You Think Stats Are Inflated Now?

[FireDavidKahn]

If so then you can wipe off any record Wilt has.


Top 10 in PTS per 75 possessions (since 1974)

1-James Harden (36.2 in 2019 & 2020)
3-Michael Jordan (34.8 in 1987)
4-Kobe (34.2 in 2006)
5-Westbrook (33.6 in 2017)
6-MJ (32.7 in 1988)
7-Giannis (32.6 in 2020)
8-Luka (32.4 in 2020)
9-MJ (32.3 in 1993)
10-MJ (32.0 in 1990 & 1991)

1961-62 doesn't show up with per-75-possession results in Basketball Reference's Player Season Finder (lack of data).

The site does, however, estimate the Warriors' pace at 131.1 that season. Wilt was at 50.4 PTS/gm and around 28.5 PTS per 75 possessions based on that estimate.

[DMAVS41]

This is actually a pretty interesting conversation in my opinion.

The current average offensive rating in the league is 108.7

In 2008, it was 107.5

In 2002, it was 104.5

In 1996, it was 107.6

In 1990, it was 108.1

In 1984, it was 107.6

Someone correct those numbers if I'm wrong, on phone and it is hard to see.

No doubt you have to factor in pace and how many possessions there are in a game for the per game metrics.

However, we can't just stop there. Players aren't playing as many minutes anymore either.

And, the big thing that I think gets danced around quite a bit when it comes to this "defense no longer allowed" narrative...which, again, I'm not arguing nothing has changed...it is clearly easier to score now. But, the reasons why might have less to do with the defensive rules than some initially think.

Teams/players finally realized that a 3 point shot is worth 3 points...while also realizing that allowing Andrew Wiggins type players to shoot a lot of mid-range shots is really just stupid and is bad basketball.

Meaning, some of this increase and what we are seeing is flat out a result of teams/players just being smarter when it comes to offense.

Anyway, it is at least something to consider before we all negate what some of these guys are doing.

[SomeBlackDude]

Players aren't playing as many minutes anymore either.

very overlooked fact.

wilt averaged 45.6 mpg for his career. in his 50 ppg season, he average more minutes played per game than there are minutes in a regulation nba game :biggums:

the beard right now is averaging 37 mpg and putting up 39 ppg. per 36, the beard is scoring better than wilt during his 50ppg season, he's just playing pretty much a quarter less than stilt did.

same with his teammate russ. the big o averaged 44-46 mpg during his triple double prime, russ averaged 34-36 during his.

there's no question we are witnessing the most inflated stats era ever right now. players are just playing far less than other high stats times in the league.

[Manny98]

Harden > MJ

[Kblaze8855]

Large reason wilts numbers look so weird was him simply never coming off the floor. He missed 6 minutes in the 62 season mentioned and that was a ejection for punching someone. Wilts numbers were his per 48s.

Far as inflated numbers it just depends on which time you compare it to. Relative to what the adults here would have come up on? That

[Xiao Yao You]

[QUOTE=Kblaze8855]Large reason wilts numbers look so weird was him simply never coming off the floor. He missed 6 minutes in the 62 season mentioned and that was a ejection for punching someone. Wilts numbers were his per 48s.

Far as inflated numbers it just depends on which time you compare it to. Relative to what the adults here would have come up on? That

[Bronbron23]

Harden > MJ
Manny with the usual idotic troll response. Your consistent ill give u that:facepalm

[DMAVS41]

The rules changes post 2004 made it easier, but were in response to a noticeable dip in offensive performance for teams that really hadn't happened in the modern era.

Defenses had really caught up, based on the rules, and were making it harder to score than at any point in modern NBA history since the implementation of the 3 point line.

I'd argue, that while the rules have definitely played a role...the analytics movement has also played a role.

I think if teams were as smart back in other eras as the are today in terms of really knowing what constitutes good and bad possessions...the offense would improve.

And when the offensive ratings are pretty comparable for teams now as they were in other eras...

I just wonder if we are going to diminish too much of what is currently happening while ignoring that every era of defense would struggle, even under older rules, to stop the kind of offense being played right now.

[Xiao Yao You]

The rules changes post 2004 made it easier, but were in response to a noticeable dip in offensive performance for teams that really hadn't happened in the modern era.

Defenses had really caught up, based on the rules, and were making it harder to score than at any point in modern NBA history since the implementation of the 3 point line.

I'd argue, that while the rules have definitely played a role...the analytics movement has also played a role.

I think if teams were as smart back in other eras as the are today in terms of really knowing what constitutes good and bad possessions...the offense would improve.

And when the offensive ratings are pretty comparable for teams now as they were in other eras...

