

All 36 Game-Winners, straight up Clutch God:bowdown: :bowdown:

Kobe, MJ and Dirk... 3 of the clutches players in the modern era. :applause:

You might want to throw Steph in that mix too. Unlike LeBron, he actually closed 4th quarters in this last finals.

catch24
06-29-2015, 12:19 PM
Kobe with 2 of performances his in the top 10. Greatness man, appreciate it.

I also knew Dirk was clutch, but some of these numbers are staggering. Dude looking like peak Bird over here. :oldlol:

branslowski
06-29-2015, 12:19 PM
ArbitraryWater straight up owning folks here.

Honestly, Kobe fans are better off talking about fadeawayz, alphaness and mean looks than numbers when it comes to LeBron. Their boy is simply not winning any battles against him if we're talking statistics. Be it last 5 minutes, last 2 minutes, last shots, +/- in crunch time, LeBron's always been better.

A LeBron stan saying another LeBron stan owning cause they both butthurt over LeBron's empty stats that leads to another Finals L, how cute... 2/6:roll: :roll:

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 12:21 PM
A LeBron stan saying another LeBron stan owning cause they both butthurt over LeBron's empty stats that leads to another Finals L, how cute... 2/6:roll: :roll:

2 of 6 doe, meanwhile godbe 5 of 7 points, 81 ringz :bowdown:

riseagainst
06-29-2015, 12:22 PM
2 of 6 doe, meanwhile godbe 5 of 7 points, 81 ringz :bowdown:

:bowdown:

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 12:23 PM
ArbitraryWater straight up owning folks here.

Honestly, Kobe fans are better off talking about fadeawayz, alphaness and mean looks than numbers when it comes to LeBron. Their boy is simply not winning any battles against him if we're talking statistics. Be it last 5 minutes, last 2 minutes, last shots, +/- in crunch time, LeBron's always been better.

http://i1383.photobucket.com/albums/ah306/MaleRuler/Basketball/Kobe%20Bryant/120115-kobe-590_zpsdc8mzj2u.jpg (http://s1383.photobucket.com/user/MaleRuler/media/Basketball/Kobe%20Bryant/120115-kobe-590_zpsdc8mzj2u.jpg.html)

MAMBAA! Intimidating AS ****.. this is what it means to INSTILL a winning attitude into your teammates, and straight FEAR into your opponents.. :bowdown:

catch24
06-29-2015, 12:23 PM
^Wait, shots to tie or take the lead? What would be the point of a 5 margin under that criteria?

Correct your lists, and maybe I'll take you seriously. Godspeed young foreigner. :cheers:

You destroyed that clown. :oldlol:

branslowski
06-29-2015, 12:24 PM
http://i1383.photobucket.com/albums/ah306/MaleRuler/Basketball/Kobe%20Bryant/120115-kobe-590_zpsdc8mzj2u.jpg (http://s1383.photobucket.com/user/MaleRuler/media/Basketball/Kobe%20Bryant/120115-kobe-590_zpsdc8mzj2u.jpg.html)

MAMBAA! Intimidating AS ****.. this is what it means to INSTILL a winning attitude into your teammates, and straight FEAR into your opponents.. :bowdown:

http://i.imgur.com/ZZKU24N.jpg

:oldlol:

kuniva_dAMiGhTy
06-29-2015, 12:29 PM
You destroyed that clown. :oldlol:

It's not very hard tbf. Little Arby has had a plethora of self ethers on ISH.

That one where he got caught stealing posts from another user was absolute GOLD. :oldlol:

branslowski
06-29-2015, 12:30 PM
It's not very hard tbf. Little Arby's had a plethora of self ethers on ISH.

That one where he was caught stealing posts from another user was absolute GOLD. :oldlol:

:biggums:

ArbitraryWater
06-29-2015, 12:31 PM
Mighty and catch24 going full tag team on us like

http://i.gyazo.com/63adf31fe5310e1537947b3dfe92cae8.png



branslowski trna join in


http://i.gyazo.com/c4f1f567ee2f404e1bb878de7d9248a8.png

branslowski
06-29-2015, 12:34 PM
Mighty and catch24 going full tag team on us like

http://i.gyazo.com/63adf31fe5310e1537947b3dfe92cae8.png



branslowski trna join in


http://i.gyazo.com/c4f1f567ee2f404e1bb878de7d9248a8.png

:facepalm Just quit bro, you takin L's Like LeBron did....Picture rated 2/6

PHILA
06-29-2015, 12:39 PM
Jordan
http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=322375

-In his entire playoff career during "crunch time", Jordan was converting at a rate of 62.5% TS and 52.0% FG on enormous volume (37.5 FGA/48). Though he did drop off a bit in 1998.

-At his peak from 1990-92 those figures increase to 70.7% TS and 62.2% FG on even higher volume (39.8 FGA/48).

This game below is a perfect example. Everything is going to the basket.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMLpMAFNpo4&t=3m39s


From 1985-1998 in the playoffs, his playoff scoring rate from "non-crunch time" to "crunch time" increased by 1.64 (At his 1990-92 peak it nearly doubles).

His FG% increases from 48.4% to 52.0%, while TS% goes from 56.2% to 62.5% (At 1990-92 peak his FG% goes up by 11.9%, while TS% goes up by 13.1%.

His steals rate also increase by 1.7 (At 1990-92 peak this more than doubles)

3ball
06-29-2015, 12:40 PM
http://cdn.makeagif.com/media/6-25-2015/0X7oDr.gif


This is from 1988, during a Bulls-Rockets game.

^^^^^ It says that MJ scored 46% of the Bulls' 4th quarter points in 1988

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiBQ05cXt04&t=0m21s
.

I guess this is why they called MJ's supporting cast the "Jordanaires" (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=367912).
.

Riley Martin
06-29-2015, 12:41 PM
http://i.imgur.com/ZZKU24N.jpg

:oldlol:

Honestly, 2-4 sounds a lot better than 2/6. LeBron fans should report it as W-L like that.

sd3035
06-29-2015, 12:42 PM
http://i.imgur.com/ZZKU24N.jpg

:oldlol:


That pic says it all, no wonder Bran wasn't allowed to stand with the others

coast2coast
06-29-2015, 01:01 PM
I never understood why people thought that LeBron, the NBA LEADER in PPG in elimination games, is not clutch.