Win Shares and MVP

[SamuraiSWISH]

Is there a connection? How much value do you put in this advanced stat? Looking at the history of the league leader in WS, it might be a better non biased indicator of who was regular season MVP. Since 1985

85: Bird 15.7
86: Bird 15.8
87: MJ 16.9
88: MJ 21.2
89: MJ 19.8
90: MJ 19.0
91: MJ 20.3
92: MJ 17.7
93: MJ 17.2
94: D-Rob 20.0
95: D-Rob 17.5
96: MJ 20.4
97: MJ 18.3
98: Karl 16.4
99: Karl 9.6
00: Shaq 18.6
01: Shaq 14.9
02: Duncan 17.8
03: Duncan 16.5
04: KG 18.3
05: KG 16.1
06: Dirk 17.7
07: Dirk 16.3
08: CP3 17.8
09: LeBron 20.3
10: LeBron 18.5
11: LeBron 15.6
12: LeBron 14.5
13: LeBron 19.3
14: KD 19.2
15: Harden 16.4
16: Curry 14.1

[Lebron23]

I agree.

[Gileraracer]

This list is accurate but

15: Harden

definitely no MVP last year, Curry was way better.

[SamuraiSWISH]

This list is accurate but

15: Harden

definitely no MVP last year, Curry was way better.
I think there was a very strong argument for Harden.

[pastis]

Is there a connection? How much value do you put in this advanced stat? Looking at the history of the league leader in WS, it might be a better non biased indicator of who was regular season MVP. Since 1985

85: Bird 15.7
86: Bird 15.8
87: MJ 16.9
88: MJ 21.2
89: MJ 19.8
90: MJ 19.0
91: MJ 20.3
92: MJ 17.7
93: MJ 17.2
94: D-Rob 20.0
95: D-Rob 17.5
96: MJ 20.4
97: MJ 18.3
98: Karl 16.4
99: Karl 9.6
00: Shaq 18.6
01: Shaq 14.9
02: Duncan 17.8
03: Duncan 16.5
04: KG 18.3
05: KG 16.1
06: Dirk 17.7
07: Dirk 16.3
08: CP3 17.8
09: LeBron 20.3
10: LeBron 18.5
11: LeBron 15.6
12: LeBron 14.5
13: LeBron 19.3
14: KD 19.2
15: Harden 16.4
16: Curry 14.1

this list reflects my opinion for every year regarding the question who should have won MVP

[Derivative]

lol no Kobe

[ArbitraryWater]

Always said Win-Shares is a pretty good indicator for BITW.

Obviously not always, nothing is, but its pretty consistent, especially as far as MVP goes, since we have cases of players outshining the rest in the regular season, doing the most under the circumstances, but another still holding the total package over him, and being more of use in the playoffs, hence making him better overall (2008, 2014). WS doesn't know that, obviously, but it still gets right the MVP candidates those years.

[Nikola_]

Literally no advanced stat gives love to kobe...:biggums:
except FGx/48

[tmacattack33]

Not bad except for Harden.

Although, offensively, you can certainly argue for Harden in 2015. And this stat probably doesn't have much defense included in it...as there are no good defensive stats really anyway.

[DMAVS41]

I think there was a very strong argument for Harden.

Yea...people have forgotten just how good Harden was last year and just what a different Curry we are seeing this year.

[WayOfWade]

Literally no advanced stat gives love to kobe...:biggums:
except FGx/48
Which advanced stat actually favors him? Because I haven't seen one

[SugarHill]

Yea...people have forgotten just how good Harden was last year and just what a different Curry we are seeing this year.
Harden himself is playing incredible right now too. His team isn't.

[pastis]

Literally no advanced stat gives love to kobe...:biggums:
except FGx/48

LOL. :lol

even defensive WS Dirk is comfortably ahead of Kobe :bowdown:

[swagga]

I think there was a very strong argument for Harden.

if defense isn't considered a part of the game then yes.
what kind of argument can you make when the best rockets ball in the last playoffs was played with harden on the bench? and this season is just further proof. Great stats are pointless without defense, if you look at rockets basketball you can see just HOW MUCH harden compromises the defense, they have to rotate a lot and this demotivates the entire team. If you look at how many points the rockets let because of harden and you subtract this from what harden produces on offense you get a net positive player, but not a superstar.

