What ISH taught me about current era defense

[3ball]

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There's only minor differences between today's defense and previous eras:


1) Today's defenses can double-team a player who doesn't have the ball, like on the post..


But in previous eras, the lack of spacing meant other players were standing just a couple feet away, so doubling ahead of time wasn't necessary.. When there isn't spacing and help defense is much closer, a team is better off NOT compromising their defense by doubling early and leaving someone wide open.. The lack of spacing and resulting closer proximity of help defense made previous eras better-equipped to handle a post player (or any player) that had the ball.


2) Today's defenses can "flood"..


But the flooding tactic merely attempts to make the concentration of strongside defenders equivalent to the un-spaced courts of previous eras.. Also, here's a concise, 4-sentence (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11647538&postcount=15) comparison of today's flooding to previous era paint-camping.


Otoh, there are things today's defenses can no longer do - they can't get away with double teaming as easily due to spacing, and defenders can't sag off 3-point shooters (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11710410&postcount=19) as much or paint-camp (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11606624&postcount=406).

.

[FKAri]

tldr: Today's defenses are better and more sophisticated than they have ever been.

[3ball]

tldr: Today's defenses are better and more sophisticated than they have ever been.
Players in previous eras had to operate among a greater concentration of defenders - with no spacing, help defense was closer.. It isn't disputable - it's physics..

Within this smaller surface area, players only shot 2-pointers, which didn't need to be as open - higher levels of contest were acceptable and expected, thus eliminating the need for teams to run as much offense..

Pace was faster, but the lack of spacing meant shots were still more contested - footage of any old game shows teams running up and down and taking contested shot after contested shot of wildly diverse midrange and 2-pointers.. It was a faster-paced game that required more skill.

[Quickening]

tldr: Today's defenses are better and more sophisticated than they have ever been.

This is fact.

[3ball]

This is fact.
No it isn't - defenses are simply forced to make more rotations today because they must cover extra ground created by spacing/3-point shooting while abiding by defensive 3 seconds.

Today's defensive strategies were created to combat spacing and therefore only OFFSET the spacing - so it's no harder to score today than previous eras:

No spacing + no defensive 3 seconds = spacing + defensive 3 seconds + extra rotations to compensate
.

[GIF REACTION]

Do you want to know what I think about this 3ball?

[3ball]

Do you want to know what I think about this 3ball?
You think previous eras had rules-enforced spacing, but it didn't - defenders could sag off 3-point shooters more than today's defenders can.
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[sdot_thadon]

tldr: Today's defenses are better and more sophisticated than they have ever been.
:applause:

[dhsilv]

tldr: Today's defenses are better and more sophisticated than they have ever been.

Correct! What would be nice is to see someone go back and simulate "player tracking" through old footage to illustrate how much more movement players today make on defense compared to the past. I'd venture to guess the average miles traveled on the defensive end is 2-3x greater.

[Smoke117]

...but what does any of this have to do with MJ or lebron? You can't make a post without them coming up, so I have to think you are keeping an ace in the hole?

[ShawkFactory]

...but what does any of this have to do with MJ or lebron? You can't make a post without them coming up, so I have to think you are keeping an ace in the hole?
Nope. Now that Curry is seeming to be the new craze his attention will be focused solely on him.

Kind of sad really. That his attention and time are both taken up by what people who still watch the game think about a popular player.

[3ball]

I'd venture to guess the average miles traveled on the defensive end is 2-3x greater today.


Today's defenses are forced to make more rotations because they must cover extra ground created by spacing, while also abiding by defensive 3 seconds.

But the difficulty of scoring itself hasn't changed - you either have extra rotations required by spacing and defensive 3 seconds (today's game), or the rotations aren't necessary because there is no spacing or defensive 3 seconds (previous eras).. :confusedshrug:

[dhsilv]

Today's defenses are forced to make more rotations because they must cover extra ground created by spacing, while also abiding by defensive 3 seconds.

But the difficulty of scoring itself hasn't changed - you either have extra rotations required by spacing and defensive 3 seconds (today's game), or the rotations aren't necessary because there is no spacing or defensive 3 seconds (previous eras).. :confusedshrug:

The argument's in regards to scoring and backed up by the decline in certain points per game ranges (20+, 25+) is that defense are better able to prevent the iso dominate ball of the past. They also have been able to do damage to traditional offenses such as the triangle.