I just wonder if we are going to diminish too much of what is currently happening while ignoring that every era of defense would struggle, even under older rules, to stop the kind of offense being played right now.

Before the 3 point line the only good shots were at the rim and the line and basically that is what they tried to get. Feed the post. Draw fouls

[DMAVS41]

Before the 3 point line the only good shots were at the rim and the line and basically that is what they tried to get. Feed the post. Draw fouls

Right...

I'm talking about after the 3 point line though.

If teams in the 80's and 90's had known the true power of the 3 point line...I'd imagine the average offensive rating jumps up in a noticeable way...with the defensive rules staying exactly as they were.

I don't have the numbers, but the current teams have to be taking somewhere around 5-10 times the amount of 3's per game than at certain times. And that is just smart given that a 3 has the EV it does...

That is my point, I don't think we should completely write-off some of these offenses because teams have just flat out gotten smarter in terms of shot selection and how offense is played.

[Bronbron23]

The rules changes post 2004 made it easier, but were in response to a noticeable dip in offensive performance for teams that really hadn't happened in the modern era.

Defenses had really caught up, based on the rules, and were making it harder to score than at any point in modern NBA history since the implementation of the 3 point line.

I'd argue, that while the rules have definitely played a role...the analytics movement has also played a role.

I think if teams were as smart back in other eras as the are today in terms of really knowing what constitutes good and bad possessions...the offense would improve.

And when the offensive ratings are pretty comparable for teams now as they were in other eras...

I just wonder if we are going to diminish too much of what is currently happening while ignoring that every era of defense would struggle, even under older rules, to stop the kind of offense being played right now.
Yeah But this analytics movement relies alot on how the rules are now. Defenders dont gaurd perimeter players anymore because its so easy to foul due to how the game is called. You cant even fight through screens anymore which is insane to me. All teams do now is set screens. How are supposed to defend if you cant fight through them? All you can do now is switch which usually leads to a mismatch or they can do what teams usually do and double the the screener or the ball handler which leads to a open shot. Its really become to easy with these rules.

[Kblaze8855]

I think the bigger problem people have is how much easier the modern stars have it while still having straight one to one comparisons stats wise in media and by young fans who simply aren’t gonna understand.

The way Reggie Miller was guarded by the Knicks off the ball would be totally illegal now. You would have Starks or Harper fouled out in literally the first quarter. If you watch the clips explaining the rule changes just the way Starks leaned on Reggie off the ball would be illegal.

You know I’m not a Reggie guy....but I really can’t see him putting up 18-19 a game with all these hands off rules, being told not to take all those midrange shots he took, and all the extra shots available.

It makes it hard to evaluate people with anything but they eye test and there are people who take evaluation of players by what can be observed to be a slap in the face....

If we kept comparisons relative to peers it wouldn’t be such an issue. But we never do.

[DMAVS41]

Yeah But this analytics movement relies alot on how the rules are now. Defenders dont gaurd perimeter players anymore because its so easy to foul due to how the game is called. You cant even fight through screens anymore which is insane to me. All teams do now is set screens. How are supposed to defend if you cant fight through them? All you can do now is switch which usually leads to a mismatch or they can do what teams usually do and double the the screener or the ball handler which leads to a open shot. Its really become to easy with these rules.

Yes, I completely agree.

That is why I'm saying that it is clearly easier now, but that we also have to account for teams simply being smarter.

My argument is that I don't think it is accurate to just solely talk about "no defense"...

[DMAVS41]

I think the bigger problem people have is how much easier the modern stars have it while still having straight one to one comparisons stats wise in media and by young fans who simply aren’t gonna understand.

The way Reggie Miller was guarded by the Knicks off the ball would be totally illegal now. You would have Starks or Harper fouled out in literally the first quarter. If you watch the clips explaining the rule changes just the way Starks leaned on Reggie off the ball would be illegal.

You know I’m not a Reggie guy....but I really can’t see him putting up 18-19 a game with all these hands off rules, being told not to take all those midrange shots he took, and all the extra shots available.

It makes it hard to evaluate people with anything but they eye test and there are people who take evaluation of players by what can be observed to be a slap in the face....

If we kept comparisons relative to peers it wouldn’t be such an issue. But we never do.

No doubt.

You know I'm completely on board with everything above.

I also want to correct the other way a bit as well...what Harden did last night needs to be appreciated in a real way and not shrugged off the way it seemed to be on here....especially comparing it to anything post 04.

Someone tells me he probably can't do that in the 90's or early 00's...yep...I'll nod along...or at the very least agree it wouldn't be easy like that.

Someone tells me he couldn't do that in 2006? Nah, then we have a bit of an argument to have I think.

[Bronbron23]

Yes, I completely agree.

That is why I'm saying that it is clearly easier now, but that we also have to account for teams simply being smarter.

My argument is that I don't think it is accurate to just solely talk about "no defense"...
Yeah i agree with that. The rules definitely make it easier but not tothe degree that some people may say. What the top players like luka and harden are doing is still impressive. For most players the rules probably only account for 3-6 pts a game or so. For harden its probably a little more because of the way he manipulates the rules better than anyone.

[Kblaze8855]

Eh.

Big scoring nights just aren’t a story anymore.

I used to download and watch the entire game if someone had 60 just because it was history. I didn’t even see Hardens highlight till sports center got around to it this morning. I did watch them more in depth later when I got to my computer to setup my Redzone stream for the day but I had no urgency.

It’s just not something to care about anymore. And he made 16 shots so it’s not like it was someone just pouring it on. Combine that with a generally non entertaining play style? I can see why it’s not considered a big dea.

When Kobe was doing it I’d literally get texts and phone calls to get to a tv. It was exciting and visually appealing. Harden? I never even know about it till I get to ISH. There are no “Bean got 60!” texts.

Nobody makes a big deal of it where I can see so I can’t blame the media for not caring. They are reacting to the people.

I don’t think people are that blown away by today’s scoring explosions. We can argue about why all day....but it is what it is.

Kobe scores 65 my mom might actually call me about it. I’m not sure my mom knows who James Harden is.

He just isn’t a big deal to people for whatever reason.

[DMAVS41]

Yeah i agree with that. The rules definitely make it easier but not tothe degree that some people may say. What the top players like luka and harden are doing is still impressive. For most players the rules probably only account for 3-6 pts a game or so. For harden its probably a little more because of the way he manipulates the rules better than anyone.

Okay, but compared to when?

90's or early 00's? Yep.

A year post rules change like 2006? I'd disagree...don't see a good reason why Harden wouldn't be doing very similar things.

And just realized the 3-6 points per game claim. Again, just no. I get they are playing at a faster pace, but the offensive ratings are not even that different and it just isn't going to be that big of a gap. This is the exact type of thing I'm seeing...and it just isn't rooted in reality.

Teams are smarter now. 3 point shots are worth 3 points. The league was really slow to catch onto this. I was as well, but it is clearly more optimal to shoot more 3's than were shot in previous eras. I could see strong arguments saying that teams shoot too many now, but I don't think anyone thinks how few were shot in previous eras in the 80's or 90's was ever optimal based on the rules of the game.

[DMAVS41]

[QUOTE=Kblaze8855]Eh.

Big scoring nights just aren

[NBAGOAT]

Yeah i agree with that. The rules definitely make it easier but not tothe degree that some people may say. What the top players like luka and harden are doing is still impressive. For most players the rules probably only account for 3-6 pts a game or so. For harden its probably a little more because of the way he manipulates the rules better than anyone.

3-6 pts a game is massive for a whole season. You are definitely overestimating how much worse guys would be even from 01-04 which was a brutal era for scorers

[Ainosterhaspie]

I think if teams were as smart back in other eras as the are today in terms of really knowing what constitutes good and bad possessions...the offense would improve.



If teams in the 80's and 90's had known the true power of the 3 point line...I'd imagine the average offensive rating jumps up in a noticeable way...with the defensive rules staying exactly as they were.

I don't have the numbers, but the current teams have to be taking somewhere around 5-10 times the amount of 3's per game than at certain times. And that is just smart given that a 3 has the EV it does...

That is my point, I don't think we should completely write-off some of these offenses because teams have just flat out gotten smarter in terms of shot selection and how offense is played.
Totally agree. Until the"You can't pay defense today crowd" comes to terms with this simple fact, there can't be a realistic discussion on this topic. They want to ignore that offense is being played with smarter principles which would work in every era.

If offense is playing smarter it should be scoring more. Even if there was no change in rules, offense should look better. The fact that offense is not wildly out of sync with historical offense despite being played in a much smarter way tells me defense isn't as bad as people would have us believe.

Zone defense is legal now. It wasn't in the 90s. That's a bigger boost to defenses than the (alleged) loss of handchecking. Oh, are you 90s nostalgiacs going to tell me illegal defense wasn't enforced very tightly? Guess what. The handchecking ban is barely enforced today so I guess it's all even.

In today's game if you turn your back to the basket you're going to immediately get hand checked. If you face up, those hands are going to come off much of the time not because the defender is afraid of the handcheck call but because the defender is afraid of the rip through or a shot which is going to lead to a foul call and which would have led to a foul call in any era.

