Number of 25 ppg scorers from 1985-1998 and 2001-2014

[3ball]

1985-1998: 87

2001-2014: 92


30+ point scorers:

1985-1998: 5 different players

2001-2014: 7 different players
.

[GIF REACTION]

(Up coming quotes are from some of the most renowned and well respected NBA analysts and writers on the Earth today. Earning the big bucks because they are the best at what they do... Including ESPN's Henry Abbott, and Grantland's Zach Lowe)

[QUOTE]

[3ball]

Elite scorer numbers are down across the board


25+ point scorers:


1985-1998: 87

2001-2014: 92



30+ point scorers:


1985-1998: 5 different players

2001-2014: 7 different players

[GIF REACTION]

25+ point scorers:


1985-1998: 87

2001-2014: 92



30+ point scorers:


1985-1998: 5 different players

2001-2014: 7 different players

Thorpe explains it best in the video, but the gist is this: In recent years more and more NBA coaches have signed up for the defensive philosophy, popularized by Tom Thibodeau since 2007-08, of "flooding ball-side box."

This is not the same as double-teaming, but it has some similarities. When the ball is on one side of the court, watch for this: Very often an extra defender sneaks over to join the action, bringing a crowd of defenders closer to the ball. It's something that became legal when the NBA began allowing zone defenses in 2001, but it took until 2008 for coaches to really figure out how to take best advantage.

That's when the big-time gunners started to disappear.

Flooding the side of the court with the ball makes everything tougher for that star scorer, starting when he makes the catch and assesses options. Driving lanes are tighter or closed off entirely. More defenders have more ability to get hands in faces. It's difficult to reach favored spots on the court, and to operate once there...

[3ball]

Flooding a weakside defender to the strongside of the court


Today's 3-pointers/spacing and the resulting further distance of help defenders makes offensive players more dangerous when they catch the ball, which necessitates extra tactics (flooding) so the ballhandler isn't so secluded by the spacing - but the flooding tactic merely makes the concentration of defenders equivalent to an un-spaced court where help defenders were already in closer proximity.

Otoh, lack of spacing and closer proximity of help defenders made previous eras better-equipped to handle a player that has the ball without needing risky gambles like flooding, where big men come away from the rim to flood in a mismatch outside the paint.. Instead, the lack of 3-point shooting kept offensive players closer to the paint, which allowed defenders to paint-camp when their man was in the paint or within 3 feet of either side (see Rule 2b of the Illegal Defense Guidelines here (http://nbahoopsonline.com/History/Leagues/NBA/Rules/Fouls.html)).. Paint-camping is a more equitable way to defend the entire court, without necessitating the extra rotations and leaving guys wide open that flooding requires.

[GIF REACTION]

Today's 3-pointers/spacing and the resulting further distance of help defenders makes offensive players more dangerous when they catch the ball, which necessitates extra tactics (flooding) so the ballhandler isn't so secluded by the spacing - but the flooding tactic merely makes the concentration of defenders equivalent to an un-spaced court where help defenders were already in closer proximity.

Otoh, lack of spacing and closer proximity of help defenders made previous eras better-equipped to handle a player that has the ball without needing risky gambles like flooding, where big men come away from the rim to flood in a mismatch outside the paint.. Instead, the lack of 3-point shooting kept offensive players closer to the paint, which allowed defenders to paint-camp when their man was in the paint or within 3 feet of either side (see Rule 2b of the Illegal Defense Guidelines here (http://nbahoopsonline.com/History/Leagues/NBA/Rules/Fouls.html)).. Paint-camping is a more equitable way to defend the entire court, without necessitating the extra rotations and leaving guys wide open that flooding requires.

Flooding the side of the court with the ball makes everything tougher for that star scorer, starting when he makes the catch and assesses options. Driving lanes are tighter or closed off entirely. More defenders have more ability to get hands in faces. It's difficult to reach favored spots on the court, and to operate once there.
..

[3ball]

Flooding the side of the court with the ball makes everything tougher for that star scorer, starting when he makes the catch and assesses options.


Today's 3-pointers/spacing and the resulting further distance of help defenders makes offensive players more dangerous when they catch the ball, which necessitates extra tactics (flooding) so the ballhandler isn't so secluded by the spacing - but the flooding tactic merely makes the concentration of defenders equivalent to an un-spaced court where help defenders were already in closer proximity.

