What are Bernies odds of beating Hillary?

[Lensanity]

I swear everyone I ever talk to hates Hillary with a passion and would vote for her last out of everyone but she continues her dominating lead in the polls, even leading the GOP leader Trump. Bernie Sanders is definitely the internets choice of President but the national media continues to ignore him and act like Hillary winning the Democratic race is a foregone conclusion.

I don't see Bernies momentum slowing down anytime soon and if he gets big enough I don't see why he can't beat Hillary. So my question to ISH is what are the percentage odds of him beating Hillary and what must be done to make it happen?

[UK2K]

I swear everyone I ever talk to hates Hillary with a passion and would vote for her last out of everyone but she continues her dominating lead in the polls, even leading the GOP leader Trump. Bernie Sanders is definitely the internets choice of President but the national media continues to ignore him and act like Hillary winning the Democratic race is a foregone conclusion.

I don't see Bernies momentum slowing down anytime soon and if he gets big enough I don't see why he can't beat Hillary. So my question to ISH is what are the percentage odds of him beating Hillary and what must be done to make it happen?
Because there are enough stupid people in this country that will vote for Hillary because she's a woman and they don't know anybody else.

I'd give Bernie a 28% chance of beating Hillary.

Current odds to win the Democratic Primary:

Clinton 1/7
Sanders 12/1
Biden 15/1

[Dbrog]

Sanders is basically a more successful Ron Paul. His crowd draws are insane but he has 0 chance of beating Hillary. Too much money and name recognition for her. That's the game of politics now. Sad times :(

****ing hate Hillary btw. These noms suck...our country gonna blow for a while.

[DeuceWallaces]

0.0

[rufuspaul]

Even NPR gives him no chance, one pundit saying that there just aren't enough sociology professors out there to vote Bernie in.

If the email scandal continues to gain momentum I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden swoop in and take the nomination.

[UK2K]

Even NPR gives him no chance, one pundit saying that there just aren't enough sociology professors out there to vote Bernie in.

If the email scandal continues to gain momentum I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden swoop in and take the nomination.

I think Hillary is convicted of something sooner rather than later. All the evidence is there, just need to compile it together and slam her.

[longhornfan1234]

0%.


Biden with an Obama endorsement could beat her.

[DukeDelonte13]

Sanders is basically a more successful Ron Paul. His crowd draws are insane but he has 0 chance of beating Hillary. Too much money and name recognition for her. That's the game of politics now. Sad times :(

****ing hate Hillary btw. These noms suck...our country gonna blow for a while.

Dennis Kucinich was more of the democratic Ron Paul, IMO.

[Lensanity]

0%.


Biden with an Obama endorsement could beat her.
Please kill me if this happens

Would much rather have Hillary and I ****ing hate her

[Dbrog]

Dennis Kucinich was more of the democratic Ron Paul, IMO.

Oh definitely haha that guy was pretty fun to watch. I moreso just meant the similarities in online popularity and small but vocal advocates.

Btw, this is looking like a Republican year. Only hope for Democrats is if Trump doesn't get the nom but still runs and splits their voter base.

[DukeDelonte13]

Oh definitely haha that guy was pretty fun to watch. I moreso just meant the similarities in online popularity and small but vocal advocates.

Btw, this is looking like a Republican year. Only hope for Democrats is if Trump doesn't get the nom but still runs and splits their voter base.


I think if trump gets the nomination the dems will easily win. Notice how the dems aren't saying anything about him now? The sh*t that will be dug up on donald is yet to come out. The dems want him to do as well as possible right now. He's already damaging the repubs chances.

I thought for sure this would be the repubs election but Trump is really f*cking sh*t up for them. Even if he doesn't run there are going to be plenty of morons writing his name in.

[Derka]

Should temper this discussion with the caveat that we're still over a year away from primaries. Anyone saying that the way things look now is what will likely hold true a year from now is more than a bit crazy.

[rufuspaul]

Should temper this discussion with the caveat that we're still over a year away from primaries. Anyone saying that the way things look now is what will likely hold true a year from now is more than a bit crazy.