Harden being the MVP just show how low the NBA is right now in terms of TRUE starpower (peak kobe/ peak lebron / peak jordan/ peak shaq / peak duncan / etc), we only got an older lebron and curry going apeshit on offense but playing mediocre d (anybody comparing him to a peak top 10 GOAT is smoking the good shit tbh)

[Fallen Angel]

http://i.cdn.turner.com/nba/nba/teamsites/images/legacy/suns/nash_0506mvp_index.jpg

[kuniva_dAMiGhTy]

Save for a couple minor changes, this does look pretty accurate.

Still not a huge proponent of winshares though. Too much emphasis on team play and not enough data to separate itself from said individual. RPM is better in my opinion, which takes into account minutes, roles, rosters, competition, defense etc. The only 'advanced' stat I use besides PER maybe, which just adds up your positives.

[VICEVERSA]

lol lebron is the real mvp

[tmacattack33]

if defense isn't considered a part of the game then yes.
what kind of argument can you make when the best rockets ball in the last playoffs was played with harden on the bench? and this season is just further proof. Great stats are pointless without defense, if you look at rockets basketball you can see just HOW MUCH harden compromises the defense, they have to rotate a lot and this demotivates the entire team. If you look at how many points the rockets let because of harden and you subtract this from what harden produces on offense you get a net positive player, but not a superstar.

Harden being the MVP just show how low the NBA is right now in terms of TRUE starpower (peak kobe/ peak lebron / peak jordan/ peak shaq / peak duncan / etc), we only got an older lebron and curry going apeshit on offense but playing mediocre d (anybody comparing him to a peak top 10 GOAT is smoking the good shit tbh)

Nah, this sounds like the entirely wrong "defense is half the game" argument.

For an individual player, their defense is only 20% (1 out of 5) of their team's defense.

But on offense, since the offensive team gets to call their own plays and do what they want, the star player can be up to 60% of the team's offense. And the Rockets do in fact have Harden touch the ball on damn near every set play.



An exception here is a paint defending center like Anthony Davis or Nerlens Noel, who can disrupt like half of the offensive team's drives to the hoops. Their defense can be worth more than 20%.

[soots]

I think there was a very strong argument for Harden.
This. I had Harden as MVP over Curry last year.

Harden declined sharply and Currys on god mode now. Totally different from last year.

[LAZERUSS]

Using that advanced stat...and it confirms what I already knew...

that Chamberlain should have won the MVP in '62 and '64.

'60: Wilt 17.01, Russell next at 13.84... Wilt MVP
'61: Wilt 18.83, Russell at 14.93 ... Russell MVP
'62: Wilt 23.11, Bellamy at 16.35, Russell 4th at 15.49...Russell MVP
'63: Wilt 20.94, Oscar at 16.80, Russell 7th at 13.51...Russell MVP
'64: Wilt 24.98, Oscar 20.65... Oscar MVP
'65: Oscar 16.95, Russell 16.87, Wilt 4th 15.09... Russell MVP
'66: Wilt 21.43, West 17.13... Wilt MVP
'67: Wilt: 21.87, Oscar 17.42... Wilt MVP
'68: Wilt 20.38, Oscar 12.32... Wilt MVP
'69: Reed 14.69, Wilt 14.66, Unseld 8th at 10.82... Unseld MVP

A post-surgery Wilt was still a major factor afterwards, as well...

'70: Wilt missed nearly entire season, West 15.15, Reed 3rd at 14.64...Reed MVP

'71: Alcindor (Kareem) 22.31, Frazier 15.62, Wilt 4th at 13.61...Alcindor MVP
'72: Kareem 25.37, Wilt 2nd at 15.84...Kareem MVP
'73: Kareem 21.86, Wilt 2nd at 18.20, Cowens 6th at 11.96...Cowens MVP


'69 was interesting from the fact that Wilt led his team to a better record than Reed and Russell; had a better H2H W-L record against Reed and Russell, and was tied with Unseld (3-3); and slaughtered all three in their individual H2H's...and yet, Unseld won the MVP, Reed finished 2nd, Cunningham 3rd, Russell 4th, and Baylor 5th (despite being nowhere near LA's best player)...and Wilt was nowhere to be found.

In any case, Chamberlain had an argument as the best player in the league every season in the entire decade of the 60's...and was voted MVP in '60, '66, '67, and '68. And he should have won the MVP going away in both '62 and '64.

[SouBeachTalents]

Besides KG in '05 the list does seem pretty legit. If not so much the true MVP, someone who had s strong argument for it. It is crazy KG led the league in WS in '05 on a team that won 44 games

[feyki]

Probably best advanced metric in others . But it under valued playmaking and overrate rebounding on defence . Bigs always have better defensive impacts on that metric .

