RedBlackAttack
07-02-2016, 10:58 PM
I posted this in another thread, but after finishing the essay and delving deep into the numbers, I thought it deserved its own thread, so here you go.
A lot of people are asking, "Where do the Cavs go from here?"
Yes, Delly looks like he is done in wine and gold and Mozgov signed a bizzare contract with the Lakers, but there is still some wiggle room for the Cavs to help replace those losses and maybe even become better for it.
Here's the breakdown:
First, let's look at who is solidly on the books for the Cavs heading into the 2016-17 season and their respective salaries.
Players on the Books
Kyrie Irving, $17.6 million
Kevin Love, $21.2 million
Tristan Thompson, $15.3 million
Iman Shumpert, $9.7 million
Channing Frye, $7.8 million
Mo Williams, $2.2 million (picked up player option)
Sasha Kaun, $1.3 million
Jordan McRae, $900,000
The Math
Do the math and that is "only" $76 million, which is $18 million under the projected cap for next year. But, look closer... who is missing?
LeBron will be getting a $27.7 million contract based on how the CBA is structured. My guess is he'll probably do a 1+1 with a player option on the 2nd year, opt out again next year and finally ink his name to a longterm contract next offseason.
That will move the Cavs' salary to around $103 million, over the cap limit.
Also, while Delly and Timo are gone, we still have to pay JR Smith. Letting Delly walk was a sure-sign that the front office's main priority this offseason was to re-sign JR (and LeBron of course). And, I think that is the right move. He's been completely indispensable on both ends.
But, how much is he going to get and how much will he cost us? I would guess somewhere between $14-16 million a year over 3-4 years.
Richard Jefferson is next on the list. I can almost guarantee he gets the vet minimum. So, you're talking around $1.55 million annually.
Same thing goes for James Jones.
We are up to between $120-125 million and that doesn't include draft picks Kay Felder, who I will assume will make the roster, and Cedi Osman (we own his rights). Either of those guys could be signed to rookie deals (basically nothing in today's NBA).
So, all of that is a very long way of saying that we will presumably look like this before bringing any non-rookie new players:
PG: Kyrie Irving, Mo Williams, Kay Felder
SG: JR Smith, Iman Shumpert
SF: LeBron James, Richard Jefferson, Jordan McRae
PF: Kevin Love, Channing Frye, James Jones
C: Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, Sasha Kaun
Options
This doesn't mean the Cavs can't make any moves beyond minimum contracts, though. There are still some assets at the front office's fingertips if they can work some things out.
First, there is the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception which is $3.5 million to spend on a player.
Secondly, the Cavs have a treasure chest of three tax exceptions totaling about $15 million.
Roster Questions/Concerns
The biggest question I have is whether you use the MLE for a real, 7-foot center or you attempt to mitigate the loss of Delly by landing a solid enough backup point guard.
Backup PG
The problem is, looking at the list of guys available, I don't know who that is. I'd love to have a guy like Leondro Barbosa, but he probably isn't leaving the Warriors unless he is making significantly more money, which he wouldn't in Clevleand. Now, he'd have a bigger role here. Maybe that would be appealing? Other names... Greivis Vasquez, Norris Cole, Ian Clark, Aaron Brooks, Randy Foye, Raymond Felton, Jarrett Jack, Ty Lawson, Pablo Prigioni, etc.
None of those names seem appealing to me. I think the Cavs may just roll with Mo Williams and Kay Felder as their backup PGs and hope Williams gets healthy this offseason and Felder is all that they hope he is (kid has a ton of upside).
Remember... Delly was undrafted. He deserves a lot of credit for working himself into a $10 million a year player, but the Cavs have a recent, very good history of developing PGs.
Legitimate Center
What I think is a bigger issue is what to do with the center position now that our only true Center (Mozgov) just became a higher paid player than Kyrie Irving and/or Tristan Thompson (yeah, that happened). We have no legitimate centers on this roster right now except for Sasha Kaun and that isn't good. Tristan plays great in the playoffs against any and all centers, but to do it for an 82-game grind? That's a different story.
We need a center. A real center who can take the pounding and give out a little of his own. The guy I've been eyeing is Zaza Pachulia.
If he wants to take less money to go for a title, this is a perfect opportunity. We have the TPMLE and he'd be a great pickup.
The other option is to use the trade exceptions plus another asset to add a bigman. That $15 million to work with and a first round pick in 2020 could be very useful to a team looking to dump salary for a go at Durant or Westbrook or whomever next year (though I'd prefer to keep the pick).
I'd love to see a deal made for a guy like Kostas Koufos and he's obviously being shopped by the Kings who have, like, 10 centers on their roster. I think he'd be a great fit.
They could also maybe get Zaza with the MLE and trade for a PG or wing player?
Conclusion
Lots of options, but they probably won't start to get really active (other than signing JR and LBJ) until after all of this initial madness. Deals will be out there when the smoke clears. I think they're being smart by not even attempting to engage in any of this money burning happening right now.
Fortunately, our core is already set and we did the vast majority of this work before the cap went haywire and Timofey Mozgov began making more than Kyrie Irving and/or Tristan Thompson. After all, we're essentially talking about the bench, here. The major stuff is cemented for a long time.
