e Bigass 2016 Poltics thread: part III Trump, Cruz, Rubio

[KevinNYC]

There's a another Republican debate tonight.

The race feels like it's changed. I think Carson has had his moment.

It's looking like the Republican nominee will be either Trump, Rubio or Cruz.

[KevinNYC]

Carson was over 20% for a while, but I think the inexperience and the weirdness factor have done him in. I think people stopped seeing him as someone who can be president. Look at steeply he's dropped off. Pollster has him at just over 10% now. Real Clear has him at 12%.

http://e.huffpost.com/screenshooter/elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/embed/ss2/2016-national-gop-primary/20151215153848943.png

[Derka]

Not watching...the Celtics/Cavs game > this crap. I'm done with debates.

Basically, if Rand Paul isn't the Republican nominee...I'm not casting a vote for President in 2016 at all. He's the only GOP candidate I've heard so far who speaks with even a shred of common sense, even if I don't agree with everything he says (especially his notions of isolationism, which I'm fairly certain he would be forced to abandon early on in his administration).

The rest of the field (both parties) are either suckling on the party's teet or saying whatever grabs headlines to appeal to the lowest common denominator on both ends of the spectrum.

2016 race is a joke.

[KevinNYC]

Cruz is looking more and more like a contender. He seems to have gotten the support that Carson has lost.

http://e.huffpost.com/screenshooter/elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/embed/ss2/2016-national-gop-primary/20151215154219741.png

He recently got a coalition of social conservatives to get behind him. Endorsements should start rolling out. (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428515/conservative-leaders-ted-cruz-earns-allegiance-private-meeting)
But this barely scratches the surface. An avalanche of endorsements is forthcoming from conservative leaders, including James Dobson, founder and chairman emeritus of Focus on the Family, Ken Cuccinelli of Senate Conservatives Fund, Penny Nance of Concerned Women for America, and of course, from Perkins himself.

And this should help in socially conservative Iowa where he is doing well.
http://e.huffpost.com/screenshooter/elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/embed/ss2/2016-iowa-presidential-republican-primary/20151215154643383.png

He's well behind Trump nationally, but he becomes "the social conservative" candidate and he wins Iowa, he starts looking good at the time when most people start looking close...which is after Iowa.

[KevinNYC]

Trump is still leading nationally by large margins. Even higher as of late.

22 point lead in Pollster, 17 point lead in Real Clear Politics. I think Pollster weighs for momentum.

The issue with Trump is can he build an organization that will get people out to vote. He is doing well amongst lower-education voters who are the ones least likely to vote.

Everyone is still sticking around until Iowa, but once people start dropping out, I think the establishment would probably try to unify around Rubio, the religious wing around Cruz to try and take on Trump in a 3 man race.

[HitandRun Reggie]

Republicans are screwed. Trump, too extreme. Cruz, smart but too religious. Rubio, too timid. Carson, too weird. Christie, too aesthetically unappealing. Romney was a better choice than all these guys. He probably could have beaten Hillary if he had passed on the last election and ran this time around.

[KevinNYC]

Basically, if Rand Paul isn't the Republican nominee..
Paul just made it to the main debate on the basis of a single poll. (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-rand-paul-barely-made-it-into-tuesdays-main-debate/)

I wonder if he endorses anyone after he drops out.

[Derka]

Paul just made it to the main debate on the basis of a single poll. (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-rand-paul-barely-made-it-into-tuesdays-main-debate/)

I wonder if he endorses anyone after he drops out.
Yeah, he's being drowned out big time. He's trying to take the high road with all the bombast the other candidates are slinging around and as a result no one really cares what he's saying. That and he's simply a pretty dry guy.

[Nanners]

anyone but cruz please

[KevinNYC]

Republicans are screwed.

http://www.people-press.org/files/2015/04/4-6-2015_01.png

I wonder if as less folks have identified as Republican, that has left a more conservatively-concentrated party.

Will any moderate Republicans exist after 2016?

[Dresta]

A Cruz & Rand Paul ticket would be acceptable, just about. By far the best out of the viable options - Rubio is a maniac when it comes to foreign policy, and a corporate stooge when it comes to immigration reform.

But funnily enough the mainstream media has managed to convince people that Cruz is some kind febrile and illiterate maniac, despite his resume, career, and proven acumen shitting all over someone like Hilary Clinton's, a woman who has never had to prove herself, in any arena. I still don't trust him, but he has a far better understanding of American history and constitutional law than most politicians, that's for sure.

But somehow masses of people managed to terrify themselves over the thought of a government shut-down, despite it being no real rarity, and being a rather insignificant problem. Just like with the 2008 bailouts, the government and its media shills were peppering people alarmist and fear-mongering claptrap - the best way to get people to sanction their own blind robbery.

It's amazing that we've got to the point where considering the 10th amendment as part of the Constitution makes you an extremist. The fundamental issue of the US founding, in the balance between State and Federal power, completely swept under the rug - something only racists and bigots care about, apparently.

