Do NBA teams suck at drafting - proof inside!

[90sgoat]

How many nr. 1 picks turned out franchise players in the last 20 years?

Since 1996, * denotes franchise player:

Iverson*
Duncan*
Olowokandi
Brand*
Kenyon Martin
Kwame Brown
Yao Ming*
Lebron*
Dwight*
Bogut
Bargnani
Oden
Rose*
Griffin*
Wall*
Irving
Davis*
Bennet
Wiggins
Towns

About half, 10/20, 11/21 if you include Towns.

That means even with a first pick your expectation of landing a franchise players is only 50%. Philly feels that the hard way, particularly when you draft like shit.

What about 2nd picks?

Since 1996, * denotes franchise player:

Camby
Van Horn
Bibby
Francis
Stromile Swift
Tyson Chandler
Jay Williams
Darko Milicic
Emeka Okafor
Marvin Williams
LMA*
Kevin Durant*
Beasley
Turner
Derrick Williams
MKG
Oladipo

2/20, 3/20 if you include Oladipo/Tyson Chandler which is stretching it.

What about 3rd picks?

Since 1996, * denotes franchise player:

Shareef Abdur Rahim*
Billups
LaFraentz
Baron Davis*
Darius Miles
Pau Gasol*
Dunleavy
Ben Gordon
Deron Williams*
Adam Morrison
Al Horford
OJ Mayo
Derrick Favors
Enes Kanter
Bradley Beal
Otto Porter

3/20, maybe 4-5 if we give Horfor and Favors the opportunity to grow.

In Total for top 3 picks, how many became franchise players?

16/60 - 19/60

27% - 32%

These stats are hugely misleading though as nr. 1 pick has a whopping 50% chance of landing a franchise player while pick 2 and 3 only has a 12.5% chance of landing a franchise player.

This clearly creates a strong incentive to optimize your odds for the nr. 1 pick which means being the worst team.

If - on the other hand - you make the lottery even for all non-playoff teams, you remove the incentive to tank for worst record.

We also have to see the bigger picture here.

Having a high draft pick simply is not valuable outside when there is a clear cut college standout. We're talking talent so great you can't miss it. Are there any of the franchise players picked one, who did not have a great college career or had such obvious athletic talent it was a no miss?

Nope any fool could pick AI from his Hoya career or pick Dwight or Yao.

That really proves that NBA teams are not really that good at drafting. It is all the more clear when you look at how cheaply teams like Warriors (Jerry West) and Spurs (Pop) picked their championship players.

[r15mohd]

How many nr. 1 picks turned out franchise players in the last 20 years?

Since 1996, * denotes franchise player:

Iverson*
Duncan*
Olowokandi
Brand*
Kenyon Martin
Kwame Brown
Yao Ming*
Lebron*
Dwight*
Bogut
Bargnani
Oden
Rose*
Griffin*
Wall*
Irving
Davis*
Bennet
Wiggins
Towns

About half, 10/20, 11/21 if you include Towns.

That means even with a first pick your expectation of landing a franchise players is only 50%. Philly feels that the hard way, particularly when you draft like shit.

What about 2nd picks?

Since 1996, * denotes franchise player:

Camby
Van Horn
Bibby
Francis
Stromile Swift
Tyson Chandler
Jay Williams
Darko Milicic
Emeka Okafor
Marvin Williams
LMA*
Kevin Durant*
Beasley
Turner
Derrick Williams
MKG
Oladipo

2/20, 3/20 if you include Oladipo/Tyson Chandler which is stretching it.

What about 3rd picks?

Since 1996, * denotes franchise player:

Shareef Abdur Rahim*
Billups
LaFraentz
Baron Davis*
Darius Miles
Pau Gasol*
Dunleavy
Ben Gordon
Deron Williams*
Adam Morrison
Al Horford
OJ Mayo
Derrick Favors
Enes Kanter
Bradley Beal
Otto Porter

3/20, maybe 4-5 if we give Horfor and Favors the opportunity to grow.

In Total for top 3 picks, how many became franchise players?

16/60 - 19/60

27% - 32%

These stats are hugely misleading though as nr. 1 pick has a whopping 50% chance of landing a franchise player while pick 2 and 3 only has a 12.5% chance of landing a franchise player.

This clearly creates a strong incentive to optimize your odds for the nr. 1 pick which means being the worst team.

If - on the other hand - you make the lottery even for all non-playoff teams, you remove the incentive to tank for worst record.

We also have to see the bigger picture here.