One of the thing I plan to do once I both get more data set up and get it better structured (raw excel is a bit of a pain to work with, I'm debating giving power pivot a go in the new office 16 instead of moving to a real data base where I'd have issues with graphics) is to work on visualization on offensive distribution and how it has changed over time.

[3ball]

The argument's in regards to scoring and backed up by the decline in certain points per game ranges (20+, 25+) is that defense are better able to prevent the iso dominate ball of the past. They also have been able to do damage to traditional offenses such as the triangle.


It isn't backed up by the number of 25 point scorers:

25 point scorers from 2001-2015: 92
25 point scorers from 1984-1998: 87


Of course, isolations are easier today because the spacing gives players more time and room with the ball, and bigger driving lanes - this isn't disputable - it's physics.. Additionally, screen-rolls are a two-man isolations and they're spaced far better than they used to be, which allows them to be used far more often.

Screen-rolls and isolations represent over 50% of any guard or SF's offense in today's game - this is fact - we have the data.. This is much more than previous eras, when screen-roll wasn't used very often.. Screen-roll was only used to hit the big man rolling or pick-n-pop for long two-pointer - this is much less efficient and spaced much worse than today's drive-and-kick for elite 3-point shooting.

Btw, Kobe won 2 rings in 2009 and 2010 with the triangle.

[Cocaine80s]

http://fat.gfycat.com/FamousClearAssassinbug.gif

[3ball]

Today's defenses are forced to make more rotations because they must cover extra ground created by spacing, while also abiding by defensive 3 seconds.

But the difficulty of scoring itself hasn't changed - you either have extra rotations required by spacing and defensive 3 seconds (today's game), or the rotations aren't necessary because there is no spacing or defensive 3 seconds (previous eras).. :confusedshrug:


Without having to get into the weeds, the response above gives the proper perspective when new fans say today's defenses are more sophisticated.

[dhsilv]

It isn't backed up by the number of 25 point scorers:

25 point scorers from 2001-2015: 92
25 point scorers from 1984-1998: 87


Of course, isolations are easier today because the spacing gives players more time and room with the ball, and bigger driving lanes - this isn't disputable - it's physics.. Additionally, screen-rolls are a two-man isolations and they're spaced far better than they used to be, which allows them to be used far more often.

Screen-rolls and isolations represent over 50% of any guard or SF's offense in today's game - this is fact - we have the data.. This is much more than previous eras, when screen-roll wasn't used very often.. Screen-roll was only used to hit the big man rolling or pick-n-pop for long two-pointer - this is much less efficient and spaced much worse than today's drive-and-kick for elite 3-point shooting.

Btw, Kobe won 2 rings in 2009 and 2010 with the triangle.

We've already shown that 2008-current (the modern defensive era) has had lower high volume scorers. You've posted this crap and you've been refuted. Why are you still posting information that you know was gathered without context and posting it to argue a point it does not prove?

Seriously dude. What is wrong with you?

[3ball]

We've already shown that 2008-current (the modern defensive era) has had lower high volume scorers. You've posted this crap and you've been refuted. Why are you still posting information that you know was gathered without context and posting it to argue a point it does not prove?

Seriously dude. What is wrong with you?
You get really melodramatic about basic stats you don't like.. :oldlol: .. deal with it:

25 point scorers from 2001-2015: 92
25 point scorers from 1984-1998: 87

[dhsilv]

You get really melodramatic about basic stats you don't like.. :oldlol: .. deal with it:

25 point scorers from 2001-2015: 92
25 point scorers from 1984-1998: 87

Meh fine.

As I said 25+ point scoring is down under the modern rules.

But to your point here's a picture of a cat. My cat picture has more value than your stats....

http://www.tumblr18.com/t18/2013/10/Pretty-kitten.jpg

[3ball]

25 point scorers from 2001-2015: 92
25 point scorers from 1984-1998: 87




25+ point scoring is down under the modern rules (2005-2015)


You're sample size is 10 years and mine is 14.. So what about 30+ scoring?

That's what I thought
.

[dhsilv]

You're sample size is 10 years and mine is 14.. So what about 30+ scoring?

That's what I thought
.

30 point scoring was cited as well and you know this. You know why your sample range is meaningless as well.

You still haven't explained the pretty kitty though. You're just going to dodge it?

[3ball]

30 point scoring was cited as well and you know this.


There were only two 30 point scorers in the 90's, compared to eight from 2000-2010.

