The Hurdles for Bernie

[FillJackson]

Bernie did very well in Iowa and killed in New Hampshire, but actually Clinton took more delegates of New Hampshire than Bernie. This is because of the Democratic super-delegates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016), Clinton has a big lead in super-delegates. More than half have already pledged for her.

So the total delegate count so far is.

Clinton 394
Sanders 42
Needed to win 2,382

The other hurdle for Bernie is that he does well in states where the Democratic voters are both white and liberal. Iowa and New Hampshire are two such states.

The states with these demographics are not that populous. The biggest one is NY. In fact Iowa and NH are two of the three best states for Sanders, VT is the other one. The next time Sanders faces another state like this is on Super Tuesday. Of the 13 states on Super Tuesday only two far into this category of states favorable for Bernie.

Super Tuesday
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Wyoming

So if he is truly showing momentum and can truly challenge for the nomination, he is going to have to do well in these other states.

So by March 2 we'll have a good idea of the true state of the race.

[He Strong]

Pisses me off. Should be a straight up population count.

[Take Your Lumps]

Everyone is talking about how Bernie beat Hillary with women voters by 11%, and yeah, that's very impressive.

But with all this talk about how he's WAY behind with minority voters...he actually WON the non-white vote in New Hampshire. I know there aren't exactly a huge amount of non-white voters in NH, but still...that has to be a great sign for his campaign heading south.

[He Strong]

Everyone is talking about how Bernie beat Hillary with women voters by 11%, and yeah, that's very impressive.

But with all this talk about how he's WAY behind with minority voters...he actually WON the non-white vote in New Hampshire. I know there aren't exactly a huge amount of non-white voters in NH, but still...that has to be a great sign for his campaign heading south.
How is he behind non-white votes? This makes no sense.

[Nick Young]

His main hurdle is the unrealistic things he promises and the fact that he's a commie

[Nanners]

the primary system ****ing sucks. living in oregon i basically get zero say in the nominees since it will be locked up by the time our primary happens. the primary should happen nationwide on the same day.

[FillJackson]

Pisses me off. Should be a straight up population count.
Well it prevents someone like Trump from hijacking the party infrastucture.

[Take Your Lumps]

How is he behind non-white votes? This makes no sense.

Nobody knows who he is. That changes as elections get closer and they spend a ton of $$ on ad buys.

[He Strong]

His main hurdle is the unrealistic things he promises and the fact that he's a commie
Socialist.

[FillJackson]

How is he behind non-white votes? This makes no sense.
How many non-white political voices do you follow?

[NumberSix]

The un-Democratic Party.

[He Strong]

How many non-white political voices do you follow?
Huh? Are you talking about non-white politicians or voters? Your phrasing is odd in the context of what I was talking about.

[BoutPractice]

It used to be that Bernie's supporters were the white males (the so-called Bernie Bros)... Now he's won the female vote in New Hampshire.

So it bears asking: are his supporters really just white liberals, as opposed to a broader coalition in the process of forming?

If Hillary's only defense against Bernie is the minority vote, then she's a very vulnerable candidate indeed.

Three big questions her campaign should be asking:

- Hillary lost in 2008 in part because of minority votes going to Obama (which wasn't a given - if identity politics were all that counted in politics, Hillary would always win among female voters). Are we to believe those same minority voters who rejected her in 2008 have now become so loyal to Clinton that they'll support her no matter what?

- What has Hillary done to deserve the minority vote specifically? Among other things, she supported mass incarceration in the 1990s and had her campaign handlers launch a number of race-tinged attacks against Obama, some of which would be re-used by the far right throughout his presidency.

- Why is the guy who supported civil rights movements in the 1960s, was one of a few white politicians to support Jesse Jackson in 1988, campaigns with Killer Mike and Cornel West, and is endorsed by a former NAACP president painted in the media as some kind of white supremacist... someone who could never, ever have any appeal to nonwhite voters? Isn't there something a bit... odd in that narrative, making it the kind of narrative that won't survive contact with reality?

Now, I understand all of those points have more to do with the black vote, and not the latino vote which seems more likely to go to Hillary even if Sanders continues making progress. Still, my gut is, the all-minority strategy won't stick. If she wants to win, Clinton needs to go brutally negative on Sanders and stop his momentum on a more general level instead of trying to protect her lead with minorities.

One thing is for sure: there'll be a lot of pandering to minorities in weeks to come... Expect a lot of cringeworthy moments.

[FillJackson]

Huh? Are you talking about non-white politicians or voters? Your phrasing is odd in the context of what I was talking about.
I'm talking voices: politicians, pundits, writers, activists, etc.