Having a high draft pick simply is not valuable outside when there is a clear cut college standout. We're talking talent so great you can't miss it. Are there any of the franchise players picked one, who did not have a great college career or had such obvious athletic talent it was a no miss?

Nope any fool could pick AI from his Hoya career or pick Dwight or Yao.

That really proves that NBA teams are not really that good at drafting. It is all the more clear when you look at how cheaply teams like Warriors (Jerry West) and Spurs (Pop) picked their championship players.


most college players are coming out too early IMO - need more polishing, however just an above average NCAA season gives them a green light hype and the lottery team dives in with hopes they're a future superstar.

draft in general is a hit or miss anyways, rarely do teams succeed built through the draft--FA signings/trades guarantee more than hopes of the draft being a foundation

[kshutts1]

How many nr. 1 picks turned out franchise players in the last 20 years?

Since 1996, * denotes franchise player:

Iverson*
Duncan*
Olowokandi
Brand*
Kenyon Martin
Kwame Brown
Yao Ming*
Lebron*
Dwight*
Bogut
Bargnani
Oden
Rose*
Griffin*
Wall*
Irving
Davis*
Bennet
Wiggins
Towns


What about 2nd picks?

Since 1996, * denotes franchise player:

Camby
Van Horn
Bibby
Francis
Stromile Swift
Tyson Chandler
Jay Williams
Darko Milicic
Emeka Okafor
Marvin Williams
LMA*
Kevin Durant*
Beasley
Turner
Derrick Williams
MKG
Oladipo

What about 3rd picks?

Since 1996, * denotes franchise player:

Shareef Abdur Rahim*
Billups
LaFraentz
Baron Davis*
Darius Miles
Pau Gasol*
Dunleavy
Ben Gordon
Deron Williams*
Adam Morrison
Al Horford
OJ Mayo
Derrick Favors
Enes Kanter
Bradley Beal
Otto Porter


You have some odd criteria for "franchise player".

Just some of the most obvious inconsistencies...
Choosing:
Brand, Shareef

But not choosing:
Horford, Favors, Billups, Francis, Bibby (stretch), Camby (stretch, but you mentioned Chandler), Irving (:biggums: ), and then Jay Williams gets a pass, since he was co-ROY but then got hurt.

That said... the increase in early entrants makes scouting harder, as does the game becoming more global; teams can no longer focus as strongly in some areas, and may spread themselves too thin without staffing up accordingly. Also, there's been a huge shift to draft potential rather than talent and ability. Teams are choosing to swing for the fences, knowing it increases their chance to strike out.

I think the most appropriate places to look for drafting ability are:
#1 pick -- You have your pick of the everyone. Pretty obvious.
#10-20 -- The "potential" guys are gone, so this is where teams can focus on finding actual players, and I didn't extend this to the end of the first round because of potential lack of talent depth.

Then the second round is where you can see teams do one of two things.. they either draft an obvious boom-or-bust candidate, or they draft "system guys" (check those picks for accuracy as it's very easy to tell the difference between the two)

[90sgoat]

You have some odd criteria for "franchise player".

Just some of the most obvious inconsistencies...
Choosing:
Brand, Shareef

But not choosing:
Horford, Favors, Billups, Francis, Bibby (stretch), Camby (stretch, but you mentioned Chandler), Irving (:biggums: ), and then Jay Williams gets a pass, since he was co-ROY but then got hurt.

That said... the increase in early entrants makes scouting harder, as does the game becoming more global; teams can no longer focus as strongly in some areas, and may spread themselves too thin without staffing up accordingly. Also, there's been a huge shift to draft potential rather than talent and ability. Teams are choosing to swing for the fences, knowing it increases their chance to strike out.

I think the most appropriate places to look for drafting ability are:
#1 pick -- You have your pick of the everyone. Pretty obvious.
#10-20 -- The "potential" guys are gone, so this is where teams can focus on finding actual players, and I didn't extend this to the end of the first round because of potential lack of talent depth.

Then the second round is where you can see teams do one of two things.. they either draft an obvious boom-or-bust candidate, or they draft "system guys" (check those picks for accuracy as it's very easy to tell the difference between the two)

You have to admit the record for draft picks 2-3 is bad. Very bad.

Most guys didn't even become good second options, many busts, lots of bench guys.

Did they squander their picks? I think so. Drafting by potential simply doesn't seem to work out. All the guys drafted 1st who became stars had obvious star talent.

It's like with guys like Curry and Parker, they drop because NBA scouts don't for skills.

On the other hand, they couldn't see the potential in Kawhi. Maybe they're just not very good? They draft purely on athleticism and in recent years they really like long thin tweeners.