When players drive by defenders, the defender regularly puts his arm in on the body holding the player back from driving at full speed. It's supposed to be illegal but happens constantly. The handcheck ban supposedly was supposed to stop this, but players regularly get away with it.

Not all the rules changes are pro offense either. The Barkley backdown is illegal. I already mentioned zone defense being legalized. They are enforcing traveling more strictly as well as illegal screens and other off ball offensive fouls. For some reason the stat inflation crowd like to pretend noe of these changes have happened and that all the changes are pro offense.

It's not hard to see why though. The main motive is to protect the legacies of older players.

[Bronbron23]

3-6 pts a game is massive for a whole season. You are definitely overestimating how much worse guys would be even from 01-04 which was a brutal era for scorers
3 points a game is definitely realistic. The 6 was more for a few guys like harden who benefit a little more than others.

[SomeBlackDude]

They want to ignore that offense is being played with smarter principles which would work in every era.


explain why team usa finished 7th playing under fiba rules (closer to pre 2000s nba) just this past summer then. :lol

what happened to all those 70-80 points by the half scoreboards?

[DMAVS41]

3 points a game is definitely realistic. The 6 was more for a few guys like harden who benefit a little more than others.

Again, it depends on what era you are comparing a player to.

6 might be realistic for Harden if he was playing in the early 00's, but not in other eras.

Shit, the pace was about the same in the mid 80's...

And that goes without even mentioning that the offense today is just objectively smarter. Again, a 3 point shot is worth 3 points...players/teams didn't fully understand the ramifications of this in the other eras often being referenced here.

We don't just ignore that part of the equation. Or, at least we shouldn't.

Are Bird's stats inflated in 1985?

[Ainosterhaspie]

explain why team usa finished 7th playing under fiba rules (closer to pre 2000s nba) just this past summer then. :lol

what happened to all those 70-80 points by the half scoreboards?
Because we don't care about the FIBA tournament and out best players didn't go.

[Bronbron23]

Again, it depends on what era you are comparing a player to.

6 might be realistic for Harden if he was playing in the early 00's, but not in other eras.

Shit, the pace was about the same in the mid 80's...

And that goes without even mentioning that the offense today is just objectively smarter. Again, a 3 point shot is worth 3 points...players/teams didn't fully understand the ramifications of this in the other eras often being referenced here.

We don't just ignore that part of the equation.
Well im talking more 90's and 2000's and all u have to do is look at hardens playoff performances to know that he would struggle in more physicsl era's. The playoffs is as close as you'll get to how the game was played in the regular season in those era's and wouldn't you know thst harden scores about 6 points less and hes less efficient to boot.

And im not sure what you mean by offences being smarter. Again all they pretty much do now is set screens for open shots or run a bunch of pic and rolls. Its only more effective now because defenders arnt allowed fighting through screens to defend like they coukd in the past.

[egokiller]

Wilt and Bill Russell used to pick each other up at the airports when the other was in town for a game. I think we know when real rivalries began.

[DMAVS41]

Well im talking more 90's and 2000's and all u have to do is look at hardens playoff performances to know that he would struggle in more physicsl era's. The playoffs is as close as you'll get to how the game was played in the regular season in those era's and wouldn't you know thst harden scores about 6 points less and hes less efficient to boot.

And im not sure what you mean by offences being smarter. Again all they pretty much do now is set screens for open shots or run a bunch of pic and rolls. Its only more effective now because defenders arnt allowed fighting through screens to defend like they coukd in the past.

Again, some of this is true...and I've already agreed with it.

Yes, it is smarter to take more than the average 3.1 attempts per game that teams took from the 3 point line back in 1985 for example.

The average person isn't understanding just how suboptimal that is based on the math of the game. Do you disagree?

[SomeBlackDude]

Because we don't care about the FIBA tournament

:oldlol:

our fiba team was basically the celtics with other teams' stars thrown in.

an injury riddled celtics team is putting up 110 ppg (which is middle of the pack), but at fiba the celtics heavy only mustered 85 ppg and lost to france, australia, and finished 7th.

again, if the nba game today translated across all rules or era... why couldn't team usa beat some european sheep herders?


best players didn't go.

giannis won nba mvp and looked like an absolute scrub playing under fiba rules.

you should read this (https://www.sbnation.com/2019/9/10/20855719/giannis-antetotkounmpo-greece-fiba-world-cup-2019-its-ok). excellent analysis of a limited skills- =wise dude who terrorizes the modern nba getting a rude awakening when having to play against actual defense.

[QUOTE]Why was the best player in the world last season so ordinary in a signature international tournament? There are many answers to this question, but they all revolved around the same theme: [B]Antetokounmpo just isn