FiveThirtyEight launches new Defensive Advanced Stats (don't retire yet 3ball)

[90sgoat]

"These are some pretty interesting lists. Porzingis, Embiid, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant are among the players whose defense had been most underrated by BPM and RPM. There’s also new Boston Celtics point guard Kemba Walker and, in something of a surprise, former Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas, who still rates as a pretty terrible defender, just not quite as terrible as before when you incorporate his DRAYMOND data. The most overrated defenders include players such as Westbrook, Rondo, Ariza, Otto Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokic.

Cases such as Thompson and Westbrook are interesting because the conventional wisdom has been way off from where the advanced metrics have them. RPM and BPM say that Westbrook is the much better defensive player, when a lot of NBA general managers might prefer Thompson or at least would regard it as close. But Thompson is a good defender according to DRAYMOND, whereas Westbrook is a wretched one, which closes at least some of the gap. Undoubtedly, there are even better ways to use opponents’ shooting data than what we’ve established with DRAYMOND, but the data ought to be a central part of the conversation about player defense going forward."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-better-way-to-evaluate-nba-defense/

Full csv download here: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-draymond

[SpaceJam]

2018-19

LeBron James +0.40

Kawhi Leonard +0.25

Appreciate you bringing this to the forum bro

[warriorfan]

https://i.postimg.cc/52Y4BMXy/E3-B11-DFD-0513-4-EFC-AD35-08-B42503-D77-E.jpg

[90sgoat]

I think it is most accurate for centers and shot blockers, since it measures stuff about contesting shots.

Kawhi, Iggy etc keep a shot from even happening since they deny the ball or force a dribble.

[Wally450]

3ball isn't going anywhere. If he sniffs someone mentioning LeBron>MJ, he can't fight the urge not to post paragraphs about it.

[ralph_i_el]

Does it account for some defenders being hidden on weak offensive players?

[sdot_thadon]

I took a look at it a bit ago, and I'm not sure this one is a new go to stat. Some guys considered the elite of the elite as far as perimeter defense goes barely crack positive numbers on this scheme. And some guys post their career high in injury seasons where their actual possessions counted were really low. Bigs typically did well across the board too, at least the guys i thought mattered.

[90sgoat]

Does it account for some defenders being hidden on weak offensive players?

No, that would not be included here since the weak, non-shooters simply don't shoot, so there is no shot to contest.

As I wrote, this is imo only a good stat for big men. It filters out flashy defenders who don't have good positional defense (being within 5 feet of a shot). Pau Gasol is 23rd here, due to good positional defense, while a flashy, but low effort, low IQ, shot blocker like Deandre Jordan is 53.

It's a good stat for non-flashy centers to prove their worth.

[90sgoat]

I took a look at it a bit ago, and I'm not sure this one is a new go to stat. Some guys considered the elite of the elite as far as perimeter defense goes barely crack positive numbers on this scheme. And some guys post their career high in injury seasons where their actual possessions counted were really low. Bigs typically did well across the board too, at least the guys i thought mattered.

This is a stat that measures being in proximity of a shot, which means naturally centers are going to be dominant here.

It seems like a good stat to value positional defense for centers.

[sdot_thadon]

This is a stat that measures being in proximity of a shot, which means naturally centers are going to be dominant here.

It seems like a good stat to value positional defense for centers.
Not just centers a tall rangy guy like Kd did pretty well too. But a guy like Pat Bev had a disappointing rating.

[NBASTATMAN]

2018-19

LeBron James +0.40

Kawhi Leonard +0.25

Appreciate you bringing this to the forum bro


lebron the GOAT.. :banana:

[90sgoat]

Not just centers a tall rangy guy like Kd did pretty well too. But a guy like Pat Bev had a disappointing rating.

If you don't contest shots, then this stat isn't for you.

I'd say, if you filter this stat for 6'9'' and up and you'd get a good idea of which big guys actually play defense.

[tpols]

A lot of defensive stats weigh rebounding heavily so statpadder has better defense ratings when they ain't good at defense.

[SomeBlackDude]

Does it account for some defenders being hidden on weak offensive players?

$tat nerds never take context into consideration.

no #s system can account for something like bronny aka mr. 1-5 avoiding the servant for 2 whole finals series and letting his teammates get roasted on his watch.

the eye test>>>>

from now til infinity.

[90sgoat]

A lot of defensive stats weigh rebounding heavily so statpadder has better defense ratings when they ain't good at defense.

Exactly, which is why a statpadder like Deandre Jordan is waaay down on this list.

[DukeDelonte13]

The only real defensive metric that matters is the eye test. There are so many variables that can skew the result of any given possession.

Did the offensive player receive a good pass or one they had to jump for or gather real low to bring it in?

Was the offensive player in a spot that he normally makes shots or in a cold zone?

Was the defender already in position or did he have to rotate to help?

Where were the defenders hands?

How many minutes was the defender playing?

If the ball went in, was it a clean shot or contested?

[Shogon]

One day... not today and no time soon... but one day, we will have stats that will eliminate the need for an eye test. And at that point, there won't be much of a point in even playing the games, lol.

[sdot_thadon]

One day... not today and no time soon... but one day, we will have stats that will eliminate the need for an eye test. And at that point, there won't be much of a point in even playing the games, lol.
By that point they'll all be simulated and we'll be tuning in to Mj vs Lebron in the 2055 all time finals.

[And1AllDay]

By that point they'll all be simulated and we'll be tuning in to Mj vs Lebron in the 2055 all time finals.

:rockon: :rockon: :rockon:

[FireDavidKahn]

Does it account for some defenders being hidden on weak offensive players?
It's a rate statistic, so yes it does. If you are guarding a weak offensive player they will be attempting fewer shots.

[FireDavidKahn]

Not just centers a tall rangy guy like Kd did pretty well too. But a guy like Pat Bev had a disappointing rating.
Pat was rated as the 3 best point guard in 2018-19:coleman:

[RRR3]

$tat nerds never take context into consideration.

no #s system can account for something like bronny aka mr. 1-5 avoiding the servant for 2 whole finals series and letting his teammates get roasted on his watch.

the eye test>>>>

from now til infinity.
Kind of like how MJ quivered in fear at the mere thought of defending the opposing team

[warriorfan]

[QUOTE=RRR3]Kind of like how MJ quivered in fear at the mere thought of defending the opposing team

[ArbitraryWater]

$tat nerds never take context into consideration.

no #s system can account for something like bronny aka mr. 1-5 avoiding the servant for 2 whole finals series and letting his teammates get roasted on his watch.

the eye test>>>>

from now til infinity.

eye test just give biased folks like yourself impunity


anyone can say anything


you need to at least hold onto a few reputable numbers, keep yourself honest. stick to a few filters.