FiveThirtyEight 2020 projections

[Facepalm]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-way-too-early-projections-for-the-2019-20-nba-season/?ex_cid=story-twitter

[QUOTE]Our pick for the top seed

[3ball]

Rockets at #1 is crazy and could be a shining example of stats gone wrong...... unless they actually maximize the immense talent they have

They could do this by putting Westbrook off-ball, mj-style

If Westbrook can mimic MJ off-ball, then who knows - maybe they can win the West, assuming they can play some D

Other than MJ's catch-and-shoot ability, Westbrook has similar footwork to MJ (i.e. MJ's optimal lean-in footwork and vertical leaping style) and I could see him being devastating off-ball, especially in this spaced-out environment

[Facepalm]

Rockets at #1 is crazy and could be a shining example of stats gone wrong...... unless they actually maximize the immense talent they have

They could do this by putting Westbrook off-ball, mj-style

If Westbrook can mimic MJ off-ball, then who knows - maybe they can win the West, assuming they can play some D

Other than MJ's catch-and-shoot ability, Westbrook has similar footwork to MJ (i.e. MJ's optimal lean-in footwork and vertical leaping style) and I could see him being devastating off-ball, especially in this spaced-out environment


Harden has already proven to be a better pg than Westbrook so I agree with you.

[DMAVS41]

Where do you guys think the Rockets actually should project in terms of wins if you think they are so far off?

They won 65 in 18 and 53 last year despite Paul missing like 1/4 of the season. Rivers also was a nice fit and he was added for a limited number of games.

They'll also, almost for sure, add another rotation player at some point during the season that helps.

58 wins seems perfectly reasonable given the evidence.

[NBAGOAT]

their system has accounted more for load management, coasting type stuff now because the cavs kept making the finals with meh regular season resumes. With that it makes more sense the clips are a mid tier seed since kawhi's not going give 100% during the rs and he and george might each play like 60 games. 48 still seems way too low however

[Facepalm]

Where do you guys think the Rockets actually should project in terms of wins if you think they are so far off?

They won 65 in 18 and 53 last year despite Paul missing like 1/4 of the season. Rivers also was a nice fit and he was added for a limited number of games.

They'll also, almost for sure, add another rotation player at some point during the season that helps.

58 wins seems perfectly reasonable given the evidence.
I'm ok with 58 for the Rockets, It's mostly how low the Clippers are that surprises me although NBAGoat has a good point

[3ball]

538 does statistical analysis, so is it surprising that their #1 seed projects to be the team with the 2 biggest regular season stat whores of all time?

538 is a joke... A bunch of mumbo jumbo that doesn't predict shit

[DMAVS41]

538 does statistical analysis, so is it surprising that they project the team with the 2 biggest regular season stat whores of all time to be #1?

538 is a joke... A bunch of mumbo jumbo that doesn't predict shit

How many wins do you think the Rockets get next year?

[3ball]

How many wins do you think the Rockets get next year?
55-60

But Clips and Lakers should be flirting with 70 wins each, like the warriors and Spurs a few years ago, assuming every team does load management so that cancels out

[tpols]

538 does statistical analysis, so is it surprising that their #1 seed projects to be the team with the 2 biggest regular season stat whores of all time?

538 is a joke... A bunch of mumbo jumbo that doesn't predict shit


Westbrook and hardens style works in the regular season... So they are right.

[Xiao Yao You]

I can see the Rockets having a huge regular season. Westbrook will be exposed in the playoffs yet again though

[Derka]

I think they're underselling the Pacers and overselling the Rockets. Otherwise, not bad.

[NBAGOAT]

538 does statistical analysis, so is it surprising that their #1 seed projects to be the team with the 2 biggest regular season stat whores of all time?

538 is a joke... A bunch of mumbo jumbo that doesn't predict shit

During conference finals while bucks and warriors were looking good, they had raps as favorites to win the title. Midseason had raptors over bucks even with how good the bucks were looking

[3ball]

they predicted raptors over warriors midway through the season. Even during conference finals while bucks and warriors were looking good, they had raps as favorites to win the title
So did I, and i didn't need a bunch of stats

[3ball]

they predicted raptors over warriors midway through the season. Even during conference finals while bucks and warriors were looking good, they had raps as favorites to win the title
Btw, 538 says lebron's heat and Cavs are the most stacked teams ever on paper as of 2016

And they said mj won his 91' and 93' rings with the weakest casts ever to win, aside from the 03' Spurs, 94' to let's and 11' mavs

[DMAVS41]

55-60

But Clips and Lakers should be flirting with 70 wins each, like the warriors and Spurs a few years ago, assuming every team does load management so that cancels out

Ok, so you clearly have no issue with the Rockets expectation.

As for the other stuff....no way you can project two teams at close to 70 wins in a conference this good and deep...just no way.

