dirks decline

[pastis]

look at this footage, 2012,2013,2014

2012: vs Sixers and nuggets
very mobile, agile, fast, many ridiculous fadeaways, many isos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XophjoKuCEo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdK54XEt0AU

2013: vs Bulls
15-17 from the field, game winning 3, still mobile in the post, sick fadeaways, many isos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aSVqETWn80

2014: vs okc
ridiculed KD, slower than 2013, but still fast turn around, many isos and fadeaway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrG_Q2keK1U

2014 vs portland:
ridiculed LMA, still good turn around, many isos and ridiculous tough fadeaways

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1vFSGwGDm0

damn. this year he looked like he got 15 years older in comparison to 2014.
is this normal? he now looks so tired and exhausted on the field, especially he seems to have problems jumping high on his jumpshot.

Cuban failed to give dirk a competitive team from 2011-2013. he still had some gas then. now its over

[Locked_Up_Tonight]

Could you have not put that in the fadeaway thread? Dirk has said himself the last two years that he just can't be the guy he was 3 years ago. Dirk is brutally honest.

[JimmyMcAdocious]

Look at a lot of the other bigs and around 34-35 is when they hit that big man wall. Some guys a little more graceful than others, though not like Dirk is a complete scrub now.

[Locked_Up_Tonight]

Look at a lot of the other bigs and around 34-35 is when they hit that big man wall. Some guys a little more graceful than others, though not like Dirk is a complete scrub now.

It isn't his age but the number of years. This year it will be his 18th year. And before anyone tells me about Duncan.... Duncan has averaged over 30 minutes a game one time in the last 5 years... with that season averaging 30.1.... Dirk averaged at least 30+ in 4 out of the last 5 years with theone below 30 was 29.6 MPG.

Dirk has had to play a lot more minutes than Duncan, especially as he has gotten older. Duncan has pretty much had it relatively **easy** compared to other big men in terms of minutes.

[T_L_P]

It isn't his age but the number of years. This year it will be his 18th year. And before anyone tells me about Duncan.... Duncan has averaged over 30 minutes a game one time in the last 5 years... with that season averaging 30.1.... Dirk averaged at least 30+ in 4 out of the last 5 years with theone below 30 was 29.6 MPG.

Dirk has had to play a lot more minutes than Duncan, especially as he has gotten older. Duncan has pretty much had it relatively **easy** compared to other big men in terms of minutes.

Over the past four seasons, Dirk has played a total of 9248 minutes.

Over that same span, Duncan has played 10297.

And if we compare them by ages, Duncan from 33-35 (2010-12) played 7276 minutes.

From 33-35 (2012-14, didn't include last season because that was the one where he declined), Dirk played 6785 minutes.

Overall in their careers, Dirk has played 50160 minutes. Duncan has played 54984; the difference is the equivalent of 100 NBA games.

This isn't about minutes. Dirk is having a typical decline. Duncan had it too in 2011. At this point, however, Tim's just a freak of nature in a way that Dirk isn't.

[pastis]

Duncan never carried a team on the offense like dirk did. and im not talking about pure ppg numbers. im talking about the isos, the tough fadeaways, the ridiculous tough shots and the exhausting way dirk has to escape from defense for just touching the ball. if a duncan homer cant accept that - his problem. im def. not a duncan hater. but watch these kind of highlights. and compare. this is it. show duncan highlights where he carried a franchise like dirk did still in 2012-2014. wanna compare the footage. who hast to work more for his shot. dirk carried his franchise on offense since the beginning, Duncan could slowly accept his limited offensive role after 2005, at latest after 2007
so duncan is absolutly no comparison for aging.

more bryant.

yes i know what dirk said before this season. i know that he said he couldnt carry the offen anymore like he did, isos are to exhausting etc.
but i was just wondering the comparison from e.g. 2013 to 2014 and 2014 to 2015. in my opinon he aged like 15 years between 2014 and 2015

edit: TLP, how many, olympic games, EUro-Cups or World Cups DUncan played during his summer break?

[Locked_Up_Tonight]

Overall in their careers, Dirk has played 50160 minutes. Duncan has played 54984; the difference is the equivalent of 100 NBA games.


If you are going to include Playoff minutes then you might as well include International minutes as well. Dirk adding that number of minutes (2400+)and he will be right there with Duncan in terms of minutes. Duncan hasn't played international ball since 04. And Dirk is supposed to play in Eurobasket this year.

Dirk being a2 years younger and playing the same number of minutes is a lot more mileage. Especially when you consider Dirk (last year) was the first time Dirk hasn't been the number 1 option on offense. Duncan hasn't been the number 1 on offense since 06. 10 years.

[T_L_P]

Duncan never carried a team on the offense like dirk did. and im not talking about pure ppg numbers. im talking about the isos, the tough fadeaways, the ridiculous tough shots and the exhausting way dirk has to escape from defense for just touching the ball. if a duncan homer cant accept that - his problem. im def. not a duncan hater. but watch these kind of highlights. and compare. this is it. show duncan highlights where he carried a franchise like dirk did still in 2012-2014. wanna compare the footage. who hast to work more for his shot. dirk carried his franchise on offense since the beginning, Duncan could slowly accept his limited offensive role after 2005, at latest after 2007
so duncan is absolutly no comparison for aging.

more bryant.

yes i know what dirk said before this season. i know that he said he couldnt carry the offen anymore like he did, isos are to exhausting etc.
but i was just wondering the comparison from e.g. 2013 to 2014 and 2014 to 2015. in my opinon he aged like 15 years between 2014 and 2015

edit: TLP, how many, olympic games, EUro-Cups or World Cups DUncan played during his summer break?

You do realise that the 03 Spurs probably relied on isolating one player to win a championship more than any team ever has, right?

Also, play-style is a pretty terrible argument. Duncan, as a post player, had to bang with some of the biggest and strongest guys in the league. Before he shed off the weight to preserve his knees, he was playing at almost 270 lbs in order to get post position. Playing at that kind of weight is a killer on your body, just as shooting fadeaways are.

Sure, Dirk had to do it for longer, but Duncan also had to keep moving on defense for almost twenty years. The Mavericks have had to spend money on defensive bodies to put around Dirk when they could have used that money on another offensive option, had he been better on that end of the floor.

It's is what it is. Dirk has had to carry a larger offensive load, of course. However, he's the one who decided to make things harder on his body with his style of play. If someone can make the game easier for themselves with the way they play, all the better. Duncan has done that throughout his career by adapting. When he started out, he was a lean, agile athlete who had a ton of moves. Then when he tore his meniscus (end of 2000 season), he gained strength and worked on his passing. He became a foul-creating machine with superior IQ and positioning. He kept putting on weight in the late 2000s so he could transition into a more natural Center, which made pairing him with bigs easier for the Spurs. Then he lost all the weight to preserve his body.

Like I said, there is nothing wrong with Dirk declining. Almost everyone does at his age. Shit, Duncan looked done at 34. The reason he bounced back is because he lost a lot of weight and because he didn't need to rely on his body to play well. Dirk does to an extent, and with his deteriorating body comes his deteriorating play. I trust him to adapt his game because he's one of the greatest players to ever live. :confusedshrug:

[pastis]

Duncan should have worked on his FT. If he would have Dirks FT% Number, Duncan would make bam bam bam

i have game 1 2003 in my mind. dirk blocks duncan from behind. duncan dont make his freethrow and dirk later make the clutch ones. yea i know who won the series and the chip....but that example came to my mind X)

edit: yea about the weight and the basketball IQ of Duncan your absolutly right. but i dont think dirk is getting fatter, yea ok he has not the abs or whatever anymore...but lool at Parker. did you see parkers fat paunch? wonder why pop doesnt intervene

[TheMarkMadsen]

Over the past four seasons, Dirk has played a total of 9248 minutes.

Over that same span, Duncan has played 10297.

And if we compare them by ages, Duncan from 33-35 (2010-12) played 7276 minutes.

From 33-35 (2012-14, didn't include last season because that was the one where he declined), Dirk played 6785 minutes.
Overall in their careers, Dirk has played 50160 minutes. Duncan has played 54984; the difference is the equivalent of 100 NBA games.

This isn't about minutes. Dirk is having a typical decline. Duncan had it too in 2011. At this point, however, Tim's just a freak of nature in a way that Dirk isn't.

and during this time Dirk was winning FMVP while Duncan was a role player averaging 13 points per game and getting bounced in the opening round of the playoffs

from 2010-2014 Dirk was on an entirely different level than Duncan.. there's obviously more wear and tear on a guy who was the first option and shouldering the offense (Dirk) than the role player averaging 15 ppg (Duncan)..

Duncan hasn't averaged 20ppg since 07..

Since the last time Duncan won a FMVP Dirk has won a FMVP, MVP, and been the better player offensively by a large margin

congrats that Duncan was able to chill out and get carried to 60 win seasons while putting up serge ibaka numbers..

Dirk hasn't been lucky enough to play on incredibly stacked teams with the GOAT coach every year since he exited his prime like Duncan has..

[Locked_Up_Tonight]

You do realise that the 03 Spurs probably relied on isolating one player to win a championship more than any team ever has, right?

Also, play-style is a pretty terrible argument. Duncan, as a post player, had to bang with some of the biggest and strongest guys in the league. Before he shed off the weight to preserve his knees, he was playing at almost 270 lbs in order to get post position. Playing at that kind of weight is a killer on your body, just as shooting fadeaways are.

Sure, Dirk had to do it for longer, but Duncan also had to keep moving on defense for almost twenty years. The Mavericks have had to spend money on defensive bodies to put around Dirk when they could have used that money on another offensive option, had he been better on that end of the floor.

It's is what it is. Dirk has had to carry a larger offensive load, of course. However, he's the one who decided to make things harder on his body with his style of play. If someone can make the game easier for themselves with the way they play, all the better. Duncan has done that throughout his career by adapting. When he started out, he was a lean, agile athlete who had a ton of moves. Then when he tore his meniscus (end of 2000 season), he gained strength and worked on his passing. He became a foul-creating machine with superior IQ and positioning. He kept putting on weight in the late 2000s so he could transition into a more natural Center, which made pairing him with bigs easier for the Spurs. Then he lost all the weight to preserve his body.

Like I said, there is nothing wrong with Dirk declining. Almost everyone does at his age. Shit, Duncan looked done at 34. The reason he bounced back is because he lost a lot of weight and because he didn't need to rely on his body to play well. Dirk does to an extent, and with his deteriorating body comes his deteriorating play. I trust him to adapt his game because he's one of the greatest players to ever live. :confusedshrug:

I agree completely. Duncan could coast in the regular season allowing Parker, Manu, etc to shoulder the load. Dirk hasn't had that option. Dirk up until last year never got "back to backs" off like Pop has done with Duncan for about 3 years now. And even with that, the Spurs would win more times than not without Duncan, as the Mavs can't win at all without Dirk.

Duncan's role is basically like a supervisor for the city. Sure he goes to work, clocks in the same number of hours, but more often than not, he is just "watching others work"....

[TheMarkMadsen]

I agree completely. Duncan could coast in the regular season allowing Parker, Manu, etc to shoulder the load. Dirk hasn't had that option. Dirk up until last year never got "back to backs" off like Pop has done with Duncan for about 3 years now. And even with that, the Spurs would win more times than not without Duncan, as the Mavs can't win at all without Dirk.

Duncan's role is basically like a supervisor for the city. Sure he goes to work, clocks in the same number of hours, but more often than not, he is just "watching others work"....

exactly Duncan hasn't played more than 30 minutes per game since 2010

Dirk had his first season of his career playing under 30 minutes per game last year (minus his rookie year)

huge difference.. Dirk can't average 13ppg and still win 60 games like Duncan can and did because he doesn't have the supporting cast Duncan has

[pastis]

yes


Since the 01 season....Dirk's teams had a negative scoring differential with him on the bench every single year outside of 06 and 15. Only 2 years of his career essentially did Dirk have a team in which he could go to the bench...and not have his team get outscored.

Those exact numbers?

In 06 the Mavs were +.2 points per 100 possessions without Dirk
In 15 the Mavs were +2.2 points per 100 possessions without Dirk

On average, Dirk's help was -3.2 points per 100 possessions with him off the court.

Quick comparison....in Duncan's career? He's had 9 seasons of his career with his bench having a positive scoring differential with him on the bench.

On average, Duncan's help was +1.8 points per 100 possessions with him off the court.

That 5 point difference is enormous.

Duncan, obviously, was/is a better player than Dirk...that isn't my point. It's that help/coaching really does matter. It matters a ton.

[T_L_P]

I agree completely. Duncan could coast in the regular season allowing Parker, Manu, etc to shoulder the load. Dirk hasn't had that option. Dirk up until last year never got "back to backs" off like Pop has done with Duncan for about 3 years now. And even with that, the Spurs would win more times than not without Duncan, as the Mavs can't win at all without Dirk.

Duncan's role is basically like a supervisor for the city. Sure he goes to work, clocks in the same number of hours, but more often than not, he is just "watching others work"....

I find it funny you should say this.

In the 2014 Playoffs, Dirk played worse basketball than Duncan ever has in the postseason, yet his team still managed top push an all-time great Spurs team to 7 games, because his teammates stepped up when he was getting shut down by Tiago Splitter in single coverage.

In the wins Dirk averaged 18/5 on .502 TS%, with his usual piss-poor defense. :bowdown:

His advanced numbers for that series. 13.9 PER, .011 WS/48, -1.9 Box +/-. -7.7 Points Per 100 with him on the floor; +15.1 Points Per 100 with him off it.

When Duncan was a net negative (2011 Playoffs, the only time in his career), his team lost in 6 to the 8th seed.

The Spurs have never done anything in the Playoffs when Duncan has played poor, which is the only thing that matters.

pastis continues to follow this trend with his latest post.

In the Playoffs for his career, the Mavs are a +0.2 with Dirk on the court and a -1.6 with him on the bench (1.8 difference).

In the Playoffs for his career, the Spurs are a +5.4 with Tim on the court and a -1.2 with him on the bench (6.6 difference).

