Nate Silver predicts Clinton win

[rezznor]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-predicts-hillary-clinton-wins-election/story?id=40213871





"We're at halftime of the election right now," Silver said. "She's taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There's a lot of football left to be played. She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll."




"Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign," Silver said. "He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent."

Silver called 49 states correctly in the 2008 presidential election and got all 50 in 2012.

[UK2K]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-predicts-hillary-clinton-wins-election/story?id=40213871

He didn't call this one correctly:


"Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign," Silver said

Cause he has. Clinton should, and likely will, win.

But there's a lot of time left between now and then.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/quinnipiac-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/

The best part of this election cycle?


The survey also found a majority of voters -- 58% for Trump, and 53% for Clinton -- said each would not be a good president.

Both candidates suck. :lol

Also:

while Clinton wins African-American voters, 91% to 1%
:oldlol: :oldlol: :oldlol:

[Terahite]

Natejewdamus using football analogies for this shit :kobe: :facepalm
how bout Trump will crush her in the general election in a landslide and all the pollster fagots shook. :lol

[~primetime~]

Been obvious that Clinton will be pres for months now...

[Facepalm]

Been obvious that Clinton will be pres for months now...
Obvious to everyone but Trumptards like the guy above you.

[DonDadda59]

Natejewdamus using football analogies for this shit :kobe: :facepalm
how bout Trump will crush her in the general election in a landslide and all the pollster fagots shook. :lol

How do you feel about this headstone?

http://i67.tinypic.com/zkib5s.jpg

:confusedshrug:

[Nanners]

You dont need to be nate silver to know that clinton is going to win

That said, Nate Silver has been consistently wrong about trump during these primaries. (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/nate_silver_said_donald_trump_had_no_shot_where_di d_he_go_wrong.html)

[Draz]

Its over. Shut it down

[TheMan]

Natejewdamus using football analogies for this shit :kobe: :facepalm
how bout Trump will crush her in the general election in a landslide and all the pollster fagots shook. :lol
and when none of that happens, say buh bye on Nov 8

No welshing on our self permaban bet now :no:

I'm just doing my small part of ridding ISH of some of these reactionary rightwing blowhards :applause:

[Draz]

O
V
E
R

[Lakers Legend#32]

I always trust Nate Silver's numbers.

[Real Men Wear Green]

Trump is on TV right now talking about how he has spent far less and has nowhere near as much staff but is still effectively tied according to the Quinnipiac poll (didn't mention other polls). Follows that with now talking about all the Republican candidates that didn't honor the pledge to support the party's nominee.

All true, but why would any of this be a reason to vote for him? Trump spends a lot of time talking about himself and his grudges, it seems.

[LikeABosh]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChpUi6jUUAA-Z8i.jpg

[LikeABosh]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/05/02/20160503_truimp.jpg

[UK2K]

Trump is on TV right now talking about how he has spent far less and has nowhere near as much staff but is still effectively tied according to the Quinnipiac poll (didn't mention other polls).
The Q poll was released today (most recent), and the second most recent poll had results waaaaay the **** out there that don't make any sense. And it's true, his staff is 1/10th of Clinton's and he's spent 1/5th the money, yet, according to the most recent GE poll, Clinton is up +2.



Follows that with now talking about all the Republican candidates that didn't honor the pledge to support the party's nominee.
Weird, when Trump wouldn't sign the pledge, everyone gave him shit for it. But now... now it's different.

He's calling them on their bullshit, as he should.


All true, but why would any of this be a reason to vote for him? Trump spends a lot of time talking about himself and his grudges, it seems.

Because he won the GOP nomination in a landslide. He's polling a few digits within Clinton and he's up against the Democrats AND the GOP establishment.

Pretty impressive.

[FillJackson]

He didn't call this one correctly:

Quote:
"Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign," Silver said

:
no, he's not talking about a single poll here or there. Lets say 20 polls come out this week. 2 of them have Trump winning. Trump is not ahead at that point.

He's saying his model never had trump ahead

[Real Men Wear Green]

The Q poll was released today (most recent), and the second most recent poll had results waaaaay the **** out there that don't make any sense. And it's true, his staff is 1/10th of Clinton's and he's spent 1/5th the money, yet, according to the most recent GE poll, Clinton is up +2.I didn't dispute the veracity. Of course everyone knows that the polls all have slightly different sampling areas, which is why thy get different results.



Weird, when Trump wouldn't sign the pledge, everyone gave him shit for it. But now... now it's different.

He's calling them on their bullshit, as he should.But what is he accomplishing by way of getting voters? At this point does anyone care whether or not he is friends with "Jeb!"? It doesn't matter. He has the attention of the voting public, shouldn't hebe focused on giving people reasons to vote for him? He will make a valid point even when he talks about how Clinton is flopping on trade. And then he can't help but to vent his grudges with a bunch of people he's already beat. He's wasting opportunity.