I follow a few and their distrust of Bernie and moreso " the professional left " is pretty significant and longstanding.

[He Strong]

Hillary is playing it safe. She wants to be president for herself. She doesn't care about what is best for the country, just her own ego. This is one thing that puts Bernie way above her. I don't know how other dems don't see this.

[DeuceWallaces]

Everyone is talking about how Bernie beat Hillary with women voters by 11%, and yeah, that's very impressive.

But with all this talk about how he's WAY behind with minority voters...he actually WON the non-white vote in New Hampshire. I know there aren't exactly a huge amount of non-white voters in NH, but still...that has to be a great sign for his campaign heading south.

No, he lost it. By 1 point, but he lost it. Going to be hard for him to survive the south.

[BoutPractice]

Fundamentals are more important than a snapshot of the polls.

(In the beginning, polls said Sanders would get crushed by 40 points in NH)

On fundamentals, I just don't see why Sanders should be the white-only candidate. It doesn't make any sense, if you actually think about it... Strikes me as that sort of "received wisdom" that rests on nothing concrete.

[DeuceWallaces]

Well, he needs to set up a minority agenda beyond just incarceration.

[He Strong]

I'm talking voices: politicians, pundits, writers, activists, etc.


I follow a few and their distrust of Bernie and moreso " the professional left " is pretty significant and longstanding.
Ok. My point was he seems to be the best option for speaking up for non-whites, which is why I question why they don't support him more.

[TheMan]

I can't speak for all Latinos obviously but I believe Bernie will make major inroads on Hillary's hold on the minority vote. His message is resonating, as people get to know his past and refusal to be a Corporate America puppet, the more in contrast he will be with the establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton. Bernie has a legit chance in defeating her, I've no doubt about that.

[Draz]

I can't speak for all Latinos obviously but I believe Bernie will make major inroads on Hillary's hold on the minority vote. His message is resonating, as people get to know his past and refusal to be a Corporate America puppet, the more in contrast he will be with the establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton. Bernie has a legit chance in defeating her, I've no doubt about that.
I believe he already has more women voters compared to Clinton which is shocking.. 11%

[FillJackson]

Fundamentals are more important than a snapshot of the polls.

(In the beginning, polls said Sanders would get crushed by 40 points in NH)

On fundamentals, I just don't see why Sanders should be the white-only candidate. It doesn't make any sense, if you actually think about it... Strikes me as that sort of "received wisdom" that rests on nothing concrete.
Fundamentals? Like low-post footwork?

[Jameerthefear]

both bernie and hillary are lousy candidates for blacks to be honest.

[Take Your Lumps]

No, he lost it. By 1 point, but he lost it. Going to be hard for him to survive the south.

I was looking here:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/nh/Dem

3rd data set from the top. Are there other numbers other than these exit polls?

Definitely will be tougher in the south.

[bladefd]

Bernie did very well in Iowa and killed in New Hampshire, but actually Clinton took more delegates of New Hampshire than Bernie. This is because of the Democratic super-delegates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016), Clinton has a big lead in super-delegates. More than half have already pledged for her.

So the total delegate count so far is.

Clinton 394
Sanders 42
Needed to win 2,382

The other hurdle for Bernie is that he does well in states where the Democratic voters are both white and liberal. Iowa and New Hampshire are two such states.


I disagree with counting superdelegates yet alongside normal delegates. While majority of superdelegates are pledged to Hillary, they are not committed to her. Commitments will be after the primaries/caucuses.

It would split the party in half just before the general election if the superdelegates stayed with Hillary even if the public/normal delegates voted for Bernie after primaries/caucuses. Interesting point I read is that Bloomberg is waiting for something like that to happen. He can swoop in and take Bernie's votes along with many independents. That would destroy Hillary instantly and the entire democratic party overnight. Republicans would suddenly become the favorites. You think the superdelegates don't know that?

In the end, whoever wins normal delegates will win superdelegates too. Otherwise, it is political suicide with democratic party risking the Republicans or independent Bloomberg winning (most likely the Republicans). For now, only count regular delegates.

Sanders - 36
Clinton - 32

[He Strong]

both bernie and hillary are lousy candidates for blacks to be honest.
Either are better than Trump. Trump went at Mexicans than Muslims, blacks are next.

[DeuceWallaces]

I was looking here:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/nh/Dem

3rd data set from the top. Are there other numbers other than these exit polls?

Definitely will be tougher in the south.

There are the actual votes. She took minorities by one point.

[Dave3]

I'm talking voices: politicians, pundits, writers, activists, etc.


I follow a few and their distrust of Bernie and moreso " the professional left " is pretty significant and longstanding.
Nina Turner, Killer Mike, heck even Tanehisi Coates said he's voting for him today. That's just off the top of my head. That angry guy too that's religious and talks like a preacher.

[Bay Area Baller]

What if Bernie became president. Advanced analytics think it would look something like this.




http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--X94XMB-X--/18u2bc2ytborxjpg.jpg

http://cdn.acidcow.com/gifs/20150826/gifs_20.gif

[FillJackson]

Nina Turner, Killer Mike, heck even Tanehisi Coates said he's voting for him today. That's just off the top of my head. That angry guy too that's religious and talks like a preacher.*
Al Sharpton too as of today (announced after NH) yeah some black people will vote for him, the majority will not. No group all votes the same way as I'm sure you understand.

If I could summarize the argument I'm seeing: They understand that Clinton is running to extend Obama's legacy which they see as significant and hard fought. They see Bernie and the left's as undercutting the Democratic party which they believe is the best vehicle for black political power. They see the purity of the left as a luxury they can't afford and they are willing to accept something that is good but not perfect and they are unwilling to reject it because it's not perfect and pure. Specifically they have been upset when Bernie criticizes the past 8 years using some of the same terms you'd see on Fox News. (This was in regards to unemployment.) The politics of the possible is important. They realize that the choice in the 1990s was not between Bill Clinton and a better Democrat, it was between Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich.

*That angry guy called Obama a house slave, also he is not just a supporter of Sanders, he is a surrogate. And they cite that as a specific example of tone-deafness.

Supposedly a good part of why he is pissed at Obama was he didn't get inauguration tickets.

I have never heard of Nina Turner.

[FillJackson]

I disagree with counting superdelegates yet alongside normal delegates.
That's great, but it's not how you become the nominee.


While majority of superdelegates are pledged to Hillary, they are not committed to her. Commitments will be after the primaries/caucuses.

It would split the party in half just before the general election if the superdelegates stayed with Hillary even if the public/normal delegates voted for Bernie after primaries/caucuses. You are right that things could change, but basically since super delegates were introduced the winner of the popular vote has always also gotten the most superdelegates. Since Bernie only became a Democrat in 2015, it would be interesting to see this play out if were to win the popular vote.


Interesting point I read is that Bloomberg is waiting for something like that to happen. He can swoop in and take Bernie's votes along with many independents. That would destroy Hillary instantly and the entire democratic party overnight. Republicans would suddenly become the favorites. You think the superdelegates don't know that?

In the end, whoever wins normal delegates will win superdelegates too. Otherwise, it is political suicide with democratic party risking the Republicans or independent Bloomberg winning (most likely the Republicans). For now, only count regular delegates.

Sanders - 36
Clinton - 32Bloomberg has indicated he would run if it's Trump and Sanders. So he won't be taking any votes from Hillary.

So if you discount the superdelegates the point of the thread still stands. 2 of Bernie's three most favorable states have voted and he's just ahead of Clinton. He's going to need another jump ahead to compete in March.

[bladefd]

That's great, but it's not how you become the nominee.

You are right that things could change, but basically since super delegates were introduced the winner of the popular vote has always also gotten the most superdelegates. Since Bernie only became a Democrat in 2015, it would be interesting to see this play out if were to win the popular vote.

Bloomberg has indicated he would run if it's Trump and Sanders. So he won't be taking any votes from Hillary.

So if you discount the superdelegates the point of the thread still stands. 2 of Bernie's three most favorable states have voted and he's just ahead of Clinton. He's going to need another jump ahead to compete in March.

You misunderstood my point and the scenario. You are right that superdelegates are necessary to be nominated. I was not debating that.

My point was simply that lets say Bernie wins popular vote by 25 normal delegates. Then super delegates decide to go with Hillary and put her over the top. That is political suicide because now you undermine your public support. In such a scenario, the Bernie voters would suddenly pull back thinking their voice was undermined, and nomination was already decided.

That is when the party would split and lets say Hillary is nominated even with popular support going to Bernie, Bernie supporters would lose trust in Democrat committee. That is where Bloomberg can sweep right in, take Bernie's votes in general election and some independents. It won't happen where the superdelegates would go against popular vote.

Of course, none of this matters if Hillary dominates popular vote rest of the way. Bernie will need to somehow convince the southern states. It might be time for him to shift gears a bit to get into general election form by maybe finding a way to draw some moderates and independents. Without support of moderates/independents, Bernie is in massive trouble.