Apparently, it was much easier to be a bigtime scorer like MJ in the 2000's.. :confusedshrug:

[LoneyROY7]

Damn. MJ was so overrated due to illegal defense.

[3ball]

Damn. MJ was so overrated due to illegal defense.
Let's compare the eras:

PREVIOUS ERA:.. paint-camping... no-spacing... hand-checking
TODAY'S ERA:...... shading........... spacing.. ...no hand-checking


Remember, Wade and Westbrook led league in scoring in 2009 and 2015 with a worse 3-point shot and far worse mid-range shot than MJ.. Nor could they double-pump with ease from the FT line (http://cdn.makeagif.com/media/10-03-2015/64Ba72.gif) like MJ..

That's why he averaged 37 ppg on all two-pointers, and still shot 59% ts.. No one in today's game could even average 25 ppg on all two's.

[ShawkFactory]

Damn. 3ball avoiding that cat picture like the plague

[dhsilv]

There were only two 30 point scorers in the 90's, compared to eight from 2000-2010.

Apparently, it was much easier to be a bigtime scorer like MJ in the 2000's.. :confusedshrug:

playing dumb for what reason? We are at least in the second if not third era post jordan. The first two years of JOrdan likely were a different era than the majority of his run for that matter.

But here I am doing the same thing I keep doing.....:banghead:

[dhsilv]

Damn. 3ball avoiding that cat picture like the plague

no counter to the cat man!

[sd3035]

tldr: Today's defenses are better and more sophisticated than they have ever been.

This is the correct answer

Jordan would be a worse shooting JR Smith in today's league

[3ball]

very nice, but not believable.

[swagga]

tldr -> MJ

[swagga]

michael jordan is the GOAT.

[3ball]

today's defenses are more sophisticated

Jordan would be a worse shooting JR Smith in today's league



That's a shallow understanding of the changes on offense and defense over the years.. Today's defensive "sophistication" is nothing more than defenses being forced to make extra rotations, as required to cover additional ground created by spacing, while also abiding by the new defensive 3 seconds rule.

But in previous eras, without spacing or the new defensive 3 seconds rule, the extra rotations weren't necessary, so the difficulty of scoring was the same.. This is proven by the stats, since we have a stat that measures how hard it is to score.. It's called league-wide offensive rating, or ORtg, and it's been stable for 30 years, ranging between 105 and 108 - this excludes a brief downswing from 1999-2004.. ORtg reached an all-time high of 108.3 in 2009.. (the minor shifts within that 105-108 range are due to style of play differences between the eras that affect inputs to the ORtg calculation, such as offensive rebounding rate and FT rate)

Cliffs: 30 years of stable ORtg proves the difficulty of scoring hasn't changed, and the changes in strategy on offense (spacing) and defense (extra rotations) are offsetting - you either have extra rotations required by spacing and defensive 3 seconds (today's game), or the rotations aren't necessary because there is no spacing or defensive 3 seconds (previous eras).

[swagga]

That's a shallow understanding of the changes on offense and defense over the years.. Today's defensive "sophistication" is nothing more than defenses being forced to make extra rotations, as required to cover additional ground created by spacing, while also abiding by the new defensive 3 seconds rule.

But in previous eras, without spacing or the new defensive 3 seconds rule, the extra rotations weren't necessary, so the difficulty of scoring was the same.. This is proven by the stats, since we have a stat that measures how hard it is to score.. It's called league-wide offensive rating, or ORtg, and it's been stable for 30 years, ranging between 105 and 108 - this excludes a brief downswing from 1999-2004.. ORtg reached an all-time high of 108.3 in 2009.. (fyi - the shifts within that 105-108 range are due to style of play differences between the eras that affect inputs to the ORtg calculation, such as offensive rebounding rate and FT rate)

30 years of stable ORtg proves the difficulty of scoring hasn't changed, and the changes in strategy on offense (spacing) and defense (extra rotations) are offsetting - you either have extra rotations required by spacing and defensive 3 seconds (today's game), or the rotations aren't necessary because there is no spacing or defensive 3 seconds (previous eras).

imo the 90s defenses looked primitive because jordan just destroyed them so many times, and it made the coaches just give up tbh.

[feyki]

League points per possesions explain this. Players are compact elements of their teams , individual talents only calculate with the era's dynamics (efg,pace,poss rating and adjust the other numbers ) .