Again, I'd imagine they are using games played projections based off the past few years and that is why the Clippers are relatively low...because Leonard has missed a ton of games as of late and George won't even be healthy at the start of the year.

[StrongLurk]

OP is so mad that Lebron is a top 3 basketball player of all time :lol

[3ball]

Ok, so you clearly have no issue with the Rockets expectation.

As for the other stuff....no way you can project two teams at close to 70 wins in a conference this good and deep...just no way.


Im coming around on their projection - ball-domination does indeed work well in the regular season

Btw, the conference was good and deep in 16' too, and kawhi/lebron have better casts now than kawhi/Curry in 16'

[DMAVS41]

Im coming around on their projection - ball-domination does indeed work well in the regular season

Btw, the conference was good and deep in 16' too, and kawhi/lebron have better casts now than kawhi/Curry in 16'

You aren't accounting for load management and games played expectations as has been explained to you.

Also, I don't think that conference was as deep as this upcoming one will be. Night in night out wins will be harder in the 20 season.

[NBAGOAT]

You aren't accounting for load management and games played expectations as has been explained to you.

Also, I don't think that conference was as deep as this upcoming one will be. Night in night out wins will be harder in the 20 season.

16 is one of the more top heavy leagues ever. even the west wasnt deep that year. theres 4 elite teams, two very good ones, and not even another 50 win team

[Pushxx]

538 usually has some good takes, but this time the formulas are ****ed because I think their predictions are gonna be way off.

[MellowYellow]

Double the Knicks wins and reduce lakers by 8 and it is a good projections

[DMAVS41]

16 is one of the more top heavy leagues ever. even the west wasnt deep that year. theres 4 elite teams, two very good ones, and not even another 50 win team

Yep...

And now if Paul isn't moved by the Thunder...that team isn't an easy win at all with SGA/Paul/Danilo/Adams...potentially Roberson if he gets right.

Could be an absolute slugfest night after night all year in the West.

[Xiao Yao You]

Yep...

And now if Paul isn't moved by the Thunder...that team isn't an easy win at all with SGA/Paul/Danilo/Adams...potentially Roberson if he gets right.

Could be an absolute slugfest night after night all year in the West.

If Paul stays they have to trade Schroeder no?

[DMAVS41]

If Paul stays they have to trade Schroeder no?

Not sure, they'll trade someone, but he might be hard to move.

But he's another decent player that will add wins in the regular season if they don't move him.

Actually, I think they can get under the tax by moving Patterson, but I can't remember for certain.

[DoctorP]

I have Celtics between 5th and 7th in the East

[Xiao Yao You]

Not sure, they'll trade someone, but he might be hard to move.

But he's another decent player that will add wins in the regular season if they don't move him.

3 point guards though.

[DMAVS41]

3 point guards though.

Yea, but you can play Paul with SGA...and Dennis off the bench isn't bad....

I'm not sure the value of Dennis...I personally have him as a negative based on his contract and no way the Thunder dump him and lose an asset in the process.

[Sportal]

I find it really hard to not put the Clippers at #1... Then closely followed by the Nuggets. Then it's a toss up between Utah, Lakers, and Houston on which team figures it out the fastest and blends together. I'm certain that the Clippers/Nuggets will be top2.

[Xiao Yao You]

I find it really hard to not put the Clippers at #1... Then closely followed by the Nuggets. Then it's a toss up between Utah, Lakers, and Houston on which team figures it out the fastest and blends together. I'm certain that the Clippers/Nuggets will be top2.

I could see Houston being at the top in the regular season. But they aren't winning it all with Westbrook

[Sportal]

I could see Houston being at the top in the regular season. But they aren't winning it all with Westbrook

Nah... I just had a look at that link, those predictions are wack. Portland doesn't even make the Playoffs?? But Pelicans do? You can't tell me that the Wolves(LOL), Mavs(maybe?), Pelicans(are you KIDDING?), Thunder(really don't see it...) are above Portland. That's probably the biggest reach as far as conference predictions I've ever seen..

[Xiao Yao You]

Nah... I just had a look at that link, those predictions are wack. Portland doesn't even make the Playoffs?? But Pelicans do? You can't tell me that the Wolves(LOL), Mavs(maybe?), Pelicans(are you KIDDING?), Thunder(really don't see it...) are above Portland. That's probably the biggest reach as far as conference predictions I've ever seen..

Portland will miss Nurkic. Whiteside might show up since it's a contract year

[Sportal]

Portland will miss Nurkic. Whiteside might show up since it's a contract year

What's the timetable for Nurkic again?

[90sgoat]

They're betting Zion leads the Pels to the playoffs over Pop Spurs :roll:

[Xiao Yao You]

They're betting Zion leads the Pels to the playoffs over Pop Spurs :roll:

I could see it if he lives up to the hype. Love to see them finish ahead of the Lakers anyway