Because he won the GOP nomination in a landslide. He's polling a few digits within Clinton and he's up against the Democrats AND the GOP establishment.

Pretty impressive.
Hillary Clinton is something like 55% unpopular rating. She is not ever going to get any support from the Republican 3rd of the electorate. It's borderline impossible for him to go below 40% in spite of his best efforts.

[DeuceWallaces]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/05/02/20160503_truimp.jpg

No one could ever predict how stupid the GOP electorate is.

[bdreason]

Bold prediction. :sleeping

[Draz]

Shut
It
Down

[falc39]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/05/02/20160503_truimp.jpg

Lol. I always questioned why this guy got so much hype when there are a lot of people who do essentially the same thing he does. Visited his site a couple times and it's not like he's researching anything mind-blowing but yet he is hyped up like some superstar prophet. I remember a lot of those trump headlines. Now it just looks like he has egg on his face.

[Jameerthefear]

Lol. I always questioned why this guy got so much hype when there are a lot of people who do essentially the same thing he does. Visited his site a couple times and it's not like he's researching anything mind-blowing but yet he is hyped up like some superstar prophet. I remember a lot of those trump headlines. Now it just looks like he has egg on his face.
Over the last 2 elections he has gotten 99/100 states right. His math is very good. He's not a great pundit though.

[NumberSix]

No one could ever predict how stupid the GOP electorate is.
What was there to "predict"? There was never a point where he wasn't ahead in the polls by large margins.

[Jameerthefear]

What was there to "predict"? There was never a point where he wasn't ahead in the polls by large margins.
Yeah, this is actually true. Nate was getting away from the numbers and more on his opinion. He admitted this.

[FillJackson]

What was there to "predict"? There was never a point where he wasn't ahead in the polls by large margins.
You could argue that he was ignoring the numbers when he made those predictions.

He cited an influential book, called The Party Decides about how the Party eventually coalesces around a consensu choice.

That didn't play out this year. It could be the Party was weak and on the verge of splitting.

It could be that the new money rules allow marginal candidates to run longer campaigns and thus allow an under 50% candidate to take the nomination. This cycle you just needed one billionaire to believe in you and you can go pretty far.

[Terahite]

Trump is on TV right now talking about how he has spent far less and has nowhere near as much staff but is still effectively tied according to the Quinnipiac poll (didn't mention other polls). Follows that with now talking about all the Republican candidates that didn't honor the pledge to support the party's nominee.

All true, but why would any of this be a reason to vote for him? Trump spends a lot of time talking about himself and his grudges, it seems.

Such a salient point. Maybe you should turn off the boob tube and actually watch one of his rallies if you want to know what he's all about. There's a new one almost every day. Just search "Trump rally" in YouTube and they are there for you to watch. Don't rely on the mainstream media to give you the truth about his campaign (it's essentially 6 companies who hate Trump's guts and control 90% of what we read, see, and hear).

[FillJackson]

The Q poll was released today (most recent), and the second most recent poll had results waaaaay the **** out there that don't make any sense. And it's true, his staff is 1/10th of Clinton's and he's spent 1/5th the money, yet, according to the most recent GE poll, Clinton is up +2.
This is the very definition of cherry picking.

Both of these polls lay outside the margins of other recent polls, but one is deemed invalid and the other is deemed valid. The one you deem valid is the one you whose results you hope are true.

[Real Men Wear Green]

Such a salient point. Maybe you should turn off the boob tube and actually watch one of his rallies if you want to know what he's all about. There's a new one almost every day. Just search "Trump rally" in YouTube and they are there for you to watch. Don't rely on the mainstream media to give you the truth about his campaign (it's essentially 6 companies who hate Trump's guts and control 90% of what we read, see, and hear).
I am sitting there watching him talk, live. Everything he says isn't about himself, his polls, and his grudges but a lot more of it is than anyone I've ever seen with a realistic shot at the Presidency.

[FillJackson]

Pollster's Model has

Clinton at 45.6
Trump at 38.8

That's an average polling lead of 6.8 %

So a poll of Clinton +2 is 4.8% away from consensus.
The ABC Poll is Clinton +12 is 5.2% away from consensus.

There's not much difference there. Not enough reason to say one is valid and one is not.

[DonDadda59]

The Q poll was released today (most recent), and the second most recent poll had results waaaaay the **** out there that don't make any sense. And it's true, his staff is 1/10th of Clinton's and he's spent 1/5th the money, yet, according to the most recent GE poll, Clinton is up +2.


Didn't even give you a full day of false hope.

