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View Full Version : Which is more likely to win Finals game?.. 25/13/9 with 7 TO's, or 45/6/6 with 2 TO's



3ball
06-12-2016, 01:31 PM
.
Keep in mind that the 25 points aren't assisted by teammates much and require a far longer time of possession

dubnation
06-12-2016, 01:32 PM
Yo... what's wrong with you?

bigkingsfan
06-12-2016, 01:33 PM
Which is better 73 wins or 72

3ball
06-12-2016, 01:42 PM
Yo, it's just scoring


Scoring is the most important thing a #1 option does.. MJ scored 5.5 more ppg in the playoffs with better efficiency across the board (TS, FG, ORtg) and clutch (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12438582&postcount=24) - these things are more valuable, require more energy, and control the game better than Lebron's 2.5 def rebound edge (with less offensive rebounds) and 1.0 assist edge (with more turnovers).

There's never been a #1 option that scored 5.5 more on better efficiency that wasn't considered the far better player.

The scoring gap is even bigger than people realize - Lebron has many series and even entire playoff runs where he isn't the team's leading scorer.. Otoh, MJ is the only all-time great to lead his team in scoring for every playoff series of his career, and he did it by an average of 15.4 ppg (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=406920) (let that sink in).. MJ also led his team in passing, just like Lebron - he led the Bulls in assist percentage for both 3-peats (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11713121&postcount=49), so he assisted on the highest proportion of teammate field goals.

MJ's goat scoring load, team-leading passing, and best-ever defense at his position is the goat performance and biggest load ever carried.





What does spacing have to do with anything


Today's era is offense-friendly due to the spacing - Lebron and Curry achieve their stats with teammates spacing the floor (their respective teams attempt 30 threes per game), while MJ achieved his stats without teammates spacing the floor (the Bulls took 5 threes per game in 1991).. Obviously, Jordan's stats would explode with today's spacing and hands-off (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12438473&postcount=10) defense.

Consider that Lebron's 3-point percentage is 31.9% in playoffs, and his midrange percentage is below 40% for 10 of 13 seasons (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12389794&postcount=17).. Westbrook, Wade, Derozan, & Butler have similarly (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12389778&postcount=41) poor jumpshot efficiency, yet they remain top scorers because today's wide open spacing and hands-off defense allows easier rim access.. MJ would get the same rim access, except he could also live off his midrange jumpshot, since it's efficiency was better than Curry's (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12438405&postcount=31), and since the today's spacing forces defenses to give up midrange.





Who cares about brand of basketbal


Lebron and Harden are the only non-point guards in the top 50 (http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/possessions/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=TIME_OF_POSS&dir=1) for time of possession.. In the 2015 Finals, Lebron scored 35.8 ppg on 33 shots by holding the ball for an insane 12.0 minutes (http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/possessions/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Playoffs&PORound=4&sort=TIME_OF_POSS&dir=1) time of possession, which was 50% higher than the RS leader John Wall's 8.2 minutes (http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/possessions/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=TIME_OF_POSS&dir=1).

Ultimately, Lebron is 2/7 because his ball-dominant style from the forward position invariably fosters inferior teamwork and brand of basketball than MJ's quick-decision, more off-ball repertoire (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXErOmq3owg&t=0m52s).

Specifically, Lebron lowers his teammates' APG (playmaking), and increases their assisted rate (play-finishing). Here's the APG and assisted rate of key teammates, with and without Lebron:

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11709473&postcount=1

dubnation
06-12-2016, 01:57 PM
Scoring is the most important thing a #1 option does.. MJ scored 5.5 more ppg in the playoffs with better efficiency across the board (TS, FG, ORtg) and clutch (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12438582&postcount=24) - these things are more valuable, require more energy, and control the game better than Lebron's 2.5 def rebound edge (with less offensive rebounds) and 1.0 assist edge (with more turnovers).

There's never been a #1 option that scored 5.5 more on better efficiency that wasn't considered the far better player.

The scoring gap is even bigger than people realize - Lebron has many series and even entire playoff runs where he isn't the team's leading scorer.. Otoh, MJ is the only all-time great to lead his team in scoring for every playoff series of his career, and he did it by an average of 15.4 ppg (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=406920) (let that sink in).. MJ also led his team in passing, just like Lebron - he led the Bulls in assist percentage for both 3-peats (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11713121&postcount=49), so he assisted on the highest proportion of teammate field goals.

MJ's goat scoring load, team-leading passing, and best-ever defense at his position is the goat performance and biggest load ever carried.



Today's era is offense-friendly due to the spacing - Lebron and Curry achieve their stats with teammates spacing the floor (their respective teams attempt 30 threes per game), while MJ achieved his stats without teammates spacing the floor (the Bulls took 5 threes per game in 1991).. Obviously, Jordan's stats would explode with today's spacing and hands-off (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12438473&postcount=10) defense.

Consider that Lebron's 3-point percentage is 31.9% in playoffs, and his midrange percentage is below 40% for 10 of 13 seasons (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12389794&postcount=17).. Westbrook, Wade, Derozan, & Butler have similarly (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12389778&postcount=41) poor jumpshot efficiency, yet they remain top scorers because today's wide open spacing and hands-off defense allows easier rim access.. MJ would get the same rim access, except he could also live off his midrange jumpshot, since it's efficiency was better than Curry's (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12438405&postcount=31), and since the today's spacing forces defenses to give up midrange.



Lebron and Harden are the only non-point guards in the top 50 (http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/possessions/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=TIME_OF_POSS&dir=1) for time of possession.. In the 2015 Finals, Lebron scored 35.8 ppg on 33 shots by holding the ball for an insane 12.0 minutes (http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/possessions/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Playoffs&PORound=4&sort=TIME_OF_POSS&dir=1) time of possession, which was 50% higher than the RS leader John Wall's 8.2 minutes (http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/possessions/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=TIME_OF_POSS&dir=1).

Ultimately, Lebron is 2/7 because his ball-dominant style from the forward position invariably fosters inferior teamwork and brand of basketball than MJ's quick-decision, more off-ball repertoire (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXErOmq3owg&t=0m52s).

Specifically, Lebron lowers his teammates' APG (playmaking), and increases their assisted rate (play-finishing). Here's the APG and assisted rate of key teammates, with and without Lebron:

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11709473&postcount=1

:roll: I think you've really lost it this time homeboy.

73 > 72, and it's not 1998 anymore - sorry old man.

G0ATbe
06-12-2016, 01:59 PM
Curry > MJ > LeBald.

Hey Yo
06-12-2016, 02:16 PM
Who's team is more likely to win the playoff game

63-5-6 or 36-12-8

3ball
06-12-2016, 02:26 PM
:roll: I think you've really lost it this time homeboy.

73 > 72, and it's not 1998 anymore - sorry old man.


It isn't 1998?... That was the year when the Jazz defeated the most talent ever to a reach the Finals, including Shaq's 4-all star Lakers, Popovich/Duncan/Robinson's 56-win Spurs, and Hakeem's Rockets.

We saw what happened in the Finals though - Jordan dropped 45 points in the crucial game, a far cry from Lebron's 25 points and 7 turnovers in Game 4..