Not all NBA threes are created equal

[Marchesk]

Not just because of distance, but also how closely contested they are.

This means that mid to long range two point shots can be more valuable in some cases.

https://i.postimg.cc/TPtMQBhg/NBA-shot-value-chart.png

If you take a tightly contested shot from 23-24 feet, that's a little less valuable than a slightly contested 20-21 footer (.71 vs .79).

A fall-away, tightly contested three is probably even lower in value. What this mean is that sometimes it's better for NBA players to find a less contested shot inside the three point line.

That's even more true at the end of games when your team is down one or two points and the temptation is to jack an off balance, tightly contested three.

If we take Harden as an example (since he takes the most threes), his three point percentage when guarded by someone within 2-4 feet is only 29.6% (https://stats.nba.com/players/shots-closest-defender/?sort=FG3A&dir=1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612745&CloseDefDistRange=2-4%20Feet%20-%20Tight). That means there's probably a shot between the lane and the three point which has a higher value, if Harden had a midrange game.

[bullettooth]

That means there's probably a shot between the lane and the three point which has a higher value, if Harden had a midrange game.

He does, except it's all flopping for the sake of a whistle.

[Marchesk]

He does, except it's all flopping for the sake of a whistle.

Yeah, he's an exception with the amount of free throws he gets.

[Tennis19]

when was the last time you saw a 13ft-18ft midrange shot 6 feet wide open? ur chart only proves its dumb to take midrange shots. its also more easy to get a good look at a 3 because of spacing.

[Marchesk]

when was the last time you saw a 13ft-18ft midrange shot 6 feet wide open? ur chart only proves its dumb to take midrange shots. its also more easy to get a good look at a 3 because of spacing.

A tightly contested 3 is slightly worse than a 19-20 foot shot were the defender is two to four feet a way. So you're wrong.

And there's plenty of bad threes in the game in addition to the good ones. For all the great three point shooting the Warriors have, they don't take too many threes. They have a nice balance along with Durant and Livingston being good mid-range scorers. Also, the Spurs.

[Marchesk]

Watching the Rockets play, sometimes it would be better if they got a midrange shot, when there's only a contested three and no clear lane to the basket or open teammate. Yeah, Harden gets a lot of FTs, but when it's not him or it's not there, then the midrange would provide some needed balance to Houston's constant chucking, which is not always efficient.

[jongib369]

Watching the Rockets play, sometimes it would be better if they got a midrange shot, when there's only a contested three and no clear lane to the basket or open teammate. Yeah, Harden gets a lot of FTs, but when it's not him or it's not there, then the midrange would provide some needed balance to Houston's constant chucking, which is not always efficient.
With the amount they miss sometimes I don't know how anyone can argue against them going to this more often when it's not a hot night for them. It's not like you have to completely abandon it

[Marchesk]

With the amount they miss sometimes I don't know how anyone can argue against them going to this more often when it's not a hot night for them. It's not like you have to completely abandon it

And yet people do argue just that. But yeah, I don't understand them not having some mid-range as a backup plan for when their threes aren't falling.