What % of winning a championship has to do with luck?

[livinglegend]

Some factors depending on luck:
- A good percentage of injuries
- getting hot at the right time and not getting cold at the wrong. All teams have phases in a season when everything clicks and other times, nothing works.
- Playoffs seedings. Some teams get lucky and don't have to play their worst matchup.
-...

[warriorfan]

The chance of whether or not your franchise is able to draft Steph Curry.

[Asukal]

2/6 chance :rolleyes:

[ArbitraryWater]

I dont think a title has EVER come down to a team getting 'hot and cold' at the right time, bs cliche for kids, tbh.. this is a 7-game format anyway, you don't get hot over 7 games you're just that good then.

Its mainly injuries, and some of it matchups I guess, although thats the sport itself. I mean, if you have matchup problems with that team then I guess you aren't better.

[Gus Hemmingway]

Injuries

[Kobe_6/8]

Some factors depending on luck:
- A good percentage of injuries
- getting hot at the right time and not getting cold at the wrong. All teams have phases in a season when everything clicks and other times, nothing works.
- Playoffs seedings. Some teams get lucky and don't have to play their worst matchup.
-...

- Injuries are a risk that has to be planned for.

- Team chemistry & consistent performance.

- Every team earns their seed, there are no 'lucky' matchups.

[dubeta]

There's around 1-9 different factors that contribute to various degrees in winning a championship

[maybeshewill13]

2/6 chance :rolleyes:
:applause:

[livinglegend]

I dont think a title has EVER come down to a team getting 'hot and cold' at the right time, bs cliche for kids, tbh.. this is a 7-game format anyway, you don't get hot over 7 games you're just that good then.

Its mainly injuries, and some of it matchups I guess, although thats the sport itself. I mean, if you have matchup problems with that team then I guess you aren't better.

I never said that.
Winning title never comes down 1 thing. All the different factors add up and their summation decides if a team wins or not. Getting cold at the wrong time is one of the many other factors.

[livinglegend]

- Injuries are a risk that has to be planned for.

- Team chemistry & consistent performance.

- Every team earns their seed, there are no 'lucky' matchups.

Planned for? Easier said than done. If your best player gets injured, it's hard to plan for that.

[livinglegend]

2/6 chance :rolleyes:
:facepalm
You guys are so boring.
You bring up the same things in each and every topic.
Don't you get tired of discussing and repeating the same thing over and over again?:facepalm :facepalm

[KiiiiNG]

Some years you get the benefit of playing weak teams in the finals, too...

Almost all of Kobe's rings came against garbage teams from the East. Nets.... Sixers, Magic...

And we all remember the rig jobs for the Lakers over the years. Pure luck.

2012 Thunder not only went through the gauntlet in the west, Beating the Mavs, Lakers, and Spurs, but they then had to face one of the greatest teams in NBA history in the finals. Definition of being unlucky.

Last year the Warriors faced 4 injured teams and "beat" a Cavs team without Love and Irving. :oldlol: Definition of lucky.

So obviously it's a big factor OP. Huge. Lotta luck involved.

[Horatio33]

100% of champions have luck. It's a good trait. When Napoleon was looking for generals, he would ask, "are they lucky?"

[tmacattack33]

Is an injury all luck?

Don't you have to give some credit to a player's training regiment (which might be highly influenced by that team's trainers) if they don't get injured?



Also, some injuries due to the coach being stupid. Like when Kobe was given way to many minutes and then got injured. That wasn't luck.

[kennethgriffin]

For lebron


2012
20% ring chasing
20% colluding
20% refs
20% conference/injuries to other stars
20% luck

2013
100% ray allen ( all that other stuff wasnt enough apparently )

[Bandito]

Paying your dues when you lose a bet like a man would.

[Prime_Shaq]

Only injuries to me, the rest can be controlled to a certain extent

[Asukal]

:facepalm
You guys are so boring.
You bring up the same things in each and every topic.
Don't you get tired of discussing and repeating the same thing over and over again?:facepalm :facepalm

"Leflop stans" and "intelligent conversation" does not mix brah :rolleyes:

[BlueandGold]

lol injuries gtfo, this isn't the NFL. There is a MINIMAL amount of chance in the NBA. The first seed BY FAR won it last year and normally the first three overall seeds win it year by year.

[All Net]

Is an injury all luck?

Don't you have to give some credit to a player's training regiment (which might be highly influenced by that team's trainers) if they don't get injured?



Also, some injuries due to the coach being stupid. Like when Kobe was given way to many minutes and then got injured. That wasn't luck.
Too many times people see injures as luck but training staff plays a bigger factor

[DMAVS41]

Only injuries to me, the rest can be controlled to a certain extent

Not true at all.

You can't control how good the teams you face are.

The 12 Thunder had to play a very good Heat team in the finals. A team much better than many of the East teams previously. You really think the 12 Thunder have control over playing the Heat and not a team on par with the 07 Cavs?

Same thing in 08 for the Lakers...they play the 07 Cavs and they have a title.

Same thing in 06 for the Mavs...they play some of those Nets teams, the 07 Cavs, the 09 Magic...etc...they win.

