View Full Version : Gary Johnson winning New Mexico in November?
There is a possibility of a funky scenario next month. Right now, Gary Johnson has just shy of 1/4 of the votes in his home state of New Mexico. New Mexico has been a predominantly blue state in modern time, with the Democrats taking 5 of the last 6 elections. Trump isn't winning NM no matter what. But the feeling is that if GJ can get closer to 1/3, the majority of the votes he steals will be from Hillary not Trump. GJ taking New Mexico combined with Trump taking just 1 of the 7 swing states means it's entirely possible neither candidate reaches 270. In that case, it goes to the House of Reps with each state getting one vote and Trump most likely winning. However, this is Trump's only chance of winning.
It's unlikely to happen, but it's also more than a remote possibility. It is plausible and not terribly far fetched. Pretty crazy to think a third party candidate potentially having this much of an impact on the election.
NumberSix
10-04-2016, 04:58 PM
I Johnson takes enough votes from Bill's wife, Trump could win NM... and if Trump wins NM, there's a strong chance of this election being 269 to 269.
I Johnson takes enough votes from Bill's wife, Trump could win NM... and if Trump wins NM, there's a strong chance of this election being 269 to 269.
Right now it's 35-31-24, Hillary-Trump-Johnson. If GJ pushes closer to 1/3, it hurts Hillary far more than Trump. Trump will lose a few points(I'd say around 2), but Hillary would lose closer to 10. If Johnson finishes at 30, it could finish something like 30-29-26.
FillJackson
10-04-2016, 05:14 PM
There is a possibility of a funky scenario next month. Right now, Gary Johnson has just shy of 1/4 of the votes in his home state of New Mexico. New Mexico has been a predominantly blue state in modern time, with the Democrats taking 5 of the last 6 elections. Trump isn't winning NM no matter what. But the feeling is that if GJ can get closer to 1/3, the majority of the votes he steals will be from Hillary not Trump. GJ taking New Mexico combined with Trump taking just 1 of the 7 swing states means it's entirely possible neither candidate reaches 270. In that case, it goes to the House of Reps with each state getting one vote and Trump most likely winning. However, this is Trump's only chance of winning.
It's unlikely to happen, but it's also more than a remote possibility. It is plausible and not terribly far fetched. Pretty crazy to think a third party candidate potentially having this much of an impact on the election.
When you say 1 of the swings states you mean Florida right? The biggest one?
New Mexico is only 5 electoral votes, Gary Johnson is 11 points behind in New Mexico.
So how does not getting to 270 happen?
The Upshot has the most likely scenario as Clinton with 322 votes. In that case she doesn't need NM. They also estimate there's a 2 percent chance of a tie.
NumberSix
10-04-2016, 05:15 PM
I would actually rather see a tie than an outright Trump victory.
FillJackson
10-04-2016, 05:16 PM
I Johnson takes enough votes from Bill's wife, Trump could win NM... and if Trump wins NM, there's a strong chance of this election being 269 to 269.
Which is different that the scenario he mentions, but Johnson still has both Trump and Clinton to overcome.
FillJackson
10-04-2016, 05:17 PM
:cheers:
I would actually rather see a tie than an outright Trump victory.
We agree.
FillJackson
10-04-2016, 05:25 PM
have you seen the 538 snake thingy?
right now with the definite blue and likely blue states, they have Colorado putting her over the top with 4 tossups leaning blue, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. They have up back up to 75% chance of winning and over 340 votes
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
When you say 1 of the swings states you mean Florida right? The biggest one?
New Mexico is only 5 electoral votes, Gary Johnson is 11 points behind in New Mexico.
So how does not getting to 270 happen?
The Upshot has the most likely scenario as Clinton with 322 votes. In that case she doesn't need NM. They also estimate there's a 2 percent chance of a tie.
Trump leads in Ohio, Iowa, and trails by less than a point in Nevada. Taking all 3 is 30 points to Florida's. Losing Florida at that point isn't the end of the world. Taking Florida certainly makes his life easier but he's not automatically out if he loses it.
FillJackson
10-04-2016, 06:00 PM
Trump leads in Ohio, Iowa, and trails by less than a point in Nevada. Taking all 3 is 30 points to Florida's. Losing Florida at that point isn't the end of the world. Taking Florida certainly makes his life easier but he's not automatically out if he loses it.
Right now if he loses Florida and PA, he's done.
Pollster has him down 5 points in PA which gives him the following odds among various pollsters.
Pennsylvania
86% D
80% D
83% D
97% D
91% D
80% D
Lean D
Lean D
Lean D
So yeah, he needs Florida.
qrich
10-04-2016, 06:25 PM
Why vote for the left nut or the right nut when you can have the whole Johnson?