[LAZERUSS]

Besides KG in '05 the list does seem pretty legit. If not so much the true MVP, someone who had s strong argument for it. It is crazy KG led the league in WS in '05 on a team that won 44 games

Similar to Wilt's '63 season. He ran away with the WS mark, at 20.9...and his team went 31-49. Of course, he led the league in 15 categories, including ppg (by a mile), rpg, FG%...and even set the PER record of 31.8 (which Curry is on pace to break at 32.2.)

[swagga]

Nah, this sounds like the entirely wrong "defense is half the game" argument.

For an individual player, their defense is only 20% (1 out of 5) of their team's defense.

But on offense, since the offensive team gets to call their own plays and do what they want, the star player can be up to 60% of the team's offense. And the Rockets do in fact have Harden touch the ball on damn near every set play.



An exception here is a paint defending center like Anthony Davis or Nerlens Noel, who can disrupt like half of the offensive team's drives to the hoops. Their defense can be worth more than 20%.

:roll: son wtf did I just read? are you even familiar with how this sport is played?

It's enough for one player on the team to be weak defensively, he'll be ruthlessly targeted by the other offense. This player's bad defense will make his team rotate more, which will lead to open shots and a bad defense. Look at kevin love, the warriors KILLED the cavs because of him in the pnr. It was a fcking clinic.

NBA defenses are particularly prone to weak spots. Remember the heat?, yes that fcking STACKED team with a weak center. Remember how much they had to run and switch because they had nobody good at center? Remember how that running taxed the living shit out of the team, and how they got injured really fast?

And i'm talking here about guys that are actually trying to play D .. harden is fcking cancer to a team. He exposes the defense, overstretches teammates assignments, alienates teammates and creates resent in the lockerroom, and still thinks he is the shit because he has the ball in his hand 24/7. The very definition of bad basketball. But these days the casuals like you will eat up anything the league throws at them.

20% of defense, lol son, that's some :biggums: :biggums: :biggums: reasoning. One of the most pathetic serious posts I've ever read, thanks for the lols :applause: Seriously, that was some hilarious shit.

Real talk, are you even 15?

[Magic 32]

Detlef Schrempf, Dana Barros, Reggie Miller, and John Stockton were all ahead of Hakeem in win shares in 1995.

[Stu Jackson]

hows it going coach :lol

[dubnation]

Given that the MVP a single season regular season award, and so it won't always (and shouldn't) match up with who the best player is overall (including the playoffs), win shares look like a great way to predict who should win.

[SamuraiSWISH]

if defense isn't considered a part of the game then yes.
But if that's the case then Curry wasn't MVP last year or this year. And Magic, Nash, and Dirk would never even be considered MVP caliber either. They were all on Harden's pathetic level of defense. What Harden did with an injured Rockets team last year offensively on his own was very cleary MVP caliber.

[SamuraiSWISH]

Besides playoff performance as a totally separate entity which can change the picture entirely as apart of the whole season, and besides certain contextual differences of performance as a defender. Win Share does seem pretty accurate in determining each specific season's MVP.

[Marchesk]

Wilt led the league in Win Shares eight times, and Jordan nine.

One can certainly argued that both got short changed on MVP trophies.

[feyki]

Wilt led the league in Win Shares eight times, and Jordan nine.

One can certainly argued that both got short changed on MVP trophies.

Also Kareem .

[ArbitraryWater]

But if that's the case then Curry wasn't MVP last year or this year. And Magic, Nash, and Dirk would never even be considered MVP caliber either. They were all on Harden's pathetic level of defense. What Harden did with an injured Rockets team last year offensively on his own was very cleary MVP caliber.

what

[DatAsh]

But if that's the case then Curry wasn't MVP last year or this year. And Magic, Nash, and Dirk would never even be considered MVP caliber either. They were all on Harden's pathetic level of defense. What Harden did with an injured Rockets team last year offensively on his own was very cleary MVP caliber.

Curry and Dirk are both good - not great - defenders though. I'd rate them both a few levels above average. Nash wasn't a bad defender either in my opinion. I see him as close to average.

[InsanityKills]

List confirms, 12be was gifted an MVP.:lol :lol

[Magic 32]

List confirms, 12be was gifted an MVP.:lol :lol

Did the playoffs confirm it?

Or was Paul only valuable when it didn't matter?