Lack of spacing and the resulting closer proximity of help defenders made previous eras better-equipped to handle a player that has the ball without needing risky gambles like flooding, where big men come away from the rim to flood in a mismatch outside the paint.

Instead, the lack of 3-point shooting kept offensive players closer to the paint, which allowed defenders to paint-camp when their man was in the paint or within 3 feet of either side (see Rule 2b of the Illegal Defense Guidelines here (http://nbahoopsonline.com/History/Leagues/NBA/Rules/Fouls.html)).. Paint-camping is a more equitable way to defend the entire court, without necessitating the extra rotations and leaving guys wide open that flooding requires.
.

[DavisIsMyUniBro]

the only reason 3 ball keeps on talking about attacking the rim is because he wants jordan to penetrate his anus

[BoutPractice]

(Most) changes in rules and tactics are overrated.

Specifically, their impact on great scorers.

All the evidence says that the Kobes, Carmelos and Durants of this world are going to get theirs no matter what you throw at them.

[Thesmallmamba]

So the current era has more talented scorers?

Thanks for letting us know

[BoutPractice]

There was no real era change that made scoring more or less difficult for stars overall, whether your arbitrary cutoff point is 2004 (rule changes!) or 2007 (defenses suddenly discovering they need to protect the strong side!), in one way or the other.

All you see is a repetition of the endless pattern of the usual suspects averaging somewhere between 26 and 33 ppg depending mostly on their specific situation, role and individual performance that particular year.

Critically, the variations within that band seem mostly unpredictable from one year to the next. There's an easy way to prove that as well: can you predict for me the exact ppg Durant is going to average next year? Chances are, some will say around 27, some 29, some 31, but only one of those will be right. Will Carmelo have a 24 ppg or a 28 ppg year? What about Harden?

We're pattern seeking animals, but once you belong to that perennial 25 ppg group, notice how it becomes impossible for you to identify what is going to happen in advance based on whatever pattern you think you're seeing. It's only something you're able to do after the fact, with some bs rationalization about rules and defenses.

[ShawkFactory]

the only reason 3 ball keeps on talking about attacking the rim is because he wants jordan to penetrate his anus:lol

[!@#$%Vectors!@#]

the only reason 3 ball keeps on talking about attacking the rim is because he wants jordan to penetrate his anus

:lol :lol :lol :applause: :bowdown:

[Queen Sansa]

The majority of those 20+ and 30+ scorers from the 2000's come from the 2006/2007 season, after the change, and before the league adjusted with the Thibodeau style defenses. Those 2 years skew the results.

Take those 2 years off the 2000's, and take the other 2 highest years of the 90's, and you'll see a better comparison. Otherwise, this lacks context.

[warriorfan]

1985-1998: 87

2001-2014: 92


30+ point scorers:

1985-1998: 5 different players

2001-2014: 7 different players
.

Ether.

[LBJFTW]

1985-1998: 87

2001-2014: 92


30+ point scorers:

1985-1998: 5 different players

2001-2014: 7 different players
.

This is proof that it is easier for good players to score more ppg in 2001-2014 than it was in 1995-1998. When comparing ppg numbers of that era like Kobe and Bron to past players in 1995-1998 like Jordan, you have to take into account how much easier it was to score. Basically Jordan would score upwards of 40 ppg in today's era and very efficiently. This makes bron look even more beta in comparison to GOAT MJ.

[chips93]

25+ point scorers:


1985-1998: 87

2001-2014: 92



30+ point scorers:


1985-1998: 5 different players

2001-2014: 7 different players

we dont really care about 2001-2014

we care about 2009 until the present, as has been mentioned countless times, the effects of the rules changes only manifested in different defensive schemes by around 2009 or later.

if you had those stats, they would be far more interesting.

[dhsilv]

The majority of those 20+ and 30+ scorers from the 2000's come from the 2006/2007 season, after the change, and before the league adjusted with the Thibodeau style defenses. Those 2 years skew the results.

Take those 2 years off the 2000's, and take the other 2 highest years of the 90's, and you'll see a better comparison. Otherwise, this lacks context.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XXA6RTRT1g4GYn9Fv3nxxwZk8qabonysZq-NiYDf1ZM/edit?usp=sharing

Correct! See the above google doc with every 24.9 point season on record.

2007 had the most 24.9 (I wanted to avoid a rounded value over 24.9 but below 25 that people generally see as being 25) scorers in a single season ever. 2006 is tied with 91 and 72 for the second most.