Way more than just injury luck plays a role in this stuff...

[ArbitraryWater]

Not true at all.

You can't control how good the teams you face are.

The 12 Thunder had to play a very good Heat team in the finals. A team much better than many of the East teams previously. You really think the 12 Thunder have control over playing the Heat and not a team on par with the 07 Cavs?

Same thing in 08 for the Lakers...they play the 07 Cavs and they have a title.

Same thing in 06 for the Mavs...they play some of those Nets teams, the 07 Cavs, the 09 Magic...etc...they win.

Way more than just injury luck plays a role in this stuff...

But that has nothing to do with the NBA IN THAT YEAR, If we compare historically, obviously there will have been stronger and weaker years...



Gotta be Injuries almost only, and in most cases you can't account for them..

I mean, 2007 is filled with extraordinaire circumstances..

Dirk's injury, father surgery middle of series, coach now at the opponents bench knowing them inside out, opponents record not indicative of their healthy version, etc etc etc
Pretty much all freak stuff came together there, happens rarely though.

[DMAVS41]

But that has nothing to do with the NBA IN THAT YEAR, If we compare historically, obviously there will have been stronger and weaker years...



Gotta be Injuries almost only, and in most cases you can't account for them..

I mean, 2007 is filled with extraordinaire circumstances..

Dirk's injury, father surgery middle of series, coach now at the opponents bench knowing them inside out, opponents record not indicative of their healthy version, etc etc etc
Pretty much all freak stuff came together there, happens rarely though.

But a team doesn't control who they play....for the most part at least. The 08 Lakers simply win the title with ease if they play the 07 Cavs. Same thing with the 06 Mavs.

How is it injuries almost only? You have more control over injuries and how you prepare/prevent them as a team/player than you do how good the Eastern champion is for example...

Which is to say...a team has no control over how good a team they play in the finals is...and at least some control over injuries.

All of this stuff factors into "the luck", but acting like it's not "lucky" for the 07 Spurs to face that Cavs and not the 08 Celtics...I just don't know what else you call it other than fortunate or lucky.

Just like it was "lucky" that the Warriors didn't have to face any of the elite teams at full strength last year. They had no control over the Cavs being a shell of the team they were in the finals.

[34-24 Footwork]

The concept of luck can be stretched waaaay too far to be a valid argument against success.

The eastern conference is lucky that the Memphis Grizzlies, Pelicans and all 3 Texas teams are in the western conference.

[ArbitraryWater]

But a team doesn't control who they play....for the most part at least. The 08 Lakers simply win the title with ease if they play the 07 Cavs. Same thing with the 06 Mavs.

How is it injuries almost only? You have more control over injuries and how you prepare/prevent them as a team/player than you do how good the Eastern champion is for example...

Which is to say...a team has no control over how good a team they play in the finals is...and at least some control over injuries.

All of this stuff factors into "the luck", but acting like it's not "lucky" for the 07 Spurs to face that Cavs and not the 08 Celtics...I just don't know what else you call it other than fortunate or lucky.

Just like it was "lucky" that the Warriors didn't have to face any of the elite teams at full strength last year. They had no control over the Cavs being a shell of the team they were in the finals.

I dont see that as luck at all, sorry, yeah, the point you mention IS injuries, of course thats lucky..

Im not gonna go into a different universe and say they were lucky to avoid or play a team that didnt even exist in the league that year. You play what you can play. Nobody says all the 70+ something champions in league history are automatically the 70+ best teams to have ever existed.

[Dresta]

At least half would be my estimate. It's impossible to quantify, but it undeniably plays a huge role.

[Giaodollo]

How long is a rope?

[konex]

Luck has very little to do with it IMO. With 82 games and 7-game series, the best team in basketball usually wins.

Unlike baseball or hockey, basketball playoffs aren't fluky. Also it's not like the NCAA tournament or NFL playoffs where it's one and done.

It's rare to see a surprise champion in basketball but it happens frequently in other sports. So how can luck be a huge factor? :confusedshrug:

[Sarcastic]

42

[SCdac]

you gotta define "luck" before you can even get into this discussion imo

also gotta be able to differentiate between "luck" and circumstance I think, which is difficult because it's blurry

the conditions of the league, or perhaps a team or player, over a period of time is circumstance. There are good circumstances (facing weaker competition, having a generous owner and GM, etc) and there are bad circumstances (being in a tough conference, having poor scouting and management).

luck, imo, refers to something happening (or not happening) by a remote chance, ala winning the lottery with empirically poor odds. Or, hitting a highly difficult or 'improbable' shot.

Again, we're dealing with professionals so what's improbable and probable is kinda blurry. Is a professional ball player (versus the average human) hitting a half court NBA shot truly "luck"? idk. I guess it is. When the "best team" loses to the "worst team" in any given sport, is that luck? Idk. I don't think so. On the contrary, who wins defines who the best team is.

Playing "what if this happened instead of that" can be tricky because it's an endless loop of what if's. "What if this player was subbed in for this player at that minute while that player was on fire and that player didn't have an ankle sprain ... and yadda yadda yadda"