[pastis]

But if that's the case then Curry wasn't MVP last year or this year. And Magic, Nash, and Dirk would never even be considered MVP caliber either. They were all on Harden's pathetic level of defense. What Harden did with an injured Rockets team last year offensively on his own was very cleary MVP caliber.

what are you talking? Dirk is top 30 all time defensive win shares - in front of Kobe.
Dirk was a well above average defender from 2004-2012 and finished multiple times among the best big man defender in the league. he always was a good man to man defender against the bigs and a good rim protector in his prime.
do i say he was an an alltime level like KG or Duncan? hell no....but to put him in the same sentence with harden..... thats just silly and every stat proves it. EVEN TODAY AT 38 yeas old he is better defensivly than prime harden. let that sink

[tmacattack33]

what are you talking? Dirk is top 30 all time defensive win shares - in front of Kobe.
Dirk was a well above average defender from 2004-2012 and finished multiple times among the best big man defender in the league. he always was a good man to man defender against the bigs and a good rim protector in his prime.

Dirk was average at best on defense. Please.

Way better than Harden though.

[pastis]

Curry and Dirk are both good - not great - defenders though. I'd rate them both a few levels above average. Nash wasn't a bad defender either in my opinion. I see him as close to average.

this. i didnt look at the stats for curry. but regarding dirk: the stats and eye test are proving exactly this

[feyki]

Curry and Dirk are both good - not great - defenders though. I'd rate them both a few levels above average. Nash wasn't a bad defender either in my opinion. I see him as close to average.

Nash was bad defender . But i don't think Magic,Dirk and Curry are/were bad defenders .

[IllegalD]

Kobe was the leader in playoff Win-Shares on the historic 2001 team that only lost once in the playoffs... You know, where it really matters

http://www.basketball-reference.com/..._yearly_p.html

THREAD BACKFIRE on the LeBron Stanleys! :roll:

If Win Shares is so important than it proves that Kobe was the best player on the Lakers in 2001 in the playoffs (not Shaq).

GOAT status confirmed! :banana:

[Ranked 12th]

Kobe was the leader in playoff Win-Shares on the historic 2001 team that only lost once in the playoffs... You know, where it really matters



And he WASNT in 2010 you autistic recluse :oldlol:


So we're not counting that 2010 ring ok?

[Magic 32]

And he WASNT in 2010 you autistic recluse :oldlol:


So we're not counting that 2010 ring ok?

Are you counting 2001 as Kobe's ring?

[Ranked 12th]

Are you counting 2001 as Kobe's ring?

Nope, because I look at PER instead, its a more accurate measure





And Kobe only led a championship team once in PER (2009)


LeBron did twice (2012, 2013)


One of the reasons LeBron is already 9 spots ahead of Kobe all-time

[Kobe_6/8]

Doesn't win shares favor players with scrub teammates? Would KG still win in '04-'05 if he had a legit 2nd option?

[IllegalD]

Nope, because I look at PER instead, its a more accurate measure





And Kobe only led a championship team once in PER (2009)


LeBron did twice (2012, 2013)


One of the reasons LeBron is already 9 spots ahead of Kobe all-time


LOL, so now it's PER?

Make up your mind you pathetic, flip-flopping littke b*tch.

[Magic 32]

Nope, because I look at PER instead, its a more accurate measure





And Kobe only led a championship team once in PER (2009)


LeBron did twice (2012, 2013)


One of the reasons LeBron is already 9 spots ahead of Kobe all-time


So if someone leads their team in PER to more than 2 championships,they are better than Lebron?

Thanks for the tip psycho.

[IllegalD]

And he WASNT in 2010 you autistic recluse :oldlol:


So we're not counting that 2010 ring ok?

BTW, the irony of you calling someone a recluse. :lol

Everyone's seen your virgin face, and everyone knows how many alts you have.

You literally spend all your youth monitoring ISH 24/7 so you can post about a grown ass man who doesn't even know you exist.

:lol

[Magic 32]

BTW, the irony of you calling someone a recluse. :lol

Everyone's seen your virgin face, and everyone knows how many alts you have.

You literally spend all your youth monitoring ISH 24/7 so you can post about a grown ass man who doesn't even know you exist.

:lol

I almost feel bad for him.

All this to make the pain go away.

[SamuraiSWISH]

Curry and Dirk are both good - not great - defenders though. I'd rate them both a few levels above average. Nash wasn't a bad defender either in my opinion. I see him as close to average.
Well youre wither entirely too kind, have a blind eye, or way too low of standards.

Curry is hidden on defense, even against his position. Nash was even worse than Steph. And Dirk gets overrated by some delusional Maverick stans. All of tgem at absolute best are average.

Not good. Not game changers. None of them are threats as defenders. Harden I guess could be considered even lazier because unlike those guys who try ... He doesn't at all.

[Stu Jackson]

hey coach how are the chicago speed doing :lol