If we take the assumption (statements by basketball experts) that the start of the modern defenses was 2008 we have and 8 year range to look at.

Now just some simple math here but starting with 8 year rolling averages (didn't do this on the google doc I have 3 and 5 however) and I decided to avoid messing with really old data i left out prior to 74. We get an average of 48.42 seasons in an 8 year range. The 2015 8 year number is 43 and we have a standard deviation of about 7.46 just for context. We also find the the highest 8 year runs were from 91-94 and 2012 (which has the values from the 06 and 07 run).

We can see from the data that there has been a decline in 25+ scorers post 08 though it's not a bigger drop off than we saw in the late 90's (98 and 99 being the worst).

With 29.9 as our standard it's harder to get much from the data. We've only had 2 seasons of 29.9 since 2010 and only 4 since 08. We see similar low points in the early 00's as today (8 year running). 86-95 we see 10+ values though clearly MJ accounts for a rather large portion of this.

Ultimately I think we can see strong evidence that high scoring players is declining, but this has happened before. Odds are offenses and elite players will find ways around it. It would be more interesting to look at 20+ scorers and see if the trends follow but that would require more data and I'm not in the mood unless others want to play with it.

[chips93]

Critically, the variations within that band seem mostly unpredictable from one year to the next. There's an easy way to prove that as well: can you predict for me the exact ppg Durant is going to average next year? Chances are, some will say around 27, some 29, some 31, but only one of those will be right. Will Carmelo have a 24 ppg or a 28 ppg year? What about Harden?

yes, if you go player by player, there is gonna be a decent amount of variation, from year to year. but if you look over multiple year periods, and use multiple scorers (>20ppg), you have a far more meaningful sample size, and the variance diminshes. suddenly there is a clear change. there used to be lots of 20ppg scorers, now, far fewer. maybe its a coincidence, but it seems unlikely, and there is plenty of evidence now to suggest that iso scoring today is different from how it used to be.

the stats, the tape, and the coaches all back it up.

[chips93]

Ultimately I think we can see strong evidence that high scoring players is declining, but this has happened before. Odds are offenses and elite players will find ways around it. It would be more interesting to look at 20+ scorers and see if the trends follow but that would require more data and I'm not in the mood unless others want to play with it.

nice post

how did you get the original data though, do you have some way of scraping it from basketball reference?

[dhsilv]

nice post

how did you get the original data though, do you have some way of scraping it from basketball reference?

Copy and paste from basketball reference after using season finder. For 340 seasons it took like 2 minutes to copy and paste. Thus I'd need people to really care for me to do 20+ which would actually take a lot more time.

I'm updating the file with unique players by decade. Formula is a bit screwy and unlike the other ones I had to think about so modifying it to do rolling ranges would be harder but perhaps you're better than I am :)

[StephHamann]

but if you look over multiple year periods, and use multiple scorers (>20ppg), you have a far more meaningful sample size, and the variance diminshes. suddenly there is a clear change. there used to be lots of 20ppg scorers, now, far fewer.

the stats, the tape, and the coaches all back it up.

Because we live in the collusion era that started 2010.

A guy like Josh Smith could be the nr 1 guy on severall teams, instead he played as 4th-5th fiddle on the rockets for the league minimum. Same with guys like Amare (could still be a starter on some teams) or now David West.

Bosh is another example, of course he won't average 20ppg as the 3rd guy on a team.

[chips93]

Copy and paste from basketball reference after using season finder. For 340 seasons it took like 2 minutes to copy and paste. Thus I'd need people to really care for me to do 20+ which would actually take a lot more time.

I'm updating the file with unique players by decade. Formula is a bit screwy and unlike the other ones I had to think about so modifying it to do rolling ranges would be harder but perhaps you're better than I am :)

i think i might have found an easier way of doing it

EDIT: i was wrong

[dhsilv]

i think i might have found an easier way of doing it

Do share :)

[3ball]

Do share :)
Here's how I got the OP data:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/pts_per_g_top_10.html


Took me about 5 minutes to count 87 guys who averaged 25+ ppg during MJ's career, compared to 92 from 2001-2014.

[dhsilv]

Here's how I got the OP data:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/pts_per_g_top_10.html


Took me about 5 minutes to count 87 guys who averaged 25+ ppg during MJ's career, compared to 92 from 2001-2014.

