Which Center was the best at their peak? - regular season

[AussieSteve]

So far I have tried to quantify which PF and which SG had the highest regular season peaks here

PF: http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=421950
SG: http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=422077

This thread attempts to quantify which center was best at their peak. This is nothing to do with who was the GOAT center, it is only an attempt to find out who had the highest peak. By this I mean which C had the single best 82 consecutive game stretch during their regular season career.

As a reminder the formula I am using to quantify each players peak level is a win-weighted average game score… GmSc*0.5*(1+win%). Which means that stats in a loss are only worth half of stats in a win. If a player has an average GmSc of 10.0, and his team won 82 games, his weighted GmSc will remain at 10.0. If he had 41 wins, it would be 7.5. If he had 0 wins, it would be 5.0. In this way I am trying to weight box stats and team success approximately equally.

Note that this analysis is strictly of who had the highest peak since 1978, since that's when all the currently used box stats became available. Also note that lots of game data is missing prior to 1984, so the missing game stats were filled in with season averages (I made sure that the stats that I filled in tallied to the correct season totals). As such, the data for Moses and KAJ will be not 100% accurate - but pretty close.

So with that, the best 82 game run by each of the top six centers since 1978 was

1. Shaq – 22.95 (70 wins, 29.7ppg, 13.6rpg, 3.7apg, 0.5spg, 3.0bpg, 2.7tov .579 TS%) (29/4/99 -> 18/4/00)
2. Robinson – 22.20 (56 wins, 30.0ppg, 11.4rpg, 4.8apg, 1.7spg, 3.2bpg, 3.2tov, .584 TS%) (17/11/93 -> 23/11/94)
3. Hakeem – 21.68 (67 wins, 26.6ppg, 12.9rpg, 3.8apg, 2.0spg, 4.2bpg, 3.5tov .576 TS%) (10/1/93 -> 5/1/94)
4. Moses* – 21.08 (62 wins, 29.5ppg, 15.3rpg, 1.5apg, 1.0spg, 1.8bpg, 3.6tov, .575 TS%) (16/1/82 -> 18/1/83)
5. Kareem* – 19.66 (60 wins, 25.0ppg, 10.9rpg, 4.5apg, 1.0spg, 3.4bpg, 3.6tov, .639 TS%) (7/4/79 -> 27/3/80)
6. Ewing - 18.05 (46 wins, 28.7ppg, 11.3rpg, 2.2apg, 1.0spg, 4.1bpg, 3.4tov, .599 TS%) (16/11/89 -> 11/11/90)

So Shaq’s peak was the best. In 99/00 Shaq was the best that a center has been in the last ~38 years.

*Moses and Kareem’s stats are affected by missing data as I mentioned above. Also Kareem’s true peak was obviously before 1978, so this is not indicating that Shaq’s peak was in fact better than Kareem’s.

[Young X]

1993 was Olajuwon's peak.

[AussieSteve]

1993 was Olajuwon's peak.

According to this metric his best streak was the last 52 games of 93 and to first 30 of 94

[Rocketswin2013]

1993 was Olajuwon's peak.
Came to say this.

[NBAGOAT]

did not expect Moses to jump into the top 4 but he is a statistical beast and one of the few centers to average 30ppg in a season. Does your cutoff include 77-78 because that's the year a lot of people have Kareem's peak. Definitely likely most of his best stretch comes from there.

Edit: Also big typo for Ewing. It can't be 04 to 05.

[AussieSteve]

did not expect Moses to jump into the top 4 but he is a statistical beast and one of the few centers to average 30ppg in a season. Does your cutoff include 77-78 because that's the year a lot of people have Kareem's peak. Definitely likely most of his best stretch comes from there.

Edit: Also big typo for Ewing. It can't be 04 to 05.

Corrected.. thanks for the pickup.

Analysis includes 77-78, but KAJ only played 62 games that season, so the first 82 games of his that are in, include 20 games of the following season. I don't know if 77-78 would have been his peak. Purely from a stats perspective, he averaged more ppg and rpg every single season prior to that one.

[NBAGOAT]

Corrected.. thanks for the pickup.

Analysis includes 77-78, but KAJ only played 62 games that season, so the first 82 games of his that are in, include 20 games of the following season. I don't know if 77-78 would have been his peak. Purely from a stats perspective, he averaged more ppg and rpg every single season prior to that one.

srry i meant 76-77. You're right about 77-78. Unfortunately that year isn't included either. Most people I've seen have 71 or 77.

[Round Mound]

David Robinson was incredible regular season player but his offensive game decreases in the play-offs.

[Rocketswin2013]

1. '00 Shaq
2. '94 Robinson
3. '71 Kareem
4. '67 Wilt
5. '93 Hakeem

That's how I'd go with it. '72 Kareem is close, lesser degree '77 and '78.

[iamgine]

So far I have tried to quantify which PF and which SG had the highest regular season peaks here

PF: http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=421950
SG: http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=422077

This thread attempts to quantify which center was best at their peak. This is nothing to do with who was the GOAT center, it is only an attempt to find out who had the highest peak. By this I mean which C had the single best 82 consecutive game stretch during their regular season career.

As a reminder the formula I am using to quantify each players peak level is a win-weighted average game score… GmSc*0.5*(1+win%). Which means that stats in a loss are only worth half of stats in a win. If a player has an average GmSc of 10.0, and his team won 82 games, his weighted GmSc will remain at 10.0. If he had 41 wins, it would be 7.5. If he had 0 wins, it would be 5.0. In this way I am trying to weight box stats and team success approximately equally.

Note that this analysis is strictly of who had the highest peak since 1978, since that's when all the currently used box stats became available. Also note that lots of game data is missing prior to 1984, so the missing game stats were filled in with season averages (I made sure that the stats that I filled in tallied to the correct season totals). As such, the data for Moses and KAJ will be not 100% accurate - but pretty close.

So with that, the best 82 game run by each of the top six centers since 1978 was

1. Shaq – 22.95 (70 wins, 29.7ppg, 13.6rpg, 3.7apg, 0.5spg, 3.0bpg, 2.7tov .579 TS%) (29/4/99 -> 18/4/00)
2. Robinson – 22.20 (56 wins, 30.0ppg, 11.4rpg, 4.8apg, 1.7spg, 3.2bpg, 3.2tov, .584 TS%) (17/11/93 -> 23/11/94)
3. Hakeem – 21.68 (67 wins, 26.6ppg, 12.9rpg, 3.8apg, 2.0spg, 4.2bpg, 3.5tov .576 TS%) (10/1/93 -> 5/1/94)
4. Moses* – 21.08 (62 wins, 29.5ppg, 15.3rpg, 1.5apg, 1.0spg, 1.8bpg, 3.6tov, .575 TS%) (16/1/82 -> 18/1/83)
5. Kareem* – 19.66 (60 wins, 25.0ppg, 10.9rpg, 4.5apg, 1.0spg, 3.4bpg, 3.6tov, .639 TS%) (7/4/79 -> 27/3/80)
6. Ewing - 18.05 (46 wins, 28.7ppg, 11.3rpg, 2.2apg, 1.0spg, 4.1bpg, 3.4tov, .599 TS%) (16/11/89 -> 11/11/90)

So Shaq’s peak was the best. In 99/00 Shaq was the best that a center has been in the last ~38 years.

*Moses and Kareem’s stats are affected by missing data as I mentioned above. Also Kareem’s true peak was obviously before 1978, so this is not indicating that Shaq’s peak was in fact better than Kareem’s.

Shaq's peak came at a time when there were no ATG centers. His FT% sucked so hack a shaq was an option and his defense was not at the level of the other centers mentioned. Add to that he had a budding Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson.

I always reckon that David Robinson was the best peak regular season center ever other than Wilt. ATG DPOY level defense, playing with less than ideal teammates, AND his H2H record against Hakeem was...lets just say he whooped Hakeem much more often than the reverse.

[AussieSteve]

David Robinson was incredible regular season player but his offensive game decreases in the play-offs.

Will do playoff peak for centers next.

[AussieSteve]

1. '00 Shaq
2. '94 Robinson
3. '71 Kareem
4. '67 Wilt
5. '93 Hakeem

That's how I'd go with it. '72 Kareem is close, lesser degree '77 and '78.

Your order and timing of shaq, robinson and hakeem's peaks match up identically with the OP. Which is a good sanity check for the analysis.

[AussieSteve]

Shaq's peak came at a time when there were no ATG centers. His FT% sucked so hack a shaq was an option and his defense was not at the level of the other centers mentioned. Add to that he had a budding Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson.

I always reckon that David Robinson was the best peak regular season center ever other than Wilt. ATG DPOY level defense, playing with less than ideal teammates, AND his H2H record against Hakeem was...lets just say he whooped Hakeem much more often than the reverse.

I agree with everything here. I personally rate Robinson's RS peak the highest too.

I attempted to account for all around game, including defense, by weigting game score by win%. But its evident that defense is still under valued somewhat. In an MVP vote though 70 wins would definitely beat 56, and you could argue that Shaq's stats might have been better on a lesser team, which would have lifted his score higher.

There also appears to be a problem when you have more than one superstar on a team. In this case a very high win % seems to artificially inflate a player's score. This also inflated Kobe's playoff rating while he was teamed with shaq to be higher than when he was the sole star at LAL.

Overall this methodolygy seems to give a pretty reliable rating though I think.

[Big164]

http://i.cdn.turner.com/nba/nba/.element/media/2.0/teamsites/sixers/spiritofthechampion/Rhythm-v.2.9.1/www/images/photo-phila-chamberlain.jpg

^That 300 lb beast kills everyone on the list

[ArbitraryWater]

1. '00 Shaq
2. '67 Wilt

3. '77 Kareem
4. '93 Hakeem

[Marchesk]

Regular season, it's Wilt, and there's no debate. He smashed record books as a rookie, and continued to smash them for years after that. He was an outlier unlike any other than Curry's 3PT shooting, or Oscar's triple doubles.

Shaq never put up the kind of numbers Wilt did in those seasons, even adjusted for pace (as far as the regular season goes).