Any analytics on how a rookie starts his career vs how his whole career shapes up?

[tmacattack33]

There's analytics and stats out there for everything now.

Does anyone know what the percentages of somebody a player becoming an all-star if he fails to averages less than 10 ppg on less than 35% FG in his first 10 games for example? (Yes, I'm talking about D'eangelo Russell)

Or, on the positive side, what are the chances that Jahlil Okafor keeps it up...what are the chances that a player who averages 20 ppg in his first 10 games goes on to become a perennial all-star?



Or if not, can somebody post the stats for the first 10 games for 10 career all-stars, 10 career role players, and 10 career total busts? Using bballreference.com this won't take too long (I'm at work and can't do it)

[oh the horror]

I will say this, people here bank too hard on someone's rookie season being an indicator on how good they'll be and that is not the case at all. I can name a ton of players who are hall of famers that had underwhelming rookie seasons. We simply just don't know until things pan out. Not sure about analytics though

[Sarcastic]

Didn't Kobe have a pretty rough first year?

Didn't Tyreke Evans have one of the best rookie years ever?

[iamgine]

Rookie no.

3rd year then maybe we can see some patterns.

[tmacattack33]

Didn't Kobe have a pretty rough first year?

Didn't Tyreke Evans have one of the best rookie years ever?

Kobe was straight out of high school.

And damn, that will complicate things in the analytics side.

We'll have to separate between rookies under 20 and over 20 I guess.






And yes, Tyreke had a great rookie year. He's one of the only ones I remember that happening to though.

[tmacattack33]

Rookie no.

3rd year then maybe we can see some patterns.

There will be a pattern with rookie years as well. It just might be very weak. That is what I am trying to figure out.

[oh the horror]

Dirk in his rookie season averaged 8ppg, 3rpg, 40% from the field...



And yes we should consider ages involved. Kobe was out of HS at 18 but Russell himself is merely what, 19?

[Sarcastic]

Kobe was straight out of high school.

And damn, that will complicate things in the analytics side.

We'll have to separate between rookies under 20 and over 20 I guess.



And yes, Tyreke had a great rookie year. He's one of the only ones I remember that happening to though.

Emekah Okafor won ROY over Dwight too. Is he even in the NBA still?

[NBAplayoffs2001]

Didn't Kobe have a pretty rough first year?

Didn't Tyreke Evans have one of the best rookie years ever?

1. True but Kobe also was backing up two All Star guards in Nick Van Exel and Eddie Jones. They weren't perennial all stars or anything but Kobe did struggle quite a lot. I think he averaged 8ppg on like 41 % fg. Kobe took about 4 years to become a superstar in 2001.

2. Tyreke Evans came into the league as one of the most NBA ready rookies that season. He had a magical season no doubt but I don't think anyone thought he would deteriorate that quickly. If you played NBA 2k11 on simulation, Tyreke often put 26 ppg a season later in his simulated career. I think in one of my season simulations on 2k11, he made the Hall of Fame :facepalm. I just remember him being solid on Memphis in college and from those I know who have seen him play in high school, his jumper was the only weak aspect of his game at the time.

[NBAplayoffs2001]

Emekah Okafor won ROY over Dwight too. Is he even in the NBA still?

It's a shame. His career stats steadily decreased ever year. Still was a 12/10 player career wise and a 15/10 player for the first few years.

I think everyone during that draft knew that Okafor was the best safe bet and Dwight had HOF potential.

[iamgine]

There will be a pattern with rookie years as well. It just might be very weak. That is what I am trying to figure out.
if it's very weak then it's useless data.

[Rake2204]

Kobe was straight out of high school.

And damn, that will complicate things in the analytics side.

We'll have to separate between rookies under 20 and over 20 I guess.Yep, I think any rookie data analytics would need to be separated by some form of age brackets. The expectations of teenagers in the NBA has increased dramatically over the last 20 years. Of course, there's a reason for that, since some teens have proven they can beast right off the bat. But that can't be so for all.

[BlackWhiteGreen]

Try CARMELO, FiveThirtyEight's player comparison system. They have projections for everyone but it's hard to know how accurate it is without seeing how they projected players before. Still interesting to see

[Solidape]

There's analytics and stats out there for everything now.

Does anyone know what the percentages of somebody a player becoming an all-star if he fails to averages less than 10 ppg on less than 35% FG in his first 10 games for example? (Yes, I'm talking about D'eangelo Russell)

Or, on the positive side, what are the chances that Jahlil Okafor keeps it up...what are the chances that a player who averages 20 ppg in his first 10 games goes on to become a perennial all-star?



Or if not, can somebody post the stats for the first 10 games for 10 career all-stars, 10 career role players, and 10 career total busts? Using bballreference.com this won't take too long (I'm at work and can't do it)


Mike Miller was a rookie of the year but turned into a journeyman. He wasn't bad but wasn't great either. Its weird how some rookie of the years never turn into stars, while other times some rookies suck and turn into stars.

You raise an interesting question and I hope someone here does answer your question because I am curious about it too.

For every Lebron, Antony, AI, Duncan running out of the gate rookie, there are slower rookies like Kobe, Curry.

I guess we all want to know....Is D'Angelo slow (as in a star in the making) or a bust!

Please post the stats!

[Marchesk]

Wilt set the NBA record in scoring and rebounding his rookie season, and ended up ranked top 3 GOAT.

So if Towns does something like that, we'll know he's special.

[outbreak]

it's not about stats in a rookie season it's about showing potential. alot of great guards got blocked a lot in their rookie seasons but they got to the rim, a lot of great bigs gave up fouls in their rookie seasons but they contested the shot. Things like that don't look good on the stats but you can see the potential if they adjust and refine to the speed of the game. that's how I look at rookies anyway

[Kobe_6/8]

Brandon Jennings scored 50 in his 7th career game...he has never done that again lol