[KevinNYC]

Pollster
Donald Trump 38.0%
Ted Cruz 17.2%
Marco Rubio 10.1%
Ben Carson 8.3%
Jeb Bush 5.5%


Hillary Clinton 57.2%
Bernie Sanders 29.5%

RCP
36.5 Trump
17.8 Cruz
11.3 Rubio
9.3 Carson
4.2 Bush


55.3 Clinton
30.0 Sanders


Predict Wise Betting Markets

Hillary Clinton 59 %
Marco Rubio 14 %
Donald Trump 10 %
Ted Cruz 9 %
Jeb Bush 3 %
Chris Christie 3 %
Bernie Sanders 2 %


My SF-86 cleared and I sign my employment contract Monday. So long. It's been real.

Chewing, here's the image for your profile photo
https://41.media.tumblr.com/a54943b81c3b87630cb3aab9eeec62e1/tumblr_nyn6rv2JPu1rlb7pso1_500.jpg

[oh the horror]

Republicans not only are going to take yet another loss when the time comes but have ushered in the first black president and probably first woman president back to back.

[TheMan]

Republicans not only are going to take yet another loss when the time comes but have ushered in the first black president and probably first woman president back to back.
Not only is the GOP way too right and out of touch with the majority of the electorate, the Democrats have been winning the bigger states (where they lead with minorites) so going into the GE, they have a decided advantage in the electoral college.

The demographics have shifted to the Dems, the GOP's base is literally dying off...

[GIF REACTION]

Not only is the GOP way too right and out of touch with the majority of the electorate, the Democrats have been winning the bigger states (where they lead with minorites) so going into the GE, they have a decided advantage in the electoral college.

The demographics have shifted to the Dems, the GOP's base is literally dying off...
Because of the illegals flooding into the country

[Dresta]

The same people who think Cruz is 'crazy' are perfectly willing to elect that evil bitch Clinton, a woman with a track record of lies and corruption and abuse of power longer than the EU Constitution:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE8PG2mpo58


That's pretty damn crazy if you ask me.

[NumberSix]

Not only is the GOP way too right and out of touch with the majority of the electorate, the Democrats have been winning the bigger states (where they lead with minorites) so going into the GE, they have a decided advantage in the electoral college.

The demographics have shifted to the Dems, the GOP's base is literally dying off...
Actually, we're really seeing that the Republican Party is not right wing enough.

People like you who don't really follow politics are in for a rude awakening. The American public isn't who you think they are.

Since Obama's election, the democrats have lost over 900 elections to the republicans. Republicans have the majority in the house, the senate, the majority of governors, the majority of state legislatures, etc...

In the most recent polling, nationally, Trump only trails Hillary by 2 points. 49% to 47%. And that's within the margin of error.

Here's the problem with young people. They see all the other young people around them are "liberal" and think that the entire country is like that. They have yet to realize that when people grow up, they become conservative. The majority of these conservatives you see on tv were also "liberals" when they were young. Most people don't spend their entire lives as hippie pot smokers who are lesbian on weekends. People grow out of that when they get into the real world. The only thing the left has to offer these people at that point is free stuff or convincing people that they're part of an identity group that will all be enslaved if the right wins.

[Patrick Chewing]

These delusional Liberals actually think the American people are going to elect another Obama in Hillary. They have not been paying attention to the overall sentiment against Obama and Washington.

[D-Wade316]

Because of the illegals flooding into the country
:oldlol: :oldlol: :oldlol:

[Patrick Chewing]

Bernie Sanders was on CBS this morning saying that Trump said that all Mexicans were bad and dangerous for the country as well as Muslims.

Why do Dems lie so much? Trump never said these things.


The better question is, why do idiots believe this nonsense and vote for these slimeballs??

[TheMan]

These delusional Liberals actually think the American people are going to elect another Obama in Hillary. They have not been paying attention to the overall sentiment against Obama and Washington.
This wing nut calling anyone else delusional is just lol

[TheMan]

Actually, we're really seeing that the Republican Party is not right wing enough.

People like you who don't really follow politics are in for a rude awakening. The American public isn't who you think they are.

Since Obama's election, the democrats have lost over 900 elections to the republicans. Republicans have the majority in the house, the senate, the majority of governors, the majority of state legislatures, etc...

In the most recent polling, nationally, Trump only trails Hillary by 2 points. 49% to 47%. And that's within the margin of error.

Here's the problem with young people. They see all the other young people around them are "liberal" and think that the entire country is like that. They have yet to realize that when people grow up, they become conservative. The majority of these conservatives you see on tv were also "liberals" when they were young. Most people don't spend their entire lives as hippie pot smokers who are lesbian on weekends. People grow out of that when they get into the real world. The only thing the left has to offer these people at that point is free stuff or convincing people that they're part of an identity group that will all be enslaved if the right wins.
:oldlol:

[KyrieTheFuture]

Because of the illegals flooding into the country
Yes but the right knows this is the case and pretty much decided to double down on pissing them off