[INDENT]Fox News Poll: Clinton up by 6 points, 89 percent say 'hot-headed' describes Trump

Donald Trump has had a few rocky weeks on the campaign trail, and it shows in the latest Fox News Poll. Just over half of Republicans would rather have someone besides Trump as their nominee, and his support in the presidential ballot test has dropped seven points since May.

Democrat Hillary Clinton is up 44-38 percent over Trump in a head-to-head matchup. Earlier this month, Clinton had a three-point edge (42-39 percent). In May, Trump was up by three (45-42 percent). Clinton

[Draz]

It's over

[FillJackson]

[QUOTE]Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning, compared with Trump's 20 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight

[FillJackson]

Hillary Clinton is something like 55% unpopular rating. She is not ever going to get any support from the Republican 3rd of the electorate. It's borderline impossible for him to go below 40% in spite of his best efforts.

Going to have 4 parties on the ballots in most states this year.

Libertarians have a shot of getting between 5-7%. Greens between 1-3%

[FillJackson]

Also nobody show UK, the Ballotopedia swing state polls. Not for a few days.

[Facepalm]

Also nobody show UK, the Ballotopedia swing state polls. Not for a few days.

Sorry, got to.


Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump across the board in a new poll of battleground states.

According to Ballotpedia's battleground poll, Clinton leads Trump:
51% to 37% in Florida
45% to 41% in Iowa
50% to 33% in Michigan
48% to 38% in North Carolina
46% to 37% in Ohio
49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
45% to 38% in Virginia


Of the seven states polled by Ballotpedia, Clinton’s lead was smallest in Iowa, where registered voters who responded to the poll preferred her by 4 points. The former secretary of state’s largest lead came in Michigan, a traditionally Democratic-leaning state where Trump has said he could compete in November. Clinton leads the Manhattan billionaire there by 17 points, 50 percent to 33 percent.

Clinton also holds double-digit leads over Trump in Florida (14 points), Pennsylvania (14 points) and North Carolina (10 points). Respondents preferred her to Trump by 9 points in Ohio and 7 points in Virginia.


:hammertime: :hammertime: :hammertime: Please Hammer, Don't Hurt 'Em :hammertime: :hammertime: :hammertime:

[DonDadda59]

Sorry, got to.






:hammertime: :hammertime: :hammertime: Please Hammer, Don't Hurt 'Em :hammertime: :hammertime:

http://i.makeagif.com/media/6-30-2016/BpJNrT.gif

[G-train]

I know all you Lefties hate Trump, but out of interest, do you also 'not like' Hillary?

[Draz]

What a massive load to the face

[rezznor]

I know all you Lefties hate Trump, but out of interest, do you also 'not like' Hillary?
i don't like Hillary either, never have...but she's much better than that temperamental man child con artist Trump

also, I don't really consider myself a liberal. i lean right on plenty of issues. if the republicans ever got rid of the wingnuts i would probably vote for them again.

[FillJackson]

I know all you Lefties hate Trump, but out of interest, do you also 'not like' Hillary?
What's your definition of Lefty?

[Jameerthefear]

I know all you Lefties hate Trump, but out of interest, do you also 'not like' Hillary?
I don't like Hillary either, but she'll likely do less damage to me currently and for the future. Not even sure if I'm going to vote since I'm not in a swing state.

[IcanzIIravor]

I know all you Lefties hate Trump, but out of interest, do you also 'not like' Hillary?

I don't hate Trump. What I find appalling about him being the GOP nominee is he is a more flawed character than Hillary. He is the only person who's flaws basically make voters overlook her flaws. The GOP base ceded this election to the Democrats by picking him. If they had picked Cruz or even Rubio I think they had a better chance. With Trump there is no chance and they now most likely will lose the Senate and a significant number of House Seats. They picked the one person who doesn't actually give a damn about the party and does not realize that a win is going to be pretty hollow if he loses the Senate and the less likely scenario of losing the House too. You have a guy who is not doing anything of significance to help down ballot people as it is completely about himself to the exclusion of everyone else. It's basically an 'I win or the whole party goes down in flames' scenario he is running with.

I'm not a Hillary supporter and most likely will vote third party, but Trump is just a ridiculous candidate. You know what you will get with Hillary, which I think can be checked by the GOP if the adults retake control of the party. Trump never had a chance, so I don't bother to entertain seriously the thought of him as President.

[FillJackson]

You know what you will get with Hillary, which I think can be checked by the GOP if the adults retake control of the party.


Um,


Ted Cruz was the number two choice of GOP voters.

[IcanzIIravor]

Um,


Ted Cruz was the number two choice of GOP voters.

A very distant second. He has some flaws, but he was far superior to Trump. They wouldn't be playing defense in traditionally red states with him as the nominee.

[TheMan]

Sorry, got to.






:hammertime: :hammertime: :hammertime: Please Hammer, Don't Hurt 'Em :hammertime: :hammertime: :hammertime:
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