I thought the first primary is in March.

[DeuceWallaces]

Should temper this discussion with the caveat that we're still over a year away from primaries. Anyone saying that the way things look now is what will likely hold true a year from now is more than a bit crazy.

Your timeline is way off.


I thought the first primary is in March.

Iowa is Feb 1st. They were January last time around.

[Derka]

Wow, ultimate Monday morning brain fart :facepalm I'm thinking of the general.

[Lensanity]

Wow, ultimate Monday morning brain fart :facepalm I'm thinking of the general.
Even though it starts in February there is still more than enough time for things to change drastically. Hopefully Hillarys email scandal ****s her hard and Biden decides not to run.

[NumberSix]

I think if trump gets the nomination the dems will easily win. Notice how the dems aren't saying anything about him now? The sh*t that will be dug up on donald is yet to come out. The dems want him to do as well as possible right now. He's already damaging the repubs chances.

I thought for sure this would be the repubs election but Trump is really f*cking sh*t up for them. Even if he doesn't run there are going to be plenty of morons writing his name in.
I actually don't think any dem could beat The Donald. They've dug their own grave. The left has been endlessly ranting about money/corruption in politics. Trump will say to any dem (especially Hillary) that they're bought and paid for by lobbyist/donor money and that they're in someone else's pocket... And it will be true and everyone will know its true. It's a Trump card, if you will.

[Lensanity]

I actually don't think any dem could beat The Donald. They've dug their own grave. The left has been endlessly ranting about money/corruption in politics. Trump will say to any dem (especially Hillary) that they're bought and paid for by lobbyist/donor money and that they're in someone else's pocket... And it will be true and everyone will know its true. It's a Trump card, if you will.
Trump would beat Hillary, Sanders would beat Trump, Hillary will most likely beat Sanders.

[NumberSix]

Trump would beat Hillary, Sanders would beat Trump, Hillary will most likely beat Sanders.
Lol. Sanders ain't beating anybody. Once things start getting serious, the amount of corporate money that will start pouring in... He won't stand a chance. Dude has no shot of winning the democrat nomination.

[Lensanity]

Lol. Sanders ain't beating anybody. Once things start getting serious, the amount of corporate money that will start pouring in... He won't stand a chance. Dude has no shot of winning the democrat nomination.
Yah that's the only problem. Winning the nomination will be extremely difficult but if he somehow does I think he would get elected.

[Dbrog]

Lol. Sanders ain't beating anybody. Once things start getting serious, the amount of corporate money that will start pouring in... He won't stand a chance. Dude has no shot of winning the democrat nomination.

Similarly, I think Trump has no real chance of winning for the simple fact that I don't believe most of America is going to vote for a celebrity president (yes I know Reagan was in movies). Trump is going to get pushed out by his party when push comes to shove because of his extreme rhetoric and views not consistent with his party.

[Lensanity]

Similarly, I think Trump has no real chance of winning for the simple fact that I don't believe most of America is going to vote for a celebrity president (yes I know Reagan was in movies). Trump is going to get pushed out by his party when push comes to shove because of his extreme rhetoric and views not consistent with his party.
Trump voters don't give a shit what party he is associated with. They would still vote for him if he was a Democrat.

[Dbrog]

Trump voters don't give a shit what party he is associated with. They would still vote for him if he was a Democrat.

Exactly my point. Too segmented...
I still find it comical that he's leading the polls :oldlol:
I truly think it's America trolling. There's no way this can be serious.

[NumberSix]

Trump voters don't give a shit what party he is associated with. They would still vote for him if he was a Democrat.
I think there's a legit chance that trump will not be the republican nominee. If he is though, I think he will beat whoever the dems run. I think he will be the first "republican" since Reagan to get a large amount of democrat voters. He's not really restricted to party affiliation.

[Jailblazers7]

You ****ers are crazy if you think Trump wins a general election. Turn off your computers/TVs and go talk to actual people about their opinion of Trump. Only reason people buy into this shit is that the internet/TV has turned into an echo chamber for whatever side you choose to support.

