Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

[UK2K]

Statistics site 538, which is operated by Nate Silver, adjusted its projections ahead of the debate Monday, giving the odds to Republican nominee Donald Trump.

If the election were held today, Trump leads with a 54.9 percent chance of winning the election, according to the site. The win projection stems from Trump winning the key battleground states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada. The same projection shows Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Virginia.



Clinton had a 92 percent chance of winning in the first week of August, and has been in a steady decline ever since.

Trump gained the national lead in the latest Morning Consult and Bloomberg polls, and took the lead in Colorado, reducing Clinton’s chances of winning that state.



Not that I care about what Nate Silver says, I just thought it was funny that some were parroting his work on here months ago.

[TommyGriffin]

We have been on the surge lately but remember this is still before The Debate. Last time Trump said a bunch of crazy shit about how he knows more than our Generals and wants to take all the oil out of the Middle East.

[Ben Simmons]

Nate Silver is 99/100 in the past two elections I think.

[DonDadda59]

You dudes will never learn. Before Clinton had a 92% chance of winning, the Donald was up at 538 (somewhere around 55%) for a handful of days following the RNC.

Right now The Donald's "lead" is already gone. :yaohappy:

Enjoy the show tonight.

https://media.giphy.com/media/tu6LYcwt1lx72/giphy.gif

[Duderonomy]

You dudes will never learn. Before Clinton had a 92% chance of winning, the Donald was up at 538 (somewhere around 55%) for a handful of days following the RNC.

Right now The Donald's "lead" is already gone. :yaohappy:

Enjoy the show tonight.



https://images.encyclopediadramatica.se/0/05/Hillary_fade.jpg

[DonDadda59]

https://images.encyclopediadramatica.se/0/05/Hillary_fade.jpg

Last time the Clintons were in the oval office:

[INDENT]Yet over the next eight years, President Clinton presided over one of the most impressive economic turnarounds in modern history. By the end of his term, 22.7 million new jobs had been created, unemployment dropped to a 30-year low, and gross domestic product grew by 35 percent overall through the longest period of sustained growth in U.S. history.

What

[UK2K]

You dudes will never learn. Before Clinton had a 92% chance of winning, the Donald was up at 538 (somewhere around 55%) for a handful of days following the RNC.



Yep, it got to be 50.1% for about a day on July 30th, but kinda...

[DonDadda59]

Yep, it got to be 50.1% for about a day on July 30th, but kinda...

http://i67.tinypic.com/x3aikn.jpg

https://media.giphy.com/media/tu6LYcwt1lx72/giphy.gif

[UK2K]

http://i67.tinypic.com/x3aikn.jpg

https://media.giphy.com/media/tu6LYcwt1lx72/giphy.gif

:confusedshrug:

http://s18.postimg.org/etatzd14p/2016_09_26_155233.jpg

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[DonDadda59]

:confusedshrug:

http://s18.postimg.org/etatzd14p/2016_09_26_155233.jpg

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Bruh, you just linked me to the polls-only section. Your OP was about 'who would win today' (AKA Now Cast), under that metric (as I proved to you) the Donald was at 55% following the RNC before his epic collapse.

Either way, Clinton is up by all of Silver's metrics.

Hope you enjoyed the hour or so when the Donald was up. :cheers:

[NumberSix]

Nate Silver is 99/100 in the past two elections I think.
Nate Silver has predicted both outcomes multiple times.

[dude77]

:oldlol:

daddio on perpetual meltdown since sept 1

dems are scared and nervous ..

the panic is real ..

this is how I picture daddio and co. when they try to post 'confidently'

http://reactiongifs.me/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/the-smile-man-willen-dafoe-creepy.gif

[TheMan]

:oldlol:

daddio on perpetual meltdown since sept 1

dems are scared and nervous ..

the panic is real ..

this is how I picture daddio and co. when they try to post 'confidently'

http://reactiongifs.me/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/the-smile-man-willen-dafoe-creepy.gif
Funny gif, what movie is that from?

[TheMan]

BTW, Nate Silver has Shillary up 55%-45% chances of winning the election atm.

RCP currently has HC winning FL and taking 292 EVs to 246 if the election were held today.

Obviously the debates can change the dynamic for each candidate...or it could be a wash and this thing goes down the wire.

[Rockets(T-mac)]

I hope Trump wins, America deserves this.

[Jameerthefear]

Nate Silver has predicted both outcomes multiple times.
tbh he doesn't really predict anything. it's literally just an analysis of polling data.

[TheWinningFam]

tbh he doesn't really predict anything. it's literally just an analysis of polling data.
this

[HarryCallahan]

tbh he doesn't really predict anything. it's literally just an analysis of polling data.
Well fvcking duh. In other news, water is wet.

[ILLsmak]

https://images.encyclopediadramatica.se/0/05/Hillary_fade.jpg

haha that's funny shit.

The scary part is some people don't wanna see how flawed and shit both of these people are. They just wanna defend them.

-Smak

[bladefd]

If the election was held now after the debate ended, Trump would lose. He looked so out of touch with reality, ignorant, and just unprepared out there. What the hell was that we just witnessed?

I can't wait to see Nate Silver's poll numbers after the debate in the coming few days. I have a very good feeling Hillary will rebound in polls for a small lead. 2nd and 3rd debates will be it for Trump. If he performs this bad again then forget it. Even Romney and McCain did better at their first presidential debates.. They were prepared. I don't think Trump even spent more than a couple days preparing. He thinks he can knock it out of the park without prepping. What a narcissistic blowhard.

[TommyGriffin]

http://onwardstate.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/this_partys_over_star_wars.gif