NBA Rookie of the Year: Strengths, weaknesses for top contenders

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What will swing the NBA Rookie of the Year race?

New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson is the front-runner to take the prize in 2019-20, according to the ESPN summer forecast panel. Williamson received 72.7% of first-place votes, ahead of the Memphis Grizzlies' Ja Morant (18.2%) and the New York Knicks' RJ Barrett (9.1%).

Darius Garland (Cleveland Cavaliers), Coby White (Chicago Bulls) and Jarrett Culver (Minnesota Timberwolves) also received multiple votes. (Voters were asked for their top three most likely ROY candidates, and we calculated a weighted point total).

To help dive into the ROY race, Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz revisit their pre-draft scouting reports on each player with some updated intel.


Zion Williamson | New Orleans Pelicans | 143 points
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Scouting the draft: Zion will be a mismatch nightmare in the NBAESPN NBA draft analyst Mike Schmitz analyzes Zion Williamson's chances to be a dynamic point-center in the NBA.
Strengths

A physical specimen unlike any we've seen in recent memory at 6-foot-6, 285 pounds. Will be one of the most explosive athletes in the NBA right away, but is also blessed with incredible fluidity, coordination, body control and power. Does unprecedented things seemingly every game that inspire sheer astonishment.

Extremely skilled and instinctive. Will be very difficult for opposing defenders to slow down due to his ability to create offense with the ball in his hands. Absolutely lethal in transition, but also a very dangerous option in the half court. Excellent ball handler who changes speeds effortlessly and gets incredibly low to the ground with his array of moves. Uses polished footwork and generates amazing force en route to finishing around the rim and drawing fouls. Also a strong passer thanks to his extremely high basketball IQ. Can score in the post, blowing past traditional big men and overpowering smaller players with his huge frame. Much improved shooter as well.

Appears to have ideal NBA superstar personality. Outstanding teammate and competitor. Unselfish. Loves to do the little things needed to help win games. Deflects all of the attention he receives back toward the team. Brings frenetic energy defensively when locked in, showing the ability to guard positions 1-5.

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Improvement areas

Difficult to project given his unique game. Some NBA scouts struggle with the fact that they can't find anyone to compare him to, which is part of the evaluation process. Doesn't have a traditional position in yesterday's NBA, but in the modern game will likely become a team's primary creator offensively. Will need a creative coach and the right personnel around him to unlock his full potential. Needs to be surrounded by shooting to be most effective, perhaps similar to Giannis Antetokounmpo in that regard.

Just an average shooter. Made only 24 3-pointers in 33 games at Duke, as well as 64% of his free throw attempts. Mechanics leave a lot to be desired. Ball comes off the side of his hand. Not very fluid in his lower body getting into his jumper.

Can he stay healthy playing the same wrecking-ball style over the course of 82 games? Will likely need to learn to dial back the intensity at times. Had some minor knee issues in high school and has a body type that can get thick quickly if he's not careful. Will be the second-heaviest player in the NBA right off the bat, despite his height.

Projected role: Big playmaker

Physical Comps
PLAYER AGE HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Zion Williamson 18.8 6-7 285 6-11

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RJ Barrett | New York Knicks | 53 points
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Scouting the draft: RJ Barrett projects to be even better in the NBAESPN NBA draft analyst Mike Schmitz explains how RJ Barrett's circumstances might have held him back at Duke.
Strengths

Has prototypical size, length and frame for an NBA wing at 6-foot-7 with a 6-10 wingspan at 208 pounds. Unique athlete in terms of coordination, fluidity, body control and quickness. Plays at different speeds.

Has evolved over his career into a ballhandling guard who is comfortable as a primary creator and facilitator. At his best in the open court, but is also a very capable option in pick-and-roll and isolation situations. Uses his size and high basketball IQ to see over the top of defenses and deliver pinpoint passes. He's also a solid shooter off the dribble. Incisive driver who uses his strong frame to get into the paint, initiate contact, finish from awkward angles and get to the free throw line at a prolific rate.

Has an alpha-dog mentality and wants to win at all costs. Plays with a laser focus and is not afraid of big moments. Competitor who plays with toughness and physicality.

Improvement areas

Improved shooter, but still made only 31% of his 3s last season and 67% of his free throw attempts. Doesn't have the most natural shooting stroke -- jumper looks rigid and flat at times, leading to bad misses.

Not a very efficient overall scorer. Very left-hand dominant. Aggressiveness gets the better of him at times. Shot selection and decision-making were questionable at times as a freshman, especially in late-game situations. Can't always beat better defenders off the dribble from a standstill. Lack of shooting around him at Duke made it easier for opposing defenses to accentuate his weaknesses.

Shows great potential at times defensively, but isn't consistent enough in this area.

Projected role: Primary creator and go-to scorer

Physical Comps
PLAYER AGE HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
RJ Barrett 17.8 6-7 208 6-10
DeMar Derozan 19.9 6-6

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Coby White | Chicago Bulls | 4 points
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White's dynamic scoring ability will translate to the NBAESPN NBA draft analyst Mike Schmitz analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of former North Carolina Tar Heels guard Coby White.
Strengths

Energetic scoring guard who can fill it up in a hurry. Puts relentless pressure on the rim in transition, pushing aggressively after made baskets (30.7% of his offense came in the open court). Fast with positional size and the ability to pull up or get all the way to the rim. Doesn't shy away from contact. Extremely confident. Plays with spirit and a high motor, which shows up for stretches on the defensive end.

Shotmaker with deep range both off the catch and the dribble (3.3 made 3s per 40). Ranked in the 93rd percentile on catch-and-shoot jumpers. Catches on the hop. Quick trigger with simple mechanics. Despite lack of pull-up efficiency, more than capable of creating space with step-backs. Pull-up potential makes him a threat in pick-and-roll. Great at splitting ball screens.

Made strides as a passer over the course of last season. Has some creativity when he chooses to unleash it, especially in space. Praised for his intangibles and approach.

Improvement areas

Wild decision-maker. Frenetic pace works for and against him (19.1 turnover percentage in transition). Knows only one speed. Still learning how to run a team in the half court. Will fire contested step-backs early in the possession. Doesn't always see the simple plays out of pick-and-roll. Has a tendency to overdribble. Struggles with aggressive ball pressure. How much of his stellar production was a product of having the ultimate green light in North Carolina's up-tempo system?

More streaky of a shooter than you'd hope. Low release point makes him easier to contest. Finished in the 27th percentile on pull-ups on 116 attempts. Career 34.9% 3-point shooter on 393 attempts.

Lacks ideal length with a negative wingspan and small hands. Shows glimpses defensively but wasn't a consistent factor on or off the ball as a freshman. Lack of length limits him around the rim as well, particularly because he's more quick than bouncy. Needs to add a floater.

Projected role: Microwave scorer

Physical Comps
PLAYER AGE HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Coby White 18.3 6-4