I was asking if he found a way in excel to do a count unique that is easy to change in input factors so we can test rolling averages and not use the hard coded decades I added to the data.

It can be done mind you, but formulas get ugly and easily screwed up if you're not careful. Thus the ugly sum if if frequency array in the google doc I posted.

[chips93]

the fact that bball reference seasons are in "2014-15" as opposed to just "2015" made it take far longer, so I just did back to the 79-80 season

So this is the number of 20ppg scorers each season

http://s10.postimg.org/vm61c4cuh/20ppg_scorers.jpg

and this is the 5 year rolling average

http://s30.postimg.org/755s1vkw1/Rolling_5_year_average.jpg

so it paints a similar picture, maybe even a little more drastic, than the 25 and 30 ppg scorers do

there is a big fall off in the number of 20ppg scorers from 2008 onwards

[Bankaii]

Because we live in the collusion era that started 2010.

A guy like Josh Smith could be the nr 1 guy on severall teams, instead he played as 4th-5th fiddle on the rockets for the league minimum. Same with guys like Amare (could still be a starter on some teams) or now David West.

Bosh is another example, of course he won't average 20ppg as the 3rd guy on a team.
You're such an idiot.

How far in the playoffs did a Josh Smith led team get? A Bosh led team?

It's morons like you that complain about how weak the East is because teams are getting led by average players but when teams get better you complain about that too.

And did Kareem and Magic, Bird and McHale and Parish, Jordan Pippen and Rodman, Hakeem Barkley and Drexler, Shaq and Kobe and Payton and Malone, Rondo And Ray Allen and Garnett and Pierce, Kobe And Nash and Pau and Dwight all not happen? You act like superstars have never played together.

Dirk is on the streets sucking dick for the chance of a star going to Dallas. But of course you won't mention that.

[dhsilv]

You have the data somewhere you can put into a google doc?

Would be interesting to overlay a few different sets of data together.

[juju151111]

Collision era started after Boston big 3 which means less 30 ppg seasons. Wade and Lj. Then Harden was improving every year and then Dwight joined. He doesn't take enough shots.

[chips93]

I accidentally deleted the file :banghead:

all thats left are those two graphs

I need to get better at excel for a job im starting, so i might do it again tomorrow

[Rocketswin2013]

This thread has confirmed prolific scoring is decreasing due to more advanced defensive strategies.


Congratulations 3ball.

[dhsilv]

I accidentally deleted the file :banghead:

all thats left are those two graphs

I need to get better at excel for a job im starting, so i might do it again tomorrow

Doh!

Best of luck with the job. Sadly the business world runs on excel....as horrible as that sounds!

[3ball]

This thread has confirmed prolific scoring is decreasing due to more advanced defensive strategies.


Congratulations 3ball.
Paint-camping and zone was banned inside the paint by defensive 3 seconds, which forces defenders to stay within "armslength" to remain in the 16 x 19 foot paint area.

Having to stay within "armslength" (about 3 feet) is the exact OPPOSITE of a zone and it's the strictest policy other than having defenders stand shoulder-to-shoulder... Yet this strict policy is what governs the most important area on the floor: the paint.

Defenders in previous eras had FAR more freedom inside the paint.. They could remain in the paint "with no time restriction" if their man was in the paint already or within 3 feet or either side.

[chips93]

Doh!

Best of luck with the job. Sadly the business world runs on excel....as horrible as that sounds!

:cheers:

I do like using excel, I'm just a bit rusty

Im mostly self taught though, I could do with more formal training, just to be able to say I'd done it.

[dhsilv]

:cheers:

I do like using excel, I'm just a bit rusty

Im mostly self taught though, I could do with more formal training, just to be able to say I'd done it.

I've found if you can explain concepts in excel even decently you can get hired as an expert in the field. Add in honestly there's so much free information and so many helpful people online, there's really very little value add professional classes could ever provide.

Now work related things where the class just happens to use excel could be pretty valuable.

All that said places like Mr Excel, youtube, and just googling general questions are power. The hardest part if knowing what to ask it to do.

[ClipperRevival]

There was no real era change that made scoring more or less difficult for stars overall, whether your arbitrary cutoff point is 2004 (rule changes!) or 2007 (defenses suddenly discovering they need to protect the strong side!), in one way or the other.

All you see is a repetition of the endless pattern of the usual suspects averaging somewhere between 26 and 33 ppg depending mostly on their specific situation, role and individual performance that particular year.