FillJackson
10-04-2016, 06:51 PM
just found a pic of the snake thingy
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct9Q7gfXgAAX93O.jpg
Jasper
10-05-2016, 10:41 AM
I Johnson takes enough votes from Bill's wife, Trump could win NM... and if Trump wins NM, there's a strong chance of this election being 269 to 269.
Why vote for the left nut or the right nut when you can have the whole Johnson? :D
Putting Hitlary & Trumpster = my Johnson :pimp:
just found a pic of the snake thingy
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct9Q7gfXgAAX93O.jpg
Ha, that's pretty cool.
If Democrats didn't flood CA with border jumpers, they'd be ****ed.
Micku
10-05-2016, 01:08 PM
Right now if he loses Florida and PA, he's done.
Pollster has him down 5 points in PA which gives him the following odds among various pollsters.
Pennsylvania
86% D
80% D
83% D
97% D
91% D
80% D
Lean D
Lean D
Lean D
So yeah, he needs Florida.
Pretty much. The dude needs Florida. He had Colorado for a little bit there or it was tie. With that he was winning. But since then he lost his lead in Florida, Colorado, and NC, it's not looking good. Even with him winning Florida and NC, he still was losing.
And I'm curious to figure out the new polling of AZ. He was leading, but not by much. So, it's possible for him to lose there too.
He needs Florida to stay competitive. NC is still reachable. I don't really see Clinton losing PA but it's possible for Trump to turn it around. The average polling in PA was like 4.4 for Clinton side? The recent ones had her above 10 points.
Ha, that's pretty cool.
If Democrats didn't flood CA with border jumpers, they'd be ****ed.
lol! That's the west coast wall. But what about Texas doe? Texas is only 6 points for Trump. In comparison to Cali, they are hardcore blue and with 20 points for Clinton last time they polled. And I keep hearing that Texas is becoming more and more blue.
Will this be it tho? I mean, damn man. And all of the polls showed before the debate. I'll be shocked as hell if Texas turn blue. That's overkill.
Nick Young
10-05-2016, 01:36 PM
Ha, that's pretty cool.
If Democrats didn't flood CA with border jumpers, they'd be ****ed.
The problem with Cali is the bay area. A lot of Southern Californians hate Hillary and loved Bernie. They either won't vote or have switched to Trump.
The state itself apart from LA and the bay area is very red.
The bay area is what ****s it up for everyone. Those libtard hippies are the bluest voters in the country. If the Bay area wasn't so cucked, Cali would go Trump this year.
lol! That's the west coast wall. But what about Texas doe? Texas is only 6 points for Trump. In comparison to Cali, they are hardcore blue and with 20 points for Clinton last time they polled. And I keep hearing that Texas is becoming more and more blue.
Will this be it tho? I mean, damn man. And all of the polls showed before the debate. I'll be shocked as hell if Texas turn blue. That's overkill.
It's no secret minorities breed like stoned rabbits...
It happens in third world countries, in happens in Africa, in happens in South America, it will happen here.
Truthfully, if the Republicans lose this election, they may never win one again. Gullible blacks and Hispanics are having kids much faster than whites, and it will likely always be that way. It's only a matter of time before whites are a minority in Texas; it's inevitable unless we spay and neuter...
And... then what? Who will the tax payers be?
That's the thing most Democrats aren't seeing... The US is a beacon of light in a dark room. Find me ONE country dominated by blacks or Hispanics that is successful. You can't, there are none. But somehow, here it will be different I guess.
It is what it is. I will be alive just long enough to watch this country collapse in on itself, but by the time shit really hits the fan, I'll likely be gone, so it won't be my problem.
The problem with Cali is the bay area. A lot of Southern Californians hate Hillary and loved Bernie. They either won't vote or have switched to Trump.
The state itself apart from LA and the bay area is very red.
The bay area is what ****s it up for everyone. Those libtard hippies are the bluest voters in the country. If the Bay area wasn't so cucked, Cali would go Trump this year.
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/disturbing-photos-SoMa-drug-use-homelessness-9624487.php
San Francisco... the ideal Democrat society...
Rich whites dominate the land, while the city is overrun with homeless.
[QUOTE]SACRAMENTO
Nick Young
10-05-2016, 02:18 PM
We also chased away the cashcow porn industry to Nevada with the idiotic porn stars must wear condom law.
I'm not excited for the future of California. The Dem leadership has done their best to destroy us.
You're right. San Fransisco is a perfect example. The richest people in America live there, and it also has one of the biggest homeless populations of any major US city.
Unsurprisingly, the rich Democrats in San Fransisco who claim to love the poor so much are doing absolutely nothing to help the homeless. Everyone who lives in SF or who has gone to visit comments on the high amount of homeless people populating the entire city. San Fransisco has all this money and all of these .com billionaires there.
Many of these .com billionaires claim to be bleeding heart liberals. But none of them want to spend any money to help the homelessness epidemic.
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