[NumberSix]

You ****ers are crazy if you think Trump wins a general election. Turn off your computers/TVs and go talk to actual people about their opinion of Trump. Only reason people buy into this shit is that the internet/TV has turned into an echo chamber for whatever side you choose to support.
Yeah, people could say that now, but after 6 months of nonstop propaganda, minds change. It's a statistical fact. The public almost always votes for whoever spends the most.

[sundizz]

Bernie needs to go all out with colleges. If he can get the majority of the 18-21 votes in the country it'll go a long way toward his cause. College kids are too apathetic though and a lot of them are psuedo feminists.

[DukeDelonte13]

I think there's a legit chance that trump will not be the republican nominee. If he is though, I think he will beat whoever the dems run. I think he will be the first "republican" since Reagan to get a large amount of democrat voters. He's not really restricted to party affiliation.


Half the republicans won't vote for trump and now democrats are bailing ship to vote for him?

[DeuceWallaces]

Half the republicans won't vote for trump and now democrats are bailing ship to vote for him?

Just let him enjoy his little fantasy.

[NumberSix]

Just let him enjoy his little fantasy.
Lol. It's people like YOU who constantly rant about how money decides elections. All statistics also show that to be the case. Suddenly, that won't be the case? :confusedshrug:

[DeuceWallaces]

Lol. It's people like YOU who constantly rant about how money decides elections. All statistics also show that to be the case. Suddenly, that won't be the case? :confusedshrug:

I've never, ever, made a single comment about campaign finance or its influence on election results.

[NumberSix]

I've never, ever, made a single comment about campaign finance or its influence on election results.
Ok, then my mistake. I assumed that would be your stance, but that's not really fair to make assumptions.

Now that it has come up though, what is your stance?

[DeuceWallaces]

I'm surprised, because you seem to really be into assumptions, misleading research, and fallacies.

[KyrieTheFuture]

I actually don't think any dem could beat The Donald. They've dug their own grave. The left has been endlessly ranting about money/corruption in politics. Trump will say to any dem (especially Hillary) that they're bought and paid for by lobbyist/donor money and that they're in someone else's pocket... And it will be true and everyone will know its true. It's a Trump card, if you will.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-open-to-big-campaign-donors/article/2570698

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/donald-trump-donor-fundraising-2016-121645.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/23/trump-open-to-taking-big-and-small-campaign-contributions/

Hmmmmmm

[bladefd]

Trump will say to any dem (especially Hillary) that they're bought and paid for by lobbyist/donor money and that they're in someone else's pocket... And it will be true and everyone will know its true. It's a Trump card, if you will.

Watch Trump bring up the 'Monica Lewinski' scandal in his debate with Hillary. Damn, that's going to be insane & very awkward if he steeps that low... With Trump, nothing is out of the realm of possibility though :roll: :roll:

[NumberSix]

Watch Trump bring up the 'Monica Lewinski' scandal in his debate with Hillary. Damn, that's going to be insane & very awkward if he steeps that low... With Trump, nothing is out of the realm of possibility though :roll: :roll:
"She's a hero because she got cheated on. I hate to tell you, I like people that don't get cheated on"

[TheMan]

Half the republicans won't vote for trump and now democrats are bailing ship to vote for him?
This

[bladefd]

Am I wrong in thinking that Hillary is not tough enough as president because she needs $2 billion of superPACs for the running? Her policies are fine -- somewhat business as usual but some changes.

Bernie seems tough as nails. His policies are very drastic though that would change the landscape of the entire country. It is somewhat risky.

Joe Biden seems like middle-ground between the 2. Jolly guy but he is pretty tough if you push him. I don't think he would need to spend $2 billion either and he will get Obama's support (many voters still like Obama). As far as his policies go, I think he would be fine. I would vote for Biden over either Bernie or Hillary. Am I wrong in thinking that?

BTW - Why do people point to Bill Clinton's success when they talk of Hillary? That point is what makes me go "WTF?!?!" Hillary is NOT Bill!! :no: :D Are their policies even similar? I'm not too familiar of Bill's policies but I know he was a big success overall.

[NumberSix]

Am I wrong in thinking that Hillary is not tough enough as president because she needs $2 billion of superPACs for the running? Her policies are fine -- somewhat business as usual but some changes.

Bernie seems tough as nails. His policies are very drastic though that would change the landscape of the entire country. It is somewhat risky.

Joe Biden seems like middle-ground between the 2. Jolly guy but he is pretty tough if you push him. I don't think he would need to spend $2 billion either and he will get Obama's support (many voters still like Obama). As far as his policies go, I think he would be fine. I would vote for Biden over either Bernie or Hillary. Am I wrong in thinking that?

BTW - Why do people point to Bill Clinton's success when they talk of Hillary? That point is what makes me go "WTF?!?!" Hillary is NOT Bill!! :no: :D Are their policies even similar? I'm not too familiar of Bill's policies but I know he was a big success overall.
Hillary is a coattail rider. And Bernie is not tough. He got owned by 2 dumbass black lives matters girls.

[KevinNYC]

I actually don't think any dem could beat The Donald. They've dug their own grave. The left has been endlessly ranting about money/corruption in politics. Trump will say to any dem (especially Hillary) that they're bought and paid for by lobbyist/donor money and that they're in someone else's pocket... And it will be true and everyone will know its true. It's a Trump card, if you will.
:lol

[KevinNYC]

Bernie needs to go all out with colleges. If he can get the majority of the 18-21 votes in the country it'll go a long way toward his cause. College kids are too apathetic though and a lot of them are psuedo feminists.Is Bernie supposed to be anti-feminist? He supports reintroducing the Equal Rights Amendment.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Notebook/Note_2007-SJR10.htm

[KevinNYC]

Watch Trump bring up the 'Monica Lewinski' scandal in his debate with Hillary. Damn, that's going to be insane & very awkward if he steeps that low...

Have people forgotten Marla Maples?

[NumberSix]

Have people forgotten Marla Maples?
???

[RidonKs]

Am I wrong in thinking that Hillary is not tough enough as president because she needs $2 billion of superPACs for the running? Her policies are fine -- somewhat business as usual but some changes.

Bernie seems tough as nails. His policies are very drastic though that would change the landscape of the entire country. It is somewhat risky.

Joe Biden seems like middle-ground between the 2. Jolly guy but he is pretty tough if you push him. I don't think he would need to spend $2 billion either and he will get Obama's support (many voters still like Obama). As far as his policies go, I think he would be fine. I would vote for Biden over either Bernie or Hillary. Am I wrong in thinking that?

BTW - Why do people point to Bill Clinton's success when they talk of Hillary? That point is what makes me go "WTF?!?!" Hillary is NOT Bill!! :no: :D Are their policies even similar? I'm not too familiar of Bill's policies but I know he was a big success overall.
there policies are very similar. hilary is a bit more hawkish, bill is more economically conservative (tho that's partly just climate at the time). and in the grand scheme neither of their agendas vary considerably from the current president's.


but for the pac stuff, that's a silly reason note to vote for somebody imo. why would "being tough" be related in any way to the amount of money in your superpac? either you're tough.. or you aint. and hilarys def got some stones so i'm not too worried about that part.

heres a list superpac money from 2012 election
http://i59.tinypic.com/2q028so.png


and so far for 2016
http://i61.tinypic.com/2eckzeb.jpg

[KevinNYC]

???

Yeah, I keep forgetting that Trump was a local celebrity before the TV show brought him national.


Marla Maples was Trump's long term mistress while he married to Ivana. He divorced Ivana, got Maples pregnant and then married her. They were married for a few years and then he divorced her over money. He divorced her a few months before a big milestone in the prenuptial agreement.

[Lensanity]

I am not voting for any piece of shit that wants to roll back Cannabis legalization

I'd rather have Joe Biden get cancer and die than be elected President.

[bladefd]

but for the pac stuff, that's a silly reason note to vote for somebody imo. why would "being tough" be related in any way to the amount of money in your superpac? either you're tough.. or you aint. and hilarys def got some stones so i'm not too worried about that part

I simply meant that if you need to spend that much money to win an election, something is truly wrong with the picture. If your policies are tough and well articulated for the better of your nation in the long run, you can win without spending obscene amounts of money.

Now on the other hand, if you have to spend that much money, either your policies are weak or you screwed something up somewhere that didn't get your message through to your citizens (thus making you look weak). Whether you win or not is a separate issue altogether.

P.s Don't take my use of the word "tough" as literally tough. To me, being effective is tough. If you need to spend $1 billion to be effective, clearly you are not. This argument is predicated on the notion that to be a great leader of a country, you must know how to communicate to your constituents through your ideas rather than the wealth you flaunt around and getting large corporations on board. That is where I truly respect Bernie Sanders and why I would consider him tough. He doesn't give a sh!t whether corporations or big money or other politicians are on his side or not.. as long as the majority of US citizens are. He is dug in to that.

Makes you wonder where does Clinton foundation end and where does Hilary Clinton campaign start. Has potential for massive conflict of interest. That worries me.

[RidonKs]

I simply meant that if you need to spend that much money to win an election, something is truly wrong with the picture.
well that i agree with. something is definitely wrong with a picture.

still even a really effective strong articulate candidate with good intentions will fail to make a blip on the radar if they don't have any money. i agree with you that a well run campaign shouldn't require hundreds of millions of dollars, but that's in an ideal world where people aren't getting their information from cable news and blogs.

i still think funding should play a very minimal factor in deciding how to vote. really your choice should largely be informed by polling... isn't that a paradox since if you pick a candidate based on informed polling, then everybody else might do that to, in which case the polling would be thrown off kilter? it's like the categorical imperative shoved up its own ass...

[bladefd]

:oldlol:

Very well. You got me there. I guess I live in an idealistic world.

That reminds me of what Plato once said. In an idealistic world, philosophers would be the best kings (or leaders). It's not realistic though when nobody else is on same field as you.

Bernie Sanders basically starting off a losing battle based more upon his ideas and ideals rather than money may be philosophically sound, but it might be a battle fought in vain against those with very deep pockets. I am curious to see how much support he gets as the campaign progresses. It might determine whether I have any hope left in Plato's argument :D

[RidonKs]

i think plato meant that in a miserable world, philosopher kings would rule lol

but it'd probably be easier to do our taxes...

[Take Your Lumps]

I like Bernie a lot. But I don't think people quite understand how much of a political anomaly the Clintons are. This chart is just the tip of the iceberg:

https://i.imgur.com/642gmR0l.png

[Dave3]

We won't know until a debate or two, when a lot of people will be seeing Bernie for the first time. For all the talk about him being a "radical" or left wing "extremist" his points of view actually fall in line with the majority of Americans.

If enough people see him over the next 5 months, he'll have a good chance. That's what he'll depend on though because he doesn't have the financial means to put himself out there at the same level Clinton does. Not to mention like others have already alluded to, Clinton is going to be getting a ton of votes based on her name and gender alone.

[niko]

Low IMO. I think if Hillary is vulnerable, someone else decides to run to take advantage of hte opportunity.

[UK2K]

Similarly, I think Trump has no real chance of winning for the simple fact that I don't believe most of America is going to vote for a celebrity president (yes I know Reagan was in movies). Trump is going to get pushed out by his party when push comes to shove because of his extreme rhetoric and views not consistent with his party.

AKA, the established Republican party doesn't want someone coming in and ruining their control.

He is exactly what America needs, a dont give a ****, take your politics and shove it up your ass type guy.

The Establishment in Congress is very scared.

[NumberSix]

Yeah, I keep forgetting that Trump was a local celebrity before the TV show brought him national.


Marla Maples was Trump's long term mistress while he married to Ivana. He divorced Ivana, got Maples pregnant and then married her. They were married for a few years and then he divorced her over money. He divorced her a few months before a big milestone in the prenuptial agreement.
Ok???

[KevinNYC]

Ok???
I was replied to the person who though Trump would bring up Lewinsky.