The Champs' time will come in this offseason, and it will be glorious. :pimp:
A lot of people are asking, "Where do the Cavs go from here?"
Yes, Delly looks like he is done in wine and gold and Mozgov signed a bizzare contract with the Lakers, but there is still some wiggle room for the Cavs to help replace those losses and maybe even become better for it.
Here's the breakdown:
First, let's look at who is solidly on the books for the Cavs heading into the 2016-17 season and their respective salaries.
Players on the Books
Kyrie Irving, $17.6 million
Kevin Love, $21.2 million
Tristan Thompson, $15.3 million
Iman Shumpert, $9.7 million
Channing Frye, $7.8 million
Mo Williams, $2.2 million (picked up player option)
Sasha Kaun, $1.3 million
Jordan McRae, $900,000
The Math
Do the math and that is "only" $76 million, which is $18 million under the projected cap for next year. But, look closer... who is missing?
LeBron will be getting a $27.7 million contract based on how the CBA is structured. My guess is he'll probably do a 1+1 with a player option on the 2nd year, opt out again next year and finally ink his name to a longterm contract next offseason.
That will move the Cavs' salary to around $103 million, over the cap limit.
Also, while Delly and Timo are gone, we still have to pay JR Smith. Letting Delly walk was a sure-sign that the front office's main priority this offseason was to re-sign JR (and LeBron of course). And, I think that is the right move. He's been completely indispensable on both ends.
But, how much is he going to get and how much will he cost us? I would guess somewhere between $14-16 million a year over 3-4 years.
Richard Jefferson is next on the list. I can almost guarantee he gets the vet minimum. So, you're talking around $1.55 million annually.
Same thing goes for James Jones.
We are up to between $120-125 million and that doesn't include draft picks Kay Felder, who I will assume will make the roster, and Cedi Osman (we own his rights). Either of those guys could be signed to rookie deals (basically nothing in today's NBA).
So, all of that is a very long way of saying that we will presumably look like this before bringing any non-rookie new players:
PG: Kyrie Irving, Mo Williams, Kay Felder
SG: JR Smith, Iman Shumpert
SF: LeBron James, Richard Jefferson, Jordan McRae
PF: Kevin Love, Channing Frye, James Jones
C: Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, Sasha Kaun
Options
This doesn't mean the Cavs can't make any moves beyond minimum contracts, though. There are still some assets at the front office's fingertips if they can work some things out.
First, there is the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception which is $3.5 million to spend on a player.
Secondly, the Cavs have a treasure chest of three tax exceptions totaling about $15 million.
Roster Questions/Concerns
The biggest question I have is whether you use the MLE for a real, 7-foot center or you attempt to mitigate the loss of Delly by landing a solid enough backup point guard.
Backup PG
The problem is, looking at the list of guys available, I don't know who that is. I'd love to have a guy like Leondro Barbosa, but he probably isn't leaving the Warriors unless he is making significantly more money, which he wouldn't in Clevleand. Now, he'd have a bigger role here. Maybe that would be appealing? Other names... Greivis Vasquez, Norris Cole, Ian Clark, Aaron Brooks, Randy Foye, Raymond Felton, Jarrett Jack, Ty Lawson, Pablo Prigioni, etc.
None of those names seem appealing to me. I think the Cavs may just roll with Mo Williams and Kay Felder as their backup PGs and hope Williams gets healthy this offseason and Felder is all that they hope he is (kid has a ton of upside).
Remember... Delly was undrafted. He deserves a lot of credit for working himself into a $10 million a year player, but the Cavs have a recent, very good history of developing PGs.
Legitimate Center
What I think is a bigger issue is what to do with the center position now that our only true Center (Mozgov) just became a higher paid player than Kyrie Irving and/or Tristan Thompson (yeah, that happened). We have no legitimate centers on this roster right now except for Sasha Kaun and that isn't good. Tristan plays great in the playoffs against any and all centers, but to do it for an 82-game grind? That's a different story.
We need a center. A real center who can take the pounding and give out a little of his own. The guy I've been eyeing is Zaza Pachulia.
If he wants to take less money to go for a title, this is a perfect opportunity. We have the TPMLE and he'd be a great pickup.
The other option is to use the trade exceptions plus another asset to add a bigman. That $15 million to work with and a first round pick in 2020 could be very useful to a team looking to dump salary for a go at Durant or Westbrook or whomever next year (though I'd prefer to keep the pick).
I'd love to see a deal made for a guy like Kostas Koufos and he's obviously being shopped by the Kings who have, like, 10 centers on their roster. I think he'd be a great fit.
They could also maybe get Zaza with the MLE and trade for a PG or wing player?
Conclusion
Lots of options, but they probably won't start to get really active (other than signing JR and LBJ) until after all of this initial madness. Deals will be out there when the smoke clears. I think they're being smart by not even attempting to engage in any of this money burning happening right now.
Fortunately, our core is already set and we did the vast majority of this work before the cap went haywire and Timofey Mozgov began making more than Kyrie Irving and/or Tristan Thompson. After all, we're essentially talking about the bench, here. The major stuff is cemented for a long time.
The Champs' time will come in this offseason, and it will be glorious. :pimp: