Experts predict 2/7

[StephHamann]

Zach Lowe[QUOTE]Cleveland enters the season as a slight favorite to win the title for one basic reason: If the Cavs are healthy, they might be able to walk to the Finals. They almost certainly won

[GIF REACTION]

Yep

he's right

Underdogs confirmed

[russwest0]

It's not like Cleveland's talent around Bron is any worse than the talent the West teams have around their #1 either. It's just that the experts know that Bron ball is nice for padding Bron's numbers vs shit Eastern Conf. teams but won't fly in a 7 game series vs a team of comparable talent.

Bron also isn't getting any better at this point in his career. If he doesn't take a backseat to Irving, they have no chance at winning the Finals.

[Uncle Drew]

Why only post 1 paragraph?


That all makes some theoretical sense. But, people: Cleveland was halfway home in the Finals last season, trotting out a gutted roster against a team that was so much better top to bottom that it was almost comical. Surround LeBron with the real Cavs in a short series, and I don’t really care if the Western Conference representative brings a better season-long point differential.

Even if all five contenders from the West end up qualitatively “better” than Cleveland, the Cavs have to beat only one of them. One of those five West teams is going to lose in the first round. You can’t win the Finals without getting there, and unless Chicago or Atlanta jells in some magical way, it’s hard to see anyone in the East keeping a healthy Cleveland team from reaching the championship round — a place LeBron has been five consecutive seasons.

It’s also unclear whether any of those teams from the West is actually better than Cleveland, at least once you whittle each roster down to its playoff rotation. The Cavs outscored opponents by 17 points per 100 possessions when LeBron, Irving, Love, and Mozgov shared the floor last season — a mark comparable to any of the four- or five-man Golden State units that burned the league down. They were 32-3 in their last 35 games with LeBron, Love, and Irving.

Critics point out the Cavs remained a mediocre defensive team even after acquiring Mozgov, but when he was actually on the floor, they defended at a borderline top-five level. They also worked out a lot of the kinks in Year 1 of the New LeBron Era; Cleveland started the season blitzing pick-and-rolls with the frenzy of LeBron’s Heat teams, realized after about 30 games that Love and Varejao are, umm, a bit slower than Chris Bosh, and dropped back into a more conservative scheme that fits its personnel. The Cavs should do better than 21st in total defensive rebounds and they gave up a few too many 3s, but they at least know who they are now.

Love’s defense will be an issue against some teams. This is his eighth year in the league; it’s time to try harder instead of just talking about trying harder. When he gives a peak effort, Love isn’t as bad as his reputation, and the Cavs have tools to cover for him. They also have a $10.5 million trade exception to add one last piece, but given their beyond-Prokhorovian tax bill after the Tristan Thompson signing, they may not use it. They might not need to, anyway.

:lebronamazed:

[Mr. Jabbar]

These guys are all jelly of LeBron, the thick one. Period

Every day they take a pee and have to look at their spaghetti, how wouldn't they hate on him?

[3ball]

:lebronamazed:


A weak East is nothing new - for example, the 2014 Heat would've barely even MADE the playoffs in the Western Conference - their historic Finals beatdown proved they were a 1st or 2nd Round Western Conference team at best.. So when Lebron left in 2015, they fell from a 1st Round Western Conference team to the lottery, which is essentially no drop-off when you consider that Wade/Bosh were hurt for much of 2015 season.. That's how historically weak the East is.

Of course, Lebron's teams never play to full capacity, because Lebron's teammates always have much lower APG alongside Lebron.. Teammates like Wade, Love, Bosh, Kyrie and Mo Williams all saw their APG crater alongside Lebron, while their assisted rate increased - this proved he turned them from playmakers into playfinishers.. By hogging the playmaking duties to himself, his teams are more solvable/beatable come playoff time, since 1 playmaker teams < multiple playmaker teams.

Lebron's assist-lowering, teamwork-reducing effect is unique - he's the only guy that lowers the APG of teammates - Lebron achieves his stats at the expense of teammates.. With teammates playing below capacity, Lebron's TEAMS play below capacity and underachieve (2009, 2011, 2014).

Just look at the 2015 Finals - Lebron's time of possession averaged a whopping 12.0 minutes per game, or 50% more than the regular season leader (John Wall's 8.2 minutes).. So Lebron had 50% more time with the ball to accumulate his stats than any player all year - he was a massive black hole, which made his team more predictable than ever.