It's a move that could backfire on him pretty strongly because people who only know him from his TV, don't know his history.

[ALBballer]

I actually don't think any dem could beat The Donald. They've dug their own grave. The left has been endlessly ranting about money/corruption in politics. Trump will say to any dem (especially Hillary) that they're bought and paid for by lobbyist/donor money and that they're in someone else's pocket... And it will be true and everyone will know its true. It's a Trump card, if you will.

That line wouldn't work on Sanders.

[NumberSix]

That line wouldn't work on Sanders.
Yeah, because Bernie won't even be there after being massively outspent by whoever it is that wins the democrat nomination.

[Jailblazers7]

Nobody is denying that campaign finance plays an important role in elections but the idea that an election can be flat out bought is silly. Some maniac businessman who is clearly unfit to lead isn't going to win the presidency just because he is willing to spend his own money.

If you believe that Donald will win, you are either delusional or flat out stupid.

[rufuspaul]

Nobody is denying that campaign finance plays an important role in elections but the idea that an election can be flat out bought is silly. Some maniac businessman who is clearly unfit to lead isn't going to win the presidency just because he is willing to spend his own money.

If you believe that Donald will win, you are either delusional or flat out stupid.


You're right in that it takes more than money alone, it also takes lobbyists who can get out the vote, but without the money in the first place a candidate is dead in the water.

[NumberSix]

Nobody is denying that campaign finance plays an important role in elections but the idea that an election can be flat out bought is silly. Some maniac businessman who is clearly unfit to lead isn't going to win the presidency just because he is willing to spend his own money.

If you believe that Donald will win, you are either delusional or flat out stupid.
I don't believe that Trump WILL win, but I know he CAN win. He has a very realistic shot.

[NumberSix]

You're right in that it takes more than money alone, it also takes lobbyists who can get out the vote, but without the money in the first place a candidate is dead in the water.
This is it. Money alone doesn't mean you win, but without the money, you're not even in the running.

[FillJackson]

You're right in that it takes more than money alone, it also takes lobbyists who can get out the vote, but without the money in the first place a candidate is dead in the water.
lobbyists get out the vote?

[Dave3]

So a couple months later, and it seems they're tied in Iowa with Sanders leading in New Hampshire. Has anyone ever lost a nomination after winning the first 2 states?

[NumberSix]

So a couple months later, and it seems they're tied in Iowa with Sanders leading in New Hampshire. Has anyone ever lost a nomination after winning the first 2 states?
Ronald Reagan lost both Iowa and New Hapshire and went on to win the presidency in a landslide.

[Dave3]

Ronald Reagan lost both Iowa and New Hapshire and went on to win the presidency in a landslide.
Is that the only time that happened? Has this same order of states been ever since the process was implemented? U.S politics is so interesting lol.

[bladefd]

Is that the only time that happened? Has this same order of states been ever since the process was implemented? U.S politics is so interesting lol.

I cannot tell you how many times it has happened bc I don't know, but it is very rare. I never figured out why considering NH is such a tiny state in the grand scheme of things, but I guess it is what it is. Ohio is usually the biggie in main election -- Iowa/NH in primary.

[Dave3]

I cannot tell you how many times it has happened bc I don't know, but it is very rare. I never figured out why considering NH is such a tiny state in the grand scheme of things, but I guess it is what it is. Ohio is usually the biggie in main election -- Iowa/NH in primary.
I've heard the majority isn't paying attention until Iowa/NH, so the winners there get people paying attention to them.

Found an answer. The only person to lose both in a primary and win is Clinton. The guy who won Iowa was a state Representative which led to everyone campaigning to not even try there, and then a 3rd guy won New Hampshire. I guess my real question should have been has anyone won both Iowa and New Hampshire and then went on to lose, which it looks like it's never happened since 1972, when this process actually started this way.

So...will America elect a socialist? Or Trump? (I'm aware if Cruz wins Iowa it might change a lot for Trump as the primaries continue).

[rufuspaul]

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f80/rufuspaul/IMG_2756_zpsrzho86h9.jpg

[Stout]

I really hope Bernie is the next POTUS.