Just another example of Tim living for the Playoffs while you guys talk nothing but Regular Season.

[Locked_Up_Tonight]

I find it funny you should say this.

In the 2014 Playoffs, Dirk played worse basketball than Duncan ever has in the postseason, yet his team still managed top push an all-time great Spurs team to 7 games, because his teammates stepped up when he was getting shut down by Tiago Splitter in single coverage.

In the wins Dirk averaged 18/5 on .502 TS%, with his usual piss-poor defense. :bowdown:

His advanced numbers for that series. 13.9 PER, .011 WS/48, -1.9 Box +/-. -7.7 Points Per 100 with him on the floor; +15.1 Points Per 100 with him off it.

When Duncan was a net negative (2011 Playoffs, the only time in his career), his team lost in 6 to the 8th seed.

The Spurs have never done anything in the Playoffs when Duncan has played poor, which is the only thing that matters.

pastis continues to follow this trend with his latest post.

In the Playoffs for his career, the Mavs are a +0.2 with Dirk on the court and a -1.6 with him on the bench (1.8 difference).

In the Playoffs for his career, the Spurs are a +5.4 with Tim on the court and a -1.2 with him on the bench (6.6 difference).

Just another example of Tim living for the Playoffs while you guys talk nothing but Regular Season.

Easier to live for the playoffs when you don't have to work as hard to try and get to the playoffs. Just like a supervisor.

Go back and look at Dirk's **workload** during that 2014 season after the all star break. He was playing 35 minutes a night, overtimes, etc in March/April just for the Mavs to scrape into the final position in the playoffs. He was he leading scorer at 22 PPG during those last 22 games. He was definitely worn down that year going into the playoffs. The Mavs tried to rest him last year so he would be fresher in the playoffs. He performed better last year. 21/10.

Workload and minutes matter. A LOT.

[DMAVS41]

TLP

Forget the Dirk vs Duncan aspect of this.

Are you actually claiming that Dirk has played with similar help and coaching throughout his career...and specifically post 2011?

I think we all agree Duncan is the superior player and has aged better (Dirk has aged very well...just not Duncan level)

Because the tone of your posts seems to imply that they have had similar help. Is that your stance? Please answer.

Also, on a side note, playoff plus/minus is a bit tricky as stars are on the court for virtually every meaningful moment. Dirk has played something like 41 minutes a game for his career in the playoffs. That limited off time combined with playing the best teams in the league can really skew things. Especially as Dirk plays better in the playoffs than in the regular season...and his teammates play worse.

It's kind of hard to go at Dirk for his playoff play (which it sounds like you are doing) when he's one of the best playoff performers in NBA history...very few guys in history have elevated their game like Dirk has while playing the best teams and playing nearly 41 minutes a game.

But I'm not sure what your post was getting at. The reason Duncan has a positive 5.3 scoring differential in the playoffs when he's on the court is precisely because of three reasons:

1. He's better than Dirk
2. He's had better help than Dirk
3. He's had better coaching than Dirk

It seems to me we all agree on number 1. I'm curious as to if you think 2 and 3 are true.

[T_L_P]

TLP

Forget the Dirk vs Duncan aspect of this.

Are you actually claiming that Dirk has played with similar help and coaching throughout his career...and specifically post 2011?

I think we all agree Duncan is the superior player and has aged better (Dirk has aged very well...just not Duncan level)

Because the tone of your posts seems to imply that they have had similar help. Is that your stance? Please answer.

No, of course not.

There have only been a few years in their careers where Dirk has had more to work with than Duncan (and those were earlier in their careers).

Since drafting Leonard (2011-12), the Spurs have had much more talent than the Mavs. Dirk has done as much as he can with that cast and he's been pretty great.

My point is that his cast is not the main component of his decline. It's just natural age-based regression.

[DMAVS41]

No, of course not.

There have only been a few years in their careers where Dirk has had more to work with than Duncan (and those were earlier in their careers).

Since drafting Leonard (2011-12), the Spurs have had much more talent than the Mavs. Dirk has done as much as he can with that cast and he's been pretty great.

My point is that his cast is not the main component of his decline. It's just natural age-based regression.

Yea. I agree.

I will throw in the caveat that Dirk's workload in his declining years has been much more difficult than Duncan's though...and that has absolutely led to some of his decline.

You brought up the 14 playoffs. I agree with most of your take there, but I feel like you fail to acknowledge how much wear and tear was placed on Dirk just to make the playoffs that year. The Mavs were playing playoff basketball for the last 6 weeks essentially....and while it made them ready (more ready than the Spurs)...it also took a bit too much off Dirk's energy to allow him to compete against an elite team in an optimal way.

I think in a vacuum....a guy like Duncan will always age better than Dirk, but I also think the burden, at least in the regular seasons, going back to 2011 or so....has clearly been much heavier on Dirk.