Critically, the variations within that band seem mostly unpredictable from one year to the next. There's an easy way to prove that as well: can you predict for me the exact ppg Durant is going to average next year? Chances are, some will say around 27, some 29, some 31, but only one of those will be right. Will Carmelo have a 24 ppg or a 28 ppg year? What about Harden?

We're pattern seeking animals, but once you belong to that perennial 25 ppg group, notice how it becomes impossible for you to identify what is going to happen in advance based on whatever pattern you think you're seeing. It's only something you're able to do after the fact, with some bs rationalization about rules and defenses.

Agreed. I hate how these agenda driven posters try to use stats to further solidify their stance with general and unrelated stats. To me, rules changes are overrated. Players and teams will always adjust to the rules. And yeah, if you're a proven great scorer, like consistently averaging more than 25 ppg, you will get yours in any era.

[GIF REACTION]

the fact that bball reference seasons are in "2014-15" as opposed to just "2015" made it take far longer, so I just did back to the 79-80 season

So this is the number of 20ppg scorers each season

http://s10.postimg.org/vm61c4cuh/20ppg_scorers.jpg

and this is the 5 year rolling average

http://s30.postimg.org/755s1vkw1/Rolling_5_year_average.jpg

so it paints a similar picture, maybe even a little more drastic, than the 25 and 30 ppg scorers do

there is a big fall off in the number of 20ppg scorers from 2008 onwards
Very interesting data

I can see exactly the points of drop off and what happened

The Illegal Defense rule in 1981 exponentially spiked up the number of 20ppg scorers

The shortening of the 3pt line in 94-95 immediately spiked up 20ppg scorers, but it also congested the court and wasn't a good long term solution

The lockout season of 99' was clearly an outlier.... It was well known that many players were out of condition and unfit, leading it to be an outlier of sorts.... It wasn't defenses, but circumstance and the nature of the lockout that caused that slight drop off.... As we can see the rates went back to the same the season before

Then 2001 removal of Illegal defense, didn't really have an immediate impact but I think some teams like Detroit/Spurs/Nets took advantage of it, hence the record defensive season.

We can see the immediate impact the 04 handchecking rule had on 20ppg scorers, but as you said, after 2007 numbers started to rapidly decline, to where it is at all time lowest levels now. Collusion is a bad answer to this. Teams have been colluding since the 80's.. Personally, I think that handchecking has started to not be called as much, and more teams are flooding strong side, using thibs deny the middle ice type defenses which are conservative to an extent, but get the ball out of the 1st options hands. We'll probably find that 2nd and 3rd options make up a higher percentage of team scoring today than any time before.

[Kvnzhangyay]

:cheers:

I do like using excel, I'm just a bit rusty

Im mostly self taught though, I could do with more formal training, just to be able to say I'd done it.

I really do hope you don't have a Mac- Excel is CRAP for Mac

I used to work at a boutique firm before I started working at a BB (bulge bracket) and I started my internship relearning shortcuts with Windows cuz I always used Mac lol

[hawke812]

1985-1998: 87

2001-2014: 92


30+ point scorers:

1985-1998: 5 different players

2001-2014: 7 different players
.

1988-1998: Watered down era of the NBA (Note: Championships from 1989-1998 should only count as a 1/3 of a real championship)

1998-present: Non-watered down era of the NBA

[dhsilv]

http://s30.postimg.org/roimu2nwh/3_Year_Rolling_Average.jpg


So I broke down and wanted to get this a bit more detailed.

So quick concept on the data. I'm using a 3 year rolling average but for each group it is exclusive of the other groups. Meaning if I'm saying you're 19.9 you're 19.9 or greater but less than 24.9.

Interestingly all 3 groups as a rule move in similar trends. What's not accounted for here is the number of teams. It would be nice to normalize for that but this is just what I have.

And the actuals if anyone wants to see to look for rules changes and what not with single season impact.

http://s14.postimg.org/ursykue9d/Actuals.jpg

[scandisk_]

dhsilv...

another one of 3ball's alts

kthnxbye

[dhsilv]

dhsilv...

another one of 3ball's alts

kthnxbye

I'm posting to counter his idiotic statements, and I'm him?

[scandisk_]

I'm posting to counter his idiotic statements, and I'm him?

ohhh I've heard that a hundred times 3ball.

:applause: