Golden Ages Of Basketball Players

[jongib369]

The simple rule of life: everything arises, improves, declines and ends. Both the living creatures and all the processes around obey this rule. The basketball players’ career trajectory is not different at all. They enter the league as rookies, they adapt and improve their plays physically, mentally and even in terms of abilities, but then someday a decrease of performance begins due to advanced age and finally they quit the professional basketball.

The age (so the experience) is a very important factor to precise the performance levels of players in all physical sports. For example when a team drafts some young prospect, they sometimes leave this player overseas or send it to D-League with the aim of finding greater opportunity to develop himself by playing in relatively low level.

Or when a player gets older and his performance drops, teams choose to waive/amnesty/send him away. The question is when does the prime of a basketball player begin? It lasts how many years? And does it differentiate according to basketball positions? These questions are important because they define the GMs’ strategies in terms of contract negotiations, drafts, trades and all other player involved decisions.
In this analysis, we will scrutiny the relationship between the performance and age of NBA players starting by the season 1997-98. For performance, we are using an in-game efficiency score metric calculated using seasonal total player stats with the following formula: PTS+(FGM-FGA)+(FTM-FTA)+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO. Then, we found the average of each player’s efficiency score per game played. The playing time is also an important factor. So, we also looked to the per 36 minutes efficiency score. Finally, if the total matches played of that age group of players are below %10 of maximum match played age group, then it is excluded from the graphics, as they can’t provide reliable statistical data.
Age vs. Efficiency

The following table summarizes players’ average stats and efficiency scores grouping by the age factor. The ages of 19, 39, 40 and 41 are excluded due to small number of games played by players of that age.

Just note that, regarding the last 17 NBA seasons, the youngest player’s age is 19 (Tracy McGrady in 1997-98 with Toronto Raptors) and the oldest one is 41 (Karl Malone, 2003-04, Lakers; John Stockton, 2002-03, Jazz; Dikembe Mutombo 2006-07, Rockets; Kevin Willis 2002-03, Spurs and Clifford Robinson, 2006-07, Nets).

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/1.png

The age – efficiency score curve can be depicted such as:

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2.png

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/3.png

We are seeing that 29 years old is the most efficient age in NBA basketball. And the prime years for a players are between 26-29 years old. A clear performance drop can be seen starting by age 31, and 22 years old is the starting point to play effectively.

Interestingly, there is an unexpected rise of performance after 36 years old. But this is due to the fact that, at such age, regular players quit playing and mostly star or superstar level players try to continue their careers. Some examples players who remain in the league after 37 years old are Karl Malone, Tim Duncan, John Stockton, Steve Nash, Patrick Ewing, Jason Kidd, Shaquille O’Neal, Grant Hill, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Scottie Pippen, Reggie Miller, Kevin Garnett etc. In per 36 min stats, the performance drop after age 30 is more evident since this graphic omits the effect of better players staying more on court.

Does the Position Matter?

Let’s look at the same age vs. efficiency graphs according to the basketball positions: guard, guard-forwards, forwards, forward-centers and centers.

GUARDS:

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/4.png

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/5.png

We are seeing that the prime years of guards is 28-32 years old interval. This shows that guards mature a little bit later than other players. The basketball intelligence, ball conservation, court vision, shot mechanics are all skill peculiar mainly to the guards and correlated with experience. On the other hand, per 36 minutes graph indicates another aspect: guards are also very effective at younger ages (23-25) but their playing time are limited comparing to later ages.

GUARD – FORWARDS:

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/6.png

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/7.png

22-23 and 27-29 years interval are the most effective ones for guard-forwards. Since the athleticism (quickness, endurance and explosiveness) is a very important part of this position, 22-23 years old period makes an unexpected outlier. But note also that overall efficiency score averages of those position players are the least across all other positions’.

FORWARDS:

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/8.png

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/9.png


This graph is very similar to the first one (all positions overall graph). Thus, the prime ages of forwards are 26-29 years old, and the performance level drops after age 30.

FORWARD – CENTERS:

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/10.png

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/11.png

Here are the most unexpected age-efficiency graphs. But of course for good reason. If we omit the age 21, we can interpret that the prime years for this position is 26-29 and there are a continuous drop of performance afterwards.

But why the age 21 is an outlier? Because there are relatively few number of players in this categories and most of them enters the league at age 22 or later. But some special talented ones enter the league one or two years earlier: Anthony Davis, Chris Bosh, Amar’e Stoudemire, Kevin Love, Greg Monroe, Nene and Serge Ibaka. Pretty elite group of players huh?

[jongib369]

CENTERS

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/12.png

http://www.nbaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/13.png

[B]For centers, there are many zigzag patterns in the graphs, but we are seeing that the prime years are longer than any other position (between 26-34 years old). We can say that for centers the size and power or the two important factors that do not disappear at early 30s.

[I]What about Best performers

[references]

respect that you took time to make this thread showing that this site does not have to be filled with morons

[jongib369]

respect that you took time to make this thread showing that this site does not have to be filled with morons

:lol

Didn't write it, got it from an article on this website. Their advanced assist date, among other things are very interesting to look at

http://www.nbaminer.com/golden-ages-of-basketball-players/

Prediction History (http://www.nbaminer.com/daily-summary/)

Prediction Archive (http://www.nbaminer.com/daily-archive/)

Assist Details (http://www.nbaminer.com/player-assist-details/)

[references]

:lol

Didn't write it, got it from an article on this website. Their advanced assist date, among other things are very interesting to look at

http://www.nbaminer.com/golden-ages-of-basketball-players/

Prediction History (http://www.nbaminer.com/daily-summary/)

Prediction Archive (http://www.nbaminer.com/daily-archive/)

Assist Details (http://www.nbaminer.com/player-assist-details/)
formatting the thread is enough mental effort. takes more brains than the always exciting comparison and agenda threads that plague this place

[pastis]

thx dude! :applause: :applause:

[feyki]

Thanks for sharing .

22 to 32 prime years . 24-28 peak years . But for Karl Malone it's 32-35 :D .

[swagga]

Thanks for sharing .

22 to 32 prime years . 24-28 peak years . But for Karl Malone it's 32-35 :D .

with that body of his it ain't hard to see how he could benefit from the improved skills and knowledge that come with time. this goes especially for bigs, who are more time limited than the rest of the players (injuries, more stress on the body, more contact in the post)

[feyki]

with that body of his it ain't hard to see how he could benefit from the improved skills and knowledge that come with time. this goes especially for bigs, who are more time limited than the rest of the players (injuries, more stress on the body, more contact in the post)

Actually , that's about playing style . Wing players usually struggle their body and they can't stay healthy after their 32 . Karl,Duncan,Kareem,Pau , all of them are/were keep in routine playing and them protect their body form with good training , life style . Jordan was amazing athlete . But we know his last year . At his 34 age , He struggled more than 36 years old Karl or 37 years old Kareem/Duncan . Wings must play with high energy . Drives,transitions , perimeter and more active defence . Playmakers and bigs , who playing with fundamental than athleticism , more comfortably on the court when getting older .

Karl Malone stayed healthy and protected his form . And NBA was soft in the late 90's . If Karl did those ( 2 finals , 2 mvp , 3 top 2 mvp in three consecutive year ) in strong NBA . Probably , we would talking about " Is Karl top 10 all time " .

[rmt]

According to this graph, Duncan's per 36 efficiency between 23 and 29 for his whole career - consistent excellence :applause: .

[Chadwin]

thanks, good stuff